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Using Behavioral Indicators to Help Detect Potential Violent Acts a Review of the Science Base

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Using Behavioral Indicators to Help Detect Potential Violent Acts a Review of the Science Base CHILDREN AND FAMILIES The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that EDUCATION AND THE ARTS helps improve policy and decisionmaking through ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT research and analysis. HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE This electronic document was made available from INFRASTRUCTURE AND www.rand.org as a public service of the RAND TRANSPORTATION Corporation. INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS LAW AND BUSINESS NATIONAL SECURITY Skip all front matter: Jump to Page 16 POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Support RAND Purchase this document TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY Browse Reports & Bookstore Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore the RAND National Defense Research Institute View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND electronic documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND electronic documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This report is part of the RAND Corporation research report series. RAND reports present research findings and objective analysis that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND reports undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for re- search quality and objectivity. Using Behavioral Indicators to Help Detect Potential Violent Acts A Review of the Science Base Paul K. Davis, Walter L. Perry, Ryan Andrew Brown, Douglas Yeung, Parisa Roshan, Phoenix Voorhies C O R P O R A T I O N NATIONAL DEFENSE RESEARCH INSTITUTE Using Behavioral Indicators to Help Detect Potential Violent Acts A Review of the Science Base Paul K. Davis, Walter L. Perry, Ryan Andrew Brown, Douglas Yeung, Parisa Roshan, Phoenix Voorhies Prepared for the United States Navy Approved for public release; distribution unlimited The research described in this report was prepared for the United States Navy. The research was conducted within the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community under Contract W74V8H-06-0002. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Davis, Paul K., 1952- Using behavioral indicators to help detect potential violent acts : a review of the science base / Paul K. Davis, Walter L. Perry, Ryan Andrew Brown, Douglas Yeung, Parisa Roshan, Phoenix Voorhies. pages cm Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-8330-8092-9 (pbk. : alk. paper) Terrorism—Prevention. 2. Behavioral assessment. 3. Psychology—Methodology. I. Title. HV6431.D3268 2013 363.325'12--dc23 2013024014 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND—make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute.html R® is a registered trademark Cover photo by Karl Baron via flickr © Copyright 2013 RAND Corporation This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see the RAND permissions page (www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.html). RAND OFFICES SANTA MONICA, CA • WASHINGTON, DC PITTSBURGH, PA • NEW ORLEANS, LA • JACKSON, MS • BOSTON, MA DOHA, QA • CAMBRIDGE, UK • BRUSSELS, BE www.rand.org Preface This report reviews the scientific literature relating to observable behav- ioral indicators that might, along with other information, help detect potential attacks, such as those by suicide terrorists or the laying of improvised explosive devices (IEDs). The report is intended to be of interest to officials contemplating future investments amidst tightening budgets, and to researchers and analysts. It deals with individual-level indicators and does not extend to detecting society-level phenomena, such as social movements or insurgent groups. Our research built on prior RAND Corporation efforts, notably: • Walter L. Perry, Claude Berrebi, Ryan Andrew Brown, John Hollywood, Amber Jaycocks, Parisa Roshan, Thomas Sullivan, and Lisa Miyashiro, Predicting Suicide Attacks: Integrating Spatial, Temporal, and Social Features of Terrorist Attack Targets, 2013. • Paul K. Davis and Kim Cragin, eds., Social Science for Counter­ terrorism: Putting the Pieces Together, 2009. • Thomas Sullivan and Walter L. Perry, “Identifying Indicators of Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN) Weapons Development Activity in Sub-National Terrorist Groups,” Journal of Operational Research and Society, Vol. 55, No. 4, April 2004, pp. 361–374. Comments and questions are welcome and can be addressed to Paul Davis in Santa Monica ([email protected]), Ryan Brown in Santa Monica ([email protected]), or Walter Perry in Arlington, Virginia ([email protected]). iii iv Using Behavioral Indicators to Help Detect Potential Violent Acts This report was sponsored by Dr. Ivy Estabrooke, Thrust Man- ager for the Human, Social, Culture and Behavior Modeling program, and Mr. Lee Mastoianni, Thrust Manager for Force Protection, of the Office of Naval Research. The research was conducted within the Inter- national Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and develop- ment center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community. For more information on the RAND International Security and Defense Policy Center, see http://www.rand.org/nsrd/ndri/centers/ isdp.html or contact the director (contact information is provided on the web page). Contents Preface .............................................................................iii Figures .............................................................................ix Tables ..............................................................................xi Summary ........................................................................ xiii Acknowledgments .............................................................. xli Abbreviations .................................................................. xliii CHAPTER ONE Introduction ...................................................................... 1 Background ........................................................................ 1 Scope ................................................................................ 2 Types of Attack, Attacker, and Behaviors .................................... 2 Treatment of Privacy and Civil Liberty Issues ............................... 5 Structure of Approach ............................................................ 5 Recurring Themes ................................................................ 13 Chapter Structure ................................................................ 14 CHAPTER TWO Developing Intent .............................................................. 15 Motivational and Emotional Development ................................... 15 Cognitive and Emotional Underpinnings .................................. 15 Intellectual, Ideological, Religious, and Other Motivations .............. 22 Less Specific Motivations ..................................................... 24 Psychological Convergence ..................................................... 25 Recruitment or Joining .......................................................... 26 Summary Activities and Indicators ............................................ 27 v vi Using Behavioral Indicators to Help Detect Potential Violent Acts CHAPTER THREE Planning and Laying Groundwork .......................................... 29 Development of Strategic Priorities ............................................ 30 Target Identification, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance .... 30 Materiel Acquisition, Testing, and Development ............................ 31 Development of CONOPs ...................................................... 32 Training and Mission Rehearsal ................................................ 32 Long Lead-Time Preparations .................................................. 33 Illustrative Planning Behavioral Indicators ................................... 34 CHAPTER FOUR Immediate Pre-Execution ..................................................... 37 Psychological and Physiological Preparation for Operation ................. 38 Changing Patterns of Social Interaction ...................................... 41 Ritual Practices ..................................................................
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