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From Government Regulation to the Open Market: a Study on the Effects of Regulation Change

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From Government Regulation to the Open Market: a Study on the Effects of Regulation Change Running head: A Study on the Effects of Regulation Change in the Dairy Industry From Government Regulation to the Open Market: A Study on the Effects of Regulation Change in the Dairy Industry in Australia, Ireland, and Canada A Case Study Analysis Christine N. Zwart School of Environmental Design and Rural Planning University of Guelph Running head: A Study on the Effects of Regulation Change in the Dairy Industry Abstract With the rise in globalization international trade agreements introduce new opportunities for trade on an international scale, yet can affect how agriculture operates at the local level. This paper examines how deregulation and trade liberalization has affected the dairy industry in Aus- tralia and discusses how liberalization through the CAP, the CETA, and the TPP may affect the dairy industries in Ireland and Canada. By using Australia as a benchmark to make some predic- tions about the Irish and Canadian cases it is apparent that under the right conditions the dairy industry has the ability to survive major policy changes. In the Irish case study, it is apparent that their dairy industry has great capacity for growth under recent changes to the CAP, however their goal of increasing their dairy yields by 50% by 2020 may be overly optimistic as Irish producers will be competing for international markets. Ireland is also likely to see a reduction in total num- ber of dairy farms over time. The future for Canadian dairy is less certain should the government abandon supply management. Many economists would like to see the end of supply management in Canada, while those in the dairy sector are set on keeping it. So far it is uncertain if Canada would be competitive in a global market due to challenges such as: high production costs, high value of dairy quotas, and low dairy exports. While there are no certainties regarding the health of an industry after significant changes in regulation, understanding what happened in other countries, such as Australia, provide valuable lessons and can give context to the global market. Keywords: Dairy, deregulation, quota, supply management, common agricultural policy, trans-pacific partnership, common economic and free trade agreement, free trade agreement, global market. A Study on the Effects of Regulation Change in the Dairy Industry From Supply Management to the Free Market: A Study on the Effects of Regulation Change in the Dairy Industry in Australia, Ireland, and Ontario A Case Study Analysis Introduction The dairy sector is an important contributor to the economies of Canada, Ireland, and Australia, providing goods both locally and internationally. As globalization opens up increased opportunities for trade, new international agreements change the ways in which agriculture oper- ates at the local level, often resulting in adjustments made to local regulations regarding how dairy industries operate within the country and changing the relationships in import and export markets (Gifford, 2005). Alterations in dairy regulations are especially significant when free trade agreements open traditional local markets to international trade. This paper focuses on how deregulation and trade liberalization has affected the dairy industry in Australia and discusses how liberalization through the CAP, the CETA, and the TPP may affect the dairy industries in Ireland and Canada. The paper consists of three case studies, with data collected through examination of the literature found in academic journal articles, government websites, and newspaper articles. The Australian case study examines the effects of the end to the government regulated dairy industry in 2000. The Irish case study will examine the factors leading to the end to dairy quotas in 2014 and project some potential trends for the near future. The Canadian case study will consider the potential effects of ending the supply management system on the Canadian dairy industry, should the government ever decide to deregulate. In order to determine how changing from a supply 2 | Page A Study on the Effects of Regulation Change in the Dairy Industry managed to a free market system effects the industry, the following research question will be asked: 1. What can we learn from the Australian case to inform how deregulation may change the dairy industries in Ireland and Ontario? To answer this main question several subsidiary questions will be considered: a. How did the opinions of dairy lobbyists affect policy decisions made in Australia and Ire- land? b. How does dairy farming change, at the farm level, after switching to a free market sys- tem? c. What structural conditions need to be in place for a free market dairy system to flourish? The paper uses Australia as a benchmark to make some projections about the Irish and Canadian cases to suggest what Ireland may expect from a free market system in the future, and what might happen to Canadian dairy should the government decide to deregulate supply man- agement in the future. 