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JOB #: EMBUS0002022 CD: MarcusKa INKS: CLIENT: Embraer AD: JasseniaRz Cyan, Magenta, Yellow, Black MEDIA: Magazine CW: DerrickYi FONTS: LIVE: 200 mm x 287 mm CM: KatiePz GT America (Compressed Bold, Medium) TRIM: 210 mm x 297 mm AB: LisaLe IMAGES: BLEED: 216 mm x 303 mm AP: EvaHr Embus_NZ_phs2_V2_4C.tif (CMYK; 299 ppi; 100.02%), Embraer_CCO_Tagline_W. PUBS: Line of Defence PM: N/A eps (98.6%) NOTES: October 2017 PR: Camilee DA: JodyMn QC: DarrylTt CONTENTS Welcome to the Spring 2017 issue of Line of Defence – our NZDIA Annual Forum special edition! We’re looking forward DEFENCE to Wellington on 10 and 11 October, and we hope to see you there. Copies of the magazine will be provided to all delegates free-of-charge, and we’ll be covering the major stories that emerge from the event. In this edition, we feature a number of proposed forum speakers, including interviews of Dr Joe Burton of Waikato University, who will be speaking on cyber security and cyber warfare, and Claire Negus, who will be sharing her lessons learnt from managing contracts for some of the region’s biggest infrastructure mega projects. We also cover a recent presentation by Chief Joint Defence Services Charlie Lott, with insights into his thoughts on Defence-Industry 6 USA Partnership Pavilion at Pacific 2017 partnership. 8 C-130J: Multi-mission master Also in Defence, we profile the Lockheed Martin C-130J; we gain a window onto the heady journey of Hamilton- 10 Cyber Warfare: Offence, Defence and Deterrence based electronics company Loop Technologies from defence 12 The US lowers cost of military systems supplier debutante to successful military obsolescence development through COTS specialist; and we get an introduction to the benefits of commercial-off-the-shelf electronics in rugged military 15 New Defence Auckland Business Hub computer systems from Unitronix. opens its doors We also call in to the recently launched Defence 16 Loop Technologies: beyond technological Auckland Business Hub and meet newly appointed Defence obsolescence Relationship Manager Auckland GPCAPT Glenn Gowthorpe who’s been taking a leading role in resolving the fuel 18 Forecast: The transformation of in-service pipeline disruption that’s gripped Auckland in recent weeks. support over the next decade Dr Wayne Mapp again headlines the International 20 A new framework for Defence – Security Section with a look through the hyperbolic white Industry partnerships noise of US-DPRK relations to assess North Korea’s ballistic missile ambitions. This issue also sees the return of Dr Peter 22 Contracting strategy in a Mega Project Greener to Line of Defence with two timely reports focusing environment on recent NZDF relationship building and maritime patrol operations in the South Pacific. 25 NZDF Invictus Games Team Soars In Homeland Security, Dr John Battersby of Massey 26 Operation Pipeline: Fuel disruption response University shows up New Zealand’s antiquated terror role for new NZDF Defence Relationship Manager legislation and analyses terrorism’s present and future. We also critique Australia’s recently released Strategy for 28 Defence News Protecting Crowded Places from Terrorism and consider its applicability to the New Zealand context. Lastly, this month we are delighted to be reviewing the CONTRIBUTORS & INTERVIEWEES just-published book by University of Canterbury Professor Rich Johnson Graham Lintott Mike Kelley Anne-Marie Brady, China as a Polar Great Power, which deftly Joe Burton Tim Marshall Deb Howarth assesses the polar strategic ambitions of a rising China. Roger Hurst Evan Butler-Jones Claire Negus I’d like to take this opportunity to thank Massey Glenn Gowthorpe Wayne Mapp Peter Greener University’s Centre for Defence and Security Studies for John Battersby Nicholas Dynon Kyle Hutzler delivering the extremely worthwhile 4-day Pacific Security Bridgette Sullivan-Taylor Carlton Ruffell Lincoln Dynamics course in September. Mark Lanteigne, Anna Potter Powles and Centre director Rouben Azizian convened a course that challenged participants to rethink New Zealand’s security and our place in the region. I hope the Centre will run more of these, and I recommend the course to anyone ASSOCIATIONS looking to enhance and update their regional security skillset.

