Understanding space weather to shield society: A global road map for 2015-2025 commissioned by COSPAR and ILWS Carolus J. Schrijvera,∗, Kirsti Kauristieb,∗, Alan D. Aylwardc, Clezio M. Denardinid, Sarah E. Gibsone, Alexi Gloverf, Nat Gopalswamyg, Manuel Grandeh, Mike Hapgoodi, Daniel Heynderickxj, Norbert Jakowskik, Vladimir V. Kalegaevl, Giovanni Lapentam, Jon A. Linkern, Siqing Liuo, Cristina H. Mandrinip, Ian R. Mannq, Tsutomu Nagatsumar, Dibyendu Nandis, Takahiro Obarat, T. Paul O’Brienu, Terrance Onsagerv, Hermann J. Opgenoorthw, Michael Terkildsenx, Cesar E. Valladaresy, Nicole Vilmerz aLockheed Martin Solar and Astrophysics Laboratory, 3251 Hanover Street, Palo Alto, CA94304, USA bFinnish Meteorological Institute, Finland cUniversity College London, Dept. of physics and astronomy, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, UK dInstituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Brazil eHAO/NCAR, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307-3000, USA fRHEA System and ESA SSA Programme Office, Darmstadt, Germany gNASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA hUniv. of Aberystwyth, Penglais STY23 3B, UK iRAL Space and STFC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Harwell Oxford, Didcot, UK jDH Consultancy BVBA, Diestsestraat 133/3, 3000 Leuven, Belgium kGerman Aerospace Center, Kalkhorstweg 53, 17235 Neustrelitz, Germany lSkobeltsyn Institute of Nuclear Physics, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia mKU Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 200B, Leuven 3001, Belgium nPredictive Science Inc., San Diego, CA, USA oNational Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Haidian District, Beijing 100190, China pInstituto de Astronomia y Fisica del Espacio, Buenos Aires, Argentina qDept. of physics, Univ. Alberta, Edmonton, AB, T6G 2J1, Canada rSpace Weather and Environment Informatics Lab., National Inst. of Information and Communications Techn., Tokyo 184-8795, JAPAN sCenter for Excellence in Space Sciences and Indian Institute of Science, Education and Research, Kolkata, Mohanpur 74125, India tPlanetary plasma and atmospheric research center, Tohoku University, 6-3 Aoba, Aramaki, Aoba, Sendai 980-8578, Japan uSpace science department/Chantilly, Aerospace Corporation, Chantilly, VA 20151, USA vNOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, USA wSwedish Institute of Space Physics, 75121 Uppsala, Sweden xSpace Weather Services, Bureau of Meteorology, Australia yInstitute for scientific research, Boston College, Newton, MA 02459, USA zLESIA, Observatoire de Paris, CNRS, UPMC, Universit´eParis-Diderot, 5 place Jules Janssen, 92195 Meudon, France Abstract There is a growing appreciation that the environmental conditions that we call space weather impact the technological infrastructure that powers the coupled economies around the world. With that comes the need to better shield society against space weather by improving forecasts, environmental specifications, and infrastructure design. We recognize that much progress has been made and continues to be made with a powerful suite of research observatories on the ground and in space, forming the basis of a Sun-Earth system observatory. But the domain of space weather is vast - extending from deep within the Sun to far outside the planetary orbits - and the physics complex - including couplings between various types of physical processes that link scales and domains from the microscopic to large parts of the solar system. Consequently, advanced understanding of space weather requires a coordinated international approach to effectively provide awareness of the processes within the Sun-Earth system through observation-driven models. This roadmap prioritizes the scientific focus areas and research infrastructure that are needed to significantly advance our arXiv:1503.06135v1 [physics.space-ph] 20 Mar 2015 understanding of space weather of all intensities and of its implications for society. Advancement of the existing system observatory through the addition of small to moderate state-of-the-art capabilities designed to fill observational gaps will enable significant advances. Such a strategy requires urgent action: key instrumentation needs to be sustained, and action needs to be taken before core capabilities are lost in the aging ensemble. We recommend advances through priority focus (1) on observation-based modeling throughout the Sun-Earth system, (2) on forecasts more than 12hrs ahead of the magnetic structure of incoming coronal mass ejections, (3) on understanding the geospace response to variable solar-wind stresses that lead to intense geomagnetically-induced currents and ionospheric and radiation storms, and (4) on developing a comprehensive specification of space climate, including the characterization of extreme space storms to guide resilient and robust engineering of technological infrastructures. The roadmap clusters its implementation recommendations by formulating three action pathways, and outlines needed instrumentation and research programs and infrastructure for each of these. An executive summary provides an overview of all recommendations. Preprint for publication in Advances in Space Research March 23, 2015 Keywords: Space weather; COSPAR/ILWS Road Map Panel Contents 7.6 Understand solar energetic particles through- outtheSun-Earthsystem . 