DISASTER for a Burgeoning Group of Scientists Building Equity Into Hazard Research, People Are a Crucial—And Often Missing—Data Point

VOL. 102 | NO. 3 MARCH 2021 The Beringia Standstill

Dirty Trees Feed the Water Cycle

Safe—and Sticky— Lava Studies

BEFORE AND AFTER THE DISASTER For a burgeoning group of scientists building equity into hazard research, people are a crucial—and often missing—data point.

FROM THE EDITOR

Editor in Chief Building Equity Heather Goss, [email protected] A G U S t a Vice President, Communications, Amy Storey into Hazard Research Marketing,and Media Relations

here is growing recognition that the effects of Editorial Manager, News and Features Editor Caryl-Sue Micalizio natural hazards are unequally distributed across Science Editor Timothy Oleson the population and that certain communities face News and Features Writer Kimberly M. S. Cartier “T Jenessa Duncombe greater challenges in accessing resources to prepare for, News and Features Writer respond to, and recover from disasters,” said Michelle Hum- Production & Design mel, an assistant professor at the University of Texas at Manager, Production and Operations Faith A. Ishii Arlington and the Eos Science Adviser from AGU’s Natural Production and Analytics Specialist Anaise Aristide Hazards section. Hummel proposed the idea for our March Assistant Director, Design & Branding Beth Bagley issue theme on increasing equity in the way we deal with haz- Senior Graphic Designer Valerie Friedman Senior Graphic Designer J. Henry Pereira ards and disasters. We reached out to scientists across a spectrum of fields who Marketing are all working toward the same goal. Alessandra Jerolleman Communications Specialist Maria Muekalia Assistant Director, Marketing & Advertising Liz Zipse writes on page 21 about the need to better understand how disasters hit rural areas. These communities often have outdated building and zoning codes Advertising and face administrative challenges in applying for aid but can also be exceptionally adaptable Display Advertising Steve West because of a strong sense of self- reliance. On the whole, policymakers just don’t have enough [email protected] Recruitment Advertising [email protected] social science research to incorporate with geohazard data to better assist these areas. Jerol- leman offers several approaches for scientists and local leaders to follow. Science Advisers Eric Tate and Christopher Emrich are providing a great example of just this kind of approach. Geomagnetism, Paleomagnetism, Julie Bowles On page 24 they discuss their work incorporating social vulnerability assessments into hazard and Electromagnetism models. They aim to inform better mitigation planning as well as recovery programs. Our Space Physics and Aeronomy Christina M. S. Cohen Cryosphere Ellyn Enderlin reporting on that intersection of science and policy in “Natural Hazards Have Unnatural Study of the Earth’s Deep Interior Edward J. Garnero Impacts—What More Can Science Do?” on page 36 also looks at better mitigation efforts. Geodesy Brian C. Gunter “I was really encouraged to learn about FEMA’s Building Resilient Infrastructure and Com- History of Geophysics Kristine C. Harper munities program, which focuses on predisaster mitigation and incentivizes projects that Planetary Sciences Sarah M. Hörst Natural Hazards Michelle Hummel account for social vulnerability and future climate change,” said Hummel. “This is a great Volcanology, Geochemistry, and Petrology Emily R. Johnson example of how scientists and policymakers can come together to pass forward- looking leg- Societal Impacts and Policy Sciences Christine Kirchho islation that helps communities prepare for future hazards.” Seismology Keith D. Koper Tectonophysics Jian Lin Finally, we take a look at the Global Earthquake Model Foundation in Italy on page 30. The Near-Surface Geophysics Juan Lorenzo group’s mission is to make the world more resilient to earthquakes, and a crucial part of that Earth and Space Science Informatics Kirk Martinez is incorporating the human element into their model. Read more about their enormous under- Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology Figen Mekik Mineral and Rock Physics Sébastien Merkel taking to collect information on population locations, economic compositions, building den- Ocean Sciences Jerry L. Miller sity, and zoning codes around the world—and then put every last bit into a simulation to shake Global Environmental Change Hansi Singh around. Education Eric M. Riggs Hydrology Kerstin Stahl I’d like to thank Tiegan Hobbs and Leah Salditch, who are leading a new Hazards Equity Tectonophysics Carol A. Stein Working Group at AGU. “The group focuses on how science can be used to help communities Atmospheric Sciences Mika Tosca and policymakers address the need for equity in natural disaster mitigation,” said Hummel. Nonlinear Geophysics Adrian Tuck Biogeosciences Merritt Turetsky “It also explores ways by which its efforts may help in fostering participation and inclusion of Hydrology Adam S. Ward underrepresented groups in natural hazards science and increasing the diversity of the natu- Diversity and Inclusion Lisa D. White ral hazards community.” Earth and Planetary Surface Processes Andrew C. Wilcox Hobbs and Salditch, along with Hummel, directed us to many of the scientists doing import- Atmospheric and Space Electricity Yoav Yair GeoHealth Ben Zaitchik ant work in this area who are featured in this issue. We’re proud to highlight their work and look forward to seeing how this movement grows. ©2021. AGU. All Rights Reserved. Material in this issue may be photocopied by individual scientists for research or classroom use. Permission is also granted to use short quotes, fi gures, and tables for publication in scientifi c books and journals. For permission for any other uses, contact the AGU Publications O ce. Eos (ISSN 0096-3941) is published monthly by AGU, 2000 Florida Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20009, USA. Periodical Class postage paid at Washington, D.C., and at additional mailing o ces. POSTMASTER: Send address changes to Member Service Center, 2000 Florida Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20009, USA Member Service Center: 8:00 a.m.–6:00 p.m. Eastern time; Tel: +1-202-462-6900; Fax: +1-202-328-0566; Tel. orders in U.S.: 1-800-966-2481; [email protected]. Heather Goss, Editor in Chief Submit your article proposal or suggest a news story to Eos at bit.ly/Eos-proposal. Views expressed in this publication do not necessarily refl ect o cial positions of AGU unless expressly stated. Randy Fiser, Executive Director/CEO

SCIENCE NEWS BY AGU // Eos.org 1 CONTENT

24 36

Features

24 Assessing Social Equity 30 Where Do People Fit in Natural Disasters into a Global Hazard Model? By Eric Tate and Christopher Emrich By Richard J. Sima

Incorporating vulnerability studies into hazard This earthquake simulation incorporates your census research can reveal the inequities in mitigation data and a whole lot more. and response. 36 Natural Hazards Have On the Cover Unnatural Impacts—What A sign near the ocean in Lima, Peru, warns of danger More Can Science Do? in a tsunami hazard zone. Credit: ©Morganeborzee/ Dreamstime.com By Korena Di Roma Howley

“The approach we were taking was extremely ineffective and also extremely unjust.”

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Columns

From the Editor Opinion 1 Building Equity into Hazard Research 19 How to Combat Bullying and Discrimination in the Geosciences News 21 Building Resilience in Rural America 5 Overturning in the Pacific May Have Enabled a “Standstill” in Beringia Research Spotlight 6 Modeling the Creation of Cratons, Earth’s Secret 42 Tracking How Plastic Moves in the Coastal Ocean Keepers 43 A Census of Snowdrifts in Northern Alaska | Drivers 7 European Colonists Dramatically Increased of Upper Atmosphere Climate Change North American Erosion Rates 44 New Insights into Uncertainties About Earth’s Rising 8 To Make Better Hurricane Models, Consider Temperature | A New Approach to Characterizing Air Pollution Space Plasmas 9 Corn Syrup Reveals How Bubbles Affect Lava’s Flow 10 Waterways Change as Nearby Cities Grow 11 Dirty Trees Shape Earth’s Hydrologic Positions Available and Carbon Cycles 45 Current job openings in the Earth and space sciences 12 New Volcano, Old Caldera 14 Long-Term Drought Harms Mental Health Postcards from the Field in Rural Communities 16 Tracing the Moisture That Nourishes the World’s 49 A glimpse of the otherworldly “lakescape” at the Highest Glacier bottom of the Middle Island Sinkhole in Lake Huron. 17 Earth’s Magnetic Field Holds Clues to Human History

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SCIENCE NEWS BY AGU // Eos.org 3 4 Eos // MARCH 2021 NEWS

Overturning in the Pacific May Have Enabled a “Standstill” in Beringia

Rae thinks his results confirm the exis- tence of a PMOC. Running the climate models with a PMOC showed that the ocean’s surface layer would become depleted in nutrients because it would consist of water from the subtropics, where year-round stratification and unfavorable wind stress restrict nutrient supply from below. And indeed, cores taken from shallower depths, from the Asian and American continental slopes and from the flanks of seamounts, had so far shown that during the LGM the surface water of the North Pacific contained fewer nutrients than it does The forbidding Bering Strait, which today separates Asia (left) and North America, may once have had a warmer today. climate that allowed for settlement. Credit: SeaWiFS Project, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, and ORBIMAGE Beringian Standstill and Human Migration Rae happened to read an article about the lanet Earth pulled out all the stops, it ional overturning circulation (PMOC) pattern Beringian Standstill in Science (bit.ly/ seems, to enable the first humans to was active. The proposed PMOC functioned Beringian-standstill) and applied his results Preach North America. When a glacial much like the Atlantic version, the AMOC, to the concept. “I became aware of this idea period lowered sea levels and turned parts of which today gives western Europe its temper- that people may have lived in Beringia in the the Bering Strait into a land bridge, a warm ate climate. The AMOC is driven by cold and peak of the last Ice Age. And there is some ocean current shielded that region from the salty, and hence dense, water sinking near indication from pollen and things like fossil worst cold, turning it into a refuge where the Arctic, pulling in warm surface water from beetles that the climate there might have ancestors of the first Americans found shelter the south while itself streaming southward been surprisingly mild,” he said. for thousands of years. below the surface currents. Rae’s models showed that the PMOC Evidence of that current, which doesn’t Oceanographers have wondered why today would have given Beringia a regional climate exist today, was published recently in Science there isn’t such a conveyor belt for heat in the that was vastly more welcoming than any- Advances (bit.ly/Pacific-overturning). North Pacific. In fact, even today’s climate thing to the east or west. Conditions were That there was a “Beringian Standstill” models sometimes switch Earth into a mode even milder than John Hoffecker, one of the in the trek between the continents is sug- where there’s a PMOC instead of an AMOC. In authors of the Science article and a researcher gested by DNA differences between Native such cases, models are normally nudged to at the University of Colorado Boulder, Americans and Asians. These differences represent Earth as we know it by increasing expected. suggest that it’s been about 25,000 years the net amount of fresh water the Pacific Hoffecker cautioned, however, that since the two populations diverged. But sci- receives as rain, thanks to water vapor being although Rae’s results support the idea of a entists know that humans likely spread out blown west across the isthmus of Panama. northern refugium for people in Beringia, it across the Americas only about 15,000 years This phenomenon makes Pacific water less doesn’t clinch the case. “We still can’t con- ago. salty and thus less dense. firm that people were actually present in One possible explanation for this discrep- For his study, Rae did the reverse in a num- Beringia during the LGM,” he said. “And, ancy is that the migration from Asia to the ber of different climate models, until a PMOC even if we can eventually confirm a human Americas stalled in Beringia, a region now arose. He compared the results with what was presence, we will have to confirm that they submerged by the Bering Sea. The new study, known about past conditions in the ocean, represented the Native American founder led by James Rae of the University of culled from sediment cores containing the population.” St Andrews in the United Kingdom, suggests remains of tiny shelled organisms called for- why ancient migrants may have found aminifera. Beringia an attractive place to settle. “Rather Such cores are relatively hard to come by By Bas den Hond (bas@stellarstories.com), than being this harsher version of modern because the Pacific is “not surrounded by as Science Writer Kamchatka and Siberia, it might actually have many oceanographic institutes as the North been more like Scotland,” Rae said. Atlantic,” Rae said. The Pacific is also deeper and more acidic—and both pressure and Proposing a PMOC acidity promote the dissolving of the carbon- u Read the latest news Rae’s analysis of sediment cores and climate ate shells of foraminifera. “Most of the ocean at Eos.org model calculations suggests that during the floor is just red clay, barren of any foram Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), a Pacific merid- shells,” Rae said.

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Modeling the Creation of Cratons, Earth’s Secret Keepers

he continents, the solid blocks of land “This is a very nice study that unifies many beneath our feet, weren’t always as parts of the complicated story of craton for- Tstrong as they’ve come to be. Scientists mation,” said Lijun Liu, a geodynamicist at the from Monash University in Australia have University of Illinois at Urbana- Champaign devised a new mechanism to explain how the not involved in the research. “Because it’s a roots of the continents—cratons—came to be. numerical model, it comprehensively brings Using numerical models to simulate the con- together many parts [of craton formation] that ditions of Archean era Earth, the researchers’ were hard to reconcile previously.” But, he findings, published in Nature, show that a added, this mechanism doesn’t explain the strong base for the continents emerged from entire story of cratonic origins. the melting and stretching of the cratonic “It sets the stage for the right material,” lithospheric mantle (bit.ly/cratonic-mantle). said Cooper. But scientists know that cratons Cratons form the base of continents and are extremely thick, and she said that this hold the title of the oldest existing portion of mechanism doesn’t fully explain how that the lithosphere. They’re extremely thick and By studying peridotite xenoliths (like this garnet lher- happened. “This is a great way to form the began to form up to 3 billion years ago, in the zolite) that come from cratonic lithospheric mantle, material that needs to be thickened later, or Archean eon. “They’re the secret keepers of scientists can see what conditions may have formed further thickened,” said Cooper. the Earth,” said Catherine Cooper, an associ- cratons. Credit: James St. John, CC-BY-2.0 (bit.ly/ This mechanism aligns with observations of ate professor of geophysics in the School of the ccby2-0) modern cratons. By studying the composition Environment at Washington State University of xenoliths containing pieces of the Archean in Pullman. Cooper was not involved in the cratonic lithosphere (brought to Earth’s sur- new research. By studying cratons, scientists face through volcanic activity), scientists can might learn how major components of Earth To figure this out, Capitanio and his col- learn about the composition of cratons. The arose and how plate tectonics began. “If you leagues turned to numerical models. To sim- can understand the role of the secret keepers ulate the dynamics of the Archean lithosphere, within [Earth], then we can try to answer some the researchers modeled these layers’ esti- of those questions better,” she said. mated temperatures, pressure, convection, “[Cratons] have kind of gone Scientists can also use this knowledge to and viscosity, all variables involved in melting study other planets. “Because these processes rock. along for the ride, picking are the creators of the continents, they are also up all of Earth’s secrets for the processes that create topography, that cre- A Surprising Solution ate an atmosphere,” said Fabio Capitanio, lead The model revealed a counterintuitive story for all this time,” said Cooper. author of the new study and an Australian craton formation: Parts of the lithospheric “They’re such an intriguing Research Council Future Fellow in Monash mantle became stronger as parts of it were University’s School of Earth Atmosphere and extracted. “The part that is extracted [from the scientific story.” Environment. “In principle, they are related mantle] is essentially melt,” Capitanio said. to the way we understand life [and the] evolu- “Imagine a volcano taking out the lava from tion of planets.” the interior of the Earth.” That melt came up through the lithospheric mantle, where it composition also suggests what kinds of con- cooled to form crust, leaving behind a portion ditions might have existed to form that rock, of mantle devoid of fluids. This process, called and Capitanio’s mechanism accounts for the “How do we create long- dehydration stiffening, left behind a thicker, pressure and temperature conditions that sci- stronger, and cooling mantle embedded in the entists know are needed to form the material lived, stable features out of lithosphere, forming the roots of the conti- of the Archean cratonic lithosphere. material that was once nents. As scientists gain a firmer grasp of the ori- This residual mantle acts almost like a pin gins of cratons, they’re better able to under- deformable?” from which the lithosphere stretches laterally, stand processes that might be happening creating new spaces for deformation (melting) within other planets as well as the processes and a new zone of stretching. This stretching, that helped form our own. “[Cratons] have or rifting, brings the warmer, deeper material kind of gone along for the ride, picking up all The Craton Conundrum closer to the surface. “In doing so, then you’re of Earth’s secrets for all this time,” said Coo- The fact that cratons are so thick and enduring having higher temperatures at lower pres- per. “They’re such an intriguing scientific poses a problem for scientists. “To make really sures, which then can cause [further] melting story.” thick lithosphere requires a good deal of defor- to occur,” said Cooper. While the residual por- mation,” said Cooper. “How do we create tion of the mantle cools, the whole process— long-lived, stable features out of material that dehydration stiffening, rifting, and cooling— By Jackie Rocheleau (@JackieRocheleau), was once deformable?” repeats in a new section. Science Writer

