ENERGY ADVISOR a WEEKLY PUBLICATION of the DIALOGUE December 7, 2018

LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR ENERGY ADVISOR A WEEKLY PUBLICATION OF THE DIALOGUE www.thedialogue.org December 7, 2018

BOARD OF ADVISORS FEATURED Q&A TOP NEWS Nigel Blackaby Global Head, OIL & GAS International Arbitration Group, Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer Can Costa Rica’s ExxonMobil Ups Mary Rose Brusewitz Oil Estimates in Partner, Strasburger & Price ICE Survive Without Guyana by 25% Jeffrey Davidow ExxonMobil said it now expects Senior Counselor, the Stabroek oil block offshore The Cohen Group a Major Reform? Guyana to contain more than five Luis Giusti billion barrels of oil equivalent. It’s Senior Advisor, 25 percent more recoverable oil Center for Strategic & International Studies than previously estimated. Page 2 Jonathan C. Hamilton Partner, White & Case ELECTRICITY Ana Heeren Managing Director, Mexico Suspends FTI Consulting December Power Raul Herrera Partner, Auction Round Corporate & Securities Practice, The country’s electricity regulatory Arnold & Porter The president of Costa Rica’s electricity and telecommunications services provider, Irene body, Cenace, said it had indef- James R. Jones Cañas, in November said the state-owned company is facing high levels of debt. // File Photo: initely suspended the country’s Chairman, Costa Rican Government. fourth long-term power auction, Monarch Global Strategies originally scheduled for Dec. 18. Costa Rica’s electricity and telecommunications services Jorge Kamine Page 2 Counsel, provider, the Costa Rican Institute of Electricity, or ICE, said Skadden Arps in November it projects a loss of 314 billion colones, roughly Craig A. Kelly OIL & GAS Director, Q $525 million, this year, citing low demand for energy and ‘Explicit Nepotism’ Americas Int’l Gov’t Relations, exchange rate volatility as the main causes. Irene Cañas, ICE’s executive Exxon Mobil president, announced plans to end several projects and a new policy of Found in Jamaica’s Jeremy Martin Vice President, Energy & Sustainability, accountability as the state-run company, which maintains a monopoly Petrojam: Report Institute of the Americas in the country’s electricity market, seeks to revitalize its finances. Given Jamaica’s auditor general, Larry Pascal Pamela Monroe Ellis, issued a Costa Rica’s economic troubles, how likely is it that ICE will succeed in Chairman, report that outlined the “explicit Americas Practice Group, boosting its profits and paying its debt? To what extent is ICE’s business acts of nepotism” it discovered Haynes & Boone model failing, and are changes needed to modify it? What should a major in the recruitment processes of Charles Shapiro state-owned oil refinery Petrojam President, reform of ICE look like, and what advantages and disadvantages would and the Petroleum Corporation of World Affairs Council of Atlanta it bring? Jamaica. R. Kirk Sherr Page 2 President, Clearview Strategy Group Juan Manuel Campos Ávila, president and senior consultant Mark Thurber at Ciber Regulación Consultores in San José: “It is very un- Partner, Hunton Andrews Kurth likely that ICE will be able to revert its losses and pay its debt Alexandra Valderrama for various factors that are unlikely to change in the short Manager, A International Government Affairs, and medium terms, particularly the fall in electric demand, the high level Chevron of debt, the high cost of maintaining and operating electric infrastructure Jose L. Valera and its significant loss in the telecommunications market due to the lack Partner, Mayer Brown LLP of new content services to build customer loyalty. Unfortunately, ICE ‘grew Lisa Viscidi old’ along with its personnel, and it has not implemented important and Program Director, structural institutional changes. ICE’s business model has failed. It did Inter-American Dialogue not prepare itself well for changes in the electricity and telecommunications sectors. Political intervention, a lack of internal leadership, the Monroe Ellis // File Photo: Jamai- can Government. Continued on page 3

