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Development of GVRD Precipitation Scenarios Development of GVRD Precipitation Scenarios Final Report October 2002 DEVELOPMENT OF GVRD PRECIPITATION SCENARIOS FINAL REPORT OCTOBER 2002 GREATER VANCOUVER REGIONAL DISTRICT STATEMENT OF LIMITATIONS This document has been prepared by Kerr Wood Leidal Associates Limited (KWL) for the exclusive use and benefit of the Greater Vancouver Regional District. No other party is entitled to rely on any of the conclusions, data, opinions, or any other information contained in this document. This document represents KWL’s best professional judgement based on the information available at the time of its completion and as appropriate for the project scope of work. Services performed in developing the content of this document have been conducted in a manner consistent with that level and skill ordinarily exercised by members of the engineering profession currently practising under similar conditions. No warranty, expressed or implied, is made. COPYRIGHT NOTICE These materials (text, tables, figures and drawings included herein) are copyright of the Greater Vancouver Regional District. KERR WOOD LEIDAL ASSOCIATES LTD. Consulting Engineers 251.109 Development of GVRD Precipitation Scenarios Final Report October 2002 KWL File No. 251.109 DEVELOPMENT OF GVRD PRECIPITATION SCENARIOS FINAL REPORT GREATER VANCOUVER REGIONAL DISTRICT OCTOBER 2002 CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................................................I 1. INTRODUCTION.....................................................................................1-1 1.1 BACKGROUND....................................................................................................................1-1 1.2 WORK PROGRAM ...............................................................................................................1-2 1.3 PROJECT TEAM..................................................................................................................1-4 2. BACKGROUND ON PRECIPITATION PROCESSES............................2-1 2.1 LARGE SCALE PROCESSES ................................................................................................2-1 2.2 REGIONAL AND LOCAL SCALE PROCESSES.........................................................................2-2 2.3 MICROSCALES ...................................................................................................................2-2 3. LITERATURE REVIEW - SUMMARY.....................................................3-1 3.1 GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL SCENARIOS.......................................................................3-1 3.2 IMPACTS OF PDO AND ENSO ON PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.................3-2 3.3 RAINFALL TRENDS IN SOUTHWESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA..................................................3-4 3.4 STREAMFLOW TRENDS.......................................................................................................3-5 3.5 SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT TRENDS ......................................................3-5 3.6 TEMPERATURE TRENDS......................................................................................................3-6 4. DATA AND METHODS ..........................................................................4-1 4.1 SELECTION OF PRECIPITATION RECORDS ............................................................................4-1 4.2 PROXY DATA .....................................................................................................................4-2 4.3 SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT (SWE) ....................................................................................4-3 4.4 STREAMFLOW ....................................................................................................................4-3 4.5 DATA LIMITATIONS .............................................................................................................4-3 4.6 TIME SERIES ANALYSIS ......................................................................................................4-7 5. ANALYSIS – PROXY DATA, SNOWPACK AND STREAMFLOW ........5-1 5.1 PROXY DATA .....................................................................................................................5-1 5.2 SNOW PACK AND STREAMFLOW .........................................................................................5-3 6. ANALYSIS - OBSERVED PRECIPITATION DATA ...............................6-1 6.1 SMOOTHING .......................................................................................................................6-1 6.2 LINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS .........................................................................................6-3 6.3 CHANGES IN