MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Update August 2009

Figure 1. Estimated food security conditions, July-  Food availability and access have not changed substantially for September 2009) most households in the last two months; the majority now has nearly adequate access to food. Moderate levels of food insecurity is found in most of the semi‐arid zones, where poorer households are struggling to meet their food needs, through their own produced and/or purchased food.

 While a country‐wide assessment is underway, which will project food security conditions for the remainder of the consumption year, beginning in October, the World Food Program (WFP) plans to assist 175,000 persons in selected districts in the provinces of Tete, Gaza, and Sofala until the 2009/2010 harvest.

 Despite favorable overall production prospects, the National Directorate of Commerce (DNC) indicates a total cereal deficit of 558,000 MT for the May 2009 to April 2010 marketing year. The gap is expected to be covered by commercial imports and food assistance.

 The Agriculture Market Information System (SIMA) indicates that prices for food commodities have been oscillating week by week, but the monthly averages are increasing seasonably. At the consumer level, the maize price has been generally stable, and most prices, although higher than the five‐year average, are lower than this time last year. For more information on FEWS NET’s Food Insecurity Severity Scale, please see: 3TUwww.fews.net/FoodInsecurityScale U3T

Seasonal calendar and critical events Source: FEWS NET

Source: FEWS NET

FEWS NET FEWS NET Washington FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors’ views expressed in this Av. FPLM, 2698, 1717 H St NW publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency Tel: 258 21 460588; Washington DC 20006 for International Development or the United States Government. Mobile: 258 82 3050574 [email protected] Fax: 258 21 462657 [email protected]

www.fews.net/mozambique

MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Update August 2009

Food security summary

Food availability and access have not changed substantially in the last two months for most households; the majority now has nearly adequate access to food. At the consumer level, the maize price has been generally stable, although it remains higher than the five‐year average. Nevertheless there are regional differences, and in the semi‐arid districts of southern and northwest , and the semi‐arid district of , very poor and poor households are at high risk of food insecurity. Some 175,000 people (0.8 percent of the population) are facing difficulties in meeting their food needs, and likely resorting to extreme coping strategies to fill the food deficits.

The annual food security assessment by SETSAN and partners is underway and will determine the scale of need and appropriate response mechanisms, and project the food security conditions for the remainder of the consumption year. In the meantime, SETSAN anticipates that 240,000 to 350,000 people are at high risk of food insecurity, and will require humanitarian assistance — such as food aid, inputs, or water interventions — until the main harvest in April/May 2010 in the semi‐arid districts of southern Tete province (districts of Changara, Cahora Bassa, Mágoe, and Mutarara) and northwest Gaza province (Chicualacuala, Chigubo, Chibuto, and Mabalane), and the semi‐arid district of Sofala province (Chemba, Cheringoma, Chibabava, Maríngue, and Machanga). To date, no food aid has been delivered, due mainly to lack of resources, but resources have been secured to assist 175,000 persons from October 2009 until April 2010. According to the World Food Program (WFP), close to 19,300 MT of food (cereal and pulses) are needed for them, as well as the 72,000 additional people who become food insecure after October.

Later in 2009, moderate food insecurity will likely extend to very poor and poor households in the interior of province (Govuro, Mabote, Funhalouro, and Panda), Sofala province (Maríngue and Cheringoma), Zambezia province (Mopeia and Morrumbala) and southeastern districts of (Moma, Angoche, Mongicual, and Mossuril).

A failure to provide timely humanitarian intervention will cause further deterioration of the poorer households’ living conditions. They will possibly begin to employ extreme and negative coping strategies, including consumption of improper food on a larger scale and be subject to health risks; particular attention must be given during the hunger period. The impact of this year’s poor rains in parts of southern and central regions, in particular, on the poor households living in these areas will likely be severe, as most of the areas are cash poor and have limited opportunity to diversify their livelihoods. Additionally, higher prices for maize and its substitutes may erode the purchasing power of the rural poor, reducing their ability to access food of adequate quality and quantity.

Rapid food security assessment in Chibuto and Manjacaze districts

FEWS NET and the National Institute of Disaster Management (INGC) carried out a qualitative rapid food security assessment in August in Chibuto and Manjacaze districts, both in Gaza province. The assessment covered the following locations: Chibuto capital, Alto Changana, and Maqueze in , and Manjacaze capital, Chalala, Guachene, Macuacua, and Muchisso in (see Figure 2).

Assessment findings

During the 2008/09 production season, rains started in mid‐November (normally, rains are expected in early October), and ended much earlier than expected. Rainfall distribution was also quite irregular. During the second season, rains have only occurred in May and again now in August. These conditions have adversely affected crop production.

However, given the persistent planting whenever rains occurred, crops — particularly maize — were found in the field at different growing stages, from seeding to flowering stages. In all observed cases, additional rainfall is needed and crucial for normal development of crops.