OIL AND GAS NEWS and rigorous evaluation and pursuit of high-po- NEWS BRIEFS tential, high-risk opportunities in this frontier ‘Explicit Nepotism’ area,” said Neil Chapman, senior vice president Brazil’s Petrobras Forms of ExxonMobil, the Houston Chronicle reported. Venture With Murphy Oil Found in Jamaica’s The first oil production of 120,000 barrels a day is expected in early 2020, and Exxon previously for Gulf Exploration Petrojam: Report said there is potential to generate some $20 Brazilian state oil company Petrobras on Mon- billion in oil revenue per year by 2030. The day said it had closed a joint venture deal with Jamaica’s auditor general on Tuesday issued Guyanese government has been preparing to U.S.-based Murphy Oil to explore deep-water oil a report that alleges officials at the Petroleum become an oil producer, opening a department and gas fields in the Gulf of Mexico, accord- Corporation of Jamaica, or PCJ, and state- of energy within the Ministry of the Presidency ing to a securities filing, Reuters reported. owned oil refiner Petrojam were involved in earlier this year. [Editor’s note: See related Q&A Petrobras, which will have a 20 percent stake in “explicit acts of nepotism” in their recruitment on Guyana’s preparations to become an oil the venture, received $795 million for the deal. processes, The Jamaica Gleaner reported. producer by 2020 in the Sept. 21 issue of the Murphy, which will oversee operations, expects Among the cited examples of nepotism , Audi- Energy Advisor.] to increase its total production in the Gulf of tor General Pamela Monroe Ellis said the man- Mexico to approximately 60,000 net barrels of ager of human resources at Petrojam employed oil equivalent per day. her sibling despite his rejection by an interview Brazilian Prosecutors panel for lack of experience. At PCJ, the audi- Accuse Trading Firms tor general’s office found 11 positions out of Argentina and Russia Sign the 27 reviewed had been filled without being in Petrobras Case advertised, and eight of the officials were hired Nuclear Cooperation Deal without evidence of an official recruitment or Brazilian prosecutors on Wednesday accused Russian state nuclear energy company Rosa- assessment process, according to the report, international commodity trading companies tom on Monday said it had reached a deal with the newspaper reported. The auditor general’s Glencore, Trafigura and Vitol of participating Argentina during the recent G-20 Summit to office discovered similar inconsistencies at the in a scheme that paid more than $30 million partner in nuclear energy, Reuters reported. refiner. Accusations of corruption at Petrojam in bribes to employees at state oil company Officials signed a framework agreement, which forced its general manager, Floyd Grindley, to Petrobras in exchange for business, Folha de do not always lead to actual contracts. Argenti- resign in July. [Editor’s note: See related Q&A S.Paulo reported. It is the latest graft allega- na was also expected to sign a deal with China on corruption scandals involving Petrojam in tion involving the South American country’s at the summit for the Asian country to finance the July 13 issue of the Energy Advisor.] massive “Car Wash” corruption investigation. the construction of a nuclear power plant, but The probe has unveiled the largest corruption no agreement has been announced. scheme in Brazil in decades and has result- Exxon Ups Estimates ed in the imprisonment of former high-level of Recoverable Oil government officials and business executives. Prosecutors allege that Petrobras workers of- Vandalism of Petroperú Offshore Guyana fered the trading companies cheaper prices for Pipeline Causes Oil Spill oil and its derivatives in return for bribes from in the Peruvian Amazon A new discovery off the coast of Guyana has employees of Glencore, Trafigura and Vitol Peruvian state oil state company Petroperú led ExxonMobil and partner Hess Corp. to amounting to some $15.3 million, half of the on Nov. 28 said approximately 8,000 barrels increase their estimates of oil reserves at the total graft uncovered in the case, between 2009 of crude oil had spilled in the Amazon after Stabroek block by 25 percent, the companies and 2014, Reuters reported. Prosecutors did vandals damaged the Norperuano pipeline in said Monday, Reuters reported. Exxon said the not name other companies being investigated. the Loreto region of the rainforest, Reuters re- new Pluma-1 well finding and increased projec- The employees allegedly involved worked at ported. The damage was blamed on members tions from other discoveries led the company Petrobras’ trading desk in Houston and in its of the Mayuriaga indigenous community who to increase its estimate of recoverable oil from headquarters in Rio de Janeiro. Investigators have been protesting recent local elections. four billion barrels of oil equivalent to as much say at least two of the employees still work A spokeswoman for Petroperú said local res- as five billion barrels of oil equivalent. “The at the giant oil firm. Petrobras, Glencore and idents prevented the company from securing discovery of a resource base of more than five Vitol did not respond to Reuters’ request for and stopping the spillage at the pipeline, which billion oil-equivalent barrels in less than four comment. An official from Trafigura said the has been a common target of vandals in the years is testament of our technical expertise company does not comment on legal matters. past two years.

