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High Risk of the Fall Armyworm Invading Into Japan and the Korean Peninsula Via Overseas Migration

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High Risk of the Fall Armyworm Invading Into Japan and the Korean Peninsula Via Overseas Migration bioRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/662387; this version posted June 7, 2019. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder. All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission. 1 High risk of the Fall Armyworm invading into Japan and the Korean Peninsula via 2 overseas migration 3 4 Jian Ma,1,† Yun-Ping Wang,1,† Ming-Fei Wu,1,† Bo-Ya Gao,1,2 Jie Liu,3 Gwan-Seok 5 Lee4, Akira Otuka,5 and Gao Hu1* 6 7 1 College of Plant Protection, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China 8 2 Centre of Ecology and Conservation, University of Exeter, Penryn, Cornwall TR10 9 9FE, UK 10 3 Division of Pest Forecasting, China National Agro-Tech Extension and Service 11 Center, Beijing 100026, China 12 4 Department of Crop Protection, National Institute of Agricultural Sciences, Wanju 13 55365, Korea 14 5Institute of Agricultural Machinery, National Agriculture and Food Research 15 Organization, Tsukuba 3058517, Japan 16 † These authors have contributed equally to this work 17 * Correspondence to: Gao HU, 1 Weigang Road, Nanjing 210095, China. E-mail: 18 [email protected] 19 Akira Otuka, E-mail: [email protected] 1 bioRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/662387; this version posted June 7, 2019. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder. All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission. 20 Abstract 21 The fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) is an emerging and most severe 22 pest species in the Old World. It is originally native in the Americas. Since 2016 it has 23 spread widely and rapidly to throughout Africa, the Middle East, India, Southeast Asia and 24 most recently southern China. By May 2019 it has appeared in 13 provinces in most 25 southern China and would spread further to northern China. It is highly likely that S. 26 frugiperda would enter into Japan and Korea via overseas migrations as many other 27 migratory pests did before. To evaluate the invasion risk of S. frugiperda into Japan and 28 Korean Peninsula, we modelled the rate of expansion and future potential migratory range 29 of the insect by a trajectory analytical approach with flight behaviour of S. frugiperda 30 implemented, and meteorological data of past five years (2014–2018) used. Our results 31 predicted that S. frugiperda would migrate from southern and eastern China into Japan 32 and Korea soon. Most likely, Japan would be invaded from Fujian and Zhejiang on 1 June 33 – 15 July, and Kyushu, Shikoku and south-western Honshu could face the highest risk of S. 34 frugiperda’s invasion. Korea would be most possibly reached by S. frugiperda from 35 northern Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Anhui, and Shandong on 1 June – 15 July and later. Our 36 results indicated a very high risk that S. frugiperda would annually invade Japan and the 37 Korean Peninsula and cause a possible significant decrease in agricultural productivity. 38 Keywords: Spodoptera frugiperda, Asian migration arena, East Asian monsoon, invasive 39 species, trajectory analysis 2 bioRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/662387; this version posted June 7, 2019. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder. All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission. 40 1 INTRODUCTION 41 The fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (J. E. Smith) is an emerging and most severe 42 pest species in the Old World. It is an omnivorous pest native to the tropical and 43 subtropical regions of the Americas (Luginbill,1928; Sparks,1979). S. frugiperda has the 44 characteristics of strong migration ability, high reproduction, gluttony, and difficulty in 45 prevention and control (Johnson, 1987; Early, Gonzalez-Moreno, Murphy & Day, 2018; 46 Jiang, Luo, Zhang, Sappington & Hu, 2019). Its host range is extensively wide, including 47 corn, rice, wheat, and more than 180 kinds of other crops, vegetables, ornamental plants, 48 fruits (Casmuz et al., 2010). This insect was known as a super pest of the UN Food and 49 Agriculture Organization Global Alert (FAO, 2018). 50 With the rapid expansion of international trade, S. frugiperda first invaded Nigeria and 51 Ghana in Africa in 2016 (Goergen et al., 2016; Cock et al., 2017). In the following two 52 years, it swept through 44 countries in sub-Saharan Africa (Nagoshi et al., 2018; 53 Rwomushana et al., 2018), caused heavy losses to African food production (Stokstad & 54 Erik, 2017). In May 2018, S. frugiperda was first found in India (Sharanabasappa et al., 55 2018), then spread rapidly to other Asian countries including Thailand, Sri Lanka, 56 Bangladesh, Myanmar, Vietnam, Laos and China (Guo, Zhao, He, Zhang & Wang, 2018; 57 Wu, Jiang & Wu, 2019a; NATESC, 2019ab). On 11 January, 2019, the first confirmation of 58 the invasion of S. frugiperda was made in Yunnan Province, China (Jiang & Zhu, 2019; 59 NATESC, 2019a). By May 2019, S. frugiperda has spread in most province in southern 60 China, including Yunnan, Guangxi, Guizhou, Guangdong, Hunan, Hainan, Fujian, 61 Zhejiang, Hubei, Sichuan, Jiangxi, Chongqing, and Henan provinces (NATESC, 2019c). 