Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development

NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK

A Report by the Advisory Committee on

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O L W A Agricultural Resilience in Nigeria E I N W G G A G IN R AT IC RE EDITED BY JIMMY ADEGOKE, CHIDI IBE AND ADEBISI ARABA ULTURE, C Copyright © 2015 Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Nigeria

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Cover Picture: Norman Borlaug heat- and drought-tolerant tropical wheat variety, developed by the Lake Chad Research Institute, Maiduguri. Photo by Adebisi Araba Editors: Jimmy Adegoke, Chidi Ibe and Adebisi Araba.

Editing, design and layout by Green Ink (www.greenink.co.uk)

Printed in the Federal Republic of Nigeria i

Ministerial Foreword I am pleased to write the are aggressively deploying innovative financing foreword to this report by mechanisms, such as the Nigeria Incentive-based Risk the Advisory Committee on Sharing for Agricultural Lending, which is providing Agricultural Resilience in credit guarantees to commercial banks for increased Nigeria (ACARN), which I had lending as well as the Fund for Agricultural Financing the honour of inaugurating in Nigeria, a private fund, jointly set up by the in September 2013. It is a Governments of Nigeria and Germany to raise private fulfilment of a long held capital for funding in agriculture. These mechanisms idea that could not wait any will scale up the needed financing for the sector. longer! Third, to reduce some of the risks borne by farmers, To assure food and nutritional security, eradicate the focus is currently on developing the mechanisms rural poverty and create social stability, policies and for establishing weather index insurance schemes institutions are needed to enhance the ability of for farmers. Current programmes to improve the individuals, households and production systems to density of operational weather stations in the country, recover from the impact of shocks and stresses on the thereby, improving weather forecasting models, are agriculture sector induced by the changing climate. complementing this effort. This National Agricultural Resilience Framework is written in response to that need. It offers a well- Fourth, social safety net policies are being used articulated national policy on short and long-term to reduce vulnerability, especially for women and strategies to reduce food and nutrition vulnerability, children. These include conditional cash transfers, while enhancing environmental resilience. school feeding programmes and nutritional interventions. The ‘Saving one million lives’ initiative The long-term solution to food insecurity is to raise targets the use of community management of acute agricultural productivity and boost food production. malnutrition and integrated child feeding to reduce Nigeria embarked on a major transformation of its under-nutrition. Regional food reserves are also being agriculture sector with the launch of the Agricultural supported. In 2012, for example, Nigeria contributed Transformation Agenda in 2011 that is anchored 32,000 metric tonnes of grains to support Niger in the philosophy of treating agriculture business Republic to address food shortages. rather than a development programme. Our goal is to add 20 million metric tonnes of food to the Other policies in furtherance of agricultural resilience domestic food supply by 2015 and to create 3.5 in Nigeria are contained in this report and will be million jobs. We are driving import substitution by progressively implemented. I salute the distinguished accelerating the production of local food staples, to members of the ACARN who produced this reduce dependence on food imports and turn Nigeria outstanding report. I am also pleased to acknowledge into a net exporter of food. To this end, we have many other contributors within and outside Nigeria, introduced several major innovations as part of the including senior officials and advisors within my ongoing fundamental restructuring of the agricultural ministry and other government agencies. I wish to landscape in Nigeria. especially thank Professors Jimmy Adegoke and Chidi Ibe for their patriotism, selfless service and outstanding First, to assure increased agricultural productivity, leadership as ACARN Chair and Co-Chair, respectively. it is critical that farmers get access to affordable agricultural inputs. In Nigeria, the first ever database of I have no doubt that this report will have an enduring farmers in the country was launched as a basis for the impact on agricultural production in Nigeria because efficient and effective distribution of subsidized seeds it provides a clear road map for achieving resilience and fertilizers through mobile phones in 2012 as part in the agriculture sector and offers pertinent policy of the Growth Enhancement Scheme. This stimulated recommendations that will strengthen the capacity wider markets for agricultural inputs, agricultural of small- and large-scale agricultural producers productivity and food production rose by 21 million to increase productivity, grow wealth and thrive metric tonnes in 2014. in the face of growing challenges from multiple environmental stressors and changing climate. Second, the agricultural revolution is being complemented with a financial revolution. We Akinwumi Ayodeji Adesina (PhD.) CON Contents

Foreword...... i Acknowledgements...... iv Executive Summary ...... v 1 .Introduction ...... 1 . . 2 . Nigeria’s Changing Climate: Risks, Impacts and Adaptation ...... 7 . . 3 . Enhancing the Natural Resource Base . . . .19 . 4 . Climate Change Adaptation in Agricultural Planning ...... 31 . . 5 . Research and Development for Climate- Resilient Agriculture...... 41 6 . Improving Agricultural Extension Services . . . 55 7 . Policy Support for Agricultural Resilience . . 65. 8 . Financing for Climate-Resilient Agriculture . . . 85 9 . Monitoring and Evaluation ...... 99 . 10 .Conclusions and Recommendations . . . .111 . Annexes 1 . Acronyms and Abbreviations ...... 117 2 . Definition of Key Terms and Concepts . . . 119 . 3 . Chapter Author Attributions ...... 122 . 4 . ACARN Membership ...... 123 . iii

Boxes, Figures and Tables

Box 1.1 Recommendations in the NASPA-CCN for Box 7.2 Micro check dams for water harvesting on Building National Adaptive Capacity and seasonal streams Resilience in the Agriculture Sector Box 7.3 Agricultural diversification through Box 1.2 The NARF’s strategic objectives innovative strategies in aquaculture Box 2.1 Climate projections for Nigeria Box 7.4 Run-off water harvesting and soil moisture retention technology Box 2.2 Effective adaptation strategies Box 7.5 A pilot strategic investment framework for Box 4.1 The role of government institutions in sustainable land managementin Cross River climate change adaptation State Box 4.2 The role of the private sector in climate Box 7.6 Linking farmers to markets: key lessons change adaptation Box 7.7 Social protection measures Box 4.3 The role of CSOs in climate change adaptation Box 9.1 Building Nigeria’s Response to Climate Change (BRNCC) Box 4.4 Framework for the adaptation of West African agriculture to climate change Box 9.2 Climate change, agriculture and food security Box 4.5 The role of development partners in climate change adaptation Box 9.3 IFAD’s Adaptation for Smallholder Agriculture Programme Box 5.1 Research priorities for vulnerability, targeting and institutions Figure 2.1 Rainfall variability in Nigeria (1952–2012 national average) Box 5.2 Research priorities for agriculture management systems Figure 2.2 Temperature variability in Nigeria (1952–2012 national average) Box 5.3 Examples of crop breeding for resilience in Nigeria Figure 2.3 Rainfall distribution across major agro-ecological zones of Nigeria Box 5.4 Research priorities for crop, livestock and fisheries breeding Figure 2.4 Projected changes in crop yields in Nigeria by 2050 Box 5.5 Technologies for improved post-harvest management Figure 3.1 Watersheds in Nigeria Box 5.6 Research priorities for post-harvest Figure 3.2 Location of Nigeria’s existing meteorological management observing stations Box 5.7 Research priorities for landscapes and Figure 8.1 Top 10 recipients of climate finance ecosystems Table 6.1 Extension staffing in Nigeria Box 5.8 Research priorities for climate data and Table 6.2 Priority recommendations knowledge systems Table 8.1 Existing international financing mechanisms Box 5.9 Research priorities for institutions and to in support of climate-resilient agriculture in build capacity Nigeria Box 6.1 Actions for capacity building Table 9.1 Biophysical parameters prioritized for the Box 6.2 Planting date and maize-management ACARN M&E forecasting Table 9.2 Framework for baseline assessments for M&E Box 6.3 Participatory weather forecasting: Lessons Table 9.3 Recommended milestones and indicators from Ghana for climate-resilient agriculture in Nigeria Box 7.1 Policy areas for improving resilience Table 9.4 NASRDA projects iv NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK

Acknowledgements

This report was prepared by the Advisory Committee The various chapters of the report benefited on Agricultural Resilience in Nigeria (ACARN), a group immensely from the research, writing and editorial constituted by the Honourable Minister, Federal contributions of various persons as follows: Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development The overall supervision and detailed editorial work (FMARD), Dr Akinwumi Adesina and inaugurated on was accomplished by the team of Professor Jimmy 17 September 2013. Membership of the Committee Adegoke, Professor Chidi Ibe and Dr Adebisi Araba. was drawn from distinguished experts on the subject matter from Nigeria, Africa and beyond including The team is especially grateful to the five external senior functionaries from the World Bank, the African reviewers (Professors Olukayode Oladipo and Andaover Tarhule for Chapters 1–5 and Drs Sule Development Bank and the Consultative Group on Bassi, Sylvester Osagie and John Padgham for International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) with Chapters 6–10) for their incisive comments even if Professor Jimmy Adegoke as Chair and Professor Chidi we were unable to integrate all of them. Ibe as Co-Chair. High-level functionaries from the FMARD and relevant governmental organizations were Dr Raffaello Cervigni, Lead Environmental admitted as ex-officio members. Economist for Africa at the World Bank, Washington DC, provided references and technical The study went through an iterative consultation advice during the inception workshop and mid- process, the first of which took place during a series of term review, while Ms Marjorie-Ann Bromhead, Town Hall type meetings in the six geopolitical zones World Bank Consultant, made useful comments of the country. The Committee benefited from the during the final drafting of the report. frank and lively discussions and insightful comments The Honourable Minister of Agriculture kept a and suggestions received during these workshops catalysing interest in the progress of the study from representatives of government ministries, and, together with the Permanent Secretary of the departments and agencies; academic institutions; FMARD, provided valuable guidance and support national and international research institutes; non- at various stages of the study. governmental organizations and farmers’ groups. The administrative and technical support of the ACARN Secretariat under the direction of Mr Damilola Eniaiyeju, Director of Extension Services at the FMARD, and incorporating Messrs Abel Adebayo, Okunlaya Adekunle, Abayomi Aina, Daniel Odogbo, Abayomi Aina, Wale Fasade, Okunlaya Adekunle, Gani Garuba, Daniel Odogbo and Haruna Yusuf, provided invaluable assistance in the course of these meetings. Mr Yarama Ndirpaya of the Agricultural Research Council of Nigeria (ARCN) provided excellent service as Hausa language translator at several of the Town Hall meetings. v

Executive Summary

Globally, agriculture is the mainstay of most leading player in global food markets to grow wealth well planned economies because it contributes for millions of farmers”. significantly to the national gross domestic product To support the national ATA programme and (GDP), creates employment, provides food for strengthen national capacity to respond effectively human sustenance, raw materials for industry and to the challenges of climate change, the FMARD earns foreign exchange. Nigeria is blessed with launched an initiative in 2013 to develop a roadmap abundant agricultural resources spanning several for implementing climate-resilient agriculture based agro-ecological zones. Nigeria’s total land area is on innovative agricultural production strategies and 92.3 million ha with a cultivable area estimated risk management mechanisms to promote resilience at 84 million ha, which is 91% of the total area. in the agriculture sector. The Minister invited Forests account for 13% of the land area. Most of leading experts on climate impacts, agricultural the country’s land area is fertile and conducive for systems and global food security to constitute the growing a wide range of crops and raising livestock. Advisory Committee on Agricultural Resilience in Nigeria’s 853-km coastline along the Gulf of Guinea Nigeria (ACARN). The Committee’s duty is make is a gateway to a vast ocean, which, together with recommendations, based on informed expertise ample fresh water resources provided by the Niger and research, to inform policies that will strengthen and Benue river systems, affords tremendous the capacity of small- and large-scale agricultural potential for fisheries and aquaculture. Nigeria took producers to increase productivity, grow wealth advantage of these resources to establish itself as and thrive in the face of growing challenges from an agricultural powerhouse in the 1960s. According multiple environmental stressors and changing to statistics from the United Nations Food and climate. Agriculture Organization (FAO), by 1961 the country accounted for 42% of global trade in groundnut oil The methodology adopted by the ACARN in this and 18% of cocoa. In addition, Nigeria hosted 27%of study was to use a mix of expert consultations and the world’s palm oil industry. The country was also ‘Town Hall’ style meetings with farmers, the River self-sufficient in food production before the discovery Basin Organization functionaries and staff of the of oil in the 1960s. Nigerian Agricultural Research System to distil the priority risks to the agriculture sector posed by Although the Federal Government relies on crude climate change, to enquire into the most suitable oil for more than two thirds of its revenue, Nigeria’s strategies and technologies for overcoming or coping biggest economic sector is agriculture, which with such risks, and to make recommendations as accounts for 44% of GDP and 70% of employment. appropriate that will lead either to their resolution or Agriculture is intricately linked with many sectors of containment. the economy and is essential for the broad-based growth necessary for development. A major policy The introductory chapter makes a case for the thrust of the Government of His Excellency, the eminence accorded to agriculture and agricultural President and Commander in Chief of the Armed resilience. It derives from the intrinsic capacity of agriculture to catalyse other sectors of economic Forces of Nigeria, Dr Goodluck Ebele Jonathan is the development, a process described by the ACARN Agricultural Transformation Agenda (ATA), through member and Director of Agriculture for Impact, Sir which the Federal Government plans to add at least Gordon Conway, as “a virtuous circle”. In this context, 20 million metric tonnes of food to the national increased agricultural productivity banishes rural supply and 3.5 million new jobs in the agriculture poverty, stimulates the rural economy by creating sector by 2015. The ATA is a deliberate, bold and small businesses and employment and results in the carefully crafted programme of the Federal Ministry development of roads that link rural economies to of Agriculture and Rural Development (FMARD) under urban areas and, ultimately, to vibrant import and the leadership of the Hon. Minister of Agriculture export markets anchored on free trade. and Rural Development, Dr Akinwumi Adesina, to “achieve a hunger-free Nigeria through an agriculture Chapter 2 deals with the methodological sector that drives income growth, accelerates approaches and results of the modelling of various achievement of food and nutritional security, scenarios of vulnerabilities to the impacts of climate generates employment and transforms Nigeria into a change within the agriculture sector in Nigeria by vi NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK various researchers, both within and outside the of vulnerability and the appropriateness, including country. It tests the validity of the assumptions that costs and benefits, of a range of potential options served as inputs into the modelling process and for action. It also requires the availability of critical concludes that, despite the lack of refinement in agricultural inputs, including insurance and credit, some of the studies, there is every reason for the to enable farmers to make and implement the right emphasis and urgency on building agricultural choices. These aspects fall within the responsibility resilience. It submits that this should be done within of agricultural extension services, which receive the remit of a low-carbon economy. considerable attention in Chapter 6. It is not an exaggeration to say that accelerated growth in Chapter 3 describes how a safe and flourishing agricultural output cannot be maintained without natural environment is an essential base for adequate investments in rural infrastructure and successful and productive agriculture. Unlike other agricultural research and extension. production sectors of the economy, agriculture is a renewable resource deeply anchored on the ability Chapter 7 explores and recommends the of ecosystems to continue to provide their known policy options that will underpin the successful goods and services. The chapter considers the status implementation of the recommendations of this of the natural resource base and recommends what Report and make for the general well-being of should be done to enhance it in support of resilient the agriculture sector. They include important and agriculture in Nigeria. It insists that agricultural ongoing FMARD development initiatives that need practice must take account of the role of the natural to be reinforced to reduce vulnerability to climate environment and develop solutions that are in change, such as promoting agricultural markets, harmony with nature. minimizing or eliminating distortions in agricultural policies that will exacerbate climate change impacts, Chapter 4 dwells on the necessity to mainstream enhancing social protection and microfinance, climate change adaptation into agricultural policy preparing for disasters, insurance and, critically, and practice. It discusses the most cost-efficient and mainstreaming climate change in agricultural policies effective methods of achieving this process with a and practice. This chapter describes additional view to climate-proofing agriculture. It describes the development issues that are critical to agricultural adaptation–mitigation nexus and argues that the production, processing, storage, marketing and trade. best approach to adaptation is via technologies and It stresses the value chain approach as the only viable strategies that produce the maximum mitigation option to increase development of the agriculture benefits. It ends with a discussion of viable governance sector as well as for its sustainability. models that will entrench an adaptation culture and promote a preference for climate-resilient agriculture. Financing for climate-resilient agriculture is a core issue in the drive for agricultural resilience to the Chapter 5 explains how investment in agricultural impacts of the changing climate. Globally, the costs research and adoption of new technologies of adaptation (and resilience) are colossal. Still, it is can provide a quantum leap in productivity and recognized that there are no alternatives to tackling concomitant economic growth, as achieved during the problem head on. While this may be challenging the Green Revolution of the 1960s that kick-started to developed countries, it is a herculean task for the economies of the Asian Tigers and placed them developing countries like Nigeria because of low on a solid path to sustainable development. It stresses adaptive capacities and a weak economic base. the necessity to transform the research management Chapter 8 explores innovative financing options for structure in Nigeria along the lines of Brazil’s EMBRAPA building agricultural resilience to the changing climate model, in which research is both demand- and in Nigeria, and concludes that they are “doable” given profit-driven. The imperative to re-engineer the the right enabling environment and commitment. Agricultural Research Council of Nigeria (ARCN) from a coordinating to a managerial Council and a Without effective monitoring and evaluation (M&E), corresponding overhaul of its present structures is there can be no systematic pathway to assessing stressed. the development and impact of social learning and behavioural change in the adoption of climate- Successful adaptation require a dissection of climate resilient agricultural practices and methodologies. impacts to understand the risks they pose and Mainstreaming this good practice within the the degree of certainty with which predictions are Nigerian agricultural landscape will further entrench made, as well as assessing the various dimensions the gains of climate-resilient agriculture in the vii agriculture value chain in the country. Chapter 9 architecture for planning, programme formulation makes recommendations for preferred approaches and implementation support across institutions with to successful M&E, including participatory methods mandates relating to the many dimensions of food of data collection that will engender new insights security, poverty eradication, sustainable development into people’s needs for project planning and and climate change. implementation. Whereas the present report presents a framework for Many stresses and shocks are interlinked, for example, achieving agricultural resilience, the greater challenge energy and input price volatility, extreme weather is its implementation. Scoping an implementation plan events and climate change, growing scarcity of that would encapsulate the building of competencies natural resources and poverty, inequality and within the FMARD to routinely undertake the implied unsustainable population growth. Policies must tasks is the next logical undertaking for the ACARN. factor these competing challenges. Also important Paramount in the scheme of competencies will be is the necessity for clear role assignments and the ability within the FMARD to continuously and cohesion among the various ministries, departments successfully model the vulnerabilities of the agro- and agencies of government, the private sector, ecological systems to the vagaries of climate change. development partners, non-governmental and This will enable a continuous refinement of the community-based organizations and agricultural strategies and agro-technologies made available communities. In the concluding chapter, we stress through research for management of climate risk for the need for harmonization and restructuring of the resilience in agriculture.

1 Introduction 2 NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK

1.1 Why is Agricultural 1.2 The National Climate Resilience Important? Change Adaptation

It is now widely accepted that climate change poses Strategy and Action a significant and serious global threat to sustained economic growth, agricultural development, poverty Plan for Climate reduction, food security and political stability. These Change in Nigeria threats are compounded by repeated spikes in food prices, which have created a growing food crisis Current and anticipated environmental and climate- in many parts of the world, high prices for fossil related changes will devastate Nigeria’s national fuels and fertilizers, an increase in environmental economy if adequate response plans and mitigation degradation, and competition for food and water strategies are not put into place urgently. The recently (Montpellier Panel, 2012). Nowhere are these completed National Climate Change Adaptation challenges more marked than in Africa, where two Strategy and Action Plan for Climate Change in Nigeria thirds of all available land is classified as desert or dry (NASPA-CCN) indicates that climate change is already land. having significant impacts in Nigeria, and that these are expected to increase in the future (BNRCC, 2011). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Recent estimates suggest that without any adaptation (IPCC) identifies Africa as the continent most measures, climate change could cause losses of vulnerable to climate change and variability. The between 2% to 11% of Nigeria’s GDP by 2020. These International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) estimates could rise to between 6% and 30% by 2050, estimates that by 2050, the combined effect of equivalent to between N15 and N69 trillion (US$100 increasing temperatures, declining rainfall and more to US$460 billion). These are the result of a wide range frequent floods and droughts could result in average of climate change impacts that affect all economic rice yields falling by up to 14%, wheat by up to 22% sectors in Nigeria, with agriculture being the most and maize by up to 5%. Based on these estimates, vulnerable. food availability in sub-Saharan Africa will be cut by The NASPA-CCN proposes the key adaptation 500 calories per person – a 21% decline (IFPRI, 2009). measures and action points needed to minimize these Agriculture in Africa is especially vulnerable to risks, improve local and national adaptive capacity climate change and variability because of its high and resilience, make the most of any opportunities dependence on seasonal rainfall. In Nigeria – Africa’s created by climate change, and facilitate collaboration most populous country and second largest economy with the global community. These will all help – agriculture accounts for nearly 40% of the country’s to reduce Nigeria’s vulnerability to the negative gross domestic product (GDP). More than 70% of the impacts of climate change. Box 1.1 highlights specific economically active population and their dependents recommendations for the agriculture sector. (over 100 million people) rely on agriculture for their These recommendations are supported by other livelihoods. studies, including two recent country-specific Country-specific observations from studies studies by the World Bank – Toward Climate Resilient conducted in recent decades show that various parts Development in Nigeria and Low Carbon Development: of Nigeria have already experienced the impacts Opportunities for Nigeria (Cervigni et al., 2013a, of climate change. These include accentuated 2013b). These studies identify further new and droughts, severe floods and increased occurrence innovative adaptation measures for the agriculture and intensity of storm surges, with concomitant sector, such as: flooding, coastal erosion, the salinization of fresh changes in agricultural practices to improve soil water aquifers, and variability in the availability of fertility and enhance carbon sequestration fisheries resources (Adefolalu, 1986; Adegoke et changes in agricultural water management for al., 2010; Ibe, 1990; Ibe and Ojo, 1994; NFNC, 2003; more efficient water use Oladipo, 1993). Projections of future climate trends suggest that global warming may further aggravate improved spatial targeting of investments these problems (Abiodun et al., 2012, 2013; Cervigni agricultural diversification toward enhanced et al., 2013a). climate resilience CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 3

Box 1.1 Recommendations in the NASPA-CCN for Building National Adaptive Capacity and Resilience in the Agriculture Sector

1. Review national agriculture and related to encourage enhanced income generation policies and programmes through intercropping with biofuel crops, especially in the low-carbon-density tracts of The Federal Government should review all national the country (income can be enhanced directly agriculture and related policies and programmes and through participation in carbon markets). to determine the modifications required in view 3. Early warning systems of expected climate change. This would include policies and programmes related to: The Federal Government should review current policies and programmes for early warnings. Nigeria’s agriculture policy Based on this, they should develop and roll out agricultural research, livestock, fisheries, seeds, a programme to improve the availability of, and crops, markets and food security farmers’ access to, short- and long-range weather water harvesting, erosion and flood control, soil forecasts. conservation, and drought and desertification. 4. Irrigation and water supply 2. Leadership role In view of projected rainfall changes, particularly The Federal Government should play a leadership in Nigeria’s northern ecozones, the Federal and catalytic role by encouraging and supporting Government should increase efforts to identify new programme initiatives in the following areas: environmentally sound and sustainable Provide agricultural extension services for opportunities to improve and extend irrigation for resilience in agriculture: support a state-led crops, and water supply for livestock. extension programme addressing climate 5. Green growth technology solutions change adaptation. Key areas could include programmes focused on the training of trainers The Federal Government should identify productive in priority adaptation areas, and involving the avenues for interventions and investment National Youth Service. that promote innovation in low carbon-based Create a community-based climate change technologies for green growth, including adaptation support programme: collaborate opportunities to transfer appropriate technology with state governments and civil society from other countries. organizations (CSOs) to establish a country-wide community-based climate change adaptation 6. Gender support programme. Climate change risks and vulnerability are Create a climate change and agriculture research exacerbated by the gender-differentiated needs and programme: working through the Agricultural roles of society. The Federal Ministry of Agriculture Research Council of Nigeria, the Federal and Rural Development (FMARD) should encourage Government can stimulate and support a new community participation and active roles for national research initiative to address climate change impacts and adaptation in Nigeria’s women in all livelihood development initiatives agriculture sector. within its mandate. Promote micro-insurance and micro-credit: 7. International funding stimulate and support CSO and private sector involvement in providing insurance and access The Federal Government should facilitate access to finance for small-scale farmers vulnerable to to international funding for climate change climate change, to enable them to adapt their adaptation. This will support various climate- farming practices. resilient (also known as climate-smart) agricultural Promote poverty reduction through integrating development initiatives at the national, state and adaptation and mitigation: provide incentives local government levels. 4 NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK

reducing greenhouse gas emissions from Ebele Jonathan’s Agricultural Transformational agriculture and increasing the value of sustainable Agenda (ATA). The ATA is guided by a vision to farming practices, by valuing carbon and other unlock the full potential of agriculture by making agricultural ecosystem services, such as water Nigeria an agriculturally industrialized economy, purification and biodiversity along the scale and magnitude of the market agricultural science and technology development revolutions of Brazil, China and India over the past two decades. In pursuit of this vision, the FMARD, agricultural advisory services and information systems led by the Honourable Minister Dr Akinwumi risk management and crop/livestock insurance. Adesina, set ambitious goals in 2011. These included producing an additional 20 million metric tonnes of 1.3 Building food and creating 3.5 million new agricultural jobs Agricultural Resilience by 2015. To support the ATA and strengthen national capacity The National Policy on Climate Change (FGN, to respond effectively to the challenges of climate 2012), which was recently adopted by the Federal change, the FMARD – under the leadership of Executive Council, allows for an integrated agricultural Dr Adesina – launched an initiative to develop a intervention plan to reduce the sector’s vulnerability to National Agricultural Resilience Framework (NARF). climate change and strengthen resilience. This will help The will include a robust implementation plan that to achieve the dual goals of food security and poverty incorporates innovative agricultural production reduction. strategies and risk management mechanisms to promote resilience in the agriculture sector. The Vulnerability means susceptibility to harm or damage. Honourable Minister invited leading experts on Resilience, on the other hand, implies the ability of a climate impacts, agricultural systems and global system to cope, absorb stresses or shocks, and recover food security from within and outside Nigeria to or “bounce back”. A stress is defined as a regular, constitute the Advisory Committee on Agricultural sometimes continuous, relatively small and predictable Resilience in Nigeria (ACARN). disturbance (e.g., the effect of growing soil salinity). A shock, by contrast, is an irregular, infrequent, relatively The Honourable Minister inaugurated this large and unpredictable disturbance, such as a rare committee on 17 September 2013. Its mandate is drought or flood, or a new pest (Conway, 2012). The to develop the NARF and advise on the policies distinction is important: they are different phenomena required to successfully implement a national (even though they sometimes blend into one another) climate-smart agricultural programme. The goal is and have different effects on agricultural production. As to strengthen the capacity of small- and large-scale such, they require different responses and adaptations. agricultural producers to increase productivity, grow their wealth and thrive in the face of the growing The Montpellier Panel (2012) identified seven steps that social and environmental challenges stressors – need to be taken to build resilience. These include the including changing climate. This initiative is Nigeria’s anticipation of the likelihood and location of a stress first attempt at developing a sector-specific climate or shock, via a survey (or agro-climatic monitoring in adaptation and risk mitigation programme. the case of extreme weather events). The next steps – prevention and tolerance, recovery and restoration – involve defining objectives, identifying the various 1.5 The National options and appraising them in terms of their outcomes and the relevant costs and benefits. Situations do arise Agricultural Resilience when damage is unavoidable, and the only response Framework Report: then is to restore the basis for growth. Lastly, building resilience is about learning from past experiences. Aims, Approach and Methods

1.4 The Agricultural The natural world – its biodiversity, landscapes and Transformation Agenda ecosystems – is constantly changing. However, the increasing pace of climate change will place Nigeria’s agriculture sector has been undergoing unprecedented pressures on access to, and use of, phenomenal change under President Goodluck natural resources. As we pursue the intensification CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 5 of agricultural production for economic growth and national food security, it is important that agricultural Box 1.2 The NARF’s reforms include the imperative to preserve the natural strategic objectives world. It will be necessary to develop integrated approaches to land management (e.g., sustainable Strengthen the overall policy and institutional land management practices such as agroforestry and framework for improved resilience and conservation agriculture) that can significantly increase adaptation to climate variability and change yields while delivering better environmental outcomes. in the agriculture sector, including planning and implementation, systems for resource These approaches will also enhance farmers’ resilience mobilization and effective project monitoring to climate change and variability. and evaluation. The NARF has the principles of adaptive management Evaluate and introduce risk transfer and and participatory engagement as the central tenets of risk management strategies (e.g., improved its implementation strategy. Adaptive management seasonal and real-time weather forecasts, acknowledges uncertainty as a context of decision- insurance-based risk mitigation options) into the agriculture sector and encourage the making and builds flexibility into policy and decision- widespread deployment of these through making to manage risk; it also allows for the input of communication technologies, including new knowledge. Box 1.2 highlights the policy options, mobile phones. opportunities and required interventions for achieving Improve productivity through training the strategic objectives within the NARF report. communities and farmers on land and water Early on in the process of developing this report, management strategies (e.g., irrigation, water harvesting, soil fertility enhancement the committee decided to focus on small-scale rural and erosion control), improved farming farmers and agricultural communities, because they practices and using policy instruments such are the largest private sector producers. The report as economic incentives, regulations and articulates a vision that speaks to and directly supports communication. the ATA. Its broadly stated strategic objectives are Reinforce existing social safety nets through aligned to the NASPA-CCN (2011) and the National support systems that reduce vulnerability Policy on Climate Change (FGN, 2012). These goals and improve livelihood conditions for the are addressed in separate chapters that describe vulnerable, especially women and children. specific programmes and interventions, along Improve farming systems research capacity with the strategic actions needed to implement within the national agricultural research them successfully. The strategic actions are the systems (NARS) to enable and support the programmatic building blocks that are needed to implementation of climate-smart agriculture achieve the goals, and are highlighted throughout in Nigeria. the report. Many chapters include a summary Revamp extension services, including that identifies the principal parties responsible for building capacity for evidence-based implementation and the target beneficiaries. assessment and management of climate risks for resilience in the agriculture sector. During the three-month planning process, the ACARN hosted several stakeholder engagement sessions (Town Hall meetings) in Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones to consult with a broad spectrum 1.6 Structure of this of stakeholders. These stakeholders provided oral and written submissions from across the country that Report were instructive and helpful in forming several of the recommendations in this report, including examples This NARF report comprises ten chapters. Following of successful adaptation models or ongoing activities this introduction, Chapters 2 and 3 provide information that promote resilience. Some of these are included about Nigeria’s climate and natural resource base. as case studies in boxes in the relevant sections of this Chapters 4 and 5 focus on the policy and research report. Additional case studies from other developing institutional framework that must underpin any countries highlight lessons that are relevant to Nigeria successful agricultural resilience programme; both and potentially transferable. offer important insights and recommendations for 6 NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK transforming agricultural planning and research in the Cervigni, R., Rogers, J.A. and Henrion, M. (eds). 2013a. country. Chapter 6 focuses on agricultural extension, Nigeria: Toward Climate-Resilient Development in Nigeria. identifying the major gaps in the current system and Washington, DC, USA: World Bank. offering recommendations on new programmes and strategies that could transform agricultural extension Cervigni, R., Rogers, J.A. and Henrion, M. (eds). 2013b. in the country. Chapter 7 identifies the key adaptation Nigeria: Opportunities for Low-Carbon Development. options and policy interventions necessary for Washington, DC, USA: World Bank. implementing a successful climate-smart agriculture Conway, G. 2012. One Billion Hungry: Can We Feed the programme. Chapter 8 outlines a broad-based strategy World? Ithaca, NY, USA: Cornell University Press. for securing the internal and external resources needed to fully implement a robust agricultural FGN. 2012. Federal Government of Nigeria, National resilience programme, including opportunities Policy on Climate Change. Abuja, Nigeria: Federal to leverage current and future development aid Ministry of Environment. and multilateral funding in support of climate- Ibe, A.C. 1990. ‘Adjustments to the impact of sea level smart agriculture in Nigeria. Chapter 9 focuses on rise along the West and Central African coasts’. In: innovative frameworks for project monitoring and Titus, J.G. (ed.) Changing Climate and the Coast Vol. evaluation, while Chapter 10 summarizes the key 2. Washington, DC, USA: Environmental Protection recommendations and offers some thoughts that Agency. should help to guide the implementation phase of the NARF. Ibe, A.C. and Ojo, S.O. 1994. Implications of Expected Climate Change in the West and Central African Region: an overview. UNEP Regional Seas Reports and Studies 1.7 References No. 148. Nairobi, Kenya: United Nations Environment Programme. Abiodun, B.J., Lawal, K.A., Salami, A.T. and Abatan, A.A. 2013. Potential influences of global warming on IFPRI. 2009. Climate Change – Impact on Agriculture and future climate and extreme events in Nigeria. Regional Costs of Adaptation. Washington, DC, USA: International Environmental Change 13(3): 477–491. Food Policy Research Institute.

Abiodun, B.J., Salami, A.T., Mathew, O.J. and Odedokun, Montpellier Panel. 2012. Growth with Resilience: O.D. 2012. Potential impacts of afforestation on Opportunities in African Agriculture. London, UK: climate change and extreme events in Nigeria. Climate Agriculture for Impact. Dynamics 41(2): 277–293. NFNC. 2003. Nigeria’s First National Communication to Adefolalu, D.O. 1986. Further aspects of Sahelian the United Nations Framework Convention on Climatic drought as evident from rainfall regime of Nigeria. Change (UNFCCC). Abuja, Nigeria: Federal Republic of Archives for Meteorology, Geophysics and Bioclimatology Nigeria, Ministry of Environment. Ser. B (36): 277–295. Oladipo, E. 1993. A comprehensive approach to Adegoke, J.O., Fageja, M., James, G., Agbaje, G. and drought and desertification in Northern Nigeria. Ologunorisa, T.E. 2010. An assessment of recent Natural Hazards 8: 235–261. changes in the Niger Delta coastline using satellite imagery. Journal of Sustainable Development 3(4): 277–296.

BNRCC. 2011. National Adaptation Strategy and Plan of Action on Climate Change for Nigeria (NASPA-CCN). Ibadan, Nigeria: Building Nigeria’s Response to Climate Change (http://nigeriaclimatechange.org/naspa.pdf). 2 Nigeria’s Changing Climate: Risks, Impacts and Adaptation 8 NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK Source: NIMET (1952–2012 national average) Figure 2.1 trendwarming from themid-1970sto thepresent; 1952–2012. the period This demonstrates astrong Figure 2.2shows Nigeria’s for temperature variability Nigeria’s to climate extreme events. vulnerability conditions inthe1990s. These swingsunderline 1980s, andanapparent return ofwetter thannormal the1970sand during period followed dry by avery 1950sthroughthe early to thelate 1960s. This was Forbe observed. instance, there wasawet from period differences between years, decadaltrends distinct can (Figurecentury 2.1). While there are significant considerablyoverclimate has varied thelasthalf- shows thatNigeria’s Meteorological (NIMET) Agency climate dataanalysedby theNigeria Surface (4 Sahel (11 in thenorth. Three climate zones are recognized: the conditions andannualrainfalloflessthan600mm an annualrainfallofover 2000mm,withsemi-arid giving humid conditionsinthesouthofNigeria, oftheseairmassesandtheITDcreatesThe interaction lines ordustdevils. Tropical Continental airmasses, giving to squall rise mass occasionallyundercuts the Tropical or Maritime andFebruary.December The Equatorial air Easterlies November, between period withapronounced dry March to August, andretreats from September to the Equator, therainy seasonadvancesinlandfrom Following theannualmovement oftheITDacross (Adegoke andLamptey,climate characteristics 1999). key affect ofthe thespatialand temporal distribution theyearposition andoscillationoftheITDduring meet alongtheInter-Tropical (ITD). Discontinuity The Tropical and Maritime Tropical Continental airmasses air massandtheEquatorial (Ojo, Easterlies 1977). The Tropical airmass, the Maritime Tropical Continental Nigeria’s climate isaffected by three systems: the 2.1 CHAPTER 2: NIGERIA’S CHANGING CLIMATE: RISKS, IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION o

Rainfall (mm) –8 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 o

1952 N). 1954 Nigeria’s Climate 1956 o 1958 –14 1960 Rainfall variabilityRainfall inNigeria

1962 o N), Savannah (8 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980

1982 o 1984 –11 1986

1988 o N) andGuinea 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Changes in the basic characteristics oftherainy Changes inthebasiccharacteristics al., 2013). coming decades(Abiodun etal., 2012;2013;Hassanet 1°and4°Cforbetween allecological zones inthe indicate atemperaturefor increase thecountry of continue, sinceseveral recent climate projections trend thatthiswarming will likely isvery stations. It annual temperature datafrom 1901to 2005for 30 Bello etal. similar results (2012)reported usingmean Source: NIMET (1952–2012 national average) Figure 2.2 and coffee, as well asstaplecrops yam, cassava, like plantation crops suchascocoa, oilpalm,rubber zone ofthesouth,longerrainy seasonsupports introduced. For instance, inthehumidtropical forest grow, andtheexotic plantsthatcanbesuccessfully ofindigenousplants that govern thetypes section) intheprevious inrainfall(described The variations AEZsrangefrom humid to dry. Nigeria, and soils. In units definedonthebasisoftheirclimate, landform Agro-ecological zones (AEZs) are land-mapping Fisheries inNigeria 2.2 through states to mostofthesouthern thenortheast. from swathe ofthecountry, extending thenorthwest to smallareas inthesouthwest, now affects alarge cessationoftherains,early whichwasoncelimited 2000s, have becomemuchmore widespread. Similarly, inonlyafew theearly were locationsduring observed results.disturbing The late onsetoftherains, which the rainy by season,conducted NIMET, revealed some Analyses ofthemeanonsetandcessationdates of more usualoccurrence inAugust to the1970s. prior occurs more frequently inJuly, compared to its season(August break) now dry while theshort southwards,a doublerainfallmaximumisshifting thatthearea experiencing hasbeenobserved It season have (Odjugo, alsobeenreported 2005;2009).

Temperature (°C) -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 -2 -1 0 1 2 3

1952 1954 Agriculture and Agriculture and 1956 1958 1960 Temperature variability inNigeria 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

2012 9 10 NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK cocoyam and sweet potatoes. The north, with its lower artisanal and industrial fisheries (Ibe, 1982). The rainfall and shorter rainy season, comprises mainly potential production is from the nation’s 200 nautical Sudan and Sahel savannahs and represents almost mile Exclusive Economic Zone, which stretches for 80% of the vegetation zones of the country (Figure 853 km along the coastline and has an area of 210,900 2.3). The savannah is ideal for cultivating grains such km2. This was estimated at 370,000 tonnes per year in as sorghum, millet and cowpea. It is also an excellent 1983 (Ssentongo et al., 1986). Tobor (1990) estimated natural habitat for grazing livestock. the maximum sustainable yield of Nigerian fisheries resources at 240,000 metric tonnes, but official catch Nigeria is richly endowed with fisheries resources. figures and unofficial estimates have consistently These make an important contribution to the country’s exceeded this value. economy and food security and, if rationally exploited, these could make the country more than self-sufficient The unrestricted activities of global industrial fishing in fish production. Nigerian fisheries are found in a fleets are encroaching on the artisanal fisheries, wide range of ecosystems, from freshwater streams, placing food security and economic returns from rivers, reservoirs and lakes (both natural and man- Nigerian fisheries at risk. The consequences of made), through brackish-water creeks, estuaries and overfishing are grave and would undoubtedly lead to a lagoons, to the coastal inshore and offshore marine decline in catch volumes and the total disappearance environment. There are an estimated 12.5 million of some of the most valuable fish species, including hectares (ha) of inland water bodies, made up of those of global significance. Additionally, the marine reservoirs, lakes, ponds and perennial swamps (Ita, environment is under assault from a variety of land- 1993) and some 741,500 ha of brackish water, most and sea-based pollutants, including agro-chemicals, municipal wastes, at-sea dumping and a dominant oil of which are suitable for aquaculture. The inland industry. In addition to increasing ocean acidification, water surface area of 14 million ha is estimated to be these pollutants pose a distinct threat to the health of capable of producing more than 2 million tonnes of the marine ecosystem and its rich fisheries (Ukwe et al., fish per year, which can be augmented by expanded 2006; Ukwe and Ibe, 2008). aquaculture.