POWER SECTOR NEWS FEATURED Q&A / Continued from page 1

scarce promotion of new talent and especial- Enrique Egloff, president of the Mexico Suspends ly the lack of accountability gave birth to the Costa Rican Chamber of Indus- Electricity Tender institute’s bountiful losses. In recent history, try: “With regard to ICE’s current the debate on the future of ICE has been A situation, the Costa Rican Scheduled for Dec. 18 focused more on emotion than on reality, Chamber of Industry has pointed out that and its executives did not realize they had to although the company basically supplies the Mexico’s electricity regulatory body, known prepare for a structural change. Paradoxical- whole country with renewable energy, this is as Cenace, on Tuesday said it has indefinitely ly, its competitors have only taken advantage not reflected in its cost, and today we have suspended the country’s fourth long-term of the institute’s weaknesses. It is key for electricity price rates that are much higher power auction, originally scheduled to take Costa Rica to begin serious discussions on than they were a decade ago. ICE controls place on Dec. 18, to give the new presidential the future of ICE, considering the possibility 80 percent of the electricity-generation administration time to adjust, El Financiero re- of privatization and a structural separation market, 100 percent of the electricity-trans- ported. In a statement, Cenace said two weeks mission market and, as a group, 80 percent was “insufficient” for staff just taking office of its distribution, which would lead one to familiarize themselves with the auction In recent history, the to think that, with key adjustments, it can process, the newspaper reported. In a separate debate on the future survive the next few years with its financial statement, Alfonso Morcos Flores, the agency’s of ICE has been situation. The traditional, vertically integrat- new director, said the tender will be suspended focused more on ed business model is at risk insofar as the until several government entities could review emotion than price of technological alternatives in which the auction’s scope and objectives. The move the consumer becomes a competitor con- on reality...” comes several days after the new administra- tinues to fall. This situation could worsen if tion of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador — Juan Manuel Campos Ávila the traditional model that transfers costs to took office last Saturday. In his 80-minute price rates continues, instead of accepting inauguration speech, López Obrador blasted that in a competitive system, prices are fixed the “neoliberal” policies of the last 30 years of the energy and telecommunications in relation to the costs. The industrial sector of right-wing administrations, including the sectors with private capital participation believes that we must improve the electricity overhaul of the energy sector that the previous and each sector’s own management. Even market’s legal framework, integration and government of Enrique Peña Nieto carried out, if such changes are not favored, ICE could modernizing laws in the energy sector, so Reuters reported. “Neoliberal economic poli- still capitalize on selling assets (mostly real that it operates as a competition market cies have been a disaster,” López Obrador said. estate) and also drastically reduce personnel in the future. ICE must understand that it “For example, the energy reform, which they for the agency to survive. Meanwhile, it’s already operates in open competition be- said will come to save us, but has only meant clear that the government is trying to create cause of technology, and if it doesn’t make a drop in oil production and a rise in gasoline demand in the electricity sector by elimi- adjustments soon to maintain its prices at a prices,” he added. nating tariffs on electric cars and providing competitive level, it will lose customers and services to Incofer (the state-owned rail au- sales.” thority) for electric reconstruction in Limón ENVIRONMENT NEWS Province. But the real strategic change in ICE René Castro, assistant director could come through supporting high-impact general at the U.N. Food and Costa Rica Offers to projects such as building and operating Agriculture Organization and an electric urban train or subway jointly A former Costa Rica minister of Host U.N. Climate with Incofer. The reform could happen at energy and the environment: “ICE’s finances different levels: from not modifying anything won’t improve if its business model is not Conference in 2019 legally but by downsizing, selling assets and changed. ICE’s organization, its structure closing foreign operations in Nicaragua and and its form of accountability are from Costa Rican President Carlos Alvarado on Honduras, to eventually transforming the another era. When I studied engineering Saturday offered to host the COP25 Climate company into a ‘société anonyme’ of mixed at the University of Costa Rica, we were Change Conference next year, several days capital controlled by a private partner.” taught that electricity, water and telephone after Brazil backed out of organizing the event, Continued on page 6 La Nación reported. “The fight against climate

