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2015-2040 the Silver Line

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THE SILVER LINE ECONOMIC AND OFFICE MARKET IMPACT – 2015-2040 D C u l a 7 ll 28 e i s Gr r e b A en w o s a h y r b n u wy e k r P n m P G r k Fa l w o y u c ester P k w oad Br y la Route 28 North n L ds Blvd o u n d o u n C W o ax d 625 u pool R 28 n 267 t 28 y Leesburg Pike Sully Rd P k w y Springvale Rd 62528 N Sterling Blvd MARYLAND ROUTE 772/ RYAN ROAD 19328 28628 B e Drainesville Rd l d m v l o B y n r w t ROUTE 606 a k t R s P i d 193 h y 28 t g t r n o e Dulles Greenway Sterling Rd u R N o d C 28 287 28 x 738 a 28 f r Leesburg Pike Herndon i 621 a 28 F H u 26728 n Old Ox Rd t 22828 Reston e Ge r o rg M e 606 town Pik 28 i 7 e l 28 l INNOVATION R CENTER d HERNDON RESTON 26728 Tysons TOWN WIEHLE- DULLES 12328 50 CENTER RESTON Corner AIRPORT Sully Rd EAST SPRING 60828 W HILL e s Reston Pkwy t Centreville Rd O x R GREENSBORO John Mosby Hwy 65728 d MCLEAN L aw ye TYSONS 286 rs 28 Rd CORNER Lawyers Rd 60628 28 G Polend Rd 50 28 u Fox Mill Rd m S p r i Hunter Mill Rd n WEST g EAST FALLS d v l R B FALLS d CHURCH t 62028 f o 665 CHURCH r 50 28 c 28628 12328 e 65728 DUNN LORING n Lee Jackson Memorial Hwy o VIRGINIA t Sully Rd d S yR e VIENNA 29 ll a V Lee Hwy t 29 n a s a e l 50 Arlington Blvd 50 P Fairfax Blvd 50 Pleasant Valley Rd 29 23728 28628 65028 23628 Main Street Lee Hwy F Gallows Rd a i r f Little River Turnpike 24428 a x 12328 609 28 C Lincolnia Rd 28 28 o 62028 u 645 n 28 t y P Lee Hwy k 23628 w y 62028 29 Ox Rd Elizabeth Norton Centreville Rd Braddock202.775.7026 Rd Cliffton Rd Cliffton [email protected] VAN DORN ST 648 645 28628 28 28 63828 2828 Burke Lake Rd ECONOMIC AND OFFICE THE SILVER LINE MARKET IMPACT – 2015-2040 PHASE 1 – Opened July 2014 PHASE 2 – Opening 2018 TYSONS CORNER RESTON HERNDON ROUTE 28 NORTH McLean Tysons Greensboro Spring Wiehle - Reston Herndon Innovation Dulles Int’ Route 606 Route 772/ Corner Hill Reston East Town Center Center Airport Ryan Road The Silver Line is an extension of the Washington HIGHLIGHTS Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA) rail line, which runs from Route 772 in Loudoun County, Virginia, • From 2015 to 2040, a total of 70,000 office using jobs to Largo Town Center in Largo, Maryland. When fully are projected to be added to the four submarkets completed, the Silver Line will consist of 34 stations, of impacted by the new Silver Line Metro stations. 61% of which 11 will be new in Northern Virginia. Five of these these jobs are expected to be within a half mile of the new stations have opened as of July 2014. The remaining new Metro stations. Most of this growth is due to occur six stations are planned to open by 2018. from 2015 to 2030, as 75% of new office using jobs are expected to be added during this period. The new stations will be located in the Tysons Corner, Reston, Herndon, and Route 28 North submarkets. This • Most office using job growth will occur within a half white paper projects job growth and office demand over mile of the new Metro stations, with the exception of the next 25 years in each submarket. In addition, given the stations located in the Route 28 North submarket. over 60% of office using job growth will surround the new • Of the 14.0 million square feet of office demand Metro stations we drill these projections down to a half projected for the four submarkets from 2015 to mile radius for each new station. Following are highlights 2040, 8.5 million square feet is expected surrounding from the report. Thereafter analysis and recommendations the Metro stations. Tysons Corner is expected to are provided by submarket. experience the greatest office demand during this period. EMPLOYMENT AND OFFICE DEMAND PROJECTIONS Job Growth 2015 • Although above average growth near Metro is 2015 2040 to 2040 expected, the growth will be lighter than it could be ENTIRE SUBMARKET due to several factors as discussed in the conclusion Number of Total Employees 352,200 537,000 184,800 of this report. Number of Office Employees 148,804 218,788 69,984 • Tenants will remain interested in newer or fully Projected Office Demand: 13,996,800 renovated office space. Given most office inventory near the Metro stations is Class B/C and will continue WITHIN A HALF MILE OF METRO STATION to age through 2040, property owners should