DOCSLIB.ORG

Country Garden

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Country Garden Thursday, September 17, 2015 China Merchants Securities (HK) Co., Ltd. Company Report Hong Kong Equity Research Country Garden (2007 HK) John So Hayden Zhang +852 3189 6357 +852 3189 6354 Weak growth amid slow recovery in Tier-3 cities [email protected] [email protected] ■ We remain cautious on CG’s contracted sales pick-up in Tier-3 cities. Barring massive promotion incentives, we think CG could WHAT’S NEW miss its annual sales target by 5% TP/EPS revised ■ Factoring in slower price and sales volume recovery in Tier-3 cities, we estimate only 3% core EPS CAGR in FY14-17E NEUTRAL ■ Maintain NEUTRAL and trimmed TP to HK$2.7 (from HK$3.2) Previous NEUTRAL Expect little improvements in contracted sales We noted that CG’s sales progress remained weak in Jul/Aug with 8M15 Price HK$2.73 contracted sales at RMB71.4 bn or -2% YoY. We think it would either miss 12-month Target Price HK$2.7 (-1%) its annual sales target of RMB132 bn or CG has to offer massive (Potential downside) promotion incentives or direct price cut in order to boost contracted sales in the remaining 4 months of the year (implying RMB15 bn monthly sales Previous HKD3.2 in Sep-Dec/15, which appears challenging). CG’s recent decision to Price Performance actively add landbanks in Tier-1/2 cities also implies a weak prospect in Tier-3 city projects. We estimate FY15E contracted sales at RMB125 bn, CG 2007 MSCI China/real Estate 50% 5% lower than its own target. 40% 30% FY15/16E earnings forecasts revised by +1%/-7% 20% 10% For FY16E, we lower project completion GFA and ASP estimates 0% considering the below-expectation progress in contracted sales. We also -10% incorporate the negative impact of Malaysian Ringgit depreciation against -20% -30% RMB on Malaysia Danga Bay project. Overall, we revise FY15/16E Sep/14 Oct/14 Dec/14 Jan/15 Mar/15 Apr/15 May/15 Jul/15 Aug/15 earnings by +1%/-7% (FY15E up slightly 1% mainly due to lower selling Source: Capital IQ expense estimates under lower contracted sales). Despite continued % 1m 6m 12m 2007 HK (7.2) (7.8) (14.8) landbank expansion and increased borrowings, CG will only see 3% core MSCI China/real (9.4) (12.0) (10.1) EPS CAGR in FY14-17E, based on our forecast. Our FY15E/16E estate earnings are 5.7%/6.8% below Bloomberg consensus. Lack of catalysts and weak growth prospects Industry: Property Hang Seng Index 21967 The stock looks unappealing on unexciting contracted sales and earnings HSCEI 9905 growth. We trimmed TP to HK$2.7, based on 46% (previous: 40%) Key Data discount to our lowered end-FY15 NAV of HK$5.0/share (previous: 52-week range (HK$) 2.38-4.55 HK$5.4/share), equivalent to 1SD below 6-year historical mean, a similar Market cap (HK$ mn) 61,665 level as the sector average. We think stock could see further downside if Avg. daily volume (mn) 42.28 the coming contracted sales continues to be disappointing. BVPS (HK$) at FY15 y.e. 3.6 Shareholdings Structure Financials Yang’s Family 53.6% RMB mn 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E Ping An Insurance 9.9% Yang Erzhu 7.0% Revenue 62,724 84,549 107,021 108,598 108,261 Free float 29.5% Revenue growth (%) 50% 35% 27% 1% 0% Core net profit 8,001 9,081 9,460 10,673 11,695 Related Research Core profit growth (%) 18% 13% 4% 13% 10% Country Garden (2007 HK) - Continuous margin pressure in FY15E; d/g to NEUTRAL, March 12, 2015 Core EPS (HK$) 0.53 0.58 0.52 0.58 0.63 Country Garden (2007 HK) - Awaiting for re-rating catalysts, June Net gearing (%) 64% 62% 68% 59% 48% 25, 2015 P/E (core EPS) 5.1x 4.7x 5.2x 4.7x 4.3x Country Garden (2007 HK) - Lack positive earnings drivers in P/B 0.9x 0.8x 0.8x 0.7x 0.6x 2H15, Aug 20, 2015 Dividend yield 7.8% 6.8% 5.3% 6.3% 6.9% Sources: Company data, CMS (HK) estimates Please see penultimate page for additional important disclosures. China Merchants Securities (CMS) is a foreign broker-dealer unregistered in the USA. CMS research is prepared by research analysts who are not registered in the USA. CMS research is distributed in the USA pursuant to Rule 15a-6 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 solely by Rosenblatt Securities, an SEC registered and FINRA-member broker-dealer. 