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Climate Change and Road Safety: Projections Within Urban Areas

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Climate Change and Road Safety: Projections Within Urban Areas Transportation Association of Canada Climate Change and Road Safety: Projections within Urban Areas May 2013 DISCLAIMER The material presented in this text was carefully researched and presented. However, no warranty expressed or implied is made on the accuracy of the contents or their extraction from reference to publications; nor shall the fact of distribution constitute responsibility by TAC or any researchers or contributors for omissions, errors or possible misrepresenta- tions that may result from use of interpretation of the material contained herein. Copyright 2013 by Transportation Association of Canada 2323 St. Laurent Blvd. Ottawa, ON K1G 4J8 Tel. (613) 736-1350 ~ Fax (613) 736-1395 www.tac-atc.ca ISBN 978-1-55187-509-5 TAC REPORT DOCUMENTATION FORM Title and Subtitle Climate Change and Road Safety: Projections Within Urban Areas Report Date Coordinating Agency and Address ITRD No. May 2013 Transportation Association of Canada 2323 St. Laurent Boulevard Ottawa, ON K1G 4J8 Author(s) Corporate Affiliation(s) and Address(es) Jean Andrey, Derrick Hambly University of Waterloo, Department of Geography Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1 Diane Chaumont, Maja Rapaic Ouranos 550, Sherbrooke Ouest, 19e étage, Tour Ouest Montréal, QC H3A 1B9 Abstract Keywords Weather creates hazardous conditions of various types that increase the risk for Environment road users. By examining the occurrence of weather-related hazards today and Accident Statistics by projecting such occurrences into the future, the report documents the ways in which climate change may affect road safety. • accident • Climate change will not affect all parts of Canada in identical ways. The study analysis (math) provides detailed analysis for selected urban areas, and considers how climate • collision change affects them in varying ways and to varying extents. • forecast • risk The two objectives for the study were to: • risk assessment 1. identify projected weather change trends; and • safety 2. identify the collision trends as a result of the weather change. • statistics • urban area The magnitude of associated risks is based on statistical estimates of the extent • variability to which road safety is compromised during weather. Some motor vehicle • collision types also may be affected by climate change. To gain insight into this weather issue, collision attributes are compared during precipitation versus mostly dry, seasonal conditions. In this way, we identify the types of motor vehicle collisions that are over-represented during inclement weather. We then combine this information with projections of climate change in order to identify collision subsets that could be most affected by climate change. The continued importance of inclement weather for road safety outcomes in Canadian cities is highlighted within the report. The report documents the ways in which climate change may affect road safety, estimates the magnitude of associated risks, and identifies which motor vehicle collision types could be most affected by climate change and where they will take place in the future. Supplementary Information FORMULAIRE DE DOCUMENTATION – RAPPORT DE L’ATC Titre et sous-titre Changements climatiques et sécurité routière : perspectives urbaines Date du rapport Agence de coordination et adresse ITRD n° May 2013 Association des transports du Canada 2323, boul. Saint-Laurent Ottawa, ON K1G 4J8 Autuer(s) Affilliation(s) Jean Andrey, Derrick Hambly Université de Waterloo, Département de géographie Waterloo (ON) N2L 3G1 Diane Chaumont, Maja Rapaic Ouranos 550, Sherbrooke Ouest, 19e étage, Tour Ouest Montréal (QC) H3A 1B9 Résumé Mots clés Les mauvaises conditions météorologiques augmentent le risque pour les usagers de la Environnement route. En examinant les dangers découlant des conditions météorologiques actuelles et Statistiques d'accidents en effectuant des projections pour les années à venir, le rapport indique comment les changements climatiques peuvent influer sur la sécurité routière. • accident Les changements climatiques n’affecteront pas toutes les régions du Canada de la même • analyse façon. L’analyse détaillée de cette étude repose sur les données des centres urbains (mathématique) sélectionnés, et considère l’impact des changements climatiques de façons différentes et à des niveaux variés. • collision • risque Les deux objectifs de l’étude comportaient : • risque évaluation 1. l’identification des tendances liées aux changements des conditions • météorologiques; et sécurité 2. l’identification des tendances liées aux collisions résultant des changements des • statistiques conditions météorologiques. • urbaines • variabilité L’importance des risques connexes repose sur des estimations statistiques dans la mesure où la sécurité routière est comprise lorsque certaines conditions météorologiques sont présentes. Certaines collisions routières peuvent également être affectées par les changements climatiques. Afin d’obtenir plus d’information, les éléments de collisions sont comparés durant les périodes de précipitations versus les conditions saisonnières sans précipitation. De cette façon, nous identifions les collisions routières qui sont surreprésentées en présence de mauvaises conditions météorologiques. Les projections de changements climatiques sont ensuite combinées à cette information afin d’identifier les sous-ensembles qui pourraient être affectés par les changements climatiques. Le rapport souligne que les mauvaises conditions météorologiques ont un effet négatif continu sur les résultats en matière de sécurité routière dans les villes canadiennes. Il indique les façons dont les changements climatiques peuvent influer sur la sécurité routière, évalue l’importance des risques connexes et identifie les types de collisions routières qui sont le plus grandement affectées par les changements climatiques dans les années à venir. Information complémentaire Climate Change and Road Safety: Projections within Urban Areas Acknowledgements The development of the Climate Change and Road Safety: Projections Within Urban Areas document was undertaken with funding provided by several agencies. TAC gratefully acknowledges the following funding partners for their contribution to the project. • British Columbia Ministry of Transportation • City of Calgary • Ministère des transports du Québec • City of Moncton • Ville de Montréal • Nova Scotia Department of Transportation and Infrastructure • Ontario Ministry of Transportation • Translink May 2013 i Climate Change and Road Safety: Projections within Urban Areas Project Steering Committee Susan Nichol, Chair David Johnson Ontario Ministry of Transportation Ministère des Transports du Québec Shelley Alexander Nam Nguyen City of Calgary British Columbia Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure Nancy Badeau Boyka Pachova Ville de Montréal Ontario Ministry of Transportation Margaret Gibbs Joy Sengupta TransLink British Columbia Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure Advisors Geni Bahar Sébastian Labonté NAVIGATS INC. CIMA+ Project Manager Craig Stackpole Transportation Association of Canada Project Consultants Jean Andrey Diane Chaumont University of Waterloo Ouranos Derrick Hambley Maja Rapaic University of Waterloo Ouranos The authors wish to acknowledge the contributions of government agencies that provided data that were essential for this project: Environment Canada for the provision of weather data and Transport Canada and the Ministère des transports Québec for the provision of collision data. ii May 2013 Climate Change and Road Safety: Projections within Urban Areas Table of Contents Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................................................ i List of Figures ............................................................................................................................................... v List of Tables ............................................................................................................................................... vi Executive summary ....................................................................................................................................... 1 1 Introduction/problem statement ............................................................................................................ 9 2 Literature review ................................................................................................................................. 11 2.1 The physical hazards of weather ............................................................................................. 11 2.2 Weather-related safety outcomes ............................................................................................ 14 2.3 Driver adaptations to weather ................................................................................................. 16 2.4 Implications of winter road maintenance for road safety ........................................................ 16 2.5 Climate change and road safety .............................................................................................. 17 2.6 20th century observed precipitation trends ............................................................................. 18 2.7 Climate change projections ..................................................................................................... 20 2.7.1 Changes in mean precipitation 20 2.7.2 Changes in precipitation extremes 20 2.7.3 Impacts of changes in precipitation
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