INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT

DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEPARTMENT

Public Disclosure Authorized URBAN AND REGIONAL ECONOMICS DIVISION

URBAN AND REGIONAL PAPER NO.74-1 Public Disclosure Authorized

THE DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONAL CENTERS -

JOHN C. ENGLISH

February 1974 Public Disclosure Authorized

This paper is prepared as Annex II to the Urban Sector Survey Report - Repul-lic of Zambia Report No.490-ZA Confidential Public Disclosure Authorized Table of Contents

THE DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONAL CENTERS

A. Regional Growth and Urban Development 1. Introduction 2. Structure of the Economy 3. Spatial Consequences 4. Public Investment in First and Second Plans 5. Decentralization of Manufacturing 6. Potential Impact on Distribution of Urban Growth

B. Chipata and Eastern Province

1. Existing Characteristics of Chipata 2. Developments in Eastern Province 3. Future Growth in Chipata 4. Other Urban Centers in the Province

Table 1 - Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Economic Activity at Current Purchasers Values (K million) 2 - Percentage Distribution of Sales by Sections of Purchase - 1969 3 - Distribution of Imports by Origin, Grouped Sectors - 1969 4 - Zambia - Distribution of Imported Inputs by Sector - 1969 5 - Employment by Province and Sector, 1968 6 - Distribution of Manufacturing Establishments among Provinces by Manufacturing Activity 1969 7 - Average Agricultural Crop Production by Province 1969-72 8 - Zambia - Proportion of Population Aged 10-14 Enrolled in Primary School by Province 1972 9 - Zambia. Distribution of Primary School Pupils by Age Group and Province 1972 (Percentage) 10 - Distribution of Capital Expenditure in the FNDP 11 - Zambia - Hospital Beds by Province, 1973 and 1981 12 - Results of the Model (Input-Output Model Without Substitution of Imports) Changes in Output by Sectors 1967-1976 13 - Computed Growth of Total Production by Sectors 1971-1976 14 - Labor Output Ratio, Capital Output Ratio, and Labor Intensity by Sectors 1967 15 - Synopsis of Possible Projects Suggested for Southern Region 16 - Employees in Major Zambian Towne by Main Activity Groups, 1961 17 - Marketings of Major Agricultural Products 1970-71 18 - Eastern Province - Agricultural Marketings 1964-1972 ANNEX II Page 1

THE DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONAL CENTERS

A. Regional Growth and Urban Development

1. Introduction

1. The economic development of Zambia has been based upon the exploita- tion of its mineral ores. As discussed in Annex I, during the colonial period significant numbers of mainly British workers entered the country to run the copper mines and their supporting activities including public administration. The location of the major mineral deposits and the construction of the main railway line south to link with Rhodesian and South African systems resulted in the main concentration of these activities in the central corridor of the country, commonly referred to as the "Line-of-Rail."

2. The economy has diversified in the past 20 years and particular since Independence there has been a considerable increase in manufacturing. However, it still remains dominated by mineral production. Table 1 shows the estimated gross domestic product for 1972 by sector. In that year mining and quarrying was estimated to comprise almost 25 percent of G.D.P. This represented a considerable decline from almost 50 percent in 1969 and resulted from reduced prices for copper and the major accident at Mufulira mine which reduced output sharply.

3. The overwhelming majority of the monetary value of the nation's product is clearly contributed by modern sector activities. Subsistence agri- culture is estimated to amount to six percent of the total, and some proportion of construction and trade are of a subsistence nature, but in total this is not likely to comprise much more than 10 percent of total economic activity. This annex examines first the structure of the Zambian economy with particular reference to the potential for decentralizing modern sector activities. The second section reviews the current position of one of the provincial capitals, Chipata, existing agricultural output in Eastern Province and prospective developments. The consequences of agricultural developments for urban develop- ment are discussed and future housing and infrastructure requirements of Chipata and other small urban centers in the Province assessed.

2. Structure of the Economy

4. Some indication of the structure of the economy can be obtained from examination of the national input-output table. Tables 2 and 3 summarize the major elements of the 1969 Table prepared by the Central Statistical Office. On the sales side the only sector with a major component of export sales is metal mining, in which 94 percent of sales are for export. The only other sectors with more than 10 percent export receipts are rail and other transport, hotels and "other manufactures." Much of the manufacturing sector is oriented towards private consumption, i.e. food industries and textiles, ANNEX II Page 2

with 70 percent or more of sales being for consumption purposes. The oth'er segments of manufactures are more dependent on sales to intermediate sectors. These are fairly widely spread. Sales to mining are significant for chemical and machinery sectors. The only instances in which sales between manufacturing sectors exceed 20 percent of sales (including sales to the same sector) are for Paper, Paper Products, Printing and Publishing, which has significant internal sales, and Basic Metal Manufactures, which provides inputs for the Fabricated Products and Machinery sector.

5. Table 3 snows the distribution of inputs by origin for broad sectors. Excluding private consumption and metal mining all sectors obtained more than twice the proportion of inputs from imports than from the domestic manu- facturing sector. Also in all sectors except agriculture, private services comprised a larger proportion of inputs than domestic manufactured goods. The sectoral origin of.imports is shown in Table 4. In four of the manufacturing sectors over 90 percent of imports were from the same sector, Textiles, Paper, etc., Chemicals and Petroleum Products, and Basic Metal Products. In two other raw materials for components are clearly dominant, Rubber Products and Fabricated Products, Machinery and Equipment. Generally internal intersectoral transactions of these types were rare.

6. Thus the manufacturing sector in 1969 was heavily oriented towards transformation of imported materials or components for direct sale to the final user. At the same time, domestic service inputs were more significant than material inputs. These facts indicate a sector highly oriented towards its markets and its service requirements. The resulting tendency to concen- tration was strengthened in the Zambian case by the fact that markets were dominated by expatriate groups in the cities who demanded a high standard of goods and services. This in turn required that those activities supplying this market required a similar high level of inputs which, on the personnel side, were only available in the cities. This basic situation continuAes. As Zambian industry expands it may to some degree be enhanced since new internal suppliers attempting to become established will wish to maintain close links with their markets. In many cases customer relationships may be a major factor in promoting establishment of the business. In such circumstances there would be a reluctance to locate at a distance from these markets.

3. Spatial Consequences

7. The result of these forces has been a concentration of activity both sectorally and spatially: a limited range of activities are located in a few urban areas. The extent of this concentration, especially in private sector activities is indicated in Table 5, which shows the numbers employed in 1968 by sector and province. In that year 85 percent of private sector employment was located in Central and 'Copperbelt provinces. If the Southern province (the third line-of-rail province) is included, this proportion rises 95 to percent, compared to the three provinces' population share of 52 per- cent in 1969. The heavy concentration of private sector employment in these provinces is consistent throughout all sectors. In manufacturing, the only ANNEX II Page 3

activities reported off the line-of-rail were some small food vnd textile activies (see Table 6). There is some concentration of public sector employ- ment in these three provinces also with 65 percent of the total being located there (63 percent of central government employment and 92 percent of that of the public corporations).

8. The spatial concentration of private sector employment has resulted in a marked contrast in the structure of employment between the line-of-rail and non-line-of-rail provinces. Thus, the private sector accounted for 70 percent of reported wage employment in the line of rail provinces, compared to only 28 percent in Eastern Province and less than 25 percent in the other four provinces. The ratio of the 1968 reported employment to the number of persons per province who reported themselves to be working in the 1969 census, gives a relative indication of the importance of the formal sector in the different provinces. Around 80 percent or more of those engaged in economic activity in the non line-of-rail provinces were in the informal sectors. Figures are not available on the breakdown of this informal sector labour force between sectors - e.g. agriculture, distribution, construction; but it is clear that the majority of these persons are primarily engaged in agri- culture, mainly of a subsistence or semi-subsistence type.

9. Data on aggregate agriculture production is limited to that pro- portion which enters regular marketing channels and in particular to purchases by the Statutory Marketing Agencies. Table 7 shows the average marketings by province for maize, groundnuts and cotton the major cash crops other than tobacco between 1967-72. Clearly marketings other than those in Central, Southern and Eastern Provinces were insignificant for all three crops. Eastern province was only a significant factor in groundnuts, in which it averaged ninety percent of total production. Although provincial data are not available for tobacco production, the major type, Virginia, is produced almost entirely in Central and Southern provinces, while production of Burley (about 5 percent of the total) is concentrated in Eastern Province. Similarly livestock production is concentrated along the line-of-rail although traditionally owned cattle are more evenly distributed.

4. Public Investment in First and Second Plans

10. The Government has made the reduction in the interregional disparities in economic activity, opportunities and income levels an objective of policy since Independence. Progress during the First Plan period was slow and in fact because of the greater capacity to execute and utilize capital in- vestments in the Central and Copperbelt provinces, planned targets for investments in the peripheral provinces were not met (see Table 8). Planned per capital expenditures in the Provinces during the FNDP ranged from K65 to K303, but in the event the actual expenditure disparity was much wider between K39 in Luapula to K477 in Central Province, a 1:12 ratio. The result was that in Central and Copperbelt provinces expenditure was 157 and 138 percent of the planned level, and 96 percent of planned in Southern Province. The cor- responding percentages in the non line-of-rail provinces were between 60 and 73. It is interesting to note that of the investments in the non line-of-rail ANNEX II Page 4

provinces some part may have provided benefits mainly to the line-of-rail. For example, the transport cost savings generated by the and Great North Road will be accrued principally to the modern sector on the line-of-rail; benefits to Eastern and Northern Provinces respectively have been relatively small.

11. The SNDP aimed to improve the relative performance in the non line-of-rail provinces both through increasing their share of investment and strengthening local administration. A full breakdown of the current situation cannot be given but an indication can be made for some sectors of Government activity. In road construction, the main aim of the current program is to provide a paved road link to all provincial capitals. The 1973 program was cut back because of the overall financial situation, but of the funds budgeted for major projects (k3.5 million) 95 percent were for projects in non line-of-rail provinces, or for link roads to them. In the group of projects currently given highest priority - costing an estimated total of K22.5 million - less than 30 percent are for line-of-rail projects.

