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Geopolitics of Emerging and Disruptive Technologies

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Geopolitics of Emerging and Disruptive Technologies GEOPOLITICS OF EMERGING AND DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES 1 GEOPOLITICS OF EMERGING AND DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES Michał Rekowski, ToMasz PiekaRz, BaRBaRa szTokfisz, RoBert siudak, izaBela alBRychT, PRzeMysław Roguski, Paweł kosTkiewicz, Maciej siciaRek, kRzyszTof silicki, Magdalena wRzosek, ToMasz dylik, TeodoR BuchneR, joanna ŚwiąTkowska, andRea g. RodRíguez, kaMil Mikulski EDITORS: izaBela alBRychT, Michał Rekowski, kaMil Mikulski AUTHORS: Michał Rekowski TABle of conTenTS International Competition in the Digital Age Tomasz Piekarz Digital Technologies as an Element of Power Barbara Sztokfisz Cyberdiplomacy – a Tool for Building Digital Peace introduCTION ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 7 Robert Siudak New Entities in a Multilateral Cyber World Izabela Albrycht OPENING REMARKS ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 10 The Power of Digital Data Przemysław Roguski, PhD International competition IN The digital age ������������������������������������������ 13 The Geopolitics of Cloud Computing Paweł Kostkiewicz, Maciej Siciarek, Krzysztof Silicki, Magdalena Wrzosek, PhD digital technologies AS AN ELEMENT of power ������������������������������������������ 27 Certification and Standardisation in the Context of Digital Sovereignty Tomasz Dylik Cyberdiplomacy – a tool for BuILDING digital peace ����������������������������� 41 Geopolitics of Digital Belts and Roads Teodor Buchner, PhD NEW ENTITIES in a multilateral Cyber world ����������������������������������������������� 49 Outer Space and Digital Arms Race Joanna Świątkowska, PhD ThE Power of Digital Data ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 57 Offensive Actions in Cyberspace – a Factor Shaping Geopolitical Order Artificial Intelligence – a Driving Force of Geopolitical Changes Andrea G. Rodríguez ThE Geopolitics of ClouD COMPuTING �������������������������������������������������������������� 81 A Roadmap to Quantum: Security and Economic Implications of Quantum Information Technologies Kamil Mikulski Certification and standardisation The Importance of Information in Geopolitical Competition IN ThE contexT OF digital SOvEREIGNTy ������������������������������������������������������������ 91 EDITORS: Izabela Albrycht, Michał Rekowski, Kamil Mikulski COORDINATORS: Michał Rekowski, Kamil Mikulski Geopolitics OF digital belts AND roads ������������������������������������������������������� 103 Copy-editors: Adam Ladziński, Sebastian Gdela L AYOUT AND DTP: Agnieszka Gogola OuTER space and digital ARMS race ����������������������������������������������������������������� 111 PARTNERS: OFFENSIvE actions IN Cyberspace – a factor ShAPING geopolitical ORDER ����������������������������������������������������������� 123 Artificial intelligence – A DRIvING force of geopolitical ChANGES �������������������������������������������������� 133 The present report is a publication by The Kosciuszko Institute. At the same time, the views expressed in the publication are the individual authors’ opinions and should not be taken to represent the official position by The Kosciuszko A Roadmap to QuANTuM: SecuRITy and Economic Institute and the publication partners. The publication contributes to the public debate. Individual authors are Implications of QuANTuM Information Technologies ���������������������� 145 responsible solely for their opinions and their positions cannot be identified with the positions of other report authors. ThE importance OF information IN geopolitical competition ......................................................................................... 153 The Kosciuszko Institute ul. Feldmana 4/9-10 31-130 Krakow, Poland +48 12 632 97 24 www.ik.org.pl © The Kosciuszko Institute [email protected] Krakow 2020 GEOPOLITICS GEOPOLITICS OF EMERGING AND DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES OF EMERGING AND DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES InTRoDucTIon Over the last dozen or so months, the events we’ve witnessed were crystal clear – emerging and dis- ruptive technologies have become an area of the most dogged rivalry between the great powers. The competition is mostly revolving around two centres of gravity – the united States and the People’s Republic of China – but is felt throughout value chains, and may well lead to outcomes that upend the world (digital and non-digital alike) in the form of, on the one hand, decoupling of technolog- ical supply chains, and on the other, the Splinternet. In the last few weeks, we have had the chance to watch this competition stiffen as two oppos- ing initiatives which also have the potential to be seen as “digital