The northern part of both districts is typically semi‐arid with sandier soils and moderate levels of food insecurity. Poor rural households in these remote zones are particularly vulnerable to production losses, given their livelihoods, which limit their ability to earn cash income, and general isolation from markets and roads. Within these areas, the households most at risk

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MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Update August 2009

of food insecurity are the poor and very poor, who Figure 2. The two districts showing the locations (in red) have no livestock. To cope, they are currently selling covered by the FEWS NET/INGC joint assessment, 4-7 August, forest products such as firewood, charcoal, 2009 traditionally distilled alcohol, and other goods and crafts, and probably will begin consuming wild foods. Most families, especially those living in the southern part of both districts, will also receive remittances from family members working in South Africa and elsewhere. Poorer households will begin to exchange casual labor in neighboring areas for food, though these sources, too, will likely be limited.

As the main season 2009/10 approaches, usually starting in October, the primary request/recommendation from administrative and agriculture authorities and farmers from both districts is the timely allocation of seeds. Another strong request came from the northern Manjacaze district, where households asked for cassava cuttings.

Chibuto District

Moderately food insecurity levels were observed in the northern part of the district, typically semi‐arid, where the main season production was hardly affected by irregularity of rains and with no favorable conditions for the second season. The poor and very Source: FEWS NET poor households from these semi‐arid areas are now employing coping strategies including reduction in the frequency and quantity of meals. Special and immediate attention – including humanitarian assistance – is strongly recommended for the northern semi‐arid area of Chibuto district to avoid further deterioration of food security conditions and the employing of extreme and negative coping strategies. Extreme coping strategies include the consumption of wild roots, known locally as xicutso and matiwo, wild fruits, known as Macuacua and massala, and drinking of wild fruit juice that can cause health problems. The FEWS NET/INGC mission has visited the Administrative Post of Alto Changana and the Locality of Maqueze where households’ food reserves have exhausted and the above described coping strategies are in place. The ongoing VAC assessment is expected to confirm the scale of need in these areas and will determine whether assistance through the Government of Mozambique, external donors, or a combination is necessary.

The pasture and water availability in the northern semi‐arid zone is a serious concern. Livestock from those areas has to travel long distances in search of water and pasture. Relief is only expected with the coming of the seasonal rains that normally occurs in October.

Generally, poor households in the semi‐arid zone have similar problems that include very low cash incomes, even in normal years. This limits the ability of households to make up for production losses without outside assistance. Income from the sale of crops declines when production is poor, but this has little effect on poor households, since they generally sell little of their crop production, and only a small amount of income is normally obtained through the sale of natural products (e.g., grass, building poles, etc.). This semi‐arid zone has similar conditions with the rest of the north and interior of Gaza Region where poor households cannot cover basic minimum household expenditures for items such as tea, soap, salt, primary schooling, and basic healthcare.

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MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Update August 2009

Manjacaze District

On the other hand, the northern part of the district including the visited Administrative Posts of Chalala and Macuacua and localities of Guachene and Muchisso conditions are much similar to those from the semi‐arid zones of Chibuto. The locality of Muchisso, for instance, is characterized by sandier soils and lower population density, a characteristic of the whole northern part of the Manjacaze district. According to local sources, the region has never experienced regular rains since 2000. This factor has forced local households to adapt their livelihoods to the prevailing conditions. Among existing coping strategies, the main widely practiced is the crafting where household members including men and women of all ages are intensely involved in making traditional sieves made of a locally abundant palm tree leaves – a dwarf palm tree known as sabal. The tree from which the leaves are obtained is also used to prepare the traditional alcohol drink called utchema. Both traditional sieves and the alcohol drink utchema are sold in the major towns and cities nearby. This has been the situation for years now in which the households from that zone are used to production losses and make up their lives by selling craft products and alcohol drinks. This situation prolongs until the next availability of green food in December/January following seasonal onset of rains in November. Also in November/December, cashew nuts will be widely harvested in the district. The drought resistant cassava crop is only available in the eastern part of the district. When asked why drought resistant cassava crops were not seen in the fields, the households from Muchisso said that the reason was because they couldn’t get cassava cuttings as easy as they get maize seeds. Further assessment to find out whether the current living standard is adequate is strongly recommended. Humanitarian intervention in the area should take into account a nutritional survey that will tell what kind of assistance is adequate.

Water availability is of great concern given that households are forced to travel longer distances in search of water, which means they have less time for other activities like school and farming. Also, water shortages are forcing humans to share water with animals and to take it from other less potable sources, which may result in disease outbreaks such as cholera and diarrhea. In general livestock body conditions are good throughout the district, although pasture is now hardly found.