COPYRIGHT © 2018, INTER-AMERICAN DIALOGUE PAGE 3 LATIN AMERICA ENERGY ADVISOR December 7, 2018 change calls on us to take a step forward,” Alvarado wrote on Twitter. “Our convictions ADVISOR Q&A for our planet are enormous and that’s why Costa Rica announces its consent as a host for the climate change conference.” Environment Will Sanctions Lead to Minister Carlos Manuel Rodríguez later said the government did not know how much organizing Changes in Nicaragua? the event would cost or if the country had the necessary resources, the newspaper reported. U.S. President Donald Trump’s preventive nature against criminal activity Rodríguez said the host country only has to pay administration in late November from individuals involved in corruption, and for 20 percent of the conference’s expenses, slapped sanctions on Nicara- it does account for individuals like those adding that he would hope to finance it with Q guan Vice President and First supporting Ortega. Since the protests, the international financial cooperation. Chile and Lady Rosario Murillo and the country’s evolution of the dictatorship has consist- Guatemala have also expressed their interest in national security advisor, Néstor Moncada. ed of closing doors to dialogue, targeting organizing the event, Emol reported. Brazil had Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said leaders for repression, outlawing dissent won a bid to host the U.N. conference, but the the U.S. government is holding Nicaraguan and protest and now going after nonprofit Brazilian foreign ministry last week announced President Daniel Ortega’s government organizations, think tanks, the media and the it was reversing that decision, citing budgetary accountable for this year’s deadly protests private sector. Nicaragua’s economy is dete- concerns and the presidential transition. Pres- and “widespread corruption.” Will the riorating and is expected to contract by more ident-elect Jair Bolsonaro’s foreign minister, newest sanctions lead to any changes in than 4 percent this year. A continued decline Ernesto Araújo, has previously called climate Nicaragua? Are the sanctions justified, in productivity, employment and investment, change a “Marxist dogma,” O Globo reported. and will they prompt other countries or as well as more pressure is expected to multilateral entities to increase pressure on push the government to negotiate. Although Ortega? Has anything changed in Nicaragua the conflict is a protracted one, insofar as POLITICAL NEWS since anti-government protests began in one side is using repression as engagement, April, and how likely is the situation to be the nonviolent nature of the opposition, the resolved in the coming year? economic deterioration disproportionately López Obrador affecting the government and international Takes Office as Manuel Orozco, director of pressure, dissent will grow in 2019, and the Migration, Remittances the circle of power will slowly continue to Mexico’s President & Development program at weaken to the point of wearing out. The ripe A the Inter-American Dialogue: moment for negotiation will occur during the Andrés Manuel López Obrador was sworn “The sanctions are a byproduct of U.S. year ahead, as the opposition leverages on in Saturday as Mexico’s president and in his policy warnings to the Nicaraguan govern- national and international solidarity with a 80-minute inaugural address vowed “a peaceful ment about the Ortega regime’s abuses of firm stance to hold political reforms while and orderly transition, but one that is deep and authority, human rights and property rights. the regime’s repressive nature loses more radical ... because we will end the corruption The type of sanctions imposed represent a resources and is no longer feared.” and impunity that prevent Mexico’s rebirth,” foreign policy tool that is commensurable to NBC News reported. Mexico’s first leftist the damage and irresponsible actions of the president since the 1970s, López Obrador wore circle of power surrounding Ortega insofar EDITOR’S NOTE: More commentary on this the tricolor presidential sash and during his as these individuals, such as Rosario Murillo, topic appears in the Q&A of the Dec. 5 issue inaugural speech said he would use expanded have been responsible for enabling and put- of the Latin America Advisor. social programs, public works projects, an ting in motion the state repression against apprentice program for millions of youths and Nicaraguan citizens. This tool is of a rather doubled pensions for the elderly to strengthen the state’s role in the economy, The Wall Street regime.” He also reiterated a pledge to call for Vice President Mike Pence and Ivanka Trump, Journal reported. In addition, López Obrador a referendum on his mandate midway through U.S. President Donald Trump’s daughter and blasted the country’s market-oriented policies his six-year term. In his inaugural address in advisor. Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro of the last 35 years as a disaster that failed to the lower house of Mexico’s Congress, López traveled to Mexico City for the ceremony, grow the economy and led to the concentration Obrador spoke to Mexican legislators and ap- but canceled his appearance at the event at of wealth. In the speech, López Obrador vowed proximately 400 foreign guests, including U.S. the last minute. Mexico’s opposition, led by to do “all we can to abolish the neoliberal