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European Colonists Dramatically Increased North American Erosion Rates

verything wears away in time, but human activities like farming can dra- Ematically accelerate natural erosion rates. The arrival of European colonists in North America, for instance, sped up the rate of erosion and river sediment accumulation on the continent by a factor of 10, according to a new study. An international team of researchers from China, Belgium, and the United States analyzed 40,000 years of accumulated river sediment from sites across North America to determine the natural background rate of erosion on the continent. They compared this rate to that of the past 200 years, a time when both agriculture and population rapidly increased following European colonization. During the past century alone, humans moved as much material as would be moved by natural processes in 700-3,000 years, the team reported in Nature Communications (bit .ly/humans-erosion). The development of large-scale agricultural systems (like this field in New Orleans) likely contributed to skyrock- “By having this huge compilation [of data] eting erosion rates in North America over the past 200 years. Credit: Veerle Vanacker that stretches back many thousands of years, we’re able to contextualize the human impact against that natural geologic variability,” said lead author David Kemp, a geologist with the Sediment accumulation rates shot up around found [that] humans affected sediment accu- China University of Geosciences in Wuhan. the turn of the 19th century, a time period that mulation” going back 200 years. “It was a surprise to me that the jump was coincides with a sharp increase in both the there and that it seemed to be so neatly coin- European population in North America and the Informing Restoration Efforts cident with European arrival.” amount of land dedicated to agriculture. Prior According to the researchers, their findings to that time, humans did not have a noticeable can help inform modern soil and water con- A Widespread Trend impact on erosion rates in North America. servation efforts by providing a benchmark To reach their findings, the team compiled for natural erosion rates. “There are large and data on sediment accumulated in riverbeds Accounting for the Sadler Effect costly river valley restoration projects under from 126 sites across the United States and To compare the background rate of accumula- way all over North America,” Stinchcomb Canada. In 94% of the sites surveyed, sedi- tion over 40,000 years with accumulation rates said. “One could argue that the work pre- ment accumulation rates over the past 200 over more recent timescales, the team had to sented in [this study] shows us that we will years were faster than the expected geological account for a known complication called the need to peer back before 200 years ago if we rate. Even more dramatic, nearly 40% had a Sadler effect, named after study coauthor Peter want to restore these streams to a more ‘nat- rate of sediment accumulation at least Sadler of the University of California, River- ural’ condition.” 10 times that of the background rate. side. According to the Sadler effect, the farther The most recent data in the study also pro- “What I found particularly interesting in back in time you go, the slower the erosion rate vide a glimpse at whether ongoing restoration the results is that if you look at human impact appears to be. More fine scale changes can be efforts have worked. “There have been huge on the sedimentation rate, you see it smoothed away or eroded over time, and layers investments in soil and water conservation continent-wide,” said study coauthor Veerle can be lost altogether. techniques, and one of the questions is always Vanacker, a geomorphologist at Université “With this effect in mind, you can see how the effectiveness of these techniques,” Catholique de Louvain in Louvain-la-Neuve, a recent increase in sediment accumulation Vanacker said. “I think that the results show Belgium. “I think that’s quite important, compared to the past 40,000 years may sim- these programs can probably be very effec- because it shows that this is something which ply be the result of this time bias,” said Gary tive, because you see that during the last has been generalized over the entire area.” Stinchcomb, a soil geomorphologist at Mur- decades, there already seems to be a reduc- The researchers cite intensive farming as ray State University in Murray, Ky., who was tion of the sedimentation rates.” the likely culprit in the increased sediment not involved in the study. “I think the most accumulation rate, with forestry, ranching, exciting find of this study is that they addressed and river management also playing roles. the time span dependence problem and still By Rachel Fritts (@rachel_fritts), Science Writer

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To Make Better Hurricane Models, Consider Air Pollution

urricane Harvey shocked the world in 2017 when it stalled over Houston, Hdefying hurricane models and dump- ing 1.25 meters of rain onto the city. Accord- ing to new research by a team of atmospheric scientists, a previously unaccounted for variable helped to drive the deluge: industrial air pollution. To investigate the role of air pollution, the researchers compared models with and without aerosols to observed data on Hurricane Harvey’s path, rainfall, and lightning extent. They found that air pollution was the major factor that drove catastrophic flooding in Houston, concluding that National Weather Service models failed to predict the rainfall because they didn’t take industrial aerosols into account. They reported their findings in Geophysical Research Letters (bit.ly/Harvey- aerosols). “The study presents compelling evidence illustrating the widespread effects of industrial aerosols on the evolution of Hurricane Harvey,” said Zhanqing Li, an atmospheric Hurricane Harvey churns over the Gulf of Mexico in 2017. Credit: NASA scientist who specializes in aerosols and was not involved in the study.

The Striking Impact of Aerosols large amount of precipitation,” said Yuan The “clean” simulation, in In recent years, researchers have begun to Wang, an atmospheric scientist at the Cali- scrutinize the relationship between air pol- fornia Institute of Technology in Pasadena contrast, predicted less lution and storms. Wildfires’ combined and a coauthor of the study. than half that rate of smoke and heat can affect local weather, for instance, and lightning is more frequent over Hurricane Harvey’s Perfect Storm rainfall. polluted skies. During the time that Hurricane Harvey sat Particulate matter, especially very fine over Houston, a continuous source of mois- soot, can hover in the air for extended periods ture was coming in from the Gulf of Mexico. of time before settling to the ground, provid- On top of that already hefty source of rain, ing a focal point around which water mole- factories continued to spew out more aero- actual rainfall rate of 32 millimeters per hour cules can condense. When water droplets sols, providing a continuous source of air par- and also predicted the particularly intense form around the particles, a small amount of ticles to supercharge the storm. lightning observed during the hurricane. The heat is released. In this way, more pollution “In this case, all the factors came together “clean” simulation, in contrast, predicted leads to more condensed water and more to set the stage for aerosols to play a huge less than half that rate of rainfall. heat, which in turn produces heavier rainfall role,” Wang said. The team’s findings show that greenhouse and more intense lightning. To test the idea that Houston’s air pollution gas emissions can have profound impacts on Conditions in Houston came together to played a role in Hurricane Harvey’s record- extreme weather events at even the local maximize aerosols’ amplifying effects during smashing rainfall, the researchers looked at level, Wang said. Failing to take these impacts Hurricane Harvey. Southern Texas has more both ground- and satellite-based rain and seriously can have serious consequences and than 400 densely distributed oil refineries, lightning measurements to get a clear under- heavy costs. and Houston in particular often exceeds standing of the actual amount of rainfall and “Traditionally, in the hurricane commu- national average annual air pollution levels. lightning over Houston between 26 and nity, aerosol effects have always been But although previous studies have tried to 28 August 2017. They then used the cloud- neglected in operational forecast models,” Li understand how the urban heat island effect resolving Weather Research and Forecasting said. “This work shows that such an omission and global warming affected Hurricane Har- model to simulate Hurricane Harvey with and may lead to significant errors in hurricane vey, no one had yet focused their attention on without the presence of Houston’s industrial forecast and predictions.” the role of the city’s air pollution. “I think we air pollution. are among the first to argue that the aerosols The simulation incorporating air pollution played a determinant role in producing the data accurately modeled Hurricane Harvey’s By Rachel Fritts (@rachel_fritts), Science Writer

8 Eos // MARCH 2021 NEWS

Corn Syrup Reveals How Bubbles Affect Lava’s Flow

ers, which makes it ideal to work with. In this experiment, researchers created three liquids using corn syrup and differing infusions of citric acid: pure corn syrup with no bubbles, bubbly corn syrup, and bubbly corn syrup containing suspended particles. The researchers then poured the liquids down a meter-long plastic plank propped up at an acute angle to mimic how lava flows from a volcano. A camera tracked movement while a laser sensor monitored the bubbly flows’ thickness. Pure corn syrup containing no bubbles moved the fastest, with bubbly corn syrup flowing slightly less rapidly. Bubbly corn syrup suffused with particulate matter moved more slowly and split into channels that flowed at different speeds—the liquid in the middle section moved faster, whereas the liquid on the flow’s flanks moved more slowly. Hawaii’s Kīlauea volcano erupting in 2018. Credit: U.S. Geological Survey The experiment also revealed a gravita- tional separation occurring, with bubbles floating to the top as the fluid moved—a process that creates a fragile gaseous shell in lava n the summer of 2018, an eruption on the Atsuko Namiki, a volcanologist from Hiro- called pahoehoe in real flows. As bubbles rose flanks of the active volcano K-ılauea shima University in Japan, was on Hawaii to the top, the flow’s more concentrated liq- Iin Hawaii sent lava flowing through when the eruption occurred. She noticed that uid touched the base of the slope, where it the Puna district toward Kapoho Bay. The the flow was “amazingly quick” at first, but accelerated the flow’s overall speed. relentless threat from wide channels of mol- it became much slower as it continued away According to Pranabendu Moitra, a physical ten rock forced about 2,000 residents to evac- from the rift zone on the volcano’s slopes. volcanologist at the University of Arizona who uate. By the end of the eruption in early Sep- “I was really surprised at the difference,” was not involved in the study, the research tember, 24 people were injured, 716 said Namiki. “I wanted to explain the abrupt represents an effort to understand lava flow structures were destroyed, and the flows change of the flow patterns with bubbles and in all three of its phases: liquid, bubbly, and left $800 million worth of damage in their without bubbles.” particulate. wake. “This is one of the first of its kind,” Moitra Although it’s not uncommon for lava flows said. “This has potential to be the basis for a to have bubbles, samples from the 2018 lot of future research.” K-ılauea event revealed a high percentage “This has potential to be Future lab experiments analyzing the of gaseous bubbles by volume—more than detailed physics of lava flows could help pro- 50% in some cores taken after the flows solid- the basis for a lot of future vide more accurate predictions for commu- ified, according to research presented at nities at risk of damage from volcanic erup- AGU’s Fall Meeting 2020 (bit.ly/ bubbly-lava). research. tions, said Birnbaum. Observations of a flow’s Some of the bubbles were large, roughly likely movement patterns and speeds, a meter in diameter. The high- profile depending on its gas content, could aid public event provided an opportunity for volcanol- safety authorities in preparing more reliable ogists to observe up close how dramatic out- The researchers’ findings showed that evacuation notices. gassing affected the way lava flows bubbles clearly affect lava’s viscosity, or its Not all results require expensive gear or down slopes and spreads across flatter areas. relative thickness and fluidity. “Small trips to dangerous zones, said Namiki. She However, re- creating a stream of molten changes in texture can lead to big and lasting hopes the simplicity of their experiments, rock in the lab to capture detailed physics changes in dynamics,” said Janine Birnbaum, which used common and inexpensive mate- in action isn’t feasible. So a team of interna- a graduate student at the Lamont-Doherty rials, inspires others to continue similar tional scientists created an analogue Earth Observatory at Columbia University research. using corn syrup, baking soda, citric acid, who worked on the study. and an inclined slope with the aim of shed- Corn syrup is a common experimental ana- ding light on how a high volume of bub- logue for lava. According to Birnbaum, the By Allison Gasparini (@astrogasparini), Science bles affects the way lava flows. syrup’s viscosity can be tweaked by research- Writer

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Waterways Change as Nearby Cities Grow

arge rivers powerfully sculpt landscapes, but their smaller brethren—streams— Lare much more numerous and affect local communities and ecosystems. Now scientists have used multidecadal data sets to trace how streamflow across the continental United States has changed in response to urbanization. They found a variety of trends, compli- cating the long-standing notion that city growth has a consistent impact on nearby waterways.

Decades of Streamflow Aditi Bhaskar, a hydrologist at Colorado State University in Fort Collins, and her colleagues started by mining a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) data set of streamflow measurements. The data set, which included measurements across the United States from more than 9,300 streamgages, stretches back decades. “That’s our best national-scale measurement of streamflow,” said Bhaskar. Bhaskar and her collaborators combined these streamflow data with records of housing density and impervious surface cover (e.g., concrete, asphalt). They honed in on gages that had an uninterrupted streamflow record of at least 20 years and whose watersheds— ranging in size from 5 to 162 square kilometers—were undammed and also satisfied cer- Researchers are studying how streams, like this one in Iowa, are affected by nearby urbanization, a new longitu- tain criteria related to size, impervious surface dinal study reveals. Credit: iStock.com/lynngrae cover, and housing density. “We wanted to look at watersheds while they’re being urbanized,” said Bhaskar. The researchers whittled down their sample experienced both increases and decreases in Cities, with their impervious surfaces, also to 53 gages across the continental United flow. “It was pretty evenly split between look different than nonurbanized areas. These States in areas such as Colorado Springs, Colo.; watersheds where low flows increased with surfaces prevent rainfall from filtering into the Indianapolis, Ind.; and Austin, Texas. The spa- urbanization and other watersheds where low ground, so storm runoff, which is often routed tial coverage of the final sample is probably flows decreased with urbanization,” said directly to streams, can lead to increasingly biased, Bhaskar and her colleagues noted. Bhaskar. “We don’t see consistency.” high flows, said Bhaskar. “Streamgages are largely put on perennial riv- That’s an important finding, said Sarah H. These results were published in Water ers, rivers that flow all year-round,” said Ledford, a hydrologist at Georgia State Uni- Resources Research (bit.ly/ streamflow- records). Bhaskar. “Our analysis is, of course, biased in versity in Atlanta not involved in the Bhaskar and her colleagues are investigat- the same way that the USGS streamgage net- research. It counters the assumption that ing a few individual watersheds in greater work is biased.” streams everywhere exhibit a homogeneous detail. The goal, she said, is to get a more response to urbanization. “Urban hydrology nuanced look than what’s possible with a Zooming In on City Growth was oversimplified from the start,” said Led- national-scale study. In Maryland, the team is Bhaskar and her colleagues then matched each ford. analyzing how the presence of green infra- watershed with a similarly sized watershed structures—such as infiltration trenches and that had experienced only minimal urbaniza- Draw and Release tree boxes—affects changes in streamflow. tion. That allowed the team to subtract It makes sense that streamflow would vary as And in Colorado, they’re looking at streamflow climate-induced changes in streamflow and a city grows, said Bhaskar, because urban areas changes that result from a practice common isolate just the changes associated with city both draw and release water. “Upstream of the in urban areas: watering one’s lawn. growth. city, there’s the withdrawal for the water sup- The scientists found mixed results: Higher ply. A little bit downstream, but upstream of streamflows tended to exhibit increasing flows the next city, is the wastewater effluent By Katherine Kornei (@KatherineKornei), as areas urbanized, but lower streamflows release.” Science Writer

10 Eos // MARCH 2021 NEWS

Dirty Trees Shape Earth’s Hydrologic and Carbon Cycles

hen each raindrop falls through a forest canopy and reaches Earth, it W ferries creatures and contaminants to soils and streams below. Researchers have only recently begun to explore the fine details of this journey; their work was featured in a session titled “Precipitation Partitioning by Vegetation” at AGU’s virtual Fall Meeting 2020 (bit.ly/precip-partitioning). When a raindrop falls over land, it might bounce off leaves or slide down tree trunks before reaching the ground. Depending on where it lands, that drop will eventually contribute to a river, be absorbed into a forest floor, or evaporate back into the atmosphere. This distribution of precipitation by trees and shrubs is often the first step in the terrestrial hydrologic cycle, yet fundamental data on its consequences remain relatively As rain flows down grimy tree branches, it becomes a rich, nutritious tea for soil communities below. Credit: John sparse. Van Stan “We tend to ignore canopies as an interface for water to reach the Earth’s surface,” said John Van Stan, an ecohydrologist at Georgia Southern University. “But they connect to so uum. The Fall Meeting session included a are like miniature Amazons capable of trans- many aspects of an ecosystem. They’re the number of posters related to particulate porting carbon and nutrients in volumes first thing that controls where water goes.” transfer by precipitation and how human comparable to those of large streams and riv- disturbances, such as forest thinning and ers. Yet “we know practically nothing about More Questions Than Answers fire, change the capacity for canopies to store it,” Van Stan said. Indeed, he noted, hydrol- When hydrologists consider what happens water. ogists interested in canopy water traditionally when rain filters through trees and plants, Gutmann said he’s particularly excited filtered out the organic matter and tossed it they confront a host of important ecological about one study, led by Dominick Ciruzzi at the in the trash. and societal questions: How much rainfall University of Wisconsin-Madison, in which a By directing water and nutrient flow within actually reaches an aquifer? How does clear- team attached accelerometers to street trees the critical zone, plants influence numerous cutting a forest affect local weather? How do to measure how much rainfall they intercept biogeochemical cycles. But the extent of their urban trees aid storm water management? on their leaves. The study showed that rainfall influence remains a mystery. A growing set of research projects has bound up in trees reduced the amount of water “There are always modeling papers saying focused on this botanical portion of the that reached the ground below. When taken we still don’t have the best handle on the car- hydrologic cycle. These studies accompany together, thousands of trees in an urban area bon cycle,” said Benjamin Runkle, who stud- the rise in popularity of critical zone science, could be a sustainable tool to mitigate flooding ies carbon and water cycling in agricultural which investigates the connectivity of the related to heavy rains. systems at the University of Arkansas and “thin living skin” that coats Earth—from was not involved in the session. Understand- treetops to bedrock. Measuring rain, fog, and Miniature Amazons ing the subtle yet powerful ways plants shape snow within the convoluted texture of a for- According to Van Stan, one of the most large-scale systems like weather, erosion, est, however, is no easy task. understudied details of precipitation parti- and carbon transport is critical to building “Because it’s such a challenging measure- tioning is the vertical transfer of biological better predictive models. ment to take, [canopy water flow] has really materials from canopies to the soil below. “To really get the numbers right,” Runkle been overlooked,” said Ethan Gutmann, a “Trees are really dirty, just covered in lots of said, researchers need to pay more attention to hydrologist at the National Center for Atmo- organic matter,” such as feces, fungal spores, the details, one drop—on one leaf—at a time. spheric Research in Boulder, Colo. “But we’re bacteria, and metazoans critical to how eco- finding more and more, especially in water- systems function, Van Stan said. limited environments, that it may be a very The numerous, tiny rivulets that form on By Cypress Hansen (@PollenPlankton), Science large component of the water cycle.” branches, trunks, and stems during storms Writer Last year, Van Stan, Gutmann, and their colleagues published a book that synthesizes past and present advances and ongoing knowledge gaps about the transport of water u Read our Critical Zone issue: eos.org/special-topics#critical-zone along the atmosphere-plant-soil contin-

