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Estimation of Transit Supply Parameters UMTA-MA-09-901 5-85-01 Transit Project tment oflransportation Planning Guidance Urban Mass Transportation Administration Estimation of T ransit Supply Parameters Prepared by: Transportation Systems Center October 1984 UMTA Capital Grants and Technical Assistance Programs NOTICE This document is disseminated under the sponsorship of the Department of Transportation in the interest of information exchange. The United States Government assumes no liability for its contents or use thereof. NOTICE The United States Government does not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturers' names appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the object of this report. 1 ft* .ftb 1 r\o- U MTA-MA-09-90 1 5-85-0 DOT'' TU' UMT*~ y TRANSIT PROJECT PLANNING GUIDANCE ESTIMATION OF TRANSIT SUPPLY PARAMETERS Michael Jacobs, Robert E. Skinner, and Andrew C. Lemer f October 1984 prepared by the U.S. Department of Transportation Transportation Systems Center Office of Systems Assessment for the U.S. Department of Transportation Urban Mass Transportation Administration Office of Technical Assistance and the Office of Grants Management Technical Report Documentation Page 1. Report No. 2. Government Aec< No. 3. Recipient' t Catalog No. UMTA-MA-09-901 5-85-01 4. Title and Subtitle S. Report Date TRANSIT PROJECT PLANNING GUIDANCE: ESTIMATION OF October 1984 TRANSIT SUPPLY PARAMETERS 6. Performing Orgoni lotion Code DTS-64 8. Performing Organization Report No. 7. Author' s) Michael Jacobs, Robert E. Skinner*, & Andrew C. Lemer** DQT-TSC-UMTA-84-33 9. Performing Organization Name and Address 10. Work Unit No. (TRAIS) U.S. Department of Transportation UM532, R5622 Research and Special Programs Administration 11. Contract or Grant No. Transportation Systems Center 15.Cambridge, MA 02142 13. Type of Report and Period Covered 12. Sponsoring Agency Nome and Address U.S. Department of Transportation 16.Urban Mass Transportation Administration Final Report Washington, DC 20590 14. Sponsoring Agency Code URT-40 Supplementary Notes Transportation Research Board **PRC Voorhees Washington, DC 20418 MacLean, VA 22102 Abstract This report discusses techniques applicable to the estimation of transit vehicle fleet requirements, vehicle-hours, vehicle-miles, and other transit supply para- meters. These parameters are used for estimating operating and maintenance costs as well as certain capital costs such as rolling stock. These costs, in turn, are critical factors in evaluating public transportation investment proposals. General considerations in estimating supply parameters are discussed. These include the relationship of supply parameter estimation to the overall project development process, typical data requirements for system planning and project planning, the assessment of operational feasibility, 17. and18. the sensitivity of the supply parameter estimates to input assumptions and procedures. The use of empirical data to assess the reasonableness of these estimates is emphasized, and selected empirical data are provided. 19.The following topics also are 20.covered: the definition and description of alterna- tives; the estimation of transit vehicle and line capacities; the preparation of ridership forecasts and the analysis of the compatibility among these forecasts and the underlying capacity and level of service assumptions; the estimation of fleet requirements and service parameters; and the estimation of the numbers of employees required to operate proposed transit services. Kay Words Distribution Statement mass transportation; transit supply Document is available to the U.S. public parameters; project planning; system through the National Technical Information planning; alternatives analysis; fleet Service, Springfield, Virginia 22161 requirements; vehicle miles; vehicle hours Security Classif. (of this report) Security Classif. (of this page) 21* No. of Pages 22. Price UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED 172 (8-72) Form DOT F 1700.7 Reproduction of completed page authorized PREFACE This is the first in a series of reports intended to assist State and local agencies in the conduct of urban transportation planning, with particular emphasis on major mass transportation investments. Subsequent reports will be published and updated periodically under the overall title of "Transit Project Planning Guidance," and will address such subjects as capital and operating cost estimation, financial planning, travel forecasting, evaluation of alternatives, energy and air quality impact analysis, economic and development impact analysis, and noise and vibration impact analysis. The guidance strives primarily to provide information which will be useful to agencies undertaking transit project planning, including those agencies seeking to fulfill the requirements