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Decoding the Outline Development Plan for Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) Deloitte China April 25, 2019 Contents Characteristics of the GBA • Why the GBA？ • Economy, institution and China-specific model of the GBA • Five characteristics of the GBA Decoding the GBA Outline Development Plan • Overview of the GBA Outline Development Plan • Priorities of the GBA Development Plan • Analysis of the four priorities GBA outlook © 2019. For information, contact Deloitte China. 2 Characteristics of the Greater Bay Area © 2017. For information, contact Deloitte China. 3 Why the Greater Bay Area (GBA)? To explore synergistic development model for city clusters New and old economy coexist with a sound industrial foundation High degree of market openness and internationalization © 2019. For information, contact Deloitte China. 4 GDP growth of GBA exceeds overall economy Total GDP of GBA (RMB billion) & YoY growth in 2018 3,000 12.0 Total GDP 2,500 10.0 of GBA in 2018 2,000 8.0 National RMB 1,500 6.0 6.6% 11 2,422 2,342 2,286 trillion 1,000 4.0 500 994 2.0 828 544 410 363 291 290 220 GBA GDP YoY: 7% 0 0.0 Shenzhen深圳 Hong香港 Kong Guangzhou广州 Foshan佛山 Dongguan东莞 澳门Macao Huizhou惠州 Zhongshan中山 珠海Zhuhai Jiangmen江门 Zhaoqing肇庆 2018 GDP (RMB(十亿人民币 billion)) 2018 GDP: YoY (%,右 right)) • Total GDP of GBA reached RMB11 trillion in 2018 , growing by 7% YoY, slightly higher than national GDP growth (6.6%). • GBA accounted for 13% of total economy, with less than 5% of total population nationwide. • Shenzhen’s GDP in 2018 was RMB2.42 trillion, surpassing Hong Kong as No.1 in GBA for the first time. • YoY growth of Shenzhen and Guangzhou were 7.6% and 6.2% respectively, higher than Hong Kong’s 3%. Source: Talking Data, Deloitte Research © 2019. For information, contact Deloitte China. 5 Institutional diversity creates room for institutional innovation 1. The first world-class bay area across two systems GBA has international financial center and shipping center developed under highly market-oriented environment, as well as world manufacturing center and leading technology innovation hub nurtured during economic transition. 2. Leveraging institutional complexity as unique strength, GBA anchors in different city clusters with multiple positioning Total area Total GDP GDP industry Bay area Bay (10k (10k) residents Permanent trillion) (USD capita per GDP growth TEU) (10k throughput container Port service of Share industry Pillar Tokyo Bay Area - Industrial (USD km 10k bay area 2 ) ) Manufacturing New York Bay Area – Tokyo 3.67 4,383 1.86 4.24 3.6% 766 82.3% (auto, Financial bay area Bay Area petrochemical) Financial services, New York San Francisco Bay Area – 3.45 2,370 1.83 7.72 3.5% 465 89.4% real estate, Bay Area Technology bay area healthcare San Tech innovation, GBA: Francisco 1.74 768 0.82 10.53 2.7% 227 82.8% professional Dongguan manufacturing Bay Area services base, Hong Kong Tech innovation, financial center, GBA 5.65 6,765 1.38 2.04 7.9% 6,520 62.2% financial services, manufacturing Shenzhen technology innovation center Source: people.cn, China Index Academy, Deloitte Research © 2019. For information, contact Deloitte China. 6 Amble room exists for contribution of city clusters to economic growth Contribution of city clusters to GDP (% of national GDP) 72% 20% 20% 9% 10% 9% 6% Source: statistic bureaus of local governments, Guotai Junan, Deloitte Research © 2019. For information, contact Deloitte China. 7 China-specific bay area model: top-down and multi-lateral negotiation 1. State-level strategic planning with policy dividends SARs: Hong Kong, Macao Belt and Road Initiative SEZs: Shenzhen, Zhuhai Guangdong FTZ: Nansha, Qianhai & Made in China 2025 Shekou, Hengqin areas Coordinated development of regional Overlap of policies for free ports, SARs, economy SEZs and FTZ pilot areas, offering Deepening opening up enormous room for trade and industry cooperation 2. Central government and governments of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao need to negotiate to move forward “One country, two systems, three customs zones” requires multilateral negotiation to develop policies for GBA. Compared with other city clusters in China, resource allocation and regional development is more balanced in GBA, whose cities are more closely connected (relative to Bohai Economic Rim) and more internationalized (relative to Hangzhou Bay Area). Future policy negotiations will focus on supporting regional investment & financing exchanges, decentralization and tax reform (in favor of R&D investment and SMEs) to enhance GBA’s overall business environment. © 2019. For information, contact Deloitte China. 