SCIENCE NEWS BY AGU // Eos.org 11 NEWS

New Volcano, Old Caldera

n May 2018, a barrage of earthquakes struck Mayotte, the seismically quiet easternmost Iisland of the Comoros archipelago, which stretches between Africa and Madagascar. After months of investigating the unexpected and intense seismic activity, French scientists discovered a new submarine volcano in the Indian Ocean approximately 50 kilometers east of the island. This new seafloor feature is evidence of, by volume, the largest documented underwater volcanic eruption in history, and both volcanic and seismic activities continue today. In the years since the initial quakes, teams of scientists have refined the picture of the structures below the seafloor. Building on this foundation, marine geologist Nathalie Feuillet and seismotectonicist Eric Jacques, both at the Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, and their colleagues proposed the presence of a large underwater caldera—a volcanic depression formed when a magma chamber drains The island of Mayotte, Comoros, is the site of ongoing seismic activity associated with what may be the largest and collapses—located between Mayotte and documented underwater volcanic eruption in history. Credit: Earth Science and Remote Sensing Unit, NASA the new volcano. A ring of earthquakes in the Johnson Space Center mantle lithosphere delineates this curious structure at depths where neither earthquakes nor calderas typically occur. Feuillet, Jacques, and other researchers pre- the nascent volcano was actively erupting into The donut-shaped western cluster began sented their findings at AGU’s Fall Meeting the sea during the scientific cruise. With each shaking in the summer of 2018. Earthquakes 2020 (bit.ly/Mayotte-structure). subsequent campaign, scientists discovered tell scientists where faults are active, so this fresh lava flows. ringlike cluster implies faults arrayed in a A Timeline of Peculiar Events circle pointing to a possible caldera directly Mayotte formed approximately 11 million From Seafloor to Mantle above. At depths of 25–55 kilometers, these years ago and is the oldest in the chain of East of Mayotte’s shores, Feuillet described earthquakes originated in the mantle below, Comorian volcanic islands, said Feuillet. The “the crown,” a circular structure on the sea- said seismologist Wenyuan Fan, an assistant island slumbered until 10 May 2018. Then, in floor approximately 10 kilometers in diameter professor of geophysics at Scripps Institu- the first 2 months of the seismic episode, more and dotted with many cones. She and her col- tion of Oceanography, who is not affiliated than 100 events greater than magnitude 4.5, leagues interpreted the structure as the outline with the new studies. Earthquakes usually including a magnitude 5.9 event, rocked the of an old caldera. An oceanic ridge stretches rupture brittle crust, where strain energy can island. Its population, accustomed to stable eastward, away from the crown, truncated by accumulate, he said. Strain cannot accumu- ground, had only a single seismic station to the fledgling volcano 50 kilometers from May- late at typical mantle conditions, so most monitor the sudden crisis. otte. mantle tends to flow, inhibiting earth- In November 2018, seismic stations around To explore the structures in the lithosphere quakes. the world heard a mysterious hum that scien- below the seafloor, the team focused on two “One way to [get mantle earthquakes] tists traced to Mayotte. This 25-minute-long distinct clusters of earthquakes. The eastern would be to bring down cooler materials that signal vibrated at low frequencies, hinting that cluster, located between the suspected caldera can host earthquakes,” Fan said, which hap- magma movement and volcanic activity were and the volcano, concentrates earthquakes pens in subduction zones. But the Mayotte the prime suspects to explain the seismic cri- deep below the seafloor, parallel to the ridge, events are not related to subduction, leaving sis. Back at sea level, Feuillet said local fisher- said Jacques. This cluster includes the inaugu- these mantle earthquakes a mystery. men reported dead fish and a “burned tire ral earthquakes from May and June 2018, How the western donut cluster connects to smell” during this time. which Feuillet said may indicate that a dike the eastern ridge cluster poses another quan- In May 2019, the first of seven marine propagated from west to east before the erup- dary because they are not linked by earth- cruises confirmed that 5 cubic kilometers of tion, pushing magma from a deep western quakes, said seismologist Lise Retailleau, also lava had piled onto the previously flat seafloor, reservoir eastward and upward toward the vol- of Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris but constructing an 800-meter-tall volcanic edi- cano, similar to the model proposed in a paper not part of Feuillet’s and Jacques’s studies. fice, said Feuillet in her talk. The presence of published earlier this year (bit.ly/Mayotte Whether the lack of seismic connection hydrogen gas in the water column meant that -magma-drainage). between the clusters indicates aseismic

12 Eos // MARCH 2021 NEWS

magma transfer or some deeper connection hidden from scientists, she said, “we don’t really know.” Also perplexing are observations of the lithosphere between the proposed caldera and the donut cluster. Retailleau pointed out that the caldera shows no evidence of volcanic activity at the human timescale, even though most of the seismicity recorded since 2018 congregates below it. Even stranger, the upper crustal lithosphere between the surface and the top of the donut cluster lacks earthquakes that would indicate breaking, brittle crust. Instead, long- period and very long period seismic events associated with this eruption—events that often imply magma movement—occur just above the donut, said Retailleau. Feuillet said that these events might foreshadow another untapped shallow magma chamber above the brittle rocks defined by the donut cluster. If this magma chamber is active and continues its upward path, Retailleau said it could affect Mayotte and its population of more than a quarter million people. In this map of the topography and bathymetry of Mayotte, the red triangle indicates the location of the new volcanic edifice. The orange circle indicates the primary donut cluster of earthquakes below the possible caldera structure. The green ellipse encloses the secondary cluster parallel to the caldera ridge. Credit: Lise Retailleau; By Alka Tripathy- Lang (@DrAlkaTrip), Science bathymetry from GEBCO, SHOM HOMONIM, and REVOSIMA MAYOBS1; topography from IGN Writer Read it first on Articles are published on Eos.org before they appear in the magazine. Visit Eos.org daily for the latest news and perspectives. Using Earthquake Forensics to Study Subduction from Space bit.ly/Eos-earthquake-forensics Tree Rings Reveal How Ancient Forests Were Managed bit.ly/Eos-tree-rings Sinking Fish May Fast-Track Mercury Pollution to the Deep Sea bit.ly/Eos-mercury-pollution Graduate Student Perspectives on Equitable Remote Learning bit.ly/Eos-remote-learning Cape Cod: Shipwrecks, Dune Shacks, and Shifting Sands bit.ly/Eos-Cape-Cod Very Good Space Boys: Robotic Dogs May Dig Into Martian Caves bit.ly/Eos-space-boys

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Long-Term Drought Harms Mental Health in Rural Communities

ublic health experts increasingly recognize that adverse weather and cli- Pmate conditions can have negative impacts on people’s mental health as well as their physical health. Many emergency management organizations, for example, have established or expanded postdisaster services to include mental health assistance and support. However, little is understood about how mental health is affected by the duration of such conditions, especially when they last for months or years on end, as can happen with droughts. Past quantitative research has focused on linking characteristics of drought, such as the severity of dryness, with mental health outcomes, explained Tuyen Luong, a doctoral For farmers and ranchers in rural New South Wales, Australia (above), drought is a regular part of life and can student at the University of Newcastle’s Cen- cause long-term harm to mental health. Credit: iStock.com/Capstoc tre for Resources Health and Safety (CRHS) in New South Wales, Australia. “In our study, we focus on linking duration of drought...with the mental health of people to explore their poor mental health seemed to lessen after a able to drought because they rely on agricul- mental response to drought over time.” few years of the drought, other symptoms ture. And within rural communities there are Residents of remote and rural communities became persistent or chronic. certain groups that are more vulnerable,” like in southeastern Australia likely remember Luong presented this research at AGU’s adolescents and the aging population. the Millennium Drought, which lasted from Fall Meeting 2020 (bit.ly/drought- mental Moreover, the effects of drought on phys- 1997 to 2010 and devastated ecosystems, -health). ical health, financial stability, and other economies, and lives across the region. From stressors like water availability are different 2007 to 2013, scientists conducted a study of Learning to Cope for people living in rural and remote commu- people living in those communities to explore Climate change is worsening drought condi- nities compared with people in urban set- potential drivers of poor mental health, tions around the world and shifting natural tings. The results of drought–mental health including the prolonged drought. drought cycles out of sync with agricultural studies that focus only on urban settings Luong and her colleagues recently analyzed growing periods.. likely won’t be applicable in rural and remote data from that study and found that the Mil- “Australia is particularly vulnerable to contexts, Austin said. lennium Drought did indeed have adverse drought because we have such variable rain- The Australian Rural Mental Health Study mental health impacts on people living fall,” explained Emma Austin, manager of (ARMHS) repeatedly surveyed more than through it in remote and rural communities. CRHS and a co‑investigator on this research 1,800 households in remote and rural com- Moreover, although some acute symptoms of project. “Rural communities are very vulner- munities in New South Wales. Over a 6-year

Fields affected by the Millennium Drought, which lasted from 1997 to 2010 and severely affected farmers in southern and eastern Australia, are seen here near Benambra, Vic., in 2006. Credit: Fir0002/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-NC 3.0 (bit.ly/ccbync3-0)

14 Eos // MARCH 2021 NEWS

period, participants self-reported psycholog- completely return to baseline within this time these kinds of negative effects. But it is often ical symptoms of poor mental health like dis- period makes a lot of sense, conceptually, difficult to obtain, especially in rural areas. tress, worry, depression, anxiety, and suicidal especially if the drought is ongoing,” said Even doctors focused on physical health, and thoughts, as well as the role of determinants Susan Clayton, a professor of psychology and other community officials, can be trained and in their mental health and well-being like environmental studies at the College of encouraged to ask people about their mental employment stability, social connectedness, Wooster in Wooster, Ohio. Clayton was not health and refer them to treatment options and environmental adversity. involved with this research. “People learn to as required.” In their analysis of these data, Luong and cope, but the quality of life is still lower.” Luong said that future analyses of ARMHS her team found that people’s psychological data will explore how gender, age, and income distress rose during the first 30–40 months Informing Policies That Support factor into drought-related mental health (roughly 2.5–3.5 years) of drought before pla- Mental Health impacts. A more nuanced understanding of teauing and then decreasing. “There’s been a shift in Australian policy” in these factors can help create policies that “People have lower distress at the later the past decade regarding drought, Austin provide the right kind of support through the stages of drought, but this does not necessar- said. “It was very reactive, [but] now there’s entire period of mental health vulnerability ily mean that people will display a good men- focus on the need to plan for drought all the and allocate often limited financial support tal health condition,” Luong said. “We found time, not just in the drought times but in the to particularly at-risk populations. that when droughts go on, [they] will lead to good times as well.” Long- term, quantitative “Our work will inform policy and strategy by a reduction in general life satisfaction, and studies like ARMHS are needed to measure providing better understanding” of the rela- despair about the future will be increased.” the true toll that adverse environmental con- tionship among drought, mental health, and Rather than indicating an improvement in ditions take on rural communities, she added. adaptive capacity, Luong said, “and from there overall mental health and well- being, Austin “Research like this is important to share we can develop strategies to improve well- said, the alleviation of distress might be with governmental agencies in order to being and therefore improve adaptive capacity related to a developed trait known as adaptive strengthen support for mental health treat- and climate resilience in communities.” capacity, a person’s ability to cope with ment networks, as well as awareness of the adversity. problem,” Clayton said. “Access to mental “The finding that mental health decre- health treatment, especially in a way that is By Kimberly M. S. Cartier (@AstroKimCartier), ments tend to dissipate over time but do not not stigmatized, can help people to cope with Staff Writer

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Tracing the Moisture That Nourishes the World’s Highest Glacier

he Khumbu Glacier snakes down from get a handle on the the summit of Mount Everest and into atmospheric con- Tnortheastern Nepal. The highest gla- ditions it’s exposed cier in the world, it’s famous for being a to, he said. And treacherous rite of passage for Everest moun- right now, only a taineers. However, the Khumbu Glacier, along handful of weather with others nearby, is also a key source of stations are posi- water for downstream communities in the tioned above about Hindu Kush-Himalaya-Karakoram region. 5,200 meters in the Now, using newly installed weather stations Himalayas. “There’s on and around Mount Everest, scientists have this incredible data determined that the Khumbu Glacier is largely void up there,” said nourished by moisture transported from the Perry. northern Bay of Bengal. Predicting whether Perry and his this glacier will advance or retreat in the future colleagues have might hinge on measurements of the Bay of now analyzed data Bengal’s sea surface temperature, the scien- from several of the tists suggest, because warmer waters translate weather stations into a greater potential for evaporation. they installed. They The Khumbu Glacier on Mount Everest is nourished by moisture from the northern extracted measure- Bay of Bengal, weather station data have revealed. Credit: Baker Perry/National A Far- Reaching Expedition ments like tem- Geographic In 2019, 34 scientists and a cadre of support perature, relative staff convened in Nepal for the National Geo- humidity, and graphic and Rolex Perpetual Planet Everest wind speed and Expedition. Ten research teams—spanning tabulated 171 precipitation events that Perry and his colleagues aren’t finished biology, geology, glaciology, mapping, and occurred between 1 June 2019 and 31 May studying the Khumbu Glacier—they’re par- meteorology—accomplished a number of 2020 near the Khumbu Glacier. Precipitation ticularly keen to understand how it will be firsts, including drilling the world’s highest can nourish glaciers by depositing snow that affected by climate change. One hint comes ice core and placing the two highest-elevation ultimately gets compacted into ice. from measurements of the freezing-level weather stations. (The logistics of supporting The researchers then used a computer height on the glacier, the elevation at which such an expedition were myriad: More than model of how the atmosphere moves to trace precipitation ceases falling as rain and 2,900 kilograms of equipment and supplies each precipitation event backward in time instead falls as snow. Freezing-level heights had to be transported, by modes ranging from and space. They found that more than 60% of on the Khumbu Glacier have consistently helicopter to dzo, a cow‑yak hybrid.) the precipitation originated from the north- crept upward by about 7 meters per year since Baker Perry, a climate scientist at Appala- ern Bay of Bengal, with the remainder split 2005, Perry and his collaborators have shown. chian State University in Boone, N.C., partic- roughly evenly between the Indo-Gangetic That’s a worrying trend, said Mauri Pelto, ipated in the expedition. As colead of the Plain and the Indus River Delta/Arabian Sea. a glaciologist at Nichols College in Dudley, meteorology team, he helped oversee the That result is consistent with earlier results Mass., not involved in the research. A higher installation of five automatic weather sta- based on satellite data. freezing height means that a glacier will tions on and around Mount Everest, including receive a larger fraction of its precipitation in one just a few hundred meters below the Watch the Temperature the form of rainfall, which will trigger melt- mountain’s 8,850-meter summit. These findings pinpoint the Bay of Bengal ing, he said. “Snow adds to its mass, at least Working on the upper reaches of Mount as an area to watch, said Perry. The amount temporarily, whereas rain immediately gen- Everest was a challenge even for Perry, who of precipitation that ultimately falls in the erates melt.” has spent time above 5,500 meters in the accumulation zone of the Khumbu Gla- There’s another side effect of increased Andes mountains. “It was a new challenge cier—a factor that dictates, in part, whether rainfall, Perry and his colleagues noted. By getting up that high,” he said. “It’s just a dif- the glacier will advance or retreat—may be contributing an influx of water to lakes, it ferent landscape.” tied to the sea surface temperature in the Bay could potentially destabilize some of the of Bengal, he said. “The warmer the sea sur- many glacial lakes in the Hindu Kush- Into the Void face temperatures there, the warmer the air, Himalaya-Karakoram region, said Perry. But installing weather stations at high alti- and the greater the potential for evapora- “This is a growing concern.” tudes is extremely important, said Perry, tion.” because many glaciers are at elevation. If These results were published in One Earth we want to better understand what controls and presented at AGU’s Fall Meeting 2020 (bit By Katherine Kornei (@KatherineKornei), a glacier’s growth and retreat, we need to .ly/Khumbu-moisture). Science Writer

16 Eos // MARCH 2021 NEWS

Earth’s Magnetic Field Holds Clues to Human History Snapshots of the geomagnetic field sometimes can be linked to well- recorded events in history.

during times of war. Although other objects (like pottery) are also viable sources of magnetic information, such items are less likely to remain fixed in place than blocks used in construction—and a shift in location and orientation makes it impossible to extract meaningful data on geomagnetic direction. “A structure that has been fired in place in these destruction events gives you so much more data as to the exact moment in time when that destruction occurred,” said Still- The remains of mud brick walls like this one in Tel Batash, Israel, are helping researchers better understand the inger. Levantine Iron Age geomagnetic anomaly, which lasted from the 10th to at least the 5th century BCE. Credit: Yoav Vaknin Multipurpose Time Capsule Because the geomagnetic field is constantly changing direction and intensity, objects that burn at different times record different estruction as a key to preserving the Yoav Vaknin, a Ph.D. student at Tel Aviv geomagnetic signatures. These snapshots of past? It sounds paradoxical—fires, University and the Hebrew University of the geomagnetic field sometimes can be Dfloods, and war have often wiped out Jerusalem, presented the team’s prelim‑ linked to well-recorded events in history— historic record https://aguorg-my.sharepoint. inarys results in a poster session at AGU’s such as the destruction of Jerusalem. “We com/personal/vbassett_agu_org/_layouts/15/ Fall Meeting 2020 (bit.ly/geomagnetic know [the city was burned] in August 586 onedrive.aspx s and infrastructure. But -anomaly). BCE,” said Vaknin. “There is an argument destructive events are also a source of knowl- “They’re doing just really great work,” said [over whether] it’s 3 days earlier or 3 days edge when it comes to the study of Earth’s Michele Stillinger, a professor of Earth sci- later.” magnetic field. Items burned during ancient ence at Dougherty Family College, University Such events are fundamental to archaeo- upheavals store geomagnetic information of St. Thomas, who was not involved in the magnetic dating, a process that first uses from long ago—and those data can illuminate research. “I’m excited to see what kind of burned material to build a geomagnetic the timeline of human history. results they get and to compare across the timeline, then uses that timeline to date A research team specializing in archaeology different sites.” other archaeological objects through their and geomagnetism has collected magnetic magnetic properties. This technique is an information from burned mud bricks and other Magnetic Memory important complement to more traditional objects at 15 archaeological sites spread across Many materials, including rocks and soils, archaeological methods like radiocarbon the southern Levant. These efforts build on the contain minerals that are magnetic. When dating. But Vaknin’s data are also valuable team’s recently published study that examines exposed to intense heat, the material’s inter- for the study of geomagnetism itself. the direction and intensity of the geomagnetic nal magnetic signature is erased. This hap- All the magnetic information goes into a field in 586 BCE, when Babylonian forces pens to lava during a volcanic eruption, for worldwide database, said Vaknin, and burned the city of Jerusalem (bit.ly/Jerusalem- example, and to clay pottery as it’s fired in a researchers try to reconstruct and build mod- magnetic-field). The new research is broader in kiln. As the material cools down again, it els of the behavior of the geomagnetic field. scope than the paper is, providing detailed geo- takes on the characteristics of the geomag- “It’s a very big enigma, why the geomagnetic magnetic data from throughout the region netic field that surrounds it. field behaves as it does.” during much of the Levantine Iron Age geo- Vaknin and his colleagues measured the magnetic anomaly, a period of about 500-600 magnetic direction and intensity of dried years when the intensity of the geomagnetic mud bricks, a common building material in By Alice McBride (alicemcb@mit.edu), Science field was unusually high. the ancient Near East that was often burned Writer

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18 Eos // MARCH 2021 OPINION

How to Combat Bullying and Discrimination in the Geosciences

ullying and discrimination within the saki, 2020; Mahmoudi, 2018]. Yet the onus of tional office that investigates reports of geosciences are widespread and affect addressing hostile work climates should not workplace abuse—for action to be taken. Bthe practice of science at individual, be on the person experiencing abuse. Above all, do not disregard or deny the vic- institutional, and societal levels, ultimately If you are witness to an unhealthy work tim’s experience, blame them, or apologize hampering scientific advancement [Marín- environment involving bullying, discrimina- for the perpetrator. Spiotta et al., 2020]. The majority of the perpe- tion, or other abuses of power (see sidebar), With or without vocal allies on their side, trators creating abusive research environ- it is incumbent upon you to act as an ally to people experiencing abuse in academic envi- ments are supervisors [e.g., Woolston, 2019a, those experiencing abuse. Be mindful when ronments can, and often must, be their own 2019b; Iwasaki, 2020]. Those most affected are talking with the person to make sure they are biggest advocates. We recommend 10 con- early-career scientists from underrepresented comfortable and supported while getting the crete strategies for scientists to overcome groups [Marín-Spiotta, 2018; Moss, 2018]. As help they need. If you are a peer of the hostile unhealthy work environments, particularly if such, the lack of diversity in the geosciences party, you could offer mentorship to help support from their own institutions is lacking [Bernard and Cooperdock, 2018] may give more them change their behavior. You may want to or ineffectual. Please note that these recom- opportunity for these injustices. elevate the matter to a higher authority—for mendations do not address ways to respond The root of this pervasive issue lies in the instance, a department head or an institu- to sexual harassment or assault, stalking, power dynamics within academia, where threats, or other forms of physical violence. fears of retaliation and the impunity of pro- 1. Recognize an unhealthy work environment. fessors let culprits get away with malicious Recognizing discriminatory behavior is the behavior far too often. Despite increased dis- The onus of addressing most crucial point, although the hierarchical cussions about this topic [e.g., Nature, 2019; nature of academia can make this recognition Smith, 2020; Wellcome Trust, 2020], institu- hostile work climates inherently difficult when it is someone you tions, scientific organizations, and funders should not be on the look up to who is misbehaving. First, if there tend to provide neither effective support nor is a problem, do not assume you are at fault!

