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Microscale Air Temperature Mapping in Greater Vancouver, British Columbia

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Microscale Air Temperature Mapping in Greater Vancouver, British Columbia MICROSCALE AIR TEMPERATURE MAPPING IN GREATER VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA by Pak Keung Tsin B.Sc., The University of British Columbia, 2013 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE in THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE AND POSTDOCTORAL STUDIES (Occupational and Environmental Hygiene) THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA (Vancouver) August 2018 © Pak Keung Tsin, 2018 The following individuals certify that they have read, and recommend to the Faculty of Graduate and Postdoctoral Studies for acceptance, a thesis/dissertation entitled: Microscale air temperature mapping in greater Vancouver, British Columbia submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements by Pak Keung Tsin for the degree of Master of Science in Occupational and Environmental Hygiene Examining Committee: Sarah Henderson Co-supervisor Michael Brauer Co-supervisor Matilda van den Bosch Additional Examiner Additional Supervisory Committee Members: Anders Knudby Supervisory Committee Member Scott Krayenhoff Supervisory Committee Member ii Abstract Background: Mobile air temperature monitoring is a promising method to better understand temperature distributions at fine spatial resolutions across urban areas and to minimize extreme hot weather health impacts. The first study objective was to collect pedestrian microscale air temperature data to evaluate different methods for assessing spatial variation in urban heat exposure in greater Vancouver, Canada. The second objective was to develop microscale land use regression (LUR) air temperature models using the data collected. Methods: Mobile air temperature monitoring was conducted on foot at least twice for 20 routes chosen to represent potential heat exposures. The mobile data were compared with 1-minute measurements from the nearest fixed site, with satellite-derived land surface temperature (LST) for runs corresponding with Landsat overpass days, and with estimates from a previously- developed heat map for the region based on satellite generated geographic data. Six independent variables were considered for use in constructing a 30 x 30m LUR model for each run and within all routes in greater Vancouver. All models were evaluated using a spatial leave-ten-out cross- validation (LTOCV) approach. Results: Mobile measurements were typically higher and more variable than simultaneous fixed site measurements. The relationship between mobile measurements and LST were weak and highly variable. The mobile measurement and heat map z-score differentials suggested that spatial temperature variability was well-captured by the previously-developed heat map. The Distance to Large Water Body, Distance to Major Road, Normalized Difference Water Index, and Sky-View Factor were selected as the most predictive independent variables. On average, the iii best individual route models explained 38.6% of the variation in microscale air temperatures at 20 routes. The overall model explained only 10.0% of the variation in the route areas of the greater Vancouver region. Conclusion: The microscale measurements confirmed that fixed sites did not characterize the thermal variability within nearby streetscapes. They could also be used to generate LUR models for some locations. The strength of daytime mesoscale atmospheric processes may weaken the predictive power of land use variables. Future studies intending to use microscale modelling should collect data within a restricted time range and across fewer routes. iv Lay Summary Mobile air temperature data were collected by walking 20 routes in greater Vancouver using a specialized thermometer, a global positioning system (GPS), and other equipment. These routes were chosen to reflect heat vulnerability, then compared with data from weather stations, satellite images, and a heat map. The data were also used to develop microscale air temperature models for each route and for all of greater Vancouver. Mobile air temperature measurements were higher than at fixed weather stations, had weak relationships with satellite measurements, and suggested that previously-developed heat map was generally representative of spatial temperature variability. On average, the individual route models explained 39% of the air temperature differences along each route. The overall greater Vancouver model only explained 10% of the air temperature differences in the greater Vancouver route areas. The strength of large scale daytime meteorological processes may have a larger influence than potentially predictive land use variables. v Preface The research idea for this study was originally identified by Dr. Sarah Henderson and Dr. Anders Knudby. Design of the research program was conducted collaboratively by Dr. Sarah Henderson and myself, with input from Dr. Michael Brauer, Dr. Anders Knudby, and Dr. Scott Krayenhoff. I conducted all field measurements of air temperature, with occasional assistance and accompaniment from volunteers Annie Wang and William Leung. Analysis of the research data was conducted by the author with guidance from all committee members. Chapter 2 is based on research published in Tsin, P. K. et al. Microscale mobile monitoring of urban air temperature. Urban Clim. 18, 58–72 (2016). Chapter 3 is currently in the process of publication in a to-be selected journal. For both chapters, I conducted all field measurements and wrote the manuscript with guidance from Dr. Sarah Henderson and input from Drs Michael Brauer, Anders Knudby, Scott Krayenhoff, and Derrick Ho. vi Table of Contents Abstract ......................................................................................................................................... iii Lay Summary .................................................................................................................................v Preface ........................................................................................................................................... vi Table of Contents ........................................................................................................................ vii List of Tables ..................................................................................................................................x List of Figures ............................................................................................................................... xi List of Abbreviations ................................................................................................................. xiii Acknowledgements .................................................................................................................... xiv Chapter 1: Introduction ................................................................................................................1 1.1 High Air Temperatures and Extreme Heat Events ......................................................... 1 1.1.1 Extreme Heat Events................................................................................................... 1 1.1.2 Extreme Heat Event Susceptibility in Temperate Regions ......................................... 2 1.1.3 Responses to Extreme Heat Events............................................................................. 3 1.1.4 Future Trends in Air Temperature and Extreme Heat Events .................................... 4 1.2 Background Climatology ................................................................................................ 5 1.3 Overview of Variables Affecting Temperature Determinants ........................................ 6 1.4 In-Situ Air Temperature Measurement Studies .............................................................. 7 1.4.1 Studies Examining the Urban Heat Island .................................................................. 8 1.4.2 Studies Examining Other Factors Related to Urban Temperatures .......................... 10 1.5 Remote Sensing Studies of Air Temperature ................................................................ 12 1.6 Land Use Regression Models of Air Temperature ....................................................... 13 1.7 Evidence Gaps for Greater Vancouver ......................................................................... 15 vii Chapter 2: Microscale Mobile Monitoring of Urban Air Temperature .................................17 2.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 17 2.2 Methods......................................................................................................................... 17 2.2.1 Study Area ................................................................................................................ 17 2.2.2 Route Selection ......................................................................................................... 18 2.2.3 Mobile Air Temperature Data Collection ................................................................. 19 2.2.4 Temperature Data for Comparison with Microscale Measurements ........................ 21 2.2.5 Data Analysis ............................................................................................................ 23 2.3 Results ........................................................................................................................... 25 2.3.1 Mobile Data Compared with Fixed Site Data ........................................................... 25 2.3.2 Mobile Data Compared with Land Surface Temperature
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