The marine environment is characterized by a narrow shelf that breaks at depths of between 100 and 120 m. 2.3 Risks From Future It is scoured by the Avon, Mahin and Calabar canyons Climate Change and has pockets of dead Holocene coral banks. This provides rich fishery resources of both local and Climate change projections are uncertain due to trans-boundary importance, with stocks supporting the complex nature of the climate and its feedback mechanisms, which are difficult to capture in models. Uncertainties also arise from a lack of climate Figure 2.3 Rainfall distribution across major agro-ecological zones of Nigeria data, differing and uncertain scenarios for future greenhouse gas emissions, and little consideration of seasons (e.g., wet and dry seasons).

General circulation models (GCMs) are the main tools used to predict the climate of the future. They account for the effects of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the resulting global climate change. While they are useful at global and continental scales, they are unable to represent more local features and dynamics. The hydrologic implications of global climate change (e.g., precipitation in a region or stream flow in a river), which are of interest in climate change impact Annual rainfall (mm) studies, are therefore usually assessed by downscaling GRIDCODE the predictors simulated by GCMs. As a result, 300–1000 1001–1300 different GCM datasets produce varying and even 1301–1600 contradicting results. Most studies tend to use several 1601–2100 different models to obtain more reliable estimates of 2101–2850 potential regional changes and to account for these Source: Abila, 2010 uncertainties. CHAPTER 2: NIGERIA’S CHANGING CLIMATE: RISKS, IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION 11

When assessing the likely impacts of climate change, temperature caused by climate change can affect every researchers need to complement the data provided stage of the life cycle of fish, by affecting physiological, by climate models with assessments of the inherent morphological, reproductive, migratory and behavioural vulnerability and resilience of particular sectors or responses. The displacement of brackish and fresh environments. This takes the focus away from global waters by rising sea levels in the Niger Delta and other mean surface temperature change and allows for the coastal areas will also disrupt habitats and spawning inclusion of other anthropogenic climate influences, grounds, cause variation in the occurrence of fish such as land use change. A study by Speranza in species and depress productivity, thereby adversely 2010 argued that climate projections for sub-Saharan affecting freshwater fisheries and aquaculture. Africa do not fit the spatial and temporal scales of agricultural processes, practices or planning, and An increase in the frequency and intensity of storms cannot yet produce the details needed for impact could directly endanger people and communities assessments. These limitations need to be understood on Nigeria’s coast, by causing damage to housing, and accounted for in research, policy and planning. community facilities and infrastructure used for fisheries and aquaculture. Inland, the increased The uncertainties in the amount and direction of variability in rainfall patterns and in air and water changes in precipitation for Nigeria, as suggested by temperatures will affect the productivity of rivers, climate models, have been well documented and lakes and floodplains, which will have an impact on these pose additional challenges for developing freshwater fisheries and aquaculture. Broader changes appropriate adaptation policy responses. For example, in Nigeria’s hydrological conditions, and seasonal a recent study by IFPRI on West African Climate and changes in temperature, pH, salinity and ecosystem Climate Change (Hassan et al., 2013) showed that health, will also affect productivity and increase projected precipitation changes over Nigeria vary risks. At the same time, friction with other freshwater significantly. For example, while one model predicts stakeholders (e.g., agriculture, industry, energy an increase of 50–100 mm in precipitation by 2050 generation and urban water supplies) are likely to arise throughout the country (except in the central portion), as a result of climate change. another model predicts a complete reversal of the climate pattern in all geographical areas. In the latter However, raised sea levels may create new scenario, the southern coastal areas that currently environments and opportunities for the fisheries receive most rainfall will suffer a greater loss in and aquaculture sector (e.g., coastal aquaculture precipitation, while the northern part of the country and mangrove development). It is possible that the will gain precipitation. dynamic upwelling described by Ibe and Ajayi (1986) may have positive implications in the future, but Statistical downscaling of model projections by more data and modelling will be required to make an Abiodun et al. (2013) of nine GCMs show that accurate assessment. some scenarios predict a significant increase in the temperature over all of Nigeria, with one scenario predicting the greatest warming over the Sudan 2.4 Impacts on savannah, of 2.2oC by mid-century (2046–2065) and 4.5oC by late–century (2081–2100). The models also Agriculture predict that warming trends will lead to an increased The likely impacts of climate change on agriculture occurrence of extreme temperatures and heat waves can be assessed using crop–climate models, which over the entire country, and will increase the frequency integrate biophysical, agronomic and socio-economic of extreme rainfall events in the south and southeast, variables and data. The development of more while reducing annual rainfall in the northeast. Box 2.1 sophisticated crop–climate models is helping to meet summarizes the results of a similar model-based study, the need for evidence-based decision-making and to published in a recent report on climate resilience in recommend adaptation strategies, policy options and Nigeria by the World Bank (Cervigni et al., 2013a). interventions across the agriculture sector. Similarly, Although there are no long-term data series on which livestock–climate models involve linking climate data to base definitive statements about climate change to livestock production parameters such as species, and the Nigerian ocean environment, preliminary land area and stocking rates. Models that combine studies show that rising ocean temperatures could soil–crop–weather relationships for specific countries further deplete fisheries (Ajayi and Findlay, 1989; Ibe, and regions can simulate different crop-management 1990; Ibe and Ojo, 1994; Ibe, 2011). Increases in water scenarios for several years over a large area. 12 NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK

Box 2.1 Climate projections Surface precipitation projections for Nigeria The model simulations show that, around 2020, conditions in 53% of Nigeria are expected to To assess the range of future climate variability, be wetter, while 10% will be drier and 35% will extremes and impacts, a high-resolution be stable. Precipitation projections are highly regional climate model (RCM) was used to uncertain for the remaining 2%. In 2050, 41% simulate and project climate change from 1971 of the country is expected to be wetter, 14% through to 2065. This was modelled under drier and 20% stable, but the area subject to an A1B emission scenario, which represents a uncertainty increases from 2% to 25%. Evident median between the most extreme (optimistic clusters of drying areas in the short and medium and pessimistic) scenarios developed by term are concentrated in the southeast plateau the IPCC. The Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui and along the southwest littoral, with stable areas Cambiamenti Climatici - Mediterranean (CMCC- in the centre of Nigeria and along the central and MED) global model output (see Scoccimarro eastern coastal zones. Areas projected to become et al., 2011) was used to create boundary wetter are in the north, and uncertainty is evident conditions in which to run the COSMO Model mainly in the arid and semi-arid regions in the in Climate Mode (COSMO-CLM) RCM (see medium term (Cervigni et al., 2013a). Rockel et al., 2008).

After validating these with observed climate There are many types of crop models, but the Decision from the historical period, the RCM was bias- Support System for Agro-technology Transfer (DSSAT)1 corrected for the whole simulated time frame. has been tested and applied worldwide, including in To capture the range of possible climate several African countries (e.g., Ghana, Morocco, Nigeria outcomes, maintain high resolution and take and Tunisia), and with a broader range of applications into account uncertainty about future climate, multiple climate projections from different than any other family of crop models. DSSAT integrates GCMs were used to “perturb” bias-corrected the effects of soil, crop, phenotype, weather and RCM results for 2006–2065. Nine global GCM management options and allows users to ask “what simulations, part of the well-developed if” questions and simulate results to assess possible Coupled Model Intercomparison Project adaptation strategies under different climate change (CMIP3) experiment, and the CMCC-MED scenarios. The user can also simulate multi-year outcomes global model were used for this. The results are of crop management strategies for different crops. summarized below. Results reported in the IFPRI study (Hassan et al., 2013) Air surface temperature projections were based on DSSAT crop modelling projections. The study predicts a 5–25% loss of yield in areas planted with The simulated air surface temperature, sorghum in the northern Sahelian zone, which is already averaged across Nigeria, indicates a definite prone to extreme climate variability. This is likely to be increasing trend. Average temperatures in the result of expected temperature increases making Nigeria will be 1–2°C higher in 2050 than they it too hot for sorghum to grow in these areas. The are at present. The warming projected for expected impact of climate change on food production 2056–2065 compared to 2001–2010 is more is not all negative, though. For example, millet evident during December–February, when the production and yield are predicted to increase in all central part of Nigeria (7–12°N) is affected by scenarios, although the area planted with the crop will warming of up to 3.5°C. From June through remain unchanged. Similarly, the production of cassava, to August of 2056–2065, warming is less pronounced, reaching 2.8°C in the northern sweet potatoes, yams and other root and tuber crops is part. Analysis of extreme events suggests projected to increase in all scenarios (Hassan et al., 2013). tendencies for both extremely low and The results of the World Bank study (Cervigni et al., extremely high temperature values to increase. 2013a) are similar in some regards, but make important The southern part of Nigeria (south of 7°N) is distinctions. The key findings are that, by 2050, there is likely to be less affected. a very high probability of lower yields for all cereals in

CONTINUED 1 See: www.icasa.net/dssat CHAPTER 2: NIGERIA’S CHANGING CLIMATE: RISKS, IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION 13 all AEZs, except for millet and maize, where projections Figure 2.4 Projected changes in crop yields in for parts of the country are uncertain. Rice is particularly Nigeria by 2050 vulnerable in the northern parts of the country, where 10 yield declines of 20–30% are predicted (see Figure 2.4). 5 Predictions for cassava, yams and other root crops show a high variability between models, with some showing 0 a yield decline by 2020 and 2050, and others suggesting -5 significant increases in cassava yield for both periods -10 (Cervigni et al., 2013a). -15

Change in crop yield, % -20 With appropriate land management, some aspects -25 of climate change, such as flooding, can be turned to -30 farmers’ advantage. Although flooding can cause a Rice Sorghum Maize Yam Millet Cassava temporary loss of productivity, it can allow dry-season 1st percentile Median 99th percentile farming to expand due to elevated soil moisture and Source: Cervigni et al., 2013a; based on the authors’ aggregated higher groundwater levels. Similarly, while variations in data per AEZ and weighted against crop yields of base year the length of the growing season increase uncertainty about how much and when rain will come in any given year, the impact on agricultural production is not always negative. Furthermore, higher temperatures might 2.5 Impacts on result in higher yields in some areas, while other parts Fisheries of the country might experience lower yields due to an increased rate of evapotranspiration, water deficits or Scenario-based assessments of the possible impacts of increased incidence of pests and diseases. climate change on fisheries and marine resources are now being developed for Nigeria. Most of the results Long dry spells and the late onset and changes in that have been reported are based on observational the duration of the rainy season all have significant studies and extrapolations. For example, Ajayi and consequences for agricultural production, because of Findlay (1989) indicated that important pelagic Nigeria’s heavy dependence on rain-fed agriculture. On species, such as Sardinella aurita and Ethmalosa a positive note, there is clear evidence that farm-level fimbriata, may decline with global warming, since adaptations to these environmental challenges can Resentlythe sardinellas are sparse in the two sectors of have significant positive impacts on productivity and the West and Central African Region where the ocean’s rural livelihoods (Apata, 2010; Ayinde et al., 2011). In mixed layer is of low salinity (<35%), warm (>240C) fact, yields of major crops have continued to increase in water and is present all year round. several parts of West Africa since 1961, despite declining rainfall and increasing temperatures (Mohammed, 2011). Similarly, tuna reported to be of commercial This underscores the importance of farm management significance (Wise and Ajayi, 1981; Ajayi and Talabi, practices and access to inputs throughout sub-Saharan 1984) may no longer migrate to Nigerian waters. The Africa. warming of the ocean off Nigeria’s coastline may also lead to the disappearance of some demersal species Irrigation is one solution to enhancing the climate (e.g., croakers, Sciaenidae) that are found in the littoral resilience of Nigeria’s agriculture. The World Bank zone and below the thermocline, where the mixed Study (Cervigni et al., 2013a) suggested that, by 2050, layer is either present or oscillates. Some fishing a combination of 13–18 million rain-fed ha under communities are already experiencing the effects of improved management practices, and 1.5–1.7 million climate change, and in response they are developing ha of extra irrigation, could fully offset the gap in secondary and tertiary livelihoods to compensate for agricultural outputs caused by climate change. If unit lost income, such as mariculture, crop farming and costs can be kept in check, the benefit–cost ratio (in timber logging. terms of GDP) is favourable, ranging between 1.3:1 and more than 3:1. Thus, investment decisions made on Fisheries management the basis of historical climate may be wrong: projects ignoring climate change could turn out to be either Fisheries management involves the processes of under- or over-designed, with losses (in terms of excess gathering information, analysis, planning, consultation, capital costs or foregone revenues) in the range of decision-making, allocation of resources, and 20–40% of initial capital in the case of irrigation. formulating, implementing and enforcing (if necessary) 14 NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK regulations or rules to govern fisheries activities and provide them with the necessary human, financial, ensure the continued productivity of the resources social, physical and natural capitals, including by and the accomplishment of other fisheries objectives improving their access to markets, information and (FAO, 1997). Management draws on fisheries science new technology. to find solutions that will protect fishing resources and Self-organization refers to how well farmers organize allow their sustainable exploitation. themselves to be able to address the problems they Managing fisheries is also about managing people encounter with little external help. The capacity for and businesses, not just fish. If fisheries management learning refers to a farmer’s management approach is to be successful, then associated human factors, and openness to learning. As farmers are constantly such as the practices of fishing communities, are of key adjusting their activities and learning from other importance and need to be understood. farmers and their environment, indigenous knowledge reflects this adaptive learning. The question is: how The Federal Department of Fisheries is the main can farmers learn from their experiences? The Federal agency responsible for executing the management of Government needs to understand and strengthen Nigeria’s fisheries, in collaboration with state fisheries indigenous knowledge systems. Such a resilience departments and other stakeholders. The Sea Fisheries approach needs to be region-specific and adapted to Act and the Inland Fisheries Act, both of 2004, are the socio-ecological characteristics. principal guidelines for managing Nigerian fisheries.2 The objectives of these Acts are to promote the Four measures are crucial for successful adaptation to optimum use and long-term sustainable development climate change: awareness; an enabling policy and of aquatic living resources to achieve economic working conditions; understanding past and future growth and create employment, for the benefit of climatic trends; and integrating local knowledge. present and future generations of Nigerians. Understanding climate trends and having access to information on the likely duration and dynamics The goals of managing the fisheries resources base are of the changes will allow researchers to suggest to ensure an ecologically sturdy natural environment – and farmers to adopt – flexible adaptation capable of sustaining its fisheries resources, and to options tailored to their own situations. Farmers are buffer the fisheries resources management system continually adapting their production to variable against the impacts of climate change. social-ecological conditions, and they have valuable local knowledge that can provide useful insights to 2.6 Building Resilience professionals. Considering the diversity of Nigeria’s AEZs, documenting and strengthening indigenous in Nigerian Agriculture knowledge can provide a wealth of useful information.

The uncertainty of climate change predictions means Adaptation options must be based on information that Nigeria must focus on building the resilience of gathered from vulnerability and impact assessments. agriculture to cope with different possible scenarios. They will combine scientific research with laboratory- According to Ifejika Speranza (2010) this includes: scale or pilot-scale projects, and will lead in to field- scale projects to demonstrate the framework and building ‘buffer’ capacities that enable farmers to capacities needed. The target should be to mainstream adapt climate change adaptation into all existing and new improving their self-organization, and policies in the key sectors of air, biodiversity, coastal growing their capacity for learning. resources, energy, fishery resources, land and water. This will reduce vulnerability, build resilience and build Building the ecological buffer capacity relates to capacity to climate change. Box 2.2 describes some growing crops that are tolerant to the prevailing effective adaptation strategies. climatic conditions, adopting better agronomic practices that increase the soil’s capacity to hold The preferred approach is to select adaptation moisture (e.g., conservation tillage) and introducing measures for agriculture that are in harmony with measures to reduce soil erosion, such as terraces and natural ecosystems and provide key goods and bunds. Enhancing farmers’ socio-economic buffer services to the land and people. Adaptation to climate capacities entails increasing their livelihood assets to change must focus on maintaining and enhancing the ability of natural ecosystems to continue performing 2 See: http://elri-ng.org/newsandrelease2.html these functions. Efforts should also address the needs, CHAPTER 2: NIGERIA’S CHANGING CLIMATE: RISKS, IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION 15

maintenance of healthy and diverse ecosystems as the Box 2.2 Effective basis for adaptation to climate change. adaptation strategies

Two factors that shape the type of adaptation 2.7 Climate Resilience response are the existing capacity of the affected in a Low-Carbon communities, and the level of information about climate change impacts (McGray et al., 2007). In Economy cases where a community’s capacity is low – as Above all, climate change adaptation strategies must it is in most of sub-Saharan Africa – the focus be sustainable. This includes adopting a low-carbon should be on addressing the underlying sources economy, or ideally a carbon-neutral economy, as of vulnerability, rather than adaptation per se. a foundation for national development. Indeed, With higher certainty about climate change, investment in low-carbon fuels and renewable energy the focus should be on addressing the impacts. is a pillar of the Vision 20:2020, which articulates Adaptation thus involves: Nigeria’s long-term intent to launch onto a path of 1. Reducing vulnerability by addressing the sustained social and economic progress. This will drivers of vulnerability to climate change. improve the living standards of all Nigerians and place Activities generally aim to reduce poverty the country among the top 20 economies in the world and other problems associated with a lack by 2020. of capabilities, for example by improving livelihoods. Although these activities do not Assuming conventional approaches to oil and gas address specific climate change impacts, they production, electricity generation, transportation and help to create a buffer from climate trends agriculture are maintained, the World Bank estimates and shocks, and therefore build resilience that achieving the Vision 20:2020 goals might emit up to 11.6 billion tons of CO into the atmosphere over (McGray et al., 2007). This puts resilience is at 2 the core of adaptation actions. the period 2010–2035 — five times Nigeria’s estimated historical emissions between 1900 and 2005. In 2. Building adaptive capacity to increase contrast, the World Bank predicts that a low-carbon people’s ability to adapt to climate change, path to achieving those development objectives for such as communicating climate change 2020 and beyond would result in 32% lower carbon information, building awareness of potential emissions and net economic benefits to Nigeria impacts, and investing in livelihoods. estimated at about 2% of GDP. These benefits include a more productive and climate-resilient agriculture. 3. Implementing adaptation decisions and transforming capacity into action. This A World Bank report argues that the time to make focuses on reducing the cumulative that transition is now because “once locked into the impacts of climate change, ensuring that country’s economic fabric, higher carbon technologies no externalities occur from adaptation are costly and impractical to reverse” (Cervigni et al., actions (i.e., adaptation by one actor does 2013b). Nigeria can and should “leapfrog” the carbon- not adversely affect others), avoiding the intensive phase of development and move directly to anticipated adverse impacts of climate cleaner, more advanced transport, energy, agriculture change, and ensuring that the distributional and land use options. impacts of adaptation are minimized (Adger et al., 2005). The World Bank suggests that the Federal Government, in partnership with the country’s states as appropriate, Source: Ifejika Speranza (2010) consider a number of actions that could help to remove the barriers to low-carbon development in the agriculture sector. Actions include: choices and priorities of farmers. Thus, an ecosystem approach to climate adaptation can contribute bring up to 1 million ha of land under ‘triple-win’ to reducing climate change impacts, diminishing (higher yields, better climate resilience, reduced the vulnerability of people and infrastructure, and carbon emissions), sustainable management increasing their resilience and adaptive capacity. practices by 2029 Finally, appropriate policies and legislation must ensure the ATA includes support for climate- be adopted to promote the development and resilient agriculture demonstration projects 16 NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK

launch a dedicated research and extension climate change and extreme events in Nigeria. Climate programme on climate-resilient agriculture Dynamics 41(2): 277–293.

define procedures and screening tools to Adegoke, J. and Lamptey, B.L. 1999. ‘Intra seasonal integrate climate considerations into project variability of summertime precipitation in the Guinea evaluations. Coastal Region of West Africa’. Paper presented at Cheikh Anta Diop University, Dakar, Senegal, June 1999. 2.8 Conclusions Adger, W.N., Arnell, N.W. and Tompkins, E.L. 2005. From an environmental point of view, 2012 was one of Successful adaptation to climate change across scales. the most challenging years in Nigeria’s recent history, Global Environmental Change 15(2): 77–86. due to unprecedented flooding that devastated Ajayi, T.O. and Findlay, I. 1989. ‘Aquatic living several states. According to statistics released by resources and climate change in the WACAF region’. the US Federal Emergency Management Authority, In: Proceedings of Workshop of UNEP Task Force for over 2.3 million people were displaced, 363 persons WACAF Region. Lagos, Nigeria: Nigerian Institute for lost their lives and the total value of losses across all Oceanography and Marine Research. economic sectors was estimated at US$16.9 billion. The 2012 flood exposed Nigeria’s vulnerability to extreme Ajayi, T.O. and Talabi, S.O. 1984. ‘The potential and climate events and underscores the need for planning strategies for optimum utilization of the fisheries to enhance adaptive capacity and resilience across all resources of Nigeria’. NIOMR Tech. Paper No. 18. Lagos, sectors of the economy, including agriculture. Nigeria: Nigerian Institute for Oceanography and Marine Research. Despite considerable uncertainty about the future climate, we know enough to build meaningful Apata, T.G. 2010. Effects of global climate change on scenarios on which to base future decision-making. Nigerian agriculture. An empirical analysis. CBN Journal Uncertainty about the local impacts of global climate of Applied Statistics 2(1): 31–50. change trends, particularly in developing countries, has hampered adaptation action to date. But even in Ayinde, O.E., Muchie, M. and Olatunji, G.B. 2011. Effects locations with limited existing research, the test cases of climate change on agricultural productivity in developed in the World Bank study (Cervigni et al., Nigeria: A co-integration model approach. Journal of 2013a) were able to build robust scenarios to 2030. Human Ecology 35(3): 189–194. This study identifies adaptation actions that can serve Bello, O.B., Ganiyu, O.T., Wahab M.K., Afolabi M.S., as good precautionary steps to prepare for a range of Oluleye F., Ig, S.A., Mahmud J., Azeez M.A. and possible climate change outcomes. These scenarios Abdulmaliq S.Y. 2012. Evidence of climate change show that the degradation of natural resources impacts on agriculture and food security in Nigeria. has a direct impact on agricultural productivity International Journal of Agriculture and Forestry 2(2): and livelihoods by reducing the resilience of agro- 49–55. ecosystems to extreme climate events. This further undermines West Africa’s future capacity to cope with Cervigni, R., Rogers, J.A. and Henrion, M. (eds). 2013a. climate change. Nigeria: Toward Climate-Resilient Development in Nigeria. Washington, DC, USA: World Bank. 2.9 References Cervigni, R., Rogers, J.A. and Henrion, M. (eds). 2013b. Nigeria: Opportunities for Low-Carbon Development. Abila, N. 2010. Biofuels adoption in Nigeria: A Washington, DC, USA: World Bank. preliminary review of feedstock and fuel production FAO. 1997. Fisheries Management Section 1.2, Technical potentials. Management of Environmental Quality: An Guidelines for Responsible Fisheries. Rome, Italy: Food International Journal 21 (6): 785–795. and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Abiodun, B.J., Lawal, K.A., Salami, A.T. and Abatan, Hassan, S.M., Ikuenobe, C.E., Jalloh, A., Nelson, G.C. A.A. 2013. Potential influences of global warming on and Thomas, T.S. 2013. ‘Nigeria’. In: Jalloh, A., Nelson, future climate and extreme events in Nigeria. Regional G.C., Thomas, T.S., Zougmoré, R. and Roy-Macauley, Environmental Change 13(3): 477–491. H. (eds). West African Agriculture and Climate Change: Abiodun, B.J., Salami, A.T., Mathew, O.J. and Odedokun, A Comprehensive Analysis. Washington DC, USA: O.D. 2012. Potential impacts of afforestation on International Food Policy Research Institute. CHAPTER 2: NIGERIA’S CHANGING CLIMATE: RISKS, IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION 17

Ibe, A.C. 1982. ‘A review of potential economic mineral Odjugo, P.A.O. 2009. Quantifying the cost of climate resources in offshore Nigeria’. NIOMR Tech. Paper No. change impact in Nigeria: Emphasis on wind and 8. Abuja, Nigeria: Nigerian Institute for Oceanography rainstorm. Journal of Human Ecology 28(2): 93–101. and Marine Research. Ojo, O. 1977. Climates of West Africa. Ibadan, Nigeria: Ibe, A.C. 1990. ‘Adjustments to the impact of sea level Heineman Publishers rise along the West and Central African coasts’. In: Titus, J.G. (ed.) Changing Climate and the Coast Vol. Rockel, B., Castro, C.L., Pielke, R.A., von Storch H. and 2. Washington, DC, USA: Environmental Protection Leoncini, G. 2008. Dynamical downscaling: Assessment Agency. of model system dependent retained and added variability for two different regional climate models, Ibe, A.C. 2011. ‘Institutional challenges to combating Journal of Geophysical Research 113(D21): 107. climate change in Nigeria’. 3rd Lagos State Climate Change Summit. Eko Hotel and Suites, 8–10 February Scoccimarro, E., Gualdi, S., Bellucci, A., Sanna, A., Fogli, 2011. Lagos State, Nigeria: Ministry of Environment. P.G., Manzini, E., Vichi, M., Oddo, P. and Navarra, A. 2011. Effects of tropical cyclones on ocean heat transport in Ibe, A.C. and Ajayi, T.O. 1986. ‘Possible upwelling a high resolution coupled General Circulation Model. phenomenon off the Nigerian coast’. NIOMR Tech. Journal of Climate 24(16): 4368–4384. Paper. No. 25. Lagos, Nigeria: Nigerian Institute for Oceanography and Marine Research. Ssentongo, G.W., Ukpe, E.T. and Ajayi, T.O. 1986. Marine Fisheries Resources of Nigeria: A Review of Exploited Fish Ibe, A.C. and Ojo, S.O. 1994. Implications of Expected Stocks. Fishery Committee For the Eastern Central Climate Change in the West and Central African Region: Atlantic (CECAF/ECAF) SERIES 86/40. Rome, Italy: Food an overview. UNEP Regional Seas Reports and Studies and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. No. 148. Nairobi, Kenya: United Nations Environment Programme. Tobor, J.G. 1990. ‘The fishing industry of Nigeria: Status and potential for self-sufficiency in fish production’. Ifejika Speranza, C. 2010. Resilient Adaptation to NIOMR Tech. Paper No. 54. Abuja, Nigeria: Nigerian Climate Change in African Agriculture. Studies 54. Bonn, Institute for Oceanography and Marine Research. Germany: Deutsches Institut Für Entwicklungs Politik. Ukwe, C.N., Ibe, A.C. and Sherman K. 2006. A sixteen- Ita, E.O. 1993. ‘Inland fishery resources of Nigeria’. country mobilization for sustainable fisheries in the Committee for Inland Fisheries of Africa Occasional Guinea Current Large Marine Ecosystem. Journal of Paper No. 20. Rome, Italy: Food and Agriculture Ocean and Coastal Management 49: 385–412. Organization of the United Nations. Ukwe, C.N. and Ibe, C.A. 2008. A regional collaborative McGray, H., Hammill, A. and Bradley, R., with Schipper, approach in transboundary pollution management in E.L. and Parry, J-E. 2007. ‘Weathering the storm: Options the Guinea Current Region of Western Africa. Journal of for framing adaptation and development’. Washington, Ocean and Coastal Management 53: 493–506. DC, USA: World Resources Institute (http://pdf.wri.org/ weathering_the_storm.pdf). Wise, J.P. and Ajayi, T.O. 1981. ‘Feasibility study for development of a Nigerian tuna fishery’. Occasional Mohammed, B.A. 2011. Climate change risks in Paper No. 32. Lagos, Nigeria: Nigerian Institute for Sahelian Africa. Regional Environmental Change 11(1): Oceanography and Marine Research. 109–117.

Odjugo, P.A.O. 2005. An analysis of rainfall pattern in Nigeria. Global Journal of Environmental Sciences 4(2): 139–145.

3 Enhancing the Natural Resource Base 20 NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK

3.1 Nigeria’s Natural Water Resources Rainfall is the main source of water for agriculture in Nigeria. This is supplemented to a very negligible Efforts to make agriculture in Nigeria more resilient extent by irrigation, with only 0.3% of the total to climate change must also consider the natural land area under irrigation (NLUP, 2012), despite environment. The natural resources of biodiversity, the rich network of drainage systems dominated climate, ecosystems, land, soil, vegetation, water and by the Niger-Benue system and the potential of wildlife provide a fundamental basis for agriculture, groundwater sources. Managing water resources is especially in countries like Nigeria where inputs such a major challenge in achieving agricultural resilience as chemical fertilizers, energy, irrigation and pesticides to climate change. Crop and livestock production are minimal. This chapter reviews the status of Nigeria’s are adversely affected by drought and water scarcity, natural resource base (the key resources are described both of which are likely to be worsened by climate below) and recommends what should be done to change. Conversely, extreme weather events related enhance it and make agriculture more resilient. to climate change, including flooding, can devastate crops, livestock and fisheries (as occurred in 2012). The Soils challenge is to devise and implement measures such as adapted crops and animal breeds, innovative water In general, climate, geology, topography, vegetation management practices, and effective early warning and history account for the different soil types in systems based on expanded observation networks. the country, much of them iron-rich and derived These will help to counter the impacts of water from basement complex and old sedimentary rocks. shortages and, at the same time, develop measures Nigeria’s soil resources can be classified into: that check and manage floods. the southeast ecological zone, where soils are dominated by low activity clays Natural vegetation the southwest ecological zone, where soils are Nigeria’s natural vegetation, mainly perennial shrubs strongly influenced by geology, geomorphological and trees, provides many benefits for agriculture and processes and vegetation livelihoods. Some supports crops directly, enriching the northern savannah ecological zones, where the soil by adding organic matter, fixing nitrogen, soils are classified into: entisols, which are recently maintaining mycorrhizal relationships with crop formed, well-drained sandy soils; alfisols or luvisols; roots and controlling pests. The bulk of the fodder ultisols or acrisols, which are more developed used in livestock production is supplied by natural and less base-rich than the alfisols; vertisols, vegetation growing in Nigeria’s vast rangelands. In comprising heavy cracking clays of high cation addition, natural vegetation, with its wildlife and rich content; and oxisols or nitosols, which are highly weathered and of low fertility status. biodiversity, is an important source of food, fodder, medicines, cultural artefacts and raw materials, The deeply weathered soils are rich in kaolinitic clays meeting various household needs. that retain little water or nutrients; they are inherently fragile, weak in structure and readily eroded by When managing natural vegetation in farming water or wind (NLUP, 2012). Hydromorphic soils are landscapes, it is important to maintain biological common along major river valleys and in the Niger corridors and safeguard biodiversity for pollination, Delta. According to NLUP (2012), the variability in soils honey-making and biological pest control, while largely accounts for the variability of agricultural land protecting species like Faidherbia albida and resources within Nigeria’s AEZs. These range from trees Dactyladenia (Acioa) barteri that are beneficial to crop and root crops in the south to cereals and livestock growth. Natural vegetation provides the main support in the north. Against climate change projections, or buffer mechanism for farming communities to the key to achieving sustainable soil management adapt to climate change. It serves as a livelihood safety is maintaining soil health and fertility. Retention or net that helps them overcome shocks from natural enhancement of soil organic matter content is crucial disasters and extreme climate events. Measures to for this purpose (FAO, 2013). Management practices protect natural vegetation are therefore central to that achieve this should be pursued to build resilience discussions concerning the management of natural to climate change. resources. CHAPTER 3: ENHANCING THE NATURAL RESOURCE BASE 21

socio-economic development. Regulated resource use 3.2 Ecosystem-Based is the key to sustaining the productive capacities of Natural Resources ecosystems and achieving this balance. The approach also strives to maintain the spatial and Management temporal characteristics of ecosystems, so that the component species and ecological processes can be Nigeria’s natural resources support many rural sustained while human wellbeing is supported and and urban communities. In addition to supplying improved (Living Earth, 2006). The focus on landscape ecosystem services, such as those described in the units allows production systems to be integrated with previous section, natural resources are critical to the natural resource base over defined areas that are ecosystem-based adaptation to climate change. large enough to yield vital ecosystem services, and Ecological infrastructure is an emerging concept small enough to be carried out by the people using that captures nature’s ability to absorb shocks and the land. It also helps to maximize gains from natural extremes. This includes the ability of mountain biological processes, minimizing the need for external catchments, wetlands and coastal systems to buffer inputs (FAO, 2013). against floods, fires and sea-level rise. This ecological infrastructure can also complement engineering Integrating this approach with agriculture promotes infrastructure in climate change mitigation. the diversification of farming systems to include, for example by introducing agroforestry and Ecosystem services that are in good condition also conservation agriculture. Such activities provide buffer against alien plants invading rangelands and long-term carbon sequestration benefits, thereby areas with high potential for livestock production. providing both mitigation and adaptation responses However, this has not always been recognized, to climate change. Additional benefits from including largely because the goods and services provided by agroforestry in the landscape include the contribution ecological infrastructure have, to date, been freely of nutrients when nitrogen-fixing trees are used, or available in relative abundance. Land degradation and increased incomes based on planting fruit trees like climate change, however, are rapidly undermining Irvingia spp. or high-value medicinal trees like Prunus the world’s ecological infrastructure and its ability to africana or Moringa oleifera (Okali, 2010). Improving support sustainable service delivery.

Each of Nigeria’s biomes (large geographical areas of distinctive plant, animal and soil groups, which are Goals adapted to that particular environment) provides a unique suite of ecosystem services. These include The goals and strategic objectives for the producing fodder, carbon sequestration, water storage, management of natural ecosystems are to: soil conservation and replenishment, timber resources, edible fruits, traditional medicines and recreation areas. Goal 1: Secure the sustainable use of natural A valuation of these services is critical for appreciating ecosystems for building agricultural resilience. the contribution they make to improved livelihoods Objective 1: Develop a policy framework for and the national economy. Ecosystem-based natural resources management. Ecosystem-based natural resources management is a Objective 2: Design and implement pilot holistic and robust approach that can harness these projects for Ecosystem-based natural resources services comprehensively in building agricultural management/agricultural production. resilience. (The equivalent concept for the marine environment is the large marine ecosystem approach.) Objective 3: Implement these projects. It is an adaptive management approach that seeks to Goal 2: Develop sound biome adaptation ensure the co-existence of healthy, fully functioning frameworks that address the vulnerabilities ecosystems with the optimal use of ecosystem of each biome to climate change and ensure components by human communities. It is based on sustainable natural resource management. managing landscape units by deploying resource- use guidelines that are ecologically sustainable Objective 1: Strengthen the knowledge and aligned with social, cultural and economic base for effective management of the natural considerations. This creates a balance between environment for agricultural resilience. conservation and the use of natural resources for 22 NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK incomes beyond subsistence (e.g., by developing practices, urbanization and expanding infrastructure, non-timber forest products value chains as a business) commercial logging, high demand for timber and fuel expands the buffer capacity of farming communities wood, overgrazing, population pressure on resources, and helps build resilience. weak institutions and policies, poverty and land tenure (World Bank, 2005). 3.3 Sustainable Land Instead, to feed the growing population, productivity increases will be need to be made through sustainable Management land management principles, which include the following: Land use changes account for about 65% of Africa’s greenhouse gas emissions, and land degradation Stem the degradation of existing agricultural land problems are intertwined with the risks and from desertification, erosion and pollution. vulnerabilities associated with climate change. Restore degraded land, including through the Changes in land use can affect the climate by altering remediation of land polluted and scarred by albedo – the fraction of solar energy or shortwave mining operations. radiation that is reflected from the Earth back into Improve the productivity of existing land by space. Socio-economic activity alters land cover adopting appropriate upgraded technologies, directly, affecting food, water and energy security. including expanding the area under irrigation. Land cover is most obviously affected by intensive Adopt and enforce land use policies that human impacts, such as clearing land for crops, defend agricultural land from encroachment by roads and urbanization, but there are also indirect unregulated uses, such as sprawling urbanization anthropogenic impacts that are less well understood. and industrialization. What is critically important is to understand the Reform and streamline access, tenure and drivers and implications of change, and how they ownership rights to enable equitable, gender- interact. Building resilience in agro-ecological systems balanced access and guarantee the security is therefore essential to planning the Nigerian of tenure that encourages investments in land agricultural revolution in a sustainable, climate-resilient improvement. way. Sustainable land management has been defined Goals as “the adoption of land use systems that, through appropriate management practices, enable land users The goals and strategic objectives for the to maximize the economic and social benefits from the management of land and soils are to: land while maintaining or enhancing the ecological support functions of the land resources” (Bisong, Goal 1: Upscale and mainstream sustainable 2011). Under sustainable land management, soils can land management in the nation’s development be conserved and improved by increasing organic process as a contribution to building agricultural matter content, adopting low-tillage techniques, resilience. using integrated pest management, controlled use of Objective 1: Support on-the-ground activities in chemical fertilizers, avoiding soil compaction, efficient all AEZs to halt land degradation. use of crop residues, and introducing cover crops and crop diversification into farming systems. Objective 2: Strengthen the policy and institutional environment for sustainable land But the challenges of climate change and management. environmental degradation have resulted in losses that threaten the productivity and sustainability Objective 3: Strengthen commercial of Nigeria’s land resources. About 46% of Nigeria’s and advisory services for sustainable land vast cultivable land area (71.2 million ha) is currently management and alternative livelihood options. used for agriculture (NLUP, 2012). Expanding the area Goal 2: Sustain soil productivity through cultivated with crops and grazed by livestock is not maintaining a high level of soil quality. an acceptable option, since this would cause land degradation through deforestation and the over- Objective 1: Enhance and sustain the health exploitation of marginal habitats. Other drivers of and fertility of soils. land degradation include inappropriate agricultural CHAPTER 3: ENHANCING THE NATURAL RESOURCE BASE 23

Sustainable land management is seen as an imperative Hydrological drought, where there is enough national investment that must be aligned to achieving water for agricultural purposes but the reduction long-term economic growth, guaranteeing food in precipitation causes shortfalls in surface or security, sustaining the ATA and conserving natural subsurface water supply (i.e., stream flow, reservoir resources. It is also imperative for building agricultural and lake levels, groundwater). resilience. Sources from the FMARD indicate that, Agricultural drought, which combines elements between 2005 and 2009, the share of public of both meteorological and hydrological droughts expenditure for sustainable land management in so that there is insufficient water to meet national budgets was about 1.71% (Bisong, 2009), and agricultural needs. remains very low even now. There is a need to upscale In the short term, good water resources management and mainstream sustainable land management in the – providing the right amount of water at the right nation’s budgetary and development processes. time and ensuring that existing water resources are not depleted faster than they are recharged – will raise 3.4 Water Resources agricultural production, upgrade economic benefits and help Nigeria progress into the next phase of Management economic development.