3 bioRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/662387; this version posted June 7, 2019. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder. All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission. 62 Its long-distance migration will significantly increase the risk of spread. According to the 63 forecast results, by July 2019, it is highly possible that S. frugiperda would reach the main 64 corn-producing areas of in North China and Northeast China (Wu & Wu, 2019; Li et 65 al.,2019). 66 The Japanese Islands and the Korean Peninsula as well as eastern China belong to 67 the East Asian migration arena. Their geographical location, ecological environment, and 68 climatic conditions are closely connected each other. Many seasonal pests, such as rice 69 planthoppers (Nilaparvata lugens, Sogatella furcifera and Laodelphax striatellus) and the 70 oriental armyworm, Mythimna separata, can migrate from China to the Japanese Islands 71 and the Korean Peninsula by flying overseas (Otuka, 2013, 2015; Kisimoto & Sogawa, 72 1995; Hirai, 1995; Lee & Uhm, 1995). The population size of migratory pests in source 73 areas can be directly predict their occurrence level in destination areas (Watanabe, Seino, 74 Kitamura, Hirai, 1990). Now that S. frugiperda has arrived in Southeast Asia and southern 75 China, there is a high possibility that they would invade Japan and Korea soon. The 76 invasion of S. frugiperda has seriously threatened the production of local corn and other 77 crops and food security. Thus, it is urgent to predict an invasion risk of S. frugiperda into 78 Japan and Korea. 79 To estimate a first-invasion risk of S. frugiperda into Japan and Korea, this study 80 conducted a three-dimensional trajectory analysis for recent five years, 2014-2018. We 81 simulated migration paths of S. frugiperda to provide the probability of their arrivals. This 82 study presents a scientific basis for monitoring and early warning of S. frugiperda in Japan 83 and Korea. 4 bioRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/662387; this version posted June 7, 2019. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder. All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission. 84 2 MATERIALS AND METHODS 85 We estimated potential endpoints of S. frugiperda migrations by calculating forward 86 flight trajectories from source areas where S. frugiperda are currently, as of May 2019, 87 known to be breeding, or from potential future source areas we predicted they would 88 reproduce shortly in our previous study (Li et al., 2019). A numerical trajectory model was 89 developed and used successfully for S. frugiperda and many other insect migrants, such 90 as the corn earworm Helicoverpa zea, M. separata, and the rice leaf roller Cnaphalocrocis 91 medinalis (Li et al., 2019, Wu et al., 2018, Wang et al., 2017). This method takes account 92 of flight behaviour and self-powered flight vectors, as these are known to alter trajectory 93 pathways substantially. The trajectory calculation is conducted with 94 high-spatiotemporal-resolution weather data simulated by a numerical weather prediction 95 model. 96 2.1 Weather Research and Forecasting model 97 The Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) (version 3.8, 98 www.wrf-model.org) were used to produce a high-resolution atmospheric background for 99 trajectory calculation. In this study, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction 100 (NCEP) Final Analysis (FNL) data were 6-hourly, global, 1-degree grid meteorological data 101 that was used as initial field data and boundary conditions for WRF. The hourly initial and 102 boundary conditions were simulated by WRF to run the three-dimensional trajectory 103 program for S. frugiperda, which had a spatial resolution of 30 km. Calculation schemes 104 and parameters for WRF modelling are listed in Table 1. 105 2.3 Trajectory modelling of S. frugiperda 5 bioRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/662387; this version posted June 7, 2019. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder. All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission. 106 Based on biological characteristics of the migration of S. frugiperda, trajectories were 107 calculated with following parameters. (i) S. frugiperda flies downwind at high altitude (Wolf, 108 Westbrook, Raulston & Lingren,1995; Nagoshi, Meagher, Fleischer, 2009), without 109 considering a directional deflection angle (Li et al.,2019). (ii) A self-powered flight vector of 110 3.0 m/s was added to wind speed in the trajectory modelling (Westbrook et al.,2007; Li et 111 al.,2019).
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