1 Thursday, September 17, 2015 Focus Charts Figure 1: Large developers’ contracted sales in 8M15 Figure 2: CG’s Contracted sales (2012-2017E) 8M15 YoY growth RMB mn YoY chg 140,000 140% Company Ticker (RMB mn) (%) 120% CR Land 1109 HK 56,590 54% 120,000 100% Gemdale 600383 CH 32,500 38% 100,000 80% Evergrande 3333 HK 117,520 31% 80,000 Poly Real Estate 600048 CH 98,109 22% 60% 60,000 China Vanke 000002 CH 156,060 21% 40% 40,000 Greentown China 3900 HK 43,400 15% 20% Longfor 960 HK 30,120 7% 20,000 0% Agile 3383 HK 26,610 0% - -20% FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E Country Garden 2007 HK 71,380 -2% Total YoY change Shimao 813 HK 39,789 -9% Sources: Bloomberg, CMS (HK) Sources: Company data, CMS (HK) Figure 3: Revenue and core net profit growth Figure 4: Net gearing 60% Net gearing (%) 70% 50% 65% 40% 60% 30% 55% 20% 50% 10% 45% 0% 40% 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E -10% 35% 30% Revenue Core net profit 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E Sources: Company data, CMS (HK) Sources: Company data, CMS (HK) Figure 5: Interest coverage Figure 6: Landbank (GFA) at 2014 year-end (x) Malaysia, Tier-1 4.0 2% city, 2% Tier-2 3.5 city, 5% 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 Tier-3 1.0 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E city, 90% Source: CMS (HK) Sources: Company data, CMS (HK) Note: Operating profit / total interest (including the capitalized portion) To access our research reports on the Bloomberg terminal, type CMHK <GO> 2 Thursday, September 17, 2015 Contracted sales review Not seen any star projects from new launches It achieved 123% YoY contracted sales growth in year 2013 thanks to the successful launch of a series of new projects, including huge contribution from Malaysia Danga Bay (RMB6.8 bn), Huizhou Ten Miles Beach (RMB2.9 bn) and Shenyang Galaxy Palace (RMB5.1 bn). However, in 2015, we do not see CG successfully add any new star projects to make significant contributions to contracted sales. We believe CG should have just 3-4 projects (total new launches around 50 projects in 2015) probably reaching about RMB2 bn in 2015. The old projects sales in slowing progress Meanwhile, we are concerned about the slowing contracted sales progress of CG’s typical projects in Tier-3 cities. It experienced a decline in contracted sales contribution from RMB772 mn in 2013 to RMB511 mn in 2014 on a per project basis. We estimate it is further slowing down to about RMB400 mn/project in FY15E. Thus, it resulted in a faster growth in PUD and inventories than contracted sales. That implied a slower asset turnover and weaker cashflows. Figure 7: Country Garden contracted sales breakdown 2012 2013 2014 2015E No. of new projects launching 18 37 77 50 Contracted sales from new projects (RMB mn) 9,600 28,800 41,400 30,000 Average contracted sales per project (RMB mn) 533 778 538 600 No. of existing projects 90 100 171 238 Contracted sales from existing projects (RMB mn) 38,000 77,200 87,400 95,200 Average contracted sales per project (RMB mn) 422 772 511 400 Total 47,600 106,000 128,800 125,200 Sources: Company, CMS (HK) Figure 7.1: Country Garden contracted sales vs PUD changes in 2011-2017E 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E PUD and inventory growth (%) 38% 23% 52% 37% 16% 13% 17% Contracted sales growth (%) 24% 10% 123% 22% -3% 3% 3% Contracted sales YoY chg (Rmb mn) (1) 8,238 4,400 58,400 22,800 (3,800) 3,750 3,863 PUD & inventories YoY chg (Rmb mn) (2) 18,559 15,555 43,121 47,362 27,655 26,466 38,298 Net change (1) - (2) (10,321) (11,155) 15,279 (24,562) (31,455) (22,716) (34,436) Sources: Company, CMS (HK) To access our research reports on the Bloomberg terminal, type CMHK <GO> 3 Thursday, September 17, 2015 Figure 8: Changes in P&L estimates FY15E FY16E FY17E (RMB mn) Original New chg (%) Original New chg (%) Original New chg (%) Revenue 106,767 107,021 0% 110,789 108,598 -2% 112,624 108,261 -4% Cost of goods sold (82,643) (82,996) 0% (83,774) (83,663) 0% (82,879) (81,528) -2% Gross Profit 24,123 24,025 0% 27,015 24,935 -8% 29,745 26,733 -10% General & admin expense (3,245) (3,141) -3% (3,455) (3,193) -8% (3,558) (3,289) -8% Selling expense (4,549) (4,180) -8% (4,736) (4,378) -8% (4,878) (4,509) -8% Interest Expense (435) (435) 0% (461) (461) 0% (482) (482) 0% Interest Income 214 214 0% 280 280 0% 280 280 0% JCE & Associate items (17) (17) 0% 0 0 n.a. 0 0 n.a. Others 183 (1,097) -699% 0 0 n.a.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Poly Property Group Co., Limited 保利置業集團有限公司 (Incorporated in Hong Kong with Limited Liability) (Stock Code: 119)
    Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited and The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited take no responsibility for the contents of this announcement, make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness and expressly disclaim any liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from or in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this announcement. Poly Property Group Co., Limited 保利置業集團有限公司 (Incorporated in Hong Kong with limited liability) (Stock code: 119) RESULTS ANNOUNCEMENT FOR THE YEAR ENDED 31ST DECEMBER, 2017 RESULTS The directors (the “Directors”) of Poly Property Group Co., Limited (the “Company”) presented the audited consolidated financial statements of the Company and its subsidiaries (the “Group”) for the year ended 31st December, 2017, together with the independent auditor’s report issued by BDO Limited, as follows: – 1 – INDEPENDENT AUDITOR’S REPORT TO THE MEMBERS OF POLY PROPERTY GROUP CO., LIMITED (incorporated in Hong Kong with limited liability) Opinion We have audited the consolidated financial statements of Poly Property Group Co., Limited and its subsidiaries (together “the Group”) set out on pages 9 to 120, which comprise the consolidated statement of financial position as at 31st December, 2017, the consolidated statement of profit or loss, the consolidated statement of comprehensive income, the consolidated statement of changes in equity and the consolidated statement of cash flows for the year then ended and notes to the consolidated financial statements, including a summary of significant accounting policies. In our opinion, the consolidated financial statements give a true and fair view of the consolidated financial position of the Group as at 31st December, 2017 and of its consolidated financial performance and its consolidated cash flows for the year then ended in accordance with Hong Kong Financial Reporting Standards (“HKFRSs”) issued by the Hong Kong Institute of Certified Public Accountants (“HKICPA”) and have been properly prepared in compliance with the Hong Kong Companies Ordinance.
    [Show full text]
  • Pengyuan Credit Rating (Hong Kong) Co.,Ltd
    Property China Credit profiles to improve on lower land acquisitions and solid sales Contents Summary Summary ............................................ 1 Overall policy stance on property industry remains unchanged: we expect the Chinese governments will continue its tight control policies on Property sales ..................................... 2 property industry in 2019 to avoid unwanted overheating in the industry. In Land acquisition .................................. 4 our view, the governments will continue to clamp down the shadow banking financing in the industry and encourage the credit growth through more Property funding ................................. 6 regulated financing channels. On the other hand, with property price under Working capital efficiency ................... 7 control and inventory came off from its peak, a further severe tightening on the industry is unlikely, in our opinion. Industry consolidation ......................... 8 Residential property sales momentum likely to continue but at a slightly Profitability and Cash Flow ................. 9 softer pace: residential property sales value was better than the market Leverage .......................................... 10 expected in the first nine months of 2018, with property sales value rising 16% year over year, according to National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). We Sampled Property Issuers ................ 11 expect to see residential property sales value to grow around 10-15% in the Glossary ........................................... 13 fourth quarter of 2018, and continue to grow at around 10% in 2019, with 3- 4% growth in sales volume and 5-6% growth in average selling price (ASP). Land acquisitions to slow down further and market sentiment unlikely to rebound: we expect the land acquisition activities to continue slow down noticeably in 2019, with the land sale value to grow at around low teen level over the next 12 months.
