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A New Lightning Climatology for Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and NASA Kennedy Space Center

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A New Lightning Climatology for Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and NASA Kennedy Space Center A New Lightning Climatology for Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and NASA Kennedy Space Center William P. Roeder 45th Weather Squadron Patrick AFB, FL 1. Introduction density (both lightning aloft and CG lightning). These maps are in Figure-1 through Figure-8, The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) is respectively. the U.S. Air Force unit that provides weather The CG lightning climatology is useful for support to America’s space program at Cape risk assessment of personnel safety and key Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) and facilities such as launch pads. The data National Aeronautics and Space source was the National Lightning Detection Administration (NASA) Kennedy Space Network (NLDN) (Cummins and Murphy, Center (KSC). The weather requirements of 2009) (Cummins et al., 1998). The period of the space program are very stringent (Harms record was 17-years (1997-2013). This et al., 1999). In addition, the weather in east period was chosen to provide a large enough central Florida is very complex. This is sample size for reliable results and since the especially true of summer thunderstorms and performance of NLDN has been relatively associated hazards. Central Florida is stable after a major upgrade in 1996 ‘Lightning Alley’, the area of highest lightning (Cummins et al., 2006). There were also activity in the U.S. (Holle et al., 2016). The continual incremental improvements from 45 WS uses a dense network of various 1997 onward. Another large improvement to weather sensors to meet the operational NLDN was completed in 2013 (Nag et al., requirements in this environment (Roeder 2016) but that would have provided only three et al., 2003). years of observations, which would be A new lightning climatology was inadequate for a lightning climatology. developed for CCAFS/KSC. The purpose is Including the data from 2014 and 2015 was to update the previous lightning climatology to desired but excluded since the lightning flash improve lightning risk assessment. In data at 14th Weather Squadron for those particular, a method was developed to infer a years were contaminated with stroke data. new parameter, the density of lightning The total lightning climatology is useful for ground contact points, which is more useful assessing the risk of lightning affecting than other parameters in risk assessment. ground operations at CCAFS/KSC since the These climatologies were built by the 14th 45 WS lightning warnings are issued for any Weather Squadron, the Air Force climatology lightning including lightning aloft. The total center at the request of 45 WS. lightning climatology is also useful for risk Mention of any commercial product or assessment to aviation and space launch, vendor does not represent endorsement by although the risk of rocket triggered lightning the government. is not included, which can be more frequent than the risk of natural lightning (McNamara 2. The New Lightning Climatology for et al., 2010). The data source was the Earth CCAFS/KSC Networks Total Lightning Network (ENTLN) The new lightning climatology for (Heckman, 2013). The period of record was CCAFS/KSC are a set of six maps: 1) cloud- 6-years (2000-2015). A longer period is to-ground (CG) flash density, 2) CG stroke desired for a climatology, but this is all the density, 3) CG ground contact density, 4) CG ENTLN data available at 14th Weather multiplicity, 5) CG mean peak current, 6) CG Squadron since the Air Force only began use frequency negative polarity, 7) CG frequency of ENTLN data in 2010. positive polarity, and 8) total lightning flash ________________________________________ Corresponding Author: William P. Roeder, 1201 Edward H. White II St., MS 7302, Patrick AFB, FL 32925; (321) 853-8419; [email protected] All the lightning climatologies are The 45 WS then asked the 14th Weather displayed on maps with 1 km x 1 km squares Squadron to confirm this by repeating the within about 30 nmi of CCAFS/KSC. This flash density analysis with the same data but area was chosen to provide at least 5 nmi varying square size. These varied coverage around all key facilities supported or climatologies are shown in Figure-9. The used by 45 WS: to the north this is the flash densities were 20 flashes/km2yr for northern edge of KSC property, to the east-- 1 x 1 km squares, 17 flashes/km2yr for the point of Cape Canaveral, to the south--the 5 x 5 km squares, and 15 flashes/km2yr for southern edge of Patrick AFB, and to the 10 x 10 km squares. These values are west--the Weather Surveillance Radar owned plotted in Figure-10. Note that the flash by the 45th Space Wing. The eastern edge density is converging