The Impact of State Capacity on the Duration and Intensity of Civil Wars
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University of Pennsylvania ScholarlyCommons CUREJ - College Undergraduate Research Electronic Journal College of Arts and Sciences 4-2017 Leviathan Lost: The Impact of State Capacity on the Duration and Intensity of Civil Wars Sarah Simon [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://repository.upenn.edu/curej Part of the International Relations Commons, and the Other Political Science Commons Recommended Citation Simon, Sarah, "Leviathan Lost: The Impact of State Capacity on the Duration and Intensity of Civil Wars" 01 April 2017. CUREJ: College Undergraduate Research Electronic Journal, University of Pennsylvania, https://repository.upenn.edu/curej/205. This paper is posted at ScholarlyCommons. https://repository.upenn.edu/curej/205 For more information, please contact [email protected]. Leviathan Lost: The Impact of State Capacity on the Duration and Intensity of Civil Wars Abstract While wars between nations have declined over the past twenty years, intrastate conflicts are on the rise. Scholars are now examining the conditions under which civil war is likely to break out, to last longer, and to intensify, and the strength of the local government has emerged as a critical factor that could potentially mitigate the harms posed by civil wars. This thesis addresses two research questions: what is the impact of state strength on (1) conflict duration and (2) conflict intensity? oT answer these research questions, I conduct several quantitative analyses of all internal conflicts occurring in the years 1960-2015, examining the relationship between state strength and conflict duration and battle deaths per year. This thesis ultimately finds that state strength, as proxied by military, fiscal, and bureaucratic capacities, is negatively correlated with conflict intensity but is positively correlated with conflict duration. This thesis concludes with the presentation of two case studies – the First Congo War and the Troubles of Northern Ireland – to illustrate how strong states may experience longer, but less bloody, civil wars. Keywords political science, civil wars, internal conflict, mixed methods, war, northern ireland, congo, Social Sciences, Political Science, Jessica Stanton, Stanton, Jessica Disciplines International Relations | Other Political Science This article is available at ScholarlyCommons: https://repository.upenn.edu/curej/205 Leviathan Lost The Impact of State Capacity on the Duration & Intensity of Civil Wars Sarah Simon University of Pennsylvania “For by Art is created that great Leviathan called a Commonwealth or State, which is but an artifi- cial Man; though of greater stature and strength than the Natural, for whose protection and defence it was intended … [without the State] there is con- tinual fear, and the danger of violent death; and life of man solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short.” – Thomas Hobbes, Leviathan (1651) 2 Table of Contents Literature Review ����������������������������������������������������������������������������� 4 State Capacity�������������������������������������������������������������������������������5 Conflict Duration ������������������������������������������������������������������������7 Conflict Intensity ������������������������������������������������������������������������9 Theory ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 10 State Capacity & Duration ��������������������������������������������������������12 State Capacity & Intensity ��������������������������������������������������������14 Methodology & Case Studies��������������������������������������������������������� 15 Research Question 1 (Duration) �����������������������������������������������16 Research Question 2 (Intensity) �����������������������������������������������17 Case Selection ����������������������������������������������������������������������������� 18 Statistical Findings ������������������������������������������������������������������������� 18 Duration ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 18 Intensity ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 21 Case Studies ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 23 First Congo War ������������������������������������������������������������������������23 The Troubles ������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 32 Conclusion & Implications ������������������������������������������������������������� 52 Figures & Tables ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 56 References ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 61 Acknowledgements ������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 70 Abstract Leviathan While wars between nations have declined over the past twenty years, intrastate con- flicts are on the rise�, leading scholars to Lost examine the conditions under which civil war is likely to break out, to last longer, and to intensify� The strength of the local The Impact of State Capacity government has emerged as a critical factor on the Duration and that could potentially mitigate the harms posed by civil wars� This thesis addresses Intensity of Civil Wars two research questions: what is the impact of state strength on (1) conflict duration and (2) conflict intensity? To answer these research questions, I conduct several quantitative anal- Sarah Simon yses of all internal conflicts occurring in the University of Pennsylvania years 1960-2015, examining the relationship between state strength and conflict duration and battle deaths per year� This thesis ulti- “For by Art is created that great Leviathan called mately finds that state strength, as proxied by a Commonwealth or State, which is but an artifi- military, fiscal, and bureaucratic capacities, is negatively correlated with conflict intensity cial Man; though of greater stature and strength but is positively correlated with conflict du- than the Natural, for whose protection and defence ration� This thesis concludes with the presen- it was intended … [without the State] there is con- tation of two case studies – the First Congo tinual fear, and the danger of violent death; and life War and the Troubles of Northern Ireland of man solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short.” – to illustrate how strong states may experi- – Thomas Hobbes, Leviathan (1651) ence longer, but less bloody, civil wars� o one is in control� It is very fright- stroyed their mother, remarking, “There’s ening� Power is in the streets, and no doubt in my mind it was brought on the Nit belongs to those with a gun,” stress of what happened�” said a businessman to a journalist from the Despite the similarity of their situa- Associated Press in 1997� In his country, tions, these two citizens were describing an ongoing civil war had spurred trav- lawlessness and violence in two separate el bans from the capital, leading many to civil wars on two different continents� The book plane tickets under false names, and a businessman, Robert Mulamba, spoke to sense of dread had fallen over the city� An- reporters in what was then known as Zaire, other citizen echoed his sentiments, telling known today as the Democratic Republic another journalist how the gunmen had of the Congo� As Mulamba grimly awaited killed his brother: “My mother Florence gunmen in the anarchic streets of Kinsha- heard the shots from the house, and she sa, the civil war in which Ken Funston’s always remembered how she saw two men brother was gunned down was drawing to running away cheering” (O’Boyle, 2017)� a close after decades of violence� Funston He went on to describe how the targeting lived in County Fermanagh in Northern of his brother in the civil war later de- Ireland, which since 1969 had been rocked 4 by sectarian violence in which over 3,000 diers and civilians alike, and those that people, Funston’s brother among them, do not die directly from violence are often would ultimately die� Despite their dra- harmed by the subsequent failure of insti- matically different life circumstances, both tutions, threats to public health, and col- Mulamba and Funston found themselves lapse of the local economy (Imai & Wein- subjected to and terrorized by capricious stein, 2000)� Moreover, civil wars are on and random violence� Despite their dra- the rise: a third of all nations since 1960 matically different countries, both Mulam- have experienced internal conflict of some ba and Funston regarded the rebels with a sort, and intrastate wars have occurred far mixture of hostility and fear� And despite more frequently than have interstate wars the dramatically different levels of polit- over the past seventy years (Blattman & ical development in their countries, both Miguel, 2010; Dosse, 2010)� Mulamba and Funston found themselves In recent years, the civil war literature in the middle of a conflict spurred by mas- has turned away from analyzing the de- sive grievances against the state� Griev- sire to engage in civil war (namely a focus ances against governments are pervasive on economic greed or political grievance) and eternal� But what makes Mulamba and towards an opportunity-based model of Funston’s circumstances unique is these civil war outbreak� This model focuses grievances boiled over in the form of civil on the political opportunity structure in war� place that informs