12. Major efforts have been made to improve the availability of education and health facilities throughout the country. Table 9 indicates the ratio of the number of children in school in the 10-14 age group by province in 1972, to the estimated population in each province. Clearly the proportion enrolled is uniformly high, and there is no clear bias in favor of the line-of-rail provinces. Analyzing the age distribution of those attending primary school in this age group shows no major differences between provinces, indicating no real trend to either higher age for a given standard in the rural provinces, or a greater drop-out rate (see Table 10).

13. The 10 year plan of the Ministry of Health details proposals for the construction of hospitals and medical facilities to 1981. Over this period it is planned to construct an additional 1700 beds in government hospitals and 400 are also scheduled for mission hospitals. Overall this program will approximately keep pace with population falling marginally from 2.58 beds per 1000 to 2.53 (see Table 11). However, since most of these new beds are planned for rural areas and the non line-of-rail provinces, the relative provision in the provinces will be charged dramatically. While there will presumably remain some disparities in availability of specialist services, the completion of this program will be a significant factor in upgrading the quality of life in rural areas.

1h. Th areQfforp liv thamalvei nt# howevaj M111klcy Lu ulgitilieatiLly c:duc rcgional dispariLies in employment and income levels, or therefore to reduce the rate of migration to the major urban areas and the line-of-rail. The major question for this report is whether these objectives could be aided, by means of efforts with a primarily urban focus. Current evidence suggests that no major mineral based developments are likely to occur in the current decade, other than near Solwezi in Northerwestern Province, to the west of the existing Copperbelt where an open pit copper mine will be established. If, therefore, development is to be urban based, activities would have to be ANNEX II Page 5 established, which would themselves generate through backward and forward linkages a demand for local products and induce the establishment of further enterprises to utilize their goods or services. Such development would have to be based upon the initial establishment of manufacturing activities.

5. Decentralization of Manufacturing

15. In a planning study for the Southern Province, 1/ a number of potential manufacturing activities for the province, for the period to 1976 were identified. Using an input-output table based on the tables for 1965- 1967 and an assumed level of copper exports for 1976 an estimate of the final demand for the output of each of the 38 sectors was made (see Table 12). This estimate assumed the maintainance of the 1967 input coefficients for each sector in 1976. A second estimate was made by adjusting final demand for expected changes in consumption patterns resulting from increased incomes, based upon estimated income elasticities. This model gave rise to a substan- tial deficit. A linear programming exercise was carried out, constraining imports to equate exports and imports. This resulted in considerable increases in output in some sectors in the form of import substitution. However, these results should perhaps be treated with some suspicion because of the nature of most of the manufacturing sector in Zambia noted earlier. Since many activities comprise the finishing or fabrication of partly finished imported goods, replication of the existing industrial structure would not in effect substitute imports. Development of new capacity is unlikely in many instances because of the small size of the Zambian market, and would in any event con- stitute virtually a different industry with changed input/output coefficients. This effect is particularly marked in the Transport Equipment sector where the result of the input-output model suggests domestic output of approximately K35 million and imports of K144 million. Under the linear programming model output in the domestic sector rises to K257 million and imports are eliminated. Such a change would be virtually impossible to achieve - i.e. effective elimination of import of many automobile components as well as finished cars is impossible even within a ten year period and if cost considerations were neglected.

16. However, setting aside this problem these estimates do provide a range of possible outputs for the various sectors which are suggestive of future needs and opportunities. Table 13 shows the projected increases in output to 1976 for the four variations. An estimate of the possible increase in employment in the Southern Province by sector and the investment require- ment was obtained frotm estimated shares by sector of the province in the increase in national output, and using labor/gross output and capital/gross output coefficients, (see Table 14). In 1968 the proportion of total national employment in manufacturing which was located in the Southern Province was 9 percent. One objective of the planning exercise was to see if possibilities for increasing this proportion to about 12 percent by 1976 could be identified, i.e. opportunities for promoting the relative shift of

1/ Gesellschaft fur Regionale Strukturentwicklung. Southern Province of Zambia, Prospects of Fegional Development. Bonn 1971. ANNEX II Page 6 manufacturing activity away from and the Copperbelt. The above exercise suggested that perhaps 2,500 - 3,000 jobs could be developed in manufacturing if the structure of the economy remained essentially unchanged, and to 13,000 - 14,000 jobs if in the unlikely eventuality that maximum import substitution occured. The individual sectors identified were investigated further to assess the existing structure of the industry and the scope for additional plants, availability of local raw materials and size of local markets. These have been summarized in Table 15.

17. As of 1970 some of these enterprises were under construction or planned. In total they would employ some 1500 - 200 persons (omitting the sugar estate and mill which is estimated to employ 800 full-time and 800 seasonally). Total manufacturing employment in Southern Province in 1968 was 4,400, out of a national total of 30,000. The SNDP projects industrial employment of 64,000 by 1976. In order to maintain its share of this total, employment in Southern Province would have to rise to 9,400. This would imply an increase in employment by existing or other new enterprises of 3,000 in the eight year period, or eight percent per annum. While this might be achieved, it provides an indication of the scale of the problem of expanding the relative share of the non-line-of-rail provinces in manufacturing.

18. The listing of possible projects in Table 15 illustrates the potential difficulty of building up employment in manufacturing at a distance for the existing core of the economy. Fully 14 of the 23 projects listed are based upon processing of agricultural products, or producing imports for agriculture. However, as has been seen, the extent of agricultural production in the non line-of-rail provinces is minimal, and thus the potential for processing activities is non-existent until such production can be established. It will be noted however, that the larger enterprises are in the non agricul- turally related sectors, with possible employment of 1250 - 1450 persons or some 75 percent of the total. These types of enterprises are principally engaged in assembly of imported components. They also generally will produce consumption goods in relatively large numbers and of a standard type. Thus, production of bicycles is not to individual specification as with many general engineering activities, and it is therefore less necessary to have easy access to individual customers. These types of enterprises are therefore relatively footloose, but clearly would be limited to locations on the main import-export corridors of the country e.g. the Southern Province or on the Tan-Zam rail line when completed. However, it is also clear that the range of industries of this type is relatively limited, to those suggested here with perhaps in addition, some simple household equipment - metal or plastic utensils, and appliances. The locational flexibility of the general engineering/metal products sector is reduced by the need for access to customers and "at the same time, because of the large range of products, it appears difficult to suggest single projects, since many of these items do not justify production in a one product factory." 1/

1/ Ibid. p. 529. ANNEX II Page 7

19. In looking at other sectors, the Southern Province study made no proposals for Paper Products, Printing and Publishing, Rubber Products, chemicals and Petroleum Products, and Machinery. "The reasons for this are partly the size of the Zambian market which - for chemical products and machinery, for instance - sets an escapable limitation for local production, partly the advantage of location of the Copperbelt and Lusaka, regarding transport costs and external economics." 1/

Local Impact of Decentralized Manufacturing

20. The impact of establishing such assembly industries is also likely to be relatively limited. For example, the transport equipment sector only purchased 12 percent of its inputs from other domestic sectors, foundries and metal products 18 percent, electrical quipment 40 percent (mainly from distri- bution). Some of these purchases will certainly be made locally, but much will comprise relatively specialized services e.g. for repair, maintenance and modification of equipment. Studies conducted in the U.K. on enterprises which have moved to small towns as part of sponsored "overspill" programs support this view. 2/ The majority of their subcontracting work comprised a "profusion of small and often irregular jobs, whose significance lies as much in their insuring the continued viability of the firms in the two towns as in the creation of "spin-off" employment." 3/ Firms in these towns purchased less than 10 percent of their materials in the local region and sold a similar proportion of their product. Thus, while in these towns extra industrial activity has been generated, local "spirn'off" effects have been small, and "leakage" from the growth centres in the generation of activity in the service sectors has largely been channelled to the larger centres." 4/ Thus although available data is scanty it is not clear that the presence of Livingstone has had a significant impact - in and of itself - on the development of the Southern Province. The immediate vicinity of the town is not of high agricultural potential and existing development appears limited. It also does not appear that the establishment of an automobile assembly plant has to date stimulated any further activity in the town.

6. Potential Impact on Distribution of Urban Growth

21. A further problem arises with respect to the type of urban devel- opment which would occur. Table 16 shows the distribution of employment by sector for the major urban centers in 1961. Available data suggests that there have been no major changes in the overall balance since that time. Other than Lusaka the towns fall into three groups, (a) Mining/manufacturing

1/ Ibid p. 536. 2/ Moseley J. J. "The Impact of Growth Centres in Rural Regions." Regional Studies, March 1973. 3/ Ibid p. 88. 4/ Ibid p. 93. ANNEX II Page 8

- Copperbelt centers, with 43 percent of employment in these sectors in and over 50 percent in the other towns' (b) - a general commercial center and (c) transportation, construction, mining, manufacturing in and Livingstone with 50 - 60 percent of employment in these basic sectors. Any new manufacturing based center is likely to have an employment composi- tion rather of the type of (a) and (c), i.e. 50 - 60 percent in basic activities, probably nearly 40 percent of which would be in manufacturing. Thus a town of 50,000 with about 12,000 jobs in total would have about 5,000 manufacturing jobs. It might be possible for overall manufacturing employment to almost double in the 1976-85 period, i.e. an increase of about 60,000. Thus development of two such centers would need to capture almost 20 percent of all new manufacturing employment in the country over the period. The population of 100,000 is however only likely to represent about 10 percent of total urban growth over the same period. The overall impact therefore or the population balance of the country would be slight.