toward the flash density was extended farther east to place observed in earlier climatologies with larger CCAFS/KSC, the main area of interest, in the squares. center of the map. The lat/lon of the upper 3.2 Inference of Stroke Density left and lower right corners are (29.07 N, 81.25 W) and (28.05 N, 80.20 W), The stroke density could not be calculated respectively. directly since the stroke data from NLDN was not available at 14th Weather Squadron, the 3. Discussion Air Force climate center that developed these lightning climatologies for 45 WS. Therefore, There are several operational, scientific, the stroke data was inferred by multiplying and procedural items in these climatologies each flash by its multiplicity (number of that need to be discussed. strokes in the flash) and assuming all the 3.1 Local Maximum of Flash Density Higher strokes will occur in the same 1 km x 1 km Than Previous Climatologies square as the flash. This assumption often fails since about half of flashes have strokes Many previous lightning climatologies had with multiple ground contact points and the CG lightning flash densities of about 2 typical distance between those strokes is 14 flashes/km yr for the local maximum in about 3 km (Valine and Krider, 2002). east central Florida near Orlando (Holle et al., However, if there is no systematic pattern in 2016). However, this climatology shows a 2 the multiplicity across the area, then for a flash density of about 20 flashes/km yr in that large sample this issue should be resolved in location (Figure-1), more than 40% higher the averaging process. As shown in Figure-4, than in the previous climatologies. This is an the mean multiplicity appears to be fairly artifact of the much finer horizontal resolution random across the land of east central used in this local lightning climatology. Florida. Therefore, the process used to infer This climatology uses 1 km x 1 km the annual mean stroke density is reasonable. squares, while the other climatologies used squares of about 20 km x 20 km or more 3.3 Multiplicity Over Water Vs. Over Land (Holle et al., 2016). The larger squares dilute While the mean multiplicity appears local maxima with surrounding lower flash random over the land the east central Florida, densities resulting in lower peak values for there is definitely a difference between the the maxima, especially in areas of large mean multiplicity over land and over water gradients of local flash density. Likewise, (Figure-4). The over water mean multiplicity smaller squares could cause local minima to is 3.16 strokes per flash while the mean be higher than shown in climatologies with multiplicity over land is slightly lower with 2.75 larger squares. Vaisala, Inc. did some strokes per flash. These multiplicities are analysis suggesting that the differing statistically significant with a p-value of 0.015. resolutions was the cause of the The mean multiplicity over water appears to discrepancies in the local maxima (Brooks, be randomly distributed, as it is over land, 2016). though with a higher overall mean than over land. A higher multiplicity over water has a new method to infer the number of ground been widely observed elsewhere (Schulz, contact points was developed. While not as 2016) (Sugita and Matsui, 2016). accurate as the location error ellipse approach, it is much simpler. The probability 3.4 Ground Contact Density—A Better Way of a second ground contact point is adapted to Access Lightning Risk to Facilities from da Silva Ferro et al. (2012). Assuming The annual mean ground contact density these results observed in Brazil apply is a better approach to CG lightning risk elsewhere and assuming that flashes with assessment than flash density or even stroke three or more ground contact points are rare, density. While this approach has been then Table-1 provides the expected number discussed by others (Cummins, 2014) (Stall et of ground strikes as a function of flash al., 2009), it has not been widely applied. multiplicity. While fractional ground strike Many CG flashes have multiple return strokes points are unrealistic, over a large sample, and often those return strokes have multiple the results should average to a reasonable ground contact points separated by result. These results are plotted in Figure-8. kilometers (Saba et al., 2006) (Valine and Krider, 2002). Flashes rarely have three or Table-1 more ground contact points. Therefore, the A new algorithm to convert cloud-to-ground most frequently used flash density will likely flash multiplicity into expected number of underestimate the risk from CG lightning. ground strikes. Adapted from da Silva Ferro However, a stroke density can overestimate et al. (2012). the risk. Consider a CG flash with five strokes Multiplicity Expected Number of Ground Strikes where the first strokes hit the ground at point-A and the third through fifth strokes 1 1.000 strike the ground at point-B a few km from 2 1.485 point-A.
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