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Economic Resilience of German Lignite Regions in Transition

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Economic Resilience of German Lignite Regions in Transition A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Stognief, Nora; Walk, Paula; Schöttker, Oliver; Oei, Pao-Yu Article — Published Version Economic Resilience of German Lignite Regions in Transition sustainability Provided in Cooperation with: German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) Suggested Citation: Stognief, Nora; Walk, Paula; Schöttker, Oliver; Oei, Pao-Yu (2019) : Economic Resilience of German Lignite Regions in Transition, sustainability, ISSN 2071-1050, MDPI, Basel, Vol. 11, Iss. 21 (Article No.) 5991, http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su11215991 , https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/21/5991 This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/223232 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ www.econstor.eu sustainability Article Economic Resilience of German Lignite Regions in Transition Nora Stognief 1,2,3,*, Paula Walk 1, Oliver Schöttker 3 and Pao-Yu Oei 1,2 1 Workgroup for Economic and Infrastructure Policy (WIP), TU Berlin. Straße des 17. Juni 135, 10623 Berlin, Germany; [email protected] (P.W.); [email protected] (P.-Y.O.) 2 Department of Energy, Transportation, Environment, DIW Berlin. Mohrenstraße 58, 10117 Berlin, Germany 3 Department of Economics, in particular environmental economics, Institute of Environmental Sciences, Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus—Senftenberg. Erich-Weinert-Straße 1, Building 10, 03046 Cottbus, Germany; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected] Received: 7 October 2019; Accepted: 24 October 2019; Published: 28 October 2019 Abstract: This paper recalls the development of the German lignite regions Rhineland and Lusatia since 1945 to allow for a better understanding of their situation in 2019. We analyze their economic resilience, defined as adaptive capacity, using Holling’s adaptive cycle model. We find that the Rhineland is currently in the conservation phase, while Lusatia experiences a reorganization phase following the economic shock of the German reunification. Key policy recommendations for the upcoming coal phase-out are to foster innovation within the Rhineland’s infrastructures to avoid overconnection, and to expand digital and transportation infrastructure in Lusatia so that the structurally weak region can enter the exploitation phase. Future policymaking should take into consideration the differences between the two regions in order to enable a just and timely transition during which lasting adaptive capacity can be built. Keywords: coal phase-out; energy transition; coal transition; sustainability transition; Energiewende; just transition; structural change; regional economic resilience; adaptive cycle model; Germany 1. Introduction A global decline of the use of fossil fuels is crucial for reaching the 1.5 ◦C goal of the Paris climate agreement. At the same time, history has shown that past coal transitions have often had severe negative socioeconomic consequences on the affected regions due to poor management [1]. Consequently, literature has put an increasing focus on the just transition towards sustainable social-ecological systems [2–5]. In this context, the concept of resilience, especially the evolutionary perspective using the adaptive cycle model (AC) [6], has inspired useful insights on how regional economies withstand major disturbances [7,8]. We use this concept to address the situation of the two major German lignite mining regions that are currently undergoing sustainability transitions: the Rhineland in the western German state of North-Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), and Lusatia in eastern Germany in the former German Democratic Republic (GDR) (for the location of the regions see Figure1). To analyze the coal transition in the two regions, it is important to understand the current state of the energy transition in Germany. Climate protection advocates have long been calling for a coal phase-out, a claim which has since gained the support of the majority of the population [9]. As an attempt to comply with the Paris Agreement as well as a reaction to public opinion, the German federal government implemented a commission for growth, structural change, and employment (the so-called “coal commission”) in 2018 with the mandate to develop a roadmap for the phase-out of coal, including Sustainability 2019, 11, 5991; doi:10.3390/su11215991 www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability Sustainability 2019, 11, x FOR PEER REVIEW 2 of 17 Sustainability 2019, 11, 5991 2 of 17 so-called “coal commission”) in 2018 with the mandate to develop a roadmap for the phase-out of coal, including a fixed end-date. Its recommendation of phasing out coal by 2035–2038 [10] is a a fixed end-date. Its recommendation of phasing out coal by 2035–2038 [10] is a compromise between compromise between claims to phase out coal by 2030 to meet the Paris Agreement [11] and concerns claims to phase out coal by 2030 to meet the Paris Agreement [11] and concerns of representatives of of representatives of the lignite regions asking for sufficient time to manage the structural change. As the lignite regions asking for sufficient time to manage the structural change. As of September 2019, of September 2019, the recommendations of the commission are currently being transferred and the recommendations of the commission are currently being transferred and specified in the so-called specified in the so-called Structural Enhancement Act (Strukturstärkungsgesetz), to be passed by the Structural Enhancement Act (Strukturstärkungsgesetz), to be passed by the end of 2019. end of 2019. Figure 1. Location of the study regi regionsons Rhineland and Lusatia. Germany already has some experience with coal transitions,transitions, namely from the former hard coal mining regions in the Ruhr area and thethe SaarlandSaarland inin thethe westernwestern partpart ofof thethe country.country. While past structural changechange in in those those regions regions has has not not been been without without difficulties, difficulties, they can they generally can generally serve as serve positive as examplespositive examples in comparison in comparison to other to international other internat experiencesional experiences [12–14]. [12–14]. Other regionsOther regions that have that yet have to faceyet to similar face similar transition transition can learn can learn from from the experiences the experiences already already made, made, the goodthe good ones ones as well as well as the as badthe bad ones. ones. However, However, the dithefferences differences between between individual individual coal regionscoal regions usually usually do not do allow not forallow direct for transferdirect transfer of successful of successful strategies strate fromgies from one one region region to anotherto another [13 [1–153–15].]. Instead, Instead, an an investigationinvestigation of individual prerequisites and conditions is is required for each region in order toto derivederive meaningfulmeaningful policy recommendations. To facilitatefacilitate thisthis process,process, we synthesizesynthesize existing theories and frameworks on sustainability transitions and and regional regional economic economic resilience resilience in in Sectio Sectionn 2.2 .In In Section Section 3,3 ,we we ex explainplain the the methodology methodology of ofthe the adaptive adaptive cycle cycle model model and andits application its application to our to specific our specific case. We case. analyze We analyzeour case ourstudy, case the study, past thedevelopment past development of German of lignite German regions, lignite from regions, a perspective from a perspective of regional of economic regional resilience economic in resilience Sections in4.1 Sections and 4.2. 4.1 In andSection 4.2. 4.3, In Section we then 4.3 identify, we then possible identify pathways possible pathwaystowards a towards sustainable a sustainable and resilient and resilienttransition. transition. We conclude We conclude with a discussion with a discussion of the results of the in results Section in 5. Section 5. 2. Sustainability Transitions and Regional Economic Resilience Why is it so didifficultfficult forfor carbon-intensivecarbon-intensive regions regions to to reduce reduce their their dependence dependence on on fossil fossil fuels fuels even even if alternativesif alternatives are are available? available? Old industrialOld industrial areas tendareas to tend be subject to be to subject two phenomena: to two phenomena: path
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