    [Show full text]
  • At the Forefront of China Property Dec 31, 2020
    December 31, 2020 December Issue At the Forefront of China Property Opportunities emerging in Property Management Sector We believe value is emerging among small cap property management China Property companies. We believe Aoyuan Healthy Life is underappreciated by the Coverage Summary market, especially considering the recent completion of their major M&A Ticker Name Rating 0832.HK Central China Buy of the year (Easy Life). For Property Developers, Powerlong, Yuzhou and 3883.HK China Aoyuan Buy Redsun under our coverage have already achieved >96% of sales target. 1238.HK Powerlong Buy 3662.HK Aoyuan Healthy Life Buy Valuations Diverging among Property Management Companies 9983.HK Central China New Life Buy The flurry of new listings of property management companies in the last 2 0035.HK Far East Buy months have seen a major correction in the property management sector. 0017.HK New World Dev Buy Sector’s valuation has now retreated to 24.5x 12M Fwd P/E, below the 3-year 1996.HK Redsun Buy 1628.HK Yuzhou Buy historical mean. We believe market is struggling to differentiate the value 0095.HK LVGEM Buy proposition of different names and thus been sticking to large cap companies 6111.HK Dafa Hold backed by big name developers. This has resulted in a widening valuation gap 0230.HK Minmetals Hold between large-cap (47.7x P/E) and small-cap companies (19.5x P/E), offering Source: Company data, AMTD Research attractive investment opportunities. Fundamentals of some of these small-cap property management companies are unchanged, and the annual results in 30-city GFA growth momentum declined '000 sqm 30-city 7-day moving sum of GFA sold and YoY March 2021 will be positive catalysts to drive a re-rating, in our view.
    [Show full text]
  • At the Forefront of China Property Fully Recovered from COVID-19, Back to the New Normal
    November 27, 2020 November Issue At the Forefront of China Property Fully Recovered From COVID-19, Back to the New Normal We believe the property industry has fully recovered from the COVID-19 China Property impact by all measures. Property austerity measures such as price Coverage Summary restrictions, financing restrictions will limit growth and profitability, but Ticker Name Rating 0832.HK Central China Buy the industry is generating healthy cash flows which we believe is positive 3883.HK China Aoyuan Buy for credit. Aoyuan, Powerlong and CCRE are our top picks of the sector. 1238.HK Powerlong Buy 3662.HK Aoyuan Healthy Life Buy Returning back to the Property Austerity New Normal 9983.HK Central China New Life Buy We believe the termination of reorganization between Evergrande (3333 HK, 0035.HK Far East Buy NR) and Shenzhen Real Estate (000029 SZ, NR) during the past month 0017.HK New World Dev Buy reinforces the policy stance to contain developers’ debt and equity financing to 1996.HK Redsun Buy 1628.HK Yuzhou Buy prevent an overheated property market. Moreover, we have also noted that 0095.HK LVGEM Buy some cities have also tightened regulations on pre-approved new home prices 6111.HK Dafa Hold and pre-sale requirements to curb price growth momentum. This has resulted 0230.HK Minmetals Hold in 70-city new residential property price MoM growth to narrow to 0.2% in Nov Source: Company data, AMTD Research from 0.3% in Oct and 0.6% in Sep. YTD industry FCF YoY growth recorded positive Industry has fully recovered from COVID-19 impact 2017-2020 FCF YTD YoY 400% YTD industry cash flow YoY growth has returned to positive (+2.0%) for the 300% first time this year amid the pick-up in national contracted sales.
    [Show full text]
  • Finance Project
    MASTER OF SCIENCE IN FINANCE MASTERS FINAL WORK PROJECT EQUITY RESEARCH: CHINA VANKE CO., LTD SANG JINLAMU APRIL 2019 MASTER OF SCIENCE IN FINANCE MASTERS FINAL WORK PROJECT EQUITY RESEARCH: CHINA VANKE CO., LTD SANG JINLAMU SUPERVISOR: JOÃO CARVALHO DAS NEVES APRIL 2019 Abstract The Residential Housing Market in China has more than 30 years of development history. Due to the reform and liberalization in 1980’s, Deng Xiaoping started to define real estate as commodity in China. In 1987, Shenzhen conducted the first public land auction, symbolizing the official commercialization of Chinese real estate. Vanke, one year later, entered the real estate industry. After more than 20 years, it has become the largest residential developer in China, and is known as the “city real estate and service provider”. From Vanke, we can see the epitome of development of all Chinese real estate companies. The economic downturn and the changing world pattern are the major concerns for Chinese real estate developers in the recent years. These concerns are reflected by Vanke, which is the reason why I choose Vanke for Master Final Work equity research. This report adopts the research report format recommended by the CFA Institute. The full text includes 8 parts including Research Snapshot, Business Description and Management and Corporate Governance. It analyzes finance and management of Vanke in the past four years and forecasts the operations for the next five years. Generally, Vanke's operational development is stable. Persisting in high asset turnover strategy, it has about 20% ROE on the period analyzed. In terms of leverage, in the past two years, Vanke has increased its debt level from 16.36% to 17.09%.