The drought of 1973 that affected Africa’s Sahel region It is necessary to determine agricultural water needs forced Nigeria to adapt its agriculture to cope with under different climate scenarios. To meet these water scarcity. This prompted the creation of River needs, water could be sourced from above or below Basin Development Authorities (RBDAs) within the ground. Surface and subsurface water sources should Federal Ministry of Water Resources (FMWR). The be monitored, measured and strategically managed initial approach to guard against future droughts was to meet the nation’s agricultural needs. This should to create large water bodies by building dams. This be done in collaboration with the FMWR. Farmers are strategy essentially remains the same today, but with key to the solution, with the support and guidance expanding horizons and tailor-made solutions. Nigeria of relevant ministries, departments and agencies and is now divided into eight watersheds (Figure 3.1). international organizations. The RBDAs each cover a watershed, with overlaps in At the peak of the rainy season, it is important to some cases. Watershed management by the FMWR is eliminate or limit the damage caused by floodwaters. spearheaded by the RBDAs. Excessive water energy can be managed through Irrigation and other water needs will assume greater reducing water velocity, for example by delaying flows. importance when climate change trends become the In preparation for the flood season, reducing riverbed norm. There are three types of drought to consider: slope and increasing the capacity of conveyance channels helps to attenuate flooding. All these flood Meteorological drought, defined usually on the control activities affect agriculture in a changing basis of the degree of dryness (in comparison to climate. The Flood Control Department of the Federal the norm or average amount) and the duration of Ministry of Environment (FME) and the Department the dry period. of Dams and Reservoir Operations of the FMWR are key players in this regard. In areas prone to seasonal flooding, flood recession agriculture and dry-season Figure 3.1 Watersheds in Nigeria farming should be encouraged to maximize the benefits of the nutrient-rich alluvial deposits that come with floods. The timing of planting and type of crop are key considerations in in combating climate change.

To determine the likely water resource management challenges for agriculture under changing climatic conditions, it is necessary to catalogue the entire water budget and compile a range of potential solutions, including small-scale water harvesting and storage. The FMWR and FME are the key ministries here. Similarly, there is a need to tackle irrigation in a holistic Source: FMWR manner. Decisions such as how and when to collect 24 NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK

diseases in crops, livestock and fisheries. Action may Goals include the strategic expansion and distribution of protected areas, mainly to strengthen in situ conservation of biodiversity in the wild. Conservation The goal and strategic objectives for water of agro-biodiversity can be enhanced by identifying management are to: and supporting farming landscapes or fisheries that Goal 1: Manage water resources effectively to contain species with desirable traits, paying due regard enhance agricultural growth and development to indigenous knowledge and practices. towards maximum yield and production, and Actions are also needed to strengthen the many provide adequate water for domestic use. approaches to ex situ conservation in Nigeria. These Objective 1: Collate and coordinate the various range from the concentration of germplasm in policies and information among different plantations, arboreta and gardens, to the creation ministries, departments and agencies. of gene banks in specialized laboratories and institutions like the International Institute of Tropical Objective 2: Build the capacity of water Agriculture (IITA). Additionally, there will be a need resources management personnel and end-users to review and strengthen the policy, legislative, to build agricultural resilience. institutional, administrative and law enforcement Objective 3: Define and measure water frameworks and arrangements that are in place resources for water banking, budgeting and to safeguard biodiversity and share the benefits disbursement of genetic resources equitably. In this regard, international agreements, including those dealing Objective 4: Plan for water needs and drainage with biosafety and the control of genetically modified accurately, with a lead time of at least one year. organisms, will need to be adapted to accommodate local realities. Actions to conserve biodiversity should be supported by efforts to increase understanding water for irrigation, where and how to store it, and of the characteristics and status of Nigeria’s whether the release should be total or partial, require biodiversity. This can be done through monitoring ongoing coordination and collaboration between and conducting inventories, complemented by multiple stakeholders. In addition, irrigation scheduling developing viable biotechnology expertise using and water sharing must be properly put in place to tissue culture and genetic engineering, among other minimize social conflict. techniques.

Moreover, there is a need to operate and work with The conservation of biodiversity should be the FME in getting the National Strategic Action complemented by ‘bio-prospecting’ Nigerian Plan implemented, especially the National Drought biodiversity to explore the potential for contributing to Preparedness Action Plan and corresponding Flood agricultural resilience. This biodiversity includes more Control Plans. There is also a need to intensify than 5000 species of vascular plants, 3000 fungi, 800 campaigns and practices to conserve water resources, algae, 240 mammals, 900 birds, 600 fish, 130 reptiles and to reach out to farming communities through and 100 amphibians, as well as the more than 22,000 the Extension Department of the FMARD with strong invertebrate species and over 500 viruses and bacteria support from the FMWR. that have been documented (NBSAP, 2006; NTWG, 2009).

3.5 Conserving The technical report on Environment and Sustainable Biodiversity Development for Vision 20:2020 (NTWG, 2009) draws attention to the threats to, and rapid depletion of, Biodiversity conservation is an important component Nigeria’s biodiversity. Natural and human-made threats, of ecosystem-based natural resources management the latter most likely related to over-exploitation and (see Section 3.2) but deserves special mention due unsustainable land use practices, are cited as the to its value in building and maintaining agricultural main contributors to biodiversity depletion. With resilience to climate change. Harnessing the genetic 12.59% of the country’s area designated as terrestrial variability of different species can help to improve and marine protected areas, Nigeria ranks 68th out the productivity and nutritional value of crops, as of 190 countries considered in the classification of well as guarding against outbreaks of new pests and protected areas. Terrestrial protected areas are defined CHAPTER 3: ENHANCING THE NATURAL RESOURCE BASE 25

Goals 3.6 Monitoring and Early Warning Systems The goal and strategic objectives of proposed interventions for biodiversity conservation are If farmers are to be prepared for the likely effects of to: climate change, they will need access to early warning systems for various climate-related hazards such as Goal 1: Maximize the sustainable use droughts and floods. Early warning systems are, in turn, of Nigeria’s rich biodiversity in building largely dependent on having adequate weather and agricultural resilience. hydrological data. Objective 1: Halt the further depletion of Nigeria’s biodiversity. Weather monitoring NIMET operates 54 manual synoptic meteorological Objective 2: Restore degraded biodiversity stations; an average of one per state, with a few hotspots of relevance to agriculture and rebuild states having more than one station. The stations eroded agro-biodiversity forms. are mostly located in the state capitals, or at airports, Objective 3: Review and strengthen the since the network was originally designed to provide institutional frameworks for sustainable use of aeronautical services. Figure 3.2 shows the location biodiversity in building agricultural resilience. of the surface observing networks. A few stations are designated as marine stations because they are located on the coast and combine surface with marine observations. The stations transmit data hourly to the as “totally or partially protected areas at least 1000 ha forecast offices for use, and monthly to the archiving in size that are designated by national authorities as unit for control and storage. In the last 10 years, a few scientific reserves with limited public access, national stand-alone automatic stations have been installed parks, natural monuments, nature reserves or wildlife within the existing network. sanctuaries, protected landscapes and areas managed mainly for sustainable use”. Marine protected areas are However, the present network of one station for “areas of intertidal or sub-tidal terrain – and overlying every 17,100 km2 is grossly inadequate and falls water and associated flora and fauna with historical below the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and cultural features – that have been reserved by law” recommended standard of one station for every 50 (Index Mundi, 2010a). km2. The stations are unevenly located spatially, with large data-sparse areas in the northern and central As the marine component is only 0.16% (Index Mundi, states. 2010b), the bulk of the protected area is terrestrial. This comprises one biosphere reserve, over 400 forest reserves of various sizes, eight national parks, 12 Figure 3.2 Location of Nigeria’s existing Strict Nature Reserves and 28 game reserves (Emma- meteorological observing stations Okafor et al., 2010). NTWG (2009) indicates that the protected area system in Nigeria covers only 5.7% of the landmass. This is far less than the 12.59% quoted above, or the 11% suggested by Aminu-Kano and Marguba (2002). The discrepancy may reflect the difference between the nominal size of protected areas, as documented by national authorities, and the actual situation on the ground. Adeyoju (2001) used a similar discrepancy between the frequently Latitude N cited nominal figure (10%) and the figure of less than 6% determined from actual survey, for the size of the Nigerian forest estate, to draw attention to the rapid rate of forest loss. If this analogy is valid, it points to an urgent need to act swiftly to safeguard the integrity of protected areas in Nigeria for biodiversity Longitude E conservation. 26 NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK

There are also about 500 rainfall stations located outside the NIMET controlled areas. These are manned Goals by voluntary observers, who send their data to NIMET data collection centres for archiving and quality The goal and strategic objectives for improving control. The number of voluntary observer stations climate, weather, hydrological and oceanographic has been increased recently by the METAGRI project, observational networks are to: financed by the Governments of Spain and the Netherlands through the WMO. Goal 1: Ensure the availability of data, as required for decision-support activities to promote To provide effective weather and climate monitoring, resilient agriculture. as well as predicting and issuing early warnings regarding high-impact weather events, there is Objective 1: Assess present weather, river and an urgent need to increase the density of the ocean observing station networks network. Improved meteorological services would greatly benefit agriculture, water resources, health, Objective 2: Identify gaps and required natural disaster mitigation and other environmental interventions challenges. NIMET proposes to increase the density of Objective 3: Prioritize needs with special its network from 54 to 1000 stations by establishing a attention to the food basket regions. network of Global System for Mobile Communications- enabled automatic weather stations. This will provide 2 data for every 1000 km and the expanded network under the Niger Basin Authority (an international river will reduce forecasting errors due to shortcomings in basin organization), the standard gauging stations are observations. These stations are expected to collect equipped only with staff gauges. Most of the RBDAs and transmit data at least every 10 minutes to a central and agencies do not carry out regular discharge location. The existing conventional synoptic stations measurements. The lack of these measurements and will still operate to provide backup data. There will be consequent inability to update ratings has brought one new station for each of the 774 local government the processing of hydrological data to a halt in most areas, with the remaining 226 stations placed agencies. Data processing in many agencies has to strategically in rural areas. be done manually because the RBDAs lack dedicated computers and have limited access to computers for Hydrological monitoring data processing and storage.

The available information on the state of water Efforts to improve Nigeria’s hydrological services resources and its management in Nigeria is should include: fragmented, scarce, often out-dated and, in most cases, of doubtful quality. Stakeholders’ access to a mapping exercise for all hydrologic activities in all the agencies involved data is far from satisfactory, with no common water information database. The lack of well-defined an evaluation of the institutional coordination jurisdictional boundaries and the absence of a mechanism and the establishment of a legal coordinated approach is also partly responsible for the framework to provide a basis for the operation poor availability and quality of hydrological data. of the various agencies providing hydrological services Responsibility for collecting and disseminating rationalizing and strengthening of the existing hydrological data is shared by several organisations: network, with a view to generating quality data the RBDAs, the National Inland Waterways Authority, and information to address the needs of the water the Power Holding Company of Nigeria and the State sector and sectors related to water Water Boards. The NIHSA, under the FMWR, is charged a capacity-building mechanism to train those with with supervising activities relating to the collection the responsibility of operating the hydrological and processing of hydrological data. network (e.g., National Water Resources Institute in collaboration with universities) Although it is estimated that Nigeria has a surface- water monitoring network of over 700 stations, there a quality management framework to ensure that is no comprehensive inventory or any other form of all data collection activities are performed within metadata about these. Apart from the 18 automatic given standard practices monitoring stations with satellite telemetry maintained a national water information system being set up. CHAPTER 3: ENHANCING THE NATURAL RESOURCE BASE 27

Department of Extension Services, which cuts 3.7 Conclusions across all departments and disciplines connected to increasing agricultural productivity in the Enhancing the natural resource base to improve the face of climate change. This includes agricultural resilience of agriculture to climate change will require engineering, water resources management, action across all sectors, and involve a wide range of irrigation and soil conservation. The need stakeholders. Government policy should address the for continuous support to this developing following areas: department from all others cannot be overemphasized. By empowering the agriculture sector economically, technologically and through The mainstreaming of gender issues into all knowledge, the Federal Government aims agricultural activities, including advocacy, to reduce the trend of young people leaving programme formulation and project agriculture by creating greater opportunities for management, is a vital for their success. wealth creation in the sector. Harmonization among all stakeholders on Government policy in terms of transparency the objectives of agricultural resilience is and efficiency will be maintained, including needed. There should be a clear, overarching accountability at all levels of activities and at all policy framework that defines the roles and levels of government. This is the same for civil responsibilities of all actors. society and international organizations. Farmers and farmers’ associations and The Federal Government will promote the groups must have a well-defined platform adoption of appropriate land use planning for cooperation and the exchange of ideas, and practices. Rehabilitation and restoration information and practices. of degraded lands and upgrading marginal agricultural land through appropriate soil conservation practices will be the main 3.8 References approaches for this. Adeyoju, K. 2001. ‘Forestry for national development: All environments, flora and fauna that are under a critique of the Nigerian situation’. In: Popoola (ed.) threat should be protected. Preventing species Proceedings of a National Workshop organized by extinctions is vital for maintaining the resilience of FANCONSULT and Edo State Chapter of FAN held in Benin agriculture. City, Edo State 5–6 September 2002. The Federal Government should ensure water capture, conservation and efficient irrigation, Aminu-Kano, M. and Marguba, L.B. 2002. ‘History of using all necessary and provable methods of water conservation in Nigeria’. In: Augustine U. Ezealor (ed.) collection and use. To this end, total cooperation Critical Sites for Biodiversity Conservation in Nigeria. and collaboration between the ministries, Lagos, Nigeria: Nigerian Conservation Foundation. departments and agencies that promote agriculture become imperative. These institutions should Bisong, F.E. 2009. Institutional Analysis for Sustainable adopt the principles of integrated water resources Land Management (SLM) Budgeting and Public management to ensure sustainable water use for all Expenditure in Nigeria. Report to IFPRI. Washington, DC, stakeholders, including the natural environment. USA: International Food Policy Research Institute. Policymakers should strongly support and Bisong, F.E. 2011. Nigeria Strategic Investment Framework encourage research institutes and universities to develop, acquire and adapt their research to (NSIF) for Sustainable Land Management (SLM): Phase the challenge of climate change. Disseminating 1, Cross River State (2011–2020). Abuja, Nigeria: Report appropriate technology is essential and there to National Fadama Development Office and Federal should be a focus on proven, workable science Ministry of Agriculture. and well-tested technologies. Emma-Okafor, L.C., Ibeawuchi, I.I. and Obiefuna, The use of agricultural engineering should be J.C. 2010. Biodiversity conservation for sustainable increased and sustained, especially in the areas agriculture in tropical rainforest of Nigeria. New York of farm power, farm machinery, soil conservation, Science Journal 3(1). agricultural dams and irrigation practices, farm structures and sustainable land development. FAO. 2013. Climate-Smart Agriculture: Source Book. The Federal Government has created a Rome, Italy: Food and Agriculture Organization of the new advocacy and policy instrument in the United Nations. 28 NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK

Index Mundi. 2010a. ‘Terrestrial and marine protected NTWG. 2009. Report of the Vision 20:2020 National areas in Nigeria’. Available at: www.indexmundi.com/ Technical Working Group on Environment and facts/nigeria/protected-areas Sustainable Development. Abuja, Nigeria: Nigeria Vision 20:2020 Programme. Index Mundi. 2010b. ‘Nigerian marine protected areas’. Available at: www.indexmundi.com/facts/nigeria/ Okali, D. 2010. Climate change and its implication for marine-protected-areas agricultural development and sustainable natural resources management in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Living Earth. 2006. Ecosystem-Based Natural Resources Nature & Faune 25(1): 4–6. Management in Cross River State. Ottawa, Canada: Canadian International Development Agency and One World Bank. 2005. World Development Report. A Better Sky Canadian Institute of Sustainable Living. Investment in Climate for Everyone. Washington, DC, USA: World Bank. NBSAP. 2006. National Biodiversity Strategy Action Plan. Abuja, Nigeria: Federal Ministry of Environment.

NLUP. 2012. National Land Use Policy. Abuja, Nigeria: Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development.

4 Climate Change Adaptation in Agricultural Planning 32 NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK

The Inter-Ministerial Committee, recently constituted 4.1 Introduction by the President to draft the National Framework on Application of Climate Services (NFACS), is expected The process of mainstreaming climate change into to provide the backing from the Federal Government agricultural planning and development involves needed to integrate climate information in a multi- assessing the risks posed by climate change, then disciplinary approach and enhance socio-economic adjusting development activities to take these into development in a sustainable manner. The NFACS account. This process can be called ‘climate-proofing’ should enable Nigeria to better manage climate- and will enhance the sustainability and impact of related risks and harness the associated opportunities adaptation programmes. The clear objectives are in the context of achieving sustainable development. to reduce vulnerability and build resilience among The specific objectives of the NFACS are to: stakeholders. create partnerships among various climate It is important to integrate climate change into services producers, policymakers, planners and research and development in a coordinated manner, users through the research–operations–applications chain. enable the producers and users of climate For example, the development of flood- or drought- information to join forces to improve the quality tolerant crops can be linked to climate research and quantity of climate services nationwide, regarding the areas where adverse conditions are most particularly in vulnerable communities likely to occur, and to on-farm trials and sensitization reduce the vulnerability of communities to activities with farmers. This chapter examines efforts climate-related hazards through better availability in Nigeria being undertaken by the public and private and provision of climate services sectors, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), mainstream the use of climate information in community-based organizations (CBOs), and regional national development policies and strategies, such and international organizations towards achieving this as the Vision 20:2020 Transformation Agenda. goal. It also offers strategies that could be scaled up and used more widely in the future. 4.3 Climate Change 4.2 Application of Adaptation in Nigerian Climate Data Agriculture

Climate information services from the NIMET provide As the climate becomes more unpredictable, a vital input to national development planning. For agricultural practices will need to adapt in an example, the Seasonal Rainfall Prediction provides anticipatory (proactive), reactive, or planned manner comprehensive rainfall data, including onset and (IPCC, 2001). Of these, planned adaptation as a result cessation dates and total rainfall amounts for every of deliberate policy decisions is considered to be part of Nigeria. This is particularly useful for planning the most cost-effective and offers the most long- in agriculture, water resources, transportation, term benefits for resource use and the environment. construction and hydroelectric power generation. Examples relevant to the Nigerian agriculture sector The NIMET issues this at the beginning of every year. include: The prediction includes an assessment of how the supplying and adopting drought- or disease- changes in rainfall patterns will affect communities resistant, salt-tolerant and early-maturing crop and livelihoods and is accompanied by community- varieties based awareness programmes, conducted in providing timely weather forecasts and early conjunction with the WMO. The aim is to show rural warnings to guide planting activities farmers the usefulness of weather and climate data in agriculture, and how they can best plan their enhancing agricultural extension services to improve farm productivity activities to avoid weather-related losses. The NIMET also works with the Federal Ministry of Environment entrenching a credit and insurance culture in (FME) to provide a Flood Early Warning Service, agricultural communities while the FMARD has a Drought Contingency Plan expanding and optimizing existing irrigation that involves several other government agencies, infrastructure to reduce crop failures due to delays including the NIMET. in rainfall CHAPTER 4: CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION IN AGRICULTURAL PLANNING 33

diversifying livelihood portfolios to improve management. Mainstreaming climate change household incomes adaptation successfully into the FMARD’s programmes increasing crop storage facilities and promoting requires clear policies on adaptation. These should agro-processing to reduce post-harvest losses be developed in broad consultation with staff and stakeholders, from ministry to farm level. It calls for developing markets for existing and new crops a process to integrate climate change adaptation introducing a range of livestock management into all aspects of adaptation programmes, from the activities to reduce climate stress while analysis phase through design and implementation to maintaining high productivity, including monitoring and evaluation. This must be accompanied investments in pastoralism and grazing reserves, by a strategy to ensure that the working environment as well as a move to more sedentary livestock is sensitive to climate change issues (e.g., consideration management systems of climate-related issues in budgets) and that sufficient developing aquaculture value chains, including technical capacity, institutional arrangements and promoting mariculture (cultivating organisms in human resources are available. the open ocean) managing flood-prone areas and stabilizing gullies Transfer mechanisms and erosion sites The climate-related risks faced by agriculture encouraging the sustainable management of businesses include flooding (direct damage to assets forest, fishing and water resources. and indirect damage via supply chain disruption), As stated in Chapter 1, adaptation options will storms, heat waves, droughts, threats to water combine scientific research with laboratory- or pilot- availability, pest invasions, crop failures, harmful scale projects. These will lead to field-scale projects algal blooms and the decimation of livestock. A that demonstrate the framework and capacity strategic plan would introduce risk transfer and risk to mitigate the impacts of climate change. The management options into the agriculture sector processes involved are highlighted in Chapter 5. Many and enable their rapid and widespread deployment technologies and practices can deliver both resilience through communication technologies, including to climate change and lower greenhouse gas mobile phones. emissions per unit production. The target should be to There are a few good examples of micro-insurance mainstream climate change adaptation into all existing helping communities vulnerable to climate change and new policies in the key sectors, especially those of in Africa. For example, the Horn of Africa Risk Transfer critical importance to food security. for Adaptation project in Ethiopia is helping farmers to access loans. They use the money to buy farm 4.4 Strategic Action inputs, with the support of a national organization that provides agricultural extension services, including Plan for Mainstreaming securing better market access. The Micro-Ensure programme in Malawi introduced one of Africa’s first Climate Change weather-index crop-insurance schemes during the Adaptation 2005–2006 growing season. A strategic action plan for mainstreaming climate Capacity building change adaptation will address the organizational environment in which policies and programmes are The FMARD’s staff and all stakeholders in the agriculture developed and implemented. Such a plan for the sector need to understand the importance and agriculture sector could have four inter-related stages: relevance of climate change and community-based improving the knowledge base; transfer mechanisms, adaptation. Capacity can be developed through capacity building; and monitoring and evaluation. briefings, training materials and short courses for staff and partners. It is also important to provide regular Improving the knowledge base opportunities for knowledge and information to be shared among staff and partners working in different This stage involves strengthening the overall policy and sectors. It is important to note that capacity building institutional framework for planning and implementing takes time. It is also essential to periodically assess the climate change adaptation in the agriculture sector, stage reached by stakeholders and to identify priority including resource mobilization and information issues, setting definable, realistic and measurable goals. 34 NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK

Poor agro-meteorological, hydro-meteorological Monitoring and evaluation and tide-gauge coverage in the country, and It is important to establish processes for measuring consequent poor weather and river/sea-level the FMARD’s effectiveness in mainstreaming and forecasting capabilities. supporting community-based adaptation. Managing The lack of new and innovative adaptation the change will require continuous monitoring and measures to climate change in the agriculture dialogue within the FMARD to assess progress and sector. approaches. This will provide opportunities to test and The lack of procedures and screening tools for refine mainstreaming tools, to improve understanding integrating climate considerations into project of climate change adaptation issues of relevance to evaluations. strategic planning and priorities, and to build the capacity of staff and partners to integrate climate The continued prevalence of gender- change adaptation into their work. The process of differentiated needs and roles in society that put mainstreaming should be viewed as open-ended: women at a disadvantage in terms of access to while organizations should aim to achieve the land, credit and farm inputs. objectives and targets of a strategic plan, they should Few climate-resilient agricultural development also aim to make continuous improvements to their initiatives at the national, state and local approach. Lessons learned can be integrated into government levels the design of new programmes and implementation The lack of access to loans for farmers and, when strategies. The long-term outcome of mainstreaming loans are available, the operation of unrealistic climate change adaptation will be greater and more interest rates and repayment schemes that take equitable sustainable human development, not just no account of farming cycles. for stakeholders in the agriculture sector but also for all A poor insurance culture in the agriculture citizens. sector, due in part to certain religious beliefs but also to the lack of liberalization of the 4.5 Barriers to agricultural insurance business. The continued emphasis on high-carbon Integrating Climate policies and practices, which are locked into the Change Adaptation country’s economic fabric and which are costly and impractical to reverse. A series of ‘Town Hall’ meetings arranged by Poor levels of mechanization in agriculture the ACARN brought together farmers and other production systems. stakeholders in Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones Weak culture and systems for organizing farmers to discuss issues relating to climate change. The into effective cooperatives. meetings revealed real barriers to mainstreaming adaptation into agricultural development planning. A poor value chain culture, which has negative Even some measures presently contained in impacts on preserving and storing produce, agriculture policy have the potential to exacerbate, including agricultural processing. rather than attenuate, the impacts of climate change. The lack of commodity markets and price The Federal Government should review all national stabilization mechanisms. agriculture and related policies and programmes Limited investment in research, including the to determine the revisions required. Such a review application of genetic modification schemes should address the following challenges and barriers: in the search for new adaptive varieties or A dearth of efficient and effective agricultural species. extension services. A failure to recognize the supportive role of Poor or inadequate delivery systems preventing the natural environment as a resource of the timely availability of agro-inputs, adulteration and goods and services that are critical to successful high cost of inputs, poor storage, etc. agriculture. Low levels of education in agricultural Attempts to overcome these barriers should communities. use principles of adaptive management and Low levels of involvement of educated young participatory engagement as the central tenets of people in the agriculture sector. the overall implementation strategy. CHAPTER 4: CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION IN AGRICULTURAL PLANNING 35

ministries across different sectors (agriculture, water 4.6 The Role of resources, environment, economic planning, etc.), Institutions parastatal agencies supporting the line ministries (e.g., National Environmental Standards and Several different institutions have the responsibility for Regulations Enforcement Agency, National Emergency implementing climate change adaptation initiatives at Management Agency), and relevant ministries or different scales. These include government institutions, commissions at the state level, amongst others. Box 4.1 CSOs, regional organizations, the research community, highlights some specific roles. development partners and the private sector. Structured interactions and partnerships between Private sector these organizations are essential. Understanding The private sector, both national and international, the specific roles and responsibilities in shaping the has a dominant role to play in realizing the Federal adaptive capacity of Nigerian agriculture is central Government policy to categorize agriculture as for planning responses. This section looks at these a business. The private sector has the required institutions and their specific roles. experience, skills, structures and financial resources to Government institutions scale up agriculture from its present subsistence level to become an industrial, mechanized practice. It has Government institutions in Nigeria include a the ability and incentive to champion innovation and broad range of actors providing functions within to ensure marketability and profit. Specific roles for the the domain of the state entity. They include line private sector are highlighted in Box 4.2.

Box 4.1 The role of government institutions in climate change adaptation

Make policies: Developing dynamic agriculture the activities and efforts of other ministries in terms systems that are capable of adapting to extreme of good adaptation practices. This will ensure that climate-related events requires a conducive, stable interventions are organized in a coherent manner policy environment. Unfortunately, this has been to deliver national adaptation outcomes. This could lacking in Nigeria. The central function of the FMARD harmonize efforts in sectors such as forestry, fisheries, is to make appropriate national policies for climate water and environment within a set of adaptation change adaptation. These provide an operational goals, as stipulated in an overarching policy framework for governing the diverse adaptation framework. responses and practices at national level, and for mainstreaming climate change adaptation into Initiate and lever investments: The Federal Nigeria’s economic development plans. Government should scale up investments to develop specific adaptation measures, particularly those that Provide leadership and create an enabling concentrate on Nigeria’s most urgent needs. Such environment: The Federal Government needs to investments could leverage funds from international provide leadership on climate change policy, either initiatives and financing mechanisms that assist towards sensitization programmes or by creating an countries with climate change adaptation. These enabling environment in which important actors can investments could also demonstrate the Federal contribute to agricultural adaptation. An example is Government’s leadership to other actors involved in the need for constant communication on how climate adaptation. change affects the country’s long-term economic growth, social goals and vision. The Federal Government Foster cooperation and partnerships: As Nigeria’s should also initiate conversations on adaptation by focal point at international conventions, the Federal organizing multi-stakeholder workshops and forums. Government has an institutional role to foster new cooperation with international and local partners. This Coordinate the agriculture sector: Agriculture will help to harness technical, financial, institutional cuts across many ministries. As the lead and managerial resources to support local adaptation institution, the FMARD is responsible for coordinating initiatives. 36 NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK

Box 4.2 The role of the Box 4.3 The role of CSOs in private sector in climate climate change adaptation change adaptation Policy advocacy: Advocating for policies, both Use the enabling environment: The design and implementation, that provide robust private sector should be encouraged to take and coherent responses to climate change full advantage of the favourable enabling is a core function of civil society. Using their environment – economic, social and political experience, CSOs bring the climate challenges – afforded by the ATA to scale up production confronting the population and the agriculture practices. sector to the attention of other institutions, especially the Federal Government. Through their Form equal partnerships: Public–private networks, CSOs can raise national awareness of partnerships are likely to succeed and flourish climate change, on policy choices that address when the private sector is a viable partner, in the issues, and on mobilizing the required terms of sourcing technology and injecting resources to effect policy change. additional resources into agriculture. Be a conduit for local voices and Involve the community: Public–private– operations: CSOs are close to the agricultural community partnerships are even more desirable. communities who make adaptation decisions They have the added benefit of creating on the ground and often bring the voices and catalysing relationships that will help smallholder opinions of these communities to national farmers access inputs, insurance and micro- attention. They support the development of local credit. But perhaps even more importantly, these adaptation practices, especially those related partnerships can link smallholders to viable to farming, diversifying livelihoods and using markets, which transforms the rural economy indigenous knowledge in coping mechanisms. while achieving food security and sustainable development through agriculture. Local implementation: Designing a national policy on adaptation is not sufficient; it is vital to ensure local implementation of the choices and Civil society organizations actions. For example, a policy to provide drought- tolerant seedlings must be accompanied by local CSOs include international, national and local actors adoption and practice. An increasing role for working at different levels and in a range of areas CSOs is to act as a bridge between national policy of interest. They may include NGOs, conservation systems and local implementation systems. CSOs groups, media houses, religious organizations, gender- can also support policy implementation through based social groups, trade unions and community capacity building, on-farm skill development and institutions. In the context of climate change practical demonstrations for farmers. adaptation, CSOs provide important and diverse functions (see Box 4.3). systems. International cooperation involving Regional organizations Cameroon, Chad, Niger and Nigeria is promoting a The main role for most regional organizations is to collaborative approach to combat desertification. initiate and influence international cooperation among While there is no sector-specific regional institution relevant countries. They contribute to tackling issues focused on climate change in Nigeria, the experiences such as poverty, hunger, disease and malnutrition – of regional institutions across other sectors can help factors that further exacerbate vulnerability to climate respond to climate challenges. Adaptation strategies risks. By addressing these problems, for example must become a central consideration for all these through trade liberalization, market development, institutions, while individual organizational experience and access to credit facilities, regional organizations in managing economic, social and infrastructure are also contributing to adaptation in the agriculture interests can be useful in developing appropriate sector. For example, the Lake Chad River Basin has strategies The experiences and technologies of been affected by climate change over the last few regional organizations can also help to manage decades, with negative effects on its agricultural trans-boundary issues relevant to meeting national CHAPTER 4: CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION IN AGRICULTURAL PLANNING 37 adaptation needs and priorities. For example, a plan Development partners to construct a road from Lagos to Dakar along the Atlantic coast could integrate measures to protect Development partners include those who against potential sea-level rise in its design. This could provide technical, financial, institutional and mitigate future inland flooding that might affect managerial functions in virtually all sectors, either as agricultural lands and local livelihoods. representatives of another country or of the global community. Examples include bilateral partners, One major regional initiative is the Framework development banks, intergovernmental organizations for the Adaptation of West African Agriculture to and United Nations agencies. In terms of climate Climate Change. This guides agricultural policies change support, many provide vital services to in the Economic Community of West African Nigeria’s agriculture sector. Box 4.5 highlights the roles States (ECOWAS) countries. The draft framework of these development partners. was developed for the International Workshop on Adaptation to Climate Change in West African Agriculture, held in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso in Box 4.5 The role of April 2009. This was revised in 2010 in collaboration development partners in with the Permanent Interstates Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS) and the WMO. Box 4.4 sets climate change adaptation out the activities in the current framework. Create financing opportunities: Many development partners working on climate Box 4.4 Framework for the change and related issues have invested adaptation of West African in the agriculture sector. These include the agriculture to climate change United Nations Development Programme, United Nations Environment Programme, African Development Bank, and Food and Assess the types of beneficial adaptation and mitigation practices and responses that could Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. be promoted and adopted in the region, They have supported initiatives from macro and compile a list of adaptation-related best policy development on climate resilience to practices. implementing micro policies. Development partners can draw on a wide range of expertise Conduct research on the impacts of climate change on agriculture in the various agro- and collaborate with multiple stakeholders ecological zones of West Africa (since previous to deliver adaptation services that increases research in this field remains largely insufficient). incomes and improve the welfare of Nigerian producers. Increase engagement with policymakers to provide the evidence needed to justify Provide knowledge and programme investments in development programmes and management: Development partners are policy change. conduits for global and local knowledge on Initiate and strengthen cooperation among the good adaptation practices in the agriculture region’s universities and research institutions, sector. They support the design of knowledge international organizations and NGOs to create systems that can fit into local technologies for opportunities to strengthen institutions, develop adaptation purposes. Providing the required human resources and reinforce capacities to face technical and managerial oversight for the impacts of climate change. adaptation programmes is core to their work in Encourage research into new crop varieties with many developing countries, including Nigeria. tolerance to extreme climatic conditions. Moreover, as development work is at the heart Integrate farming systems with agroforestry, of their operations and mandate, they are often supplemental irrigation and water and soil able to gain the political buy-in of government conservation techniques. institutions to highlight adaptation as a priority. Adapt meteorological and climatic information Provide policy advocacy: Many development to producers’ needs by improving the spatial and partners have been advocating for policy change temporal scales of forecasts and by providing advice on tactical and strategic decisions. CONTINUED 38 NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK

2004, ahead of its coming into force on 10 March for economic and social development in Nigeria 2005. for years. When successful, this has supported the mainstreaming of climate change adaptation into Nigeria made a further political commitment to national development planning. Additionally, in climate change through the Special Climate Change many cases, other non-state actors (particularly Directorate in 2006 under the aegis of the FMARD. civil society and research institutions) have This Directorate is charged with implementing the worked with development partners to secure actions of the UNFCCC, the Kyoto Protocol and government attention on climate change for the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). adaptation. Examples include workshops on Its membership is drawn from the ministries of the impacts of poor education, information Finance, Agriculture and Water Resources; the and human capital as limiting smallholders’ Energy Commission; Nigeria National Petroleum development in Nigeria. Like civil society Corporation; Department of Foreign Affairs; the networks, international and donor organizations NIMET; industry partners; NGOs and academia. The in Nigeria see themselves as a stimulating force Special Climate Change Directorate is working with in policy advocacy, because they finance training the private sector and has initiated credible Clean and education programmes with a particular Development Mechanism projects that promise both emphasis on adaptation. An example is the environmental and economic benefits to the country. Coalitions 4 Change programme, funded by the UK Department for International Development, Nigeria is also adopting an approach that mimics which supports cooperation between local NGOs the Bali Plan of Action (2007), with the devolution and government agencies. of implementation of climate change actions to state and local government levels. The main pillars of this action plan are: a new financial mechanism; an adaptation framework; a technology mechanism; Research and scientific and a capacity building component. It calls for community an effective institutional setting for the pursuit of agricultural resilience in Nigeria. Furthermore, Nigeria’s The research and scientific community, which Climate Change Policy was adopted by the Federal includes policy think-tanks, has variety of strategic Executive Council in late 2012. A Bill for climate change roles that include: legislation is inching closer to completion. Nigeria generating and interpreting scientific knowledge is also finalizing important procedural documents, on climate impacts, vulnerability and adaptation including the National Emissions Mitigation Strategy, options at different scales. a National Climate Change Adaptation Plan and the building the necessary skills and attitudes to Second Communication. allow the adoption of adaptation measures in In 2012, the National Assembly passed a Bill to agriculture. establish a National Climate Change Commission creating a ‘basket’ of solutions for various with responsibility for “strategic planning and scenarios in climate change adaptation, and coordination of national policies in the field of highlighting best practices and lessons learned. climate change and energy in all its ramifications” promoting active responses to climate change in (Nigeria National Assembly, 2011). The Commission the agriculture sector. will be a clearing house and implementation authority for all climate change matters, which 4.7 Climate Change- includes determining appropriate levels of funding for mitigation and adaptation projects, technology Related Governance acquisition, market incentives, human resources development and investments in research and Since May 1992, Nigeria has maintained its early development towards sustained economic interest in the UNFCCC’s processes because it advancement. This will help Nigeria to overcome a recognized that the risks of a ‘business as usual’ common obstacle – the lack of integration between approach to climate change, or worse still, a economic and environmental decision-making. ‘do nothing’ approach, would be too grave to contemplate. Nigeria ratified the Convention in 1994 As of March 2015, the Bill is awaiting the President’s and signed up to the Kyoto Protocol in December approval. The chances that the President will CHAPTER 4: CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION IN AGRICULTURAL PLANNING 39 agree to the Bill seem high in the light of hazard assessment at regional and national recent pronouncements and actions, such the levels establishment in early 2013 of an Inter-ministerial the use of crop and economic models to explore Committee on Climate Services. Nigeria was adaptation and mitigation strategies recently elected as a member of the United Nations governance, institutions and the role of different Security Council –the second time that it has been actors (e.g., public, private and social sectors, elected to the Council under the current Presidency basin residents and international organizations). (2010/11 and 2014/15). Nigeria now has a unique opportunity to influence the global environmental There have also been discussions on setting up an agenda and address the strategic priorities and agricultural resilience fund. The Bill to set up the interests of Africa. Top of the list is the need for National Climate Change Commission provides for global action in combating the devastating effects “a fund into which all the monies accruable to the of climate change on livelihoods and national Commission shall be paid and from which all the economies. activities of the Commission shall be funded”. This is the equivalent of a Climate Fund and would provide Roles for the FMARD a pot from which the various economic sectors, including agriculture, could obtain their finances. The National Policy for Climate Change sets out specific initiatives for individual sectors. For But there should also be a separate agricultural the agriculture sector, it calls for an integrated resilience fund to complement the National Climate intervention plan to reduce the sector’s vulnerability Change Commission provision. Indeed, the National to climate change and enhance its productivity. Policy on Climate Change explicitly recognizes the The issues of vulnerability to the impacts of climate need for individual sectors to pursue additional change and the necessity to instil resilience in the measures against climate change. Categorizing sector are complex, and need specific attention agriculture as a business invites greater involvement from the FMARD. Considering the likelihood that by the private sector in building finances to tackle the National Climate Change Commission will be climate change and develop climate-resilient established, it is imperative that the FMARD has agriculture. The private sector has many comparative an in-house structure to liaise effectively with this advantages, including organized structures, Commission and ensure agriculture gets its share of experience, money and trained personnel, and national attention. will engage constructively in efforts to mitigate the shocks and stresses imposed by the changing The FMARD has already established an Environment climate. It understands the marketability and the and Climate Change Unit within the Department of profitability of climate-resilient agriculture and is Land Resources. While this is a positive development, willing to back that appreciation with the necessary the Unit is currently understaffed, underfunded and level of investment. undervalued. This does not augur well for the future of agricultural resilience in Nigeria and must be addressed as soon as possible. 4.8 Conclusions

The ACARN is well placed to assist the FMARD Mainstreaming climate change adaptation into in building the necessary capacity to undertake agriculture planning and development in Nigeria vulnerability assessments and implement adaptation should be approached from the standpoint that it is a measures. Climate resilience must become part of the necessity for sustainable development. There must be core competencies of relevant staff, both within the a greater emphasis on the principle that food security, Federal Government and in the business sector. This poverty eradication, economic empowerment and can be achieved through conceptual and practical social stability are the main priorities in a developing training in such areas as: country like Nigeria.

the creation and use of climate and socio- While the FMARD will lead efforts to mainstream economic scenarios for agricultural planning and climate change in the agriculture sector, it will need statistical assessments to adopt an integrated approach that engages with process-based methods and geographic all sectors of the economy to plan, implement and information system techniques for the rapid operate identified programmes and activities for evaluation of food production and high-impact adaptation to climate change. 40 NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK

4.9 References

IPCC. 2001. Climate change 2001: The scientific basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Houghton, J.T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D.J., Noguer, M., van der Linden, P.J., Dai, X., Maskell, K. and Johnson C.A. (eds). Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press.