B. Chipata and Eastern Province

22. In the absence of any major possibilities for urban development in the non line of rail provinces based on decentralization of industry from the line of rail, expansion of urban centers in these Provinces will be a function of overall regional development. That is, the primary role of urban centers will be as service centers to local population e.g. education, health, administration, and wholesaling/retailing, to local resource based activity e.g. production and distribution of agricultural inputs and as marketing and processing center for local products. The second section of this annex will discuss in more detail the current situation in one regional center, Chipata, the headquarters for Eastern Province, review major current developments in the Province and their potential impact on growth of the town, assess infra- structure needs to 1980 and possible aspects of these which might be suitable for a Bank financed Urban Project.

1. Existing Characteristics of Chipata

23. Chipata is located some 350 miles from Lusaka, on the Great East Road leading from Lusaka to , the capital of . It has a recorded population in 1969 of 13,500 and its current population is estimated at 18,000. However, not all of this increase represents real growth, since the township's boundaries have been extended in the intervening period and it is estimated that about half of the increase in numbers comprises the population of the newly incorporated areas. This means that the overall rate of population growth of the town at the present time is approximately 5% per annum.

24. An outline plan for the town was prepared in 1969, by Doxiadis Associates. This plan has subsequently been revised by the Department of Town and Country Planning because of a number of features which made it unsuitable as a guide to future growth. It outlines future private and public infrastructure needs based on an assumption of 5.5 percent population growth to 1980 and 3.5 percent thereafter. Expected population is 25,000 in 1980 and 40,000 in 2000. ANNEX II Page 9

25. The major function of the town is as the administrative center for the Eastern Province and the government is the major source of employment. It is also the major commercial center fo4 the province. In 1967 it was estimatad that approximately 48% of the 2,500 persons in employment were in service activities, including government administration, education and health, 20% in commerce, transport and communication, and 27% in manufacturing and construction work, principally the latter (this includes public construction employees). There are in excess of 100 commercial establishments in the town, more than half of which appear to be operated by Indians. The town also has a small industrial area which contains a brewery, a clothing factory, dairy, cotton ginnery, Marketing Board depot, slaughter house, Rucom workshop and a couple of transport depots.

Housing

26. Besides being the principal employer, the government is also the major owner of the housing stock. The Township Council owns some 1,718 houses of varying types, all of permanent construction, and, in addition, there are approximately 500 other permanent houses in the town, some of which are owned by the National Government (for Provincial Government Officers, police, health department, etc.) and the remainder mainly by European and Indian busi- nesses. There are also approximately 1,300 dwellings in four major squatter compounds, which were located largely outside the township before its bound- aries were extended. These compounds have continued to expand since the extension. The town has a waiting list for its dwellings which contains about 4,000 names. This is clearly not a realistic list of those requiring houses since the total of these persons plus those already in Council housing or some other type of permanent housing far exceeds the total number of households in the town.

Site and Service Schemes

27. The Township Council has developed two site and services housing schemes, the first for 48 dwellings which was initiatd in 1968 and has now been completed. A further site was developed to the south of the town in 1971, with facilities for 32 houses. At present four dwellings have been completed on this site and in September 1973 some construction activity was taking place on six further houses. Given the long waiting list for housing, the response to the site and services has been extemely disappointing. The major reasons for this appear to have been (1) the need to prescribe standards which require purchase of such materials as window and door frames, etc. This type of material is very expensive in a small town like Chipata especially since they have to be brought from Lusaka. (2) The schemes which have been started are part of the town's program for the First Plan Period. This means that those building houses can qualify only for loans of 72 kwachas. This is well below the sum required in order to finance the pur- chase of necessary materials. At the same time there are very few individuals who have adequate capital to finance construction of their own dwellinrs to this standard. 14or of thone in the exltin ichortemrre apper io be retlird teachers, miners, or local businessmen; in other words, the schemes are catering to middle rather than low income individuals. ANNEX II Page 10

Public Utilities

28. The water supply system was augmented in 1971 when a new scheme drawing water for a reservior on the Lutembwe River about three miles south of the town was put into commission. At the present time consumption is about 800,000 gallons per day, made up of some 100,000 gallons taken from the bore-holes which were part of the earlier supply system, 40,000 gallons from springs adjacent to the town, and the balance from the Lutembwe. All of the supply is chlorinated. The capacity of the existing scheme of Lutembwe is estimated to be 1,000,000 gallons a day, and to be adequate to supply the needs of the town until 1975. These will be increased by the addition of a number of institutions, including two secondari- schools and a farm institute as well as natural growth of the town. The existing scheme could be doubled in size by raising the spillway and piovision has been made for increasing the size of the treatment plant.

29. The town does not have a complete sewage system but is served by a number of small schemes. Part of the town, including the commercial area and the older central areas, is served by a rather old scheme which discharges into a stream below the town. A larger and more recent stabilization pond sytem serves a greater part of the town, including most of the areas o Council owned houses. This sys,-em has become somewhat overloaded and the stabilization ponds are being extended. The rest of the town is served with individual septic tanks or pit latrines, but one or two larger institutions, e.g. teacher training college and hospital, have their own small treatment plants. The town has been granted funds for a new scheme which is intended will connect up most of the elements of these existing schemes. The cost for this recommended scheme amounts to some K2,600,000 and approval has been given for a first stage of K495,000, which will serve the northern part of the town including the new secondary schools.

2. Developments in Eastern Province

Employment

30. The Eastern Provirtce had a total population 1969 of 510,000 of whom almost 150,000 lived in . Table 5 showed the breakdown of employment in the Province as reported in the 1968 Employment Census. Total Employment was 13,320, of whizh 9,520 (72 percent) was in the Public Sector. Of the 3,780 employed in the Private Sector, 31 percent were in agriculture, 30 percent in commerce and 13 percent in manufacturing. The 1969 popu- lation census reported almost i5,000 persons in the province as "working". Thus those ii formal employment make up less than 20 percent of the economi- cally active.

Agricultural Production:

31. While this employment structure is typical of the non line-of-rail provinces, Eastern Province is perhaps in a somewhat better position than the remaining provinces. Table 17 shows the estimated marketed production of the major agricultural products in Zambia for 1971. The province accounted ANNEX II Page 11

for approximately ninety percent of the country's groundnut production and almost the entire burley tobacco crop. Although virginia tobacco, cotton and maize are primarily produced on the line of rail, Eastern Province accounted for the bulk of non line of rail production. The market value of this output was approximately K2 million and 40 percent of this total was estimated to come from Chipata District itself. This amounts to slightly less than 2-1/2 percent of national commercial production. Similarly, while the 500 recorded as employed in manufacturing in 1968 (almost all of whom were undoubtedly located in Chipata District) amounted to only 1.7 percent of the national total, they were more than the combined total for the other four non line of rail provinces.

32. Despite these apparently favorable conditions relative to other rural areas, recent trends do not provide any clear indication of future pat- terns. Paving of the road to Lusaka was completed in 1971. Freight rates on this road are reported to have remained stable or declined slightly since 1968. Rates appear to range from around 6.5 ngwee/ton mile (10 cents) for bulk grain to 10 ngwee/ton mile (15 cents) for general cargo. Average daily traffic at Chipata has increased from 141 vehicles in 1966 to 282 in 1970 and an estimated 480 in 1973 with trucks comprising about 30 percent of the total. Despite these trends however, there is no real evidence of the highway having a major impact on the town. No significant activities were reported to the mission as having been stimulated by the highway as such, although a small abattoir and an opaque beer brewery have recently been established. On the other hand commercial property values in the town were reported as having risen rapidly in the past 2-3 years after several years of slow decline following Independence.

Growth of Agricultural Production

33. Developments in agricultural production in the Province have been spotty and no clear trend has emerged. Marketed production of the major crops since 1964 is shown in Table 18. A number of sharp changes in direction have occurred in this period, which appear mainly to have reflected changes in relative returns from the crops. The rapid increase in maize production has resulted from the introduction of hybrid maize in 1968 and an increase in producer prices in 1971. The decline in cotton production appears to stem from the increasing profitability of maize. This was also caused by crop losses due to poor insect control. This is turn appears to have been mainly due to inadequate extension support and inadequate distri- bution of insectisides by EPCKA 1/. The result of this decline is that the ginnery in Chipata is working at only about 20 percent of capacity. Both hybrid mnize and cotton are cash crops. Groundnuts provide both subsistence and cash sale and are produced by a larger number of small growers. The decline in marketings is linked to persistant complaints of poor service by the EPCMA, e.g. delayed payments, local markets running out of bags or fail- ing to open at designated times. Tobacco production and marketing is under the closer control of the Tobacco Board of Zambia.

1/ Eastern Province Cooperative Marketing Association. ANNEX II Page 12

34. These figures of past production do not give any clear indication of trends. Preliminary estimates of maize output for the 1972/73 crop year were in the region of 400,000 bags, a 20% increase over the previous year. However, growing conditions were adverse with only 65 percent of normal rainfall. Use of the hybrid seed is reported to still be increasing and future increases in output may be likely, even if prices are reduced. Excluding tobacco production the value of agricultural marketings in the Province increased from approximately K1.6 million in 1970/71 to K2.3 million in 1971/72 and perhaps to K2.5 million in 1972/73, due entirely to hybrid maize. A survey of rural households in the Kalichero area of Chipata district 1/ indicated average hybrid yields in 1971/9172 of 2576 Kg/acre, compared to 1191 Kg for the local maize.

Intensive Development Zone

35. Chipata District has been selected as one of the three Intensive Development Zones in the country. Preliminary plans for this program envisage a wide raninging program aiming to provide a general lift within a small area. Initially efforts will be concentrated on two areas, each of 800-1,000 house- holds. Within these areas attention will be focussed in the first 2 years on increasing agricultural production and constructing infrastructure, parti- cularly feeder roads. Major production efforts will be on improving input supply and marketing through development and improvement of service centers, upgrading extension staff and supervised credit; tsetse control, upgrading livestock and introduction of concentrate feeds. In the period through 1976 the program will cover less than 10 percent of the rural households in Chipata district. While techniques learned and facilities developed in this period can be expanded more rapidly thereafter, impact on local production and marketings as a whole will be small in this initial period.