power” projection emerged from both centres mentioned above. In August 2020, uS Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced the Clean Network programme was to be ex- panded to block Chinese tech companies with ties to the Chinese Communist Party from ac- cessing the American market and network. Soon after, in September, Pompeo’s counterpart in the People’s Republic of China, Wang yi, announced the Global Initiative on Data Security, set to pro- mote China’s vision of technology governance. And thus the uS-China tech conflict, which is a facet of the broader geopolitical rivalry between both countries, has started to play a principal role in it. yet these events result from the processes which shaped the first two decades of the 21st century. Offensive use of cyberweaponry against other states was demonstrated, from 2007 onwards, in Estonia, Georgia, Iran, and ukraine. The sheer scale of revolution in intelligence capabilities enabled by novel digital tools came as a shock to global public opinion following Edward Snowden revelations in 2013. New forms of digital-driven manipulation found use in breaching the integrity of the demo- cratic process in the world’s oldest democracies, as we could notice during theu S presidential election in 2016. The global debate on allowing Chinese companies to be involved in 5G rollout that was 6 7 GEOPOLITICS GEOPOLITICS OF EMERGING AND DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES OF EMERGING AND DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES sparked off in 2018 has shown the prominence of and ponders whether it will lead to a perma- digital data importance and of digital infrastruc- nent division – the Splinternet. In the next chap- ture integrity, along with the related threats and ter, Tomasz Piekarz presents a conceptualisation dependencies across the technological supply of digital technologies as a component of state chain. The year 2020 itself has brought us an ex- power. In chapter three, Barbara Sztokfisz dis- ponential leap in the use of digital technologies cusses the topic of cyberdiplomacy and analy- across all aspects in social and economic function- ses the most important diplomatic activities that ing of states, institutions, and businesses, leaving centre on technology governance. This strand is no doubt as to the scale, criticality, and diversity of picked up in chapter four by Robert Siudak as he vulnerabilities and weaknesses in the digital world looks closely at new non-state actors which are that we are and will be living in. not only playing a key role in global technology landscape but also taking on paradiplomatic ac- That is why the leaders in America, Europe, Africa, tivities on multi-stakeholder forums more and Asia, and Australia are speaking openly today more vigorously. In chapter five, Izabela Albrycht about digital sovereignty and technological au- carries out a dazzling and thorough analysis of tonomy, while analysts and international observ- the digital data position as the air which the new ers are warning that the spectre of digital world digital world breathes and the most valuable re- split into contending blocs led by two superpow- source which the great powers’ rivalry has at stake. ers, the uSA and the PRC, is becoming hauntingly Przemysław Roguski, PhD, discusses the geopo- real. Today, global technology governance pro- litical dimension of cloud computing in chapter cesses are the area of world-changing geopolit- six. As they are assuming a key position for state ical struggle. To be able to find their way in this and economy cybersecurity, standardisation and ever faster evolving landscape of shifts and threats, certification processes have been given a detailed democratic societies in Europe and the world over treatment by Krzysztof Silicki, Magdalena Wrzosek, need first and foremost to understand in depth PhD, Paweł Kostkiewicz, and Maciej Siciarek in the nature of challenges stemming from the con- chapter seven. Network traffic would not be possi- sequences that technological development has for ble sans the physical infrastructure of digital belts politics and international security. For this reason, and roads, whose geopolitical importance Tomasz The Kosciuszko Institute and CyBERSEC team to- Dylik emphatically shows. Digitalisation and cy- gether with a group of outstanding experts have bersecurity are also vitally significant in the new prepared a report which overviews and analyses geopolitical rivalry in outer space, as chapter nine the geopolitical role of crucial digital technologies. authored by Teodor Buchner, PhD, demonstrates. Convinced that wise decisions and effective actions Joanna Świątkowska, PhD, in chapter ten provides must be preceded by establishing a picture of social an overview of current offensive actions in cyber- reality that is apt and as accurate as possible and by space and analyses
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