Nigeria National Assembly. 2011. A Bill for an Act to Establish the National Climate Change Commission of Nigeria and for Other Matters Connected Therewith. Abuja, Nigeria: Nigeria National Assembly. Available at: www.nassnig.org/nass2/legislation.php?id=1423 5 Research and Development for Climate-Resilient Agriculture

CHAPTER 5: RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT FOR CLIMATE-RESILIENT AGRICULTURE 43

It is important that socio-economic research clearly 5.1 Introduction and scientifically assesses the level of impact of climate change on different actors in the agriculture On their own, most small-scale farmers would not be value chain. Apart from the direct impacts on crops, able to withstand the shocks and stresses that climate livestock and fisheries (described in previous chapters), change is likely to bring. They would be caught in the indirect impacts of climate change on livelihoods a downward spiral of diminishing yields, poverty, include the effects of pests and diseases, the loss of hunger and ill health, from which they would struggle stored products, and the loss of housing, schools, to escape. To build their resilience to climate change, roads and other infrastructure due to flooding – as they need new knowledge and technologies, together occurred in Nigeria in 1999, 2011 and 2012). with information that allows them to make the best decisions, such as what crop to plant where and when. Social factors also affect the success of efforts to build farmers’ resilience to climate change. Different groups Nigeria currently has the largest national agricultural need different types of support to address their own research system in sub-Saharan Africa but it is still specific vulnerabilities, based on their livelihood too small: in 2012, the country allocated only US$150 strategy, location, social status or gender. For example, million to agricultural research, equivalent to two evidence shows that women’s relatively reduced weeks of its imports. Nigeria’s goal is to become ‘Africa’s access to critical resources, entitlements and decision- Brazil’ in terms of agricultural efficiency, returns to making processes impedes agricultural development. smallholder farmers and international competitiveness. Research can help by finding ways for climate-resilient But this can only be met if it develops an African technologies, practices and institutions to enable and version of Brazil’s Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa increase (rather than further reduce) women’s access Agropecuária (EMBRAPA) – a competitively funded, to benefits and participation in agriculture resilience. highly professional national agricultural research system. The climate resilience agenda must therefore include a major boost for the research agenda. Box 5.1 Research priorities for vulnerability, targeting The following sections of this chapter highlight the six thematic priorities for research on climate resilience and institutions in Nigerian agriculture: vulnerability, targeting and social institutions; agricultural management Rather than relying purely on climate systems; breeding for future climates; post-harvest models to steer climate interventions, integrate analyses of people’s capacity and management; landscapes, ecosystems and carbon; vulnerability. This will help develop locally and climate data and knowledge systems. appropriate research investments that are tailored to and targeted at specific places and social groups, including gender-specific 5.2 Vulnerability, research. targeting and Undertake regular assessments of the impact and costs of droughts, floods institutions and soil erosion to farming and fishing communities. Targeting research resources to those who need them most is a key strategy to ensure they are used in a cost- Develop and test cost-effective processes effective way. The IPCC includes three components for participatory climate diagnosis in its assessments of vulnerability to climate change: and planning. A good example is the International Fund for Agricultural projected climate impacts; sensitivity of the system Development’s participatory landscape to those impacts; and the adaptive capacity of the planning approach for climate resilience in impacted system or community. Impacts are usually the northern states of Nigeria. estimated using climate models, while participatory Assess and improve all climate-resilient methods are better suited to understanding and practices and technologies in terms of building on the adaptive capacities of farmers and their access and utility for gender-specific institutions. Integrating impact-based and capacity- application. based approaches to increase resilience is especially important given the uncertainty of future climate change (Vermeulen et al., 2013). CONTINUED 44 NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK

Engage extension services and farmers Resource management in the in the research process to set a research dryland areas agenda that is informed by their needs. This will also help to enable field-testing of Nigeria’s drylands are particularly vulnerable to climate climate-resilient practices and technologies, change. With drought a constant threat, soils that are and accelerate channels for adoption and already poor and being further degraded by erosion. up-scaling (see Section 5.3). Overgrazing and deforestation have also caused Investigate cost-effective mechanisms for desertification. Under current management practices, building on existing institutions at the local much of the rainfall is lost through evapotranspiration level and work closely with the Nigerian and runoff. As a result, groundwater is recharged Agricultural Extension and Rural Liaison only by seepage through the soil profile. Surface Services. runoff events, soil moisture storage and groundwater Improve early warning systems and recharge are generally more variable and less networks with up-to-date information reliable than in more humid regions. Successful technology, so emergency relief can rapidly dryland farming therefore requires the integrated reach affected communities particularly management of soil, water, crops and plant nutrients. women and children. There are research-based interventions from other Increase investments in processes for dryland areas that should be pilot-tested in Nigeria. regional integration and cooperation in For example, using date palms to fight desert research. Regional bodies can facilitate the encroachment has been successful in Israel. The transfer of technology, genetic materials and Nigerian Institute for Oil Palm Research should develop expertise. improved date palm seedlings that can be an export crop and also fight desert encroachment.

5.3 Agricultural Box 5.2 Research Management Systems priorities for agriculture

There are many agricultural management systems management systems that require research investment and it is beyond Improve crop and grazing land management the scope of this chapter to describe them all in systems to increase soil carbon storage. detail. The focus is on conservation agriculture and agriculture in drylands as examples of where research Restore cultivated peaty soil and degraded investment is needed. lands and improve cultivation techniques, particularly for rice, to reduce nitrous oxide (NO ) emissions. Conservation agriculture 2 Promote the composting of organic waste, Conservation agriculture is linked directly to climate controlled wastewater treatment, recycling resilience because its techniques improve soil quality, and minimization, bio-covers and bio-filters including moisture retention – a critical factor in to optimize methane oxidation. crop growth that will be a major issue in regions of Expand rainwater harvesting, water storage increasingly unreliable rainfall. and conservation techniques, water reuse One conservation agriculture technique is the use of and water desalination, and improve the efficiency of water use for agriculture and organic fertilizers. Due to the high cost of synthetic irrigation to reduce water stress. fertilizers, the Institute of Agricultural Research and Training developed an organic fertilizer for maize, Improve techniques for applying nitrogen cassava and melon, which was first released in 2007. fertilizers to reduce nitrous oxide emissions This simple innovation uses local materials and can (these contribute to climate change). be put together by farmers. Adding organic matter Develop new techniques that: control water improves soil fertility and structure, and yields of runoff and soil erosion control (for example up to 10–12 tonnes per hectare (t/ha) for cassava, planting trees); improve water harvesting and 0.3–0.65 t/ha for melon and 1.5–2 t/ha for maize have been recorded using this technology. CONTINUED CHAPTER 5: RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT FOR CLIMATE-RESILIENT AGRICULTURE 45

storage for irrigation; improve soil organic Box 5.3 Examples of crop matter content, structure and biodiversity. breeding for resilience in Assess how invasive alien species are, and Nigeria the resilience of ecosystems to mitigate biodiversity threats and minimize the loss of In 2004, the Cocoa Research Institute of Nigeria important and useful native plant species; these will be vital in breeding new climate- developed an early-maturing cocoa variety with resilient crops. yields of up to 1 t/ha juvenile yield, rising to about 2.5 t/ha mature yield, with reduced agricultural Introduce techniques for reduced feed inputs. This is very favourable compared with wastage and promote non-conventional other varieties that give average yields of 300 animal feeds, such as new fodder crops and fish feeds (e.g., maggots); these could replace kg/ha and mature in five years. Early-maturing feeds that become scarce due to climate varieties will be useful as patterns of rainfall and change. dry seasons vary with climate change. Climate-resilient technologies being developed at the National Root Crops Research Institute largely focus on breeding for drought-resistant 5.4 Breeding for cassava genotypes for Nigeria’s Sahelian northern states, and saline water-resistant genotypes that Future Climates are mainly for the southern states.

A significant area for research investment will be breeding The increase in precipitation intensity observed new varieties to cope with the changing climate. This in the southeast of Nigeria has exacerbated the includes new varieties of crop, livestock and fish. problem of soil erosion. High-branching cassava varieties developed by the National Horticultural Climate-resilient crop varieties Research Institute reduce the effects of erosion Crop research can be used to breed for specific traits and have been introduced to famers. A moisture- that increase climate resilience, including tolerance to tolerant cassava variety was also developed for heat, drought, salinity and submergence. This will be a environments of high rainfall. The Institute, in key strategy for adapting to climate change. Examples collaboration with IITA, also developed a drought- of ongoing work in Nigerian research institutes are tolerant cassava variety for the northern part of highlighted in Box 5.3. the country where rainfall has been declining. Source: ACARN publications and stakeholder engagement Research by international research institutes is also sessions held by the ACARN an important contributor. The International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT) has bred millet, sorghum and groundnut varieties for Climate-resilient livestock higher yield and resistance to major diseases, as well as varieties to drought. Early maturity, aflatoxin resistance, nutrient efficiency and water utilization are other important Livestock make up about one third of Nigeria’s attributes being researched. agricultural GDP. They provide food, income, transport, employment, farm energy, fuel and manure. They are Under irrigated dry-season crop production, which also a major source of government revenue. Livestock, could play an increasingly significant role in Nigeria’s especially ruminants, are the most efficient users of agricultural production, temperature becomes uncultivated land and can contribute substantially to o important: it can be too low (about 20 C or lower) crop production, for example through manure and as early in the season (December–January) or too high draught animals. (above 40oC) later in the season (April–May), affecting the productivity of tropical crops. ICRISAT has started The National Animal Production Research Institute breeding crop varieties that not only tolerate drought, (NAPRI) has the mandate for livestock research but are adapted to high temperatures. For example, in Nigeria. While many of the methods and millet varieties are being bred that tolerate excessive technologies it has researched were not developed temperatures (up to 45oC) and produce higher yields with climate resilience in mind, they are targeted at (more than 4.5 t/ha) at those temperatures. boosting production. This makes the sector more 46 NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK resilient in the event of losses resulting from climate change. For example, drought has often taken its 5.5 Post-harvest toll on livestock in Nigeria, particularly in the north. A higher production capacity will ensure animals Management can be replaced more quickly after extreme climate Roughly one third of food produced globally for events. human consumption – about 1.3 billion tonnes each One of NAPRI’s key goals is “genetic and reproductive year – is lost or wasted. Not all losses are avoidable, improvements of livestock species” and one of its key but many are. This problem is extremely important in achievements is the upgrading of indigenous cattle Africa. For example, in sub-Saharan Africa on average by crossbreeding them with exotic breeds to produce 13.5% of cereals by weight are lost between harvest animals that produce 70% more milk than indigenous and consumption; these have a value of about US$4 breeds. Researchers at NAPRI have evaluated the billion per year (Hodges et al., 2013). This is more than productivity of indigenous cattle, sheep and goat the total food aid received by the continent between breeds. The breeds and suitable management 1998 and 2008, equal to total cereal imports between procedures for extensive and intensive production 2000 and 2007, and enough to meet the requirements systems in Nigeria’s various ecological zones have of 48 million people (World Bank, 2011). Unpublished been identified and practical guidelines for farmers figures for Nigeria provided by the FMARD indicate documented. post-harvest losses of approximately20% for all foodstuffs.

Climate-resilient fisheries Climate change is likely to exacerbate post-harvest losses, not only in cereal value chains, but also in other For fisheries, the National Institute for Freshwater plant-based foods, livestock-based foods and fisheries. Fisheries Research (NIFFR) and the NIOMR have Higher temperatures increase the prevalence and mandates to breed hardy strains that can withstand toxicity of spoilage; aflatoxin in maize is an important adverse changes in the environment. Most example for Nigeria as it can cause fatalities. Greater tropical freshwater fish species thrive well in water climate variability and associated climate extremes temperatures between 200C and 270C. Lower or can cause hailstorms, floods and landslides that have higher temperatures will significantly retard metabolic severe acute effects on harvests and post-harvest activities in freshwater fish. Tilapia and catfish, for management. example, will not spawn when it gets too cold, while fingerlings will die if it gets too hot. There is a need to Reducing losses in food value chains represents a breed fish that have higher hatchability and survival major opportunity to simultaneously improve food rates. In this regard, some fish farmers use techniques security, increase household resilience to climate like adding ice blocks to water to bring down the change, and mitigate food-related greenhouse gas temperature and thereby reduce heat stress on emissions. Most losses in Nigeria occur at the post- fingerlings. harvest stage, during on-farm storage, village-level processing and local transportation. Box 5.4 Research priorities The Nigerian Stored Products Research Institute for crop, livestock and (NSPRI), which has the national mandate for the preservation of agricultural commodities, has fisheries breeding developed several technologies that help make post-harvest management more climate-resilient, Breed crops varieties that are drought- and many institutes that have post-harvest units have resistant, heat-resistant, insect- and pest- developed similar technologies. Box 5.5 highlights resistant, as well as early-maturing varieties. some successful examples. Breed varieties that grow with efficient use of resources e.g., crops that perform well Often the technical solutions to improved post-harvest under low soil fertility and low soil moisture management are fairly simple and well established, conditions. so do not need substantial further research. But Encourage the use of alternative energy where farmers do not produce surpluses and are sources (solar or charcoal) for fisheries disconnected from value chains, improving post- breeding. harvest management is an important challenge for policy and research (Hodges et al., 2013). More efficient CHAPTER 5: RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT FOR CLIMATE-RESILIENT AGRICULTURE 47

Box 5.5 Technologies for Box 5.6 Research improved post-harvest priorities for post-harvest management management

Smoking kilns Look for further innovations in efficient and locally appropriate technologies for post- Local kilns, which are used for post-harvest harvest management, for example simple activities such as for smoking fish to preserve dryers that mimic sun drying. them, are often inefficient and use a lot energy, Research economic incentives in value chains which means more wood, more CO emissions 2 for farmers to reduce post-harvest losses. and more forest being cut down. Olokor (2003) found that fish processors use 16.41 kg of fuel Develop statistical and modelling approaches wood per day, or 7.5 m3 of forest wood compared for better prediction of the epidemiology to 0.46 m3 estimated for developing countries of post-harvest spoilage under near-term climate variability and long-term climate by earlier studies. The NSPRI, the NIOMR and the change. NIFFR have developed more efficient smoking kilns that reduce the amount of firewood Improve and share information systems on used. Some eliminate the need for fuel wood post-harvest losses, including connections to altogether by using only sawdust, wood shavings the African Postharvest Losses Information or briquettes made from waste materials like rice System. husks.

Solar dryers Livestock and pasture systems The Kainji solar dryer, which uses only solar radiation, has been used widely around Kainji and Nigeria’s livestock sector plays an important role Jebba lakes for drying fish. It is cheap and can be in contributing to food security and economic easily constructed by local manufacturers, and growth (see Section 5.4). However, it is important turns out clean, quality products. It can be used to understand how climate change will influence to dry most agricultural products, particularly livestock production in order to develop response vegetables, fish and perishable items so that policy and adaptive management interventions. they keep for longer. The advantage of this Various climate models predict slightly different technology is that it produces higher quality futures for Nigeria (see Chapter 2) but there is a products compared with the local method of general agreement that there will be a decrease in sun drying on the bare ground, which leads to precipitation in the centre and the southwest of contamination by dust, sand, stones and flies. Nigeria, coupled with a predicted increase of 2–2.5°C Since open-sun drying is slower than solar dryers, in average daily maximum temperatures during the some spoilage begins in the products before they warmest month (Cervigni et al., 2013). This suggests get the chance to dry properly. drier climatic conditions will dominate in the future, perhaps enough to influence species composition, forage quality and plant community structure. If

atmospheric CO2 increases, the shift from grasses to post-harvest management can also contribute to woody plant dominance is also likely to follow. How sustainable food provision and climate resilience by pasture and other crop species that are important in saving valuable energy, water and financial resources. mixed crop–livestock systems will cope with these changes remains unknown. As well as research into livestock breeding, investments must be made to build 5.6 Landscapes and research capacity in Nigeria to provide answers to the Ecosystems following critical questions: How will climate change (especially changes in Research into climate resilience will also need to precipitation and temperature) influence the consider innovations at the scale of landscapes and vegetation of Nigeria at biome level? Will this ecosystems. These include livestock systems and affect the resilience of existing and future livestock forests. production systems? 48 NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK

How will changes in the state of natural resources associated with climate change Box 5.7 Research priorities influence the availability and quality of grazing for landscapes and resources, fuel wood and other ecosystem services that impact rural livelihoods? ecosystems What are the major drivers and consequences Develop an understanding of the incentives of land cover change (shifts in plant community for deforestation and how to incentivize structure and assemblages) and land use an increase in forests and trees within change (land transformation for agriculture productive landscapes instead. or development) in Nigeria, particularly on productive ecosystems prone to rapid change? Introduce innovative uses and adoption of trees in farming practices. How sensitive is southern (wetter) and northern (drier) Nigerian land cover (vegetation structure Understand the socio-cultural and economic and composition) to human drivers of change factors that foster or constrain agroforestry (e.g., land use change)? (e.g., mixing trees with forest systems). How will Nigeria’s ATA influence rates of land use Understand the social and environmental and land cover change, and what are the likely benefits of trees outside the forest. impacts on ecosystem processes, ecosystem Expand rural livelihood opportunities by services and the biodiversity that underpin developing non-timber forest products. livestock production? How will changes in Nigerian land cover and land use feed back to regional and global climate dynamics and to future climate lands), or a combination of both (Parrotta et al., 2012). projections? Success in increasing trees in farming landscapes will depend, among other political and social Managing forest resources aspects, on levels of forest and soil degradation, residual vegetation after disturbances, desired Forests are conspicuously decreasing in Nigeria and restoration outcomes and how to combine livelihood the country has one of the highest deforestation benefits with ambitious reforestation programmes rates in Africa (FAO, 2010). The consequence of (Chazdon, 2008). This level of knowledge requires increased biodiversity loss limits the functions a good monitoring system of land use change and of forest ecosystems and the ability of forests to vegetation dynamics at country level. provide ecosystem services. Climate change impacts (including extreme events) and increasing population pressure create a higher need for conservation and 5.7 Climate Data and restoring tree cover in forested ecosystems (Aerts and Honnay, 2011). The loss of tree cover has biophysical Knowledge Systems effects, which include changes in land surface properties, evapotranspiration and the climate Climate information and beyond the fate of CO2 (Bala et al., 2007). Also, the loss downscaled models and degradation of essential ecosystem functions (e.g., pollination) and services (e.g., flood mitigation, At present, climate research in Nigerian agricultural topsoil retention, non-timber forest products, water research institutes is not well established. They recycling) are threatening the majority of people only have small units for applied climate research living in tropical countries (Bruijnzeel, 2004; Bradshaw that oversee the collection of daily weather data. et al., 2009) and require urgent action. However, assessments of climate impacts on agriculture, based on top-down analysis from global Climate-resilient agricultural practices that raise climate models, have recently been undertaken for farmers’ incomes may benefit livelihoods in the Nigeria and published by the World Bank (Cervigni short term, but could also incentivize further et al., 2013) and by the Consultative Group on forest clearance to create more agricultural land, International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) (Hassan decreasing carbon storage and sequestration. Two et al., 2013). There is now a need to mainstream ways to conserve trees in the landscape are land climatic and associated environmental factors into sharing (mixing trees with cropping systems) and the research across the Nigerian agricultural research land sparing (delineating forested lands to farming system. CHAPTER 5: RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT FOR CLIMATE-RESILIENT AGRICULTURE 49

The thrust of research should go beyond collecting Scenario planning may bring up many assumptions weather data to in-depth climate research, including about agriculture and its potential contribution to joining global efforts to improve the downscaling the economy and to livelihoods. However, these of climatic models and projections of impacts scenarios should also look critically at agriculture as a on agriculture. Relevant research needs to be major contributor to global climate change through underpinned by a good network of modern weather global emissions. stations in all the research stations (discussed in Section 3.6, Chapter 3). This should be coordinated Engaging with non-scientists at a central climate databank that works closely with the NIMET. The NIMET must also raise the country’s Even if greenhouse gas emissions are limited in the capacity to manage and use weather information near future, climate change will continue to develop and climate data effectively, while ensuring free and over the next century. It is not a simple switch from unrestricted access to all interested stakeholders, in one state to another, but a condition of ongoing accordance with the WMO Resolution 40 (Cg-XII) on change. Thus one-time technological fixes will be the exchange of meteorological and related data and inadequate. products. Investment is required in long-term, iterative Climate scenarios research and knowledge systems that develop the adaptive capacity of the agriculture sector. The Nigeria would benefit from embarking on a scenario best knowledge systems will provide for learning planning process for agriculture. Given the huge among multiple partners, including consumers, uncertainties about climatic futures, it is helpful farmers, the private sector and scientists. A modern, to understand the range of possible futures, and inclusive approach should apply the following to explore how climate change trends and drivers principles. interact with other trajectories, such as population growth, economic growth and emerging markets. Work closely with farmers and integrate The interaction of socio-economic and climatic local knowledge: Hunger and climate change have global causes, but they are experienced by changes is particularly relevant since Nigeria people in highly specific cultures and habitats. is a large economy undergoing swift changes Local knowledge, values and actions are central that are associated with large uncertainties, with to improved nutrition in the future. The limited consequences for climate resilience. At the same coverage and capacity of extension services time, perceptions of a predominant business as and other sources of knowledge in many places usual can be strong in Nigeria. Therefore the use of make local knowledge even more crucial. scenarios by policymakers and wider stakeholder groups may be a very valuable and important way to Engage society to assess synergies open up new policy pathways. and trade-offs for climate-resilient agriculture: Near-term food security, longer- One approach to scenarios is already working well in term adaptation and co-benefits to mitigation West Africa. The CGIAR programme Climate Change, may sometimes be achieved in synergy, but Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) has teamed up there may also be conflicts and trade-offs with major stakeholders from the West Africa sub- among the three goals. Research can make an region to develop, through participatory consultative important contribution to policy decisions by approach, scenarios up to 2050 for the sub-region providing empirical analyses of these trade- (CCAFS, 2013). offs at different scales of time, space and governance. CCAFS is working with ECOWAS to use these Invest in knowledge systems and capacity scenarios to examine and guide ECOWAS-facilitated at all levels: Investing in institutions to investments in climate-resilient agriculture. In Nigeria, promote the management and sharing of these scenarios could be used to guide national knowledge among diverse stakeholders agricultural adaptation and mitigation policies. They can speed up learning and uptake, while can also be used to test whether policies are able cutting costs. Interventions should also to deal with future climatic and socio-economic ensure equitable access to knowledge and changes, help think about more strategic and flexible technologies, which includes education for policies, and guide investments in agriculture, food women, who ensure household food security, security and the environment. and youth, who will be responsible in the future. 50 NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK

increasingly important for planning and action, Box 5.8 Research priorities working in tandem with local observations and for climate data and judgements. knowledge systems Hunger and climate change are highly complex problems where there is no clear agreement on the Establish fully equipped and automated agro- solutions, or even the causes of the problem. Trade- meteorological stations at all the agricultural offs among different goals for agriculture may be research institutes in Nigeria. These should very different for different stakeholders. Historically, be linked to a central institute for archiving, one-way knowledge systems, in which experts processing and dissemination. develop technologies and then disseminate them to Liaise with the NIMET and the Federal beneficiaries, have often failed. Farmer-led research Ministry of Aviation to explore opportunities to find ways to reduce exposure to climate risks for jointly investing in expanding the often provides a better alternative. country’s network of meteorological stations. Invest in Nigerian agro-climatic research, in Putting farmers at the centre terms of hardware (weather stations, data management systems, crop and agricultural of research impact modelling capacity, downscaling Nigerian farmers already respond to climate risks techniques, etc.) and software (skills base, in various ways, but their adaptation responses are access and affordability of climate data, links limited. For example, farmer adoption of drought- between stakeholders including farmers). tolerant maize in the northeast Guinea and Sudan Create at least four centres of excellence Savannah zones is limited by affordability and for agro-climatic research, focusing on access to the technology, complementary inputs, the Coastal, Forest, Guinea Savanna, Sahel extension services and climate information (Tambo Savanna, and Sahel AEZs. and Abdoulaye, 2012). In the southeast region, Ensure the sensible use of climate factors such as poor market access, poor extension information; do not base interventions to services and limited information on climate change increase climate resilience on a handful of affect the capacity of farmers to adapt to changes in downscaled climate projections. agricultural production, including climate variability Establish a Nigerian process on climate (see: Onyeneke and Madukwe, 2010; Ozor et al, scenarios, linking the agriculture sector with 2010). other sectors, and drawing on the wider ECOWAS approach. Understanding different farming systems and how Use scenarios to make important decisions farmers experience these conditions, their access on choices and trade-offs in agricultural to resources and their actions to cope with climate development. hazards is a necessary first step. The ‘Fadama’ projects,1 under the FMARD, are addressing many of these limitations and can offer various lessons to draw from. But they do not explicitly adopt a climate-resilient approach to increase the synergies 5.8 Building between mitigation, adaptation, improved food Institutions and security and development. Also, to put farmers at the centre of research means maintaining Capacity continuous contact with them, to learn about the challenges they face and the successes and failures The challenges faced by Nigerian farmers today are they encounter in their own experiments. Farmers’ perhaps more complex than ever before. Demand- experimentation offers researchers the opportunity and supply-side pressures are converging in a way to learn and to collaborate on such ideas with that will require innovative systems that are as farmers. responsive and inclusive as possible. Confronting climate change will depend on local capacities for The limited mobility of public extension services immediate action, but will also surpass the limits of means there is a need for additional ways to local knowledge. Scientific tools, such as techniques for forecasting, scenarios and modelling, will be 1 ‘Fadama’ is a Hausa word for irrigable land. CHAPTER 5: RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT FOR CLIMATE-RESILIENT AGRICULTURE 51 contact farmers. This can be through encouraging ARCN. They have the mandate for farming systems and empowering farmers’ organizations to directly research and the responsibility for researching inform research organizations about the constraints genetic improvement, production increases and and opportunities in production. For example, product development in a wide range of agricultural the Fadama projects use a community-driven commodities. They have additional mandates approach in which farmers have formed 4,814 covering research in areas such as soil and water Fadama Community Associations, comprising 58,354 management and the long-term effects of human- Fadama user/economic interest groups (World Bank, made lakes on ecology and the environment. There 2012) with most states federating their community are also training mandates for the Federal Colleges of associations up to the state level (World Bank, 2011). Agriculture under the guidance of the ARCN.

The existing farmers’ organizations (including those These mandates span all the AEZs of the country outside the Fadama programme) provide a basis and are critical for climate- resilient agriculture. for greater research collaboration. The FMARD can For example, to be able to mitigate and adapt to facilitate this by introducing a broad-based research the impacts of climate change, there is a need to programme with farmers. This should be accessible diversify the production base and properly integrate to all research organizations in Nigeria on a peer- all aspects of production. The wide scope of the review basis, whereby it is mandatory for farmers and mandates makes them very relevant in this regard. researchers to jointly define the research problem. Research and dissemination can help farmers to This will ensure that farmers are really at the centre introduce a wider range of commodities, farming of research. Already, performance-based contracts systems and approaches to natural resources with research organizations are planned in the management, going beyond primary production and Fadama projects (World Bank, 2011) and experiences into processing and adding value to their produce. can feed into researcher–farmer partnerships that are The existing structures within research institutes supported and financed by the FMARD. mean they are well placed to support climate- Finally, while Nigerian agriculture is predominantly resilient agriculture in these different zones. Working small-scale, large-scale farmers also have the on a common mandate can also build synergies potential to increase agricultural production, due among the various institutes involved in the zones as to the spatial scale of their enterprises and because well as promoting integrated agriculture. they tend to have more financial resources to invest Particular approaches to support include crop in research and new technologies. Thus, the FMARD rotation and improved farming systems, which can needs to connect researchers with large-scale reduce greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural producers as well. production. Furthermore, farmers should adopt Agricultural research systems with reduced reliance on external inputs, such as rotations that include legume crops. organizations Sustainable practices such as organic agriculture Agricultural research organizations have a crucial strongly reduce reliance on external inputs, for role to play in promoting climate-resilient agriculture example by recycling waste as a source of nutrients, in Nigeria. In the last few years the Agricultural using nitrogen-fixing plants and avoiding synthetic Research Council of Nigeria (ARCN) has worked pesticides. hard to meet the needs of the NARS and relevant However, to effectively combat the impacts of universities in climate change research and climate- climate change, there is need for proper funding for resilient technologies. It has conducted sensitization relevant research initiatives. Consequently, the ARCN training for research scientists on the subject and and the NARS will have to look beyond the capital carried out surveys to assess capacity and available budget, which has been limited and inadequate technologies. This section features part of the survey in the past. There are several funds that could be report conducted by ARCN (2011) entitled Available tapped for climate change mitigation and adaptation Climate Friendly Agricultural Technologies and Practices projects. First, however, the ARCN needs to develop a among Nigerian Farmers. comprehensive strategic plan for its climate change The NARS is already well prepared to support the projects. This would provide a basis on which to implementation of climate- resilient agriculture in engage stakeholders and funders in meaningful talks Nigeria. There are 15 research institutes under the to support proposed projects (ARCN, 2011). 52 NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK

Proceeding of the National Academy of Sciences of the Box 5.9 Research priorities United States of America (PNAS) 104: 6550–6555. for institutions and to build Bradshaw, C.J., Sodhi, N.S. and Brook, B.W. 2009. Tropical capacity turmoil: a biodiversity tragedy in progress. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 7: 79–87. Improve the understanding of different farming systems in their social, agro- Bruijnzeel, L.A. 2004. Hydrological functions of tropical ecological, governance and economic forests: not seeing the soil for the trees? Agriculture contexts, including how farmers experience Ecosystems & Environment 104: 185–228. these conditions, their access to resources and their actions to secure their production CCAFS. 2013. ‘Future scenarios. Climate change, against climatic hazards. agriculture and food security programme of the Put farmers at the centre of research on Consultative Group on International Agricultural climate resilience in agriculture, with Research’. Copenhagen, Denmark: CGIAR Research farmers experimenting with climate-resilient Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food technologies and practices. Security. Available at: http://ccafs.cgiar.org/scenarios Use existing farmers’ organizations, within Cervigni, R., Rogers, J.A. and Henrion, M. (eds). 2013. and beyond the Fadama programme, as the Nigeria: Toward Climate-Resilient Development in Nigeria. institutional mechanism for putting farmers at the centre of research on climate resilience. Washington, DC, USA: World Bank. Seek avenues to connect researchers with Chazdon, R.L. 2008. Beyond deforestation: restoring large-scale producers. forests and ecosystem services on degraded lands. Strengthen extension agents, particularly Science 320: 1458–1460. agricultural development programmes, FAO. 2010. Global Forest Resources Assessment 2010. through materials and capacity to pass climate- resilient technologies to farmers and Rome, Italy: Food and Agriculture Organization of the give adequate feedback to researchers. United Nations. Improve the funding model for research on Hassan, S.M., Ikuenobe, C.E., Jalloh, A., Nelson, G.C. climate resilience in Nigerian agriculture and Thomas, T.S. 2013. ‘Nigeria’. In: Jalloh, A., Nelson, to provide a secure, competitive financial G.C., Thomas, T.S., Zougmoré, R. and Roy-Macauley, resource base for top-quality research. H. (eds). West African Agriculture and Climate Change: A Comprehensive Analysis. Washington DC, USA: International Food Policy Research Institute.

5.9 References Hodges, R., Bennett, C., Bernard, M. and Rembold, F. 2013. Tackling post-harvest cereal losses in Aerts, R. and Honnay, O. 2011. Forest restoration, sub-Saharan Africa. International Journal for Rural biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Biomed Development 47: 16–18. Central Ecology 11: 10. Olokor, J.O. 2003. Cost of fuelwood for fish smoking ARCN. 2011. Available Climate Friendly Agricultural Technologies and Practices Among Nigerian Farmers. around Kanji Lake and economic prospects of the kanji Unpublished report. Abuja, Nigeria: Agricultural solar tent fish dryer.Proceedings of Fisheries Society of Research Council of Nigeria. Nigeria (FISON) 105–109.

Apata T.G, Ogunyinka A.I., Sanusi, R.A. and Onyeneke, R.U. and Madukwe, D.K. 2010. Adaptation Ogunwande S. 2010. ‘Effects of global climate measures by crop farmers in the southeast rainforest change on Nigerian agriculture: An empirical zone of Nigeria to climate change. Science World analysis’. The 84th Annual Conference of the Journal 5(1): 32–34. Agricultural Economics Society, Edinburgh, 29–31 Ozor, N., Madukwe, M.C., Enete, A.A., Amaechina, E.C., March 2010. Onokala, P., Eboh, E.C., Ujah, O. and Garforth, C.J. 2010. Bala, G., Caldeira, K., Wickett, M., Phillips, T.J., Lobell, Barriers to climate change adaptation among farming D.B., Delire, C. and Mirin, A. 2007. Combined climate households of southern Nigeria. Journal of Agricultural and carbon-cycle effects of large-scale deforestation. Extension 14(1): 114–124. CHAPTER 5: RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT FOR CLIMATE-RESILIENT AGRICULTURE 53

Parrotta, J.A., Wildburger, C. and Mansourian, S. 2012. E. and Smith, D.R. 2013. Addressing uncertainty in Understanding Relationships between Biodiversity, adaptation planning for agriculture. Proceedings of the Carbon, Forests and People: The Key to Achieving REDD+ National Academy of Sciences 110: 8357–8362. Objectives. Vienna, Austria: International Union of Forest Research Organizations. World Bank. 2011. ‘Implementation status & results, Nigeria Third National Fadama Development Tambo, J.A. and Abdoulaye, T. 2012. Climate change Project (FADAMA III) (P096572)’. Report No: ISR2450. and agricultural technology adoption: the case of Washington, DC, USA: World Bank. drought tolerant maize in rural Nigeria. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 17: 277–292. World Bank. 2012. ‘Implementation Status & Results Nigeria Third National Fadama Development Vermeulen, S.J., Challinor, A.J., Thornton, P.K., Campbell, Project (FADAMA III) (P096572)’. Report No: ISR6190. B.M., Eriyagama, N., Vervoort, J., Kinyangi, J., Jarvis, A., Washington, DC, USA: World Bank. Läderach, P., Ramirez-Villegas, J., Nicklin, K., Hawkins,

