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China Financial Stability Report 2020 LIANG Tao ZOU Jiayi PAN Gongsheng Gongsheng PAN LI Wei LUO Rui SUN Guofeng Ling TAO WEN Xinxiang ZHU Jun

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China Financial Stability Report 2020 LIANG Tao ZOU Jiayi PAN Gongsheng Gongsheng PAN LI Wei LUO Rui SUN Guofeng Ling TAO WEN Xinxiang ZHU Jun Financial Stability Analysis Group of PBC China Financial Stability Report 2020 Chair PAN Gongsheng Members HUO Yingli LI Wei LI Wensen LUO Rui RUAN Jianhong SUN Guofeng SUN Tianqi TAO Ling WANG Xin WEN Xinxiang ZHOU Xuedong ZHU Jun ZOU Lan Steering Group PAN Gongsheng LIANG Tao LI Chao ZOU Jiayi China Financial Stability Report 2020 Contributors to This Report Chief Editors SUN Tianqi HUANG Xiaolong WEN Hongwu YANG Liu MENG Hui Editors YANG Liu NA Lili Authors Executive Summary: NA Lili LIU Tong Chapter I: SHEN Changye CHEN Jun ZHANG Ruochan GU Yurao WANG Lei SHEN Lin Special Topic 1: NA Lili Special Topic 2: ZAN Guojiang DU Jinyue Special Topic 3: YAN Shen Chapter II: LI Guan QIU Xia ZHOU Yi LIANG Shuang LIU Yao Special Topic 4: ZHOU Yuan WANG Huansen WANG Yaqi Special Topic 5: XIE Fei Special Topic 6: LIANG Shuang Special Topic 7: ZHANG Rong Special Topic 8: LU Chongwei LIU Tong LOU Dan Special Topic 9: LIU Qin CHEN Wei JI Lei Chapter III: LIU Tong LIU Zheng WANG Wenjing XU Wei MA Xinbin LI Kaining CHEN Ning WU Wenguang ZHAO Shengjiang Special Topic 10: ZHAO Wen Special Topic 11: WEI Wei Special Topic 12: WANG Xiaoqing WU Wenguang ZHAO Shengjiang GAN Haonan Special Topic 13: DONG Yiwei XU Wei Special Topic 14: CHEN Min WANG Guanglong LI Kaining Special Topic 15: HUANG Jiansheng TIAN Tian Special Topic 16: OUYANG Changmin ZHANG Wan Special Topic 17: LIU Hao SUN Haoyuan CHEN Bo JI Lei Special Topic 18: CHEN Ning China Financial Stability Report 2020 Special Topic 19: ZHOU Yi Special Topic 20: MIAO Mengmeng LOU Dan WANG Ruitong JIANG Jingjing HE Kun Appendix: LI Ziyan ZHANG Guo MAO Qizheng ZHAO Pengfei ZHANG Zhe LU Chongwei Other Contributors CHEN Shuang CHEN Xi HAO Zhihui JU Shan XU Zunwei YANG Rongjun YANG Yang ZHAO Shiyu China Financial Stability Report 2020 Contributors to English Edition Chief Editors SUN Tianqi YANG Liu Editors NA Lili Translators Executive Summary: MA Hui Chapter I: CHEN Song Special Topic 1: NA Lili Special Topic 2: CHEN Wei Special Topic 3: CHEN Song Chapter II: LU Leilei Special Topic 4: LIU Tong Special Topic 5: FENG Lei Special Topic 6: LIU Tong Special Topic 7: FENG Lei Special Topic 8: LU Leilei Special Topic 9: CHEN Wei Chapter III: LIU Tong Special Topic 10: CHEN Song Special Topic 11: LIU Tong Special Topic 12: FENG Lei Special Topic 13: FENG Lei Special Topic 14: LIU Tong Special Topic 15: LIU Qin Special Topic 16: LIU Qin Special Topic 17: CHEN Wei Special Topic 18: CHEN Wei Special Topic 19: LIU Tong Special Topic 20: WANG Ruitong Appendix: LI Ziyan Other Contributors HAO Zhihui LIU Zheng SHEN Changye SUN Yinhao ZHANG Xiaoyu ZHOU Yi Executive Summary hina’s economy and financial system has been confronted with mounting Cexternal pressures since 2019, as the global political and economic landscape has become more complex and graver. Nevertheless, guided by the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability and the philosophy of new development, the financial system, focusing on the three major tasks of serving the real economy, mitigating financial risks and deepening financial reforms, implemented a sound monetary policy, took decisive measures to prevent and dissolve major financial risks, continued to deepen supply side structural reforms of the financial sector, and improved financial management and services, with a view to promoting high quality economic development by creating favorable monetary and financial conditions. In 2019, China’s GDP grew by 6.1 percent y-o-y, 3.2 percentage points higher than the world average, and making China one of the top performers among the major economies. The employment remained stable, the balance of payments was in general equilibrium, and the foreign exchange reserves increased slightly. Such achievements are hard won, in particular against the backdrop of tepid global economic growth. In 2020, the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has exerted unprecedented impact on China and the world at large, triggering a severe recession of the world economy, disrupting the global supply chain, reducing global trade and investment flows and causing turbulences in the commodity market. China’s economy contracted by 6.8 percent in the first quarter. Consumption, investment and exports fell, weighing heavily on the employment. Enterprises, in particular small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) and micro businesses, have experienced acute difficulties. Risks, including in the financial system, have intensified. Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee, attaching great importance to coordinating pandemic prevention and economic and social development, spoke on this important topic for several times and deployed policy responses in person. In line with the overall arrangements by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, the financial regulatory agencies have made all-out efforts to mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The measures include maintaining reasonably adequate liquidity in the financial system, guiding market interest rates to go down, increasing quotas on central bank lending and discounting, launching the uncollateralized lending scheme and the loans repayment deferral scheme for SMEs and micro businesses. Such policy responses have yielded positive results. The GDP achieved positive growth in the first three quarters, and the national economy continued to recover steadily, which fully demonstrated the strong resilience and the huge room for maneuver of China's economy. Notwithstanding the achievements, we are fully aware of the difficulties ahead of us. Internationally, the world economy is still undergoing profound changes since the global financial crisis, with intertwining long-term and short-term problems, interacting structural and cyclical factors and entangling economic and political issues. In addition, affected by adverse factors such as concerning evolvement of the COVID-19 pandemic elsewhere in the world, and rising protectionism and unilateralism in some countries, China will have to seek development in a less stable world with more uncertainties. Domestically, China is making strenuous efforts to transform the development paradigm, optimize the economic structure and shift the growth dynamics. As structural, institutional and cyclical problems interact with one another, there are still some weaknesses in achieving high-quality development. Impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, debt default risk of some corporates has been on the rise, which might spread onto the financial system. As a result, the financial system will face more difficulties and risks going forward. In line with the overall arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council as well as the specific requirements of the Financial Stability and Development Committee, the People’s Bank of China (PBC) worked with other related government authorities to resolutely prevent and dissolve major financial risks, and important progress has been made. First, the rapid growth momentum of the macro leverage ratio has been contained. Efforts have been made to control aggregate money supply and advance structural deleveraging. The excessively fast growth of the macro leverage ratio has therefore been put under effective control, which has created room for adopting countercyclical measures in response to COVID-19 pandemic. Second, risks of high-risk financial institutions have been dealt with in an orderly manner. The PBC adopted tailored measures to address the major risks stemming from Baoshang Bank, Hengfeng Bank and Bank of Jinzhou, which also helped strengthen market disciplines. Third, corporate default risk has been properly handled. Banking institutions have been encouraged to intensify the efforts to deal with non-performing loans (NPLs) and to improve the mechanism to settle defaulted bonds. Fourth, risks of Internet finance and illicit fund-raising have been comprehensively addressed. The number and size of Internet-based P2P lending platforms have been reduced sharply, illicit fund- raising activities have been severely clamped down and the rectification of various trading exchanges has been steadily and orderly promoted. Fifth, institutional arrangements have been improved to mitigate financial risks. The stipulation and smooth implementation of the Guidelines on Regulating Asset Management Business of Financial Institutions and its complementary rules has helped contain the disorderly development of shadow banking. An integrated regulatory framework for systemically important financial institutions, financial holding companies and financial infrastructures has taken shape, and the comprehensive statistics for the financial sector have been advanced steadily. The new Securities Law has come into effect as the reforms of the capital market have been deepened. In general, the new risks in the key areas of the financial system have been effectively controlled, while the existing risks have been gradually dissolved. The financial risks are generally controllable, and the bottom line of preventing systemic financial risks has been preserved. Despite the complex economic and financial situation at home and abroad, the fundamental features of China’s economy such as huge potential, strong resilience, large room for maneuver and a large number of available policy instruments remain unchanged, and our resolution to deepen reform and opening up remains unchanged. We will look at the current difficulties, risks and challenges through a comprehensive, dialectic and long-term perspective, use reforms to champion changes and to better
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