Commercial Space and the New Entrepreneurs:

Prof. Scott Hubbard Dept. of Aeronautics and Astronautics Director Emeritus, Stanford Center of Excellence for Commercial Space Transportation Editor-in-Chief, New Space June 28, 2017 Why Explore or Utilize Space?

• Major scientific discoveries: “Where did we come from?”; “Are we alone?” • National interest: (e.g., US, or ESA or Russian or Chinese, etc. Leadership) –Nations that don’t explore become stagnant • New technology or business enterprise: Return on Investment • International cooperation for peaceful purposes: International • Stimulate student interest in science, technology, engineering and mathematics • A hedge against future catastrophe? A second home for humanity?

What is Commercial Space/New Space?

• New Space is often taken to mean “commercial space”. –By the US National Space policy, the term “commercial” refers to space goods, services, or activities provided by private sector enterprises that bear a reasonable portion of the investment risk and responsibility for the activity, operate in accordance with typical market-based incentives for controlling cost and optimizing return on investment, and have the legal capacity to offer these goods or services to existing or potential nongovernmental customers.” –In other words, if your only customer is the US government it’s not commercial. If the government pays the whole cost (including overruns and a guaranteed fee or profit), it’s not commercial • The single largest example of commercial space is the space communications industry and supporting areas (>$200B/year) • All commercial space launches are approved (a launch license) by the Federal Aviation Administration Office of Commercial Space Transportation • Commercial are given operating permits by the same office New Space as Entreprenurship

• New Space is generally defined by the practitioners, contracts and marketplace initiatives. Examples in the field outside of communications satellites in this presentation are: –NASA’s Commercial Cargo and Crew Programs –Suborbital –Commercial remote sensing –One Web worldwide internet proposals –Space Mining (Moon, asteroid, etc.) –Lunar exploration/science/transportation – robotic payloads –Human habitats at Space Station –Human What about NASA?

Columbia Shuttle Tragedy 2003 Accident Board recommends recertification or replacement In 2004, Pres. Bush cancels Shuttle after Space Station complete and proposes Constellation • Two new launch rockets • A new • Return to the Moon Norm Augustine’s Review in 2009

Augustine Report: The US human space flight program appears to be on an unsustainable trajectory

(But) there is now a burgeoning commercial space industry. If we craft a space architecture to provide opportunities to this industry, there is the potential the costs to the government would be reduced. NASA: Commercial Space – Cargo and Crew Commercial Resupply to Space Station: Initial contracts worth ~ $2B each*

Sierra Nevada Orbital Sciences Dreamchaser just and ISS selected for Cargo Return to flight despite 2014 mishap SpaceX Dragon 6 successes/7 berths with ISS attempts Returned to flight despite 2015 mishap 10 successful/11 attempts

*Space Act, Fixed Price

The New (Old) Dream – Personal Space Travel Suborbital Tourism*

Virgin Galactic Spaceship 2 test in 2013 Despite tragedy in 2014 VG is continuing with glide tests

Blue Origin: successful tests

* XCOR has suspended operations Commercial – Entrepreneurial Remote Sensing

Skybox – now Terra Bella Planet Labs – now Planet just purchased by Planet very small Digital Globe: Worldview Spacecraft:

Silicon Valley Silicon Valley Startup: ~3 meter Startup: ~1 meter imaging with high imaging with high repeat rate. repeat rate. Company partly High-resolution (30 Company sold to funded by Draper cm) imaging sold to Google for $500M Fisher Jurvetson Industry and US Gov’t One Web: In-Space Internet Service for the Planet

• Google and Fidelity Put $1 Billion Into SpaceX –The Internet giant, along with Fidelity, has invested $1 billion in Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX). The move could help achieve the aim of bringing satellite Internet to remote corners of the world. • Virgin, Qualcomm, SoftBank and others have invested in OneWeb –Richard Branson's Virgin Group and Qualcomm will invest in a venture to build and fly a constellation of 648 satellites that can provide high-speed, global Internet access. Launch by Space Mining Proposed

Planetary Resources Shackleton Energy

Deep Space Industries

Proposed lunar mining effort to Arkyd small space develop propellant telescopes to depots for space identify near- exploration asteroids for future Planned low cost mining “cubesat” spacecraft to study -Now refocused on asteroids <500 earth observations meters for future exploitation Google Lunar X-Prize

• The Google Lunar XPRIZE (GLXP) is $20M organized by XPRIZE, and sponsored by Google. • The challenge calls for privately funded teams to be the first to land a privately funded on the Moon, travel 500 meters, and transmit back high-definition video and images. • 35 Teams initially registered. 5 teams left.

• Announced 2007 – final deadline extension to end of 2017

Moon Express artist’s concept

Typical business plan: provide commercial payload opportunities; especially to states, organizations without a space program Red Dragon Technology Demonstration Red Dragon – Demo 2020

SpaceX Dragon 2 capsule demonstrating Mars surface missions with a rocket for launch. With a successful 2020 demo of supersonic retro-propulsion, ~1 metric ton payload could be landed.

NASA support in navigation, trajectory, communications, Entry Descent & Landing, Planetary Protection, etc. ($6M in 2016, $32M/4 years)

Future Science payloads could be solicited and funded by NASA Living in Space and Settling Mars

Bigelow Aerospace *

Dutch-based initiative to settle Mars via one-way trips, Las Vegas real estate starting in 2024. Business entrepreneur developed an plan involves television rights “Expandable” habitat (BEAM) and advertising now attached to the ISS. Studies continuing; listed on Plan is “labs and hotels in Frankfurt Stock Exchange space”.

* Mars One concept settlement. Credit: Mars One. 2015 Workshop Proposes an Orbit in 2033 Approach

Independently costed study by JPL staff - shows feasibility using a minimal architecture

Phobos Lander/ Mars Orbiter Mars Lander 2033 2039

Current Programs HSF Annual HSF Annual Cost

ISS support ends in 2024 Lockheed Martin Mars Base Camp 2028

• Mars Base Camp (MBC) is a crewed Mars laboratory orbiter concept that proposes to send to Mars orbit as early as 2028. • The purpose of MBC is to conduct real-time telerobotic science, both in Mars orbit and on the surface of its moons, and serve as a proving ground in preparing humans for future missions to the Martian surface. The SpaceX Vision (IAC 2016) SpaceX Vision for Affordability

Median cost ≈ $140,000 SpaceX Mars Settlement Engineering Why Do We Care About Commercial Space for Future Exploration?

• Entrepreneurial space ventures creating new business and new capability • Commercial Cargo and Crew provide the basis for much less expensive transport to LEO and perhaps beyond • Entrepreneurs are co-investing. –SpaceX contributed perhaps $150M. –Bezos is selling ~$1B of stock to support Blue Origin. • At least one CEO (Musk) has the public goal of going to Mars; LMCO has developed Mars Base Basecamp • These initiatives are having a strong effect on public engagement –Students are eager to join new companies –Older, affluent citizens have going to space on their “bucket list”. “The more people who go (to space) the more who will want to go”, said Brewster Shaw. Example: How to Explore Mars Create a Consensus, Engage the Entrepreneurs – add Water Distribution of Commercial Space Revenue*

* Data courtesy Space Foundation