8 Five characteristics of GBA Leverage its complementary institutional diversity of “one country, two Institutional systems, three customs zones” to pursue institutional innovation, and diversity enhance cooperation in talent attraction, capital flow, trade clearance and foreign investment; avoid fragmentation and duplication. Manufacturing- Most GBA cities, except Shenzhen and Hong Kong, are still transforming from manufacturing towards high-end manufacturing and services. Manufacturing heavy industrial makes up a large portion of GBA’s economy, thus the focus should be structure increasing the share of services industry and enhancing GBA’s effects and impact as a whole. Room for Intermodal transport to improve freight turnover and reduce transportation cost. infrastructure There’s room for intercity rail transportation to grow in terms of precision, and development inherent silos in particular need to be broken for coordinated information management. Division of work Differentiation of dominant industries in many GBA cities is less apparent, and core positioning of these cities needs to be further refined and clarified, among cities to including differentiation of port functions, which requires division of work by be refined transport categories, competing globally with an industrial chain mindset. Innovation GBA has abundant R&D resources, with a number of well-known colleges and universities, state key laboratories and startup incubators. Platforms such as potential to be alliance of enterprises, universities and research institutions may be established tapped in the future to speed up the progress of new technology from research to application. © 2019. For information, contact Deloitte China. 9 Decoding the GBA Outline Development Plan © 2017. For information, contact Deloitte China. 10 Decoding the GBA Outline Development Plan Two objectives Five strategic positioning By 2022: • Substantially increase overall strength of GBA, deepen and broaden cooperation among Guangdong, Hong Kong and A vibrant world-class city cluster Macao, and further enhance internal driving forces for development in the region; • Essentially form a framework for an international first-class A globally influential innovation and bay area and world-class city cluster that is vibrant and highly innovative with an optimized industrial structure, a smooth technology hub flow of various factors and a pleasant ecological environment. By 2035: An important pillar for the Belt and Road • Shape an economic ecosystem and mode of development Initiative underpinned by innovation; • Markets within GBA are highly connected; A showcase for in-depth cooperation • Remarkably improve coordination of regional development; between the mainland and Hong Kong • People become wealthier; and Macao • Further cultural development, and enhance exchanges between different cultures; A high-quality sphere for living, working • Effectively protect ecological environment, and build an world- and travelling class bay area agreeable for living, working, and travelling. Eight priorities Spatial layout Putting forward ecological conservation Developing an international innovation and Developing a high-quality sphere for living, working and technology hub travelling Expediting infrastructural connectivity Strengthening cooperation and jointly participating in the Belt and Road Initiative Building a globally competitive modern industrial Jointly developing Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao system cooperation platforms © 2019. For information, contact Deloitte China. 11 Priorities of the GBA Development Plan •Spatial layout •Regional coordinated •Guangdong-Hong Kong- innovation Macao cooperation & •Developing innovation & development technology carriers and •Participating in the Belt platforms and Road Initiative •Enhancing environment for Developing innovation Deepening an regional international economic innovation & integration technology hub Building a Developing a modern quality industrial working and system living sphere •Advanced manufacturing •Infrastructural industry connectivity •Strategic emerging •Cultural soft power industries •Education •Modern service industries •Ecological conservation •Marine economy © 2019. For information, contact Deloitte China. 12 Deepening regional economic integration Building a spatial network driven by poles, supported by axes and radiating to nearby areas Driven by poles: • Strong combinations of Hong Kong-Shenzhen, Guangzhou-Foshan and Macao-Zhuhai Supported by axes: • A rapid transport network involving mainly high-speed rails, intercity railways and high-grade motorways, as well as port and airport clusters • Utilize the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge, speed up the construction of key transport infrastructures such as Shenzhen-Zhongshan Bridge and the Shenzhen-Maoming Railway Radiating the development of the Pan-Pearl River Delta (PRD) Region: • A key economic support zone
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