described in UMTA's "Major Capital Investment Policy of 1984." Discussions will encompass the definition of the physical and operational characteristics of alternative transit projects, plus the estimation and assessment of expected fiscal and other impacts. Where agencies are contemplating applying to the Federal government for financial assistance, the guidance also will convey general expectations regarding basic analysis principles (e.g., uniformity of assumptions among alternatives, and compatibility of forecasts with available empirical data). While specific analysis techniques are not mandated, these principles will help assure consistency in the evaluation criteria used for Federal decision- making related to the granting of discretionary capital assistance. ABSTRACT This report discusses techniques applicable to the estimation of transit vehicle fleet requi rements , vehicle-hours, vehicle-miles, and other transit supply parameters. These parameters are used for estimating operating and maintenance costs as well as certain capital costs such as rolling stock. These costs, in turn, are critical factors in evaluating public transportation investment proposals. General considerations in estimating supply parameters are discussed first. These include the relationship of supply parameter estimation to the overall project development process, typical data requirements for system planning and project planning, the assessment of operational feasibility, and the sensitivity of the supply parameter estimates to input assumptions and procedures. The use of empirical data to assess the reasonableness of these estimates is emphasized, and selected empirical data are provided throughout the text and in appendices. Other chapters deal in somewhat greater detail with the following aspects of supply parameter estimation: the definition and description of alterna- tives; the estimation of transit vehicle and line capacities; the preparation of ridership forecasts and the analysis of the compatibility among these forecasts and the underlying capacity and level of service assumptions; the estimation of fleet requirements and service parameters; and the estimation of the numbers of employees required to operate proposed transit services. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This report was written by Michael Jacobs, U.S. DOT/Transportation Systems Center (TSC), Robert E. Skinner, Transportation Research Board (TRB) and formerly with PRC Voorhees (PRC), and Andrew C. Lemer, PRC. Various other individuals reviewed draft materials and provided helpful comments, including: Edward Thomas, Samuel Zimmerman, and James Ryan, UMTA; Donald Ward, Douglass Lee, and Thomas Dooley, TSC; Martin Wohl , Carnegi e-Mel Ion University; Paul Shuldiner, University of Massachusetts/Amherst; James Watt, PRC; Alfred Harf, New Jersey Department of Transportation; and Donald Kidston, Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority. Their assistance is gratefully acknowledged. Responsibility for the views expressed herein, however, and for the accuracy of the information presented, rests solely with the authors. TABLE OF CONTENTS Page 1. INTRODUCTION 1 2. GENERAL CONSIDERATIONS 5 2.1 An Overview of the Supply Parameter Estimation Process 5 2.2 Supply-Demand Equilibrium 8 2.3 Iterative Nature of Supply Parameter Estimation 9 2.4 Sensitivity to Input Assumptions and Procedures 10 2.5 System Planning Versus Project Planning Requirements 14 2.6 Operating Feasibility 15 2.7 Relationship Between Predictive Techniques and Reasonableness Checks 17 3. DEFINITION OF ALTERNATIVES 19 3.1 Alignment and Stations 19 (a) Guideway alignment 19 (b) Stations 20 3.2 Line-Haul Travel Times 21 (a) Station spacing 21 (b) Vehicle performance 21 (c) Station dwell times 26 (d) Average speed estimates 27 3.3 Service Characteristics 33 (a) Routings 33 (b) Service frequency (headways) 35 (c) Service hours and service days 37 3.4 Special Services 38 (a) Express services 38 (b) Skip-stop operations 41 (c) Branch line operations 41 (d) Partial turnbacks 42 (e) School services 42 (f) Paratransit services 43 3.5 Background Bus Networks 43 TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued) Page 4. ESTIMATION OF CAPACITIES 47 4.1 Vehicle Capacities and Loading Standards 47 (a) Use of gross loading standards 48 (b) Use of prototypical seating configurations 52 (c) Upper bounds on standee space standards 53 4.2 Train Capacities 55 4.3 Line Capacities 56 5. TRANSIT DEMAND ESTIMATES AND CAPACITY/LEVEL OF SERVICE CHECKS 57 5.1 Preparation of Transit Ridership Estimates 57 (a) Empirical data for "all -mode" trips and transit trips 59 (b) Empirical data on transit loadings/use of specific transit facilities and services 60 (c) Sub-hourly peaking 63 5.2 Capacity and Level of Service Checks 65 (a) Parking capacities and park-and-ride
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