Freepik.com clear steps forward for those affected [Iwa- person experiencing abuse. It is the responsibility of the person in power

SCIENCE NEWS BY AGU // Eos.org 19 OPINION

to not be hostile in their actions or words. Aca- already offer to their staff and students. There friends of the perpetrator. Widening your net- demic institutions and departments should is no shame in getting external perspectives work of collaborators has the added benefit of have definitions and guidelines for ethical to guide you through your situation. creating relationships with people who may be behavior in place as well as policies protecting 3. Confront your situation. It takes a lot of able to provide letters of recommendation as employees and students from harassment and courage to approach a person who is harming you develop your career. bullying. Use these guidelines to assess your you, particularly given the risks of their retal- 7. Change your physical work environment. experiences, and keep a record of specific inci- iation. However, by doing so, you take charge Changing the physical environment in which dents to identify patterns. These measures can of the situation and signal to the culprit that you work can help put not only literal distance help you justify your perceptions and evaluate their behavior is unacceptable. We recom- but also mental distance between you and an the situation. Needless to say, talk to family, mend having such a discussion in a public abusive situation. You could, for example, ask friends, and other mentors for support and place, for example, a cafeteria. If you feel for a new work space in a different office, lab- outside perspective. more comfortable having a third party oratory, or building; occasionally work from 2. Prioritize your well-being. Mental and involved, reach out to a trusted person to join other places (e.g., the library or home); or physical well-being are inseparable and the conversation. Aim to establish agree- look for opportunities to work as a visiting should be your first focus. Make sure you get ments that detail how the perpetrator will scientist in another research group. The latter enough sleep, take breaks, and do things that change their behavior and how they will fol- can be facilitated by a travel grant (which also make you happy. You are valued for more low through with their role as a mentor in looks great on a CV) and can lead to relation- than your capital and abilities as a scientist, charge of your growth as a scientist. ships with new collaborators. and your well- being should never suffer. Do 4. Approach someone you trust. Reach out to not hesitate to seek professional psycholog- a trusted individual for guidance. An ally who ical help and other well-being resources and can effectively advise you and advocate for you services, which many academic institutions can be an invaluable source of support and can Changing the physical help protect you from retaliation. Universities and research institutions often employ environment in which you ombudspeople or others trained to mediate work can help put not only What Are Bullying and conflict situations. Seek guidance from these Discrimination? individuals, or, if your institution does not literal distance but also Bullying includes a range of aggressive have staff trained in mediation, look for peer- mental distance between and discrediting behavior carried out over mentoring support options at your institution a prolonged period. Discrimination refers and beyond—there are a myriad of early- you and an abusive to mistreatment, whether intended or career scientist networks, student councils, situation. not, on the basis of a person’s belonging and online community resources of scientific to a specific group or on account of dis- societies, as well as Twitter and Slack groups. ability; nationality; or social, ethnic, 5. Dare to speak up. It is possible or even racial, sexual, gender, or religious iden- likely that colleagues of yours face similar tity. Bullying and discrimination typically issues but have not spoken up. Finding the 8. Document all incidents. Make notes and lead to similar kinds of misconduct, courage to do so can be hard for countless rea- memos of important conversations with your which can occur in many forms, including sons. However, simply sharing experiences supervisor and send them as meeting summa- the following: about and strategies on how to handle diffi- ries. Such records can be key if your supervisor • unfair and unequal working condi- cult work situations can already help you feel ignores agreements or your situation is ele- tions, such as withholding information, better. Sharing your experience with others vated to an institutional level where “proof” collaboration opportunities, or support; could also create a “me too”-type effect, of your situation is requested. Also, take note assigning inappropriate or too many enabling you to act more effectively as a group of bystanders who might have witnessed the tasks; threats or refusals regarding fund- against perpetrators. Moreover, having open discriminatory behavior you have experienced. ing; refusal of promotions; or discrimina- conversations and removing taboos on dis- 9. Transfer to another workplace or lab. tion because of pregnancy cussions regarding harassment and bullying Unfortunately, difficult and abusive situa- • scientific misconduct, such as are important steps forward in acknowledg- tions do not always improve, even with the changing authorship positions or taking ing systemic problems. approaches outlined here. Staying in a hostile credit for other people’s ideas or intellec- 6. Look for supportive collaborators. For most work environment can ruin your career, so tual property people, a hostile workplace will negatively your best option might be to move elsewhere • intimidating behavior, such as con- affect the quality of their work. Try to find to start fresh in a different research group, stantly contradicting or interrupting other experts in your field who can get involved department, or even institution. Your happi- someone in your research and act as mentors and allies. ness, mental health, and professional growth • attacks on personal integrity and By expanding your team of supervisors or col- as a scientist are worth it! dignity, such as spreading rumors or pub- laborators, you can diffuse the effects of power 10. Explore external resources. In addition to licly shaming people abuses that can occur in one-on- one relation- resources provided through your institution, • psychological attacks, such as mak- ships. Do not hesitate to approach potential professional societies and other groups pro- ing degrading verbal or written comments collaborators with your scientific ideas at con- vide external sources of support. For example, or sexist or racist jokes ferences or via email. However, make sure AGU has an Ethics and Equity Center that pro- those scientists are not close associates or vides free legal consultation for those who may

20 Eos // MARCH 2021 OPINION

be targets of hostile and toxic environments. These resources and organizations can offer Building Resilience in Rural America guidance on how to resolve conflict situations that potentially involve legal actions. There is no straightforward or easy way to improve or get out of a discriminatory work environment. The above steps are intended to empower individuals facing abuse and to help overcome or alleviate the consequences of workplace bullying, discrimination, and other behaviors that stem from imbalanced power dynamics in academic settings. If you need distance to make a major decision, consider taking time off to clear your head. Whether you ultimately decide to stay in or leave a difficult situation, make sure to choose the option that is best for your well-being, and do not let the abuse you have experienced define how you value yourself personally or professionally.

Acknowledgments We are grateful for helpful input and feedback provided by Erika Marín-Spiotta, Kristoffer Aalstad, and Jendrik Seipp.

References Bernard, R. E., and E. H. G. Cooperdock (2018), No progress on diversity in 40 years, Nat. Geosci., 11, 292–295, https://doi .org/ 10.1038/s41561- 018- 0116- 6. Iwasaki, A. (2020), Antidote to toxic principal investigators, Nat. Med., 26, 457, https://doi .org/ 10 .1038/ s41591- 020- 0831- 6. Mahmoudi, M. (2018), Improve reporting systems for academic bullying, Nature, 562, 494, https://doi .org/ 10.1038/ d41586 - 018 -07154- x. Shops line a street running through a small town in upstate New York. Credit: iStock.com/DebraMillet Marín-Spiotta, E. (2018), Harassment should count as scientific misconduct, Nature, 557, 141, https://doi .org:/ 10.1038/ d41586 -018- 05076- 2. Marín-Spiotta, E., et al. (2020), Hostile climates are barriers to diversifying the geosciences, Adv. Geosci., 53, 117– 127, https:// n the United States, 2020 will be remem- doi.org/ 10.5194/ adgeo- 53- 117- 2020. Even more troubling than Moss, S. (2018), Research is set up for bullies to thrive, Nature, bered not just for a global pandemic but 560, 529, https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586- 018- 06040- w. also for a series of back-to-back and the overall trend of Nature (2019), The mental health of PhD researchers demands I record-breaking disasters that affected urgent attention, Nature, 575, 257– 258, https://doi .org/ increasing disaster losses 10.1038/d41586- 019- 03489- 1. much of the country, including many rural Smith, D. K. (2020), The race to the bottom and the route to the communities. As tempting as it may be are the inequitable top, Nat. Chem., 12, 101– 103, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41557 to consider the severe losses and impacts -019- 0410- y. outcomes that follow Wellcome Trust (2020), What researchers think about the culture from these events in isolation—the chal- they work in, 51 pp., London, wellcome.ac.uk/ reports/ what lenges of a year that will not soon be forgot- disasters. -researchers- think- about- research- culture. ten—the trend of rising losses from natural Woolston, C. (2019a), PhD poll reveals fear and joy, content- ment and anguish, Nature, 575, 403–406, https://doi .org/ hazards has been visible for many years. 10.1038/d41586- 019- 03459- 7. From 2015 to 2020, according to NOAA, Woolston, C. (2019b), A message for mentors from dissatisfied graduate students, Nature, 575, 551–552, https://doi .org/ the United States was hit annually by at least 10.1038/d41586- 019- 03535- y. 10 weather- and climate- related disasters umented, for example, in 2017 in Puerto Rico that each caused more than $1 billion in following Hurricane Maria and in California damages [Smith, 2020]. in the wake of destructive wildfires, when By Andrea L. Popp (andrea.popp@geo .uio .no), Even more troubling than this overall trend impacts were far worse for the poor. Similarly Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, of increasing disaster losses are the inequita- negative effects of the COVID- 19 pandemic, Oslo, Norway; Caitlyn A. Hall, School of Sus- ble outcomes that follow disasters, such as on both physical and economic well-being, tainable Engineering and the Built Environment, the displacement of renters, disparate have resoundingly affected persons of color, Arizona State University, Tempe; and Yeliz A. impacts on persons of color, lower levels of tribal nations, and rural communities at dis- Yılmaz, Department of Geosciences, University assistance for tribal communities, and the proportionately high rates. of Oslo, Oslo, Norway exacerbation of food insecurity among those Historically, recovery efforts following who were already vulnerable. Such inequities disasters like floods or fires perpetuate injus- u Read the article at bit.ly/Eos-bullying have been glaringly obvious and clearly doc- tice, imposing greater burdens on some fam-

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ilies than on others and increasing the vul- cifically on rural areas has presented two One study of rural resilience identified nerability of those who were already most at very different and conflicting perspectives of regional variations in resilience and specu- risk, such as undocumented persons, renters, these communities’ resilience [ Jerolleman, lated about a correlation between resilience and those living below the poverty line. Evi- 2020]. In the first, rural communities are and extents of economic disparity along dence of the systemic injustices and historical often portrayed as being particularly at risk racial lines [Cutter et al., 2016]. In other trends that have shaped risk landscapes in and less able to act to reduce their vulnerabil- words, although some rural communities the United States can be seen clearly in many ity, adapt to climate change, and recover from exhibit strong social capital and bonds that rural communities, where shrinking econo- disasters. This perspective stems from clear promote resilience, long histories of inequity mies, public health crises, and extractive cor- indications that resources are very scarce at inhibit resilience in others, particularly porate practices have reduced the ability of the local level and that decades of underin- across the South. Research has also indicated local governments to deliver even basic ser- vestment have left many communities failing that rural communities that are geographi- vices, much less prepare for or respond to to provide basic public safety services disasters [ Jerolleman, 2020]. [Doherty, 2004]. These shortages contrast with urban areas, which often have more Two Views of Rural Resilience staff, greater ability to access rainy day funds, Both the media and researchers have paid a and budgets that are typically both larger on Although some rural great deal of attention to climate change a per capita basis and better able to support communities exhibit adaptation challenges faced by urban com- infrastructure demands because of the econ- munities, but much less has been written or omy of scale. strong social capital and studied about rural communities and their Rural communities also often lack zoning bonds that promote unique challenges and, in some cases, advan- or building codes and struggle to enforce tages. One reason for this lack of coverage codes that are in place, thereby missing out resilience, long histories may be a general lack of visibility of rural on opportunities to reduce disaster risk. A of inequity inhibit areas, with many urban and suburban resi- report recently released by the Federal dents having little awareness of rural com- Emergency Management Agency found that resilience in others. munities, even when they are nearby. Yet as jurisdictions with modern building codes of the 2010 census, roughly 19% of the U.S. could collectively avoid at least $32 billion in population, or about 60 million people, still losses over a 20-year period, whereas com- lived in areas considered rural, a rather large munities without modern codes would group to overlook. instead experience greater losses [Federal cally closer to state capitals or urban centers The limited social science research into Emergency Management Agency, 2020]. Sim- are more readily able to gain advantages disaster vulnerability that has focused spe- ilarly, smaller communities with less expe- through regional partnerships and to access rience navigating federal disaster assistance resources for emergency management processes often struggle to understand the [ Jerolleman, 2020]. Many good resources are available that particularities of the regulations, including can support efforts to increase rural resil- when and how to appeal agency decisions Rural Adaptation with an Eye on Equity ience and reduce inequity following and seek additional funds. Furthermore, The two portrayals above each capture ele- disasters. Among them are the following: they often have challenges meeting the ments of the experiences and realities of administrative requirements for applying for rural America, and both point to the unique • The American Flood Coalition’s Flood and receiving assistance because of the use circumstances these communities face. Funding Finder of less sophisticated accounting systems and National and state-level strategies for • The National Association for the record keeping, as well as with paying costs reducing risk from natural hazards, includ- Advancement of Colored People’s tool incurred while awaiting reimbursements ing tools and resources provided to rural kit “In the Eye of the Storm: A People’s [ Jerolleman, 2020]. communities, as well as disaster prepared- Guide to Transforming Crisis and The second perspective is that rural com- ness and recovery efforts, must all account Advancing Equity in the Disaster Con- munities exhibit greater levels of self- for these unique traits and challenges. This tinuum” reliance and are inherently more adaptive accounting should consider local resource • The Federal Emergency Management because of strong social capital, a coherent constraints while also identifying ways to Agency’s (FEMA) guide “Engaging sense of identity, and long- standing relation- build upon the strengths of rural communi- Faith-Based and Community Organi- ships based on reciprocity among community ties. Failing to follow these steps may result zations” members [LaLone, 2012]. This perspective in continuation of policies that do not • FEMA’s “Guide to Expanding Mitiga- reflects perceptions about strengths inherent address the needs of, but instead further tion: Making the Connection to Equity” in close-knit communities with long histories perpetuate inequities in, rural communities, • FEMA’s “Building Cultures of Pre- of adapting to environmental changes. But it likely resulting in successful adaptation for paredness” does not account for the struggles being some but not others. • The Center for American Progress’s keenly felt across much of rural America or Approaches that can help increase the recommendations in “The Path to the disparate outcomes seen among such resilience of rural communities include the Rural Resilience in America” communities. Although some rural commu- following: • The Rural Resiliency Vision and Toolkit nities continue to thrive, others face massive • Building peer networks among commu- losses of population and jobs. nities to facilitate sharing of resources and

