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The Polish Grocery Retail Market in 2010-2020 Proximity Supermarkets and Convenience Segments Will Benefit from Slower Growth of Discounters

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The Polish Grocery Retail Market in 2010-2020 Proximity Supermarkets and Convenience Segments Will Benefit from Slower Growth of Discounters THE POLISH GROCERY RETAIL MARKET IN 2010-2020 PROXIMITY SUPERMARKETS AND CONVENIENCE SEGMENTS WILL BENEFIT FROM SLOWER GROWTH OF DISCOUNTERS November, 2016 2 Grocery retail in Poland 2010-2020 – detailed analysis of convenience and proximity supermarkets segments Contents 1 Grocery retail market 5 2 Customer trends 13 3 Regulations 15 3 Grocery retail in Poland 2010-2020 – detailed analysis of convenience and proximity supermarkets segments Foreword We are happy to present the extended version of The Polish grocery retail market in 2010-2020 report published by Roland Berger in August 2016. The report gained noticeable market traction with number of articles in the most opinion shaping portals and newspapers. After thorough analysis and interviews with key market stakeholders we have decided to update and enrich the report with new conclusions. Major differences vs previous report are in market segmentation and forecast projection. We have distinguished soft franchise segment and divided supermarkets into large and proximity supermarkets. The reason for the change is different drivers behind those segments and therefore possible blurring of some market trends and dynamics. We have also updated the forecast as for major players in terms of LFL sales 2016 is much more lucrative than 2014 and 2015, inflationary perspective for Poland has changed and we have taken into account the impact of minimum wage. The results of the more detailed segmentation shine a new light on the market dynamics and the conclusions presented in the report describe deeper the perspectives for the future grocery market development. We encourage you to read the report carefully and wish you a pleasant lecture. 4 Grocery retail in Poland 2010-2020 – detailed analysis of convenience and proximity supermarkets segments Market expects convenience stores, proximity supermarkets and discounters to continue to be the fastest growing market segments. Overall market growth of grocery in Poland was Market expects the overall grocery sales in Poland 3.4% on average annually since 2010. Traditional to grow by 3.7% annually on average till 2020 trade declined on average by over 7% annually while driven by disposable income growth resulting from modern formats increased their market share by GDP development and increase in minimal wages total of 15 pp. Consumer trends strongly favoured as well as 500+ program (especially in 2016 and both discounters (14.1% annual growth) and 2017). Growth of inflation is also expected to be a convenience stores (14% annual growth) – those contributing factor. Traditional trade is expected two segments combined increased their market to further decline (by 3.7% annually) to reach share by 13 pp (from 21% to 34%) enjoying growth 14% share in 2020 as supported by CEE and WE on LFL and by aggressive network expansion. benchmarks. Convenience stores are expected to Proximity supermarkets were the third fastest continue to be the fastest growing segment (12.5% growing segment (8.1% annually), benefiting from annually) followed by proximity supermarkets (8.2% favourable customer trends. Furthermore number annually) and discounters (decrease in growth rate of stores increased the fastest in this segment (by from 14.1% 2010-2015 to 6.6% annually in the over 13% annually). Soft franchise networks enjoyed forecast period due to visible slow down in network moderate growth at rates above overall market, expansion, especially by Biedronka). Soft franchise which enabled them to increase their market share is expected to grow at rates comparable to overall by 3 pp. Sales volume and number of stores both market while hypermarkets and large supermarkets in large supermarkets and hypermarkets segments will further lose ground to other modern trade stagnated – their combined market share declined formats (decline of combined market share by 4pp). by 3 pp. Six key customer trends impact the buying behaviour and customer preferences across all retail formats: busy lifestyle, new family model, demand for higher quality, health consciousness, increased sophistication and awareness of customers and regional development. Expected customer trends, buying behaviour and preferences (including fast shopping, convenience, proximity etc.) will further promote development of convenience formats, discounters as well as small proximity supermarkets over other modern (large supermarkets, hypermarkets and soft franchise) and traditional channels. 