Integrated Family Farming Project

36. This project, supported by the Bank.2/, is under the direction of the Tobacco Board of Zambia. It will establish 8,260 farmers on holdings of 11.5 ha, of arable land plus a woodlot. It is proposed that they will crop 1 ha with tobacco and 1 ha of maize with the remainder for woodlot. It is anticipated that the production of such a holding could have a value of K815 by the fifth year. With expenditure on production requirements of K470 farm income would be K345.

The project proposes that 4,000 of these farmers be located on schemes in Eastern Province, 2000 in Southern Province, 400 in Western Province and the location of 4360 will be decided later. Half of those in the Eastern Province will be on schemes in District to the north of Chipata. The remainder will be divided between Katete (west of Chipata) and Zimba/Vubwe in Chadiza District (SSE of Chipata). In 1980/81 it is anticipated that the

1/ R. H. Harvey "Some Determinants of the Agricultural Productivity of Rural Households" Chipata 1973.

2/ IBRD. PA.151a - Zambia Integrated Family Farming Project. January 1973. ANNEX II Page 13

output from the whole project will be 7.24 million Kg of tobacco and 400,000 bags of maize. Of these approximately half, with a market value of approxi- mately K3.5 million will be produced in the Eastern Province.

Future Production Trends and Impact on Chipata

37. There are a number of elements of uncertainty about future trends in agricultural production and incomes outside this scheme and the impact of these on the growth of Chipata. It was noted in para 33 that marketed pro- duction in Eastern Province in 1971/72 was about K2.3 million of which about 40 percent was from Chipata District itself. The total agricultural produc- tion of the Province and district are not known, but if the proportion of subsistence production in these areas is proportionate to their share of the national population outside urban areas it would have amounted to about K3.5 million and K11.5 million respectively. This implies that for the district approximately 20 percent of production was marketed through official channels, and 15 percent for the Province as a whole. A study of a sample of rural households in part of Chipata District 1/ indicated that 71 percent of agri- cultural production was consumed by the households and 29 percent sold. Given that some of these sales, e.g. local vegetables, eggs, etc., will not be recorded in official marketings, the two figures are comparable.

38. The Kalichero study indicated that almost all the marketed propor- tion of production came from about 15 percent of the households. Overall subsistence production is about K100 per household and sales of the 15 per- cent average K125-K150 per household. These 15 percent appear to be some- what constrained by labor availability from increasing production, although the increased cash flow generated by higher maize production may enable them to hire labor for this crop. Because of the need for adequate fertilizer for hybrid maize, extension of the crop more widely to semi-subsistence producers will probably be limited by lack of capital. Thus the rate of growth of output may slow in the immediate future, a process which would be encouraged by the reduction in the relative price of maize, following the surplus which developed in the country in 1972. Currently maize marketed in Eastern Province is shelled locally then shipped to the line of rail. Increases in output therefore generate little additional local activity. On the other hand increased incomes of the more commercial producers may en- courage them to build up livestock herds.

39. Official figures indicate an increase in local pig slaughterings in the past two years, while cattle slaughter has been stable. Increased activity, particularly in pigs and poultry would increase the demand for maize and cottonseed for feed purposes. In fact local production of mixed feeds might be encouraged while there is potentially an overall.maize sur- plus, by selling to local millers (of which there are none now) at a price. below the purchase level, or by Namboard 2/ milling itself. Currently purchase

1/ 2. cit.

2/ National Agricultural Marketing Board. ANNEX II Page 14

prices are K4.00 per bag throughout the country while Namboard pays about K2.00 per bag for transport to the line of rail from Chipata. There is thus ample scope for selling at a reduced price e.g. K3.00 per bag for milling and mixing purposes. Effectively priced contracts e.g. for pig and poultry meat for public institutions could induce major increases in local output and lead to butchering and packing activity in the town of Chipata. Similarly most of the semi-commercial growers utilized tractor ploughing. They may be expected to extend this to other field operations, e.g. inter-row cultivations if labor is a constraint. An increase in quantity and range of tractor use would increase the demand for back-up services, which in major part would probably be located in Chipata.

40. Developments of this sort, while increasing the demand for a range of activities which would develop in Chipata and other towns would however primarily initially benefit directly the 10-20 percent of rural families who have the ability and resources to respond. Those currently at a subsistence level would benefit indirectly through increased opportunities for wage employment (which appears to be widely preferred) and increased demand for their non-agricultural products e.g. household utensils and wood products. The middle forty percent of cultivators are the major source of groundnut sales. Increased focus on production and marketing of this crop would clearly benefit them and credit assistance would enable some to begin production of hybrid maize. However, cultivators generally surveyed in the Kalichero study indicated that labor in particular was a constraint on increased production. Because of the relatively short cropping season, November to April, and the high labor requirements of groundnuts and cotton in particular, some degree of tractor or ox powered mechanization is necessary. Almost all cultivators however lack capital necessary for this purpose. Concentration on this middle group would therefore have a slower payoff. and, to the extent it resulted in increases in output of maize and groundnuts, shipped straight out of the district, would not generate as much increased local activity.

41. Current sales of agricultural products in the Province appear to be in the range of K3 to K3.5 million, of which about K2.5 million represent sales through "official." channels. If the family farm project proceeds as planned it's output alone would effectively double the value of cash sales in the Province by 1980. In addition an increase may be expected from the rest of the Province; assuming price incentives are not drastically reduced and that the effectiveness of the agricultural supply and marketing sectors are ivproved. As a minimum an increase of 4 to 4.5 percent per annum might be expected (30 percent by 1980). This would imply an average increase in cash sales by rural households of K12 (from K40 to K52). 1/ Since the number of households may rise by about 15 percent the needed increase would be proportionately less.

42. However a balanced program of incentives as suggested above, aimed at broadening the range of agricultural output could easily result in an

1/ Assuming no change in household numbers. ANNEX II Page 15 increase of 50 percent in output over the period. Thus, combining these two components agricultural cash sales in the Province could rise to between K7 and K8.25 million - an overall increase of 100 - 150 percent on present levels.

Tourism

43. The major non-agricultural development in the Province is that based on the Luangwa National Park. Tourist facilities are planned on the south east side of the Park. Sites have been selected for an airport, hotel and three village sites to house employees. Development to date has been slight, but was reported to be the main reason for increased banking business in Chipata. However, additional spin-off in the town is likely to be small, since the park developments are about 75 miles WNW of Chipata and will almost certainly be serviced from Lusaka. 1/ However, if the Park access road were continued through the Luangwa Valley to join the Great North Road near Serenje it would provide access to the new rail line at the point. The road distance from Chipata to rail would be reduced by about 100 miles. Road distance to the Copperbelt would also be reduced. Given the high cost of transport on the products of the Eastern Province this reduction could provide significant savings for the local economy (and for government marketing agencies).

3. Future Growth of Chipata

44. The above discussion and analysis of current developments in the Chipata area suggest that they will increase the demand for services available or potentially available in Chipata. The rate of such increase is extremely difficult to gauge, since the current contribution of agricultural servicing to income in the town is not known. However, if agricultural out- put growth of 10-15 percent per annum in the Province is combined with an increased evolution of decision making and personnel to provincial capitals then growth of the town may be expected to continue at least at its present level of about 5 percent per year. This would mean a population of 25,000 by 1980 and about 40,000 by 1990.

Housing

45. During the period 1973 - 1980 about 1,500 additional dwellings will be required. The SNDP program proposes the construction of 222 houses (200 low cost and 22 medium cost) and also the provision of 500 self-help housing plots. Given the township's previous results with site and service schemes major changes will have to be made, including the use of basic rather than fully serviced pilots. However there currently appears to be no sign of changes being made nor awareness of any plans to achieve such a target.

1/ The access road will branch from the Great East Road about 50 miles west of Chipata. ANNEX II Page 16

Growth and Housing Needs in Chipata

1976 /1 1973 /2 1975 /1 1980 /1 1985 /3 1990 /3

Population 12,000 18,000 19,100 25,000 31,750 40,000 Housing - Permanent 2,000 2,000 2,300 2,700 3,100 3,500 - Self-Built 400 1,300 1,500 2,300 3,200 4,500

/1 Department of Town and Country Planning, Chipata Development Plan 1972. T7 Mission Estimate. /3 Mission Projection.

The existing squatter settlements contain about 1,300 dwellings. Most of these are somewhat congested, with no access to services and obtaining water from nearby streams. The dwellings are almost entirely of pole and dagga construction. In order to allow for substantial rehousing of these areas and cater for population increase about 2,000 self-help plots will be required by 1980. This assumes that an additional 500 dwellings will be constructed by government or private agencies.

Public Utilities

46. Assuming growth of consumption to 50 gals/cap/day by 1980, require- ments at that date will be approximately 1.25 million gallons and 1.6 million by 1985. Increasing storage capacity by raising spillway height, and increas- ing treatment capacity appear likely to be adequate to meet needs, at least through 1982-3. The first phase of the sewage scheme connecting up a number of existing systems, and including a treatment plant below the town, will begin in 1974. This will require about 3 years for completion, at an estimated cost of K600,000. A second phase could include additional public institutions and buildings currently operating septic tank facilities, and extend to the new housing/site and service area to the south of the town. This could be constructed during 1977-80 and form part of an urban development project for the town.