6 Improving Agricultural Extension Services 56 NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK

Nigeria food secure or alleviating poverty in rural areas. 6.1 Introduction The focus has been on increasing crop production to the detriment of livestock, fisheries and post-harvest Climate change, coupled with population growth handling and processing, and with insufficient efforts and energy and natural resource depletion, will to strengthen the capacity of small-scale farmers and increasingly challenge our ability to feed ourselves. other actors along the value chain to ensure sustained Recognizing problems, forming responses and making agricultural development (Arokoyo, 2005). Today, proactive preparations are the first steps to meeting the majority of farmers in Nigeria are inadequately this challenge, and these will be iterative as our serviced: there is, at best, one extension agent for knowledge expands and new interactions and effects every 2000 farming families and, at worst, one to every become clear. Agricultural extension agents and 22,000, depending on the state (see Table 6.1). advisory services will need to serve both as the critical link between farmers and sources of information and The void created by the lack of national extension tools, and as the facilitators of widespread behavioural services is filled by NGOs, notably the British–American adaptation. Tobacco, the Evangelical Church of West Africa Rural Development Project (in the north), the Shell Climate change is expected to have the greatest and the Mobil outreach programmes (in the Niger impact on poor smallholder farmers who lack Delta), the Leventis Foundation, the Sasakawa Global the resources and knowledge base to respond 2000 and the United States Agency for International adequately or take advantage of new environmental Development (USAID) Markets programme. It is circumstances. In a large country like Nigeria with expected that, with appropriate capacity building, varied agro-climatic conditions, numerous indigenous private agricultural extension and advisory services and evolving production systems and socio-cultural may be able to effectively compliment the public communities, these challenges are even greater. extension service and fill the gaps. Meshing indigenous with modern systems capitalizes on the strength of existing farming methods. The Research-Extension-Farmer-Inputs Linkage System (REFILS) is a research and extension management tool, However, as the need for knowledge transfer on how which provides a platform to bring together all the to adopt climate- resilient farming practices grows, stakeholders (researchers, extension workers, farmers, decades of underinvestment have left government extension services throughout Africa in a sorry private sector and government actors) in technology state. The lack of resources means that staff are development, adaptation, dissemination, adoption often unmotivated and lack adequate knowledge. and utilization. The development and operation of Furthermore, they tend to operate in a top-down REFILS reached its peak during the World Bank-assisted fashion, with decision-making and prioritization National Agricultural Research Project (NARP), which coming from those in power. This is the opposite of supported Nigeria’s NARS from 1995–2000. Similar the required objective of farmer engagement and to the experience of the agricultural development empowerment. Ideally, extension programmes need programmes, the termination of NARP support to be more decentralized, pluralistic, highly efficient marked the downward turn of REFILS and its virtual and demand-driven; in summary, more responsive to collapse. Consequently, REFILS has remained weak, the actual needs of farmers. Extension arrangements uncoordinated, poorly funded and ineffective. should culminate in, or at least include, a community- The major challenges facing the national agricultural based climate change adaptation support programme. extension service in Nigeria are summarized below. There is also a need to integrate traditional knowledge gathered from farmers themselves. An absence of an agricultural extension policy that clearly defines the roles and responsibilities of all stakeholders in the sector and provides for 6.2 Extension Services innovative and sustainable funding mechanisms in Nigeria to ensure stability and sustainability of the system. Inadequate and poor quality staff; they have Agricultural extension is considered the prime vehicle limited opportunities for capacity development for bringing technological innovations to farmers for to enhance job performance and to effectively sustainable development and improved quality of life. address current challenges. But its efficiency and effectiveness are a major concern Poor infrastructure and inadequate working tools, because it has not had the desired impact of making including poor mobility for field extension staff CHAPTER 6: IMPROVING AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION SERVICES 57

at the critical extension agent–farmer interface, Table 6.1 Extension Staffing in and a lack of up-to-date, site-specific weather Nigeria information and models. A monopolistic and dominant public extension STATE NUMBER OF NUMBER FF TO system, characterized by top-down, supply-driven EXTENSION OF FARM EACH EA AGENTS (EA) FAMILIES (FF) extension approaches with little use of information and communication technology. Abia 78 410,670 5265 Adamawa 250 450,000 1800 The weak and uncoordinated REFILS programme and activities. Akwa-Ibom 193 685,095 3550 Anambra 35 338,721 9678 Poor targeting of women and youth, who are disproportionately affected by climate change Bauchi 321 648,510 2020 because of cultural and socio-economic factors. Bayelsa 16 95,455 5966 Benue 98 413,159 4216 Borno 235 536,322 2282 6.3 The Basis of Better Cross-River 124 481,506 3883 Advice Delta 92 179,256 1948 Farmers in Nigeria face many economic, political and Ebonyi 170 435,328 2561 environmental uncertainties. To build their resilience Edo 27 200,000 7407 in the face of climate change, they need reliable data Ekiti 32 200,000 6250 and advice to help them make informed decisions on Enugu 49 246,542 5031 the most appropriate agricultural practices. This means FCT 70 165,000 2357 building the capacity of national agricultural extension Gombe 155 309,366 1996 service staff, so they can understand the impacts of climate change on local agriculture and provide better Imo 120 303,333 2528 advice to farmers. Three kinds of technical support are Jigawa 205 467,000 2278 required: Kaduna 178 606,007 3405 updated knowledge and awareness among Kano 487 1,300,000 2669 extension staff of climate change and climate Katsina 11 242,000 22,000 variability, and their impact on agriculture Kebbi 32 525,000 16,406 improved skills among extension subject Kogi 97 222,894 2298 specialists in promoting climate change Kwara 120 300,000 2500 adaptation strategies in agriculture Lagos 100 360,000 3600 wider uptake and application of the currently Nasarawa 127 180,433 1421 limited climate change adaptation training Niger 383 550,000 1436 programme, through backstopping and support to extension subject specialists in training frontline Ogun 93 360,000 3871 staff. Ondo 112 180,000 1607 It is not only extension staff who will benefit from Osun 14 254,984 18,213 a coordinated capacity building programme. Other Oyo 77 415,030 5390 beneficiaries include researchers, farmers, the private Plateau 74 525,082 7096 sector, farmers’ associations and other CSOs and CBOs Rivers 51 479,170 9395 involved in technology development, adaptation, Sokoto 119 673,944 5663 dissemination, adoption and use. Therefore, Taraba 110 288,000 2618 research and advisory personnel must be trained so they themselves are adaptive in their structures, Yobe 130 407,834 3137 governance, funding and partnerships. Zamfara 180 350,000 1944 As discussed in Chapter 5, placing farmers at the Source: Arokoyo (2007); FDAE (2013) centre of agricultural research is the key to successfully developing climate- resilient agriculture in Nigeria. REFILS is a suitable vehicle for this as it links farmers to the NARS at multiple levels, and not just as recipients 58 NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK of knowledge but also as drivers of research. Capacity building and proper funding for REFILS will enable it to Box 6.1 Actions for capacity implement critical activities relevant to climate change building adaptation and mitigation. These include: diagnostic and thematic surveys to identify climate change Extension services: challenges and design appropriate research to address An audit of extension services, followed by them; designing researcher- and farmer-managed on- a training needs analysis to determine the farm adaptive research; and establishing training plots knowledge gaps with specific reference to to disseminate the technologies and teach farmers climate change. how to use them. Mainstreaming adaptation to climate into Besides technical training, farmers should be given regular agricultural extension and advisory appropriate training to organize and manage their services, including farm broadcasts (radio and television programmes). associations and cooperatives more effectively, using appropriate strategies such as the farmer field school Research and higher education institutions: (FFS) approach. All states should provide adequate Strengthen and properly fund REFILS. funding for FFSs and scale up the strategy. To ensure Organize training by commodities and better quality control of the services provided to farmers/ characterize agricultural technologies so their producers and their associations, all private extension suitability and resilience can be assessed providers should register and be certified by the before putting a foot in the field. These appropriate government agency or professional initiatives will not only save Nigeria resources, body. Re-certification of agricultural extension service they will also cut the time lag between needs providers should be carried out every three years. assessment, technology development and its adoption by farmers. In addition to capacity building, farmers need access Reassess the curricula of universities and to long-term climate data and short-term weather other higher education institutions to make forecasting information to help them make decisions climate change a compulsory subject, like (for example, whether or not to plant seeds or apply English, for all students. fertilizer on a given day). For this, they need a six- to Start an open electronic forum to sensitize, eight-hour weather forecast. A short-range weather mobilize and discuss the best global practices tool-kit has been successfully demonstrated in in climate- resilient agriculture. Nigeria’s Bauchi state, described in see Box 6.2, while Revive the FFS approach and integrate additional lessons on participatory weather forecasting climate- resilient technologies into FFS in Ghana are presented in Box 6.3. The need for better activities. climate data is covered in Chapter 3. Farmers, farmers’ associations and community organizations: 6.4 Communicating Promote farmer field schools. Sensitize communities and mobilize Extension Messages community groups through media Different media are needed for different campaigns on climate- resilient agriculture. stakeholders, and so a mix of both traditional (printed, word of mouth, local radio) and modern (mobile phone and internet) methods should Toll-free helpline be used to communicate extension messages. This service is used extensively in India and could be From previous pilot schemes in Nigeria, it appears introduced in Nigeria. The Nigerian extension service that private telecom operators are willing to currently operates a mobile phone-based agricultural offer discounted tariffs to support agricultural question and answer service with nine research projects. There is a need to re-examine commercial institutes across the country. The primary objective is information and communication technology in to provide useful information on demand to farmers Nigeria with a view to forming public–private and other stakeholders. In 2010, the extension service partnerships in agricultural extension. Some ideas began negotiations with Nokia to produce customized for new communication tools are given below. phones with agricultural extension message features CHAPTER 6: IMPROVING AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION SERVICES 59

Box 6.2 Planting date these decisions to farming communities, resulting and maize-management in increases in maize yield in participating communities. Staff from the Bauchi programme forecasting regularly appeared on local radio, where they answered farmers’ questions and explained the Farmers in Bauchi, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Lagos, benefits of forecasting. Oyo and Sokoto states experience a high Source: Jagtap (2008) incidence of crop failure when dry spells follow the planting season. This problem led to the initiation of a pilot project on reliable forecasting built in. The service should be upgraded into a for safe planting windows, which was tested sustainable web- and mobile phone-based farming with farming communities, extension services helpline to serve as an advisory platform for value- and the Department of Crop Production in state chain partners with an automated response and real- and federal universities. In Kaduna and Oyo, person option. The system should be programmed in maize and cowpea farmers perceived that the all major languages in the country, including English, performance of their crops was better when they Pidgin, Hausa, Igbo and Yoruba, and the service should planted according to the forecast than when they be free of charge, with a maximum 24-hour response used traditional methods. The millet and cowpea time. farmers in Jigawa, Kano and Sokoto who did not realize the value of the forecast replanted millet three or four times. Cowpea farmers in Bauchi Multipurpose community lost crops planted very early and early before the telecentres window. These are shared information and communication In Bauchi state, a situational analysis showed that, facilities for people in rural and isolated areas. even with favourable rainfall, farmers were not The services they offer usually cover telephone, taking advantage of it when selecting the best fax, typing, photocopying and printing, as well as time to plant their maize. A project by Global training in the use of computers, email and electronic Climate Technology Development (GCTD), a networking. Telecentres are operating on a pilot Florida-based initiative, used seasonal and within- basis in several East and southern African countries season rainfall prediction to help farmers increase at present. Under the ATA, such centres should be their yields by selecting the best time to plant repackaged to offer youth employment and much- their maize, along with when and how much needed communication support to staple crops fertilizer to apply. processing zones, the NARS, colleges of agriculture, adopted or model villages and major agricultural The project trained management and field production areas. staff from the local agricultural development programme as well as extension agents in Climate change electronic preparing a rainfall forecast for each year and advising farmers on the best management forum practices for the production of maize. Once An E-forum for climate change would be useful to the seasonal rainfall forecast was provided solicit inputs and suggestions from within the country (around February), farmers, extension agents and and globally. It would bring together practitioners, researchers participated in a joint assessment of extension and advisory services, academics, the best management practices for maize using a media and policymakers to share information, best virtual simulation tool developed by GCTD using practices and experience on issues related to climate historical field data. The tool has been widely change. The objective of such a forum is to explore, tested and allows stakeholders to assess the discuss and pool information on climate change benefits and risks of a range of maize production issues affecting sub-regions and various subsectors decisions, including variety, sowing density, within Nigeria and to develop site- and issue-specific fertilizer amount and timing, and sowing date. innovations. The design of such a forum needs to Once agreed upon, extension services promote promote strategic discussion on how vulnerable populations can cope with and adapt to climate CONTINUED change, and the role of local institutions in enhancing 60 NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK their capacity to adapt. The E-forum will also need to provide a repository of knowledge, and a platform Box 6.3 Participatory for exchange of information on news, events, weather forecasting: publications, workshops and conferences. Lessons from Ghana Farmer-to-farmer extension Farmers in Ghana’s Upper West Region routinely In the absence of effective government extension fall victim to unreliable rainfall. In response, they services, there is a need to strengthen and empower practice low-input conservative agriculture to deal communities to fill the gap in climate-resilient with weather risks, but this means they miss out in agricultural knowledge transfer, making it more relevant favourable weather situations. Farmers traditionally and demand-driven. A farmer-based programme to use local rainfall forecast methods, but these are support the scaling up of climate- resilient agriculture increasingly failing. would complement better government service. Giving Convinced that seasonal rainfall forecasting for West farmers more responsibility will make agricultural Africa has improved to the point that forecasts may extension programmes more sensitive to local be of value to farmers, Mr Emmanuel Eledi, the Wa conditions, as well as more accountable, effective and District Director, and his extension team embarked sustainable. The proposal calls for an approach that on a five-year project that ended in 2008. They is based on farmer-to-farmer learning and exchange worked with GCTD to train extension staff in the use using the lead farmer approach, in which successful, of seasonal rainfall predictions as a basis for advising innovative farmers who are trusted by other community smallholder groundnut farmers on crop care. members are given incentives to act as role models or hubs of research, exposure and learning. Lead farmers also serve as platforms for aggregation of services, technology, inputs and products, thus enabling the adoption and maintenance of climate- resilient practices on smallholder farms. The hope is that, by learning from their peers and by taking a hand in the collection and distribution of agricultural information, smallholder farmers will become the centre of climate- resilient agriculture. Farmers in Nigeria’s Upper West Region do not usually plant groundnut after June; however, when provided with advice and Proactive agricultural weather forecasting, they were able to plant a June crop extension and rural advisory Using historical long-term daily weather data and services El Niño southern oscillation predictions, the team predicted the incidence of monthly rainfall, rainy More than 70% of Nigerians live in rural areas, and their days and drought. Portable rain gauges were main source of information comes from agricultural installed and monitored daily to check the forecast extension services. Their information requirements accuracy. Every village-based extension agent was include technical knowledge and involve facilitation, provided with a hand-held daily rain forecaster brokering and coaching on improved market access, and asked to use it to advise farmers on whether dealing with changing patterns of risk and protecting they should apply fertilizer, spray their crops or the environment. However, current extension systems irrigate. Working in joint sessions with lead farmers, are generally not very systematic and reflect the a crop calendar was drawn up. This was distributed diverse priorities and responsibilities of the wide range to all extension agents and communities and of public, private and civil society organizations that was well received. The farmers normally never currently offer advice and information. In fact, some plant groundnut after June, but those who did so of these providers would not even classify themselves harvested a bumper crop. as extension but rather as community developers, innovation brokers and natural resource planners. Since extension staff were involved in the However, they are all linked by a primary focus on development, thinking and analysis of the cause providing advice. Better links and coordination among and effects of rainfall variability, their confidence and them and with the government extension service would be of benefit. CONTINUED CHAPTER 6: IMPROVING AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION SERVICES 61

and opportunities that affect uptake of these risk- skills in computer analysis and weather forecasting reduction technologies, along with implications for was enhanced. The farmers were encouraged to policy incentives. learn from their own activities, try new things, review available solutions and adapt them. In doing so, they 2. Organize zonal climate extension and farmer mentor workshops that bring together extension agents gained both theoretical and practical knowledge on and emerging young farmers in Nigeria, with the the development of annual crop calendars. aim of facilitating knowledge transmission between The experience demonstrated that weather generations and sharing strategies to manage forecasting was useful to farmers in the hunger agricultural risks and ensure climate resilience. hotspots of the Upper West Region, which has a 3. Establish a competitively funded climate information high risk of drought and flood. The approach has and technology support group to develop a now been extended to the entire northern region. weather and climate decision toolkit for farmers. This case study clearly shows that participatory Information technology groups will be responsible approaches with farmers can make considerable for conducting hands-on workshops with producers gains in delivering useful climate and weather to build knowledge and develop skills to reduce forecasts and information to benefit farming climate-related risks. These groups should also decisions, particularly in regions subject to high develop presentations and short courses for levels of climate variability. Similar successful farm farmers and extension agents on the use of climate management decision-making undertaken through information for managing various commodities and appropriate targeting of forecast information is commodity-specific pests and diseases. This would already providing substantial benefits in other provide extension professionals with tools and ideas countries and regions, especially in Argentina, for engaging farmers in climate-related discussions. Australia, Brazil, India, southern Africa and parts 4. Organize roving seminars for schoolteachers to of the USA. The challenge remains in linking the build their capacity in delivering educational science of weather and climate forecasting to the programmes to increase youth literacy on weather wide range of farming industries and regions not yet and climate issues, including climate change addressed. impact and adaptation in the agriculture sector. The Source: Jagtap (2008) Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment programme1 is an internationals, hands- on, primary and secondary school-based science and education programme. Nigeria participates through the Federal Ministry of Education, and more than 80 6.5 Forums for schools are currently involved. Sharing Information 5. Organize regional workshops on the topic of coping with and adapting to climate variability in on Climate-Resilient agriculture. The focus audience for this workshop Agriculture would be extension agents, extension advisors, crop consultants and researchers from universities and The following are suggestions for creating platforms to agricultural research institutes. share information on climate-resilient agriculture. Another objective is to set up a national portal for climate 1. Regularly organize a national agricultural risk data, exploring capability and tools for calculating management event to engage producers, a variety of indices such as drought intensity, soil extension agents, researchers and policymakers in moisture availability, growing temperatures, etc. This evaluating and learning how adaptation, emerging portal could also provide forecasts for a variety of time technologies and management alternatives can scales. It is important to note, however, that all capacity- reduce climate-related risks and increase resource- building activities, such as training for stakeholders and use efficiency. Producers, each representing one of the adaptation strategies, could discuss the a staff audit and training needs assessment, as well as benefits and limitations of the featured technologies. implementation of REFILS activities and FFSs, require The purpose of this event would be to share funds to support agricultural development programmes, and compare experiences from different sectors research institutes and the national network of and to identify the most promising agricultural agricultural weather stations. management practices for adapting to climate change. Participants would also discuss barriers 1 See: www.globe.gov 62 NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK

6.6 Summary of Priorities, Recommendations and Actions

The success of climate- resilient agriculture in Nigeria will be determined by the ability of extension services to deliver site-specific climate-responsive technologies to farmers. Building their capacity to assess what farmers need and to offer timely, tailored solutions is pivotal. Problem recognition, response formulation and proactive preparation are the first steps, and will be iterative as our knowledge expands and new interactions and effects manifest themselves. Table 6.2 summarizes the priority actions.

Table 6.2 Priority recommendations

SHORT- AND MEDIUM-TERM PRIORITIES LEAD AGENCY/AGENCIES EXPECTED OUTCOMES Train researchers and extension personnel on The ARCN and the Identification of priority crop–climate decision tools to assess vulnerability FMARD action plans, technologies and adaptation options for all sectors of Nigerian to focus on, and budget agriculture allocation

Assess whether Nigeria has on-the-shelf technologies The ARCN and the Allocate technology for response formulation to reduce vulnerability and FMARD research and deliver on adaptation options development tasks to institutions

Proactively develop extension messages tailored to The ARCN and Ability to tailor location- seasonal weather forecasts the FMARD, with specific solutions to consultants buffer risks of climate variability

Incorporate information and communications The FMARD, private Demand-driven solutions technology into the delivery of knowledge-driven sector, telecom for stakeholders solutions service providers, with consultants

Build capacity at all levels, including curriculum The FMARD, farmers’ Long-term, iterative development across the NARS, farmers’ organizations organizations, Nigerian research and extension and policymakers extension service, linkages that sustain the the ARCN, the NARS, adaptive capacity of the universities agriculture sector

6.7 References

Arokoyo, T. 2005. ‘Effective extension delivery and food FDAE. 2013. A Survey of the Agricultural Extension security: Its implications’. Keynote address delivered at Agents in the ADPs in Nigeria. Abuja, Nigeria: Federal the 18th Annual South West Zonal REFILS workshop, Department of Agricultural Extension. 15–19 Feb 2005, Institute of Agricultural Research and Jagtap, S. 2008. Field Project in Ghana. Wa, Ghana: Training, Ibadan, Nigeria. Global Climate Technology for Development. Arokoyo, T. 2007. ‘ICTs application agricultural extension service delivery’. Proceedings of 12th Annual Conference Agricultural Extension Society of Nigeria, 4–7 July 2007, Maiduguri, Nigeria.

7 Policy Support for Agricultural Resilience 66 NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK

7.1 Introduction Box 7.1 Policy areas for improving resilience This chapter proposes actions that can be taken by government, the private sector, NGOs and CBOs to The Honourable Minister of Agriculture, Dr expedite the shift to climate-resilient agriculture. Such Akinwumi Adesina, has outlined six policy areas actions must be underpinned by policies and backed for improving the resilience of agriculture. by legislation, including the revision of existing laws and regulations, and the creation of new institutions, 1. Affordable inputs.Nigeria now has as needed. a database of farmers, with 14.5 million registered as of December 2014. Within The FMARD is already working to improve the 120 days of the launch of the database resilience of agriculture against the effects of climate programme, 1.2 million farmers received change by improving agro-meteorological services, vouchers to purchase subsidized seeds and diversifying agricultural practices, improving links in fertilizers through their mobile phones as agricultural value chains, enhancing social protection part of the Growth Enhancement Scheme. and microfinance, and preparing for disasters. It will In 2014, 7 million farmers participated in also be important to minimize or eliminate aspects of the scheme; this has not only successfully agricultural policies that will exacerbate the adverse reached farmers, but also stimulated impacts of climate change. wider markets for agricultural inputs and agricultural productivity. At the same time, food production had risen by 21 million 7.2 Ongoing Policies tonnes in December 2014. 2. Financial services. The Central Bank of for Climate-Resilient Nigeria has established a US$350 million risk- Agriculture sharing facility to reduce the risk of lending to farmers and agribusinesses. The facility will Nigeria embarked on a major transformation of its leverage US$3.5 billion of lending from banks agriculture sector with the launch of the ATA in 2011. to agriculture. It will also reduce interest rates The main goal is to add 20 million tonnes of food to paid by farmers from 18% to 8%. The Federal the domestic supply and to create 3.5 million jobs by Government is also recapitalizing the Bank of Agriculture to lend at single digit interest rates 2015. This means accelerating the production of local to farmers. Financial services include weather food staples, reducing dependence on food imports index-based insurance schemes. Because and turning Nigeria into a net exporter of food. Nigeria many farmers will not be able to afford the no longer considers agriculture as a development cost of insurance premiums, subsidies will programme, but as a business that can generate be provided to support them and reduce wealth for millions of people. The first step is to the high fixed cost of insurance products. enhance resilience and so ensure food security. Box 7.1 Area-based flood insurance schemes will be describes the ongoing policy measures for improving established in areas prone to floods. resilience in the agriculture sector. 3. Enhanced capacity for prediction and assessment. The capacity to predict shocks and thereby manage risk is being built by 7.3 Strengthening deploying satellite imagery and remote- Development sensing tools to assess the effects of climatic shocks on food production. When the country Initiatives experienced a major flood in September 2012 – the worst in decades – many asked Improving agro- for a state of emergency to be declared. The Minister knew the situation was serious, but meteorological services considered it to be less devastating than the picture being painted by the public. In Planning for climate-change-related agro-ecological partnership with the International Water risks must be based on reliable weather information. Management Institute, satellite imagery Agro-meteorological services provide information on and remote sensing tools were deployed to weather events and advisory services on adaptation and cropping systems. Weather data can be related to CONTINUED CHAPTER 7: POLICY SUPPORT FOR AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE 67

determine the extent of flooding across the for Improved Nutrition and the Bill & Melinda country. Estimates showed that no more than Gates Foundation. In partnership with 1.4 million ha of land were inundated and only the International Potato Center, Nigeria is 467,000 ha of land were expected to suffer promoting orange-fleshed sweet potato crop loss. This represented only 1.17% of the (which is rich in beta carotene), with the total cultivated area. goal of reaching 1 million households by 2015. Policies are also needed to promote 4. Food security. Policies have been put improved farm-level storage systems to in place to encourage the cultivation reduce high post-harvest loses in the food of drought-tolerant crops (cassava and supply system. Regional food reserves should sorghum) and to develop markets for them also be supported. In 2012, for example, to enhance resilience in food systems. A Nigeria contributed 32,000 million tonnes major effort was launched to turn Nigeria of grain to support the Republic of Niger in into the largest processor of cassava and addressing its food shortage. sorghum in the world. Fiscal policies are being used to encourage the production of high-quality cassava flour to replace some of the wheat imported for bread and POLICY OPTIONS confectionary, as well as for the production Institutional policy structures should ensure: of starch, dried cassava chips for export, and high-fructose cassava syrup for sweeteners, participatory planning of demand-driven sorbitol and ethanol. Cassava bread, made programmes on decentralized weather from 20% cassava flour and 80% wheat flour, forecasting, along with information is on the market in Nigeria, and is cheaper dissemination to different AEZs in Nigeria than 100% wheat flour bread. This will put an enabling environment and over US$1 billion back into the pockets of infrastructures for reliable weather data cassava farmers and processors. management and forecasting 5. Water management. With more stronger institutional links between frequent and intense floods and droughts meteorological stations and the agriculture expected, there is a need to improve water sector, with reliable weather forecasting management, including water use efficiency. disseminated through suitable outreach The amount of arable land under irrigation programmes to smallholder farmers; in Africa is low at less than 3%, compared electronic forecasts that use mobile to close to 50% in Asia. Targeted policies technology could be explored as a means of will be put in place for better agricultural reaching the more remote rural areas water management, including subsidies for greater focus on research and development motorized pumps (especially for women of crop varieties and management practices farmers), financing the leasing of irrigation adapted to extreme weather events equipment, community loans for the management of watersheds, establishing the creation of free and easily accessible youth-led irrigation service providers, and weather banks or a national database that research staff can use in assessing and subsidies for alternative energy in rural areas predicting climate-related impacts on to allow the powering of motorized pumps. agriculture. 6. Social safety nets. Policies to reduce vulnerability cover conditional cash transfers, school feeding programmes and nutritional typical land uses in different agro-ecological zones of interventions. The ‘Saving one million lives’ the country to help tactical and logistical planning for initiative targets community management of acute malnutrition and integrated climate change adaptation. There is an urgent need to child feeding to reduce undernutrition. improve agro-meteorological services in developing Already, 200,000 severely malnourished countries, since farmers are currently not well informed children are receiving care. Nigeria released and have little capacity to cope with and recover from three pro-vitamin A cassava varieties in the effects of climate variability. partnership with the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture, the Global Alliance Although education campaigns are currently in place to inform farming communities of the likely impacts CONTINUED of climate change and the need to adapt or cope 68 NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK under such occurrences, preparedness remains a key area of concern. In an agrarian country like Nigeria, an ACTIONS AND POLICY OPTIONS ideal way to cope with climate variability is to develop In rain-fed agriculture, practices to adapt strategic plans that can be implemented at multiple could include: spatial and temporal scales. Agro-meteorological Shift the sowing or planting date (one advisory services are an important part of such a month earlier or later than the traditional strategy. For example, in India an advisory board of date) based on access to improved the Climate Change Division provides information to weather forecasts. farmers on crop management options appropriate to the prevailing weather conditions (Govind and Stigter, Encourage conservation or organic agriculture, including management of 2010; Government of India, 2012; CAK, 2013). manure and residues. A meteorological service focused on climatic variation Use inorganic fertilizers, with applications needs to work closely with the NARS. There is a need for tied to weather forecasts. synchronized and automatic weather collection systems Enhance rainwater harvesting. across the different agro-ecological zones of the country to guarantee high data resolution. Furthermore, reliable Conserve feed in the form of hay, haylage, data processing will allow for a systematic presentation crop residue processing and conservation. of spatial and temporal weather variability and mapping Inform pastoralists about feed of vulnerable areas (BNRCC, 2011). conservation. Reseed all federal documented grazing Changes in agricultural reserves; 600 ha have already been practices reseeded in Udubo Grazing Reserve in Bauchi State. Agriculture in Nigeria is mostly rain-fed and is therefore highly vulnerable to the impacts of a changing climate. Develop stock routes and watering points. Farmers will need to adapt to climate change by Policy options: introducing new technologies that produce adequate Create a policy framework to support yields even in the face of changing climatic and capacity building in extension services. weather conditions. Given that shorter rainy seasons and increasing rainfall variability are predicted, it is Expand irrigated agriculture in water- prudent to consider specific adaptation strategies deficient zones and best-practice water for different farming systems. Two fundamental management for the whole country. approaches to effective climate change adaptation are Make policies to create an enabling crop diversification and selection of high-yielding crop environment for accessibility of funds at varieties, including stress-tolerant and short-duration low interest rates. crop varieties. Farming practices that are consistent Provide economic incentives and with the principles of sustainable land management transitional programmes for the short will deliver higher yields and enhance resilience to term. climate variability.

Farmers manage their farms within a multi-risk context. They therefore adopt strategies that are informed by their socio-ecological context, their economic Agricultural diversification priorities and the various options available to them, Agricultural diversification is the reallocation of some with the aim of maximizing the current conditions of a farm’s productive resources (land, capital, farm (Wiesmann et al., 2011). However, adaptation actions equipment, paid labour, etc.) into new activities. cannot always be associated directly with climatic This redistributes farmers’ risk in the face of climate triggers; their utility depends on the extent to which variability and price fluctuations, as well as generating farmers can incorporate them into their strategies. The context therefore needs to be considered when additional income. Diversification in agriculture can promoting adaptation actions and attributing impacts mean: a shift from farm to non-farm activities; a shift to climate variability and climate change. Box 7.2 from a less profitable crop (or enterprise) to a more highlights an example of agricultural technology that profitable crop (or enterprise); or using resources in has enhanced farmers’ adaptive capacity. diverse but complementary activities. CHAPTER 7: POLICY SUPPORT FOR AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE 69

Box 7.2 Micro check dams on-farm food processing non-farming activities and rural jobs, such as for water harvesting on retail shops seasonal streams expansion of aquaculture through cage culture fish farming, etc. In many watersheds in Nigeria, seasonal, small- capacity streams and rivers are often ignored exploitation of under-used fish resources in the as a source of water for agriculture. However, Nigerian offshore waters with adequate water harvesting systems, production of non-traditional crops within an the yield or discharge of such streams can existing market. be harnessed as a useful water source at low Crop diversification and genetic diversity help cost and with minimal technological skills. To mitigate such climate risks as unpredictable dry meet this need, the Institute of Agricultural spells and flash floods. A mixed farming system can Research and Training (IAR&T) developed the exploit crop/tree/livestock synergies to increase micro check dam for water harvesting and livelihood options and incomes while enriching and storage. This makes water available to farmers buffering water and nutrient supplies, protecting for supplemental irrigation or for total irrigated soils and moderating microclimates. agriculture during the dry season. The stored water can also be used for livestock during the Diversification also includes the reclamation of dry season. degraded lands by, for example, using an adapted agroforestry system with high-value annual crops A micro check dam is a small embankment like okras and drought-tolerant trees or bushes or oil- structure built or placed across a stream or producing crops, and techniques of water and soil small river to retain and store run-off within a conservation. pond excavated for that purpose. This simple technology has been implemented at numerous Introduction of grain legumes leads to better soil sites in southwest Nigeria with the assistance and pest management. Incorporating nitrogen- of IAR&T hydrologists and engineers. The water fixing legumes through rotation or intercropping conservation benefits are clear, and farmers with dryland cereals improves soil fertility, reduces testify that micro check dams assist them nutrient mining, can help trap pests and could lead greatly, particularly during extended breaks in to a more diversified diet and better household rainfall during the rainy season. nutrition.

Agricultural diversification must be achieved within the principle of green growth; i.e., fostering economic growth and development while ensuring that natural ecosystems continue to provide the resources and environmental services on which people depend. Box 7.3 describes an example (a) (b) of agricultural diversification through innovative strategies in aquaculture. A small stream (a) before and (b) after the construction of a micro check dam.

Source: IAR&T (no date) POLICY OPTIONS Research is crucial for successful agricultural diversification and, as Examples of agricultural diversification in Nigeria such, policy that supports research for include: innovative methods/technologies should be promoted. a shift in the cropping system, for example

towards high-value commodities like vegetables Policy that creates an enabling environment for accessibility of funds or more drought-tolerant crops at low interest rates would promote mixed farming systems such as crop–livestock agricultural diversification. and agroforestry 70 NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK

Box 7.3 Agricultural Water management diversification through Better water management is a major option for innovative strategies in improving low-yielding smallholder farming systems in sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in the aquaculture face of climate change. Its importance has been highlighted in Nigeria since the severe drought Nigeria requires about 2.66 million tonnes of fish of 1973. Crop and livestock productivity can be annually to meet its needs. The domestic supply of improved using rainwater, surface water and fish from capture and aquaculture is only about 0.6 groundwater. Agricultural water management million tonnes, so there is a deficit of over 2 million tonnes annually. However, the natural lakes that systems can be classified into several categories: contribute to fish supply in the country are drying up Soil and water conservation following a 20-year period of below-average rainfall. Run-off harvesting and management Nigeria imports fish to address the shortfall, at huge financial cost. Aquaculture will have to be stepped up On-farm storage for supplementary irrigation to address food security and also provide alternative Run-off diversion and spreading livelihood options for rural farmers. Current

government policy is to gradually reduce fish imports Spate irrigation while increasing fish production. This could easily be Wetlands farming in valley bottoms or flood achieved if tested low-level technology is applied in recession cultivation (e.g., fadama, land drainage aquaculture. The cage culture system of farming has interventions) been tested and earlier government intervention Stream diversion for smallholder irrigation, using projects have been successful in Lagos and Bauchi either gravity or pumps States, where a programme encompassing the Various irrigation technologies (low-head drip, supply of equipment, capacity building, supply of sprinkler, furrow and basin, micro systems) seeds and feeds was fully implemented. Soil management and fertility improvement Cage culture could maintain climate change neutrality as its impacts are low, especially when Conservation agriculture (conservation tillage, technology is applied and managed. Earlier cage crop residue management, agroforestry, etc.). intervention used a 2 m x 3 m x 1.5 m (9 m3) cage, Managing water for agriculture means improving which can rear three cycles of fish annually, providing water use efficiency through careful planning, up to a tonne of fish per cycle. In Lagos, four cycles monitoring, harvesting, distribution and use of water are achievable, showing that the system could meet to achieve maximum yield and productivity, while the national goal of self-sufficiency in fish. A national providing sufficient water for domestic use and goal of 1 million cages over five years across the maintaining the sustainability of the water source. country could be set, which would give a minimum of 2 million tonnes of fish beyond what is being There is considerable potential to increase the area produced presently. The concept of agricultural fish under irrigation in Nigeria and thereby increase the farming estates, with large-scale earth ponds and productivity of key crops, including cereals, cowpea tank production systems, should be considered and high-value horticultural crops. However, efforts for land-based aquaculture where facilities can towards increased irrigation also need to provide for be provided centrally or smaller-scale facilities groundwater recharge and to guard against over- interconnected within a location. use of irrigation and the related threat of soil salinity.

A survey by the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA, 1993) suggests that 39% of the country’s land mass is potentially suitable for agriculture. Out of this, between 4.0 million and 4.5 million ha (approximately 4.5–5.0% of the land) are judged suitable for irrigated agriculture, but only about 1 million ha is currently irrigated in Nigeria. Source: H.A. Fashina-Bombata, Department of Fisheries College of Agriculture, Lagos State University, Lagos, Nigeria. By contrast, India irrigates nearly 45 times as much land. CHAPTER 7: POLICY SUPPORT FOR AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE 71

Statistics from the FMWR indicate that, of the 323 of the pond is site-specific and determined dams in Nigeria, 106 are large dams (with walls according to the crop–water requirement. Outlet higher than 15 m, or 10–15 m high with a crest drains are constructed to link with the main drain length of over 500 m, or having a reservoir capacity to carry run-off water into the pond through an of 1 million m3); 27 are medium-sized dams (with inlet structure. An earthen embankment, well walls 8–10 m high); and 192 are small dams (walls compacted and sown with grass to prevent less than 8 m). Since big dams are expensive, take erosion, is built around the pond. When the pond a long time to deploy, and provoke environmental is full, excess water is discharged through an problems, low-technology and low-cost small outlet structure or spillway. The embankment is dams based on indigenous water conservation and about 1.5 m high from the ground level. Water retention strategies should be preferred. Box 7.4 storage capacity depends on size, soil conditions and other environmental factors. describes a run-off water harvesting technology. An excellent example of the use of dams to spur In 1992, the FMARD, through the Federal and sustain agricultural development in Nigeria Departure of Agricultural Land Resources, is the Kano River Irrigation Project. However, such designed and constructed a prototype of the projects should always be part of a whole basin run-off water harvesting structure at Damagun development in order to take adequate care of in Yobe State. More than 20 years later, the downstream effects. technology is still functioning and benefitting local farmers. In 2006, through the Millennium The preferred approach is to determine the water Development Goals, the Ministry was able to needs of agriculture under different climate undertake the construction of 16 additional scenarios and the characteristics and extent of run-off water harvesting structures spread these water requirements. The water could be across Yobe, Jigawa and Sokoto States at a cost sourced from above or below ground. Surface and of 500 million Naira. The main beneficiaries of subsurface water must be monitored, measured and this project are farmers, pastoralists and the managed to meet the nation’s agricultural needs. local communities in the vicinity of the project. Successful implementation requires collaboration This is to be done in collaboration with the FMWR. and coordination between the FMARD, state governments, local agricultural development projects and local governments. The role of local Box 7.4 Run-off water governments includes providing sites, security harvesting and soil and maintenance of the run-off structures upon moisture retention completion of the project. technology The run-off water harvesting technology has been shown to be a relatively inexpensive The mean annual rainfall in the country varies way to reduce the vulnerability of farmers to from 2500 mm/year in the southern parts of rainfall variability in the ‘drought frontline’ states the country to 500 mm/year in the north. The (Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Kano, Katsina, seasonal rainfall in the far north of the country Kebbi, Jigawa, Sokoto Yobe and Zamfara). It is usually of short duration but high intensity, should be an important component of the resulting in high run-off. Since amounts of rainfall strategies for achieving agricultural resilience in are inadequate to begin with, it is critical to the drier AEZs of the country. ensure that run-off water is harvested, stored and used to augment rainwater for both crop and livestock farming.

