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BUY LPKR's Profile What Is the Latest Issue?

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BUY LPKR's Profile What Is the Latest Issue? BNIS INVESTMENT NOTE PT Lippo Karawaci Tbk (LPKR) I N D O N E S I A Equity November 2nd, 2016 A n a l y s t : Maxi Liesyaputra Property [email protected] Strong support from healthcare business LPKR’s profile PT Lippo Karawaci Tbk. (LPKR) is an integrated property company, consisting of development and recurring businesses. The develop- ment business is divided into four segments, which are townships, large scale integrated development, industrial and commercial properties and office projects. On the other side, the recurring busi- ness consists of hospitals (Siloam Hospitals, or SILO), commercial BUY (retail malls and Aryaduta Hotels) and asset management. LPKR has around 8,078 ha of development rights with a landbank inven- TP: IDR 1,130 tory of 1,322 ha. The locations of its property areas locations are well spread out in Karawaci (Lippo Village), Cikarang (Lippo Cika- Volality Risk : HIGH rang), Puri (St. Moritz), Kemang (Kemang Village), Makassar (Tanjung Bunga) and Karawang (San Diego Hills Memorial Park). Stock Data The company manages 44 malls, including Lippo Mall Puri and PX Current Price Rp 900 Pavillion, scattered throughout Indonesia, with total gross floor 52wk Range Rp 865-1,380 area (GFA) of 3.2 million sqm. LPKR also manages 9 Aryaduta Ho- YTD % Change -13.04% tels (total 1,970 rooms) throughout Indonesia with overall average Share Outstanding 23,077.7 mn occupancy rate of 65% as of June 30, 2016;with the largest hotel is Market Capitalizaon Rp 20,769.9 bn Hotel Aryaduta Jakarta (Central Jakarta) with 302 rooms, followed Floang Rate 68% by Hotel Aryaduta Semanggi at 274 rooms (South Jakarta). 1 Year Total Return -24.12% Beta 1.184 What is the Latest Issue? Major Shareholders Healthcare revenue supports LPKR’s performance Pacific Asia Holding 17.9% Public 68.0% LPKR has a well-diversified revenue portfolio, considerably differ- entiated, compared to other property players in Indonesia. Against 30.00% slowing domestic property growth, the company’s healthcare busi- 20.00% TotalTotal Retun Return ness still shows steady improvement, rising significantly in 1H16 by 10.00% 28.6% YoY, to IDR 2.5 trillion, in 1H16 with a revenue contribution 0.00% of 50%, compared to a revenue contribution of 41.9% in 1H15. -10.00% -20.00% Exhibit 1. Revenue composition in 1H16 -30.00% 3.7% LPKR JCI JAKPROP Urban development 8.4% Large scale integrated dev 22.8% 1,400 1,300 Retail malls TP: RpTP: 1,130 Rp 1,130 BUY 1,200 Healthcare 1,100 11.9% 1,000 50.0% Hospitality and infra 900 3.2% 800 Property and portfolio 700 mgt 600 Source: LPKR, processed by BNIS Research PT BNI Securies - Research Division Catalyst Planning to sell assets to REITS In 4Q16 LPKR plans to sell the company’s assets to REITS (Real Estate Investment Trust) for Rp 1.7 trillion. Assets consist of Lippo Mall Kuta at Rp 800 billion, Lippo Plaza Yogyakarta and Siloam Hospital Yogyakarta, for a total of Rp 900 billion. This will be a significant improvement, compared to no asset sale to REITS in 2015. Through this asset sale plan, LPKR aims to have revised total marketing sales of Rp 5.2 trillion, from a previous Rp 6.6 trillion, with total property sales of Rp 3.5 trillion. Note that in 2014 LPKR sold assets to REITS amounting to Rp 3.3 trillion, unloading Lippo Mall Kemang in South Jakarta. Recommendaon Recommendaon: BUY with TP of Rp 1,130 per share LPKR has a well-diversified revenue portfolio, along with separate locations, mainly in western Jakarta. The company handles various property products, including landed houses, apartments and even a memo- rial park. For recurring income, LPKR offers medical services through SILO across Indonesia, supported by increasing hospital numbers. Apartment launches have been successfully carried out in Lippo Cikarang which has been successful along with increasing demand for residential property in industrial areas. Other recurring incomes are derived from Aryaduta hotels and retail mall management. The company also obtains fees from asset management in REIT, mall and hotel management and also town management services, leisure and restaurants. The various businesses enable LPKR to stoutly face any turbulence in the tricky property business. LPKR is traded at a forward 2017 PER and 2017 PBV of 26.4x and 1.1x respective- ly. We have a target price (TP) of Rp 1,130 for LPKR. The recommendation is BUY. Exhibit 2. Portion of recurring income 68% 66% 65.3% 64% 62% 60% 58% 55.7% 56% 54% 52% 50% 1H15 1H16 Source: LPKR, processed by BNIS Research 2 KEY POINTS Launching plan in 2H16 In 1H16 LPKR did not launch any property product. The company only sold