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Russian Economic Reform Russian Economic Reform Attempts to portray the reform of the Russian economy as a disaster are misleading because they fail to take account of the complexities of the transition from socialism to capitalism. Russum Economic Reform brings a coherent view to the Russian transition, by focusing on the actual pre-reform conditions including the widespread private, informal economic activity. The framework that emerges highlights the similarities among many seemingly disparate aspects of the reforming Russian economy- from infla­ tion to organized crime, from barter to military conversion. Throughout the emphasis is on real economic activity, rather than on formal plans for economic reform and the individuals behind them. Perceptions of the pre-reform Russian economy are often inaccurate, primarily because the logic of a centrally planned economy is so different from a capitalist one that familiar economic phenomena, such as unemployment and inflation, take unfamiliar forms. Likewise, conventional statistics such as Gross National Product measured different things in socialist economies than they did in capitalist ones. Staggering amounts of black market and hidden private econo­ mic activity contribute to the difficulties in gauging the pre-reform state of affairs. The misconceptions about the starting point for Russian economic reform that result lead to an exaggeration of the costs of transition. Many of the costs associated with the transition process are not new, though during the reform process they may be borne in different forms and by different people. Mean­ while some of the costs which are new are the result of either partial reform measures or new problems caused by regional political upheavals. The short­ term benefits of reform also tend to be exaggerated, however, due to an insufficient accounting of the pre-reform market economy. Written in an accessible and lively style throughout, Russian Economic Refonn sheds much new light both on changes within Russia and on the transition process in general. It will be essential reading for social scientists, college students and others interested in the economic transitions of the formerly-socialist world. Jim Leitzel is Associate Professor of Public Policy Studies and Economics at Duke University. Acknowledgements Chapter 6, 'Monopoly', closely follows my article, 'A Note on Monopoly and Russian Economic Reform', that appeared in Communist Economies and Economic Transformation 6: 45-53, 1994. It is republished here with the permission of the Carfax Publishing Company, 875-81 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA. An earlier version of the sidebar 'Parking and Perestroika' served as the first draft of an op-ed article that I wrote with Michael Alexeev and Clifford Gaddy, published in the journal of Commerce, April 14, 1992, under the title, 'When Parking Meets Perestroika'. Tbe Brookings Review, a quarterly publication of The Brookings Institution, published two short articles, that I co-authored with Michael Alexeev and Clifford Gaddy, 'Getting the Picture Right: Soviet Collapse, Transition Troubles, and Western Aid' (Winter 1992, pp. 14-17), and 'Mafiosi and Matrioshki, Organized Crime and Russian Reform' (Winter 1995, pp. 26-29). Early drafts of some of the material in this book served as a basis for those articles. Other material is drawn from 'Russian Economic Reform: Is Economics Helpful?', Eastern Economic Journal, 10, Summer 1993. This book was begun when I was a National Fellow at the Hoover Institution on War, Revolution, and Peace, Stanford, California, during 1991-92. Many thanks to the Hoover Institution, and in particular Tom Henriksen and Wendy Minkin, for their support. Financial assistance from the National Council for Soviet and East European Research, for which I am grateful, contributed to this research. Comments on draft material were supplied by many individuals, including Michael Alexeev, Charles Clotfelter, Lydia Faulkner, Clifford Gaddy, Craufurd Goodwin, Simon Johnson, LynnErin McNeil, Kimberly Neuhauser, Will Pyle, Gertrude Schroeder, the late Jill Stuart, Vladimir Treml, and Erik Weisman. My deepest appreciation to them all. This book is dedicated to my parents. Russian Economic Reform Jim Leitzel First published 1995 by Routledge Published 2017 by Routledge 2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN 711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017, USA Routledge is an imprint ofthe Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business Copyright© 1995 Jim Leitzel Typeset in Garamond by LaserScript, Mitcham, Surrey The Open Access version of this book, available at www.tandfebooks.com, has been made available under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives 4.0 license. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. Library ofCongress Cataloging in Publication Data Leitzel, Jim. Russian economic reform/Jim Leitzel. p.cm. Includes bibliographical references (p. ) and index. ISBN 0--415-12510--3. - ISBN 0--415-12511-1 1. Russia (Federation)- Economic policy-1991- . 2. Soviet Union Economic conditions. 3. Post-communism - Economic aspects - Russia (Federation). I. Title. HC340.12.L45 1994 338.947 - dc20 94-24768 CIP ISBN 978-0-415-12510-9 (hbk) ISBN 978-0-415-12511-6 (pbk) Publisher's Note The publisher has gone to great lengths to ensure the quality of this reprint but points out that some imperfections in the original may be apparent Contents Preface viii An economic excursion viii Introduction 1 1be destination ofRussian economic reform 1 The theme 3 Implicit versus explicit 4 Partial reform 5 Pre-reform statistics 7 Statistics and reform 10 Limits to understanding 12 Tbe path ahead 13 1 Markets and plans 15 Econ 101 15 Soviet &on 101 18 1be myth ofthe plan 21 Sufficient reforms? 25 More on the path ahead 26 2 Russian market activity 27 Soviet-era market behaviour 27 Market behaviour durlng reform 29 Spontaneous privatization 30 More private activity 33 Costs ofdoing business 34 Conducting business in transitional Russia 35 Agriculture 38 Conclusions 39 The Russian economic paradox 40 Organized crime 41 vi Contents 3 Price liberalization and inflation 46 Transition Econ 101 46 Inflation, repressed and open 47 One-time price increases versus continuing infla,tion 49 Costs ofopen inflation 50 Costs of repressed infla,tion 52 Inflation costs andprice liberalization 54 Distributional impacts 55 Alternatives to price liberalization 56 Comparing strategies to combat repressed inflation 57 Causes of inflation 59 Budget deficits and inflation during transition 60 Credible disinflation 63 Parking and perestroika 64 Are roubles worthless? 66 4 Employment and unemployment 69 Introduction 69 The labour sector under the ancien regime 70 From implicit to explicit unemployment 75 Partial reforms and economic distortions 79 Enterprise debt 81 Lessons for reform 83 Distribution again 85 Real wages 87 Misleading unemployment statistics 88 S Privatization 91 Introduction 91 Privatization guidelines 92 Pre-reform property rights 93 The reform period 95 Official Russian privatization 97 6 Monopoly 100 Introduction 100 Measuring monopoly 101 Monopoly rents, pre- and post-reform 103 Monopoly and privatization 105 Anti-monopoly policy 107 7 Income and living standards 109 Crisis, chaos, collapse ... 109 Measuring living standards 112 Contents vii GNP and living standards in the former Soviet Union 116 Central planning and the measurement of GNP 118 RusS'ian incomes during the transition 121 Moscow and St. Petersburg 123 Distribution revisited 124 Perceptions of decline 126 Barter 127 The socialist vice 130 8 False hopes 134 Military conversion 134 Rouble convertibility 138 Western aid 141 Gradual reform, Chinese style 145 Conclusions 148 Conclusions 150 Notes 153 Bibliography 175 Index 185 Preface AN ECONOMIC EXCURSION A quaint Russian tradition governs the preparation for a journey. Imme­ diately prior to embarking, travellers sit down to observe a brief moment of silence. The enforced calm provides a gentle counterpoint to the coming commotion and locomotion of travel. Russia has now embarked on a monumental collective journey, that between socialism and capitalism. Perhaps the 'period of stagnation', as the late 1970s and early 1980s came to be known in Russia, represented the quiet moment that signalled the initiation of economic relocation. Imagine all of Russia sitting in silence in a huge living room, or more appropriately, around a large-scale kitchen table, scene of so many conversations with friends and family. What would be going through the minds of the apprentice travellers? Hospitality is another cherished Russian tradition. At such a large table they would surely make room for unexpected visitors. This book represents my thoughts on the journey that the Russians are undertaking. I reflect on the starting point, the final destination, and potential transitional paths between today's and tomorrow's Russian economies. In the process, I hope to demon­ strate that not all transitional paths are 'just as fair', and to illuminate desir­ able properties of reform programmes. The stakes involved in choosing the best reform path are immense, with the lives and livelihoods of 150 million Russian citizens riding in the balance. Nor is the Russian journey a matter of indifference for those beyond Russian borders. There are humanitarian concerns. There is also self-interest, as the potential instability of a military superpower lends global significance to Russian economic reform. The humility
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