This study describes a technology designed to cushion the effects of drought in the arid and semi-arid areas of Nigeria. Run-off water harvesting involves the construction of an earth pond on a permanent drainage site. The size

CONTINUED 72 NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK

For Nigeria, an effective insurance system should: ACTIONS AND POLICY OPTIONS be affordable and accessible to all rural people Actions to address priority risks: compensate for income losses to protect Increase the area of cultivated land under consumption and debt repayment capacity irrigation. be practical to implement, given potential limits Promote indigenous practices for sustainable on data availability water use in agriculture. be suitable for provision by the private sector with Intensify water resource conservation few or no government subsidies campaigns and practice, to reach out to the

farming communities through the newly avoid the problems of moral hazard and adverse established Extension Department of the selection. FMARD, with strong support from the FMWR. A weather-based index can be successful, provided Reduce water used in irrigation by changing that the data forming the index are reliable, ongoing the cropping calendar, crop mix, irrigation and replete with a continuous record. The challenge method and areas cultivated. is to assure that the index sufficiently encompasses Cooperate and work with the Federal the actual losses for a particular farmer or farmers’ Ministry of Environment in getting the cooperative. Much work remains to be done to National Strategic Action Plan implemented, develop the necessary techniques and practices to especially the National Drought address the future challenges in index insurance. Preparedness Action Plan and corresponding Nevertheless, index insurance provides a safety net flood control plans. for farmers and protection against climate shocks. Policy options: Because insurance prices and policies can be Set up an agricultural water management updated, insurance could be an important tool for committee at the ministerial level between adaptation. In the short term, it can allow increased the FMARD and the FMWR to ensure accumulation of wealth that smallholder farmers effective coordination of programmes and activities designed for optimal water usage can use in successful financial transitions. By in the agriculture sector. representing climate change in updated insurance pricing, incentives can be made available to manage Revisit the current statute of the river basin worthwhile risks while transitioning out of activities authorities to restore active food production roles as originally envisaged and practised. that become unfeasible as climate change unfolds. Explore options for cost sharing between There is a high potential for growth in risk government and farmers to ensure that management in this country. The Risk and Insurance infrastructure is maintained and ownership Managers Society of Nigeria has advised government by farmers increased. and corporate bodies to initiate proactive measures to deal with climate change as the world’s weather is becoming more extreme. The National Agriculture Risk management and Insurance Company (NAIC) is currently evaluating agricultural insurance options for introducing weather index-based insurance in Nigeria. Climate-related risks faced by agricultural businesses include flooding (direct damage to assets and indirect During the ACARN Town Hall meeting with banking damage via supply chain disruption), storms, heat and insurance stakeholders held on 23 September waves, threats to water availability, pest invasion, crop 2013 in Abuja, senior officials of NAIC referred to a failures, eutrophication, fish kills and mass livestock report by a consultant commissioned by NAIC to deaths. Governments and lending facilities in some study the feasibility of weather index-based crop countries have established index-based insurance insurance. The consultant advised against such programmes to create insurance or safeguarding undertaking because it was primarily designed systems against disasters. According to IFPRI (2009), for situations of monocropping, whereas Nigerian “index-based insurance can serve as a buffer against agriculture is composed mostly of mixed cropping. climate extremes and provide the necessary support Concerns about the adequacy of meteorological system for farmers to navigate an uncertain climatic information available in the country were also raised future and avoid financial ruin”. in the report. The recommendations of the consultant CHAPTER 7: POLICY SUPPORT FOR AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE 73 notwithstanding, NAIC indicated interest in going Secure property rights forward with a limited scope project to demonstrate the feasibility of weather index-based crop insurance Farmers in Nigeria tend to be landless tenants and/ in the country. or to have small farms, with an average holding of less than the 1.5 ha average for smallholders in sub-Saharan The Micro-Ensure programme, which can be a model Africa. In the rare cases where they own land, it is often for Nigeria, introduced one of Africa’s first weather marginal land without irrigation. They are generally index-based crop insurance schemes during the unable to improve their land because of lack of income 2005/06 growing season as a pilot in Malawi. This and access to credit or lack of incentive due to the product provided protection against crop failure precarious nature of land ownership. caused by drought or excess rain, and enabled farmers to access credit in order to purchase quality During the Town Hall meetings, the ACARN found the seeds and fertilizers to maximize output. By linking issue of land ownership and land tenure to be quite farms to local weather stations and introducing emotional. Although land would seem to be abundant an automatic payout process, farmers were not in Nigeria, given the vast tracts of uncultivated land, required to file a claim or go through an expensive the customary systems of land ownership mean that loss-verification process in the event of crop failure. farmers feel landless. A survey by JICA (1993) showed Following the success of this pilot scheme, weather that at least 39% of Nigeria’s land mass is suitable for index-based crop insurance was extended to cover agriculture. The fact that the farmers work the land farmers in Rwanda and Tanzania as well as in India as tenants means that they usually pay rent with part and the Philippines. of their harvest, and this sometimes cuts deeply into their profits. Furthermore, the issue of tenancy means that there is very little incentive for farmers to make POLICY OPTIONS investments in improving the soil, water and other Institute a policy framework is crucial resources they recognize as essential in adapting to the for incorporating risk management challenges imposed by the changing climate. There and agricultural insurance for climate is abundant evidence that the farmers can produce change adaptation. The policy would sustainable agricultural systems that will boost food incorporate disaster-planning responses security and lift themselves and their families out of into governance. Risk transfer/financial poverty. management of natural disaster insurance and other anti-risk financing mechanisms From the ensuing exchanges with the farmers, it was form a critical part of a comprehensive clear that the issue of land ownership and land rights disaster risk management strategy, and have the potential to play an important have to be resolved equitably to increase agricultural role in disaster risk reduction and climate productivity. There is no doubting the conviction of change adaptation. the farmers that the issue of sustainable livelihoods is hinged on the security of ownership or access to land. Liberalize the agricultural insurance market – a policy that was unanimously Discussion on the management of river basins during endorsed during the Town Hall Meetings. the Town Hall meetings described a system of land Private sector involvement will introduce tenure in the 1980s, when the mandate of the river competition, afford choice, lower basin authorities included agriculture under which premiums, etc. farmers were allocated land almost in perpetuity. Create favourable economic incentives Farmers agreed that the system was the next best thing and policies to encourage entry of non- to outright ownership of land and insisted that the long- governmental financial sectors into term and seemingly intractable issue of inequality in agricultural markets to provide long-term land ownership be addressed. credit and innovative insurance products. In a submission to the ACARN, a member of the recently Engage civil society groups in participatory forums to address their formed Presidential Technical Committee on Land vulnerability and identify adaptations to Reform, who is also on the staff of the FMARD office climate impacts. that serves as secretariat to this committee, indicated that the mandate of the committee was wide ranging Examine existing laws and regulations for opportunities to improve governance and and transcended the question of agricultural lands. The resilience to climate variables. ACARN requested that the member bring this specific issue to the attention of the committee, which he did. 74 NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK

The NSIF-SLM has three phases. The first phase focuses ACTIONS AND POLICY OPTIONS on a preliminary investment framework for sustainable Actions to address priority risks: land management using Cross River State as a pilot. Phase 2 will expand the process to seven or eight The FMARD to liaise with communities and more states, while Phase 3 will up-scale the process Town Unions towards guaranteeing access to build up to the fully implemented NSIF-SLM for to land for rural farmers. the entire country. The implementation plan and The FMARD agricultural extension staff to investment framework for the pilot in Cross River State negotiate how to offset the rents paid by has been completed. Outcomes of the process are farmers to landlords, which are cutting into highlighted in Box 7.5. their profits and serving as a drawback to continued engagement on the land. Policy options: Box 7.5 A pilot strategic The Federal Government to reform the investment framework Land Use Act, particularly as it concerns for sustainable land agricultural lands. managementin Cross River The Federal Government to enact a more egalitarian Land Rights Act. State

The process and modalities for developing the pilot strategic investment framework for Sustainable land management sustainable land management began with a Sustainable land management (discussed in Chapter series of small and large meetings with several 3) should be regarded as a national development relevant stakeholders. This fostered the emergence imperative aligned to long-term economic growth, of a broad-based multi-stakeholder coalition for food security and conservation of the nation’s resource sustainable land management in Cross River State. capital. The FMARD has developed the Nigeria The stakeholders’ efforts were complimented Strategic Investment Framework for Sustainable by analytical studies and field data collection Land Management (NSIF-SLM). This aims to guide informed by geographic information system investment-based development of the nation’s land (GIS)-based assessment to provide the necessary and renewable natural resources, with an emphasis background information for investment planning. on reducing the risk posed by climate change to the The focal area for interventions in Cross River livelihoods of local farmers. NSIF-SLM can mitigate State, as agreed among stakeholders, includes climate change through sustainable practices, and areas of: secure appropriate benefits in the process, by ensuring the productive use of the nation’s natural resources intensive agricultural activities and promoting forest and watershed management critical watersheds as well as the development of the agriculture sector’s prime ecosystems and biodiversity investment programmes for national food security. ecotourism potential. The Framework is organized under five themes: Although priority is accorded to these areas 1. Supporting on-the-ground activities for scaling up in terms of channelling interventions, it was sustainable land management. agreed by the stakeholders that this will be 2. Strengthening the enabling environment (institutional best operationalized within the framework and policy) for sustainable land management. of the agro-ecological zones of the state. Recommended interventions are reported for 3. Strengthening commercial services and sustainable specific themes: livelihood options. Support on-the-ground activities. 4. Supporting sustainable land management research and dissemination of best technologies. Strengthen the policy and Institutional environment for sustainable land 5. Improving and strengthening knowledge management. management, monitoring and evaluation, and information dissemination. CONTINUED CHAPTER 7: POLICY SUPPORT FOR AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE 75

forced to sell any surplus they produce at harvest time Strengthen commercial and advisory services at low prices. Better market access and information for sustainable land management and would encourage them to produce more and help to alternative livelihood options. increase their incomes, as well as encouraging more of Support sustainable land management the youth to make a career in agriculture. At present, research and dissemination of best market constraints and lack of storage facilities means techniques. farmers tend to produce only what they can sell. Improve and strengthen knowledge In pre-independence Nigeria, markets were well management, monitoring and evaluation and information dissemination for sustainable developed, although targeted mostly at the key land management. commodities of cocoa, palm oil, groundnut and rubber. Large private buyers were the dominant Source: Bisong (2011) players in a market that operated largely on free- market principles, although there was some government involvement in ensuring an enabling environment. The post-independence era saw ACTIONS AND POLICY OPTIONS government take over the operations of the produce Priority actions would include: marketing boards. Of course, the usual malaise set Support sustainable land management in and it has been in a free-fall ever since. With the research and dissemination of best structural adjustment programme of the 1980s, practices and techniques. This is to promote attempts were made under the guidance of the the creation of additional knowledge to International Monetary Fund to bring back the support interventions. produce marketing boards, but these attempts were Improve and strengthen sustainable land at best tentative, lacked coherence with other policies management knowledge management, and, not surprisingly, failed to resolve the issue of monitoring and evaluation and information market availability. dissemination. This is aimed at ensuring that knowledge generated is managed and Farmers at the Town Hall meetings insisted that it communicated in a user-friendly manner to was imperative to create new commodity boards stakeholders. operating on free-market lines as a way to guarantee Provide support for the rollout and full markets and fair prices for their products. Besides implementation of the NSIF-SLM. the commodity boards for high-value produce, it is important to assure optimal trading conditions in Policy options: traditional markets. These remain important outlets for Make sustainable land management a core both producers and consumers, particularly for rural agricultural policy. and peri-urban areas. However, farmers complained Adopt the NSIF-SLM as the vehicle about the operations of nefarious middlemen who for implementing sustainable land insist on buying their products at a fixed price. They management in the agriculture sector. then re-sell them at inflated prices literally under Invest in sustainable land management the noses of the farmers. One sure way out of this research and dissemination. naked exploitation is for farmers to form cooperatives or associations. As the cliché goes, there is always Improve agricultural extension by providing strength in numbers. These associations should then training on sustainable land management to extension services personnel. be empowered to gain access to formal urban markets and informal markets through deliberate government policies to support the establishment of weekly farmers markets in metropolitan areas. Agricultural market development A recurrent suggestion to improve fair prices in these markets is to address the high perishability of farm Farmers attending the ACARN Town Hall meetings produce due to poor storage conditions. Such losses expressed their concern about the absence of are estimated at 30% globally, but are much higher in markets and marketing services in support of the developing countries. Humid and variable conditions government campaign to increase production. associated with climate change (such as unseasonable Participants complained that, at present, they are rains close to harvest time) are likely to increase food 76 NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK storage losses. The Federal Government has reacted positively to this by increasing the number of storage Box 7.6 Linking farmers to facilities. The plan is to further expand storage markets: key lessons facilities across the country with concentrations in known areas of high agricultural production. These Several studies have been conducted over the facilities will allow farmers to bide their time and last five years to document the experience of take advantage of market dynamics to get the best governments, donors, NGOs and private companies prices for their produce. In the quest to improve in linking smallholders to markets. While methods storage, attention must be paid to the incidence of differ between them, the overall lessons learned from storage diseases linked to climatic conditions (such as these studies are remarkably similar on many points, aflatoxins on maize and groundnuts) since these can with six key messages. present a risk to human health. 1. Export markets, especially those for high- The growth of the supermarket culture in urban and value and niche products, are limited, may be excessively demanding and can be high-risk. peri-urban areas offers rural farmers opportunities to get good prices for their more perishable produce. Smallholders face many risks, including illness, However, first, there is a need to improve rural roads pests and diseases and drought. At present, to facilitate transportation of goods from the farm to they tend to manage them through their social the supermarket. There is a plan by the Ministry of networks. However, these are not adequate Aviation to improve farmers’ access to international to deal with supplementary marketing risks markets, particularly for fresh produce like flowers (e.g., shifts in supply and demand, product and vegetables, through the establishment of fresh perishability, long supply chains, process produce storage warehouses at all cargo airports complexity, uncertainty in government policymaking and practice). Smallholders are in the country (the ‘Aerotropolis’ scheme). This has therefore encouraged to look first to domestic the technical backing of the FMARD and holds and regional markets, since these are large, great promise for rural farmers in terms of access expanding, probably more stable and less to international markets and the high profits this demanding on the characteristics of the could bring. However, road infrastructure linking produce. One recent study (Vorley et al., 2012) rural to urban areas must improve for this scheme argues that, for the vast majority of smallholders to realize its potential. Again, attention must be paid in the developing world, links to markets are to the barriers that prevent low-income countries informal. The authors express concern that from attaining their export potentials caused by paying too much attention to new and more unfair international trade practices and protectionist sophisticated chains involving exporters and regulations. processors will cause policymakers to lose sight of the importance of informal market links and Market access is a vital link in the value chain for the fate of smallholders who depend on them. agricultural products and improving market access 2. It is important to focus on realizing a good will put more economic power in the hands of the return on investment, whether on farms or in farmers. Box 7.6 lists overall lessons learned from past supply chains. Successful links can be made with efforts to improve market access for farmers. smallholders, but not necessarily to the very poorest. Environmental policies 3. Small-scale farmers need to form groups to in support of agricultural deal with processors, traders and exporters to overcome the high transaction costs associated resilience with dealing with individual producers. One way of making such groups more inclusive may be It is important that adaptations to climate change in allowing some members to participate to a lesser the agriculture sector take into account the role of the degree than others, but with fewer rights. This, of natural environment and that the solutions developed course, breaks with the longstanding principle of are in harmony with nature. Such an approach will cooperatives, in which all members are equal. help to retain natural biodiversity, ecosystems and the goods and services that help support economic The least successful types of organization are those that are imposed from outside and based prosperity. The increasing pace of climate change will on donor-driven criteria (e.g., size, organizational place unprecedented pressures on access to and use of natural resources. Nigeria has a range of protected CONTINUED CHAPTER 7: POLICY SUPPORT FOR AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE 77

rules, membership rules) that do not resonate ACTIONS AND POLICY OPTIONS locally, have limited internal capacity and adhere to broad and ill-defined objectives. More Actions to address priority risks: successful results are observed from horizontal The Federal Government to increase organizations that have strict entry requirements storage facilities to reduce spoilage of farm and are created by local entrepreneurs to address produce. a specific need (Mitchell and Coles, 2011). Increase the number of processing facilities 4. While producer organizations can reduce located close to rural areas to provide value- transactions costs and give farmers power when added schemes. interacting with large firms in the supply chain, Encourage rural farmers to form caution should be exercised in trying to replace cooperatives or farmer associations to existing private sector functions by collective protect their interests and guard against action; unless, of course, it is clear that the undue exploitation. replaced functions are ineffective, inefficient or grossly unfair. Policy options: 5. Supply chains may be more effective and Government to improve physical and social efficient when some agency acts as a infrastructure in rural areas, especially roads champion, taking the initiative in brokering linking to urban areas. new arrangements, overseeing changes and Appropriate government agencies to help resolving problems. This is often a dominant in regulation of standards to improve processor, wholesaler or exporter with some export value of produce. degree of market power, but it may be an NGO, government body or donor project. Local governments to enact regulations to ban the activities of corrupt middlemen in Champions often take risks and invest in new traditional markets. arrangements; private sector firms will usually only do this if there is some commensurate reward for the effort, so this will usually only occur when there is a business opportunity. Champions, of course, have some market power, so the challenge is to create conditions that will ACTIONS AND POLICY OPTIONS encourage such initiatives, but without allowing Actions to address priority risks: champions to extract undue rents. Adopt an ecosystem approach to 6. The final common theme is perhaps the single agricultural adaptation measures and strongest refrain in these studies: the importance practices. of process in building links, rather than imposing blueprints. Prevent encroachment on particularly sensitive areas, both on land and in the sea. For all the cases reviewed, there is a striking

absence of detailed discussion on these Implement integrated and sustainable approaches to land management, e.g., arrangements. Instead, the studies stress the agroforestry and conservation agriculture importance of taking time to build links, to be that can significantly increase yields while flexible, and to build up local competences delivering better environmental outcomes. and, correspondingly, to not impose models. These technologies would also enhance Whatever arrangements are being developed, farmers’ resilience to climate variability and those engaged have to build trust between change. smallholders and others in the chain and have to Policy options: develop their competences as the arrangements Enact appropriate laws to create additional develop. This, in turn, implies that outside forest reserves, marine parks, wildlife agencies, especially those in the public sector, refuges, Ramsar wetland sites, etc. need to take care to not push for too much change too quickly, whatever the temptations of Strengthen laws against environmental degradation, including pollution. targets and the need to disburse budgets.

Source: Wiggins and Keats (2013). Enact integrated coastal areas management. 78 NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK areas, including parks and reserves. These locations provide important protection for fragile environments. Box 7.7 Social protection

Nigeria’s wildlife sites and forest reserves are clearly measures fragmented and do not represent a coherent and resilient ecological network that is capable of Institutionalization of farmers’ responding to climate change and other pressures. organizations The objective should be to enable these important Farmers organized in groups (as in the Fadama sites to make the transition in ways that allow them to projects) have greater leverage with the Nigerian retain high biodiversity value, thereby enabling them public and authorities. They also have reciprocal to play a vital nature conservation role. It is important arrangements among members, such as funds therefore, that in pursuit of intensification of agricultural the group can draw upon in times of disasters. production for economic growth and national The FMARD, together with the Nigerian insurance food security, every effort must be made to build industry, could explore the possibilities of collective environmental conservation into agricultural reforms. insurance for such groups. The destruction of forests, including mangroves, and the reckless encroachment on sensitive land and marine Weather index-based crop insurance environments must be halted (Ibe, 2013). Experience in India, Malawi and the Philippines Social protection programmes shows that this is a viable instrument that can be used to protect farm production from climate- When climatic hazards disrupt farmers’ livelihoods, related impacts. access to support in the form of social protection programmes can stop farmers from falling into Payment for environmental services deep poverty. It is thus important for the Federal Social protection programmes in terms of Government, through the FMARD, to provide social subsidies may be in conflict with international protection measures to support the functioning trade agreements such as those operated by the of agricultural production in the face of climatic WTO. However, the FMARD can use the policy and other livelihood risks, thereby maintaining window provided by WTO to offer such subsidies. development. In addition, the FMARD can build on the example Several social protection programmes have been of Switzerland to establish an environmental established in Nigeria and are at different stages protection programme in which farmers are paid of development and coverage. These include the for environmental services to the Nigerian people conditional transfer programme Care of the Poor, and, by extension, to the global community. This launched by the National Poverty Eradication can be linked to initiatives to promote sustainable programme, which is small in scope and covers land management in Nigeria. around 12,500 households, and an income transfer Asset restocking programme with links to Brazil for technical assistance (Nino-Zarazua et al., 2010). Hagen-Zanker and Holmes This approach can be adopted after such extreme (2012) report that, although not necessarily targeting climatic events as severe droughts and flooding. the poor, labour market programmes including In Nigeria this approach could be used to restock federal- and state-level public works programmes, the herds of pastoralists or the fingerlings of agricultural subsidies/inputs, and youth skills and fish farmers after severe climatic disturbances, employment programmes exist. or to promote the use of seeds adapted to local environmental conditions, with periodic Additionally, climate-resilient social protection adjustments to the changing climatic conditions. measures may be directly or indirectly linked to climate change. These measures include de-coupling Seed fairs and starter packs agricultural production from climatic conditions Just as the FMARD works with a voucher system for through adaptation, supporting farmers’ organizations, farmers in the Fadama projects to help them access weather index-based crop insurance, payment for extension services, vouchers can be extended to environmental services, subsidies, asset restocking and local input supplies, thereby addressing the danger cash transfers (Davies et al., 2009; Hagen-Zanker and of undercutting local input markets. Holmes, 2012). Box 7.7 describes some examples of social protection measures related to climate change. CONTINUED CHAPTER 7: POLICY SUPPORT FOR AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE 79

Cash transfers and promoting agricultural ACTIONS AND POLICY OPTIONS inputs to target groups Actions to address priority risks: This approach can raise incomes of the poor, reduce Encourage the private sector, donors, NGOs/ distress sales and contribute to asset building and CBOs and farmers’ organizations to assist local employment (Davies et al., 2009; Hagen-Zanker rural agricultural communities to form and Holmes, 2012). However, there is a need to micro-finance and credit schemes. ensure that elite capture by better-off farmers or Encourage the rural poor to join micro- ‘political’ (non-)farmers is minimized. finance schemes. Source: Chinwe Ifejika Speranza (2013) Policy options: Government should privatize the Agricultural Bank and grant it initial The role of micro-finance incentives to meet its mandate. Government should revisit the statutes In 2012, to kick-start its ATA, the FMARD launched the setting up the micro-finance banks to Growth Enhancement Scheme, which provides farm enable them to meet their objectives. inputs to small-scale farmers. During the ACARN’s interaction with farmers in Town Hall meetings in the Government should privatize the Nigerian Agricultural Insurance Commission and six geopolitical zones, the scheme was lauded as a liberalize the operations of agricultural revolutionary programme that has raised agricultural insurance schemes. production levels in the last growing season. It is obvious, however, that for the concept of agriculture as a business to take hold, farmers will have to get loans, this initiative has failed to help agriculture, due used to paying for inputs from a dominant private to a reluctance to work with the rural poor, who often sector. Their willingness to invest in inputs is anchored lacked literacy skills. Equally, government institutions in their expectation that the return at harvest will more like the Agricultural Bank have shown interest only than offset the input costs. in large-scale farmers and political farmers. Despite The majority of farmers, particularly those starting out expressions of interest from commercial banks for the first time, do not have initial capital to invest, during the Town Hall Meetings and activity in the and if they do, they may fear losing their investment agriculture sector, they have done nothing in real should the crop or livestock fail – especially as they terms to facilitate loans to small-scale farmers, despite have no insurance. This is where the role of micro- favourable policy from the Central Bank of Nigeria in finance/credit can make a huge difference. From this regard, as inspired by the Minister of Agriculture. history, it is clear that government credit schemes Farmers often complained about the exorbitant made available in the early period of the Green interest rates. Revolution in Asia proved highly effective in farm In the last three decades or so, there have come, situations where high returns on investments could mostly from Asia, numerous success stories of the be achieved. More problematic, however, was the effectiveness of small, locally managed credit schemes, provision of credit to farmers where the returns were including savings and loan operations, run by NGOs, characteristically low and the risks high. Experience private banks or farmers’ cooperatives. There are showed that the commercial banks were reluctant to many examples of best practices to learn from and get involved because the numbers of credit seekers many additional lessons in how to forge credible were large, the amounts involved were minor and micro-finance facilities. The Grameen Bank founded the paperwork was prohibitive. Governments, on the by Muhammad Yunus in the 1970s in Bangladesh other hand, could not ensure functional micro-finance provides another useful model. schemes due to bureaucracy and/or corruption. Disaster preparedness The current situation in Nigeria mimics that of the Asian Tiger economies during the Green Revolution. Disaster preparedness is part of climate mitigation Although previous governments have encouraged and is linked to other disaster management the establishment of micro-finance banks to assist activities including relief, rehabilitation, recovery and small- and medium-scale industries with savings and reconstruction. In practice, the level of preparedness 80 NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK and the ability to reduce vulnerability to disaster people have to be empowered to respond effectively largely depend on the development stage of a and contribute to the development of their own country or a community, and the balance between the communities on a sustained basis. strengths and imperfections in the functioning of its sectors, structures and institutions. Alternative livelihoods The level of disaster preparedness depends on The shocks and stresses caused by the changing the existing capabilities at all levels. One of the climate constitute an added pressure on farmers. requirements for disaster preparedness is, for instance, From the interactions of the ACARN with smallholder the establishment or improvement of monitoring farmers during the Town Hall meetings it was evident and early warning systems. These systems can ensure that farmers had recognized for a long while that prompt and adequate preparation and response as “something had happened” and “is still happening” to part of a preventive development strategy. Although the climate. Farmers reported the various measures disaster preparedness is an important component of they had taken on their own to cope with extreme preventive development, its usefulness can only be events like droughts and floods as well as the vagaries determined if the people who are affected by natural of climate variability, including growing different hazards are aware of the potential dangers. These varieties of crops and modifying planting dates and practices to cope with the shorter growing season. Those in livestock rearing recounted how climate ACTIONS AND POLICY OPTIONS change had altered the pastures and feed stocks Actions to address priority risks: on which their animals depend, and how rising temperatures have affected the vulnerability of these Deployment of early warning systems and animals. Farmers engaged in aquaculture told of the effective delivery of accurate and timely added concerns posed by changing availability of weather forecasts to populations at risk. water and how losses can occur, particularly during Creation of awareness among people living floods. in hazard-prone areas of the impending danger they face and how best to respond Even with their innovative adaptations, it was evident in the event of an occurrence. that not all farmers are able to respond on their own. Public education through a broad range The vast majority may need the interventions of of channels may include indigenous federal, state and local governments to build suitable knowledge drawn from folk culture to protective infrastructure or to develop specific policies enhance local people’s awareness and that will serve to mitigate the impacts of shocks and confidence and to empower them to act stresses on their livelihoods. A tested approach is to when faced with adversity. Heightened awareness provides a basis for increased develop resilient livelihoods through a greater diversity participation, particularly in promoting of incomes. In addition to diversifying their agricultural community-based early warning systems. practices, they can establish a wider range of income sources, on or off the farm. Farmers interviewed listed Policy options: a broad range of additional occupations that serve as Recognize disaster risk reduction as a key an economic buffer to their incomes, particularly in climate change adaptation strategy. disaster years. These include:

Populate the country with networks of skilled work such as tailoring, weaving, bicycle meteorological, agro-meteorological and repair hydrological stations. local fabrication of farm and non-farm implements Make adequate provision for emergency response during crop failure as a result owning small provision stores of drought or crop damage as a result of engaging in casual labour in nearby urban areas floods. making handicrafts for sale Develop strategies for re-stocking and re- planting to meet food security challenges. collection and sale of fuel wood Explore incentives to help farmers recoup running small eateries losses through insurance schemes and/or trading in agricultural commodities federal government intervention. trading in non-agricultural goods. CHAPTER 7: POLICY SUPPORT FOR AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE 81

increase support for reforestation and afforestation ACTIONS AND POLICY OPTIONS develop improved crop varieties Actions to address priority risks: improve agricultural extension services Government to provide accurate and timely support livestock keeping meteorological forecasting services to rural farmers. weigh the benefits of productivity and adaptability in introducing livestock hybrids Governments, private sector, NGOs/CBOs should promote skills, knowledge and strengthen integrated pest management systems. access to markets. Government, aid agencies and NGOs State and local governments should: to provide micro-finance and credit to encourage development of small businesses encourage agroforestry. in farming communities. Government and private sector to promote The Federal Government and state governments should: adoption of weather index-based insurance to guarantee that farmers recover fully after improve rural transportation disasters. oversee regular vaccination of livestock and cross- Policy options: border disease surveillance

Create specific policy for the development provide potable water for livestock of rural infrastructure, especially roads, to promote a balanced mix of organic manure and create better rural–urban links. inorganic fertilizers. Invest in agricultural resilience research that generates new agro-technologies as means The Federal Government should: to cope with climate variability. improve early warning systems Create safety nets for rural resilience. provide greater support for insurance. Place emphasis on schemes for women and youth. State governments should: Avoid creating a dependence syndrome by adopting approaches that are in line with improve agronomic practices to suit agro- the philosophy of teaching people to fish, ecological zones. rather than providing them with the fish. 7.5 References

Bisong, F.E. 2011. Nigeria Strategic Investment Framework 7.4 Conclusions and (NSIF) for Sustainable Land Management (SLM): Phase 1, Cross River State (2011–2020) Report to National Fadama Recommendations Development Office and Federal Ministry of Agriculture. Abuja, Nigeria: Federal Ministry of Agriculture. Since enabling policy forms the foundation for achieving agricultural resilience, policymakers must BNRCC. 2011. National Adaptation Strategy and Plan consider actions to mitigate the impacts of climate of Action on Climate Change for Nigeria (NASPA-CCN). change in all government policies for the foreseeable Ibadan, Nigeria: Building Nigeria’s Response to Climate future. In addition, they should be willing to provide Change (http://nigeriaclimatechange.org/naspa.pdf). the initial funding necessary to galvanize actions on the part of other stakeholders. The recommendations CAK. 2013. A State-wise Contingent Plan. New Delhi, should be understood as add-ons to the points India: Crop Advisories for Kharif, National Resource discussed in the preceding sections. They are Management Division, Indian Council of Agricultural summarized here to guide policy coherence and Research (www.icar.org.in/files/Agro-advisories_ coordination. Kharif%202013.pdf).

The Federal Government, state governments and the Davies, M., Guenther, B., Leavy, J., Mitchell, T. and private sector should: Tanner, T. 2009. ‘Climate change adaptation, disaster 82 NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK risk reduction and social protection: Complementary JICA 1993. The Study of National Water Resources Master roles in agriculture and rural growth?’ IDS Working Paper Plan Interim Report. Japan International Cooperation 320. Brighton, UK: Institute of Development Studies. Agency. Abuja, Nigeria: Federal Ministry of Water Resources. Government of India. 2012. Providing Information on Forecasted Weather and Agro-Meteorological Advisory Mitchell, J. and Coles, C. (eds). 2011. Markets and Rural Services. New Delhi, India: National information Centre, Poverty: Upgrading in Value Chains. Ottawa, Canada: Federal Ministry of Communication and Information International Development Research Center. Technology. Nino-Zarazua, M., Barrientos, A., Hulme, D. and Hickey, Govind, A. and Stigter, A. 2010. ‘Improving the issuing, S. 2010. Social Protection in sub-Saharan Africa: Will the absorption and use of climate forecast information in Green Shoots Blossom? Manchester, UK: Brooks World agricultural productions: Monocropping’. In: Stigter, Poverty Institute, University of Manchester. K. (ed.) Applied Agrometeorology. Berlin-Heidelberg, Germany: Springer. Vorley, T., Mould, O. and Courtney, R. 2012. My networking is not working! Conceptualizing the Hagen-Zanker, J. and Holmes, R. 2012. Social Protection latent and dysfunctional dimensions of the network in Nigeria. Synthesis Report. London, UK: Overseas paradigm. Economic Geography 88(1): 77–96. Development Institute. Wiesmann, U., Ott, C., Ifejika Speranza, C., Kiteme, B., IAR&T. No date. Ibadan Farmers’ Field Guide on the Müller-Böker, U., Messerli, P. and Zinsstag, J. 2011. ‘A Construction of Micro Check Dam for Water Harvesting human actor model as a conceptual orientation in on Seasonal Streams. Ibadan, Nigeria: Institute of interdisciplinary research for sustainable development’. Agricultural Research and Training. In: Wiesmann, U. and Hurni, H. (eds). Research for Sustainable Development: Foundations, Experiences, and Ibe, A.C. 2013. ‘Between hocus-pocus and divination: Perspectives. Bern, Switzerland: Geographica Bernensia. The need for strategic planning in the Niger Delta’. A Keynote Address at the Workshop on Issues in the Wiggins, S. and Keats, S. 2013. Leaping and Learning: Sustainable Development of the Niger Delta Region: Linking Smallholders to Markets Agriculture for Impact. Challenges to Sustainable Development organized London, UK: Imperial College. by the Nigeria Sustainable Development Solutions Network University of Port Harcourt, 11–13 July 2013.

IFPRI. 2009. Food-Security Risks Must Be Comprehensively Addressed. IFPRI 2008–2009 Annual Report Essay. Washington, DC, USA: International Food Policy Research Institute.

8 Financing for Climate-Resilient Agriculture 86 NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK

8.1 Introduction 8.2 Investment Needs The urgent need to develop innovative financing for Climate-Resilient mechanisms is underscored by the fact that the incidence of food insecurity and poverty is expected Agriculture to peak in sub-Saharan African countries (including While agriculture is vulnerable to the effects of climate Nigeria) in the next 20 years (IFAD, 2011). At the change, it is also a leading source of greenhouse gas same time, the window of opportunity to transform emissions. The necessity of adapting to, and mitigating agricultural systems, promote growth and reduce for, climate change calls for a reconsideration of vulnerability to climate change may close within the current strategies and investment priorities in the next 20 years (FAO, 2013). agriculture sector. Investments that support mitigation and adaptation in agriculture come with additional So far, the level and composition of investment have costs over and beyond what is needed to support not been adequate to stimulate the needed growth in conventional agricultural productivity. Climate change Nigeria. While investments have increased substantially multiplies and alters the challenges of achieving in the agriculture sector, the country still looks to the sustainable agricultural growth. donor community for significant funding. It is unlikely that the donor community will be able to mobilize the The country lacks reliable estimates of the investment needed funds from traditional overseas development needed to achieve climate-resilient agriculture. assistance (ODA), as these resources tend to be Without including the effects of climate change, restricted and more unpredictable in times of crisis. Nigeria’s National Agricultural Investment Plan (2010– This, coupled with the low allocation to agriculture in 2014) estimates an investment need of about US$1.5 the national budget (about 2% in 2013) underscores billion over the five-year period. The Comprehensive the insufficiency of public funding to finance climate- Africa Agriculture Development Program (CAADP) resilient agriculture in Nigeria. calls for the allocation of at least 10% of the national budget to agriculture to achieve a target of 6% annual Effectively implementing agricultural development agricultural growth. The Federal Government has set requires high levels of private investment to a higher growth target of 10% annual agricultural complement public funding, as most actors in the growth in the medium term. To achieve such rapid sector are private parties. Despite recent efforts to growth would require about US$5 billion per annum attract private investors, the potential for private (Alpuerto et al., 2010). However, these estimates do investment in the nation’s ATA is far from being met. not include the additional costs imposed by climate Private investors and banks show little interest in the change. It has been shown that the incremental cost agriculture sector because of the high risks associated for adaptation of agriculture and water resources in with it, such as climatic risks, price risks and market Nigeria will exceed US$3.0 billon per year by 2020 failures. This is compounded by insecurity in various and US$5.5 billion by 2050 (UNFCCC, 2010). Recent parts of the country. Innovative financing is urgently assessments have shown that adaptation costs per needed to generate long-term, adequate and ha in Nigeria could range between US$250 and predictable resources from national sources and to US$1,100. Large-scale irrigation investment costs could leverage private investment. range between US$3,700/ha and US$20,000/ha for newly irrigated land, plus an annual operation and However, there are challenges to financing climate- maintenance cost of about US$30/ha. resilient agriculture in Nigeria. While climate-resilient agriculture addresses the interface between climate Therefore, achieving the CAADP targets would require change and agriculture, funds for agricultural a substantial increase in national budgetary allocations development, climate mitigation and climate and improved investment efficiency in the agriculture adaptation generally come from different sources. sector. It has been shown that better investment This separation of funding streams has contributed to efficiency, through improved budgetary processes, inefficiencies in, and insufficient access to, financing for timely release of funds, greater transparency and climate-resilient agriculture. Innovative mechanisms strengthened accountability of public spending in need to be developed to properly integrate the the sector, can achieve savings of more than US$2.6 sources of finance for both agriculture and climate billion per year while achieving the projected 10% change. These challenges need to be addressed in any growth target. However, the low budgetary allocation efforts to mobilize resources for the sector. to agriculture (2% in Nigeria’s 2013 budget, less than CHAPTER 8: FINANCING FOR CLIMATE-RESILIENT AGRICULTURE 87 the 2012 allocation) indicates a greater challenge of the external funds specifically supporting climate in meeting the stated targets from public sources change and agriculture that Nigeria could combine to (Alpuerto et al., 2010). support climate-resilient agriculture. Besides adaptation, it is critically important to reduce External funds to support emissions to avoid future and larger costs of climate change by incorporating low emissions considerations agriculture into agricultural investment plans. Nigeria can reduce Official development assistance:This will continue its emissions significantly in the agriculture and to be a critical source of external finance. In 2011, forestry sectors through afforestation, agroforestry, Nigeria received about US$1.8 billion as net ODA. The forest protection and better agricultural and land use proportion of this that goes to agriculture is rather practices. This would require an annual investment of small. In 2009, ODA to agriculture stood at about at least US$2 billion (UNFCCC, 2010). US$40 million, declining from an all-time high of about However, accelerating agricultural growth also requires US$120 million. By 2012, the value has risen above investments in the non-agriculture sectors. Non- US$1 billion. The dwindling financial fortunes of donor agricultural investment can have a strong impact countries in the face of the current global financial and on agriculture by providing improved public goods, economic crises are fast rendering this an unreliable such as roads and other infrastructure, education and source of financing for agriculture in Nigeria. health. Such investments raise productivity for both Foreign direct investment: Inflows of foreign direct physical and human capital in the broad economy, investment (FDI) into Nigeria have grown substantially including the rural and agricultural economy. This calls in the last decade, from about US$1.14 billion in 2001 for a more integrated approach to development in the to about US$11 billion in 2009 (UNCTAD, 2011). This country. makes Nigeria the largest recipient of FDI in Africa and the 19th greatest recipient of FDI in the world. China is 8.3 External Sources of becoming one of Nigeria’s most important sources of FDI as China seeks to expand its trade relations with Funding for Climate- Africa. China’s direct investment in Nigeria has grown from US$3 billion in 2003 to over US$7 billion in 2012. Resilient Agriculture In 2012, FDI stock in Nigeria as a percentage of GDP increased to 27.6%, while FDI flows as a percentage of There are several external funding sources for gross fixed capital formation were almost 24% (Ajuwon climate-resilient agriculture in Nigeria. These funds and Ogwumike, 2013). This shows the important role are mostly from bilateral and multilateral sources and played by FDI in Nigeria’s development. are compartmentalized by sector: climate change adaptation, mitigation, agricultural development, However, agriculture has been one of the least reducing deforestation and forest degradation attractive sectors for FDI in Nigeria. From 1970 to (REDD), etc. To fully take advantage of these funds, 2001 the sector comprised only 1.7% of total FDI it is important to develop an integrated funding (Ajuwon and Ogwumike, 2013). The visible increase mechanism that will go beyond using climate funds in FDI inflow into agriculture (about US$8 billion in to influence agricultural investments, to actually the past year) is a result of the Federal Government’s integrating some of the public sources of climate commitment to creating a suitable enabling finance (for mitigation and adaptation) with those environment to support investments. For instance, supporting agricultural development or food security the Federal Government has provided investment that could also support climate-resilient agriculture. guarantees, which has boosted the confidence of foreign investors; refocused and changed the Effectively supporting climate-resilient agricultural patterns of investments in agriculture by laying initiatives requires a strong coordination of greater emphasis on not only increasing volumes of investments across sectors, with national government agricultural produce but also extending the value actors working across ministries. In addition to chain via investment in agricultural machinery, storage investments targeting climate change and agriculture, and processing plants. funds targeting other natural resources like water, forestry and biodiversity conservation also need to Private investments: Although public investment be incorporated into planning and implementing is necessary to build a favourable environment and climate-resilient agriculture. Listed below are some provide the required infrastructure, a large proportion 88 NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK of the required total investment should be made by active in sub-Saharan Africa, including Germany’s private actors. Private investment is therefore central International Climate Initiative (ICI), Norway’s to agricultural development in Nigeria. Traditional International Climate and Forest Initiative, Japan’s ODA through public-driven projects has shown Africa Adaptation Program and the UK’s International limited capacity to foster private investments, because Climate Fund. The US$96.35 million approved by implementation is often too rigid, and because the ICI for 32 projects represents the largest source projects are insufficiently market-driven and result- of bilateral funding, but the amount disbursed based. The Federal Government’s new policy on is unknown. The multilateral funds are largely agriculture recognizes this and lays emphasis on the administered through a variety of mechanisms, which need to create an environment favourable to private include those listed below. investment and to develop catalytic tools that will Funds under the UNFCCC: There are several funds provide incentives while alleviating the constraints under the UNFCCC. These include funds under the to private investments. The Federal Government Global Environment Facility (GEF), such as the GEF has consequently attracted over US$8 billion worth Trust Fund, the Least Developed Country Fund (LDCF), of private sector investment commitments to the Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF), and the agriculture in the past year. With proper incentives Adaptation Fund. The GEF Trust Fund was expected to and financing mechanisms, there is huge potential for provide about US$2 billion for mitigation projects from increased private sector investment in climate-resilient 2010 to 2014 with agriculture and sustainable land use agriculture in Nigeria. represented in one of the six objectives of the funding Development banks and financial institutions: strategy. The LDCF and SCCF have thus far committed Financial institutions are playing an important role in over US$350 million during 2002–2010. The reviving agriculture. These institutions are providing Adaptation Fund has disbursed about US$400 million thus far. About 40% of the resources committed grants and concessional loans to the Federal under the LDCF have been targeted at food and Government, providing micro-credit to farmers and agriculture, and nearly all the projects funded by the joint ventures between banks and state governments Adaptation Fund have components that address the to boost agricultural production. For instance, in the agriculture sector. Agriculture and food security are past two years, the Federal Government has secured likely to continue to be a primary focus of any new or is in the process of securing about US$4.0 billion for climate funding streams. Of the 20 approved national the Agricultural Transformation Agenda from the World projects amounting to over US$68 million, about US$8 Bank, the African Development Bank, UK Department million was allocated to an agriculture project, while for International Development, International Finance another US$8 million was allocated to watershed Corporation, United States Agency for International management. Nigeria has no projects approved under Development, United Nations Development the Adaptation Fund. Programme, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. The Africa Agriculture Trade and Investment Fund Green Climate Fund: In 2009, developed countries administered by the German development bank KfW committed to jointly mobilizing up to US$100 billion and Deutsche Bank provides loans, guarantees and, to a year by 2020 to support climate change actions in a limited extent, equity to experienced private sector developing countries. The Green Climate Fund (GCF) enterprises and farmers located in Africa. It encourages has been established as the financial mechanism the engagement of private investors to look for more to implement this commitment. Its design is at an ‘risky’ investment opportunities. These development advanced stage and some countries have pledged institutions are an important source of funding. resources for activities that will prepare developing However, it is important that the country develops a countries to be able to access the GCF when it pipeline of viable and bankable projects that can be becomes operational. Some of these activities will financed by these institutions through both public and establish national designated authorities by setting private sectors. basic criteria for accreditation, appropriate safeguards and fiduciary standards. Nigeria needs to prepare Funds for climate change itself for early participation in the activities of the GCF by setting up and empowering an appropriate Bilateral and multilateral funds: The bulk of designated national authority (this role is presently climate finance comes from bilateral sources through played by the Special Climate Change Directorate of ODA and from multilateral climate change funds and the Federal Ministry of Environment) and preparing a development agencies. Fifteen multilateral funds are pipeline of climate-resilient agricultural programmes CHAPTER 8: FINANCING FOR CLIMATE-RESILIENT AGRICULTURE 89 and projects for funding once the Fund becomes Figure 8.1 Top 10 recipients of climate finance operational.