THE FREQUENCY OF HIGH INTENSITY RAINFALL EVENTS ................................6-13 6.4 ANALYSIS OF THRESHOLD EXCEEDANCE CYCLICITY ..........................................................6-18 7. SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS ..............................................7-1 7.1 SUMMARY..........................................................................................................................7-1 7.2 RECOMMENDATIONS...........................................................................................................7-3 7.3 REPORT SUBMISSION .........................................................................................................7-5 KERR WOOD LEIDAL ASSOCIATES LTD. Consulting Engineers 251.109 DEVELOPMENT OF GVRD PRECIPITATION SCENARIOS FINAL REPORT GREATER VANCOUVER REGIONAL DISTRICT OCTOBER 2002 FIGURES 1-1 Location Map of Analyzed GVRD and MSC Rain Gauges 2-1 Precipitation Gradients in the GVRD 2-2 Annual Precipitation at Vancouver International Airport/Steveston 3-1 Variations of Southern Oscillations Index (SOI) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillations (PDO) from 1900 to 2000 5-1 Dendrochronologically Reconstructed Mean Annual Air Temperature at Longmire, Washington 5-2 Reconstructed Precipitation Indices for the Western Lowlands (a), the Columbia Basin (b) and the Southern Valleys (c) 5-3 Dendrochronologically Reconstructed Snow Depth and Precipitation, Forbidden Plateau, Vancouver Island 5-4 Snow Water Equivalent in April at Grouse Mountain 5-5 Discharge of Mackay Creek and Maximum Rainfall Intensity at DN25 5-6 Mean Annual Flow and PDO Phases for Capilano River and Coquitlam River 5-7 Maximum Daily Flow and PDO Phases at Capilano River and Coquitlam River 6-1 Distribution of Months with Positive Trends in Rainfall Intensities 6-2 Comparisons of Annual Maximum Rainfall Intensities for 5 min, 15 min and 1 hr at DN25 and VW14 6-3 Five-Year Interval Changes in Rainfall Intensity Occurrences for DN25 TABLES 1-1 Scientific Work Program 1-2 4-1 Rain Gauge Sites 4-1 6-1 Summary of Precipitation Trend Analysis for all Stations 6-1 6-2 Summary of Cumulative Departures from the Mean for all Stations 6-3 6-3 Summary of Linear Regression Analysis 6-4 6-4 (a to k) Linear Regression Results for Each Month 6-5 – 6-8 6-5 Comparisons of Means Between DN25 and DN15 / VW14 6-12 6-6 Comparison of Mean Precipitation Intensities at DN25 and the KWL Rain Gauge 6-12 6-7 (a to I) Threshold Exceedance Analyses 6-15 – 6-17 6-8 Changes in Mean Exceedance Counts from Pre-1977 to 1998 6-20 APPENDICES A Literature Review B Rainfall Intensity and Frequency Plots for all Stations (Bound Separately) C Report and Data on CD-Rom D Data Quality E Glossary of Specific Climate Terms KERR WOOD LEIDAL ASSOCIATES LTD. Consulting Engineers 251.109 Executive Summary DEVELOPMENT OF GVRD PRECIPITATION SCENARIOS FINAL REPORT GREATER VANCOUVER REGIONAL DISTRICT OCTOBER 2002 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the US National Academy of Science have concluded that the global atmospheric warming over the past 50 years can be attributed to greenhouse gas emissions. Atmospheric warming affects other parts of the climate system including precipitation which is the focus of this report. Specifically, this study aims to investigate the pattern of precipitation intensity in the Greater Vancouver Regional District (GVRD). This information is sought for management of existing sewerage and drainage infrastructure. Precipitation measurement and analysis are problematic due to the intermittent nature of precipitation, short historic records, and errors such as those due to wind effects around the instrument. Given the latter, long- term precipitation trends in urbanised settings may reflect changes in urban roughness as cities grow. The effect of such changes in the wind environment of cities on precipitation measurements is unknown. Data used in this study are uncorrected for wind and evaporation effects. Furthermore, instruments used in the GVRD network are exposed in a non-standard fashion (e.g. on building roofs where wind effects potentially introduce further errors). However, despite these data limitations strong trends in the data record should still be identifiable. In southwestern British Columbia, year to year precipitation variability is modulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) (50-60 years cycle), and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The magnitude of variability of these cycles is significantly greater than the accumulated changes currently attributed to the enhanced greenhouse effect. Consequently, trend analysis of the short historic record from the GVRD is fraught with difficulty. There is evidence that the last PDO warm phase that started around 1977 ended in 1998 or 1999 and that a cool phase has begun. Should this be confirmed
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