22 Eos // MARCH 2021 OPINION

information, such as successful strategies for disaster-affected individuals or communities disaster, Traumatology, 10(3), 145– 164, https://doi .org/ 10 .1177/ F153476560401000302. navigating programs and policies that are not fail this standard. Federal Emergency Management Agency (2020), Building well designed to meet local needs. Peers may • Just recovery must harness the capacity codes save: A nationwide study, Washington, D.C., www share information about successful appeals of communities to transform and adapt while .fema.gov/sites/default/files/2020-11/fema_building-codes -save_study.pdf. processes or about exemptions granted by also honoring local histories of resilience. Freitag, B., et al. (2020), Storytelling—Plots of resilience, agencies in other events, for example. Such Holistic disaster risk reduction requires learning, and discovery in emergency management, J. Emerg. Manage., 18(5), 363– 371, https://doi .org/ 10 .5055/ jem dialogue can broaden the knowledge base and acknowledging and addressing existing .2020.0485. tools that are available and relevant for rural inequalities in risk distribution and histories Jerolleman, A. (2019), Disaster Recovery Through the Lens of communities planning for or coping with of disinvestment in rural areas. Justice, Palgrave Pivot, Cham, Switzerland, https://doi .org/ 10 .1007/978- 3- 030- 04795- 5. disasters. Access to resources and programs must • Jerolleman, A. (2020), Challenges of postdisaster recovery in • Creating strategies that build upon be equal for everyone. This equality implies rural areas, in Louisiana’s Response to Extreme Weather, edited existing social capital in designing pre- the full participation of smaller communi- by S. Laska, pp. 285– 310, Springer, Cham, Switzerland, https:// doi.org/ 10 .1007/ 978- 3- 030- 27205- 0_11. paredness and recovery efforts. For exam- ties, on equal footing with larger and more LaLone, M. B. (2012), Neighbors helping neighbors: An examina- ple, disaster risk reduction efforts that populous areas, in state-level decisionmak- tion of the social capital mobilization process for community resilience to environmental disasters, J. Appl. Soc. Sci., 6(2), account for a shared vision of the commu- ing that determines resource allocation, 209–237, https://doi.org/10.1177/F1936724412458483. nity and shared commitments to retain con- disaster recovery plans, and future risk Smith, A. B. (2020), U.S. Billion–Dollar Weather and Climate nections valued by the community, as well reduction. Disasters, 1980–Present, NCEI Accession 0209268, Natl. Cent. for Environ. Inf., NOAA, Asheville, N.C., https://doi.org/ as efforts that use tools such as storytelling, The COVID-19 crisis is projected to result in 10.25921/stkw-7w73. have been very successful [Freitag et al., drastic cuts to local and state government 2020]. budgets. These cuts will only exacerbate chal- • Modifying disaster recovery processes to lenges already faced by many underresourced By Alessandra Jerolleman (agazzo@gmail account for differences among communities, rural communities at the same time that long- .com), Jacksonville State University, Jackson- such as differing levels of access to credit term impacts from the pandemic and the ville, Ala.; also at Tulane University, New Orle- among municipalities. accompanying economic crisis are likely to ans, La. • Revisiting and revising cost-benefit increase the vulnerability of their residents. assessment methodologies that privilege risk Considering the ongoing trend of rising di- u Read the article at bit.ly/Eos reduction efforts in more populated areas saster losses and the ways in which such loss- -rural-resilience with higher-value infrastructure. es are consistently • Modifying federal grant reimbursement borne dispropor- strategies and cost- sharing requirements for tionately by vul- hazard mitigation and disaster recovery nerable popula- efforts that currently overburden rural com- tions, we simply munities. cannot continue to Beyond those recommendations, policy- ignore the needs of makers, climate adaptation specialists, and rural communities emergency managers must also intentionally and the nearly 20% apply an equity and justice lens to address of the American systemic injustices. This process requires population that tracking unjust outcomes resulting from lives within them. existing and new disaster policies and pro- We have an oppor- grams to determine which are failing to meet tunity to rethink basic needs or are unevenly distributing climate adaptation AGU’s award-winning resources. and disaster pre- Additional principles vital in promoting paredness and re- podcast tells the stories just recovery following disasters include the covery to be more behind the science— following [ Jerolleman, 2019]: inclusive of all and the science • All community members must be able to communities and exercise their agency in support of their per- to break the cycle of behind the history. sonal well-being. This principle cannot be met inequitable impacts if anyone is excluded from the benefits of pub- after each and Subscribe wherever lic policies, such as when policies are irrele- every disaster. you get your podcasts. vant for rural residents or when all options @thirdpod provided by a policy are not understood by References recipients and made available in a timely and Cutter, S. L., K. D. Ash, and C. T. Emrich (2016), Urban- accessible manner. rural differences in disaster Only equality is inherently defensible, resilience, Ann. Am. Assoc. • Geogr., 106(6), 1,236– 1,252, whereas any unequal treatment of different https://doi.org/10.1080/ groups must be justified. Bureaucratic pro- 24694452.2016.1194740. Doherty, G. W. (2004), Crisis cesses that result in drastically different out- in rural America: Critical comes for rural residents, renters, or other incidents, trauma, and

SCIENCE NEWS BY AGU // Eos.org 23 D 24 Eos Images Jerry Grayson/Heliﬁlms Australia PTYLtd/Getty ﬂoodwater fromHurricaneKatrina in2005.Credit: New Orleans,La., housessurroundedbydebrisand by methods tomeasuretheseinequities. New researchisdevelopingandapplying recovery areofteninequitablydistributed. allocated forriskreductionanddisaster Natural hazardimpactsandresources . . . . . CHRISTOPHER EMRICH DISASTERS EQUITY SOCIAL ASSESSING ERIC TATE // MARCH2021 and in

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25 This modeling applies knowledge garnered from intended to help local officials identify communities that disaster case studies describing how chronic marginal- may need support before, during, and after disasters. ization translates to disproportionate adverse outcomes The first modeling and mapping efforts, starting to identify the most vulnerable population groups. Such around the mid-2000s, largely focused on describing populations often include those living in poverty, the spatial distributions of social vulnerability at varying very old and young, minoritized ethnic and racial geographic scales. Over time, research in this area came groups, renters, and recent immigrants [National Acade- to emphasize spatial comparisons between social vul- mies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, 2019]. Social nerability and physical hazards [Wood et al., 2010], mod- vulnerability modelers select demographic variables eling population dynamics following disasters [Myers representing these groups and combine them to con- et al., 2008], and quantifying the robustness of social struct spatial indicators and indexes that enable com- vulnerability measures [Tate, 2012]. parisons of social vulnerability across places. More recent work is beginning to dissolve barriers between social vulnerability and environmental justice Mapping Social Vulnerability scholarship [Chakraborty et al., 2019], which has tradi- Figure 1a is a typical map of tionally focused on root causes of exposure to pollution social vulnerability across the hazards. Another prominent new research direction The use of social United States at the census tract involves deeper interrogation of social vulnerability level based on the Social Vulnera- drivers in specific hazard contexts and disaster phases vulnerability modeling bility Index (SoVI) algorithm of (e.g., before, during, after). Such work has revealed that is expanding in large Cutter et al. [2003]. Spatial repre- interactions among drivers are important, but existing sentation of the index depicts high case studies are ill suited to guiding development of new part because of social vulnerability regionally in indicators [Rufat et al., 2015]. the Southwest, upper Great Plains, Advances in geostatistical analyses have enabled growing awareness of eastern Oklahoma, southern Texas, researchers to characterize interactions more accurately the social equity and southern Appalachia, among among social vulnerability and hazard outcomes. other places. With such a map, users Figure 1b depicts social vulnerability and annualized per implications of can focus attention on select places capita hazard losses for U.S. counties from 2010 to 2019, disasters. and identify population characteris- facilitating visualization of the spatial coincidence of tics associated with elevated vulnera- pre‑event susceptibilities and hazard impacts. Places bilities. ranked high in both dimensions may be priority loca- Many current indexes in the United tions for management interventions. Further, such States and abroad are direct or concep- analysis provides invaluable comparisons between tual offshoots of SoVI, which has been widely replicated places as well as information summarizing state and [e.g., de Loyola Hummell et al., 2016]. The U.S. Centers for regional conditions. Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has also devel- In Figure 2, we take the analysis of interactions a step oped a commonly used social vulnerability index further, dividing counties into two categories: those

A B

Fig. 1. (a) Social vulnerability across the United States at the census tract scale is mapped here following the Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI). Red and pink hues indicate high social vulnerability. (b) This bivariate map depicts social vulnerability (blue hues) and annualized per capita hazard losses (pink hues) for U.S. counties from 2010 to 2019.

26 Eos // MARCH 2021 experiencing annual per capita losses above or below the But this situation national average from 2010 to 2019. The differences may be beginning among individual race, ethnicity, and poverty variables to shift. Following between the two county groups are small. But expressing the adage of “what race together with poverty (poverty attenuated by race) gets measured gets produces quite different results: Counties with high haz- managed,” social ard losses have higher percentages of both impoverished equity metrics are Black populations and impoverished white populations increasingly being than counties with low hazard losses. These county dif- inserted into ferences are most pronounced for impoverished Black disaster manage- populations. ment. Our current work focuses on social vulnerability to At the national floods using geostatistical modeling and mapping. The level, FEMA has research directions are twofold. The first is to develop developed options hazard-specific indicators of social vulnerability to aid in to increase the mitigation planning [Tate et al., 2021]. Because natural affordability of hazards differ in their innate characteristics (e.g., rate of flood insurance onset, spatial extent), causal processes (e.g., urbaniza- [Federal Emergency tion, meteorology), and programmatic responses by gov- Management ernment, manifestations of social vulnerability vary Agency, 2018]. At Fig. 2. Differences in population percentages between counties across hazards. the subnational experiencing annual per capita losses above or below the national The second is to assess the degree to which socially scale, Puerto Rico average from 2010 to 2019 for individual and compound social vul- vulnerable populations benefit from the leading disaster has integrated nerability indicators (race and poverty). recovery programs [Emrich et al., 2020], such as the Fed- social vulnerability eral Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) Individ- into its CDBG Mit- ual Assistance program and the U.S. Department of igation Action Housing and Urban Development’s Community Devel- Plan, expanding its considerations of risk beyond only opment Block Grant (CDBG) Disaster Recovery program. economic factors. At the local level, Harris County, Both research directions posit social vulnerability indi- Texas, has begun using social vulnerability indicators cators as potential measures of social equity. alongside traditional measures of flood risk to introduce equity into the prioritization of flood mitigation projects Social Vulnerability as a Measure of Equity [Harris County Flood Control District, 2019]. Given their focus on social marginalization and eco- Unfortunately, many existing measures of disaster nomic barriers, social vulnerability indicators are equity fall short. They may be unidimensional, using attracting growing scientific interest as measures of single indicators such as income in places where under- inequity resulting from disasters. Indeed, social vulnera- lying vulnerability processes suggest that a multidimen- bility and inequity are related concepts. Social vulnera- sional measure like racialized poverty (Figure 2) would be bility research explores the differential susceptibilities more valid. And criteria presumed to be objective and and capacities of disaster-affected populations, whereas neutral for determining resource allocation, such as eco- social equity analyses tend to focus on population dis- nomic loss and cost-benefit ratios, prioritize asset value parities in the allocation of resources for hazard mitiga- over social equity. For example, following the 2008 tion and disaster recovery. Interventions with an equity flooding in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, cost-benefit criteria sup- focus emphasize full and equal resource access for all ported new flood protections for the city’s central busi- people with unmet disaster needs. ness district on the east side of the Cedar River but not Yet newer studies of inequity in disaster programs for vulnerable populations and workforce housing on the have documented troubling disparities in income, race, west side. and home ownership among those who participate in Furthermore, many equity measures are aspatial or flood buyout programs, are eligible for postdisaster ahistorical, even though the roots of marginalization loans, receive short-term recovery assistance [Drakes may lie in systemic and spatially explicit processes that et al., 2021], and have access to mental health services. originated long ago like redlining and urban renewal. For example, a recent analysis of federal flood buyouts More research is thus needed to understand which mea- found racial privilege to be infused at multiple program sures are most suitable for which social equity analyses. stages and geographic scales, resulting in resources that disproportionately benefit whiter and more urban coun- Challenges for Disaster Equity Analysis ties and neighborhoods [Elliott et al., 2020]. Across studies that quantify, map, and analyze social Investments in disaster risk reduction are largely pri- vulnerability to natural hazards, modelers have faced oritized on the basis of hazard modeling, historical recurrent measurement challenges, many of which also impacts, and economic risk. Social equity, meanwhile, apply in measuring disaster equity (Table 1). The first is has been far less integrated into the considerations of clearly establishing the purpose of an equity analysis by public agencies for hazard and disaster management. defining characteristics such as the end user and

SCIENCE NEWS BY AGU // Eos.org 27 Table 1. Major challenges in measuring social equity equity that strengthen the foundation for policy interventions. Doing so may require expanding current CHALLENGE FOR MEASUREMENT ISSUE approaches to include sensitivity analyses to assess how EQUITY MEASURES CONSIDERATIONS choices of parameters (e.g., input variables, geographic scale) in building social vulnerability indicators affect Aligning analysis with Audience, intended intervention, Analysis purpose end use and users hazard type, disaster phase the statistical stability of resulting measures, and how these measures correlate with observed disaster impacts Assessing distributional versus like dislocation, assistance eligibility, and recovery time. Measuring process equity, identifying Equity mode procedural equity and individual appropriate compound metrics The stakes for improving our understanding of rela- versus compounding inequity tionships among hazards, vulnerability, and social equity Connecting variable selection with are high, as climate disasters from flooding, drought, Reflecting underlying processes vulnerability processes, choosing Validity tropical cyclones, and wildfire have been increasing in of inequity absolute versus relative impact measures their frequency and destruction. By definition, sustainable solutions that empower communities to resist, Linking spatial and temporal Data availability and recover from, and adapt to these threats must be not Scale scales with underlying acquisition costs vulnerability processes only economically viable and environmentally sound but also socially equitable. Well-designed measures of disas- Measurement error and ter equity are an important tool for quantifying disaster Robustness Determining statistical reliability sensitivity analysis disparities, which is the first step toward dismantling them. intended use, the type of hazard, and the disaster stage (i.e., mitigation, response, or recovery). Analyses using References generalized indicators like the CDC Social Vulnerability Chakraborty, J., T. W. Collins, and S. E. Grineski (2019), Exploring the environmental justice implications of Hurricane Harvey flooding in Greater Houston, Texas, Am. J. Index may be appropriate for identifying broad areas of Public Health, 109(2), 244– 250, https://doi .org/ 10.2105/AJPH .2018 .304846. concern, whereas more detailed analyses are ideal for Cutter, S. L., B. J. Boruff, and W. L. Shirley (2003), Social vulnerability to environ- high-stakes decisions about budget allocations and proj- mental hazards, Social Sci. Q., 84(2), 242– 261, https://doi .org/ 10 .1111/ 1540- 6237 .8402002. ect prioritization. de Loyola Hummell, B. M., S. L. Cutter, and C. T. Emrich (2016), Social vulnerability Selecting the relevant modes of equity for analysis is to natural hazards in Brazil, Int. J. Disaster Risk Sci., 7(2), 111– 122, https://doi .org/ 10 crucial. Is the primary interest to quantify disparities in .1007/s13753 - 016 -0090 - 9. the distribution of hazard impacts or procedural dispari- Drakes, O., et al. (2021), Social vulnerability and short- term disaster assistance in the United States, Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct., 53(1), 102010, https://doi .org/ 10 .1016/ j ties in accessing resources? Is the focus on individual .ijdrr.2020 .102010. populations or on combinations of population character- Elliott, J. R., P. L. Brown, and K. Loughran (2020), Racial inequities in the federal buyout of flood- prone homes: A nationwide assessment of environmental adapta- istics? As social inequities often tion, Socius, 6, 2378023120905439, https://doi .org/ 10 .1177/ 2378023120905439. accrue to low-income house- Emrich, C. T., et al. (2020), Measuring social equity in flood recovery funding, Envi- holds, analysts should consider ron. Hazards, 19(3), 228– 250, https://doi .org/ 10 .1080/ 17477891 .2019 .1675578. assessing economic losses in Federal Emergency Management Agency (2018), An affordability framework for the National Flood Insurance Program, Washington, D.C. both absolute and proportional Harris County Flood Control District (2019), Prioritization framework for the terms. implementation of the Harris County Flood Control District 2018 bond projects, A major challenge is to Creating valid measures of Harris Cty. Flood Control Dist., Houston, Texas, www.hcfcd.org/ Portals/ 62/ Resilience/Bond- Program/ Prioritization- Framework/ final_prioritization - framework develop statistically equity requires not only statisti- -report_20190827 .pdf?ver= 2019- 09- 19- 092535- 743. cal expertise but also a funda- Myers, C. A., T. Slack, and J. Singelmann (2008), Social vulnerability and migration robust measures and mental understanding of the in the wake of disaster: The case of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, Popul. Environ., 29(6), 271– 291, https://doi .org/ 10 .1007/ s11111- 008- 0072- y. underlying processes of social best practices for National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (2019), Framing the marginalization. This facilitates Challenge of Urban Flooding in the United States, Natl. Acad. Press, Washington, assessing disaster selection of optimal proxy indica- D.C., https://doi .org/ 10 .17226/ 25381. tors and their geographic scales. Rufat, S., et al. (2015), Social vulnerability to floods: Review of case studies and implications for measurement, Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct., 14, 470– 486, https://doi equity that strengthen However, practical considerations .org/10 .1016/ j . ijdrr .2015 .09 .013. like data availability and cost can Tate, E. (2012), Social vulnerability indices: A comparative assessment using uncer- the foundation for tainty and sensitivity analysis, Nat. Hazards, 63(2), 325– 347, https://doi .org/ 10 lead to indicator selection that .1007/s11069- 012- 0152- 2. policy interventions. diverges from conceptual bases. For Tate, E., et al. (2021), Flood exposure and social vulnerability in the United States, example, for disaster assistance Nat. Hazards, https://doi .org/ 10 .1007/ s11069- 020- 04470- 2. received by households, an equity Wood, N. J., C. G. Burton, and S. L. Cutter (2010), Community variations in social vulnerability to Cascadia- related tsunamis in the US Pacific Northwest, Nat. Hazards, analysis should ideally be conducted at 52(2), 369– 389, https://doi .org/ 10 .1007/ s11069- 009- 9376- 1. the household scale. Unfortunately, data describing some dimensions of Author Information inequity, like race, are rarely collected by disaster agen- Eric Tate (eric-tate@uiowa.edu), University of Iowa, Iowa cies, necessitating analysis using census data at larger City; and Christopher Emrich, University of Central Florida, geographic scales. Orlando The final major challenge is to develop statistically robust measures and best practices for assessing disaster u Read the article at bit.ly/Eos-disaster-equity

28 Eos // MARCH 2021 Nominate a peer for outstanding work in the Earth and space sciences!

Union Fellows Deadline: 15 March Union Medals, Awards, Prizes and Section Awards Deadline: 15 April

agu.org/honors GLOBAL HAZARD GLOBAL HAZARD 30 Eos // MARCH2021 PEOPLE FIT PEOPLE PEOPLE FIT PEOPLE WHERE DO WHERE WHERE DO WHERE MODEL? MODEL? By incorporating human systems, scientists are scientists human systems, incorporating By modeling geohazards with equity in mind. in equity with geohazards modeling INTO A INTO A by RICHARD J. SIMARICHARD

Opposite Page: XXXXXX; This Page: Top Right: XXXX Opposite Page: XXXXXX; This Page: Top Right: XXXX back-to-back magnitude7and5.7 earthquakes and thegroundarounditwereshattered by on 30November2018.Credit:Marc Lester/ Anchorage DailyNews/Associated Press SCIENCE NEWSBY AGU This roadsouthofWasilla, Alaska,

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Earth still shook locations where they should basically change In 2019 GEM published its first compre- during 2020’s pandemic lockdowns. their plans.” hensive map of seismic hazard around the Vitor Silva recalled a request to his orga- The pandemic has changed how govern- globe, which is the result of an extensive nization from Italy’s Civil Protection ments deal with natural disaster prepared- collaborative effort to combine the probabi- Department in March. ness. In a nonpandemic year, countries may listic seismic hazard models of many differ- “One of the directors said, ‘Look, there’s have plans for relief following earthquakes, ent nations and regions of the world. The this global pandemic. It’s going to affect all floods, and landsides, but “these plans organization has continued to update the the countries. There are a lot of uncertain- involve putting a lot of people in closed components of the map since its release. ties when it comes to earthquakes, but we spaces,” Silva said, including “temporary “It’s a dynamic compilation that is able know for sure that within the span of a year, shelters, which a lot of times are tents or to receive the new models that are made we’re going to have earthquakes and, yes, hotels or gymnasiums. That’s probably no available,” said Pagani. some of them are going to be destructive.… longer acceptable now in the time of COVID.” This flexibility is due to OpenQuake, an So should we try to get ahead and identify Silva’s research highlights the impor- open-source hazard and risk calculation the places where there’s a higher likelihood tance of understanding the intersection of tool developed by GEM. The OpenQuake of earthquakes happening and there is also geoscience modeling with human systems engine is the computer code backbone of a good likelihood [of having] a huge impact such as settlement patterns, economics, GEM. OpenQuake code undergoes extensive in terms of COVID?’” and migration; knowing where and who the testing, Pagani said, which makes the tool Scientists make connections between people affected are is essential for effec- ready to accept contributions from a large COVID-19 and earthquake vulnerability in tively modeling natural hazards. modeling community around the world. the aftermath of an earthquake disaster, GEM is a model for how scientists are “OpenQuake is almost a bit of a Franken- when displaced people are often relocated to modeling the processes of Earth with stein because we had to consider function- shelters where proximity to other victims human equity in mind. alities of a lot of tools that exist out there,” puts them at increased risk of diseases. Silva said. The engine is being refined and This query was not completely out of the Collaboration and Openness improved on the basis of community feed- blue for Silva, who is the risk coordinator at in Modeling Natural Hazards back and specific project needs. “We have the Global Earthquake Model Foundation Since its founding in 2009, GEM has been several projects with several governments, (GEM), a scientific organization based in carrying out a broad spectrum of activities bilateral collaborations, international part- Pavia, Italy, whose mission is to calculate that support its “mandate of making the nerships, and we had to improve this tool in and communicate earthquake risk. In world more resilient to earthquakes,” said order to meet the requirements.” August, Silva published a study modeling Marco Pagani, the hazard team coordinator In a way, the researchers said, OpenQuake the potential impact seismic events may at GEM. embodies GEM’s ethos of collaboration, openness, and transparency. “First of all, it’s free: You can go right now to download it and use it. Second, it’s completely transparent, so you can actually When we start running the risk analysis, what we’re open it and see the methodology, see line by doing is simulating many, many, many earthquakes, line to really understand what it’s doing. And third, you can provide your own rou- basically millions of possible earthquakes that might tines, your own algorithms, you can write your own pieces of code and provide this to happen in the future. the community,” Silva said.