NEWS BRIEFS the National Action Party, protested Madu- to independently confirm the report and was ro’s presence in the country, The Wall Street unable to reach Mexico’s Finance Ministry for Uruguay Rejects Former Journal reported. One banner read, “Maduro, comment. On Sunday, López Obrador used his you are not welcome.” In one of his first acts as first full day in office to reiterate his vow to use Peruvian President Mexico’s president, López Obrador signed an military personnel to provide public security, García’s Asylum Request agreement to work with Guatemala, El Salvador the Associated Press reported. Speaking to Uruguay’s government on Monday rejected an and Honduras on an initiative to slow the flow generals at a military installation in Mexico asylum request from former Peruvian Presi- of Central American migrants seeking asylum City, the new president said revamping the mil- dent Alan García, who is being investigated on in the United States, the Associated Press itary is “indispensable” to the goal of making corruption allegations, the Associated Press reported. The plan is designed to address the country safer. López Obrador also enters reported. Uruguayan President Tabaré Vásquez the causes of migration and includes a fund office with political majorities in both cham- said there was no indication that García was to create jobs in the region, Mexico’s Foreign bers of Congress, the first Mexican president to being targeted for political reasons. García had have that since 1997, The Wall Street Journal sought asylum at the Uruguayan ambassador’s reported. His party also won Mexico City’s residence in Lima, but was forced to leave and mayor’s office. later said he would cooperate with authorities.

ECONOMIC NEWS Duque Urges Maximum Fines for Companies Costa Rica’s Alvarado

Involved in Bribery López Obrador // Photo: Facebook page of López Obrador. Signs Tax-Reform Colombian President Iván Duque on Monday Ministry said Saturday. Over the past several Measure Into Law said the country’s trade and industry regulator weeks, caravans of Central Americans have should impose the highest possible sanctions trekked north through Mexico toward the Costa Rican President Carlos Alvarado late on any company involved in taking or paying United States where many are seeking asylum. on Monday signed a controversial tax-reform bribes, Reuters reported. At an event in Bogotá, In his inaugural address, López Obrador made bill that seeks to control the country’s growing Duque said he would not tolerate graft in a gesture toward friendly relations with the fiscal deficit, La Nación reported. The bill was Colombia, adding that companies engaging in United States. “I want to point out that from the approved earlier the same day, with 34 of the corruption were not only committing a criminal day of my election I have received respectful 57 lawmakers voting in favor of the legislation, offense, but also a “serious breach of the right treatment from President Donald Trump, whom as hundreds of opponents gathered outside to competition.” The maximum fine levied by I thank for having sent to this ceremony in a the Legislative Assembly. “With the approval the regulator is 78 billion pesos, or $24 million, message of friendship his daughter Ivanka,” of the reform today, Costa Rica has avoided a Reuters reported. said López Obrador, the Los Angeles Times crisis and takes a step that brings stability and reported. At the ceremony, López Obrador also confidence,” Alvarado wrote on Twitter, adding thanked outgoing President Enrique Peña Nie- that a new era of optimism, hope and certainty Bolivian Court Rules to, thanking him for “not intervening” in the July had begun. The proposal replaces the current Morales Can Run presidential election “unlike other presidents in sales tax of 13 percent with a value-added tax past elections.” However, López Obrador then of the same percentage, which applies levies for Fourth Term blasted some of Peña Nieto’s main initiatives, on some goods and services that had previous- A Bolivian court on Tuesday ruled that Pres- such as education reform and an energy-sector ly been excluded. Costa Rica registered a fiscal ident Evo Morales can seek a fourth term in overhaul. López Obrador has already sought deficit of 6.2 percent of GDP last year, which office in the country’s presidential election to cancel the previous government’s plan would have increased to 7.2 percent had the next year, Agence France-Presse reported. for a new multi-billion-dollar airport to serve bill not been approved, according to the central A chamber of the Supreme Electoral Court Mexico City, a move that sent the peso falling bank. Public-sector workers began a strike approved nine candidates for primary elections and weakened business confidence in Mexico. against the tax reform bill on Sept. 10, which in January, including Morales. Opponents of However, on Sunday, several local news outlets they allege will disproportionately affect lower Morales say his bid for re-election is unconsti- reported that construction on the new airport and middle-class families, the Tico Times re- tutional and have called for a general strike on will continue pending negotiations between the ported. The strikes, which several courts have Thursday to protest the decision. new government and investors in the project, declared illegal, have not been officially lifted, Reuters reported. The wire service was unable but most workers have returned to their jobs.