5 Grocery retail in Poland 2010-2020 – detailed analysis of convenience and proximity supermarkets segments 1 Grocery retail market 1.1 Historical development of grocery market Historical development of grocery market and traditional and modern channel Sales value, 2010-2015 [PLN bn] Number of stores, 2010-2015 ['000] 65% 69% 72% 75% 78% 80% CAGR 16% 18% 21% 24% 27% 30% CAGR 211 3.4% 166 -3.7% 205 198 156 192 151 184 27 145 178 141 29 137 32 34 38 41 7.8% 8.4% 169 116 128 139 149 160 138 127 119 111 103 97 62 56 53 -7.7% -6.9% 49 44 41 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Modern Traditional XX Share of modern channel Source: Roland Berger analysis based on PMR, EMIS, Euromonitor, company webpages and expert interviews Grocery market growth was driven by increasing Share of traditional trade in 2015 approached 20%, disposable income and individual consumption but examples of both Eastern and Western European slowed down due to deflation in 2014 and 2015. countries show potential for further declines. Sales in traditional channel declined an estimated 7.7% annually, in line with historical trends and experiences of more mature markets, while modern trade formats grew over proportionately (7.8% annually on average). 6 Grocery retail in Poland 2010-2020 – detailed analysis of convenience and proximity supermarkets segments 1.2 Forecast of grocery market development Forecast of traditional and modern grocery trade Sales value, 2015-2020 [PLN bn] Number of shops, 2015-2020 ['000] CAGR CAGR CAGR CAGR 80% 82% 84% 85% 86% 86% '10-'15 '15-'20 30% 32% 35% 38% 40% 42% '10-'15 '15-'20 252 3.4% 3.7% 137.4 -3.7% -0.6% 245 135.6 134.6 133.8 133.8 133.7 238 230 219 211 40.9 43.9 47.4 7.8% 5.3% 50.6 53.5 56.2 8.4% 6.6% 210 218 192 201 169 180 96.6 91.7 87.1 83.2 80.3 -7.7% -3.7% 77.5 -6.9% -4.3% 41 39 38 36 35 34 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Modern Traditional XX Share of modern trade Source: Roland Berger analysis based on PMR, EMIS, Euromonitor, company webpages and expert interviews Overview of traditional trade market shares and their development Traditional trade share, 2015 [%] Traditional trade share development, 2010-2015 [%] p.p. change 55% '10-'15 50% 45% Greece 41% -11 40% Italy 26% -2 35% Spain -4 23% 30% Poland -15 20% 25% Austria 18% -3 20% Germany 15% -1 15% Portugal 15% -4 10% Slovakia 11% -6 0% Lithuania 11% -2 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 United Kingdom 11% -2 Greece Poland Slovakia Austria Latvia 9% -4 Spain Portugal Latvia Source: Roland Berger, EMIS It is expected that the traditional trade will further The rate of decline is expected to slow down decline, both in sales value (-3.7% annually) and as compared to historical figures, because as number of shops (-4.3% annually). traditional grocery shops join soft franchise chains or go out of market an increasing share of traditional Trend is corroborated by experience from both WE trade will come from specialized stores, which are and CEE markets, where traditional trade share still popular among Polish customers (e.g. butchers, stabilizes at levels between 11% and 15%. bakeries, alcohol shops, etc.). 7 Grocery retail in Poland 2010-2020 – detailed analysis of convenience and proximity supermarkets segments 1.3 Historical grocery market segments development Historical development of Polish grocery market by segment Sales value, 2010-2015 [PLN bn] Number of stores, 2010-2015 ['000] CAGR CAGR 166 211 3.4% -3.7% 205 1 0 198 2 1 192 33 156 0 184 34 1.1% 9 4.1% 178 33 2 1 151 32 3 1 0 32 18 2 3.1% 32 17 2.3% 3 145 17 13 10 0 17 13 1 2 141 16 12 10 3 1 0 137 16 10 11 8.1% 2 13.2% 10 1 0 9 13 4 3 55 11 4 9.9% 41 47 51 14.1% 28 35 15 12 12 8 6.0% 10 11 12 15 16 14.0% 16 23 25 28 138 29 32 35 8.1% 19 127 9.8% 119 20 62 56 53 111 49 44 41 -7.7% 103 97 -6.9% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Hypermarkets Large supermarkets Proximity supermarkets Discounters Convenience Soft franchise Traditional Source: Roland Berger analysis based on PMR, EMIS, Euromonitor, company webpages and expert interviews Historical development of Polish grocery market by segment – market shares Share in sales value, 2010-2015 [%] Share in # of stores, 2010-2015 [%] 145 141 178 184 192 198 205 211 166 156 151 0.3 0.3 137 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.3 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 17.8 17.6 16.9 16.8 16.4 15.9 0.8 1.4 1.7 0.7 0.7 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.6 2.7 5.6 8.5 8.3 8.4 6.2 8.8 8.8 8.8 6.8 5.9 6.2 7.6 4.9 5.2 5.4 5.6 8.5 9.0 15.8 7.8 18.9 21.2 23.6 24.9 26.0 8.6 4.7 9.9 5.3 5.7 6.2 11.1 13.2 7.2 7.6 13.5 14.4 13.4 14.6 14.9 15.6 16.4 83.5 81.5 34.7 30.7 79.1 27.6 24.6 76.5 21.7 19.6 72.8 70.3 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Hypermarkets Large supermarkets Proximity supermarkets Discounters Convenience Soft franchise Traditional Source: Roland Berger analysis based on PMR, EMIS, Euromonitor, company webpages and expert interviews Smart shopping trend started during economic crisis chains aggressively, capturing significant part of the strongly supported development of discounters.
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