1.0 Australia: Case Study The Australian dairy industry is among the top three Australian agricultural sectors. Pro- ducing around 9.7 billion liters of raw milk a year, the industry employs 40,000 in farm jobs and the industry as a whole generates over $9.8 billion USD1 annually (Dairy Australia, 2011). This significant industry is spread across all states in Australia – the most substantial farming taking place in the southeastern states (see figure 1). 1 All dollar amounts converted to USD. Australian dollar to US dollar conversion using a AUD/USD ex- change rate of 0.76. 3 | Page A Study on the Effects of Regulation Change in the Dairy Industry The industry not only pro- vides locally produced milk in every region but serves to add value in many regions by way of local pro- cessing of dairy products (Dairy Australia, 2011). Today, Australia produces around 325,000 tonnes of cheese annually, followed by skim milk powder and whole milk powder as the country’s top manufactured dairy products (see figure 2). In addition to providing dairy products locally, the Australian dairy industry exports around 40% of their product, ranking 4th in the world for total exports which bring in approxi- mately $2 billion on an annual basis (Dairy Australia, 2011). The top importers of Australian 4 | Page A Study on the Effects of Regulation Change in the Dairy Industry dairy are in South East Asia and the Middle East, with Japan making up 19% of the export mar- ket (see table 1). This industry which was once heavily controlled by the government has been deregulated since 2000, changing the regulated system into a free market system where demand and price points for fluid milk were no longer regulated by the govern- ment but rather determined by the free market (Doucouliagos & Hone, 2000a). This shift in management caused significant changes in both production and the number of farms left in the country after deregulation. The following sections describe this history as it unfolded, economic changes with- in the sector, and what the dairy industry looks like today, 16 years after deregulation. 1.1 The Deregulation of Australian Dairy Industry Dairy cows first found their way into Australia in the late 1700s with a mere two bulls and seven cows landing in New South Wales in 1788 (Dairy Australia, 2015). Since then the in- dustry has grown to 1,740,000 animals by 2015 (Legendairy, 2016b). For most of its early histo- ry, Australian dairy was primarily localized, serving consumers within the country and there were very few exports. With the advance of technology (i.e. refrigeration) towards the end of the 5 | Page A Study on the Effects of Regulation Change in the Dairy Industry 1800s however, dairying began expanding rapidly and Australia started exporting dairy products abroad. As exports increased in the 1880s and 1890s the government began to consider the bene- fit of regulating the dairy sector. The first national dairy regulation was developed in the early 1920s as the Dairy Produce Export Control Act 1924-1938 (PwC Australia, 2011). The control act was developed as a way to examine all legislation regarding international competition as agreed upon by the Commonwealth of Australia. The act stipulated that the board is to make rec- ommendations to the minister regarding international trade regulation, with recommendations then made through a report which examines Australian exports, laws, and regulations regarding the quality of dairy products, and works to ensure that the commonwealth is taking advantage of any new international markets which could be beneficial to the Australian industry (Dairy Pro- duce Export Control Act, 1924-1938). Under the new regulated system, the Australian dairy sector was separated into two cate- gories: market milk and manufactured milk. Market milk consisted of fluid milk products2, in order to prevent surpluses of fluid milk products sold locally the government regulated the amount of fluid milk produced. Manufactured milk products - such as cheese, butter, powdered milk, etc. – were under fewer regulations and the majority of Australia’s manufactured milk products found their way into the export market (Edwards, 2003, Whetton, 2000). The regulation of the dairy industry saw that producers who sold market, or fluid, milk in the domestic market received a higher price for their product than those selling into the export market, due to domes- 2 For the purposes of this paper “fluid milk” refers to “market milk” as a more reader friendly term. 6 | Page A Study on the Effects of Regulation Change in the Dairy Industry tic price regulation and dairy levies placed on dairy products (Industry Commission, 1991; PwC Australia, 2011). The Dairy Produce Export Control Act has been amended over the years – with the pre- sent version being the Export Control Act 1982 – and has since been joined by the Food Stand- ards Code, Export Control (Prescribed Goods – General) Order 2005, and Export Control (Milk and Milk Products) Order 2005 as a part of a regulatory set that provides the codes and standards for the Australian dairy sector.
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