2008/09 preliminary production estimates

The recently released preliminary production estimates from the Ministry of Agriculture indicate that 2008/09 cereal production (including maize, sorghum, millet, and rice) was about 2.6 million MT, an increase of 14 percent from last year and 26.5 percent above the five‐year average (Table 1). The northern region (Niassa, Cabo Delgado, and Nampula provinces) produced 951,306 MT, an increase of 9.55 percent compared to last year and about 19.5 percent above the five‐ year average. The central region (Zambézia, Tete, Manica, and Sofala provinces) produced about 1.36 million MT, an increase of 8.45 percent from last year and 123.3 percent above the average. The southern region (Inhambane, Gaza and Maputo provinces) produced 303,755 MT, which corresponds to an increase of 76.63 percent from last year’s production and an increase of 81.4 percent compared to the average.

Table 1. 2008/09 cereal, pulse, and cassava production estimates compared to the five-year average Cereals (MT) Pulses (MT) Cassava (MT)

Region Average 2008/09 Var. (%) Average 2008/09 Var. (%) Average 2008/09 Var. (%) North 796.154 951.305 19,5 183.488 216.336 17,9 4.426.416 5.689.872 28,5 Center 1.104.664 1.361.873 23,3 108.904 126.159 15,8 2.103.686 2.610.894 24,1 South 167.447 303.754 81,4 59.854 67.137 12,2 633.942 884.788 39,6 Country 2.068.266 2.616.932 26,5 352.246 409.632 16,3 7.164.045 9.185.554 28,2 Source: Ministry of Agriculture, 2009

The production of pulses at the national level is estimated to be 409,630 MT, nearly seven percent higher than last year and close to 16 percent above average. In all three regions of the country, the production of pulses was above last year’s level and the five‐year average. The current year’s production in the north, center, and south was 17.9, 15.8, and 12.2 percent above the five‐year averages, respectively.

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MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Update August 2009

National production of cassava was 9.2 million MT, an increase of 8.5 percent over the previous season and 28 percent from the average. Cassava production was particularly above average in the south, about 40 percent, which will complement the deficit of cereals in terms of local food availability.

The production of maize — the most important staple crop for Mozambican households — was also greater than last year, and more than the five‐year average, especially in the northern and central provinces (Figure 3). Production was also above average in Maputo, Gaza, and Inhambane provinces in the south.

These production estimates need to be integrated with other food balance inputs to show to what extent food needs for the 2009/10 consumption year will be met by this year’s harvest. In analyzing these statistics, one should consider the fact that the benefits of cereal surpluses in Mozambique have often been limited, due to problems with road access and market functionality, which have prevented the redistribution of these surpluses to deficit areas.

Figure 3. Maize production (in MT) in the 2008/09 agriculture season, compared The second season production has with the previous season and the five-year average (2003/04-2007/08) been satisfactory in the lowland and 400.000 irrigated areas, providing additional 2007/08 2008/09 Average (2004-2008) food and income to households in 350.000 these areas. However, its 300.000 contribution to overall annual 250.000 production remained relatively low 200.000

(about 15 percent or less). Other 150.000 crops produced in Mozambique 100.000 include sweet potatoes, sesame, legumes, soya, wheat, tea and 50.000 0 tobacco. Although production of Cabo Niassa Nampula Zambezia Tete Manica Sofala Inhambane Gaza Maputo these crops remains very small they Delgado are currently being promoted NORTH CENTER SOUTH countrywide, especially where appropriate agro‐climatic conditions for such crops exist.

Source: Ministry of Agriculture, 2009

Cereal deficit for 2009/10 marketing year

Food balance estimates recently released by the National Directorate of Commerce (DNC) indicate a total cereal deficit of 558,000 MT for the May 2009 to April 2010 marketing year, which is expected to be covered by commercial imports and food assistance. The deficits are mostly in rice and in wheat, which are produced in Mozambique in limited quantities. The total available maize has exceeded total domestic consumption needs by 123,000 MT. The DNC foresees a total of 907,000 MT in cereal imports: 220,000 MT of maize, 258,000 MT of rice and 429,000 MT of wheat. Expected exports are 233,000 MT of maize, 2,000 MT of wheat and 2,000 MT of sorghum/Millet.

For other foods, such as tubers, beans, and peanuts, the food balance indicates good production, which is sufficient to cover national consumption needs, especially in the north and center of the country. For these commodities, the DNC foresees surpluses of 869,000 MT for fresh cassava, 73,000 MT for other tubers and 53,000 MT for beans/peanuts.

Although total stocks appear adequate to meet the country’s consumption needs at the national level, localized deficits may occur due to a combination of adverse growing conditions and the inability of some households to close production gaps through expanded purchases. In addition, there are significant differences in food supply and implications for food security regionally (see Table 3).