FEATURED Q&A / Continued from page 3 LATIN AMERICA ENERGY ADVISOR is published weekly by the Inter-American Dialogue Copyright © 2018 companies were natural monopolies. In a serious debate on the future of ICE, to other words, the quality of the services and choose a new model and act. With the coun- Erik Brand their price were controlled. For years, the try hoping to abandon fossil fuels within the Publisher [email protected] telecommunications monopoly allowed next two decades, ICE could be one of the for energy subsidies. When the monopoly main actors in providing renewable energy. Gene Kuleta Editor ceased as technology advanced, we tried But the levels of investment needed would [email protected] the impossible: maintaining the status quo be huge. Other actors could supply small Anastasia Chacón González electric recharging stations. It would also be Reporter convenient to explore other energy options, [email protected] such as hydrogen. Finally, ICE must make If we don’t modernize the transition away from a monopoly, a move ICE, we will be that requires flexible laws and capitalization. Michael Shifter, President squandering the social I can’t predict whether such a measured Genaro Arriagada, Nonresident Senior Fellow savings and financial and serious discussion is possible in Costa Bruno Binetti, Nonresident Senior Fellow capacity of the Rica’s current environment. But if we do not Sergio Bitar, Nonresident Senior Fellow company...” modernize ICE, we will be squandering the Joan Caivano, Director, Special Projects — René Castro social savings and financial capacity of the Michael Camilleri, Director, Peter D. Bell Rule of company, which continues to be good state Law Program institution that the majority of Costa Ricans Kevin Casas-Zamora, Nonresident Senior Fellow cherish.” Ariel Fiszbein, Director, Education Program Peter Hakim, President Emeritus with legal maneuvers and subsidizing tele- Editor’s Note: In a statement to the Advisor, Claudio Loser, Senior Fellow communications with the enormous cash the Costa Rican Institute of Electricity, or Nora Lustig, Nonresident Senior Fellow flow—not profits—coming from the energy ICE, said in part, “ICE this year has main- Margaret Myers, Director, Asia and Latin America Program sector that remained monopolistic. The tained a positive balance in its operations. Manuel Orozco, Director, Migration telecommunications revolution soon showed Commercial operations of the company have Remittances & Development that the theory of a ‘natural monopoly’ was registered a surplus, and there are financial Jeffrey Puryear, Senior Fellow a myth and that it wouldn’t be possible to forecasts to deal with the debt incurred. The Tamar Solnik, Director, Finance & Administration maintain cross-subsidies in such indepen- query refers to our projected financial results, Lisa Viscidi, Director, Energy Program dent businesses. It also made evident that which have been affected by the expenses of Denisse Yanovich, Director, Development and it would have been necessary to capitalize the Diquís project, the increase in costs and External Relations on the business, instead of solely oper- exchange-rate fluctuations. ICE is deter- Latin America Energy Advisor is published ating with loans and fees based on costs mined to take advantage of [new technology] weekly, with the exception of some major plus administration, and almost without opportunities, which is why we are promoting U.S. holidays, by the Inter-American Dialogue considering market prices. ICE achieved changes to make our services more efficient, 1155 15th Street NW, Suite 800 Washington, DC 20005 Phone: 202-822-9002 extraordinary goals in telecommunications agile and timely, deepen transparency in our www.thedialogue.org and energy coverage, reaching almost 100 management and encourage a results-orient- ISSN 2163-7962 percent of the population, but it was less ed business culture.” successful in offering competitive prices. An Subscription Inquiries are welcomed at antiquated model and the short-sightedness The Advisor welcomes comments on its Q&A [email protected] of the sector’s union keep the company in section. Readers can write editor Gene Kuleta The opinions expressed by the members of the Board of Advisors and by guest commentators do not necessarily a complicated situation. Costa Rica needs at [email protected]. represent those of the publisher. The analysis is the sole view of each commentator and does not necessarily represent the views of their respective employers or firms. The information in this report has been obtained from reliable sources, but neither its accuracy and completeness, nor the opinions based thereon, are guaranteed. If you have any questions relating to the contents of this publication, contact the editorial offices of the Inter-American Dialogue. Contents of this report may not be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted without prior written permission from the publisher.