34 1 Introduction 5 8 In conclusion 35 2 Space weather: society and science 7 Appendix A Roadmap team and process 35 3 User needs 10 3.1 Electric power sector . 10 Appendix B Roadmapmethodology: trac- 3.2 Positioning, navigation, and communication 11 ing sample impact chains 36 3.3 (Aero)spaceassets . 12 Appendix C State of the art in the science 4 Promising opportunities and some challenges 13 of space weather 36 4.1 The opportunity of improved CME forecasts 13 Appendix C.1 Achievements . 36 4.1.1 Solar surface . 14 Appendix C.2 Prospects for future work . 37 4.1.2 Heliosphere . 16 4.2 Challenges and opportunities for geomag- Appendix D Research needs for the solar- neticdisturbances . 16 heliospheric domain 39 4.2.1 L1 observations: Validation of >1 hr forecasts and interaction with the mag- Appendix E Research needs for the geo- netosphere .............. 16 space domain 43 4.2.2 Reconfigurations in the magnetosphere- Appendix E.1 Magnetospheric field variabil- ionosphere system and strong GICs . 17 ity and geomagnetically-induced currents . 43 4.3 Research for improved forecasts of ionospheric Appendix E.2 Magnetospheric field variabil- storm evolution . 18 ity and particle environment . 47 4.4 Steps for improved radiation belt forecasts Appendix E.3 Ionospheric variability . 51 and specification . 18 Appendix F Concepts for highest-priority 4.5 Challenges for forecasts with lead times be- instrumentation 54 yond2days.................. 19 Appendix F.1 Binocular vision for the corona 4.6 Specification of extreme conditions and fore- to quantify incoming CMEs . 54 castsofthesolarcycle . 20 Appendix F.2 3D mapping of solar field in- 5 General recommendations 21 volved in eruptions . 54 5.1 Research: observational, computational, and Appendix F.3 Strong GICs driven by rapid theoreticalneeds . 23 reconfigurations of the magnetotail . 55 5.2 Teaming of research and users: coordinated Appendix F.4 Coordinated networks for ge- collaborative environment . 24 omagnetic and ionospheric variability . 56 5.3 Collaboration between agencies and com- Appendix F.5 Mapping the global solar field 57 munities . 26 Appendix F.6 Determination of the founda- tion of the heliospheric field . 58 6 Research: observational, numerical, and the- Appendix F.7 Auroral imaging to map mag- oretical recommendations 29 netospheric activity and to study coupling . 58 Appendix F.8 Observation-based radiation 7 Concepts for highest-priority research and environment modeling . 59 instrumentation 31 Appendix F.9 Solar energetic particles in 7.1 Quantify active-region magnetic structure the inner heliosphere . 60 tomodelnascentCMEs . 31 7.2 Coupling of the solar wind to the magneto- Appendix G Acronyms 61 sphere and ionosphere, and strong GICs . 32 7.3 Global coronal field to drive models for the Executive Summary magnetized solar wind . 33 7.4 Quantify the state of the coupled magneto- Space weather is driven by changes in the Sun’s mag- sphere-ionospheresystem . 33 netic field and by the consequences of that variability in 7.5 Observation-based radiation environment mod- Earth’s magnetic field and upper atmosphere. This re- eling . 34 sults in a variety of manifestations, including geomagnetic variability, energetic particles, and changes in Earth’s up- ∗ permost atmosphere. All of these can affect society’s tech- Corresponding authors nological infrastructures in different ways. Email address: [email protected] (Carolus J. Schrijver) 2 Space weather is generally mild but some times 2. Understand space weather origins at the Sun and extreme. Mild space weather storms can degrade electric their propagation in the heliosphere, initially priori- power quality, perturb precision navigation systems, in- tizing post-event solar eruption modeling to develop terrupt satellite functions, and are hazardous to astronaut multi-day forecasts of geomagnetic disturbance times health. Severe space storms have resulted in perturba- and strengths, after propagation through the helio- tions in the electric power system and have caused loss sphere; of satellites through damaged electronics or increased or- 3. Understand the factors that control the generation bital drag. For rare extreme solar events the effects could of geomagnetically-induced currents (GICs) and of be catastrophic with severe consequences for millions of harsh radiation