Climate Investment Fund: This consists of 500 about US$6.4 billion provided by donors to address 400 mitigation and adaptation in developing countries. Amount approved (US$ millions) 300 It includes the Clean Technology Fund and the Strategic Climate Fund. The Clean Technology Fund 200 has approved a total of US$401 million for five projects, 100 87% of which are in South Africa. Three additional 0 Mali programmes are funded under the Strategic Climate DRC Niger Kenya Ghana Ethiopia

Fund: the Pilot Programme on Climate Resilience, Tanzania South Africa the Forest Investment Partnership, and the Scaling- Burkina Faso Mozambique up Renewable Energy Programme. The Climate Source: Nakhooda et al., 2011 Investment Fund is administered by the multilateral development banks to support mitigation and adaptation in developing countries. Many of the raise resources to finance green investments in Africa, projects submitted to the Pilot Programme for including those in agriculture. The World Bank has Climate Resilience (PPCR) and the Forest Investment issued approximately US$4 billion in Green Bonds Programme include agricultural and rural resilience through 59 transactions and 17 currencies to support components. While Nigeria is implementing a green initiatives in developing countries including project under the Clean Technology Fund, it has no Nigeria. Nigeria must take advantage of these projects funded under the PPCR or Forest Investment resources. Programme. The carbon market: Under the regulated carbon Nationally appropriate mitigation activities: markets (part of the UNFCCC market mechanism), In 2009, developing countries pledged to undertake most investments go to mitigation in the energy voluntary actions to reduce their emissions, sector through the offset market. The projected contingent on support from developed countries. demand for land-based agricultural offsets is bleak. Nationally appropriate mitigation activities (NAMAs) Land use sequestration projects in developing have been institutionalized in the UNFCCC process countries have been largely omitted because of the and several countries have submitted projects for relative difficulty in meeting CDM standards and the funding in several sectors. Considering the potential ban by the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading of agriculture to reduce emissions, it is imperative that Scheme. However, the voluntary carbon markets offer Nigeria prepares and submits NAMA programmes opportunities for land use sequestration projects. In and projects in the agriculture sector. Nigeria 2010 the total voluntary carbon market was valued has performed poorly in terms of access to these at US$424 million worldwide, of which “US$13 multilateral and bilateral climate funds. For instance, million was related to agricultural soil management, Nigeria has thus far received only about US$45.4 US$8.5 million for livestock projects, US$25 million for million for both mitigation and adaptation. Compare afforestation and reforestation projects, and US$123 this with Morocco, which has received about US$366 million was attributed to REDD, which includes the use million, Niger with US$115 million and Mexico with of agroforestry practices” (Peters-Stanley et al., 2011; US$743 million. Figure 8.1 shows the top 10 recipient Shames et al., 2012). countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Although the global carbon market has essentially Multilateral development banks: The African collapsed, there is every indication that, as we Development Bank and the World Bank have set approach a binding global climate change agreement aside resources to address climate change issues as in 2015 to curb emissions, the market will pick part of their core business operations. The Climate up again. Virtually every permutation to mobilize Change Action Plan of the African Development Bank long-term finance for climate action is anchored in intends to invest about US$10 billion of its resources the carbon market. Nigeria can take advantage of on activities related to mitigation and adaptation this source of funding by taking action to improve between 2011 and 2014. Nigeria could benefit from the overall conditions for carbon market projects this financing opportunity. In August 2013, the African in Nigeria. Such action could include accelerating Development Bank launched its third Green Bond to negotiations with the European Union regarding a 90 NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK bilateral deal on eligibility of credits from Nigerian agricultural investment in support of climate- projects for the EU Emissions Trading Scheme resilient agriculture. At the national level, Nigeria eligibility, and furthering discussions with Japan about could use climate finance to implement cross-sector its bilateral offset credit scheme, among others. policy integration. At the landscape scale, climate funds could be coordinated with other co-located It would also be beneficial to enhance the capacity rural development activities and to support multi- of the designated national authority in the Ministry stakeholder, landscape planning exercises, extension of Environment so it can create new methodologies and rural credit programmes. that allow climate-resilient agricultural practices to benefit from the compliance and voluntary Beyond using climate funds to influence agricultural carbon market. It should also calculate and publicize investments, opportunity exists to integrate some of baselines and emission factors, host a website to the public sources of climate finance (for mitigation inform stakeholders about relevant carbon market and adaptation) with those supporting agricultural developments and allow project documents to be development or food security into a single mechanism uploaded online, and develop expertise in sector that could flexibly support climate-resilient agriculture. credit opportunities. There are a number of external Nigeria is developing a climate finance fund through development partner initiatives that Nigeria should a bill that seeks to create the National Climate Change explore to fund these activities, including the Commission, which, as of March 2015, was inching African Carbon Support Programme of the African towards renewed passage in the National Assembly. Development Bank and the Climate Initiative for This is an opportunity to create a window in the Development of the World Bank. proposed climate finance fund that could specifically finance agricultural activities. Private investors and philanthropic funding: Private investments in climate change have largely However, the existing climate finance instruments been through the CDM and focused on mitigation. listed in the preceding sections have inherent This is because the private sector is driven by challenges that need to be addressed. Some of these profit. Mitigation projects have clear profits while are inherent in the funds themselves and others adaptation is usually considered as a public good are particular to Nigeria’s ability to access them. and is not rent-seeking. As in every other investment, These challenges present major barriers to creating the Federal Government will need to create an appropriate and efficient financing structures for enabling environment to attract private investors climate-resilient agriculture in Nigeria. Some of these into the climate change space. At the same time, challenges (as identified by Shames et al., 2012) there are untold benefits from private sector include: investments in adaptation. Efforts can and should be made to package adaptation projects in ways that Uncertainty in international public funding will attract private investors. A growing cohort of sources: Most of the external funds discussed private foundations and international NGOs, such as above are generated through voluntary pledges. This Rockefeller, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, CARE, creates uncertainty in the level of funding available Oxfam and Conservation International are joining with for country-level programming. Also, there are often national NGOs and farmers’ organizations to invest substantial differences between the funds pledged in climate-resilient agriculture. Nigeria can benefit and the level of disbursement. Consequently it is from these partnerships by providing a coordination difficult to clearly track funding levels for climate mechanism to bring coherence to these varied change and agricultural development by international investments. donors. An important consequence of this uncertainty of funding levels is that countries are not able to Opportunities and constraints implement long-term programmes to build the institutional capacity required across sectors to associated with external support large-scale transitions to climate-resilient resources agriculture. Climate finance for mitigation and adaptation Modest scale of climate finance relative to directed towards agriculture will remain a small overall agricultural investment finance:Private fraction of total investments in agriculture, and investment in agricultural supply chains and land therefore the effectiveness of these climate funds uses dwarfs the current climate finance directed will rely on their ability to strategically leverage towards agriculture. Agricultural climate funds have CHAPTER 8: FINANCING FOR CLIMATE-RESILIENT AGRICULTURE 91 the potential to grow and encourage low-emissions/ high-resilience land use activities. The extent to which 8.4 Mobilizing this happens will be decided through national and international policy debates, which are likely to take National Resources place over the next few years. to Support Climate- Fragmentation of climate finance: Climate finance Resilient Agriculture streams for adaptation and mitigation have been treated separately within the UNFCCC negotiations Gaining access to climate finance is essential for and, consequently, it has been difficult to blend these meeting Nigeria’s goals of both adapting to and funds strategically in a single project or programme. mitigating climate change through climate-resilient While such separation may make sense for many agriculture. In light of the limitations associated sectors, it is not the case within the land use sector with external funds, this section proposes criteria – and for agriculture in particular – because the for assessing innovation in financing climate- interventions that produce mitigation benefits are resilient agriculture. Due to the emphasis on often identical to those required for adaptation. innovative sources, this discussion omits any overt reference to the Ecological Fund, which is Loss of synergies across landscapes: Climate- an obvious, but yet to be effectively exploited, resilient agriculture necessarily includes investment source of funds for new initiatives in agricultural across the landscape to maintain healthy watersheds production including climate-resilient agriculture and ecosystem services and to supply the full schemes. Instead, it explores the opportunities range of food, fibre, raw materials and bio-energy that exist for Nigeria to mobilize national resources products. One of the key pillars of the climate-resilient through innovative sources and tools. These framework, as introduced by the FAO is “adopting an opportunities occur in the ability to attract new ecosystem approach, working at landscape scale and resources rather than traditional ODA, to catalyse ensuring inter-sector coordination and cooperation” private investment through innovative tools, (FAO, 2010). A landscape approach includes a spatial and the ways in which these tools promote new understanding of land uses and their interactions, approaches to scaling up innovative financing as well as a process for coordination that reflects the mechanisms. institutional diversity of stakeholders. However, with individual climate or agriculture objectives supported by various funds, it is difficult to develop these ACTION: EXPAND THE FUND FOR landscape synergies. AGRICULTURAL FINANCING IN NIGERIA National public investment remains in sector It is imperative to address the current silos: National policy coherence on agriculture inadequate and fragmented flow of investment and climate change will be critical to the success of resources for climate change and agricultural climate-resilient agriculture. Unfortunately, at the development. It is important to strengthen FAFIN and decentralize it at state and national level, conventional sector structures often regional levels to mobilize resources from hinder integrated projects and programmes. diverse public, private and donor financial resources. There should be an Agricultural Difficulties in access: Several of the international Resilience Fund to complement the Fund for funds have access modes that have proven difficult. Agricultural Financing in Nigeria and serve For instance, only five African countries have been as a dedicated funding vehicle to enable accredited to access the Adaptation Fund. The limited much greater investment in climate-resilient access is also partly explained by the fact that many agriculture. The Fund should be able to engage in microfinance, carbon finance, agricultural of these funds are not aligned with Africa’s priorities subsidies, impact investments and foreign and specificities. While the CDM plays a major role direct investment. The Fund should also be in generating resources relating to emissions, those tasked to compile information and knowledge emanating from agriculture (the largest source of on sources and structures of finance, articulate Africa’s emissions) are excluded. The GEF Trust Fund problems and solutions at the regional and national levels, coordinate public–private largely finances mitigation initiatives since these easily partnerships, track trends on flows/economic meet the eligibility of global benefits, while adaptation valuation of production and mobilize benefits are deemed to be largely local, even though it innovative sources of finance. is Africa’s priority. 92 NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK

Mobilizing innovative securitization of remittance flows by financial resources for the Agricultural institutions (i.e., mobilizing private sector financing for banks) and the mobilization of Resilience Fund resources for development through diaspora bonds, which corresponds to mobilizing new Criteria for assessing innovative finances: financing for governments. Considering the inadequacy of ODA and national budgetary resources to meet the demands for Import savings: Nigeria currently spends climate-resilient agriculture, it is imperative to develop about US$11 billion on food imports. Shifting a fraction (say 20%) of the total spend on food innovative resources that will complement these imports could generate substantial resources to traditional sources and bridge the gap between support climate-resilient agriculture. available and required investment resources. Innovative tools for the use of public resources are also needed to catalyse private investment and Guarantee funds for bank credit: Agricultural alleviate constraints on its development, using delivery lending in Nigeria accounts for less than 2% of formal mechanisms that are more effective than traditional lending. It has been on the decline since 2006 due ones. to the perceived high risk by banks, because of a limited understanding and lack of confidence in the As noted by the report of the Task Force on Innovative sector. The idea of reducing banking risk by granting Financing for Agriculture, Food Security and Nutrition a partial guarantee to banks, designed to cover a (2012), innovative sources of finance should satisfy the portion of the risk without relieving the banks from following criteria: predictability, complementarity to their credit responsibility, has been tried and launched donor funding, contributor acceptability, feasibility, at different occasions in the agricultural credit sector anticipated amounts of resources, low cost of resource in Nigeria. First, the Federal Government’s Agricultural mobilization, expected impact, and effective fund Credit Guarantee Scheme Fund, administered by the management. Central Bank of Nigeria, guarantees up to 75% of all loans granted by commercial banks for agricultural ACTION: EXPLORE POTENTIAL production and processing. Second, the Federal MECHANISMS TO ATTRACT NEW Government has launched the Nigerian Incentive- RESOURCES TO THE AGRICULTURAL based Risk Sharing for Agricultural Lending, a risk- RESILIENCE FUND sharing mechanism that aims to leverage US$300 National taxes: Nigeria has options to million of public funds to attract US$3 billion of raise resources through various innovative private financing from Nigerian commercial banks into tax schemes, for instance a tax on financial agriculture. When fully operational, this scheme will transactions. A tax on fertilizers has been build confidence in the credit sector. proposed by New Partnership for Africa’s Development as a means to develop fertilizer consumption in Africa through smart subsidies. ACTION: INNOVATIVE MECHANISMS TO Voluntary contributions: Firms and major CATALYSE PRIVATE SECTOR INVESTMENTS corporations in and outside Nigeria could Several tools exist to make investment in be encouraged to contribute to mobilizing agriculture and food value chains more resources for agriculture. Some of the proceeds attractive to the private sector and to from lotteries can also be considered (e.g., part reduce the high level of risk associated with of the lottery proceeds in Belgium is already agricultural investments. Most of these tools dedicated to finance food security projects in are already being used in developed countries developing countries). and have proven their efficiency for financing Migrants’ remittances: These represent agriculture. They can however, be considered considerable financial flows from developed as innovations to be adapted and developed countries into Nigeria. Remittances can be in Nigeria. Some of the most promising considered as both a new source of financing mechanisms that deserve further exploration and existing private capital that may be include: channelled into agriculture. In the first case, Risk management tools: Widespread financial instruments that mobilize this type availability of risk management tools makes of new resources for development include the it easier for financiers to manage the risks

CONTINUED CONTINUED CHAPTER 8: FINANCING FOR CLIMATE-RESILIENT AGRICULTURE 93

Public–private partnerships: There are several inherent in agricultural finance, and will thus innovative ways to stimulate private sector investment catalyse private sector funding for agriculture. in rural infrastructure. One is entirely private, although Agriculture financiers are exposed to several risks, including price volatility resulting government policies have to permit the mechanism. in revenue that is too low to permit loan For instance, an entrepreneur can use off-take contracts reimbursement, crop loss due to adverse with foreign buyers (e.g., for fruits and vegetables with weather, obstacles preventing the delivery of a supermarket chain) to obtain long-term investment the crop to the buyer, etc. finance from local pension funds that permit the Market-based weather risk management construction of the infrastructure needed to produce, schemes: Traditional crop insurance process and transport the fruits and vegetables (this schemes, based on individual yields has been done, for example, in Zambia). Others require and field inspections, can be very costly a more active role from the Federal Government in the to administer in Nigeria. Market-based form of public–private partnerships. weather risk management can overcome some of the problems associated with Through public–private partnerships governments traditional insurance schemes. These are can leverage funds from the private sector to invest based on weather indices, such as rainfall and temperature, rather than actual farm in agricultural infrastructure or services benefitting losses. They can be used to protect against small-scale farmers. The private investor, usually an catastrophic risks, or to protect against agribusiness, is compensated either by subsidy or a normal, day-to-day operational risks. The public financial participation in the investment or by a Nigerian Agricultural Bank can bundle long-term lease agreement or a build–operate–transfer weather risk management with its loan scheme for agricultural infrastructure, such as irrigation packages. For example, loans are forgiven if there is a drought, and the bank claims its schemes or storage facilities. money back from an insurance company, or they can insist that lenders take out weather insurance with the eventual claims payable to ACTION: ENHANCING DOMESTIC the bank, or they can insure their agricultural ABSORPTIVE CAPACITY loan portfolio against weather-related default risk. Generating new and innovative resources is one thing; creating the capacity to absorb the finances Weather index-based insurance: This is another. Due to the long history of neglect of compensates the subscriber for production the agriculture sector, there is a capacity deficit loss when a reference index, for instance in the country to readily absorb resources at a rainfall level, is not reached. This mechanism large scale. There are a number of actions that is being piloted in a number of countries the Federal Government can take to improve the (Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi and Tanzania) to country’s capacity to absorb additional resources, reduce agricultural risk, where such risk is a which will need to be taken forward concurrently severe constraint to intensification and food with the establishment of the Agricultural security. Implementing this in Nigeria would Resilience Fund to maximize its effectiveness. require a considerable improvement in the data collection and analysis capability of the Creating effective national enabling Nigeria Meteorological Agency and other environments involves the development of related agencies. comprehensive, coherent policies, as well as a stable policy environment and well-functioning Agricultural reinsurance schemes: This institutions (IIGCC, 2011); and the availability involves the creation of an agricultural of bankable, climate-resilient investment reinsurance scheme to cover natural risks opportunities in the agriculture sector. It also and enhance the operating capacity of entails removing the barriers to effective scaling- the insurance companies. The reinsured up of private investment in climate-resilient risks could prioritize those that affect agriculture. the productive capacity of the farmers. Reinsurance funds can be public or private. In order to address the absorptive capacity The risk coverage could be at the level of challenges, the Federal Government needs to individual subscribers or at the national mainstream climate finance and planning into level. The EU has established its Global Index national plans and strategies. This primarily Insurance Facility to create an index insurance involves, among other actions: system for African, Caribbean and Pacific Establishment of a participatory planning countries. Nigeria can request to be a part of process that produces concrete and clear this scheme. CONTINUED 94 NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK

action plans on climate-related investments for the Fund to provide assistance to (as through the development of this project implementing agents in areas of document). proposal preparation, implementation, and compliance with accounting and reporting Identification of appropriate institutional requirements. arrangements to manage and coordinate financial vehicles and avoid inefficiency and overlaps. This might include reinforcement of the existing inter-ministerial mechanism on climate change, whose members are drawn from all relevant line ministries, businesses 8.5 Conclusions and academia. Little is known or understood about the flow of climate financing into Transforming Nigeria’s agriculture to be climate- and within Nigeria, especially flows from resilient is a huge task and will require a large private sources. More research is required investment over at least the next 20 years. The to map, quantify and track the flows of climate financing and enable policymakers main issue at present is that funding streams are to develop appropriate mechanisms to scale mostly divided by sector, with funds for adaptation, up interventions where necessary and to mitigation, agricultural development and food security address gaps where they exist. generally coming from different sources. This leads The Federal Government could take this to inefficiencies and makes it more difficult to access opportunity to prioritize climate change sufficient funds. by creating line items in the budget. In the context of national expenditure frameworks, At the moment, a large proportion of the available the Federal Government could create a finance comes from public sources, but this is not specific code within the integrated financial a sustainable solution and private finance must be management system to allow climate change increased. This will require clear regulatory frameworks budgets to be tracked and reported. At and it will be necessary to de-risk the climate finance present, the absence of such codes inhibits sector to increase investor confidence. The best monitoring of climate change-related expenditures, which is important both for solution is to use public funding as a catalyst to attract effective internal government processes as the required private sources. well as for reporting to the UNFCCC. The large scale of resources required calls for Working with development partners innovation in identifying sources of funds as well to harmonize funding with priority as new mechanisms to catalyse private sector interventions is another action area for the investments. At the same time, funds will need to Federal Government. This could include standardizing the financial requirements be used as efficiently and synergistically as possible. and fiscal calendars of the Federal Considering the overlapping and interrelated Government and development partners investments required to meet the multiple objectives according to the principles of Nigeria’s of climate-resilient agriculture, the financing systems Joint Assistance Strategy. In developing that support these objectives should also be linked the modalities for providing resources to closely. the Agricultural Resilience Fund, it will be necessary to establish the processes by Some success has been achieved in Nigeria in using which development agency and government domestic policy mechanisms to leverage public funds. resources (as appropriate) are provided to the Fund through a joint financing agreement. This gives cause for optimism that similar systems may be evolved to lower the risks – either real or perceived Furthermore, measures could be taken – and thereby attract private sources into agricultural by the Federal Government to enhance resilience financing. ongoing efforts to improve the operational and absorptive capacity of trust funds Table 8.1 reviews existing international financing with a focus on the Agricultural Resilience mechanisms in support of climate-resilient agriculture Fund. With the support of the Federal Ministry of Finance, creating strong financial in Nigeria. The total amount approved for adaptation management capabilities within the Fund to climate change projects is US$934.22 million in could improve disbursement and project Africa, whereas the amount disbursed to date is implementation. It would also be desirable US$217 million.1

CONTINUED 1 See: www.climatefundsupdate.org/data CHAPTER 8: FINANCING FOR CLIMATE-RESILIENT AGRICULTURE 95

Table 8.1 Existing international financing mechanisms in support of climate-resilient agriculture in Nigeria

FINANCIAL OPERATED BY SCOPE ELIGIBILITY AMOUNT AMOUNT INSTRUMENTS CRITERIA APPROVED FOR DISBURSED ADAPTATION (US$ PROJECTS IN MILLION) AFRICA (US$ MILLION) LDCF The GEF and World The Fund supports All LDCs 333.69 87.02 Bank as Trustee and finances National Adaptation Programmes of Actions in LDCs GEF Trust Fund The GEF and World The fund aims to Countries than 10.63 10.63 (GEF 4)2 Bank as Trustee support developing meet eligibility countries to be criteria resilient by promoting established the mainstreaming of by COP are adaptation measures in eligible for national development United Nations programmes and Development strategies. Programme (UNDP) technical assistance and to borrow from the World Bank SCCF The GEF and World Support adaptation to All non-Annex 58.01 39.68 Bank as Trustee climate change and 1 countries technology transfer projects. It covers all the vulnerable sectors of a country: water, agriculture, forest, infrastructure, etc. Millennium UNDP and Financial support In Africa: 11 11 Development the Spanish for projects or Angola, Goals (MDG) Government programmes with Cape Verde, achievement impact on MDG 7 Democratic goals (Ensure Environmental Republic Sustainability). of Congo, Special focus on Equatorial natural resources and Guinea, ecosystems. Ethiopia, Guinea Bissau, Mauritania, Mozambique, Namibia, São Tomé & Principe, Senegal and South Africa 96 NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK

FINANCIAL OPERATED BY SCOPE ELIGIBILITY AMOUNT AMOUNT INSTRUMENTS CRITERIA APPROVED FOR DISBURSED ADAPTATION (US$ PROJECTS IN MILLION) AFRICA (US$ MILLION) Adaptation The World Bank as Projects and Part of the 53.73 17.33 Fund Trustee programmes to improve Kyoto Protocol climate resilience and highly to most vulnerable vulnerable countries: to climate (i) improving water change (coastal management, countries, small agriculture, island countries, infrastructure etc.) (ii) capacity building for preventive measures planning (iii) establishment of regional and national centres for quick response to extreme events. Germany’s The German Working for the most Any project that 18.48 0 International Federal Ministry of vulnerable countries to meet priority Climate the Environment, increase their capacity areas Initiative Nature Conservation to adapt to climate and Nuclear Safety change and develop their climate change adaptation strategies. Global Climate The European Priority on adaptation LDCs or 73.92 46.51 Change Alliance Commission programmes and Small Islands (GCCA) EuropeAid projects especially on Development agriculture, food safety, States forests and natural resources, water and waste. The GCCA also finances the elaboration of adaptation plans in vulnerable countries other than LDCs and integrates them into poverty reduction strategies. Japan’s fast- Japanese Ministry of Japan pledged US$15 Any developing 220.94 0 track finance Finance billion ($11 billion for country with public finance and bilateral S4 billion for private relations with finance) to support Japan developing countries to cope with climate change. Almost 10% of the money spent has been for adaptation to climate change. CHAPTER 8: FINANCING FOR CLIMATE-RESILIENT AGRICULTURE 97

FINANCIAL OPERATED BY SCOPE ELIGIBILITY AMOUNT AMOUNT INSTRUMENTS CRITERIA APPROVED FOR DISBURSED ADAPTATION (US$ PROJECTS IN MILLION) AFRICA (US$ MILLION) PPCR World Bank is the Programme of the Some pilot 154.6 4.48 Trustee and African Climate Investment countries have Development Bank, Fund to support been selected Asian Development countries to integrate on basis of Bank, Inter-American climate resilience as part expression Development Bank of the development of interests. and European Bank strategies. PPCR These are all for Reconstruction builds on NAPAs and LDCs (in Africa: and Development other development Mozambique, are implementing programmes. Niger and agencies. Zambia). TOTAL 934 934 216

2 The adaptation work of GEF 5 is financed through the LDCF and SCCF

Nakhooda, S., Caravani, A., Bird, N. and Schalatek, L. 8.6 References 2011. ‘Climate finance in sub-Saharan Africa’. Climate Finance policy brief. Washington, DC, USA: Heinrich Ajuwon, O. and Ogwumike, F.O. 2013. Uncertainty and Böll Foundation North America; London, UK: Overseas Foreign Direct Investment: A case of agriculture in Development Institute. Nigeria. Mediterranean Journal of Sciences 4(1): 155–165. Peters-Stanley, M., Hamilton, K., Marcello, T. and Sjardin, Alpuerto, V., Diao, X., Salau, S. and Nwafor, M. 2010. M. 2011. State of the Voluntary Carbon Markets 2011. ‘Agricultural investment for growth and poverty Washington, DC, and New York, USA: Ecosystem reduction in Nigeria’. Nigeria Strategy Support Marketplace and Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Programme Brief No. 13. Washington, DC, USA: International Food Policy Research Institute. Shames, S., Friedman, R. and Havemann, T. 2012. ‘Coordinating finance for climate smart agriculture’. FAO. 2010. “Climate-resilient” Agriculture: Policies, Ecoagriculture Discussion Paper No.9. Washington, DC, Practices and Financing for Food Security, Adaptation USA: Ecoagriculture Partners. and Mitigation. Rome, Italy: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. UNCTAD. 2011. World Investment Report. Geneva, Switzerland: United Nations Conference on Trade and FAO. 2013. Climate-resilient Agriculture – Source Book. Development. Rome, Italy: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. UNFCCC. 2010. Synthesis Report on the National Economic, Environment and Development Study (NEEDS) IFAD. 2011. Innovations in Financing Food Security. for Climate Change Project. Bonn, Germany: United Rome, Italy: International Fund for Agricultural Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Development.

9 Monitoring and Evaluation 100 NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK

processes. Failure to undertake this planning at 9.1 Introduction the initial stage of the project cycle will make M&E ineffectual down the line as the project develops. Delivering the planned transformation to climate- resilient agriculture in Nigeria will require effective Furthermore, effective M&E needs the involvement of monitoring and evaluation (M&E). This chapter key stakeholders, and these need to be identified early outlines the key parameters, which include baseline on. A combination of a top-down analytical approach assessments, indicators for assessing the impacts and a bottom-up approach featuring community of interventions, and capacity requirements. It also involvement/engagement is strongly recommended presents several activities, which show how different by all the key international institutions advocating organizations use M&E frameworks to support the climate-resilient agriculture. In the Nigerian context, transition to climate-resilient agriculture. the complexity and diversity of the six geo-political regions would certainly mandate a strong emphasis 9.2 M&E Purpose and on participatory M&E. The challenge here is how to integrate participatory and non-participatory Scope monitoring, given the diverse range of stakeholders. A farmer and a Federal Government minister An additional challenge will be to clearly define the will have very different priorities for M&E and information needs and roles of stakeholders in the thus, the three components of climate-resilient M&E process at the onset. agriculture – food security and production, adaptation, and mitigation – will need to be considered differently depending on the context. 9.3 Spatial and It is also important to remember the difference Temporal Scales between M&E. While monitoring measures aspects of project implementation and aims to improve In designing the M&E framework for the FMARD, four the project’s design and function along the way, key biophysical parameters have been prioritized: evaluation studies the outcomes of the project (e.g., improvements in food production, uptake of new Agricultural productivity, including livestock and agro-technologies, changes in farmers’ income, fisheries cost-effectiveness, etc.) with the aim of informing the Soil fertility, including soil water holding capacity, design of future programmes. nutrient status, soil pH status

Performing M&E in any context is challenging and Preventing soil loss complex. It is about identifying and measuring the Vegetation (greenness) index. drivers of success just as much as understanding the causes of failure. Effective M&E incurs costs, and M&E for these parameters should be undertaken at these need to be identified upfront, budgeted for the national scale as this will supply more robust data. and ring-fenced for this purpose, so that they are In the short term, the national level will be the most not lost through oversight (or over-spending) as the realistic spatial scale for the FMARD, with graduations programme/policy is implemented. The uncertainty further down the spatial scale over time. Thus, in the of the likely effects of climate change on agriculture medium term, M&E can be undertaken at the national adds a further challenge. and state levels and, in the longer term, at the national, It is also vital that the subject of M&E has a schedule state and local government levels. of pre-agreed deliverables and outcomes, which The recommended spatial and temporal scales for must be specific and measurable. In this case, these M&E are: are the policies, programmes, projects and activities set out in the ACARN framework. Assessment of Short term: 1–3 years (national level) the outcomes within this framework will highlight Medium term: 3–5 years (national and state levels) economic, environmental and social impacts. The Long term: 5–15 years (national, state and local schedule for monitoring and evaluation also needs government levels). to be identified and planned right at the beginning of the project cycle, and M&E needs to be integrated These timeframes are in line with the into the full project cycle through regular planning recommendations of the NASPA-CCN report. CHAPTER 9: MONITORING AND EVALUATION 101

frameworks for the establishment of indicators for 9.4 Baseline assessing the impact of interventions in delivering climate-resilient agriculture. The recommendations Assessments highlighted in Table 9.3 have been adapted from the 1 The M&E framework will encompass direct and CARE framework, taking the Nigerian scenario into indirect observations that will be used to establish consideration. a baseline database. This, in turn, will be used to assess the outcomes of interventions (i.e., the policies, programmes and projects) proposed by the ACARN. 9.6 Type and This will include setting targets and benchmarks for Frequency of M&E outcomes. The type and frequency of M&E will depend on a The baseline data and framework are detailed in Tables number of variables, such as institutional capacity, 9.1 and 9.2. levels of funding and pressure from funders/donor agencies, etc. However, the key issue is to focus on 9.5 Indicators for intermediate outcomes where the links between interventions, policies and programmes and impact Assessing Impact are clear. This is because there are often many factors influencing an outcome, and so attributing change There are a number of internationally recommended to a particular intervention becomes impossible. Even with a relatively simple intervention such as agricultural extension (where research findings are Table 9.1 Biophysical promoted to improve production practices) or small grants to support experimentation, it is notoriously parameters prioritized for the difficult to measure impact on such indicators as ACARN M&E productivity yields and net farming incomes. It is therefore recommended that, rather than targeting BIOPHYSICAL PARAMETERS KEY M&E INDICATORS endpoints or ultimate outcomes, evaluations should 1. Agricultural • Large-scale and focus on the changes in immediate and intermediate productivity, smallholder outcomes that are delivered by climate-resilient including livestock productivity yield/ha agriculture interventions. Such intermediate outcomes and fisheries • Patterns of land use might include changes in knowledge, behaviour, and type of crops enhanced social learning and organizational grown strength, which are most likely to be related directly • Animal count/ha to intervention activities. Based on these changes, it (livestock numbers) is possible to extrapolate the likely net effect of the • Fisheries count intervention on the ultimate outcomes rather than • Post-harvest loss and attempt to measure this impact. Another suggestion waste is to use data from trials conducted over multiple 2. Soil fertility: soil • Soil fertility maps growing seasons to extrapolate from the measured moisture content, • Amount of land under changes in the adoption of climate-resilient agriculture nutrient status, soil irrigation practices to changes in yields and income. Thus, it is pH status crucial to interrogate the contribution of the human 3. Preventing soil loss • Soil loss (erosion) and social capital of farmers to the impact of climate- maps resilient agriculture interventions when assessing the impacts of these innovations, in order to achieve a 4. Vegetation • Rainwater (cubic fuller understanding of the merits of the adoption of (greenness) index metres) differing approaches. This is particularly relevant in the • Recovery of Nigerian context, where there is currently low adaptive vegetation/grazing lands capacity and poor levels of knowledge and social learning. • Change detection/ area coverage 1 See: www.careclimatechange.org 102 NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK

Table 9.2 Framework for Baseline Assessments for M&E

PARAMETERS FREQUENCY LEAD NATIONAL TOOLKITS AND OTHER CONSIDERATIONS OF M&E AGENCY SUPPORT AGENCIES 1. Agricultural productivity, including livestock and fisheries Large-scale and Annually Crop division- Remote sensing Current remote sensing data from smallholder Department of – the National NASRDA is up to 5 m2 resolution. productivity Agriculture in the Space Research There are plans to improve yield/ha FMARD Development the resolution to 0.5 m2, which Agency (NASRDA) will improve the quality and robustness of the data. Patterns of land Annually Crop division and The NASRDA use and type of land resources – should also crops grown Federal Department contribute to M&E of Agriculture in the in this aspect FMARD Animal count/ Annually Livestock Remote sensing – Within the context of climate- ha (livestock Department in the the NASRDA resilient agriculture, this parameter numbers) FMARD has socio-cultural implications with regard to achieving reductions in land degradation, (pastoral vs. sedentary livestock management) to maintain the overall productive capacity of land Fisheries count Annually – Federal Department Implications include monitoring economic of Fisheries in the aquatic ecosystems and their data on FMARD impact pathways through the fisheries fisheries, aquaculture and coastal stocks and systems aquaculture Post-harvest loss Annually Planning, research The FMARD and waste and statistics unit in agricultural the FMARD extension services should also contribute to M&E in this aspect 2. Soil fertility: soil water holding capacity, nutrient status, soil pH status Soil fertility Annually Soil fertility division Nitrogen, in the FMARD phosphorus, and potassium standard toolkit Soil organic matter content Soil fertility To be Soil fertility division The current soil fertility maps are maps updated in the FMARD obsolete as the data are over 20 every five years old years

Amount of Annually Land resources The NASRDA Indications are that this parameter irrigated land division in the should also is not effectively monitored FMARD contribute to M&E currently –data are patchy and ad in this aspect hoc CHAPTER 9: MONITORING AND EVALUATION 103

PARAMETERS FREQUENCY LEAD NATIONAL TOOLKITS AND OTHER CONSIDERATIONS OF M&E AGENCY SUPPORT AGENCIES 3. Preventing soil loss Soil loss (erosion) To be Land resources The NASRDA should The current soil loss/erosion maps maps updated division in the also contribute to are obsolete as the data are over every 10 FMARD M&E in this aspect 20 years old years 4. Vegetation (greenness) index: These parameters are key outcomes for the M&E of enhanced climate-resilient agriculture in livestock management; rainfall patterns and effective irrigation schemes Rainwater (m3) Annually The NIMET Recovery of Annually National Centre for GIS and Remote vegetation in Remote Sensing Sensing Unit, Land grazing land (NCRS)-NASRDA Resources in the FMARD Change Annually The NCRS-NASRDA GIS and Remote detection/area Sensing Unit, Land coverage Resources in the FMARD

In the Nigerian context, the role of GIS analytical Nigeria. In pursuit of this goal, during the last decade and mapping capabilities and community-based the NASRDA has deployed three earth observation adaptation technologies and approaches will be satellites and one telecommunications satellite into critical to developing and enhancing capacity, space. Currently two earth observation satellites delivering economies of scale and empowering (NigeriaSat-2 and Nigeria Sat-X) are operational. participatory and inclusive modes of assessment. These have daily revisit periods over Nigeria, thereby The following sections describe some of the M&E providing capacity to adequately monitor the rates work being undertaken currently by the NASRDA and trends of development. In addition, the NASRDA and highlight the key M&E tools. Box 9.1 describes an has successfully developed the capacity to deploy examples of the activities carried out by the FMARD in remote sensing and GIS tools to use the products 2012 and 2013. of these satellites to support research in agriculture, infrastructure development, environmental hazards The National Space Research and management, security, demography, etc. Development Agency Between July and October 2012, about 12 States in Nigeria were severely affected by flooding. A The NASRDA is a key player with regard to providing post-disaster needs assessment carried out by the data for facilitating the M&E and assessment of desired National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) outcomes for climate-resilient agriculture in Nigeria. in conjunction with other stakeholder institutions, Some of the work currently being undertaken by estimated the impact of the flood to be 2.62 billion the NASRDA with the Nigeriasat-1, Nigeriasat-2 and Naira (NEMA, 2013). The total area of agricultural land Nigeria-sat-X satellites is outlined in Table 9.4. affected by the flood was estimated at 11,044 2km , with an estimated 30% of rice crop production lost to The Role of Geo-Spatial the flood (NEMA, 2013). Techniques in M&E Assessment of the areas affected by the flood and the The NASRDA has the mandate to provide both the post-impact analysis were aided by the deployment of infrastructure and technical competence in the space techniques. Working in collaboration with the development and deployment of space-based United Nations Platform for Space-based Information technologies for the socio-economic development of for Disaster Management and Emergency Response, 104 NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK

Table 9.3 Recommended milestones and indicators for climate- resilient agriculture in Nigeria

ENABLING FACTORS MILESTONES INDICATORS DEFINITION OF INDICATORS Farmers are Farmers are aware of future % of farmers able to describe Local knowledge on using climate climate projections for their broad future climate trends climate change is important information locality in catalysing action on for planning adaptation and employing climate- Raising awareness of resilient expected trends in future agriculture climate gives farmers a base of information upon which to plan and analyse risks

Farmers are monitoring key Mechanisms in place Monitoring of climate climate variables to monitor key climate variables is an essential variables (e.g., rainfall, step in managing climate temperature, extreme variability and in preparing Farmers have the skills, events) for longer-term climate knowledge and awareness change to develop their own Observations of climate indicators of climate inputs change are recorded Local observations of climate change are important to complement scientific information that is often available only at large scales Farmers are using climate % of farmers including When available, climate information in planning vulnerable groups using monitoring information and livelihood strategies climate monitoring seasonal forecasts can help information to plan their in planning and analysing livelihoods (e.g., shifting to risks to agriculture and other early maturing crops) livelihood strategies.