See you at the Forum!

Nick Dynon Auckland

4 Line of Defence ISSN 2463-5774 (Print) • ISSN 2463-6258 (Online) INTERNATIONAL SECURITY HOMELAND SECURITY

29 International News 36 New Zealand and Terrorism: The case for new legislation 30 Is North Korea actually a serous threat to peace? 38 What’s the future for terrorism? 32 Partners in the Pacific: NZDF operations support sustainable fisheries 40 Protecting crowded places from terror attack 34 Royal New Zealand Navy hosts South West Pacif- 43 Homeland News ic Regional Initiative

REVIEWS & EVENTS UPCOMING ISSUE 44 Review: China as a Summer 2017 Polar Great Power 46 Upcoming events Maritime domain, sustainment, NZDIA Annual Forum wrap-up, C4i, China’s rise

CONTACT DETAILS Managing Editor: Find us online www.defsecmedia.co.nz or Nick Dynon M: +64 (0)22 366 3691 www.linkedin.com/company/ E: [email protected] defsec-media-limited

Publisher: Craig Flint www.facebook.com/defsecmedia/ T: +64 (07) 868 2703 E: [email protected] www.twitter.com/DefsecNZ Postal and delivery address: 27 West Cresent Te Puru 3575, Thames RD5 New Zealand

Copyright: No article or part thereof may be reproduced without prior consent of the publisher. Disclaimer: The information contained in this publication is given in good faith and has been derived from sources believed to be reliable and accurate. However, neither the publishers nor any person involved in the preparation of this publication accept any form of liability whatsoever for its contents including advertisements, editorials, opinions, advice or information or for any consequences from its use.

Line of Defence 5 DEFENCE

USA Partnership Pavilion at Pacific 2017

US companies competing for naval defence business in Australia, New Zealand and across the Asia-Pacific region will look to strengthen trade, innovation and workforce partnerships with buyers and influencers attending the Pacific 2017 in Sydney from 3rd to 5th October. The biennial showcase, is expected to host around 500 exhibitors from more than 20 countries, and upwards of 15,000 trade visitors, including official delegations representing up to 60 nations. From the US will be a wide range of technologies, equipment and services from a diverse cross-section of leading manufacturers and suppliers, including Boeing Defence Australia, General Atomics Electromagnetic Systems, Harris Corp, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and Raytheon. The centerpiece of the American presence at Pacific 2017 is the new 1,000 sqm ‘USA Partnership Pavilion’, organised by export marketing advocate Kallman Worldwide, Inc. in coordination with several US government agencies. This is the fifth time Kallman has attended Pacific as the show’s official US representative, and its first under the new ‘USA Partnership Pavilion’ banner. “The USA Partnership Pavilion at Pacific 2017 is an GE LM2500 Marine Gas Turbine will feature at Pacific 2017 invitation to cooperation from American suppliers to buyers in Australia, New Zealand and the entire Asia-Indo-Pacific maritime and naval defense industries, but that’s no guarantee region,” Tom Kallman, president and CEO of Kallman buyers will look to work with American companies over Worldwide, told Line of Defence. others,” said Kallman. “As the organiser of the USA According to Kallman, the new pavilion reflects a global Partnership Pavilion, we have a responsibility to advocate trend. “Now more than ever, success in international trade not only for our exhibitors, but for our nation in this highly depends on partnership and teamwork,” said Kallman, “… the competitive regional marketplace. new USA Partnership Pavilion sharpens our focus on helping “We want every show visitor to ‘Ask America,’ and to be advance America’s national interests by serving the needs of confident that we are listening,” he said. “The United States our international customers. is committed to international trade and investment, we bring “Many of our exhibitors — from publicly traded stalwarts smart technologies and ideas to the table and we have the to small- and medium-sized enterprises [SMEs] with fewer most skilled professionals ready to do the work.” than 500 employees — already have significant business In an article earlier this year in the magazine Exhibition partnerships and operations in the Asia-Pacific region, World, Kallman wrote “National pavilions are a patriotic particularly in Australia. In the years to come, many more expression of collective industry pride, presented in the spirit will.” of global partnership.” But, he continued, they also serve Kallman will also promote exhibitors with its “Ask a practical purpose. “They give participating exhibitors – America” on-site advocacy campaign at Pacific 2017. especially first-time and small and medium-sized enterprises The message will be placed prominently around the USA (SMEs) – instant equity and scale.” Partnership Pavilion, integrated into hospitality and VIP At the 2017 Paris Air Show, organisers reported that more events during the show, advertised in show daily publications than 1,300 exhibitors – or 55 percent – exhibited in a national and highlighted in social media. pavilion. Collaborative national pavilions, it appears, are “The United States is a prominent international exhibitor increasingly being seen as focal points and force multipliers for at Pacific 2017 because it’s a world leader in the commercial exhibitors looking for exposure in numbers.

