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Global Commerce in Small Satellites: Trends and New Business Models

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Global Commerce in Small Satellites: Trends and New Business Models Global Commerce in Small Satellites: Trends and New Business Models 28th Annual AIAA/USU Conference on Small Satellites August 4, 2014 Paper SSC14-I-2 Robert H. Meurer Seah, Peng Hwee VP, Business Development, Commercial & International Programs Vice President, Space Systems ATK Aerospace Group; Space Systems Division ST Electronics, Satcom & Sensor Systems Technical Chairman Emeritus, AIAA/USU Conference on Small Satellites (Non-Export Controlled - ATK IPWG Approval 643) Empowering thru’ Innovation Innovation…Delivered The Abstract Becomes Reality “New business opportunities, rising demand for satellite based services, and particularly emerging nation markets have sparked the imagination of established providers and new space entrepreneurs to capitalize on the unique abilities of small satellites in bringing to market new businesses or government services.” “The collision of a Silicon Valley business philosophy coupled with the continued miniaturization of space technologies has given birth to a fresh set of New Space businesses, some of which have generated significant buzz in the venture capital community.” When I submitted the above abstract, I could not have known just how quickly the state of the market would be changing today – well at least not precisely • How many here would have predicted that we would be spelling small satellite this way? August 4, 2014 1 New Space Entrepreneurs and Niche Applications The Google acquisition was itself enabled by another revolution in our industry – the move by certain entrepreneurial “New Space” companies to create constellations of earth observation small satellites In 2006 I opined: “...small and micro-spacecraft have demonstrated an ability to provide high quality imagery at a cost per square kilometer that rivals (if not improves upon) the cost of imagery from the large imaging systems. Moreover, small satellite systems offer advantages that uniquely set them apart from the large systems.” “Key Challenges and Opportunities After a 20 Year History of Promoting Small Satellites,” Robert H. Meurer, The 4S Symposium, Chia Laguna, Sardenia; September 25, 2006 No more compelling example of this fact can be offered than the entrance of Skybox Imaging to the commercial marketplace with the launch of SkySat-1 on November 21, 2013. Joining Skybox in the pursuit of “New Space” markets are numerous firms looking to capitalize on the demand in established or unique niche markets May 26, 2014 2 Constellations are in Vogue Planet Labs raised $65M GeoOptics and PlanetiQ Dauria Aerospace is (est.) in venture capital GPS-RO constellations that pursuing a new generation • Business model is based on seek 1st to market status of low cost, small satellites an earth imaging satellite • Their mission is to improve • Planning to deploy network built on CubeSats weather forecast accuracy, constellations of both launched off the ISS timeliness, and contribute earth observation and • Planet Labs has launched to climate modelling and communications satellites >28 satellites in its first space weather prediction • Bringing a commercial “Flock” (28 more on ISS) • Both are still building their market capability to image with plans to get to 100 first satellites and raising “the entire arable surface over the next 12 months capital of the Earth” • Earth observation remains the #1 small-satellite-based application worldwide, BUT... • Facebook has established Internet.org “to make affordable access to basic internet services available to every person in the world” using drones, satellites and lasers August 4, 2014 3 Emerging Space Nations Prefer Small Satellites • Nations from Chile to South Korea have shown a preference for small satellites • The worlds newest agencies established in this decade include the UK’s new executive space agency (UKSA), the South African National Space Agency (SANSA), Belarus Space Agency (BSA), Mexican Space Agency (AEM), National Aerospace Development Administration (North Korea), and Turkmenistan National Space Agency (TNSA); The United Arab Emirates has just held its first meeting for a new space agency there August 4, 2014 4 Earth Observation by the Numbers In this decade, small satellites are poised to become the core of numerous Earth Observation (EO) systems and a significant source of global imagery • Over 275 government-owned EO satellites are under contract, in development, or projected to be developed for launch in the period from 2013 through 2022 • Euroconsult research indicates “the number of Earth observation (EO) satellites launched by civil government and commercial entities is expected to more than double over the next decade to 360 satellites, translating into $35.8 billion in manufacturing revenues over 2013 to 2022, an 88% increase” over the prior decade • Significant growth in both government and commercial earth observation systems is, in part, fueled by projected Compounded Annual Growth Rates (CAGR) between 15% and 25% in the earth imagery market over the next five years • The growth in satellite-based earth observation products through commercial vertical markets, i.e., information, data products and value added processing, is projected to double, if not triple, from approximately $2B today to as much as $6B by 2022 • Over 40 countries will order, build and/or launch an EO satellite – most of them small EO missions from emerging nations will contribute to staggering growth in the number of satellite launches in the coming decade • By every reasonable metric, significant growth in EO satellite systems and services is clearly evidenced. But what does this imply for the small satellite market? August 4, 2014 5 Emerging Applications and Markets While much of the activity in earth observation continues to focus on conventional visible and near-infrared imaging from space, three applications appear to be emerging and show potential for commercial space expansion • Agricultural Monitoring and Management – Assessing spectral signatures of various crops to determine the health, growing conditions, and yield prospects of crops • Synthetic Aperture Radar – Providing imagery to manage water or natural disasters • Weather – With applications for terrestrial as well as space weather prediction Image courtesy of ParBleu Inc. and the Canadian Space Agency August 4, 2014 6 ENTREPRENEURS SEEKING NEW BUSINESS MODELS “TODAY’S COMPETITOR IS TOMORROW’S PARTNER” August 4, 2014 7 The Commerce of Satellites in Tight Markets When resources are tight, creative strategies offer opportunities to grow one’s business • Countries and agencies agreeing to a greater exchange of imaging data Thailand and Japan share a common interest in the production of rice in their two countries Despite being competitors on the world market for rice, Thailand’s Geo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency (GISTDA) and the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), have co-organized a series of workshops focused on rice crop monitoring • Imaging providers sharing distribution channels, each providing a piece of the picture th On April 15 , 2014, DigitalGlobe, Inc. announced they would cooperate with MDA in Canada to offer combined optical and synthetic aperture radar satellite data solutions to their respective global defence and intelligence customers The announced capability provides their customers with an ability to “task and collect with DigitalGlobe's constellation of high-resolution earth imaging satellites, along with ability to receive and process near real-time data from the RADARSAT-2 SAR satellite” • Traditional competitors joining forces to pursue space hardware manufacturing In February 2014,– ATK Space Systems Inc. and ST Electronics (Satcom & Sensor Systems) Pte. Ltd., two independent suppliers of small and micro-satellites, entered into an agreement to jointly develop, manufacture and supply microsatellites and integration services to the world Together, our two companies created a unique partnership to deliver cost-effective, turn-key microsatellite-based space mission services Working together, ATK and STEE SatComS will deliver market competitive microsatellites and mission services to the world space market August 4, 2014 8 ST Electronics (Satcom & Sensor Systems) Leading SATCOM Solutions Provider • VSAT RF components • Hubs & routers • Fixed and mobile earth stations Earth Observation Satellites, Subsystems & Services Provider Satellite Buses Subsystems GeoServices TeLEOS-1 A150S/ SS-400 SS-150 X_SAT SS-100 Provide High Availability Develop & Supply Small Develop & Supply Space- High Responsiveness Satellite Buses Qualified Sub-systems Services August 4, 2014 9 Satellite Systems Programs & Missions Small satellite industry leader for national security, civil science, and commercial missions • Agile, rapid systems up to 1,800 Kg THEMIS • Single spacecraft or constellation solutions A100 • Fixed, development, or fee-for-service pricing EO-1 A200 100% spacecraft bus on-orbit success • EO-1 Spacecraft 13+ years on-orbit TacSat-3 1-year, single-string mission design life A200 • THEMIS constellation of five spacecraft operating in Earth and Lunar orbit • TacSat-3 operationalized from successful experimental mission ORS-1 ViviSat MEV • ORS-1 declared operational for CENTCOM combat A200 A700 support use in January 2012 • Spacecraft systems integration leadership on next generation small satellite missions • Systems engineering, mission modeling & simulation, AI&T, payload and launch vehicle integration • Core subsystem disciplines: structures, mechanisms, thermal
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