Education

47. The town and its immpndite viclnity hnn at prenot 7 primnry Alhool, 9 rwoeandrry ohooln, a rai n Lati ti ute anid L(cl(hri tratulig college. An additional secondary schools is under construction as part of the Bank Educa- tion Prolect and an additional primary schools in the south adjacent to the new site and service scheme. The growth of the town between 1973 and 1980 will increase school age ponulations by approximately 1,400 at the primary level and 700 at the secondary. Phis will create a need for at least 45 pri- mary classrooms and 20 secondary classrooms, without making allowance for increases in current attendance levels. ANNEX II Page 17

4. Other Urban Centers in the Province

49, The Province contains five districts other than Chipata; Chadiza, Katete, , Lundazi and Chama. Other than Chama these all have district centers currently in the 2,000-4,000 population range. Of these, Lundazi, Katete and Chadiza are adjacent to areas being developed under the Integrated Family Farming Project. By 1980 this project alone could generate an output of maize and tobacco valued at about K3 million (or almost as much as the Province's current marketings of agricultural products) and cash incomes approaching K 1,200,000. Given such an impetus it is highly likely that economic activity in the district centers will grow sufficiently rapidly to result in a population expansion of at least 5 percent per annum, or about 1,000 persons, in each center by 1980.

50. The SNDP housing program proposed the construction of 240 houses in the rural districts of Eastern Province with the possibility of site and service plots being developed from the pool of plots earmarked for Rural Councils. A subsequent report 1/ suggested that 90 plots be developed in the S.N.D.P. period. Including those recommended for Chipata the total for the Province is thus 590. The crude population growth estimates made above suggest the probable need for at least 1,000 extra housing units in the main centers of the Province by 1980. Even if the 330 dwellings (public and self- built) included in the S.N.D.P. are built, there will remain a need for at least 650 additional units in 1977-80. Of these probably 500 would be self- built. In addition there will be an increased demand for housing resulting from the tourist developments adjacent to Luangwa Park, which could amount to 500 units by 1980.

51. As of 1973 the Department of Water Affairs operated piped water supply in three centers in the Province, Petauke, Lundazi and Nyimbe, The SNDP program envisages extensions at Nyimba and Lundazi and a new scheme for Chadiza. None of these centers currently has a piped sewerage system with a treatment plant. Expansion of these towns will undoubtedly create a demand for extension of existing water facilities, e.g., a new scheme at Katete and possibly sewage treatment facilities.

Provincial Program

52, Including the township of Chipata, a program might be developed for the Province, comprising some 2,000 site and service plots, principally of a basic type, and extension to water supply and sewerage at Chipata and other centers. In addition increases in primary school facilities will also be required and could be included in a Bank financed project.

1/ Housing Programme Consultants Recommendations, Mineo May 1973. ANNEX II Page 18

53. Currently the Great East Road is the only paved road in the Province. The Intensive Development Zone Program is placing major emphasis on upgrading feeder roads, but this program will only cover a limited part of Chipata District. Development in other districts will create a demand for additional feeder roads and in particular the upgrading of the Chipata- Lundazi and Chipata-Chadiza roads and additional links required to serve the tourist developments and related airport. An urban infrastructure project, as outlined above, could be extended to provide a more general regional im- pact, by the inclusion of such a highway element. ANNEX II Page 19 Table 1

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY KIND OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AT CURRENT PURCHASERS VALUES (K 'MILLION) Percent Kind of Economic Activity 1970 1971 1972 1972

Total Gross Domestic Product 1,185.3 1,106.2 1,217.0 Agriculture, Fore8cry and Fishing: 85.4 100.6 112.5 9.2 Commercial Sector (1) 21.0 29.9 37.5 3.08 Subsistence Sector (1) 64.4 70.7 75.0 6.16

Mining and Quarrying (2): 436.6 268.6 296.0 24.32 Metal mining 431.3 261.1 285.0 23.42 Other mining and quarrying 5.3 7.5 11.0 0.90

Manufacturing: 127.4 143.6 164.5 13.52 Food manufacturing 17.5 20.2 23.6 1.94 Beverages and tobacco 51.6 58.4 67.9 Textiles 5.58 and wearing apparel 10.7 8.9 12.6 1.04 Wood and wood products including furniture 5.0 3.1 3.3 0.27 Paper, paper products, printi.g and publishing 4.5 5.4 6.5 0.53 Rubber products 3.2 5.1 5.4 0.44 Chemicals, chemical, petroleum and plastic products 6.3 7.1 7.6 0.62 Non-metallic mineral products 10.6 9.8 10.6 0.87 Basic metal products 2.5 2.2 2.3 0.19 Fabricated metal products, machinery and equipment 15.2 23.1 24.4 2.00 Other manufacturing industries 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.02

Electricity, Gas and Water 15.5 17.8 38.0 3.12

Construction 82.3 90.5 99.5 8.18

Wholesale and Retail Trade 119.3 118.1 120.0 9.86 Hotels and Restaurants 10.8 12.4 12.5 1.03

Transport and Communications and Storage: 52.0 70.0 Rail Transport 78.5 6.45 Road Transport 8.1 I13 12.8 1.05 (3) 27.2 Other transport and storage 36.8 41.0 3.37 7.8 10.8 12.1 Posts and telecommunication 0.99 8.9 11.1 12.6 1.04 Financial Institutions and Insurance 41.8 45.o 46.0 3.78 Real Estate (34) 37.3 36.3 37.0 3.04 lusiness Services 16.7 17.5 18.0 1.48 Community, Social and Personal Services: 144.7 169,5 Public administration and defence 174.5 14.34 Sanitary and 62.6 71,7 ( related services 4.6 2.0 ( 7r.2 6.10 Education (5) Health 40.4 49.2 53.8 (5) 13.3 4.42 Recreational 21.0 21.5 1.77 and cultural services (6) 4.9 6 0 5.0 .41 Personal and household services 18.9 19.6 20.0 1.64 Import Duties 32.1 36.7 41.8 3.43 lmv~ np,0-1 B-yik Rrl-irl.o rlhnrv- A I :od

* Figures compiled according to the new or revised "System of National Accounts" (1) Sales from the subsistence farmers are transferred to gross output of the Commercial sector. (2) Royalties paid to the Government are treated as indirect taxes. Smelting and refining are included in this sector. (3) Road transport includes oil pipelines and water transport. (4) Real estate includes ownership of dwellings by private households and administrative office buildings are not included depreciation has been imputed for the production accounts of the Government. (5) Education and Health services of mine schools and mine hospitals are estimated at cost. 6) Including religious organizations. I Likely to undergo some revision. Provisional.

Source: C. S. 0. Monthly ailletin of Statistica, June 1973. PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF SALES BY SECTIONS OF PURCHASE - 1969

Farming Gross Private and Forestry Manu- Electri- Fixed Public and city Construc- Private Public Capital Consump- Fishing Mini facturing and Gas tion Services Services Export Formation tion Unspecified Farming, Forestry and Fishing 0.2 2.3 15.2 - - 0.6 5.8 - Metal Mining 71.5 0.7 - 3.4 0.2 0.2 - - - 99.9 3.7 0.1 Other Mining and Quarrying 7.2 2.6 19.6 - 41.5 1.9 - - 24.5 3.4 Slaughtering and Meat Proc. - - - - - 2.9 11.8 2.5 - 77.8 - Dairies - - 0.5 - - 0.3 17.0 2.7 - 75.5 4.3 Grain Hills 1.9 - 20.7 - - 3.0 5.1 0.4 - 65.3 0.1 Bakeries 1.1 - - - 2.8 11.0 1.4 - 78.0 - Other Food Products - 3.9 27.0 - - 16.8 12.8 2.3 - 27.5 1.5 Beverages and Tobacco - - 1.5 - - 2.6 0.6 0.5 - 94.5 0.2 Textiles, Apparel and Leather 3.6 - 0.2 - 0.1 - 1.2 2.1 - 90.3 - Wood and Wood Products 0.8 24.7 13.4 - 14.2 7.9 - 8.5 5.7 23.4 - Paper Products, Printing and Publishing 0.5 7.9 40.5 - 1.0 22.8 11.6 - - 7.9 - Rubber Products 18.1 - 18.2 - - 23.0 - - Chemical Products - 37.5 0.9 15.9 15.4 - 4.6 14.0 4.8 - - 33.7 Bricks and Clay Products 4.6 - - 13.0 - 84.6 0.2 - - Cement and Cement Products - 0.2 - 4.5 - 10.0 0.8 63.0 5.1 - - - Basic Metal Products 10.0 1.7 - 24.0 2.8 37.5 4.0 6.3 - 18.3 0.5 Machinery and Equipment 4.3 - 26.9 19.9 5.0 4.9 24.3 2.6 0.5 10.4 0.5 0.3 Other Manufactures 10.4 - 5.2 - - 59.7 - 13.0 - - - Electricity, Gas and Water 3.1 44.0 5.4 0.1 0.8 18.1 7.5 - - 9.7 Construction 0.3 11.5 17.2 1.8 0.1 7.2 5.2 1.3 - 59.7 - 7.2 Diatribution 1.1 20.9 11.4 0.1 2.6 8.3 2.3 16.1 31.2 4.3 Hotels and Restaurants - 10.8 0.5 - - 7.4 8.7 25.2 - 45.2 2.2 Transport and Storage 0.6 6.3 5.6 0.1 4.1 34.7 4.4 22.0 - 16.7 3.7 Communication - 10.3 13.0 0.5 1.1 47.7 3.6 3.3 - 20.7 - Finance and Insurance 0.2 -40.0 2.5 0.1 3.9 36.6 1.1 4.5 - 5.1 5.9 Real Estate 1.1 0.5 4.6 0.2 3.4 37.7 1.3 Business Services - - 50.6 0.7 - 30.0 18.2 0.6 14.3 16.5 11.5 - Government Administration - 5.5 11.9 - 92.8 7.2 Education - Health 98.1 1.4 - 98.7 Recreation and Non-Business Seices 1.3 - 6.4 70.4 23.2 Personal and Household Services 2.4 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.7 96.1 - Unspecified 3.3 36.2 12.7 0.2 29.7 11.3 4.9 -

Source: C.S.O. National Account6 and Input-Output Table 1969, Lusaka 1972.

t)0 O' VJ( DISTRIBUTION OF IMPORTS BY ORIGIN, GROUPED SECTORS - 1969

Metal Construc- Manu- Service Capital Private Farming Mining tion facturing Sectors Formation Consumption Farming 0.15 0.26 - 5.62 0.26 0.02 12.67 Metal Mining 3.38 - 0.55 - 11.86 - Manufacturing 5.13 2.14 4.16 8.52 8.42 2.03 27.36 Bricks and Cement 0.46 - 7.16 0.58 0.15 - 0.20 Electricity, Gas and Water 1.34 2.05 0.20 0.87 3.25 Construction 0.46 - 0.81 3.07 7.18 1.11 4.69 34.42 - Private Services 3.04 8.14 9.12 11.47 26.12 9.86 25.17 Imports 10.37 3.41 25.28 18.14 16.93 38.86 24.37 Consumption of Fixed Capital 6.14 2.68 7.41 3.07 6.66 - Compensation of Employees 11.28 - 11.35 32.81 16.24 26.70 - Duties and Indirect Taxes - 0.16 26.60 0.44 13.29 0.75 Subsidies 1.45 5.01 5.85 - 0.08 0.43 3.51 Surplus - - 64.86 34.22 5.52 13.97 28.16

Source: C.S.O. National Accounts and Input-Output Table 1969, Lusaka 1972.

