e Research nc e n g ii l ll ee tt nn I I i c c i i g g e e t t Joint Military a a cial policy or position of the ect the offi r r t t Intelligence College S S r o f r e t n e C r o f r e t n e C 29 September 2005 Department of Defense or the U.S. Government Conference Proceedings and do not refl A Conference on Intelligence Reform Conference A The views expressed in these remarks are those of the authors are in these remarks The views expressed JMIC-ODNI CONFERENCE 2005 Managing the Future During a Time of Change: Time During a Managing the Future Remarks by employees of the Department of Defense have been approved for public release by the Offi ce of Freedom of Information and Security Review, Washington Headquarters Services. The Joint Military Intelligence College supports and encourages research that distills lessons and improves Intelligence Community capabilities for policy-level and operational consumers. The editor wishes to thank Sonar Technician Submarine Second Class Jermaine Armstrong, U.S. Navy, former student at the Joint Military Intelligence College, for his profi cient work in transcribing and preliminary editing of these proceedings. [email protected], Editor Center for Strategic Intelligence Research ii CONTENTS Letter of Welcome from Co-Hosts ....................................................................... v Seal of the ODNI .................................................................................................. vi Seal of the JMIC ................................................................................................... vii JMIC Overview .................................................................................................... viii Conference Program ............................................................................................. ix Welcoming Remarks, A. Denis Clift, President, JMIC ......................................... 1 Opening Address, Vice Admiral Lowell E. Jacoby, Director, DIA ....................... 5 Morning Keynote Speaker, Ambassador John D. Negroponte, DNI .................... 11 First Panel Discussion ........................................................................................... 24 Ms. Deborah G. Barger ................................................................................... 25 Mr. Christopher A. Kojm ................................................................................ 28 Mr. Russell E. Travers ..................................................................................... 32 Ms. Letitia A. Long ......................................................................................... 40 Luncheon Speaker, Dr. William M. Nolte, Chancellor, NIUS .............................. 56 Afternoon Keynote Speaker, Dr. Steven A. Cambone, USD(I) ............................ 67 Second Panel Discussion ...................................................................................... 80 Mr. Jon A. Wiant ............................................................................................. 81 Mr. Marion E. “Spike” Bowman ..................................................................... 85 Mr. Charles E. Allen ........................................................................................ 90 Closing Remarks, Dr. Teresa J. Domzal, Provost, JMIC ...................................... 103 iii DEFENSE INTELLIGENCE AGENCY JOINT MILITARY INTELLIGENCE COLLEGE Washington, D.C. 20340-5100 29 September 2005 Dear Conference Attendees: On behalf of the Offi ce of the Director of National Intelligence and the Joint Military Intelligence College, we take great pleasure in welcoming you to our conference, “Managing the Future During a Time of Change: A Conference on Intelligence Reform.” We hope that the dialogue and exchange of ideas generated over the course of the day will help articulate the challenges of intelligence reform and help chart the way ahead. It gives us much satisfaction to greet such a diverse audience of academia, industry, defense, media, and intelligence professionals. Your experience, perspectives, and talents demonstrate the strength of American intelligence and give us reason to hope the best for its future. We encourage you to participate fully in this conference, especially during the question and answer periods following each address and panel discussion. Please take advantage of the day’s opportunities to meet and talk with the panelists and your fellow attendees; as at many conferences, much of the “real business” before us will surely get done during the breaks. Again, welcome. Deborah G. Barger A. Denis Clift Assistant Deputy Director President of National Intelligence for Joint Military Intelligence College Strategy, Plans, and Policy v The Seal of the Offi ce of the Director for National Intelligence (ODNI) The ODNI seal represents the DNI’s charge to oversee and coordinate the foreign and domestic activities of the U.S. Intelligence Community. Prominently positioned in the center of the seal is the American bald eagle. Derived from this nation’s Great Seal, the eagle represents the sovereignty of the United States. The shield, or escutcheon, in front of the eagle is composed of 13 red and white stripes. The colors of the seal on the eagle’s chest are those used in the fl ag of the United States of America (white, signifying purity and innocence; red, hardiness and valor). The motto, E Pluribus Unum (one out of many), alludes to the new offi ce uniting the many intelligence agencies. The olive branch and 13 arrows denote the power of peace and war. Watermarked on the back of the seal, in dark blue (blue signifying vigilance, perseverance, and justice), is a globe of the world. The depiction of the globe symbolizes the constant and ongoing worldwide intelligence efforts of the ODNI and our nation’s intelligence organizations to keep America safe. The 50 white stars encircling the globe and the eagle represent each state of the Union and the vast array of intelligence organizations that fall within the purview of the ODNI’s mission. Encircling the 50 stars and between two gold mullets is a dark blue fi eld with inscribed gold lettering, “Offi ce of the Director of National Intelligence” at the top and “United States of America” below. The gold represents integrity and the highest ideals and goals. vi The Crest of the Joint Military Intelligence College (JMIC) The crest symbolizes the JMIC’s mission. The arrows represent the Armed Services’ participation in joint intelligence education. The armillary sphere signifi es the worldwide land, sea, and air scope of intelligence. The lamp indicates the teaching and research missions of the College, while the scroll symbolizes continual learning. The oak leaves depict thoroughness and tenacity of purpose and success in accomplishment. The three colors of the crest are blue for the Department of Defense, and gold and black for intelligence. vii The Joint Military Intelligence College The Joint Military Intelligence College was chartered by the Department of Defense in 1962, with the dual mission to educate military and civilian intelligence professionals and those seeking to become intelligence professionals, and to conduct and disseminate intelligence-related research. The College’s Bachelor of Science in Intelligence degree and Master of Science of Strategic Intelligence degree are both authorized in law by the Congress. The College is accredited by the Middle States Commission on Higher Education and is a member of the Consortium of Universities of the Washington Metropolitan Area. Among the nation’s federally chartered colleges and universities, the College has the distinction of annually awarding both graduate and undergraduate degrees. The College is educating and guiding research in an era where the formerly dominant challenges of understanding force-on-force foreign military capabilities and intentions have been subsumed in a far broader spectrum of intelligence challenges and requirements. While it remains essential to have expert understanding of each of the world’s nuclear and conventional military forces, we are now in an era where it is essential to know something of intelligence value about every subject, every issue of interest to the nation. In a cyber- and information-era world marked by failed and failing nation states, religious and cultural confl icts, the proliferation of conventional weapons and weapons of mass destruction, and virulent international terrorism, the future intelligence leaders the College is educating must have an appreciation of regional cultures, religions, and politics as well as the smoldering tinder of intentions and the sparks of confl ict. In a strategic environment where U.S. forces with their allied and coalition partners are called upon to provide forward deterrence, produce forward stability, and ward off threats to the U.S. homeland, there is virtually no geography, no political, cultural, ideological, or religious presence anywhere, that is not of relevance to the intelligence professional. Today’s student and today’s researcher, recognizing the essential requirement for intelligence to provide reliable strategic warning—warning against threats and warning spotlighting opportunity—must understand the exhaustive research involved in developing such warning, the need to discern emerging threats of seemingly low probability, and the need for collection against such threats including the ability to penetrate those who would deny and those who would deceive. Today’s student and today’s researcher