focus on Number of Total Employees 153,400 245,100 91,700 renovating this space to Class A to remain competitive Number of Office Employees 72,440 115,135 42,695 to tenants. Projected Office Demand: 8,539,000 SOURCE: Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments, ESRI, Transwestern • New development is warranted more so for Tysons Corner near the new Metro stations, but not out of the question for Reston or Herndon in select locations. New development could occur in the Route 28 North submarket near Metro, as the current inventory is relatively low. The Silver Line – Economic and Office Market Impact – 2014-2040 | 2 ECONOMIC AND OFFICE THE SILVER LINE MARKET IMPACT – 2015-2040 Number of Office Employees 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 NEW JOBS PROJECTED NEW OFFICE USING JOBS 0 Between Created Between 2015-2020 2015 − 2040 2015 − 2040 2020-2025 % 2025-2030 61 2030-2035 0.5 MI 2035-2040 70K 184K Office Use Total Jobs Balance of Submarket Half Mile of Metro Station SOURCE: Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments, ESRI, Transwestern NEW JOBS PROJECTED NEW OFFICE USING JOBS 6,000 Between Created Between ) F S f 5,000 o 2015 − 2040 2015 − 2040 s d n a s 4,000 % u o h t 61 n i ( 3,000 d n a m e 2,000 0.5 MI D 70K 184K e c fi f Office Use Total Jobs O 1,000 0 Tysons Corner Reston Herndon Route 28 North SOURCE: Transwestern Source: www.greenforwardblog.com Source: www.wtop.com The Silver Line – Economic and Office Market Impact – 2014-2040 | 3 ECONOMIC AND OFFICE THE SILVER LINE MARKET IMPACT – 2015-2040 D C u l a 7 ll 28 e i s Gr r TYSONSe CORNERb A en w o s a h y r b n u wy e k r P n m P G r k Fa l w o y u c ester P Recommendation: Developk new office product or w oad Br y la n L renovate Classds Blvd B/C product too Class A near Metro to u n d o u capture demand, which shouldn occur mostly from 2015 C W o ax d 625 u pool R 28 n 267 t to 2030. 28 y Leesburg Pike Sully Rd P k w y Springvale Rd 62528 N Sterling Blvd MARYLAND ROUTE 772/ RYAN ROAD 19328 Tysons Corner is projected to add 56,000 new jobs from28628 B e Drainesville Rd l d m 2015 tov 2040, a 47% increase. This growth rate translates l o B y n r w t ROUTE 606 a k t R s P i to 1.9% d per year, which is above the 10-year historical 193 h y 28 t g t r n o e Dulles Greenway Sterling Rd u R N o annual d growth rate of 1.0% for Fairfax County. C 28 287 28 x 738 a 28 f ir Leesburg Pike 621 a 28 F H u 26728 n Old Ox Rd t 22828 e Ge Of the 56,000 new jobs projected for Tysons Corner, r o rg M e 606 town Pik 28 i 7 e l 28 l approximately 29,100 jobs are expectedINNOVATION to be office R CENTER d HERNDON using. Most growth is projected to occur from 2015 toRESTON 26728 Tysons TOWN WIEHLE- 2030, as 71% of the new officeDULLES using jobs will be created 12328 50 CENTER RESTON Corner AIRPORT Sully Rd during this period. In recent years tenants have allocated EAST SPRING 60828 W HILL on average 200 square feet per employee, e which totals s Reston Pkwy t Centreville Rd O x R GREENSBORO 5.8 million squareJohn feetMosby Hwy of office demand65728 fromd 2015 to MCLEAN L aw ye TYSONS 2040, or 233,000 square feet per year. 286 rs 28 Rd CORNER Lawyers Rd 60628 28 G 50 Polend Rd 28 26728 u Fox Mill Rd m S p r i Number of Office Employees Hunter Mill Rd n WEST g EAST FALLS d 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 v l R B FALLS d CHURCH t 62028 f o 665 CHURCH 0 r 50 28 c 28628 12328 e 65728 DUNN LORING n Lee Jackson Memorial Hwy o VIRGINIA t Sully Rd d S yR e VIENNA 29 ll 2015-2020 a V Lee Hwy t 29 n a s a e l 50 Arlington Blvd 50 2020-2025 P Fairfax Blvd Pleasant Valley Rd 2025-2030 EMPLOYMENT AND OFFICE DEMAND PROJECTIONS Job Growth 2015 2015 2040 2030-2035 to 2040 ENTIRE SUBMARKET 2035-2040 Number of Total Employees 120,200 176,200 56,000 Balance of Submarket Number of Office Employees 62,504 91,624 29,120 Projected Office Demand: 5,824,000 Half Mile of Metro Station SOURCE: Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments, ESRI, Transwestern WITHIN A HALF MILE OF METRO STATION Number of Total Employees 68,400 118,400 50,000 Approximately 89% of the projected office using jobs Number of Office Employees 35,568 61,568 26,000 arriving in Tysons Corner from 2015 to 2040 will be Projected Office Demand: 5,200,000 located within a half mile of the new Metro stations.
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