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C-130J: Multi-mission master

In this profile of the C-130J, senior Lockheed Martin figures provide their perspectives on this latest iteration of the world’s most iconic tactical airlift platform and what it offers in the New Zealand context.

Previous issues of Line of Defence Magazine have carried several articles discussing what platforms might end up constituting the air domain capabilities identified in the 2016 Defence Capability Plan. Ubiquitous amongst these has been the Lockheed Martin C-130J Super Hercules. Dominating the air domain in the Plan are the future air mobility capability and future air surveillance capability. While the former is required to support independent operations, New Zealand’s Antarctic program, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief responses, search and rescue tasks and coalition operations, the latter must meet “the increased surveillance demand within New Zealand’s maritime domain” while also contributing to coalition operations. This is a diverse set of requirements “You might think it looks the budget, do you buy a separate fleet of for a small air force. Reliability and same, but it’s been totally modernised, aircraft to perform air mobility and flexibility of potential fleets are key, including full automation in the back surveillance functions, or can you do given that they will be expected to wear of the airplane,” MAJGEN (ret’d) Rich both with one fleet? With the C-130J, many mission hats as part of a lean, Johnston (USAF), Lockheed Martin’s one fleet can do both the C-130 role and mean organisation. vice president, Business Development the P-3 role.” As a contender to replace New (Air Mobility & Maritime Missions) Rich Johnston agrees, pointing to the Zealand’s ageing airlift force, the told Line of Defence. “The front end SC-130J Sea Hercules, a maritime patrol C-130J claims unprecedented multi- is state-of-the-art and as modern as any version of the C-130J designed for mission credentials and an unmatched other airplane. The Head-Up Display coastal surveillance and anti-submarine operational history. Although it shares for each pilot, for example, makes it warfare. “With the Sea Herc you’re a basic airframe similar to that of the much safer to fly, and communications looking at a P-3 type aircraft at the C-130H aircraft currently in RNZAF between crew members are better.” higher end,” he said, “and as its bread- service, it appears that the similarities are and-butter an aircraft capable of coast largely skin deep. Multi-mission specialist guard type missions, surveillance of By comparative numbers, the C-130J According to AVM (ret’d) Graham fisheries and search and rescue.” has 40% greater range, 21% higher Lintott, Former Chief of Air Force Mike Kelley, Lockheed Martin maximum speed and 41% shorter take- and Lockheed Martin New Zealand’s Aeronautics’ international senior off distance than its predecessor. It has managing director (Strategy & Business director (South East Asia/Oceana a 40% increase in cargo volume and Development), the C-130 potentially Business Development), comments that requires two less crew compared to what provides an all-in-one airlift and the Sea Herc does not compromise the New Zealand is flying now. surveillance solution. “With a finite cargo/passenger capacity of the C-130J.