Farmers are producing crops % of farmers including Crops and varieties that that are resilient to climate vulnerable groups growing are suited to the changing hazards crops that are resilient to climate must be introduced climate hazards affecting the and adopted in order to target area (e.g., drought- reduce risk of crop loss resistant varieties) Farmers are practising % of farmers using Conservation agriculture conservation agriculture conservation agriculture practices conserve soil practice. moisture and increase fertility, thereby increasing resilience to erratic rainfall Farmers are aware of % of farmers aware of Farmers need to know that adaptation strategies climate-resilient strategies there are alternatives in order appropriate to their context to plan for adaptation Farmers have technical skills % of farmers trained in Some adaptation strategies to implement adaptation technical skills may require new technical strategies skills for implementation % of farmers demonstrating application of skills Application of skills demonstrates proficiency CHAPTER 9: MONITORING AND EVALUATION 105

ENABLING FACTORS MILESTONES INDICATORS DEFINITION OF INDICATORS Mechanisms exist for % of farming communities Farmers need information sharing seasonal forecasts where seasonal forecasts about climate in order and climate monitoring and climate information are to analyse risk and plan information shared accordingly

Means of sharing (e.g., radio, A variety of communication mobile phones, community means may be needed to meetings, etc.) reach the entire farming community Farmers are aware of how % of farmers aware of In order for communication to access this information information sharing to be effective, farmers must and are able to properly mechanisms be aware of how and when interpret and communicate information is shared climate change projection Building Extension workers Extension workers are aware Extension workers work capacity of understand climate risks of climate trends directly with communities, extension providing technical support workers Extension workers are on farmers’ livelihoods, so able to link climate trends it is important that these to impacts on farmers’ agents are aware of climate livelihoods trends and how these may impact farmers’ livelihoods. Extension workers are Extension workers are aware Awareness of climate trends promoting adaptation of appropriate adaptation should lead to identification strategies strategies for the local and promotion of context adaptation strategies by extension workers Extension workers are integrating adaptation strategies in their work with farming communities National and National and local National/local planning Participation of civil society local planning planning processes processes specifically and farmers’ communities processes incorporate mechanisms for mandate participation of in national/local planning participation by civil society civil society and farmers’ is essential to good organizations and farmers’ organizations governance organizations Views of civil society and Civil society and farmers’ Real participation means farmers’ organizations are organizations feel their civil society including integrated in national and views have been taken up in farmers are able to influence local plans national/local plans decision-making

National/local plans reflect civil society and farmers’ priorities National/local planning National/local planning Participation of women processes incorporate processes specifically and youth in national/local mechanisms to ensure the mandate participation of planning is essential to good views of women and youth women and youth governance are integrated Real participation means women and marginalized groups are able to influence decision-making 106 NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK

ENABLING FACTORS MILESTONES INDICATORS DEFINITION OF INDICATORS Land tenure policies provide Land tenure policies provide Unclear tenure policies can secure access to and control clear guidance on tenure lead to conflict among land over land users and owners Land tenure policies do not discriminate against women Farmers need to understand and youth what their rights are in order to ensure security of tenure

Discriminatory policies can exacerbate vulnerability Government policy and Number and type of An equitable approach to planning documents policy and planning adaptation requires analysis incorporate analysis of the documents that incorporate of differential vulnerabilities vulnerability of women and vulnerability analysis, and among genders and social youth incorporate actions to groups address specific vulnerability of women and youth The quality of the analysis is important to lead Quality of actions identified policymakers to appropriate actions

Ideally the analysis will lead to the identification of actions that address specific vulnerability of women and youth

the Regional Centre for Training in Aerospace Survey Box 9.1 Building Nigeria’s and the NEMA, the NASRDA acquired, processed, Response to Climate Change analysed and mapped the areas affected by the flood (BRNCC) disaster. The assessment monitored and evaluated the extent of damage to housing, crops and infrastructure and measured the total area of farmland affected using The BNRCC project operated between 2007 and GIS/remote sensing change detection techniques. The 2011 and used community-based adaptation evaluation and comparison of pre- and post-disaster approaches in its pilot projects. The M&E of the satellite images allowed the team to produce maps, pilot projects assessed deliverables on such charts and tables to clearly identify areas with partial objectives as improvements in climate-resilient and total damage. The evaluation forms the basis livelihoods, disaster risk reduction, local capacity for risk reduction in the event of future disaster, and development, reduction of the underlying remediation in the affected sectors. causes of vulnerability and changes in policy that assist communities in adaptation. Indicators were both qualitative and quantitative. Separate 9.7 Structures, assessments were made for women and men to show differences in outcomes by gender. Other Staffing and Capacity indicators were the level of knowledge of climate change, vulnerability status, gender sensitivity, Requirements adaptation practices and whether the project The large range of stakeholders who need to be was community-driven (bottom-up rather than involved in M&E regarding the transition to climate- top-down). resilient agriculture in Nigeria presents a considerable Source: NEST and Woodley (2012). challenge to identifying appropriate structures, staffing and capacity requirements. The scenario is complicated CHAPTER 9: MONITORING AND EVALUATION 107

Table 9.4 NASRDA projects

PROJECT TITLE AIMS/OBJECTIVES SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT COLLABORATING AND STATUS INSTITUTIONS 1. Development of To model the physical features – Provide data on area of land The FMARD a model for cassava topography, soil type, moisture content, put to cassava IITA yield prediction location etc. – for predicting cassava yield Provide data on how to using remote To identify agro-meteorological elements increase production sensing and GIS of rainfall and temperatures as constraining Provide information on factors for cassava production potential land area Project completed To compare trends obtained from remote sensing/GIS technologies against the current field, sub-plot, sampling method over a two-year period To provide data on the cultivatable land suitable for cassava production 2. Monitoring To evaluate spatio-temporal changes in The research aims to Obafemi deforestation and Nigeria’s reserves and its implications on help bring about an Awolowo its implications on flora and fauna using a GIS system-based environmentally profitable University biodiversity using forests monitoring and Nigerian satellites as modification of policies and data from Nigerian primary data sources decision-making processes satellites relevant to agriculture and the forestry sector in Nigeria Project completed 3. Development To assist in the enhancement of Fadama To boost Nigeria’s potential of Fadama Land (wetland) based rice cultivation and to for increased rice cultivation Information boost production in Nigeria and rice production Management monitoring System Project completed 4. Land use/land To update the current land use/land cover To facilitate the automation The FORMECU cover mapping of map produced by the Forestry Research of the production of land University of Nigeria M&E Unit (FORMECU) in 1995 use/land cover maps of Ibadan Nigeria at a good scale of Regional Centre Project ongoing 1:100,000 every five years for Training using Nigerian satellites in Aerospace Surveys 5. Satellite mapping To conduct a comprehensive mapping of To update spatial and and monitoring of irrigation command area distribution, and statistical information on irrigation command utility status of irrigation command areas projects and monitor the areas in Nigeria using remote sensing and GIS technologies level of success of irrigation programmes (e.g., Fadama) Project ongoing To assess potential for the application of satellite data and GIS in the monitoring of agricultural land use change projects including irrigation, floodplain development and environmental factors affecting them 6.Nigeriasat-1 To apply space technology to improve Improve production The FMARD satellite data and agriculture and increase productivity practices, access to markets The NIMET ICT-based farming and food security IITA (E-agriculture) Project ongoing 108 NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK further by the fact that some of the key agencies The NIMET, an agency of the Federal Ministry of involved are located in ministries other than the FMARD. Aviation, identifies its challenges as poor quantity and Thus, their line management, supervisory and reporting quality of staff, and the need for resources with regard functions are very much outside the remit of the FMARD. to increasing its limited number of weather stations. These are needed so that they can provide more timely This makes it difficult for M&E data to be collated, and detailed weather information and forecasting shared and disseminated, and the current situation through communication outlets, such as radio stations is chaotic, ad-hoc and creates duplication. As a and mobile phones, at minimal cost to the farming, result, there is poor translation of data into coherent pastoralist and fishing communities in Nigeria. policymaking, and the dissemination of information to the primary beneficiaries – the farming, pastoralist The ARCN of the FMARD is currently planning a and fishing communities – is lacking. A further major re-alignment of its structures, which include complication arises from the fact that Nigerian multi-institutional research institutions, universities of agriculture is dominated by small-scale farmers, agriculture, faculties of agriculture, etc. The intention who have less adaptive capacity than their large is to streamline its programmes and activities, address commercial counterparts. the waste of resources from duplication by its various entities, and identify where the gaps are, particularly What is clear from the ACARN meetings, stakeholder with regard to extension services and reducing the Town Hall meetings, and interactions with the different gap from the “laboratory to the farm and to the fork”. government departments, agencies, institutions, etc., is that they all admit to experiencing profound There is also a need to structure and address the challenges in terms of delivering effective M&E shortcomings in M&E in the ARCN’s institutions. for climate-resilient agriculture in Nigeria. These A possible way forward is to create a centralized include reporting structures (over-bureaucratic M&E unit within the ARCN to co-ordinate and focus and duplicating), staffing (quantity and quality of the M&E activities of its constituent entities. This skilled personnel), capacity and resources in terms of centralized M&E unit could provide a coherent operating budgets, transport vehicles, information framework that would deliver not only cost savings and communication technology (ICT) equipment and through cutting duplication, but also an enhanced infrastructure, office accommodation, etc. service to extension staff and end-users in the farming, The NASRDA, an agency of the Federal Ministry of pastoralist and fishing communities through the Science and Technology, has outlined key challenges REFILS project. in recovering their costs from stakeholders with regard Other relevant Federal Government ministries are to the downloading, encryption and transcription those concerned with water resources, environment, costs from their satellite systems. They also have and land and urban development. Their roles in the difficulty recruiting and retaining skilled staff, given M&E of climate-resilient agriculture and the challenges their high-tech operations. they face in this regard also need to be investigated For the Department of Land Resources (under the and streamlined in order to deliver a cohesive and FMARD), their challenges relate to poor quantity and effective M&E framework. quality of staff and resources, particularly transport and The complex and multi-institutional nature of the ICT equipment and infrastructure. current scenario means it will be difficult to define The Agricultural Extension Services Department the appropriate structures, staffing and capacity (under the FMARD) has a key role to play, particularly requirements for the delivery of effective M&E for with regard to participatory approaches that involve climate-resilient agriculture in Nigeria in line with the farming, pastoralist and fishing communities. the ACARN recommendations. What is required is a Enhanced participation will secure sustained buy-in comprehensive review of all current stakeholders, from these key end-user communities, giving them including the various government departments and better access to and use of the data. This in turn will agencies, and the nature of their current roles. This will support the social learning and behavioural change provide clarity as to who undertakes what M&E, where needed to promote the transition to climate-resilient the overlaps and duplication occur, where there are agriculture. However, as mentioned in previous gaps in data and provision, where cost savings can be chapters, the agricultural extension services suffer made through identification of economies of scale and from a lack of investment and, at present, struggle with cutting duplication, and the best strategic fit for all the limitations in human resources and transport. different agencies and organizations. CHAPTER 9: MONITORING AND EVALUATION 109

9.8 Gender Box 9.2 Climate change, Mainstreaming for agriculture and food M&E security There are few climate change adaptation For M&E to have the desired effect of enhancing the projects and programmes already in practice in transition to climate-resilient agriculture in Nigeria, the smallholder agriculture sector. It is therefore it needs to be implemented in a mainstreamed valuable to learn from those that do exist. The approach that ensures the buy-in of all relevant CGIAR research programme on Climate Change, stakeholders, including the Federal Government; Agriculture and Food Security has recently farming, pastoralist and fishing communities; civil published a working paper entitled Monitoring society; the private sector; and agro-processers – in Adaptation to Enhance Food Security: A Survey of short, all those involved in the agriculture value chain. Approaches and Best Practice. As the title states, It will be particularly important to strengthen the the paper reviews recent approaches to M&E of capacity of women’s ministries, women’s groups climate change adaptation projects. In particular, and gender researchers to capture and document it explores methods to monitor and evaluate gender perspectives of climate change. The practical outcomes for local food security. implications for adaptation planning is fundamental to The authors of the paper draw the following gender mainstreaming in the M&E of climate-resilient lessons for M&E of adaptation projects in agriculture in Nigeria. smallholder agriculture: A framework should be developed as part of the Agree on a common framework or outcome FMARD’s implementation of the ACARN Report to pathway with clear and agreed outcomes. A generate the pivotal networks of gender researchers, common framework keeps all stakeholders empowerment practitioners, women farmers (who focused on the desired outcomes (not form the majority of smallholder farmers in Nigeria), just indicators of process), as well as the and relevant strategic Federal Government ministries best approach to evaluating successful such as the Ministry of Women’s Affairs, to dialogue, adaptation. conceptualize and design a strategic gender Use scenarios exercises to handle the mainstreaming programme for climate-resilient necessary planning under uncertainty, agriculture in Nigeria. A key goal for this framework will combined with ex-ante assessments of be to deliver sustainable equitable gains for women adaptation investments and interventions to throughout the agriculture value chain and provide identify robust strategies. them with the tools they need to participate fully in Be explicit about what constitutes successful and contribute to the effective M&E of climate-resilient adaptation for the outcome pathway. Use this agriculture in Nigeria. logic to track progress of the selected robust Box 9.2 highlights good practice recommendations strategies on the ground. with regard to the sustainability of M&E for climate- Take a learning approach to M&E with resilient agriculture and gender mainstreaming, and stakeholders at multiple institutional levels. Box 9.3 describes a smallholder agricultural adaptation This means using incoming information from programme. monitoring on a regular basis to evaluate progress collectively and decide on any necessary change of course. 9.9 Conclusions Enable and encourage data sharing across projects doing M&E of adaptation. M&E is crucial for assessing the effectiveness of the FMARD’s strategies (policies, programmes, projects, Agree on a system for assessing and activities, etc.), to deliver its vision of innovative prioritizing among desired outcomes for food climate-resilient agriculture in Nigeria. There are many and nutrition security, local livelihoods, rural challenges to implementing effective M&E. The first development, adaptation and environmental key one relates to the dynamic nature of climate benefits. change and agriculture, and the corresponding need Source: Chesterman and Ericksen (2013) for rapid and continuous data gathering and analysis, 110 NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK

as well as information dissemination. The second key Box 9.3 IFAD’s Adaptation challenge is the uncoordinated and ad-hoc nature of for Smallholder Agriculture the current multi-institutional response. Programme 9.10 References IFAD launched the Adaptation for Smallholder Agriculture Programme (ASAP) in 2012 to BNRCC. 2011. Climate Change Scenarios for Nigeria: make climate and environmental finance work Understanding Biophysical Impacts. Building Nigeria’s for smallholder farmers. The ASAP is driving Response to Climate Change Project. Ibadan, Nigeria: a major scaling up of successful ‘multiple- Nigeria Environmental Study/Action Team. benefit’ approaches to smallholder agriculture, Chesterman, S. and Ericksen, P. 2013. ‘Monitoring which improve production while reducing and adaptation to enhance food security: A survey of diversifying climate-related risks. In doing so, the approaches and best practice’. Working Paper 51. ASAP is blending tried-and-tested approaches Copenhagen, Denmark: CGIAR Research Programme to rural development with relevant adaptation on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security. know-how and technologies. NEMA. 2013. Report of 2012 Flood Post Disaster Needs ASAP Goal: Poor smallholder farmers are more Assessment. Abuja, Nigeria: Nigeria Emergency resilient to climate change. Management Agency. ASAP Purpose: Multiple benefit adaptation NEST and Woodley, E. 2012. Learning from Experience approaches for poor smallholder farmers are – Community-based Adaptation to Climate Change in scaled up. Nigeria. Building Nigeria’s Response to Climate Change Source: Adapted from www.ifad.org/climate/asap Project. Ibadan, Nigeria: Nigeria Environmental Study/ Action Team. 10 Conclusions and Recommendations

CHAPTER 10: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 113

“Agriculture – is our wisest pursuit, because it will in the end contribute most to real wealth, good morals, and happiness.” ­—Thomas Jefferson in a letter to George Washington.1

“In the longer term, climate change is likely to have a bigger effect on food supply than any other factor. Moreover, agriculture will probably be affected more than any other economic sector in the developing countries (this may also be true for developed countries).” —Sir Gordon Conway2

Nigeria’s ATA is based on the premise that agriculture system, as well as River Basin Authorities. These has the power to drive the economic development Authorities interact with the agricultural communities of the country. History shows that this can – and has on a regular basis and are well positioned to attest to – been the case in numerous countries around the the farmers’ innovative practices in the face of climate world. However, climate change has the potential change and their preparedness and capability in to derail the promised agricultural revolution unless adapting introduced technologies. appropriate action is taken, and policy, regulatory and institutional frameworks are developed, to guide The ACARN’S subsequent interactions in the field the implementation of the Agenda and insulate it have shown that trying to provide definitive answers from the shocks and stresses caused by the impacts using scientific knowledge and climate models was of climate change. As climate change amplifies the not what farmers wanted or needed most. Rather, environmental and socio-economic drivers of food there is evidence that, even with limited or no formal insecurity, it is imperative to prioritize where, how education, farmers have demonstrated dexterity in and when to act. There is an urgent need to instil using simple science-based rules of thumb at critical resilience in the Nigerian agriculture sector through points (often narrow windows), such as for planting, a shift to climate-resilient agriculture. This requires harvesting, pest control, etc. They use these rules to the development and implementation of planned make better-informed decisions and minimize their adaptation initiatives, the outputs and outcomes of risk while maximizing their opportunities, given the which must be assessed and evaluated systematically. fact that the future twists and turns of the changing climate may never be fully anticipated. The members of the ACARN include distinguished and experienced experts on the subject matter from The methodology adopted in this study was to distil around the world. They include senior functionaries the priority risks to the agriculture sector posed by from the World Bank, the African Development Bank climate variability and climate change, to enquire and the CGIAR. But it was clear from the outset that as into the most suitable strategies and technologies for distinguished as the Committee members are, there is overcoming or coping with such risks, and to make no substitute to hearing from the farmers themselves recommendations as appropriate that will lead to in terms of the impacts of climate change they have either their resolution or containment. experienced, and the methods deployed by them Policies for climate-resilient agriculture must as individuals and communities in adapting to the simultaneously address (or balance) a variety of needs, problems encountered. Town-Hall-style meetings in all including productivity, nutrition, farmer profitability, six geo-political zones of the country were therefore inclusiveness, access and environmental sustainability. scheduled as part of the ACARN work programme to Many stresses and shocks are interlinked; for example, gather information and promote interaction among energy and input price volatility, extreme weather stakeholders. events and climate change, growing scarcity of natural The members also exchanged information with resources and poverty and inequality. Policies must research institutes of the ACARN and the university factor these competing challenges.

1 Kaminski, J.P. 2006. The Quotable Jefferson. Princeton, NJ, USA: Princeton University Press. 2 Conway, G. 2012. One Billion Hungry: Can We Feed the World? Ithaca, USA: Comstock Publishing Associates. 114 NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK

To mainstream climate change adaptation and investments to fund major efforts to take these entrench agricultural resilience, the FMARD will need initiatives to a large scale. to undertake multifaceted risk assessments that Develop improved range management (e.g., incorporate not only climate risk, but also existing sown pastures) and explore collaboratively with vulnerabilities, such as low levels of development, pastoralists viable futures for the development a dearth of appropriate institutions and legal of pastoralism in Nigeria. Options to consider frameworks, poor governance models, and projected include a move towards more sedentary livestock future trends such as population growth, rural-to- management and creation of a national network urban migration, and increasing land and water of well-defined stock routes and watering points. scarcity. Overhaul both the agricultural extension and research services and the national agricultural In the longer term, climate change is likely to have research management systems for efficiency and a bigger effect on food supply than any other effectiveness of actions. factor. Although much progress has been made in Improve funding for research on climate resilience developing adaptive farming systems through agro- in Nigerian agriculture to provide a secure and ecological technologies and by breeding for drought competitive financial resource base for top-quality or submergence tolerance, the applications are often research. small in scope and should be increased. Develop strategies for mechanization of Recommendations agricultural production. Build capacity within the FMARD and the Governments (Federal, state and local), in partnership agricultural research system to routinely and with the private sector, development partners and successfully model the vulnerabilities of the NGOs, should: agro-ecological systems to the vagaries of climate change to enable a continuous refinement of the Put climate-resilient agricultural policies at the strategies and agro-technologies made available heart of broader government economic policy, through research and production for management including the further development of agricultural of climate risks for resilience in agriculture. value chains and an environment conducive to Institute a credible monitoring and evaluation private investment. system to help create efficiencies and track Adapt meteorological, hydrologic and improvements in climate-resilient agriculture oceanographic data and information, including implementation. early warning systems, to the needs of agricultural Create an Agricultural Resilience Fund to provide communities by improving spatial-temporal scales a steady and predictable funding stream to of forecasts and models and by providing timely strengthen agricultural resilience and implement a and accurate advice on tactical and strategic robust climate-resilient programme in Nigeria. decisions. While concerted actions would seem a fait accompli, Support sustainable intensification of agriculture this report insists that the Federal Government has by scaling up conservation farming, integrated pest management, efficient resource management and the distinct responsibility to create the enabling modern plant/livestock/fish breeding technologies environment – social, economic and political – while conserving and managing local germplasm, propitious for building and entrenching the requisite in situ and ex situ, for future breeding programmes resilience. The implied actions, policies and institutions and strengthening local rights over farmland and go beyond the mandate of the FMARD to other common natural resources. complementary but equally critical sectors: Target funding aimed at reducing land Water resources: more efficient river basin degradation, emphasizing the design of systems management planning would provide a resilient, for financial, insurance and other incentives, and sustainable water environment that protects support the development of major water-use existing quality and promotes improvements in schemes, such as irrigation, micro-catchment irrigation, water harvesting and soil moisture- water harvesting and conservation, as appropriate. retaining technologies. Develop innovative adaptation programmes such Aviation: the Nigerian Meteorological Agency as agroforestry, sustainable land management, would provide state-of-the-art and real-time conservation agriculture, etc. in consultation weather forecasting services, including early with local communities, and make the necessary warning systems to agricultural communities. CHAPTER 10: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 115

Energy: this would drive the development Nigeria must navigate towards a ‘safe operating space’ of technologies, policies and actions towards that provides adequate food and nutrition security alternative and renewable energy sources that for everyone, while boosting robust economic would enable the transition away from fossil fuels growth and without crossing critical environmental to a low-carbon economy. thresholds. Charting a course towards this space Industry: this will ensure vast and reliable will require innovative technologies, policies and markets for farm produce and generate institutions that will guarantee agricultural resilience employment. to the impacts of current and future changes in the Commerce and trade: this will keep the climate regime. While change will have significant agriculture value chains fully functional and costs, the implications of remaining on a ‘business as lucrative through pragmatic trade policies and usual’ path is already enormous and growing. Given marketing strategies. the already intolerable conditions of many livelihoods Works and transport: this will build the needed and ecosystems and the time lag between research infrastructure, such as all-season and durable and development and widespread application, urgent road networks that are critical for linking rural and action must be taken now. urban economies. Whereas the present NARF report presents a robust Science and technology: this can stimulate framework for achieving agricultural resilience, the research that will inform policy development and greater challenge is its implementation. Scoping underpin actions in the sector. an implementation plan that would encapsulate The Ministry of Finance: this body will provide the building of competencies within the FMARD to a catalysing financial and investment environment. routinely undertake the implied tasks and accomplish expected outcomes is the next critical mission for the Cutting across these institutional boundaries are ACARN. It will be crucial to the accomplishment of systems of private sector governance and civil the objectives and targets of agricultural resilience in society preferences and advocacy. There is obviously Nigeria. a need for harmonization or restructuring of the architecture for planning, programme formulation Implementation of the NARF should be based on and implementation support across institutions with principles of adaptive management and participatory mandates relating to the many dimensions of food engagement as the central tenets of the overall security, poverty eradication, sustainable development implementation strategy. Adaptive management and climate change. acknowledges uncertainty as a context of decision- making and builds flexibility into policy and decision- The links required to build an agricultural resilience making to manage risk. It also allows for new platform suggests that it would be a good idea for the knowledge input. This is important because agriculture FMARD to host a ministerial-level dialogue prior to the sector investments are capital-intensive and long- implementation of this report, to focus the attention lived; building climate change considerations into the of various sectors of the national economy on the design of these investments is necessary even with intertwined nature of the recommended actions some degree of uncertainty in climate projections. and policies. This would also promote buy-in by Decisions made in other sectors almost always have other players deemed critical to the implementation an impact on the ability of the natural environment process. The need for clear role assignments and to adapt. It is important that adaptation activities for cohesion among the various ministries, departments agriculture take into account the role of the natural and agencies of government, the private sector, environment and develop solutions that are in development partners, NGOs, CBOs and agricultural harmony with nature. communities could not be stressed more. Annexes ANNEXES 117

FFS farmer field school Annex 1 Acronyms FGN Federal Government of Nigeria and Abbreviations FMARD Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development ACARN Advisory Committee on Agricultural Resilience in Nigeria FME Federal Ministry of Environment AEZ agro-ecological zone FMWR Federal Ministry of Water Resources ARCN Agricultural Research Council of Nigeria FORMECU Forestry Research Monitoring and Evaluation ASAP Adaptation for Smallholder Agriculture Unit Programme GCCA Global Climate Change Alliance ATA Agricultural Transformational Agenda GCM General Circulation Models BNRCC Building Nigeria’s Response to Climate Change GCTD Global Climate Technology Development CAADP Comprehensive Africa Agriculture GDP gross domestic product Development Program GEF Global Environment Facility CAK GIS geographic information system CBO community-based organization ha hectare CCAFS Climate Change Agriculture and Food IAR&T Institute of Agricultural Research and Training Security ICI International Climate Initiative CDM Clean Development Mechanism ICRISAT International Crops Research Institute for the CGIAR Consultative Group on International Semi-Arid Tropics Agricultural Research ICT information and computer technology CILSS Comité permanent Inter-Etats de Lutte contre la Sécheresse dans le Sahel / IFAD International Fund for Agricultural Permanent Interstates Committee for Development Drought Control in the Sahel IFC International Finance Corp CMCC-MED IFPRI International Food Policy Research Institute Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici - Mediterranean IIGCC Institutional Investors Group on Climate Change CMIP3 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project IITA International Institute of Tropical Agriculture CO2 carbon dioxide IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change COSMO-CLM COSMO Model in Climate Mode ITD Inter-Tropical Discontinuity CSO civil society organization JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency DSSAT Decision Support System for Agro- KfW Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau / technology Transfer Reconstruction Credit Institute ECOWAS LDC Least Developed Country Economic Community of West African States LDCF Least Developed Country Fund EMBRAPA M&E monitoring and evaluation Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation MDG Millennium Development Goal EU European Union mm millimetre FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations NAIC National Agriculture Insurance Company FDI Foreign Direct Investment NAMA nationally appropriate mitigation activity 118 NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK

NAPRI National Animal Production Research Institute ODA Overseas Development Assistance NARF National Agricultural Resilience Framework PPCR Pilot Program for Climate Resilience NARP National Agricultural Research Project RBDA River Basin Development Authority NARS national agricultural research system RCM regional climate model NASPA-CCN REDD Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and National Adaptation Strategy and Plan of Forest Degradation Action on Climate Change for Nigeria REFILS Research Extension Farmers Input Linkage NASRDA System National Space Research and Development SCCF Strategic Climate Change Fund Agency UK United Kingdom NCRS National Centre for Remote Sensing UNCTAD NEMA National Emergency Management Agency United Nations Conference on Trade and NEST Nigeria’s Environmental Study/Action Team Development NFACS National Framework on Application of UNDP United Nations Development Programme Climate Services UNFCCC NGO non-governmental organization United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change NIHSA Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency USAID United States Agency for International NIMET Nigeria Meteorological Agency Development NIOMR Nigerian Institute for Oceanography and US United States Marine Research WMO World Meteorological Organization NSIF-SLM Nigeria Strategic Investment Framework for WECARD/CORAF Sustainable Land Management West and Central African Council for Agricultural Research and Development NSPRI Nigerian Stored Products Research Institute / Conseil Ouest et Centre Africain pour la NTWG National Technical Working Group Recherche et le Développement Agricoles ANNEXES 119

it as adjustment in natural or human systems in Annex 2 Definition response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial of Key Terms and opportunities. The United Nations Development Concepts Programme defines it as a process by which strategies to moderate, cope with and take advantage of the Adaptive capacity: The ability of a system to adjust consequences of climatic events are enhanced, to climate change (including climate variability and developed and implemented. extremes) and other stressors to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to Climate change mitigation: Refers to efforts to cope with the consequences. reduce or prevent emission of greenhouse gases. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change defines Agriculture: The use of water and soil for crop it as human intervention to reduce the sources or production, forestry, livestock and fisheries, including enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases. aquaculture. Climate hazard: Any event or change in climate, Agricultural resilience: The capacity of agricultural such as a single extreme event that exceeds a critical development to withstand or recover from stresses threshold, or a complex combination of changes and shocks and thus bounce back to the previous involving multiple climate variables and/or resulting in level of growth. A stress can be defined as a regular, multiple impacts. sometimes continuous, relatively small and predictable disturbance, for example the effect of growing Climate impacts: Measurable outcomes of (or soil salinity or lack of rainfall. A shock, on the hand, system responses to) changing climate and/or climate is an irregular, relatively large and unpredictable extremes that are typically modulated by changes in disturbance, such as is caused by a rare drought or bio-geophysical and anthropogenic systems. flood. Resilient agriculture creates agricultural growth Climate model: A numerical representation of out of knowledge, investment and innovation, the climate system based on the physical, chemical while simultaneously building the capacity of and biological properties of its components, their farmers, particularly smallholder farmers to counter interactions and feedback processes, and accounting environmental degradation and climate change. for all or some of its known properties. Coupled Agroforestry: A system of land use in which atmosphere/ocean/sea-ice General Circulation Models harvestable trees or shrubs are grown among or provide a comprehensive representation of the climate around crops or on pastureland, as a means of system and they can be applied as a research tool, to preserving or enhancing the productivity of the land. study and simulate the climate, but also for operational purposes, including monthly, seasonal and inter- Climate: Climate in a narrow sense is usually defined annual climate predictions. as the “average weather” or, more rigorously, as the statistical description in terms of the mean and Climate prediction: A climate prediction or climate variability of relevant quantities over a period of time forecast is the result of an attempt to produce a most ranging from months to thousands or millions of years. likely description or estimate of the actual evolution of These quantities are most often weather parameters the climate in the future, e.g., at seasonal, inter-annual such as temperature, precipitation and wind. The or long-term time scales. classical period is 30 years, as defined by the World Climate projection: A projection of the response Meteorological Organization. of the climate system to emission or concentration scenarios of greenhouse gases and aerosols, or Climate change: Climate change refers to a statistically radiative forcing scenarios, often based upon significant variation in either the mean state of the simulations by climate models. Climate projections climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended are distinguished from climate predictions in order period (typically decades or longer). Climate change to emphasize that climate projections depend upon may be due to natural internal processes or external the emission/concentration/radiative forcing scenario forces, or to persistent anthropogenic changes in the used, which are based on assumptions, concerning, composition of the atmosphere or in land use. e.g., future socio-economic and technological Climate change adaptation: The developments, that may or may not be realized, and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change describes are therefore subject to substantial uncertainty. 120 NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK

Climate resilience: The capacity of an individual, or economic productivity and complexity of rain-fed community, or system to dynamically and effectively cropland, irrigated cropland or range, pasture, forest respond to current climate variability and future and woodlands resulting from land uses or from climate impact while continuing to function at an a process or combination of processes, including acceptable level. Simply put, it is the ability to survive processes arising from human activities and habitation and recover from the effects of climate variability and patterns, such as soil erosion caused by wind and/ change. or water; deterioration of the physical, chemical and biological or economic properties of soil; and long- Climate scenario: A plausible and often simplified term loss of natural vegetation. representation of the future climate, based on an internally consistent set of climatological Extreme weather event: An extreme weather event relationships that has been constructed for explicit is an event that is rare within its statistical reference use in investigating the potential consequences distribution at a particular place. Definitions of “rare” of anthropogenic climate change, often serving as vary, but an extreme weather event would normally be input to impact models. Climate projections often as rare as or rarer than the 10th or 90th percentile. By serve as the raw material for constructing climate definition, the characteristics of what is called extreme scenarios, but climate scenarios usually require weather may vary from place to place. additional information such as about the observed current climate. A climate change scenario is the Greenhouse gases: Greenhouse gases are those difference between a climate scenario and the gaseous constituents of the atmosphere, both natural current climate. and anthropogenic, that absorb and emit radiation at specific wavelengths within the spectrum of Climate-resilient agriculture: Agriculture infrared radiation emitted by the Earth’s surface, the that sustainably increases productivity, resilience atmosphere and clouds. This property causes the (adaptation), reduces/removes greenhouse gases greenhouse effect. Water vapour (H2O), carbon dioxide (mitigation), and enhances achievement of national (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4) and ozone food security and development goals. Also referred to (O3) are the primary greenhouse gases in the Earth’s as climate- resilient agriculture. atmosphere.

Climate system: The climate system is the highly Integrated assessment: A method of analysis complex system consisting of five major components: that combines results and models from the physical, the atmosphere, the hydrosphere, the cryosphere, the biological, economic and social sciences and the land surface and the biosphere, and the interactions interactions between these components, in a between them. consistent framework, to evaluate the status and the Climate variability: Variations in the mean state consequences of environmental change and the and other climate statistics (standard deviations, policy responses to it. the occurrence of extremes, etc.) on all temporal Land use: The total of arrangements, activities and and spatial scales beyond those of individual inputs undertaken in a certain land cover type (a set of weather events. Variability may result from natural human actions). The social and economic purposes for internal processes within the climate system which land is managed (e.g., grazing, timber extraction (internal variability) or from variations in natural or and conservation). anthropogenic external forces (external variability). Land use change: A change in the use or Conservation agriculture: A concept for resource- management of land by humans, which may lead to a saving agricultural crop production that strives to change in land cover. achieve acceptable profits together with high and sustained production levels while concurrently Low-carbon economy: Refers to an economy that conserving the environment. has a minimal output of greenhouse gas emissions into the biosphere. Desertification:Land degradation in arid, semi-arid, and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors, Low-carbon development: Low-carbon including climatic variations and human activities. The development is generally used to describe forward- United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification looking national economic development plans or defines land degradation as a reduction or loss (in arid, strategies that encompass low-emission and/or semi-arid, and dry sub-humid areas) of the biological climate-resilient economic growth. ANNEXES 121

Resilience: Ability of a system to cope with or absorb Vulnerability: Degree to which people, property, stress or impacts and bounce back, recover and adapt resources, systems and cultural, economic, to change. environmental and social activity are susceptible to harm, degradation or destruction on being exposed to Uncertainty: An expression of the degree to which a hostile agent or factor. The Intergovernmental Panel a value (e.g., the future state of the climate system) on Climate Change defines it as the degree to which is unknown. Uncertainty can result from lack of a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, information or from disagreement about what is adverse effects of climate change, including climate known or even knowable. It may have many types variability and extremes. of sources, from quantifiable errors in the data to ambiguously defined concepts or terminology, or Water harvesting: A method for inducing, uncertain projections of human behaviour. collecting, storing and conserving local surface runoff for agriculture in arid and semi-arid regions. 122 NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK

Annex 3 Chapter Chapter 6 Coordinating lead author: Shrikant Jagtap Author Attributions Lead authors: Shrikant jagtap and Tunji Arokoya Chapter 1 Contributing authors: Eniaiyeju Damilola, Richard Nzekwu, Oloche Edache, Eugene Anakwe, Julie Authors: Jimmy Adegoke, Chidi Ibe, Adebisi Araba, Ukeje, Christopher Dawudu Yusuf Abubakar, Gordon Conway Chapter 7 Chapter 2 Coordinating lead author: Chidi Ibe Coordinating lead author: Jimmy Adegoke Lead authors: Jimmy Adegoke, Chinwe Ifejika Chapter lead authors: Shrikant Jagtap, David Speranza, Chris Shisanya, Gordon Conway, Sonja Jimoh, Chinwe Ifejika Speranza; Julie Ukeje, Vemeulen, Debisi Araba, Parcy Obatola, Foluke Anthony Anuforom Areola, Funmi Tsewinor, Michael Hoevel, Aisha Contributing authors: Foluke Areola, Chidi Ibe, Abdulkadir, Moise Akle Aisha Abdulkadir, Jibrin Jibrin Contributing authors: Raffaello Cergini, Marjorie- Chapter 3 Ann Bromhead, Francis Bisong, Segun Babarinde, Richard Nzekwu, Mustapha Msheila, Fashina- Coordinating lead author: David Okali Bombata, Harrison Ubong. Lead authors: David Okali, Luthando Dziba, Chapter 8 Dawuda Gowon, Parcy Obatola, Julie Ukeje and Anthony Anuforom Coordinating lead author: Anthony Nyong Contributing authors: Muyiwa Adesanya, Contributing authors: Jimmy Adegoke, Chris Mustapha Mshelia, Richard Nzekwu, Bashir Shisanya, Chidi Ibe, Raffaello Cervigni, Adebisi Magashi, Shrikant Jagtap, Foluke Areola, Francis Araba Bisong Chapter 4 Chapter 9 Coordinating lead authors: Chris Shisanya and Coordinating lead author: Elizabeth Rasekoala Chidi Ibe Contributing authors: Sonja Vermulen, Bruce Lead authors: Jimmy Adegoke, Muyiwa Adesanya, Campbell, Salisu Dandallah, Funmi Tsewinor, Anthony Nyong, Damilola Eniaiyeju, Adebisi Araba Foluke Areola, Parcy Obatola, David Okali, Dawuda Gowon, Asma Ibrahim, Abdulkareem Isah, Contributing authors: Segun Babarinde, Julie Mofoluso Fagbeja Ukeje, Anthony Anuforom Chapter 10 Chapter 5 Authors: Chidi Ibe, Jimmy Adegoke, Adebisi Araba,

Coordinating lead author: Sonja Vermeulen Yusuf Abubakar, Gordon Conway Lead authors: Yusuf Abubakar, Gordon Conway, The views expressed by the contributors are made in their Luthando Dziba, Michael Hoevel, Chidi Ibe, Asma personal capacities and do not engage the Institutions to Ibrahim, Julius Olokor, Chinwe Ifejika Speranza, Jimmy Adegoke which they are affiliated. Contributing authors: Adeyemi Ademiluyi, Hakeem Ajeigbe, Cheikh Mbow, Abdoulaye Saleh Moussa, Mathieu Ouedraogo, Joost Vervoort, Robert Zougmoré ANNEXES 123

Annex 4 ACARN Other regions Sir Gordon Conway (Agriculture for Impact, Membership Imperial College, UK) – Global Food Security; Global Sustainable Agriculture Nigeria Dr Shrikant Jagtab (Independent Consultant, India) Professor Jimmy Adegoke (Chair, University of – Climate Change; Seasonal Rainfall Prediction Missouri Kansas City, USA) – Climate Variability & Professor Charles Rice (Kansas State University, Change; Agro-Climatology USA) – Climate Change; Soil Microbiology; Professor Chidi Ibe (Co-Chair, Independent Grassland Ecosystems Consultant) – Climate Change; Coastal Ecosystems; International organizations Oceanography Dr Sonja Vermeulen (CGIAR Climate Change, Professor Yusuf Abubakar (Agricultural Research Agriculture & Food Security (CCAFS) Program) – Agency of Nigeria) - Breeding Technology; Climate Change Policy Development & Integration; Agricultural Research Management Natural Resource Management Dr Anthony Anuforom (Nigeria Meteorological Dr Raffaello Cervigni (World Bank) – Climate Agency) – Climate Change Policy & Administration Change Policy Dr Dauda Gowon (Independent Consultant) - Professor Antony Nyong (African Development Water Supply; Irrigation Agriculture Bank) – Climate Change Science, Policy & Professor David Okali (Emeritus Professor, Financing University of Ibadan) - Forestry & Sustainable Development Ex-officio members: Dr Elizabeth Adetoun Rasekoala (Independent Mr Damilola Eniaiyeju, Director, Agriculture Consultant)– Climate Change; Cultural & Gender Extension Services, FMARD Dimensions of Global Change; Monitoring & Mr Mustapha Mshelia, Director, Agriculture & Land Evaluation Resources, FMARD Professor Chinwe Ifejika Speranza (University Ms Foluke Areola, Ag. Director, Federal Department of Bern, Germany) – Agricultural Resilience, of Fisheries, FMARD Livelihood Security and Climate Adaptation Dr Adebisi Araba, Technical Adviser on Africa Environmental Policy to the Honourable Minister, FMARD Dr Moise Akle (Independent Consultant, Benin) – Hydro-Meteorology Dr Patsy Abhoweyere, NIOMR, FMARD Dr Luthando Dziba (CSIR, South Africa) – Mr Olumuyiwa Adesanya, Consultant on Rangeland Ecosystems & Resilience Science Environment & Climate Change, FMARD Professor Chris Shisanya (Kenyatta University, Ms Julie Ukeje, Nigeria Meteorological Agency Kenya) – Agro-Climatology; Water Resources (NIMET) Engr. Bashir Magashi, Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency (NHSA) Mr Segun Babarinde, Head, Climate Change Unit, Federal Ministry of Water Resources

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Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development 1, Capital Drive, FCDA Complex Garki, Area 11, Abuja, Nigeria www.fmard.gov.ng