(Da (D ZAMBIA - DISTRIBUTION OF IMPORTED INPUTS BY SECTOR - 1969

Sector of Origin Manufacturing Chemicals Machinery Own Food and and Delivered to Ferming Sector Industries Textiles Petroleum Equipment Other Services

Farming, Forestry and Fishing 10.2 7.7 4.0 73.6 2.9 1.6 - Mining 0.3 17.1 - 0.5 32.6 15.2 8.9 20.8 Grain Mills 91.0 - - 9.0 - - - - Other Food Industries - 28.8 N.A. 14.9 41.9 16.8 6.7 - Beverages and Tobacco 4.7 20.7 33.1 - 38.7 - 2.7 - Textiles 0.3 94.2 - N.A. 1.2 "l 3.4 - Wood Products 6.0 7.5 - 44.8 4.5 9.0 26.9 - Paper and Publishing - 91.3 - 0.8 8.3 - - - Rubber Products 23.0 6.1 - - 70.9 - - - Chemicals and Petroleum Products 2.4 94.1 - - - 0.5 2.9 - Basic Metal Products 2.7 94.6 - - - - 2.7 - Machinery and Equipment - 16.5 - 0.2 - - 83.3 - Other Manufactures 57.9 5.3 5.3 - 15.8 15.8 - Electricity - 97.9 - - 2.1 - - - Construction 0.2 - 5.3 43.6 49.4 - Distribution - 21.9 4.8 21.0 52.2 Transport and Storage 4.7 29.6 16.9 35.8 13.0 Communication - 26.9 23.1 3.8 50.0 Government Administration - 0.9 12.2 7.5 79.6 Education - 17.1 83.2 Health - 59.2 5.4 13.4 22.3 Unspecified 0.1 - 9.2 26.1 13.9 10.6 Gross Fixed Capital 0.2 - 89.1 3.8 7.1 Private Consumption 4.3 - 20.8 21.1 7.4 24.1 9.3 11.2

Total 3.5 N.A. 6.5 8.8 11.4 38.0 14.2 15.5

Source. C.S.O. National Accounts and Input-Output Table 1969, Lusaka 1972.

t-j I7PLOYMENT BL-RINYGD!E

Sector Central Copperbelt Eastern

Private Agriculture 8,970 1,690 1,160 Mining & Quarrying 3,500 44,960 50 Manufacturing 9,630 15,240 500 Construction 13,240 21,850 450 Electricity, ater & San. 50 790 Commerce 6,550 l0,2ho 1,130 Transportation, Comm. 2,770 3,50 100 Services .,h8o AJ.. 9 Total 48,190 103,260 3,780 Public Central Government 25,300 12,740 6,900 Public Corporations 5,130 3,020 260 Local Government 63,8420 2,380 Total 34,270 22,380 9,5h0 Total 82,460 125,640 13,320

Total Report "Working " in 1969 Census 173,972 188,909 74,638

Percentage of iormally Employed

Private Sector 58.4 82.2 28.4 Public - Central Government 30.7 10.1 51.8 Public Corporations 6.2 2.4 1.9 Local Government 4.7 5.3 17.9 Formal employment 1968 as a Percentage Total working - 1969 47 67 18

Source: Republic of Zambia: Employment and Earnings 1966-68, central statistical CIffice. AND SEC TR 1268

Luapula Northern Northwestern Southern Western Total

410 480 140 8,620 24 21,650 50 30 60 280 27 68,900 160 140 6 3,940 150 29,760 150 60 270 1,140 210 37,320 - - - - - 830 400 590 220 1,590 450 21,740 90 190 -350 73 6,700 9 15-0 1,210 560 10,760 1,610 1,980 1,206 17,130 1,494 177,660

4,730 7,400 2,910 9,660 5,910 75,550 300 220 73 3,697 130 12,830 350 3 440 .l25 2.620 1 920 23.120 ,380, 4,933 - 15,977 7 9o111,500 6,990 13,040 6,139 33,107 9,454 289,160

51,491 54,874 30,359 111,697 43,858 729,798

23.0 15.? 19.6 51.7 15.8 61.4 67.7 56.7 47.4 29.2 62.5 26.1 4.3 1.7 1.2 11.2 1.4 4.4 5.0 26.4 31.8 7.9 20.3 8.0

14 24 20 30 21 40

I-J DISTRIBUTI0N OF MANUFACTURING ESTABLISHTMENTS AMONG PROVINGES BY MANUFACTUIRING ACTIVITT 1969

PROVINCES N. 3 LINES 5 ILNES % ACTIVITY LUAPULA OF 3 NORTHERN EASTERN SOUTRERfi CENTRAL COPPERBELT WEST WEST OF RAIL OF RAIL PROVS. TOTAL Food beverage and 1 1 1 8 31 40 1 1 79 Tobacco Industries 5 94 84

Textile Industries - - 3 18 . 27 56 - - 101 3 97 104

Ieather - - - - 1 3 - - h - 100 h

Timber based - - - 3 17 17 - - 37 - 100 37 industries

Paper, Pulp and - - - 1 10 23 - - 3h - 100 34 Printing

Chemical Industries - - - - 10 19 - - 29 - 100 29

Petroleum - - - - - i - - 1 - 100 1

Rubber - - - 1 3 9 - - 13 - 100 13 Plastie Industries - - - - 2 4 - 6 - 100 6 China and Glass - - - 1 3 2 - - 6 - 100 6 Building Material - - - 3 16 23 - - 42- 100 42 Iron and Steel - - - 1 1 - - 2 - 100 2 Non-ferrous Metal - - - - I h - 5 - 100 5 Yetal Industries - - - 6 41 108 - - 10 - 100 155 Others - - - - 3 7 - - 10 - 100 10

14 41 166 317 1 1 524 8 98.5 532 Source: SMDP, p.29 OSre:i» H ANNEX II Page 25 Table 7

AVERAGE AGRICULTURAL CROP PRODUCTION BY PROVINCE 1969-1972

Province Maize Groundnuts Seed Cotton (thousand bags) (bags) (thousand/kilos)

Central 2503 2537 ) 9713 Southern 1282 4165 ) Eastern 228 65792 468 Copperbelt 18 ) Luapula 24 ) Northern 66 ) 5 North-western 30 ) Western 24 )

TOTAL 4175 72869 10185

Source: Ministry of Rural Development, Statistical Bulletin, January - March 1973. ANNEX II Page 26 Table 8

ZAMBIA - PROPORTION OF POPULATION AGED 10-14 ENROLLED IN PRIMARY SCHOOL BY PROVINCE 1972

Number Estimated of Pupils Population 1/ Percentage Province Aged 10-14 Aged 10-14 Enrolled

Copperbelt 91,755 113,933 80.53 Central 69,893 93,h82 74.76 Southern 56,56 67,915 83.27 Luapula 35,6h9 44,732 79.69 Northern 56,842 75,008 7.78 Eastern 43,559 67,095 64.92 Northwestern 20,030 27,258 93,48 Western 38,681 49,513 78.12

TOTAL 412,965 538,936 76.62

1/ Mission Estimate

Source: Ministry of Education, Statistical Balletin. ZAMBIA. DISTRIBUTION OF PRIMAIR SCHOOL PUPILS BY AGE GROUP & PROVINCE 1972 (PERCENTAGE)

Age Group Copperbelt Central Southern Luapula Northern Eastern North-western Western Total Under 7 3.10 3.42 2.65 2.10 3.33 h.81 2.70 2.1h 3.12 7 9.85 9.86 10.80 9.72 10.38 11.20 10.94 10.80 10.34 8 1h.02 13.93 1h.8o 14.9o 14.58 14.96 15.00 15.39 14.55 9 1h.89 14.43 15.63 15.45 15.32 14.86 15.40 15.2h 15.10 10 13.12 13.30 13.h3 1h.22 13.03 13.ho 13.83 14.1o 13.43 11 12.oh 11.h3 11.54 11.73 12.03 10.90 10.90 11.42 11.60 12 11.h3 11.00 10.57 11.53 11.20 10.72 10.97 11.25 11.10 13 11.05 9.9 9.30 10.30 9.93 8.74 9.24 9.7h 9.93 14 7.50 7.55 7.10 6.h9 6.69 6.31 7.10 6.83 7.03 Over 14 3.00 5.16 h.20 3.56 3.53 4.10 3.92 3.10 3.82

TOTAL 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00

Source: Computed from Mizistry of Education, Statistical Bultijn. 1 DISTRIBUTION OF CAPITAL EXPEDITdRE IN THE FNDP

Population Planned Actual Percentage 1969 Total per Total per of Actual Province All races K capita K capita Capital (thousands) Million K Million K Planned.