8 Line of Defence “This means that for cyclone relief tasks in a hurry, it’s like being in an elevator.” The obvious advantage of the in the Pacific, for example, you can have As such, the C-130J retains the RNZAF moving from its existing a cargo load full of relief supplies and C-130 tactical airlift specialisation for C-130H fleet to the C-130J is that the equipment and land on a coral strip.” short and austere runways and airfields facilities required to maintain the aircraft “The beauty of the SC-130J concept in mountainous terrain. will not require changing. In terms of is that you can either have them purpose Quizzed about the performance of maintenance, 60% of parts remain the built and permanently configured for the the turboprop relative to jet engines, he same, and training will likely be relatively role or you can have different modules,” comments that the turbo prop engine straight forward in comparison to an says Graham, “so when you need to is extremely efficient at low altitudes, entirely distinct platform. do an ASW [anti-submarine warfare] providing a particularly stable platform “Importantly, the RNZAF’s long mission, for example, you can roll the that burns less fuel, with a much longer history in C130 tactics, techniques and ASW module on and off the back of loiter time. procedures is not lost,” comments Rich. the aircraft. When you don’t need it, “These aircraft will potentially “C-130H crew members will appreciate you can remove it and it reverts to need to operate from Antarctica to the the backbone and history of Lockheed cargo or whatever the aircraft has been equator and to warzones in Afghanistan Martin and the C-130.” configured for. and Iraq,” he says. “Having dealt with But what of the future for an aircraft Roll-on/roll-off systems allow C-130Hs over the years, all I can say is that has essentially been in production one airframe to be utilised to cover a that the C-130J is reliable in all those since the late 1950s? “People worry broader mission set, thus increasing missions and in the mission operating about how long the aircraft will be in fleet utilisation and reducing overall environments it has faced in the 18 years production and for how long it will be costs. The C-130J provides roll-on/ it’s been in service.” serviced,” acknowledges Graham, “but roll-off capabilities for air mobility, anti- “At the end of the day, am I flying a we have a backlog of around 70 orders, subsurface warfare, armed response and plane that can simply ferry lots of cargo so the production line will go to at least ISR/MSA. long distances, or can I do the wide 2030 and beyond.” range of various missions reliably and “Lockheed Martin has an excellent Reliability when it counts safely?” track record of supporting its products. The tactical airlifter is powered by four The fact that C-130s and P-3s have been Rolls-Royce AE 2100D3 turboprops, Low risk option in service and serviced by Lockheed with each engine developing 4,637 But it’s not just in the air where a future Martin for over 50 years is a compelling shp. “Anywhere you land on a semi- or airlift capability will need to prove its indicator.” unprepared airfield you need 100%, worth, with whole-of-life costs a large A total of 68 countries operate and the turboprop engine has instant – and now more heavily scrutinised – C-130s, and currently the C-130J boasts power,” says Rich. “If you are in a component of major capability project 17 government and one commercial situation where you need a lot of power consideration. operator.

Line of Defence 9 DEFENCE Cyber Warfare: Offence, Defence and Deterrence Joe Burton, senior lecturer in political science and public policy at Waikato University, will be presenting on cyber warfare at the upcoming NZDIA Defence, Industry & National Security Forum. We ask him about how New Zealand is positioned in relation to cyber warfare and find that among the challenges there are opportunities.