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MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Update August 2009

Table 3. Food balance for the 2009/10 consumption year (in 000 MT) Maize Rice Wheat Sorghum/ Total Cassava Other Beans/ Millet cereals tubers Peanut Total Available 2.224 250 45 446 2.964 7.554 790 459 Initial Stocks 292 105 35 23 455 117 39 49 Monitored 210 85 35 0 330 0 1 2 Not monitored 82 20 0 23 125 117 38 47 Gross Production 1.932 165 10 423 2.529 7.437 751 410 Consumption 2.101 505 485 431 3.522 6.684 717 406 Human Consumption 1.665 485 484 381 3.015 4.574 560 341 Industrial Consumption and ration 140 0 0 10 150 59 6 0 Seeds 57 12 1 9 79 0 12 24 Loss 239 8 0 31 278 2.051 139 41 Deficit(‐)/Surplus(+) 123 ‐255 ‐440 15 ‐558 869 73 53 Imports 220 258 429 0 907 0 0 10 Formal 175 250 376 0 801 0 0 5 Informal 10 5 3 0 18 0 0 5 Food Aid for Market 0 3 50 0 53 0 0 0 Emergency Food Aid 35 0 0 0 35 0 0 0 Exports 233 0 2 2 237 5 0 5 Formal 30 0 0 2 32 0 0 0 Informal 203 0 2 0 205 5 0 5 Final stocks estimated 110 3 ‐13 13 112 864 73 58 Source: Ministry of Industry and Commerce/National Directorate of Commerce, 2009

North (Cabo Delgado, Niassa and Nampula): Food availability is good, with production surpluses in maize, cassava, peanuts, beans and other tubers. The assessed situation suggests that the surplus production is sufficient in quantity to supply part of the central and southern regions. However, the small price margins for maize are generally insufficient to cover the high transaction costs, particularly transport costs. Alternatively, exports to neighbouring countries are envisioned, particularly to Malawi (a normal trading partner). Maize supply is expected to exceed regional consumption needs by 339,000MT, with a total cereals surplus of 259,000MT.

Center (Tete, Zambézia, Manica, and Sofala): Food availability is fairly good and inter‐provincial maize flows and rice and wheat imports are expected to cover the needs in deficit areas. Zambezia, Manica, and Tete provinces experienced good maize production, although there are pockets of food insecurity. There is a total cereals deficit of 171,000 MT and a maize surplus of 100,000 MT.

South (Maputo, Gaza, and Inhambane): Cereal production is not sufficient to cover the consumption requirements until the next harvest in March/April of 2010. There is a total cereal deficit of 625,000MT, which is expected to be covered by inter‐ provincial inflows, commercial imports and food assistance. The supply of maize specifically is also in deficit (316,000MT).

Maize prices increasing seasonably, and higher than average

Prices for food commodities have been oscillating week after week, but in general, the monthly averages are increasing seasonably. In the four reference markets, monthly maize prices have been slowly increasing, except in Maputo capital city, where until July maize prices had not yet started increasing. At the beginning of the year, maize prices were much higher than the five‐year average (2004‐08) and that of last year, but since May, prices have been similar or below last year’s prices, except in Maputo capital city where they are still slightly higher. In Chokwe, a reference market in the south, July maize prices were 37 percent higher than the average and 10 percent below last year’s prices. In Manica, a reference market in center, July maize prices were 54 percent higher than the average and 28 percent below last year’s prices. In Nampula, a reference market in the north, July maize prices were 42 percent higher than the average and 20 percent below

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MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Update August 2009

last year’s prices. Maputo’s maize prices were 58 percent above the average, but slightly above last year’s prices (three percent).

The increasing ratio this year is relatively low when compared with last year (see the price bulletin annex). According to the seasonal trend, maize and other commodity prices will keep increasing toward the peak in December‐February. Prices are expected to start decreasing only in March 2010, after the main harvest.

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ANNEX: Mozambique Monthly Price Bulletin August 2009

Maize, rice, and beans are the most important food commodities. Maize is the staple food for the poor, with rice most often used as a substitute. Beans are important to all wealth groups. Each of the markets represented here act as indicators for the broader region. Tete is representative for the province by the same name, Nampula is the main market in the north and is representative for the region, and has linkages with the interior of Zambezia and Nampula provinces and coastal Nampula. Beira, Gorongosa, and Manica market has links with Chimoio market, which has links with Gorongosa and southern markets. The Chokwe and Maputo markets in the south are linked to the Chimoio, Manica, and Gorongosa markets in the central region. Chókwe is the reference market for the southern region, except Maputo, the capital.

Monthly prices are supplied by the market information system in Mozambique.

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ANNEX: Mozambique Monthly Price Bulletin August 2009

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ANNEX: Mozambique Monthly Price Bulletin August 2009

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