Modeling Risk on the Ground Silva’s Risk Team develops exposure models have on coronavirus infection rates. He also To carry out its mission, GEM’s modeling to figure out what human systems are going created a map of high risk areas by combin- work is divided among three core teams. to be exposed to the earthquake hazard. ing models on seismic activity and the Pagani’s Hazard Team assesses the geo- That is, what are “the buildings, the bridges, potential economic costs of building dam- physical phenomena of seismic hazard: the people, basically everything that is age with data from Johns Hopkins Univer- Where, how much, and how frequently is exposed to the seismic hazards?” said Silva. sity on the number of COVID-19 cases in the ground going to shake? The Risk Team However, the amount and the quality of each country. Since the map was created in then figures out what is going to be exposed data available about buildings vary from April,“We had destructive earthquakes in and vulnerable to that earthquake hazard: country to country, which in turn affects Mexico, in Greece, and in Croatia,” Silva Where are the buildings and people, and what kinds of information can be input into said. When Silva went back to check the how vulnerable are they to harm? The the risk model. map, he found that all those places had Social Vulnerability Team assesses the “If I start with countries like the United been highlighted as having the highest risk resiliency of communities to earthquakes States, like Canada, like New Zealand, like for earthquakes and COVID-19. on the basis of socioeconomic indicators Australia, like Switzerland, these countries “It’s almost like I want to say, ‘I told you such as the Human Development Index, the actually have extremely complete catalogs so,’” Silva said. “I think this map can help number of hospital beds per capita, and of the built environment,” Silva said. “So national authorities by looking at different crime levels. there’s information about where the build-

32 Eos // MARCH 2021 Global seismic hazard model representing ground acceleration. Credit: Vitor Silva, Global Earthquake Model

ings are, the main construction materials, For each simulated earthquake, GEM meaning that this information often needs how many stories, construction age. All this estimates the shaking on the ground, the to be gathered elsewhere. information, it’s available in public data- damage to the buildings, and the expected Having information on how buildings bases.” losses. After considering all the different were constructed is crucial for modeling Other nations, many in underdeveloped seismic events and their probabilities their vulnerability to natural hazards, said regions of central Asia and Africa, are less (an M9 earthquake is fortunately much rarer Nicky Hastings, the risk assessment project likely to have exact information about the than smaller seismic events), the risk anal- lead at Natural Resources Canada. “Wood buildings within their borders. But they may yses generate the probabilities of exceeding has a lot of flexibility, for example. Some of have socioeconomic data—population loca- different levels of loss. The model also takes the more rigid structures of the unrein- tions, economic composition—that can be into account the vulnerability, or fragility, of forced masonry obviously don’t flex as well used to estimate how many buildings can be the affected buildings. when you have ground shaking.… And expected in different locations. “There is “For a lot of the countries, this is the first that’s very different from, say, a flooding more uncertainty, but it is still possible for time that an open-sourced risk model was event. A wooden structure does not do well us to come up with something,” Silva said. available for the country, which is a funda- in flooding events, but a concrete structure Finally, there are countries for which mental tool for people to start investing in will.” Hastings and her team are developing almost no building information is available. disaster risk management measures,” said seismic risk as well as coastal flooding mod- “In this case, we’ve been using a lot of new Silva. For example, GEM provided modeling els for Canada. technologies, like remote sensing satellite and data for northern Africa, western Africa, Unfortunately, the Canadian census, data or OpenStreetMap data,” Silva said. northeastern Europe, northeastern Asia, which is taken every 4 years, does not Using satellite data, it is possible to under- Mexico, and the Korean Peninsula. Recently, include information on the construction of stand where urbanized areas are, for exam- GEM was also added to the Nasdaq Risk buildings. “So it’s information that we have ple, and estimate the average sizes or Modelling service to better inform financial been developing over the years and using heights of buildings in those areas. “It’s and insurance markets. some different methodologies to collect and obviously much more time-consuming but then to develop algorithms to understand,” something that is necessary to do for some Limits of Census Data Hastings said. countries.” Before GEM came along, there were other Before the advent of Google Maps, Hast- All told, the global exposure model global seismic risk models, such as the ings’s collaborators at the University of includes 1.3 billion residential, 90.9 million Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Pro- British Columbia collected information commercial, and 35.5 million industrial gram, which was developed in 1992. These about different types of construction by buildings. The estimated price tag of all that older models tended to have vulnerability simply walking by and observing buildings real estate? About $203.6 trillion. and exposure estimates that were not tai- from the outside. Now they are able to use “We need to make sure that all of this lored to specific counties. “Our knowledge, photographs on Google Street View, which information is captured on the exposure technology, and tools evolved a lot since the “was a really big advance to help us get the model,” said Silva. “When we start running ’90s,” Silva said. construction types and get a sense of what the risk analysis, what we’re doing is simu- Despite the importance of building and that looks like,” Hastings said. lating many, many, many earthquakes, demographics data for risk modeling, it is Hastings and her colleagues are in the basically millions of possible earthquakes still difficult to get some crucial information process of developing an open-source flood that might happen in the future.” directly through most national censuses, risk modeling tool. “I think there’s still a

SCIENCE NEWS BY AGU // Eos.org 33 Global seismic exposure model representing average annual losses of building replacement cost. Credit: Vitor Silva, Global Earthquake Model

long way to go. It’s not the same level as the “The problem is that every country has Researchers outside the government, how- seismic model is,” she said. slightly different data in their census,” ever, typically won’t have access to that Hastings’s team has created consistent Crowley said. “So one country will tell us the level of detail to protect the confidentiality and standardized maps that could be number of dwellings, they might tell us of the data, Spencer said. It is possible to applied to natural hazards modeling. In the about the number of buildings, there might collaborate with the Census Bureau and United States, a new database allows prop- be information on the height of those build- have them run a more in-depth analysis erty owners to get an easy-to-understand ings, the age of those buildings, and in some through the Research Data Center, which indicator of the potential for flooding now cases, the external material.” allows qualified researchers access to more and over the next several decades. Hastings and Crowley both also want to detailed data than the bureau would nor- “My dream is to do the same kind of thing investigate the movement of people when mally release. with the various geohazards,” Hastings said. assessing seismic vulnerability because the “It is a way to, for statistical purposes, The date buildings were constructed also distribution of the population changes use very fine grained data,” Spencer said. matters, because building codes have throughout the day as people commute “So if you wanted to look at disparities in changed over time, said Helen Crowley, a from home to work and back. risk profiles, going down to a very fine seismic risk consultant at the nonprofit “We want to use that data in the future grained geographic level, you could do that. Eucentre. Crowley and Eucentre recently and look at how people move during the You wouldn’t be able to report it for an indi- helped develop and publish the exposure week, during seasons,” Crowley said. “Obvi- vidual city block, but you could report it for model for European seismic risk in close col- ously, where people are in the summer, large aggregates of city blocks to say these laboration with GEM and as part of the Euro- where they are in the winter is very different. populations are at higher risk.” pean Commission’s Horizon 2020 Seismol- So these are all things that we want to add to In addition, the U.S. Department of ogy and Earthquake Engineering Research the model in the kitchen, but by now we Housing and Urban Development sponsors Infrastructure Alliance for Europe project. don’t have that in our model.” These types the American Housing Survey, which is con- Understanding when seismic design of data also are not captured in a census. ducted every other year and provides up-to- codes were introduced and enforced helps “The [U.S.] Census itself has hardly any- date information about the physical condi- develop the model to better reflect the vul- thing,” said Bruce Spencer, a statistician at tion of homes and neighborhoods, the cost nerability of different buildings. For exam- Northwestern University who has partici- of maintaining homes, and who lives in ple, after the 1908 Messina earthquake, Ital- pated in evaluations of population estimates those homes. ian design codes recommended that by the Census Bureau. “I think the first step “I think that this is a very ripe area for buildings be able to withstand more lateral is for the natural hazards community to people working in natural hazards and peo- force. However, those building codes were think about what information they would ple more familiar with social science and initially required only in areas where earth- like to get their hands on for which geo- social surveys to collaborate on,” Spencer quakes had occurred but not across the graphic areas, and then to try to see where said. whole of Italy. But as more earthquakes we can find that data.” occurred over the following century, more The American Community Survey, an Social Vulnerability municipalities required seismic design ongoing demographic survey program from In addition to modeling how natural hazards codes. Records of adoption and implemen- the U.S. Census Bureau, may include more pose risk to buildings, scientists are begin- tation of seismic design codes varied within detailed information than the annual ning to assess the differing social vulnera- a single country, therefore, as well as across decadal census, with a higher temporal res- bilities populations have in recovering from international borders. olution of updated results each year. natural hazards.

34 Eos // MARCH 2021 GEM has a small team dedicated to This neighborhood archetype model as part of an effort to understand the priori- assessing social vulnerability following a shows different neighborhood profiles of ties and values different communities have seismic event. In calculating the direct costs why a place may be more likely to be vul- surrounding coastal flooding. They are of seismic events, “we’re talking about dol- nerable; one neighborhood may have a developing a guideline to set best practices, lars, and we’re talking about people,” Silva higher concentration of elderly and low- “because a model is a model, but you don’t said. income residents, whereas another may know if it actually works until you test it in By collecting many socioeconomic indi- have more residents who don’t speak the community,” Hastings said. cators at the global scale, such as the English or French as their first language, The Semiahmoo collaboration “brings Human Development Index (used by United which suggests different challenges for together some of the Indigenous Knowledge Nations Development Programme and recovering from a natural disaster. with the scientific knowledge, and it came including factors such as per capita income, “We are not trying to label these neigh- about from that more holistic perspective,” life expectancy, and education levels), crime borhoods as these things,” Yip said. “We are she said. levels, and the number of hospital beds per just giving a high-level view of what is driv- The Semiahmoo were a community capita, GEM was able to create a composite ing social vulnerability” to help practitioners before there was a Canada-U.S. border. indicator for social vulnerability that could prioritize where to focus. When the border was put in place, the com- help prioritize resources to assist areas with Integrating social sciences is “something munity was severed, Hastings said. This both high direct risk of seismic events and that is often lacking in the hazard field separation was evident when, at a confer- social vulnerability. because it is usually done by engineers, but ence, a counselor stood up and mentioned Mojtaba Sadegh, a civil engineering pro- they don’t have the training toward the the large differences in coastal flooding fessor at Boise State University whose social side,” Yip said. models produced by the U.S. side and those research has focused on flooding, drought, So far, this work is still very top-down produced by the Canadian side. Now Hast- and wildfires, uses income as a proxy for and has been implemented only in British ings and her team are working with their vulnerability because wealth can buffer Columbia, but Yip plans to expand the U.S. counterparts at NOAA and the Univer- against some of the effects of these hazards. approach to all of Canada after establishing sity of Washington to clarify what these differences are. “The model inputs are different, the modeling is different, and of course, there are political differences,” Hastings said. We’re trying to model the world, right? And we’re “And you don’t realize it because you trying to model the future of the world. tend to work within your country until you start working together,” she added. “The really cool thing about this specific study is we’re really starting to learn, cross border, some of those big differences…and you may For example, the smoke caused by wildfires whether the model reflects reality on the not be able to resolve them all right away, kills more people than the fires themselves, ground by working with people living in but at least you can bring some clarity in but those with the economic means can these neighborhoods. terms of what the differences are.” afford HEPA filters and advanced air condi- “We can’t have just a data-driven Silva agreed. “The development of these tioning to mitigate their effect, Sadegh said. [model] about people without talking to models involved literally hundreds of peo- These human factors need to be incorpo- people,” Yip said. ple around the world. We did dozens of rated into hazard modeling. Sadegh agreed. “The purpose of any meetings and workshops,” he said. “We Although social vulnerability indexes can model is to improve human livelihood and went to all these different places, we held help map where the most and least vulnera- to save human lives. At the end of the day, meetings with people, we showed the ble areas are, practitioners find it hard to this is the ultimate goal.” results, we ran the calculations with them,” use this information, said Jackie Yip, a Silva said. “We identified a lot of mistakes, a coastal risk scientist at Natural Resources Hazards and Models Crossing Borders lot of errors in the model by working with Canada. “If you don’t know why a neighbor- To achieve better equity in natural hazard the local people. I also think that something hood is vulnerable, then how do you reduce modeling, the process needs to be collabo- that maybe differentiates [the GEM model] their vulnerability?” rative and global, experts say. Natural haz- a little bit is the fact that it was a commu- Vulnerability is made up of many dimen- ards don’t stop at borders even if how they nity effort.” sions, and the factors driving it are depen- are modeled differs on either side. “We’re trying to model the world, right?” dent on both the context and the type of When GEM works on building a model for said Hastings. “We’re trying to model the hazard, Yip said. a certain region, for example, it makes sure future of the world.” Armed with Canadian census data, Yip is to first get in touch with the community using machine learning computer algo- leaders, Pagani said. “We try to engage them Author Information rithms to find patterns in what drives social into those projects because we recognize the Richard J. Sima (@richardsima), Science vulnerability across different neighbor- importance of working with local experts.” Writer hoods based on indicators related to hous- Hastings and the Geological Survey of ing conditions, financial agency, social inte- Canada are working with the Semiahmoo, a u Read the article at bit.ly/ gration, and individual autonomy. First Nation community on the Pacific coast, Eos-hazards-people

SCIENCE NEWS BY AGU // Eos.org 35 36 Eos // MARCH2021

Opposite Page: XXXXXX; This Page: Top Right: XXXX Opposite Page: XXXXXX; This Page: Top Right: XXXX Do? Can Science What More Impacts— Unnatural Have Hazards Natural in Panama City, Fla.,in2018.Credit:REUTERS/Terray Sylvester A signhangsonatreeinfrontof housedamagedbyHurricaneMichael KORENA ROMA HOWLEY DI by ABOUT DONE IT. BE CAN WHY POLICIES ARE FAILING—AND WHAT MANAGERS EMERGENCY AND EXPLORE SCIENTISTS,HAZARDS, POLICYMAKERS, DISPROPORTIONATELY FROM NATURAL AS DISADVANTAGED COMMUNITIES SUFFER SCIENCE NEWSBY AGU

