MISOVERESTIMATING TERRORISM John Mueller Ohio State University and Cato Institute Mark G. Stewart University of Newcastle November 24, 2015 Prepared for presentation at the Constructions of Terrorism Conference sponsored by TRENDS Research and Advisory, Abu Dhabi, and the Orfalea Center for Global and International Studies, University of California, Santa Barbara Santa Barbara, California, December 3-4, 2015. John Mueller Woody Hayes Senior Research Scientist, Mershon Center for International Security Studies Adjunct Professor, Department of Political Science Ohio State University Columbus, Ohio 43201, United States Cato Senior Fellow, Cato Institute 1000 Massachusetts Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20001, United States politicalscience.osu.edu/faculty/jmueller +1 614 247-6007
[email protected] Mark G. Stewart Australian Research Council Professorial Fellow Professor and Director, Centre for Infrastructure Performance and Reliability The University of Newcastle New South Wales, 2308, Australia www.newcastle.edu.au/research-centre/cipar/staff/mark-stewart.html +61 2 49216027
[email protected] ABSTRACT: While it is not true that 9/11 “changed everything,” the tragedy did have a strong impact on language, on how terrorism has come to be understood and explained. First, its apparent incidence has been multiplied by effectively re-defining insurgency as terrorism. Accordingly, the category of “civil war” may be in the process of going out of existence—and the same could even happen for much international war. Second, extrapolating wildly from the apparent capacities of the 9/11 hijackers, the threat presented internationally by small bands of terrorists has been greatly exaggerated, sometimes even to the point of deeming it to be existential—a process that may be repeating itself with ISIS.