existing products during the period, marking Rp 602 billion. In Oc- tober 2016 LPKR plans to launch Orange County Tower 6, located in Lippo Cikarang. Previously the company already launched Orange County Tower 5, with 100% sold out, following the successful launch of four Orange County Towers earlier, with 100% take up rate as well. For both Tower 5 and 6, featuring Japanese-style design, the company col- laborates with Mitsubishi Corporation of Japan. Mitsubishi oversees the design and architecture of of both towers, working with a Japanese contractor, Kajima. Furthermore, the company also plans to launch Urban Homes in De- cember 2016,which targeting middle to middle low customers. The starting price is Rp 400 million per unit (36 sqm) which is approximately half the price of Millennium Village unit. LPKR plans to start the con- struction of Urban Homes in mid-2017. SILO capital enhancement SILO plans to conduct a rights issue by issuing 145 million new shares. Proceeds will be used for funding capex of hospital expansion, general working capital and shareholder loan repayment. Currently SILO oper- ates 23 hospitals throughout Indonesia; the latest 3 are in Labuan Bajo, Buton and Samarinda. SILO has seven mature hospitals (Lippo Village, Kebon Jeruk, Surabaya, Jambi, Cikarang, Balikpapan) and MRCC Se- manggi, each with its own unique center of excellence. For example, MRCC has a Cancer, Lever and Emergency Center of Excellence, while Siloam Hospitals Surabaya has Fertility Treatment, Cardiology and Emergency Centers of Excellence. One advantage of SILO hospitals is that its hospitals accept BPJS Kesehatan (Healthcare and Social Security Agency). The company has 42 new hospitals throughout Indonesia in the pipeline as well. In 2016, SILO expects to complete the develop- ment of some hospitals, in Bogor, Bangka Belitung, Banjarmasin, Gunung Sahari, Bekasi Grand Mall and Jember. We believe that the healthcare business will keep on growing, along with increasing hospital units and healthcare awareness throughout Indonesian society. This will also support LPKR’s performance signifi- cantly, mostly when the property business goes flat. Exhibit 3. Hospitals in Indonesia No Owner 31-Dec-14 31-Dec-15 30-Jun-16 1 Ministry of Health 34 36 36 2 Province government 98 113 118 3 Municipal government 93 98 98 4 Distric government 463 469 472 5 Army/Police 170 170 170 6 Other ministries/ public companies 79 79 79 7 Private 1,472 1,525 1,584 Total 2,409 2,490 2,557 Source: Ministry of Health 3 KEY POINTS Exhibit 4. Beds to 1,000 population 3.5 2.95 2.84 2.84 3 2.5 2.16 2.01 2 1.63 1.5 0.97 1.02 1 0.5 0 Indonesia India Malaysia Thailand Singapore United USA China Kingdom Source: LPKR presentation material Improving total revenues LPKR posted 7.6% YoY higher total revenues in 1H16, at Rp 5.1 trillion, revenue in 1H16 to which the healthcare business contributed 50%, a significant im- provement increase of 28.6% YoY to Rp 2.5 trillion. Almost all of its rev- enue streams recorded a meaningful improvement as well. Only large- scale integrated development posted a decline, down 40.6% YoY to Rp 609.8 billion, which it was 11.9% contribuon to total revenues. Gross profit rose by 3.3% YoY to Rp 2.2 trillion in 1H16. On the other hand, the slight improvement in gross profit was mainly because in 1H16 LPKR posted a higher poron of recurring income (with a lower margin) compared to property development. LPKR’s profit declined by 15.3% YoY to Rp 1 trillion, on the back of higher general and administrave expenses, which soared by 30% YoY to Rp 1.1 trillion. The main problem of that was rental expense in- crease of 588% YoY to Rp 144.6 billion. Meanwhile, net finance ex- pense surged significantly, by 87.3% YoY to Rp 158.6 billion in 1H16. As a result, net profit declined by 35.8% YoY to Rp 497.8 billion in 1H16. 4 KEY POINTS Marketing sales achieve- LPKR posted marketing sales of Rp 753 billion in 9M16, with the high- ment in 9M16 est contributor was Lippo Cikarang at Rp 421 billion, followed by unique product SDH (San Diego Hills) at Rp 118 billion. The company also posted marketing sales of Rp 48 billion from condominiums. The marketing sales achievement was only 21.8% of their target for property sales of Rp 3.45 trillion in FY16. LPKR expects to have Rp 1.7 trillion of its assets sold to REITS in 4Q16. In total, the company has a marketing sales target of Rp 5.2 trillion. Exhibit 5. Marketing sales 9M16 Rp billion Project's name 9M16 Lippo Village 46 Lippo Cikarang Residential 353 Commercial Industrial 6 Delta Silicon 8 (JV) 62 Total LC 421 Holland Village Manado 36 Tanjung Bunga 65 San Diego Hills Memorial Park 118 Subtotal 685 Condominiums: Kemang Village 9 Millennium Village (LV) 10 Orange County (LC) 5 St.
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