    [Show full text]
  • Annual Report
    保利物業服務股份有限公司 POLY PROPERTY SERVICES CO., LTD. (A joint stock company incorporated in the People’s Republic of China with limited liability) Stock Code: 06049. HK ANNUAL REPORT 3 Company Overview CONTENTS 4 Corporate Information 6 Financial Summary 8 Major Events in 2020 10 Awards and Honours 12 Chairman’s Statement 16 Management Discussion and Analysis 35 Directors, Supervisors and Senior Management 43 Corporate Governance Report 57 Report of the Board of Directors 81 Report of the Supervisory Committee 84 Independent Auditor’s Report 90 Consolidated Statements of Profit or Loss and Other Comprehensive Income 91 Consolidated Statements of Financial Position 93 Consolidated Statements of Changes in Equity 95 Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows 96 Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements 187 Five Year Financial Summary COMPANY OVERVIEW Poly Property Services Co., Ltd. (the “Company” or “Poly Property”, and together with its subsidiaries, the “Group” or “we”) is a leading comprehensive property management service provider in China with extensive property management scale and state- owned background, ranking the third among the listed property management companies according to the List of Top Ten Listed Property Management Companies in 2020 released by the China Property Management Institute (“CPMI”). With high-quality services and brand strength, we have enjoyed an industry-wide reputation. Our brand was valued at more than RMB12.2 billion in 2020. The Group’s three main business lines, namely, property management services, value-added services to non-property owners, and community value-added services, form a comprehensive service offering to its customers along the value chain of property management. As of 31 December 2020, the Group has entered 184 cities in 29 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities across the country, and recorded a gross floor area (“GFA”) under management of approximately 380.1 million sq.m.
    [Show full text]
  • Evergrande Real Estate Group Ltd SW 3 July 2014
    Evergrande Real Estate Group Ltd SW 3 July 2014 Evergrande – House of cards Company Name: Evergrande Rating: SELL (-23%) Last close: HKD 3.08 Target Price: HKD 2.50 Real Estate Group Ltd Bbg Ticker: 3333 HK Evergrande is among China’s largest property developers – ranking first by saleable area as it has historically relied on volume and low prices to expand aggressively. We note that short-seller Citron Research alleged Evergrande of fraud in 2012, but the claims were vigorously refuted and Evergrande went to record over 40% bottomline growth in FY13. However, as the China residential property market starts to slow down alongside the Last close: HKD 3.08 economy, exacerbated by tight credit and home ownership restrictions, we think Target Price: HKD 2.50 (-23%) Evergrande, as the largest and most indebted, will be most at risk. Additionally, questionable management decisions raise more red flags than a Communist parade: Rating: Sell (1-year period) Stunning cash outflows on negative FCF guidance. An 18% HKD3bn dividend comprising 71% of earnings while guiding negative free cash flow for FY14; share repurchases totaling HKD3bn and purchase of a stake in Huaxia Bank for ~HKD1bn. Market Cap (USDm): 5,814 Veteran management selling shares and leaving the company. CEO Xie Haijun Avg 3M daily value traded sold 68m shares, his first sale since joining the Board in 2007; Li Gang, the vice- Chairman, resigned effective May 1 and sold 33m shares in April after a 8-year (USDm/day): 16.8 tenure; Lai Lixin resigned as Executive Director in February. In contrast, according to Evergrande’s annual reports, there were no management changes in 2010-2013 Shares outstanding (m): 14,630 during the previous property downcycle.
