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In his Strange Death of Liberal England the journalist and literary editor of Vanity Fair George Dangerfield surveyed the political landscape of the early Design: 1900s, and from today’s Labour perspective, highlighted some alarming coincidences. www.theundercard.co.uk He observed that the collapse of the Liberal Party came within a few short years of To advertise its greatest electoral triumph – the landslide victory of 1906 – and happened at the Tel: 029 2066 6606 end of its longest period of government. Some of the reasons for the collapse are Institute of Welsh Affairs also uncannily contemporary. The Liberals split over a misjudged and costly war, in 4 Cathedral Road their case against the Boers in South Africa. They picked a fight with progressive Cardiff CF11 9LJ causes such as votes for women. They alienated their working class supporters. They Tel: 029 2066 0820 reformed the House of Lords, but left hereditary peers in place. Their senior leaders Email: [email protected] – Lloyd George and Asquith – fell out. And they left office, for at least a century if www.iwa.org.uk not for ever, mired in a cash for peerages scandal. The IWA is a non-aligned independent think- Of course, historical precedents are not necessarily transferable and the Liberal tank and research institute. Members (annual collapse a century ago was partly attributable to the First World War. Nonetheless, subscription £40) receive three times present times do have an Edwardian air of being the end of an era. In this issue a year, can purchase reports at a 25 per cent we review a new IWA book by Conservative AM David Melding. It has the title reduction, and receive discounts when attending Will Britain Survive Beyond 2020? Many will think this an extraordinary question, IWA events. coming from a Conservative, a member of what used to be the most unionist of parties in Wales. This is no longer the case. Indeed, the book reveals that some of Branches North Wales Secretariat the most challenging thinking on constitutional issues is now coming from the Welsh Conservative camp, albeit from a relatively rarefied part of it. David Melding’s case c/o Huw Lewis is that if Britain is to survive then it must be as a federal construct, with the Home 6 Maes yr Haul, Mold, Flintshire CH7 1NS Tel: 01352 758311 Nations each given their sovereign identities and dues. Another strand is the public’s disengagement with the political parties and Gwent Secretariat electoral politics, exacerbated by the expenses saga in the House of Commons, a c/o Chris O’Malley theme a range of authors explore in our Outlook section. The party most affected is University of Wales, Newport, Caerleon Campus Labour. Part of its problem in Wales is that because it is still such a dominant force, PO Box 179, Newport NP18 3YG it has the most to lose. The London media made great play of the Conservatives Tel: 01633 432005 coming first in the recent Euro elections, the first all-Wales electoral contest that West Wales Secretariat Labour has not won since 1918. In reality, the Conservatives and Labour were neck c/o Margaret Davies and neck, with Plaid Cymru not far behind. But this still meant that the Labour vote Principal’s Office, Trinity University College, fell by 12 per cent, a larger fall than in Scotland or any region of England. A most Carmarthen SA31 3EP generous reading of their performance will see them losing at least half-a-dozen of Tel: 01267 237971 their Welsh seats at the forthcoming general election. If all this is so and we are indeed living through the ‘Strange Death of Labour Swansea Bay Secretariat Britain’ does this mean that, inevitably, Labour Wales will also be included? c/o Beti Williams Devolution could be part of the answer to Welsh Labour’s woes. In a valedictory Department of Computer Science, message to his party, in his contribution to the IWA’s Politics in 20 th Century Wales Swansea University, Swansea SA2 8PP last year, Rhodri Morgan offered some good advice. In short he suggested that the Tel: 01792 295625 party should advocate proportional representation for local government elections and Wales in London work hard “to counteract the charge that Labour stands for some diluted or half- c/o Robert John hearted form of Welshness”. The party could also take a leaf out of David Melding’s First Base, 22 Ganton Street, London W1F 7BY book in the form of pressing for more autonomy within the framework of what is Tel: 020 7851 5521 presently a highly centralised British organisation. If Welsh Labour had, say, a federal relationship with other Labour parties in Scotland and England it would be forced to strengthen its organisation and policy making capacity. Unless some initiative along these lines occurs then it is difficult to foresee anything but a continuing hollowing out and decline of what, not so long ago, seemed an invincible political force. contents opinion news outlook Summer 2009 No. 38 opi nion 20 Devolution’s Next Step 27 Winning in Scotland 41 For Whom the Peter Hain urges caution Isobel Lindsay assesses Bridge Tolls 6 Time to Talk About in pressing ahead with a the record of the SNP Nick Morris