19 February 2015: – Tropical Cyclones

Last 7 days accumulation rainfall SITUATION INDONESIA P A P U A N E W (NASA/TRMM) GUINEA TROPICAL CYCLONE LAM • LAM is moving southwest, as a Severe Tropical Cyclone, passing very close to the 19 Feb, 6.00 UTC . On 19 February at 6.00 UTC 148 km/h sust. winds Legend its center was located approx. 10 km west of this island and it had max. sustained 16 Feb Week rainfall (TRMM) 78 mm winds of 148 km/h. 18.00 UTC Value < 100 mm • In the next 24h, it is forecast to move over the coast between Milingimbi and 100 - 200 mm Gapuwiyak in the evening of 19 February, 200 - 300 mm then move inland over , 300 - 400 mm weakening. > 400 mm • As of 19 February, 12.00 UTC (Australian Bureau of Meteorology, BOM), the Tropical Cyclone Warning Zone is from Goulburn Island to Port Roper, including adjacent inland areas to Bulman. Strong winds, 18 Feb heavy rains and storm surge may affect 0.00 UTC these areas on 19-20 February. TROPICAL • MARCIA (previously THIRTEEN) is moving south-southwest, towards the coasts of eastern , intensifying. • On 19 February at 6.00 UTC its center was located approx. 110 km east of Mackay and 19 Feb, 6.00 UTC it had max. sustained winds of 167 km/h. 167 km/h sust. winds • It is forecast to reach the area between St. AUSTRALIA Lawrence and Gladstone in the evening of 19 February, then turn south-southeast, towards Brisbane, moving over land and weakening. 71 mm LAM – Landfall area MARCIA – Landfall area • As of 19 February 12.00 UTC (BOM), the Tropical Cyclone Warning Zone is from 19 Feb, Mackay to Double Island Point, and nearby 6.00 UTC inland areas. Heavy rains, very strong 19 Feb, winds and storm surge may affect these 18.00 UTC 19 Feb, areas on 19-20 February. 6.00 UTC Sources: GDACS (1, 2), JTWC, BOM, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Media 19 Feb, TROPICAL CYCLONE 24h acc. rain 18.00 UTC XX mm (max. sustained winds) observed over 18-19 Feb (WMO) Pop.: 7 237 ≤ 62 km/h î Area of track Pop.: 6 900 uncertainty Pop.: 10 603 Pop.: 28 900 63 – 118 km/h îî Major rivers ≥ 119 km/h îî Major roads 20 Feb, 20 Feb, 6.00 UTC WIND BUFFER Storm Surge 6.00 UTC 64 km/h JRC calculations 92 km/h 2.0 – 3.0 m 120 km/h 1.0 – 2.0 m Low Pressure Area 0.5 – 1.0 m