    [Show full text]
  • Tracker Fund of Hong Kong
    LIPPO FUND SERIES LIPPO SELECT HK & MAINLAND PROPERTY ETF SEMI-ANNUAL FINANCIAL STATEMENTS (UNAUDITED) FOR THE SIX MONTHS ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2020 LIPPO FUND SERIES LIPPO SELECT HK & MAINLAND PROPERTY ETF Contents Pages Administration and management 1 Report of the Manager 2 Statement of net assets (Unaudited) 3 Statement of comprehensive income (Unaudited) 4 Statement of changes in net assets attributable to unitholders (Unaudited) 5 Notes to the Financial Statements (Unaudited) 6 Investment portfolio (Unaudited) 7-8 Statement of movements in investment portfolio (Unaudited) 9-10 IMPORTANT: Any opinion expressed herein reflects the Manager’s view only and is subject to change. For more information about the Lippo Fund Series, please refer to the prospectus of the Lippo Fund Series which is available at our website: http://lippoetf.com/index.php/fund-info/. Investors should not rely on the information contained in this report for their investment decisions. LIPPO FUND SERIES LIPPO SELECT HK & MAINLAND PROPERTY ETF ADMINISTRATION AND MANAGEMENT Manager Service Agent Lippo Investments Management Limited HK Conversion Agency Services Limited 40/F, Tower Two 8/F, Two Exchange Square Lippo Centre, 89 Queensway 8 Connaught Place Hong Kong Central, Hong Kong Website: http://www.lippo-im.com Legal Adviser to the Manager Directors of the Manager King & Wood Mallesons Bruce Cheung Heung Wing 13th Floor, Gloucester Tower David Ng Tai Chiu The Landmark, 15 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong Trustee BOCI-Prudential Trustee Limited Participating Dealers
    [Show full text]
  • China Aoyuan Property Group Ltd: Land Replenishing Bottleneck
    August 15, 2017 08:00 PM GMT MORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+ China Aoyuan Property Group Ltd Jeffrey Zeng EQUITY ANALYST [email protected] +852 2848-1955 Land Replenishing Bottleneck; John Lam, CFA EQUITY ANALYST [email protected] +852 2848-5412 Initiate at EW Leif Chang EQUITY ANALYST [email protected] +852 2848-5973 Stock Rating Industry View Price Target Sara Wang RESEARCH ASSOCIATE Equal-weight Attractive HK$3.30 [email protected] +852 2239-1230 China Aoyuan Property Group Ltd ( 3883.HK, 3883 We think Aoyuan will struggle to maintain its revenue scale HK ) and margins in the long term as it lacks an edge in land China Property / China Stock Rating Equal-weight sourcing and its landbank is scattered across 28 cities. But in Industry View Attractive Price target HK$3.30 the short term, strong sales and earnings growth should Up/downside to price target (%) 9 Shr price, close (Aug 14, 2017) HK$3.03 support the share price. 52-Week Range HK$3.55-1.61 Sh out, dil, curr (mn) 2,672 Mkt cap, curr (mn) Rmb6,896 Sales target of Rmb50bn by 2018 is achievable, but a lack of landbanking EV, curr (mn) Rmb21,048 Avg daily trading value (mn) HK$11 channels will limit further expansion: Given Aoyuan's high attributable ratio of Fiscal Year Ending 12/16 12/17e 12/18e 12/19e 92%, we believe its current landbank of 14.7mn sqm or Rmb150bn in saleable ModelWare EPS (Rmb) 0.38 0.52 0.63 0.74 resources is enough to support the company's Rmb50bn attributable sales Consensus EPS (Rmb)§ 0.38 0.48 0.64 0.87 target in 2018 (50% YoY growth).