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any measures, 2020 was an extraordinarily at Massachusetts Maritime Academy. Montano received challenging year—and natural hazards firsthand experience with recovery efforts in New Orle- played no small role. In North America alone, ans while working with nonprofits in the aftermaths of a record number of Atlantic storms caused Katrina and the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. “What I saw nearly 400 deaths and billions of dollars in when I looked around was that all of these needs were damage, wildfires burned nearly 9 million acres going unmet, especially in communities of color in 13 U.S. states, and multiple earthquakes of throughout the city.” significant magnitude damaged or destroyed Kwok notes that when speaking about the increased thousands of homes and buildings in Puerto Rico. need for hazard mitigation and response in vulnerable Worldwide, COVID-19 caused more than 1.5 million communities, it’s important to recognize the difference deaths, and storm and monsoon flooding affected mil- between an equality approach and an equity approach. lions across Asia. An equality approach distributes aid, for example, As climate change leads to a growing number of severe regardless of background, while an equity approach weather events and as natural hazards increasingly affect takes individual circumstances into consideration. “If communities on multiple fronts, both scientists and poli- we’re looking at equity, we know that [certain] commu- cymakers have a challenging task: ensuring that solutions nities, because of decades and decades of disinvestment, and recommendations arising from scientific research are are coming into natural hazard events much more vul- communicated effectively and applied equitably. nerable…. If we’re going to support these communities The latter challenge is particularly critical. According in their response and recovery, more investment is to the World Bank, economically disadvantaged popula- needed to ensure that they get back on their feet.” tions make up a disproportionate number of those affected by natural hazards worldwide. Such populations Connecting the Science live in low-lying areas prone to flooding, in older build- As with nearly all issues related to natural hazards, the ings less able to withstand earthquakes or to seal out challenge of increasing community preparedness and hazardous air, and in the path of increasingly frequent building resilience begins with science. Sophisticated and powerful storms. earthquake early-warning systems, increasingly accu- These communities “are first more exposed, and then rate storm forecasting, and innovative flood risk and more vulnerable,” said Alan Kwok, disaster resilience flood mitigation projects provide communities with the director for Northern California tools they need to respond to impending hazard events, Grantmakers, a regional fund- and infrastructure design and engineering improve- ing organization. In the United ments help to reduce the damage suffered during and States, residents of low- income after hazards. communities are simultane- Yet even as the science exists to forecast hazards and “THE FACT THAT WE CAN ously less able to move away protect against the damage they inflict, the most vulner- LOOK BACK AT RESEARCH from hazardous places and less able communities continue to feel the brunt of each able—due to time and resource event. The disconnect, said Montano, lies at the inter- THAT’S 70 YEARS OLD constraints—to prepare for or section of science and policy. AND SAY ‘THIS STILL respond to disasters. “Financial “We’re very clear in our research about who is vulner- resources are a huge predictor able in our communities, why they’re vulnerable, and HASN’T BEEN of whether you’re prepared and what we need to do to make them less vulnerable,” she can recover,” Kwok said. said. “The fact that we can look back at research that’s INTEGRATED INTO When Hurricane Katrina 70 years old and say ‘this still hasn’t been integrated POLICY’ IS A SUGGESTION struck the Gulf Coast in 2005, into policy’ is a suggestion that there’s been a failure nearly a million of the region’s there.” THAT THERE’S BEEN A residents were impoverished, Montano said that for scientists to address these and communities of color in issues, it’s important not only to center more vulnerable FAILURE THERE.” New Orleans were particularly populations in their research but also to ensure that vulnerable. In Puerto Rico, their results are being driven home to policymakers. more than 40% of the popula- “There are a lot of disaster researchers, emergency man- tion was living in poverty when agement researchers, who understand that the work that Hurricane Maria caused wide- they’re doing could bring immense value to policy and spread devastation in 2017. In both instances, failures in practice, but there are significant barriers for those two government response were met with criticism and worlds to really be bridged,” she said. deeply underscored disparities in access to resources and Among those barriers for scientists, according to seis- the ability to recover and rebuild. mologist Lucy Jones, are knowledge transfer and com- “The approach we were taking was extremely ineffec- munication challenges, lack of direct collaboration, and tive and also extremely unjust,” said Samantha Mon- an internal culture that fails to reward involvement in tano, an assistant professor of emergency management policy discussions. Jones is the founder of the Dr. Lucy

38 Eos // MARCH 2021 Jones Center for Science and Society, which advocates that they would like to address with scientific input. This using science to develop community resilience. While community science outlook works to place community with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), she spent a year needs at the forefront of the process of defining the partnering with the Los Angeles mayor’s office on seis- types of questions that are asked and approaches that mic policies. are pursued to inform resilience-building efforts. “Our job [as scientists] is to say, ‘Here’s what the problem is,’ and not how to solve it,” she said. “But if A Seat at the Table you present a problem without a solution, you disincen- For scientists, practitioners, and policymakers to code- tivize action.” velop and implement ideas—and for those ideas to Jones said it’s important for physical scientists to col- effectively address inequities in the system—they must laborate with social scientists to better connect with the first find a way to speak to one human side of research. “There’s a lot of information in another. the social sciences that helps you do a better job,” she “Oftentimes miscommuni- said, emphasizing that physical scientists must also cation isn’t intentional; it’s just learn how to apply the results of social science research. that we’re all speaking differ- “[It’s] an acknowledgment that logical reasoning is not ent languages,” said Natasha “IF YOU PRESENT A the only factor that goes into people’s decisionmaking.” Malmin, a doctoral candidate in PROBLEM WITHOUT A It’s also important to understand the nuances of dif- the Joint Public Policy Program ferent locations and communities and their individual at Georgia State University and SOLUTION, YOU needs, according to Gina Tonn, a senior water resources the Georgia Institute of Tech- DISINCENTIVIZE ACTION.” engineer with the Delaware Department of Natural nology. Resources and Environmental Control. According to Malmin spent 7 years as a Tonn, research conducted on a broad national or geohealth scientist at the Centers graphic scale doesn’t necessarily apply at the local level, for Disease Control and Pre- where practitioners may be thinking more about how vention, where she focused on individual homeowners or members of a small commu- climate change research and disaster preparedness and nity are managing risk. And even at the community response. Today she’s a fellow of the William Averette level, requirements vary. “The mitigation strategy is Anderson Fund, which seeks to increase representation going to be really different for a wealthier coastal com- in mitigation- related research fields by supporting peo- munity versus a coastal community with fewer ple of color who are pursuing hazards and disaster stud- resources,” she noted. ies and providing a path for their work to reach other One way to better understand what individual com- scientists, policymakers, and community organizations. munities need is to involve their members in the devel- “We have the structure, through appropriate lobby- opment of ideas from the very beginning, said Tim ing, for scientists to have a seat at the table,” Malmin Brown, a research professor in the atmospheric sciences said. But even when policymakers integrate science, the division of the Nevada- based Desert Research Institute research may not be expansive enough to encompass and director of the Western Regional Climate Center. “It both physical and social hazards. In other words, it may allows us to understand their need, how they’re seeing be missing the human factor. the result as it evolves,” he said. “Working together, we “Within the world of science, we may give, literally, a can try and achieve a common outcome.” seat but not necessarily a voice,” Malmin said. “We may According to Brown, it helps to have a broad and give a voice, but the language isn’t there…. It goes back expanded network and to develop rapport and trust with to, ‘How are we understanding what the problem is?’” communities, in part by serving on committees and Malmin said that as a start, community advocates attending meetings. “We’re constantly hearing about should join scientists and policymakers at the table. what’s going on on the ground and thinking, ‘How can “Advocates can help broaden the narrative and refine we connect that with what we know about science?’” the problem,” she said. “I wouldn’t be able to articulate Scientists should, above all, be proactive. At AGU, the the cascading effects of hazards and how policies can Hazards Equity Working Group brings together natural shape and decide who’s vulnerable and who’s not if I hazards scientists who want their research to have didn’t live in those communities.” meaningful applications and aims to provide them with According to Beth Butler, executive director of New the tools they need to work with an equity lens. Among Orleans–based A Community Voice, the issues faced by their recommendations: Make demographic and census affected communities often begin with policies that data available with research, and think about risk man- exacerbate, or even create, vulnerabilities. When Hurri- agement communication and how factors such as local cane Laura hit Lake Charles, La., in August 2020, resi- messaging can influence behavior. dents of the industrial city—where the poverty rate is In addition, AGU’s Thriving Earth Exchange connects more than double the national rate—lost their homes scientists with communities that have identified chal- and faced damage to their communities even as they lenges (many of which are related to natural hazards) coped with worsening COVID-19 rates. The city, said

SCIENCE NEWS BY AGU // Eos.org 39 Butler, already suffers from unmitigated development For Williams, one of the biggest challenges when on land that is cheap and accessible but increasingly vul- working with scientists is translating scientific data into nerable to flooding. “They need to connect with the peo- more generally digestible information. “One of the ple who live there,” Butler said of policymakers. “They things that I have been most surprised about through the need the representation of lower- and moderate-income entire mitigation conversation is how stovepiped we all people who represent groups that are actually involved are,” she said. “BuildStrong endeavors to break down in these fights…. You have to have the people involved.” those stovepipes and get everyone talking, because…a Butler said that to effectively communicate issues such lot of things get lost in translation.” as climate change and its role in weather-related hazard Williams said she particularly appreciates those events, it’s also necessary for policymakers to understand researchers who are able to have one foot in science and the culture of regional communities, such as those along one foot in policy discussions. They help tell a necessary the Gulf Coast. These are communities, she said, that are story in a way that better demonstrates the risks being tied to the land—to fishing, farming, and a legacy of faced. “We have to show [communities] that there are inhabitance going back hundreds of years or, for Indige- very real steps, tested and grounded in science, that they nous communities, even further. “These considerations can take to at least reduce that risk and to become more have to be brought into the whole panoply of issues and resilient,” she said. campaigns around how to mitigate…the climate change Derrick Hiebert is a hazard mitigation strategist with [effects that are] wreaking havoc on these families who Washington State’s King County Emergency Manage- live in coastal communities” and other areas vulnerable ment. He believes that to get the information needed, to such hazards as tornadoes and flooding. practitioner involvement should begin as early as the Though community advocates may increasingly find a design of the research idea. And the research itself must place in the conversation, progress in collaboration include social factors to be practical. between even scientists and policymakers alone can be “What I could use from researchers is more informa- noteworthy. Pamela Williams, executive director of the tion on what I need to do to change the vulnerability BuildStrong Coalition, emphasized the important role sci- equation for a place,” he said. “I need to know what the entists played recently in passing legislation that directly root cause is…because we understand how to retrofit a benefits vulnerable communities. Williams was the prin- bridge or elevate a house. But we don’t necessarily know cipal architect and negotiator of the federal Disaster how to [approach] social mitigation or investments in Recovery Reform Act, which was signed into law in 2018. human capital…. [Which] investments in a community The reforms incorporated, in part, lessons learned from are going to have the greatest return when it comes to 2017’s deadly and destructive natural hazards, which reducing risk and reducing disparity in the way people included some of the costliest hurricanes seen in the suffer disaster outcomes?” United States. A key accom- Hiebert acknowledged that knowing how to collabo- plishment was the allocation of rate with scientists can be a challenge, but he thinks that 6% of annual disaster spending in some cases, such collaboration can come down to a for predisaster mitigation, quick phone call, to “maintaining relationships as administered through a Federal opposed to trying to create formal engagements.” His “WE UNDERSTAND HOW Emergency Management advice to researchers: “Develop relationships, get to TO RETROFIT A BRIDGE Agency (FEMA) program called know people, get involved in the emergency manage- Building Resilient Infrastructure ment community, and people will start listening.” OR ELEVATE A HOUSE, and Communities (BRIC). BUT WE DON’T “We were able to success- Toward a More Collaborative Future fully participate in that conver- Despite the many barriers and challenges that exist, sev- NECESSARILY KNOW sation and drive that policy eral programs currently under way prove that scientists, because we brought new play- practitioners, and policymakers are ready to be on the HOW TO [APPROACH] ers to the table [who provided] same page. SOCIAL MITIGATION OR significant amounts of risk Anne Wein, a USGS principal investigator based in data,” Williams explained. “It California, analyzes data from multihazard scenarios INVESTMENTS IN was truly a conversation and a such as ShakeOut, ARkStorm, and HayWired—large, col- HUMAN CAPITAL.” legislative policy discussion laborative, interdisciplinary projects with input from founded in science and data, Earth scientists, engineers, and social scientists. In an and that’s how we were able to effort to better connect with decisionmaking, Wein and get a bipartisan agreement…. other team members translate scientific data from the We [showed] that investments scenarios into information about societal consequences. in mitigation have [anywhere] “The beauty of these scenario projects is that we are from a $4 to $11 return on investment—and we had the cocreating with partners and stakeholders,” she said, professionals and data to back that up.” citing as an example collaborative work with regional

40 Eos // MARCH 2021 “IN THE BIGGER-PICTURE economists for the HayWired project. “We are really said. “I have the most impact POLICY CONVERSATION, working side by side with people.” when I’m working with people Hiebert cites FEMA’s BRIC program as one with an who already know me.” She WE ABSOLUTELY NEED TO outlying focus on equity and collaboration. The program added that leadership at aca- RECOGNIZE THAT THERE incentivizes, for instance, public outreach and commu- demic institutions should nity and agency partnerships, as well as projects that explore how they can support ARE PEOPLE WHO REMAIN benefit socially vulnerable populations and those that those who want to be involved account for future conditions and climate change devel- in policy. “Cultural change UNSEEN FOR A VARIETY opment trends. Hiebert—who along with other emer- really does have to happen,” OF REASONS, AND WE gency management professionals contributed to BRIC’s she said, and though it may not development—believes such incentives are ground- be something one advocate can CAN’T FAIL TO ADDRESS breaking. With this program, he said, “We’ve institu- accomplish, individuals can THEIR NEEDS.” tionalized the idea that places that are more likely to help shift the outlook and the suffer loss and recover slowly get more investment, or at practical policies of their insti- least prioritized investment.” tutions. Said Williams, whose role with the BuildStrong Coali- Rather than use the term sci- tion focused initially on ensuring that BRIC would be as ence communication, which she successful and effective as possible, “In the bigger- believes implies a unilateral process, Jones talks about picture policy conversation, we absolutely need to recog- science activation, or empowering people to use science. nize that there are people who remain unseen for a vari- She works with young scientists on how to engage with ety of reasons, and we can’t fail to address their needs… policymakers, including through interaction with both and that’s why we are such large advocates of systemic state and federal legislators. With the help of such experi- investments in resilience.” ences, these students may become the people who, as As part of resilience-building, Williams highlighted Williams advocated, bridge the science–policy gap and tell the need for effective messaging, beginning at the the stories that will lead to action. policy-planning level with creative partnerships that can “Fundamentally,” Jones said, “until we change how help present a unified statement. the larger society, including policymakers, [is] trained to At the local level, Wein said, it’s important first to lis- use scientific information, we aren’t going to solve the ten to community members to understand what they problem.” consider their own vulnerabilities to be. “We’ve got all this wonderful science,” she said, “but how does it reso- Author Information nate with the community?” Korena Di Roma Howley (korenahowley@gmail .com), Like Brown and Malmin, Jones believes that to under- Science Writer stand a community’s needs, it’s important to engage on a personal level. “Be part of your own community,” she u Read the article at bit.ly/Eos-hazard-impacts

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SCIENCE NEWS BY AGU // Eos.org 41 RESEARCH SPOTLIGHT

Tracking How Plastic Moves in the Coastal Ocean

Plastic debris floats near the ocean surface off Bali, Indonesia. Credit: iStock.com/Nuture

t least 8 million tons of plastic waste with a wave-generating paddle at one end and relative density of the particles and their end up in the ocean annually, collect- a beach section to dissipate waves at the location within the water column had the A ing in great swirling patches on the other. The researchers first released plastic largest influence on drift behavior. Particles surface and even sinking to the deepest particles between 4 and 12 millimeters wide— on the surface tended to move shoreward, depths. Researchers know that most of this on par with some of the most common pieces pushed by the action of Stokes drift. Sunken plastic litter originates on land, but it is less of ocean litter—and with different densities particles also moved shoreward along the clear how it moves around in the coastal zone, into still water. They then generated non- seabed, transported by the wave boundary where ocean waves meet the beach. breaking waves with varying periods and layer motion. In a new study, Alsina et al. build on previ- steepness and tracked the 3D trajectories of Further research is needed to understand ous theoretical work considering wave- the particles to find out how differences in the behavior of plastic particles in the surf induced particle drift with an experimental size and density affected wave-induced and swash zone. But the authors note that the setup. The team used a 16-meter- long flume transport. study provides an experimental look at phys- In the experimental setup, most of the par- ical principles driving plastic behavior in the ticles tended to move on the surface of the shallow coastal zone, a critical step for future water or close to the bed, although the work to combat marine pollution. ( Journal of u Read the latest news authors note that under real- world condi- Geophysical Research: Oceans, https://doi .org/ at Eos.org tions, particles would likely be more distrib- 10.1029/2020JC016294, 2020) —Kate Wheeling, uted in the water. The team found that the Science Writer

42 Eos // MARCH 2021 RESEARCH SPOTLIGHT

A Census of Snowdrifts in Northern Alaska

nowdrifts are iconic features of frigid cutbanks or lake edges, in trenches and gul- high-latitude landscapes. They are also lies, and near outcrops. Simportant natural phenomena that The results confirm the outsized impor- dictate how fresh water flows through those tance that snowdrifts have on a region’s landscapes once snows melt in the warmer hydrology. Drifts accounted for only 18% of months. Despite their importance, however, the land area in the study region, but they snowdrifts remain understudied. contained 40% of the snow water equivalent. In a new study, Parr et al. use a combination This disparity also highlights another find- of lidar and structure-from-motion photo- ing of the study: that snowdrifts are almost grammetry to chart snowdrift formation over always found concomitantly with scour 126 square kilometers of Alaskan tundra regions—areas with lower than average snow Snowdrifts, like those seen here at a lake in the between 2012 and 2018. The term drift may coverage. northern foothills of the Brooks Range in Alaska, are imply a transient, shifting nature, but the The scientists caution that even though important drivers of ecology in the frozen tundra of new research describes snowdrifts as rather the snowdrifts they observed showed Alaska. Credit: Charles Parr reliable phenomena, occurring in the same remarkable consistency over the 6-year study locations and configurations year after year period, they are still complex formations that during the study period. The researchers say depend on a host of variables subject to cli- this is largely because the drifts are a function mate change. Rain-on-snow events, for matically altering the landscape. (Water of underlying topography, tending to accu- example, which are predicted to increase in Resources Research, https://doi.org/10.1029/ mulate along low points in the landscape that the region in the future, can cause icy crusts 2020WR027823, 2020) —David Shultz, are protected from wind, such as along river to form, preventing drifting entirely and dra- Science Writer

Drivers of Upper Atmosphere Climate Change

oncerns about climate change often focus on Earth’s lower Although the lower atmosphere has been warming, the upper atmo- atmosphere, where most of the weather we experience occurs. sphere—above 100 kilometers in altitude—has been cooling in recent CHowever, climate change also affects the upper atmosphere. decades. Previous research suggests that this cooling trend is driven by Understanding climate trends in the upper atmosphere could aid many a combination of greenhouse gas emissions, shifts in Earth’s magnetic applications, such as planning satellite missions and interpreting their field, and long- term variations in solar and geomagnetic activity asso- data, managing space debris, and assessing the risk of disruptive space ciated with the solar cycle. weather. To further understand these drivers, the author used the Whole Research by Cnossen provides new insights into trends and drivers of Atmosphere Community Climate Model with thermosphere and ion- upper atmosphere climate change, highlighting the important roles of osphere extension (WACCM-X) to simulate changes in atmospheric both carbon dioxide and Earth’s magnetic field. temperature and density from Earth’s surface to an altitude of 500 kilometers between 1950 and 2015. The analysis included careful accounting of the effects of the solar cycle—typically a major challenge in upper atmosphere research. After factoring in these effects, the simulation confirmed earlier suggestions that rising carbon dioxide levels are the main driver of long-term cooling in the portion of the upper atmosphere known as the thermosphere. However, long- term shifts in Earth’s magnetic field also appear to play a significant role in thermospheric climate change toward the North and South Poles. The analysis also addressed the ionosphere, the charged portion of the upper atmosphere. The simulation suggested that long-term changes in ionospheric density are driven by both carbon dioxide and Earth’s magnetic field. Magnetic field effects on the ionosphere’s climate are particularly pronounced above a region that stretches roughly from northeastern South America across the Atlantic to western Africa. These findings could help inform future research into upper atmo- The green glow of aurorae is seen on the horizon in this photo taken from the sphere climate change and its long-term implications. ( Journal of Geo- International Space Station as it passed over Europe in March 2015. Credit: NASA physical Research: Space Physics, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JA028623, Johnson Space Center, CC BY-NC 2.0 (bit.ly/ccbync2-0) 2020) —Sarah Stanley, Science Writer