Luapula 346 22.7 66 13.6 39 60

Northern 561 62.6 112 42.2 75 67

Eastern 522 4O.6 78 29.5 57 73

Southern 508 94.5 186 91.4 180 96

Central 727 220.3 303 346.9 477 157

Copperbelt 838 74.3 89 101.1 121 138

North-Western 237 22.0 93 15.2 64 69

Western 421 27.2 65 19.0 45 70

Zambia 4,160 564.2 136 658.9 158 116

Three line of Rail Provinces 2,073 389.1 188 539.4 260 11

Urbanised Provinces 1,565 294.6 188 448.0 286 152

Rural Provinces 2,595 269.6 104 211.9 82 79

Source: Planning Committee Estimates and Development Division of the Ministry of Development Planning and a (D National Guidance. om 4 ANNE UI Page 29 Table 11

ZAMBIA - HOSPITAL BEDS BY PROVINCE, 1973 AND 1981

Hospital beds Beds/100_pop Pop. 1973 J273 Province Total Go Total General (0SO)

Central 2398 1898 2.77 2.19 867 Copperbelt 3457 3297 3.41 3.25 1014 Eastern 1209 1209 2.19 2.19 551 Luapula 631 631 1.13 1.73 364 Northern 671 671 1.13 1.13 592 Northwestern 551 951 3.77 3.77 22 Southern 1536 1506 2.86 2.80 538 Western 1120 1120 2.45 2.45 457

Total 11973 11283 2.58 2.43 4635

Copperbelt (Govt only) 1644 1484 1.62 1.46

(1) 1981 Central 2858 2358 2.38 1.96 1203 Copperbelt 3487 3327 2.38 2.27 1468 Eastern 1338 1338 2.26 2.26 593 Laupula 791 791 2.39 2.39 331 Northern 1067 1067 1.90 1.90 561 Northwestern 1151 1151 4.08 4.08 282 Southern 1793 1763 3.04 2.99 589 Western 1203 1203 2.29 2.29 525 Total 13688 12998 2.46 2.34 5556

Including new Mission beds 14038 13348 2.53 2.40

Source: Estimated from Ministry of Healt'j. 10 Year Development Phin. RESTLTS OF TE MODEL (INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL WITI1OUT STBSTITUTION IMPORTS) OF CANGES IN OUTPUT BY SECm0Rs 1967 - 1976

Output (K'ooo) Chaugen Changen 1967 - 1976 Annual 1967 - 1976 Growth Rate Doesti, Sector 1976 (K'ooo) () Vith With With (4) With with With 19a7 .ontur,# Vacied ¥it. Web. 1967 PaztUrn constant varled Conqt&Lt Varied of Patteen of Pattern. of Pattorn Conrtant Y-t'd of Patt-rin of Pattern of Private Privata Privato ratt-rn of Pttte-n c Private Pr1'7-t& Prir. Priv.ite Coni,ttn Con- ntion Connuawntgn Piv - gCona.t Cur.: ,to ,optiort :ntion Crr, . F~orejt~ry. Jtating 78,111 102,770 90,184 24,659 2o,o73 2. .ý-cl494,858 31.57 25.70 3.1 2.6 . n:222 63a,7i2 638.700 141354 143,842 8,860 8,867 29.07 29.c7 2.9 2.9 6,638 6,645 293.74 299.o5 4,o91 9,o44 11,4t7 4,949 16.6 16.6 7,322 12-.05 1r8.U 9.2 3,572 7,929 9,06 1'.1 6 4,357 6,334 121.98 177.;2 7 r 17,171 34,749 31,95o 9.3 17-0 a ~6,235 .17,578 14,779 102.-37 86.7 8.2 12,359 14,u35 6,204 7,9o, 7. 5,t21 14.444 lot.12 128.77 8.1 16,139 8,823 10,518 156.96 ý.6 5, amufacturesCv,:: 167.12 11.1 12. la. 41,299 82,338 79,291 Trntiecsa.na pparel 41,c39 37,992 99.57 U- ad6,952 , 11,79o 37,665 42,5o2 2o,075 24,712 91.59 8.o 7.5 1 a. r c.,cc.u 7,874 etc.ta 112.84 138.91 8.8 lo.2 16,578 16,344 8,7o4 8,47o llo.54 1o7.57 8.6 c-5 12,244 13,209 5,292 6,257 76.12 90o.o 6.5 7.4 13. e Proluetý' 2,615 1. aran .5,211 4,873 2,596 2,258 99.27 86.35 Ps Product3 16,7L6 32,456 8.o 7.2 3o,4o4 15,74o 13,688 9.:16 1,694 5,561 81.19 7.7 6.9 J_c~2. 5,558 3,867 5,864 228.28 ,.r- etc.s11 lo'573 2o,21o 2o,295 9,637 9,722 91.15 91-95 7.5 7.6 228.1o 14.1 . 14.1 '7 c and : -_cuct2 19,923 32,297 32,183 12,37o 12,26o 62.o9 9,938 2o,237 61-54 5.5 5.5 .Zt t~ uipmer:- 20,090 lo,299 10,152 103.63 4,627 8,367 1o2.15 8.2 8.1 2o. T=-.-port Zquip:nen- 8,116 3,74o 4 3,489 80.83 16,664 34,999 34,734 75.41 6.8 6.4 21. crer "anuraet-ros 18,335 .d,o7o llo.o3 108.44 22. Ccn uction 1,453 3,168 3,188 1,715 8.6 8.5 12o,862 1,755 118.03 119.41 9.1 23. LeMctricit.y and rä 216,875 216,837 96,o13 95,975 9.1 29,309 5o.o44 79.44 79.4o 6.7 6.7 24. D:trih-tion 49,798 2o,655 20,409 70.28 170,610 317,416 69.44 6.1 6.o 25 etc. and Inmance 32o,765 146,836 150,155 86.o6 24,118 38,398 98.o1 7.1 7.3 2 . cal Estate 38,418 14,28 14,3oo 59.21 33,286 61,981 59.29 5.3 5.3 27. Milway :ranort 61,385 2a,695 28,599 86.21 28. ioc.d Trannport 27,7o4 44,618 44,361 16,914 85.92 7.2 7.1 31,458 16,657 61.o5 6o.12 29. Otber Transport 58,561 58,578 27,103 5.4 5-4 12,244 27,120 86.16 86.21 7.2 3o. Ponts and Telecommu:-:ations 2o,716 2o,659 8,472 8,415 . 7.2 6,066 .14,)1 69.19 68.73 6.o 31. Coverment Äministrtion 14,86 8,111 6,o2* 118.13 6.o 32. Educaticc 42,loo 62,041 62,081 19,981 1 9 1 116.81 9,1 9.o 24,283 9, 8 47.46 47.46 33. : 56,918 57,164 32,635 32,881 4.4 4.4 16,898 134.39 135.41 9.9 34. D.siness Servicez 33ö821 33,940 16,923 17,o42 10.0 16,626 100.15 loo.85 8.o 35. Rezz-.ational, tior. 3v,o23 29,931 13,397 13,3-5 8.1 ~ess Services 8,128 15,138 o.58 80.03 6.8 36. ZQtels and nestaurw, 'a 13,715 7,olo 5,587 6.8 8,o48 13,979 ,f6.25 68.74 7.2 6.o 37. tIez Pernonal 31=_. 13,903 5,931 5,855 73.7 11,68o 72.75 6.3 . .zsrciZ*.d 21,697. 16,617 10,017 6.3 19,271 4,937 85.76 42.27 35,141 32,6o9 7.1 4.0 - 15,070 13,330. 82.35 69.21 m T 6.9 6.o 8 1 373,474 2 232,188 2 226,132 059.314 852,658 62.56 62.c8 5.5 5-5 3c: G.R. 2. 1ct'or rovince of Zamnbia, Prospects of Regional Development. p. 200. r) H ANNEX II COMPUTED GFOWTi OF TOTAL PRODICTION BY SECTOrS Tabe 3 1971-1976 (K'OOO)

Input-Output Linear Programm- Model witbout ing Model with Import Import Substitution Domestio Sector PtenoSubstitution Pattern of Private Consumption Constant Varied Constant Varied (1) (2) (3) - (4) 1. Farming, Forestry, Fishing 13,941 11,142 26,676 24,766 2. Metal ilining 84,422 84,41o 9o,746 9o,815 5. Other Hining and Quarrying 1,711 1,715 2,373 2,384 Slaugbtering 4. and Meat Processing 5,221 4,957 3,274 5,olo 5. Daixies 2,837 4,285 6,325 9,o68 6. Grain Mills 11,259 9,322 11,572' 9,596. 7. Bakeries 3,97o 5,175 4,168 5,328 8. Otber Food 5,643 6,895 2o,82o 26,913 9. Beverages, Tobacco Manufactures 26,213 24,105 35,247 35,olo lo. Textiles and Wearing Apparel 12,985 16,303 74,183 83,892 11. Sawmills, Joineries, etc. 5,3o4 3,962 15,293 16,248 Paper Products, 12. Par adubih, Printing and Publishing 5,615 5,451 5,967 5,834 13. Rubber Products 1,658 1,425 1,809 1,567. 14. Chemicals and Petroleum Products lo,oo6 8,596 lo,525 9,o97 15. Bricks a. o. Clay Products 2,688 2,685 6,570 6,584 16. Cement, Cement Products, etc. 6,1o9 6,167 2o,414 2o,557 17. Foundries and Metal Products 7,598 7,526 8,33o 8,275 18. Machinery 6,604 6,5o2 7,687 7,611 19. Electrical Equipment 2,346 2,176 2,672 2,501 2o. Transport Equipment 11,824 11,638 2oo,887 2oo,426 21. Other N-anufactures 1,113 1,128 1,228 1,242 22. Construction 6o,1.53 6o,127 71,490 71,82o 23. Electricity and Water 12,822 12,655 15,388- 15,295 24. Distribution 92,616 94,894 112,771 115,541 25. Banks, etc. and Insurance 8,743 8,755 lo,873 10,903 26. Real Estate 18,1oo 18,o37 24,23o 24,538 27. Railway Transport lo,379 lo,21o 12,799 12,591 28. Road Transport 17,o96 17,107 19,695 19,666 29. Other Transport 5,249 5,211 5,9o5 5,845 3o. Posts and Telecommunications 5,266 5,2o2 6,883 6,872 31. Government Administration 12,049 12,049 12,049 12,O49 32. 2ducation 21,46o 21,64o 21,460 21v630 35. Healtb 10,819 lo,9o1 lo,819 8,169 34. Business Services 8,4o3 8,34o 1o,58o 13,330 35. Recreational,ion-Business Services 49422 3v459 4,634 3P598 36. Hotels and Restaurants 5,693 3,641 4,o64 4,119 37. Oth.er Personal Services 6,317 2,956 6,327 2,963 38. Unspecified 9,971 8,264 13,42o 11,885

Total 532,625 529,oo5 92o,149 931,522

Source: Ibid. p. 232.