    [Show full text]
  • Stoxx® China Total Market Index
    STOXX® CHINA TOTAL MARKET INDEX Components1 Company Supersector Country Weight (%) CHINA CONSTRUCTION BANK CORP H Banks CN 9.86 ICBC H Banks CN 7.26 China Mobile Ltd. Telecommunications CN 7.16 PING AN INSUR GP CO. OF CN 'H' Insurance CN 6.57 BANK OF CHINA 'H' Banks CN 4.79 China Life Insurance Co 'H' Insurance CN 2.97 CNOOC Ltd. Oil & Gas CN 2.89 China Petroleum & Chemical 'H' Oil & Gas CN 2.33 BOC Hong Kong (Holdings) Ltd. Banks CN 2.33 China Merchants Bank Co Ltd'H' Banks CN 1.93 PetroChina Co Ltd 'H' Oil & Gas CN 1.89 AGRICULTURAL BANK OF CHINA 'H' Banks CN 1.71 China Overseas Land & Investme Real Estate CN 1.53 CHINA PAC.IN.(GROUP) 'H' Insurance CN 1.51 CITIC LTD. Industrial Goods & Services CN 1.15 CHINA SHENHUA EN. 'H' Basic Resources CN 1.08 PICC P&C 'H' Insurance CN 1.07 China Unicom (Hong Kong) Ltd. Telecommunications CN 1.05 China Resources Land Ltd. Real Estate CN 0.98 China Mengniu Dairy Co. Ltd. Food & Beverage CN 0.97 POSTAL SAVINGS BOC.'H' Banks CN 0.93 BRILLIANCE CHINA AUTV. HDG. Automobiles & Parts CN 0.91 China Telecom Corp Ltd 'H' Telecommunications CN 0.83 NEW CHINA LIFE INSURANCE 'H' Insurance CN 0.76 CHINA CITIC BANK 'H' Banks CN 0.76 BYD 'H' Automobiles & Parts CN 0.75 CHINA MINSHENG BANKING H Banks CN 0.73 Bank of Communications Co 'H' Banks CN 0.70 ANHUI CONCH CEMENT H Construction & Materials CN 0.69 China Taiping Insurance Holdin Insurance CN 0.68 CHINA RESOURCES BEER (HLDG) Industrial Goods & Services CN 0.67 CHINA VANKE 'H' Real Estate CN 0.63 China Communictn 'H' Construction & Materials CN 0.63 CHINA HUARONG ASTMGMT.
    [Show full text]
  • Financial Analysis
    CFA Institute Research Challenge hosted by The Chinese University of Hong Kong CUHK Business School LEE, Chun Ho Angus [email protected] November 7, 2013 Financials (GICS) | Real Estate NG, Sheung Yiu Boris [email protected] Top Spring International (3688 HK) TSE, Pui Kei Peggy [email protected] Buy YIP, Tsz Chung Alan [email protected] Small-cap dark horse in real estate with solid growth engine We initiate coverage with a Buy rating and HK$4.29 target price, Key Data which offers a 34% potential upside. We believe Top Spring is a solid small-cap pick with a visible high-growth path over the next Bloomberg: 3688 HK Reuters: 3688.HK few years and a pragmatic management team. We see multiple China Real Estate positives including the strategic focus in project selection, fast Price target HK$4.29 asset turnover and low land cost. We forecast a 20.4% earnings Up/downside to price target (%) 34% CAGR over FY12-15E, and a strong 40.8% yoy contracted sales Share price, close (Nov 6, 2013) HK$3.20 growth that is highly achievable in FY13E. 52-Week Range HK$3.03 - 6.72 Share outstanding, diluted, current (m) 1,155.30 Strategic edges in location and land cost Market capitalization, current (m) HK$3,697 EV, current (m) HK$15,975 Specialized in the development of urban mixed-use communities Average daily trading value (m) 1.13 and highlighting the proximity to high speed railway network, Top Spring’s strategic focus brings strong appreciation potential and Price Performance convenience premium for pricing.
    [Show full text]
  • Asian Property Developers Focus on Market Leaders
    Building on principles One-Asia Research | August 12, 2020 Asian Property Developers Focus on market leaders Yongdai Park Le Quang Minh Tran Tuan Long [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] This publication was prepared by Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. and/or its non-U.S. affiliates (“Mirae Asset Daewoo”). Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith from sources deemed to be reliable. However, the information has not been independently verified. Mirae Asset Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation, or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy, or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Mirae Asset Daewoo accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Information and opin- ions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is for informational purposes only. It is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any securities or other financial instruments. This document may not be reproduced, further distributed, or published in whole or in part for any purpose. Please see important disclosures & disclaimers in Appendix 1 at the end of this report. August 7, 2020 Asian Property Developers CONTENTS I. Executive summary 3 II. Asian property developers: Peer comparison tables 5 III. Vietnamese housing market: Led by Vingroup 9 Strong demand growth 9 Rise of the mid-end housing segment 12 Stabilization of housing market via selective supply control 14 Low/mid-end housing affordable for Vietnam’s middle class 15 Middle-class homeownership scenarios 17 Vietnamese company analysis 19 Vinhomes (VHM VN) 20 Vingroup (VIC VN) 34 IV.
    [Show full text]