SCIENCE NEWS BY AGU // Eos.org 43 RESEARCH SPOTLIGHT

New Insights into Uncertainties About Earth’s Rising Temperature

limate models help researchers predict ics as a closed system in which radiative cool- The team also found that global climate how much Earth’s temperature will ing and convective heating balance each other models may underestimate climate sensitiv- Crise because of greenhouse gas emis- out. ity, whereas cloud-resolving models tend to sions. However, even with the same starting The researchers analyzed climate sensitiv- predict a greater degree of warming. parameters, different models can predict a ity, or the amount of climate warming More work is needed to tease out exactly wide range of potential warming. Becker and expected from an increase in greenhouse gas why the models produce the different Wing provide new insights into why global emissions, and found very different results for warming-dependent changes in cloud cover warming predictions can vary so widely. the 31 models included in RCEMIP. The results and convection seen in the study, the The new findings stem from the Radiative- revealed that more than 70%-80% of the vari- researchers suggest. But they note that these Convective Equilibrium Model Intercompar- ation in climate sensitivity across models can findings could help researchers use radiative- ison Project (RCEMIP). RCEMIP aims to enable be explained by differences in how the models convective equilibrium and other mathemat- comparisons among different climate and simulate the influence of rising temperatures ical tools to reduce uncertainties in predic- weather models by configuring them accord- on shallow cloud cover and on how convec- tions of emissions-driven warming. ( Journal ing to a simplified yet fairly accurate repre- tion—which involves warm, rising air that of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems ( JAMES), sentation of tropical weather patterns. This forms thunderstorms—clumps clouds https://doi.org/10.1029/2020MS002165, mathematical simplification treats the trop- together. 2020) —Sarah Stanley, Science Writer

A New Approach to Characterizing Space Plasmas

n studying the behavior of plasmas, large collections of electrons and moments yield thermal and kinetic energy densities, which describe ions, physicists often consider a plasma’s kinetic distribution, which the single-fluid temperature and bulk kinetic energy associated with Idepends on both the positions and the velocities of the particles. the flow velocity. Kinetic distributions are already averaged over time intervals and over The satellites in NASA’s Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission have tiny regions of phase space, and further averaging yields a coarse- recently measured kinetic particle distributions over time intervals grained “single- fluid” description of the plasma, achieved by taking much faster than in earlier missions. These high-resolution distribu- velocity moments of the entire kinetic distribution. tions frequently show more than one distinct velocity peak, or beam, Zero- and first-order moments yield the plasma’s fluid density and present at the same time in the same spatial region. particle flux and hence the single-fluid flow velocity. Second-order Taking single-fluid moments of such multibeam distributions can yield counterintuitive results. Imagine, for example, two equal beams of particles moving in opposite directions with all particles moving at the same speed. Because their velocities cancel out when averaged, single-fluid moments can appear to contain all thermal energy and no bulk kinetic energy. Goldman et al. addressed such misinterpretations by developing methods for taking a new kind of multibeam velocity moment of a measured distribution, in which multiple beams are identified and their single-fluid thermal moments are added together. This approach enables better understanding of how much of the system’s overall fluid energy density is kinetic (i.e., associated with the beam flow velocities) and how much is thermal (i.e., associated with velocity fluctuations about the beam flow velocities). Using the new approach yields the more intuitive result that the multibeam system has all kinetic energy and no thermal energy. The authors suggest that a multibeam approach offers clear advantages when interpreting energy transport in complex plasmas, although they note that the approach is based on assumptions, such as the number of beams into which a given distribution should be decomposed. This artist’s conception illustrates the motion of charged particles in Earth’s magneto- Nevertheless, the study reinforces the need for care when interpreting sphere. The complexities of these motions can be treated more simply by using complicated particle distributions. ( Journal of Geophysical Research: Space approximations in which particle distributions are decomposed into multiple indepen- Physics, https://doi .org/ 10.1029/ 2020JA028340, 2020) —Morgan Rehnberg, dent beams. Credit: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center’s Conceptual Image Lab Science Writer

44 Eos // MARCH 2021 POSITIONS AVAILABLE

Atmospheric Sciences is responsible to the AGS Division model biases at the air- sea/ice inter- Director for the overall planning, face by improving subgrid physics in The Career Center Geospace Section Head management and commitment of the ocean, sea ice and atmosphere (findajob.agu.org) The Section Head serves as a mem- budgeted funds for the Section, which components of existing coarse (1/4° to ber of the Division leadership team includes programs in Atmospheric 1°) resolution IPCC-class climate is AGU’s main resource and as the Directorate’s principal Chemistry, Climate and Large-scale models, and their coupling, using for recruitment spokesperson in the area of geospace Dynamics, Physical and Dynamic machine learning. The research at science research. The incumbent is Meteorology, and Paleoclimate. The Princeton University/GFDL will focus advertising. responsible to the AGS Division Direc- incumbent also serves as the Divi- on the ocean and sea-ice components tor for the overall planning, manage- sion’s primary source of guidance with four distinct areas of research: ment and commitment of budgeted concerning research priorities and 1) Development of machine- learned AGU offers online and funds for the Section, which includes program development in atmo- ocean model parameterizations programs in Aeronomy, Magneto- spheric sciences. trained on data from an ocean data- printed recruitment spheric Physics, Space Weather, Solar The incumbent is responsible for assimilation system; 2) Development advertising in Eos to Terrestrial, and Geospace Facilities. the day-to-day operations of the of machine- learned sea- ice para The incumbent also serves as the Section, including developing and meterizations trained on data from reinforce your online Division’s primary source of guidance executing management plans for a sea- ice data- assimilation system; job visibility and your concerning research priorities and assigned projects and evaluating and 3) Development of machine- learned program development in geospace ensuring the effective us of Section ocean model parameterizations brand. Visit employers. sciences. staff and resources in achieving orga- trained on process- study data, The incumbent is responsible for nizational goals. S/he also develops including large eddy simulations; agu.org for more the day-to-day operations of the and maintains effective liaison with 4) Implementation of existing information. Section, including developing and officials in the scientific community, machine- learned parameterizations executing management plans for other Federal, state, and local gov- in the ocean model and development assigned projects and evaluating and ernments, and the private sector to and implementation of machine- ensuring the effective us of Section represent Foundation and Division learning algorithms in both the ocean Eos is published monthly. staff and resources in achieving orga- activities and interests and rep- and sea-ice components of the GFDL nizational goals. S/he also develops resents the Division on committees, climate model. The prognostic Deadlines for ads in each issue and maintains effective liaison with boards, and panels in areas of exper- parameterizations will be state- are published at sites . agu.org/ officials in the scientific community, tise. dependent and trained to minimize media-kits/eos-advertising- other Federal, state, and local gov- Application submission: aisern@ model-observation misfits with the ernments, and the private sector to nsf.gov deadlines/. aim of reducing inherent biases in represent Foundation and Division free- running climate simulations. activities and interests and rep- Postdoctoral Positions: Using The research will require analysis and Eos accepts employment and resents the Division on committees, machine learning for bias reduction interpretation of model output, the open position advertisements boards, and panels in areas of exper- in climate models management of large datasets and from governments, individuals, tise. The Atmospheric and Oceanic Sci- the application of neural nets or other organizations, and academic Application submission: aisern@ ences Program at Princeton Univer- machine learning techniques to those institutions. We reserve the right nsf.gov sity, in association with NOAA’s Geo- data. The postdocs will be expected to to accept or reject ads at our physical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory collaborate with each other and with discretion. Atmosphere Section Head (GFDL), seeks four postdoctoral other members of the M2LInES proj- The Section Head serves as a scientists to conduct research on ect. Eos is not responsible for member of the Division leadership improving climate models. The work In addition to a quantitative back- team and as the Directorate’s princi- is part of a larger project, M2LInES, ground, the selected candidates will typographical errors. pal spokesperson in the area of lower covering eleven institutions. The ideally have one or more of the fol- atmosphere research. The incumbent overall goal is to reduce climate lowing attributes: a) a strong back- PLACE YOUR AD HERE Visit agu.org/advertise to learn more about employment advertising with AGU.

SCIENCE NEWS BY AGU // Eos.org 45 POSITIONS AVAILABLE POSITIONS AVAILABLE

ground in physical oceanography, contact Dr. Brandon Reichl (brandon dents. EEAS offers unique interdisci- participate in undergraduate instruc- sea-ice science, data-assimilation, .reichl@noaa.gov), and for project 4 plinary study programs encompassing tion and develop courses in their area computer science, or a closely related or general queries contact, Dr. Alistair Geosciences, Meteorology, Hydrology, of study. The candidate should field, b) experience with ocean, sea- Adcroft (aadcroft@princeton.edu). and Environmental Chemistry. EEAS demonstrate the potential to contrib- ice, climate models, or ocean/ice This position is subject to Prince- offers undergraduate and graduate ute across disciplines and promote data- assimilation systems, and ton University’s background check degrees in Environmental Sciences, the continued interdisciplinary c) experience, or demonstrated inter- policy. with concentrations in Environmental growth of the academic and research est, in machine learning. Princeton University is an equal Studies, Geosciences, and Atmo- programs within the SOSE. Candidates must have a Ph.D. and opportunity/affirmative action spheric Sciences. Graduate School Additional Information: The SOSE preferably in Oceanography, or a employer and all qualified applicants admission policies are found under includes two academic divisions, closely related field. The initial will receive consideration for employ- https://www .uml . edu/grad/. Marine Science and Coastal Sciences. appointment is for one year with the ment without regard to age, race, Several R&D centers, including the possibility of a second-year renewal color, religion, sex, sexual orienta- Job Summary: The Division of Hydrographic Science Research Cen- subject to satisfactory performance tion, gender identity or expression, Marine Science in the School of ter, the Marine Research Center, and and available funding. national origin, disability status, pro- Ocean Science and Engineering the Thad Cochran Marine Aquacul- Complete applications, including tected veteran status, or any other (SOSE) at The University of South- ture Center, have research personnel a cover letter, CV, publication list, characteristic protected by law. ern Mississippi invites qualified that work closely with faculty in the research statement (no more than applicants for a full-time, 9-month, academic divisions and research 2 pages incl. references), and 3 letters The Department of Environmental, tenure-track faculty position in infrastructure that is available to of recommendation should be sub- Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences Ocean Engineering at the assistant support student training. The Divi- mitted by February 28, 2021, 11:59 pm (EEAS) at the University of Massa- or associate professor level to begin sion of Marine Science is based at the EST for full consideration. Princeton chusetts Lowell (www.uml.edu/ in Fall 2021. Rank and salary will be NASA’s John C. Stennis Space Center. is interested in candidates who, sciences/eeas) offers several grad- commensurate with experience. Stennis Space Center is a “federal” through their research, will contrib- uate research and teaching Primary Job Duties and Responsi- city that boasts the world’s largest ute to the diversity and excellence of assistantships for motivated stu- bilities: The successful candidate will concentration of oceanographers and the academic community. dents for the Fall 2021 semester. have the opportunity to contribute to hydrographers. Marine Science fac- Applicants should apply online Several positions are currently open. the continued development of the ulty benefit from close working rela- to https://www.princeton.edu/acad Information about the positions can undergraduate Ocean Engineering tionships with a number of on-site -positions/position/19081. For be found on our webpage. program, which started in 2017, and federal agencies, including the Naval additional information about The University of Massachusetts lead its ABET accreditation. More- Research Laboratory- Stennis Space project 1 contact Dr. Feiyu Lu (feiyu Lowell (also known as UMass Lowell) over, the candidate is expected to Center, the Naval Oceanographic .lu@princeton . edu) for project 2 con- is an urban public research university develop a strong, externally funded Office, the Naval Meteorology and tact Dr. Mitch Bushuk (mitchell in Lowell, Massachusetts, with nearly research program, publish peer- Oceanography Command, the USGS, .bushuk@noaa.gov), for project 3 1,150 faculty members and 18,058 stu- reviewed literature, mentor students, and NOAA including its National Data

46 Eos // MARCH 2021 POSITIONS AVAILABLE

Buoy Center and the National Centers For questions regarding this posi- for Environmental Information. tion, please contact the chair of Marine Science graduate and the search committee, Dr. Maarten undergraduate programs extend Buijsman, by email: maarten across traditional marine science .buijsman@usm.edu emphasis areas in biological, physical, chemical, and geological ocean- Postdoctoral Researcher ography, as well as hydrographic sci- Research will use expertise in ence and undergraduate ocean numerical modeling and machine engineering. Marine Science faculty learning related to air quality and and graduate programs are based out atmospheric chemistry at regional to of Stennis Space Center, where the urban scales. Researcher will also M.S. and Ph.D. degrees in Marine Sci- work with CMAQ or comparable mod- ence and the M.S. degree in Hydro- eling systems. The researcher will graphic Science are delivered. The contribute to the operation, enhance- Marine Science and Ocean Engineer- ment of the WSU AIRPACT air quality ing B.S. degree programs are deliv- forecast system, and development of ered at the USM Gulf Coast Campus in new machine learning models for air Long Beach, MS as well as at USM’s quality forecasting. main campus in Hattiesburg, MS. The Application submission: https:// Long Beach campus is near the Port www.wsujobs.com/ of Gulfport, which is the home port for USM’s R/V Point Sur. The Port of The Department of Earth and Plan- Gulfport also features the Marine etary Sciences at Washington Uni- Research Center, which has a state- versity in Saint Louis seeks a moti- of-the-art fabrication lab, testing vated postdoctoral research tank, and laboratory space. Gulfport associate to manage a unique data will be the future site of the Roger F. visualization program within the Wicker Center for Ocean Enterprise Fossett Laboratory for Virtual Plan- and the home port of a new 199- ft etary Exploration. The Fossett Lab UNOLS Regional Class Research Ves- is a leader in the development of sel (R/V Gilbert R. Mason). applications and outreach experiences Minimum Qualifications: Appli- that leverage Augmented Reality (AR) cants must hold a Ph.D. in engineer- technology for education and research ing or a related field and have demon- in Earth, planetary, and space science. strated research experience related to The successful candidate will collab- the ocean. The successful candidate orate with the Fossett Lab Director to will be required to pass a NASA back- build and maintain AR experiences ground security check to work at that serve the needs of Washington Stennis, and a USM employment University instructors and scholars, background check. and coordinate educational and out- Preferred Qualifications: Prefer- reach activities with students, faculty, ence will be given to candidates with administrators, and alumni. experience in developing academic The candidate selected for this programs and curriculums. The pre- position will also conduct research ferred candidate has participated in as an associate of the McDonnell an ABET accreditation process. The Center for the Space Sciences (MCSS), candidate should have post-doctoral and will contribute to this vibrant research experience, a demonstrated research community studying plane- record of scholarship, service, grant tary materials, surfaces, and pro- development, communication, and cesses. In their application materials, commitment to diversity, and has the candidate should describe their experience in managing a research research interests and list potential group. The successful candidate collaborators from among the faculty should have a national or interna- fellows of the MCSS. tional reputation for excellence in Candidates must have a PhD in their discipline. Earth, planetary, or space science, Special Instructions to Applicants: a record of excellent scholarship, and Applications must be submitted demonstrated interest in science through the jobs.usm.edu candidate communication, data visualization, portal (https://usm.csod.com/ats/ and programming for AR/VR envi- careersite/JobDetails.aspx?id=1742). ronments. For full consideration, submit 1) letter The initial appointment will be of interest, 2) curriculum vitae, for one year and is renewable for 3) statement of research interests and a second year. Salary is highly com- plans, 4) statement of teaching petitive and research and travel fund- accomplishments, plans and philos- ing will be available. Washington ophy, 5) names and contact informa- University is an equal opportunity tion of three references. All attach- and affirmative action employer. ments must be uploaded at the time To apply, please contact Professor of submission. Review of applications Phil Skemer (pskemer@wustl.edu), begins 15 March 2021 and continues Fossett Lab Director, with a state- until the position is filled, with an ment of interest, CV, and contact anticipated start date of August 2021. information for three references.

SCIENCE NEWS BY AGU // Eos.org 47 Eos // MARCH 2021 48 POSTCARDS FROM THE FIELD

Dear Everyone:

Maritime archaeologist Wayne Lusardi of the Thunder Bay National camera before scientific operations commence. Could similarly bizarre Marine Sanctuary in Michigan is gliding over an otherworldly “lakes- microbial mats be awaiting us in the waters of the extraterrestrial lakes cape” at the bottom of the Middle Island Sinkhole in Lake Huron. of Titan or the oceans of Europa?

Here, under cold temperatures (~9°C water) and dim sunlight (only ~5% —Phil Hartmeyer and Stephanie Gandulla, Thunder Bay National of surface illumination reaches the bottom of the sinkhole, at ~25- Marine Sanctuary, Office of National Marine Sanctuaries, NOAA, Alpena, meter depth), a dynamic mosaic of cyanobacterial (purple) and chemo- Mich.; and Ian Stone, Tony Weinke, and Bopi Biddanda, Robert B. synthetic (white) mats flourish in groundwater containing high sulfur Annis Water Resources Institute, Grand Valley State University, Mus- and low oxygen. Extreme ecosystems such as these not only contribute kegon, Mich. to Earth’s biodiversity but also may add—in ways yet unknown—to the biosphere’s overall physiological potential.

Hovering over this impressionistic underwater living canvas, Wayne is View more postcards at bit.ly/Eos-postcard getting an undisturbed overview of the waterscape below with a GoPro