.-. .. .. Page 32 !%,U,.?b: Ou tput plkl Qutpt RA .t, m' unheur I t1 by .joora (7 1a.4 T Grn Tatll n4

<.;roIU tp lut tio oc;o) .u b our .. t i 1 a, Vi

... L. ,_..'...... ¿...

1 :r >;, ren try e niörifn 7, 111 36, 45o 51 9 2 Metc.1 .tini.d 494,8gl3 51,548 ]c'4 5.')

3 0,4p- Ntuim nd arryL.ng 2,222. 1 24o 55.8 • 2.4 4 i r 4, o95 1,145 27.9 o.6 5 Da,iroir 3,572 1,44o 4do. .5 0.5 6 Gx-in Nilln 11,171 1,44o 8.4 o-5 I ktr x. 6,135 1,38v 22.5 0.5 .3 YIhr 'pord 5,621 923 16.4 o,5 32,i 9 /a ar lnd c iobrcco MUjaonuatue, 41,299 2748 6,7 o.6 1, TextilcI 4.nd WoarinA Apparl 17,79o 5,550 31.2 0.9

. 2.-qilI.7, J.iircrie, eho. 6,952 2,77, 40,o o. 66,7 12 £rr Products, Printing and Pu b ioblisrhin 7,874 1,464 18.6 1.2 15.5 15 fuf,:n: Proto 2,615 469 17.9 1,3 13.8 .4 e 4un Petriluc'n 1ro(uoto 16,116 1,9o5 11.4 1.3 G,

15 Rricar, a, o. c1ay Produl.ctu * 1,694 1,743 102.9 ,,4 27,3 2 2 1 G pr, lilt otaduc 10,573 , ' 2>..9 o.452.3 1j 2ndioi u nD' Potal 1?:?odurtpe 19,923 3,959 19.9 1.o i9 y9938 1,227 12.3 .a .

19 jt FuI.pient 4,627 863 1(.7 1.- 2.< T.::>port Equt.t 16,664 3,110 10.7 3.o 21 Ot= nu otura 1,453 261 18.o 1.o 22 Ctui 4riuti.ion 12o,062 57,172 47.3 o.2 2 6-5 23 bletriuity cid at,r 29,309 1,757 6.o o.7 P.6 24 . rijbUn 170,610 26,o3o 15.3 o.6 25, 25 etc, rnd Turcio 24,118 3,682 15.3 3.6 2- ir-l 2stnto 21,149 708 3.3 15 2.2

k< iUi.Iwy Trangport 27,7o4 . 7,517 27.1 2.8 2. iad r-nnport . 31,458 9,4.oo 29.9 1.8 16.6 2g ly ?., .Oc):rnsport 12,244 4,371 35.7 2.8 18 50 Pitl vnd Talroc,mmioationi 6,866 1,432 2o.9 1.5 13.9 531 Coarannt Adxtnistration 42,loo 23,398 55.5 o.6 92.5 32 E2uow-i.on 24,203 19,534 76.5 o.6 127.5 33 oalfih 16,698 6,613 39.1 o.6

,/. :ir~ v Sorvices 16,626 3,85 18.6 o.6 njirdio:al nd Ion-biuninou Services 8,128 6,812 83.8 o.6 139.7 -' Pknå iinltau:onto 13,o48 4,804 59.7 1.o .7 i 'j IQ• 1Irwunti "Orvicn ,' 11,680 35,726 3-.5 0.6 5n.

£o 1 1,373,474 335,899 24.5

a) 11,u:rat iur for the Ec-t-I (9. - 2 a nr Le tand on Rep. of Gnnk 000: oinon of Pro an m ,;,. 1 V. r£ly e a o or ILir rficii nw nvuftor , i nýIl :1 - 3 aro tf& cn u :'nnDin, C-.d nluovmont nrnd iarr.in8o, 1966 - 1960, op. 2it., p. 32 r.

bi iployx t cr lu,.)on grov9 output. c) Thi i J 'pecirIu vrginal capital output ratio, f, t. net fixotd ropiM formation ao related to r b jf j-rof-ri tut 1 0) T e ind .d coefficiontr nf !L-ur itr k-ty wat nc t be interp ned to hn additi.0-1.1 Ci,; - au0,o of r.et l9ed capita) foration (bacause the o was one vitiai- -tn av>.ge ltour an ratio 0nea cf o the m9 rina onc). The reootiva vcklues ar u'ch l i1 nli>y, tarreoro iiuio lj i >Lv tlplieä by t factar 2/ vonltd ',u '-i,1 i,r to rvsult in a reai-t: 4r.i:va u iM3 o) T. labitour inten3ity cocifilient dev-iates from the cther onao in being probnbly too lcw, whiob i0 cnt bl 1nc,ud.r6 ne decteoe of copper rricce in Che reInp'otive capiftal ou4pJt ratio. ANNEX II Page 33 Table 15

SYNOPSIS OF POSSIBLE PROJECTS SUGGESTED FOR SOUTHERN REGION

Status Place Product Capacity (1970) Jobs

Livingstone Condensed Milk 15,000 gals/an F.S. 3-4 Yam and Thread ? F.S. 200-300 Tanned hides and 20,000/an F.S. 25-30 skins Plywood ? F.S. ? Bicycles 50,000/an F.S. 185 Radios/T.V.s ? planned 250-300 Bulbs 2-2.5 mill/an F.S. 50 Transformers ? F.S. 120 Cars 5,000 under 285 const.

Choma Grain Mill 150,000 bays/an F.S. 20-30 Products Starch 4,000 tons/an F.S. 55 Glucose 1,600 tons/an F.S. 25 Agricultural ? F.S. 200 lplements Pencils, pens ? F.S. ?

Mazabuka Raw sugar 80,000 tons/an planned 800 permanent Refined sugar ? planned 800 seasonal 50 Yeast ? planned 55 Alcohol 60,000 gals/an F.S. 25 Sweets 1,000 tons/an F.S. 30 Canned Vegetables ? F.S. ?

Monze Preserved Canned 500-800,000 kg/an F.S. ? Meat

Namwala Fish Meat 250 tons/an F.S. ?

Pemba School Unifoxw ? planned 60

Sinazengwe _Canned Fruit ? F.S. ?

F.S. = Feasibility Study 23 1538 2000

Source: Ibid. ____ ．一ーー―------―ーーー→→→→→→→→ー→→→→→→→→→→→→→→→→→ー→一ー→→ーーーー日ーーーーーー園卿国国国■■■■■■国軍 ＿

―・一 ANNEX II Fa g -e3 -F) Table 17

MARKETINGS OF MAJOR AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS 1970-71

Product Unit Chipata Eastern Zambia District Province

Maize (local) produced Bags 180000 453200 n.a. marketed 18000 45000

Maize (hybrid) produced 54000 148ooo marketed 32000 100000

Maize (total) marketed 50000 145000 4443800

Groundnuts Bags 24000 68700 7466o Tc.bacco (burley) lbs 430700 654740 (Virginia) 858000 n.a. 1182120 10600000

Cotton kgs 500000 729235 11918739 Milk Production gals 48029 3317000 Graded Cattle slaughter head 3832 50783 Hogs head(1972) 653 27203

Livestock Census 1972 Traditional Cattle Commercial 38917 179297 Sheep 2161 4604 1489332279876 18615- 40 Goats 14811 64227 Pigs 11087 53118 80812 61025

* breeding stock only

Swrce: (a) Ministr-,- of Fbaral Development Statiatical Bulletin,March 1973. N Research Institute of the Rriedrich-114,bert-Stifting, Intensive Develop*ment Zones as a Stra.te& for the Development of Mr-al Areas in Zambia, Bonn 1973. ANNEK II Page 36 Table 16

EASTERN PROVINCE - AGRICULTURAL MARKETINGS 1964-1972

Product

Harvest Maize Groundnuts Cotton Tobacco Year (Bags) (Bags) ('000 lbs) Virginia Burley - .('000 lbs) ('000 lbs)

1964 95,000 28,250 n.a. n.a. n.a.

1965 80,300 72,830 n.a. n.a. n.a.

1966 150,800 136,080 n.a. n.a. n.a.

1967 89,500 170,840 n.a. n.a. n.a.

1968 117,300 58,960 1,128 980 627 1969 26,100 86,180 2,961 890 528

1970 15,600 32,290 1,718 920 561

1971 152,000 68,720 1,549 1,190 856

1972 334,800 75,980 450 n.a. 847

1/ Zambia - Eastern Province comprises almost 100 percent of production.

Source: Ministry of Rural Development, Statistical Bulletin, January-March 1973.