In his presentation abstract, Dr Burton Dr Burton, who is also a member Former NATO Secretary General remarks that although cyber warfare has of Waikato University’s New Zealand Anders Fogh Rasmussen referred to become an increasingly salient feature of Institute for Security and Crime Science, cyberattacks against NATO networks the international security environment, has worked at the highest levels of as a form of permanent low-level there is still a tendency to conflate professional politics as a ministerial warfare, but I think this type of the term with other aspects of cyber advisor in New Zealand and the UK, activity is better categorised as security and to misunderstand the nature national campaign coordinator and espionage or maybe subversion. The of cyberattacks in the military sphere. political organiser. overuse of the term cyber warfare He aims to provide some clarity. With a PhD in international relations creates fear that may be used to justify Outlining the core features of cyber and having worked within the corridors excessive controls of the internet and warfare, and how the concept and of political power, Dr Burton is not may contribute to the militarisation of practice of cyber warfare has evolved the typical cyber security commentator. cyberspace. over the last decade, his talk will cover His background reflects the notion that aspects of cyber defence, the pros and cyber security is an international security LoD: Would it be correct to say that New cons of developing offensive cyber issue with drivers and implications well Zealand lags well behind its strategic security capabilities in the military beyond the domain of information partners in terms of cyber warfare sector, and the very significant problems technologists. capability? If this is so, is the investment associated with creating effective cyber This places him in an analytically for Defence cyber protection earmarked deterrence. potent position. An understanding of in the most recent Defence White Paper the evolving cyber threat landscape and Capability Plan enough? – and future cyberwar battlespace – logically requires a comprehensive JB: Maybe five years ago you could say knowledge of the strategic relations New Zealand was a weak link, but not between nations and the nature and anymore. Our military are investing motivations of non-state actors looking significant resources in this area and to weaponise cyberspace. this is taking place in the context of a whole of government effort in cyber LoD: You mentioned in your abstract that security. there exists a tendency to conflate the We have a national cyber security term with other aspects of cyber security centre, a cyber policy unit in DPMC, and to misunderstand the nature of a second version of a national cyber cyberattacks in the military sphere. Can security strategy, a new national you elaborate on what you mean by this? Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT), reformed intelligence agencies JB: There are many examples in and an increased awareness across popular media and even by our foreign government of the nature of the cyber policy leaders and statesman that threat. refer to cyberattacks as cyber warfare We do need to develop new Dr Joe Burton is senior lecturer in Waikato when in fact the attacks don’t meet military doctrines around the use University’s political science and public policy programmes. He researches regional that threshold. Cybercrime is not the of cyber capabilities, but that is responses to global security challenges, same as cyber warfare and nor is cyber something all countries are needing to NATO and its partners, US foreign and espionage – both are based on the theft do simultaneously. The government’s security policy, cyber security, and the impact of information but don’t involve the use allocation of resources to the NZDF for of science and technology on international of military force and may lack political cyber capabilities is significant – let’s see security. motivations. what comes of it.

10 Line of Defence LoD: Is the capability first and to use digital forensics to identify cyber capabilities (including being a foremost about the ability to maintain the source of an attack, but foreign greater target for hackers) and consider interoperability with international governments will still deny involvement any unintended consequences. partners that the NZDF deploys with – and be reluctant to help prosecute so that New Zealand does not become a hackers that may be associated with LoD: Given New Zealand’s strong cyber ‘weak link’ within a multinational those governments. support of international institutions and deployment? The question of whether New a rules-based order, should New Zealand Zealand should develop offensive cyber be taking a more proactive stance JB: Operational cyber security is of capabilities is a wider one, but very around the development of international paramount importance to New Zealand important. There are reasons why an cyber warfare norms and legislation? military deployments. We need to make offensive capability might give New sure our communications networks Zealand an asymmetric advantage over JB: We have limited diplomatic and systems are secure from cyber larger, more powerful states. resources but I’d like to see a greater intrusion. Failing to do so could involve There may also be circumstances and more focused international effort in a loss of life, especially when we are where the use of offensive cyber this area. We had a golden opportunity deployed in danger zones like Iraq or capabilities can be used for force at the United Nations recently to put Afghanistan. protection – stopping hackers that pose cyber security on the UNSC agenda but Almost invariably we deploy in threats to our military personnel and decided to focus on other things. multilateral contexts, working with our assets seems like a reasonable thing to My sense is that cyber should be security partners. If our systems are not contemplate. higher in the hierarchy of priorities for secure then that creates vulnerabilities Perhaps the most compelling reason our diplomats. I just took a team to for them. So yes, there is an obligation I’ve heard for the development of the ‘cyber 9/12’ student challenge in on our part to invest in this area. offensive cyber tools is that they might Australia, where I heard their new Cyber make violence less necessary. If you Ambassador, Tobias Feakin, talk. We LoD: As a small state with limited can destroy an adversary’s anti-aircraft could create a similar position here in physical offensive capabilities, would capabilities through cyberattacks rather New Zealand. New Zealand actually benefit from an than having to use bombs and guns, We have a history in New Zealand offensive cyber warfare capability, even that is a safer and less costly modus of being very active in disarmament, if the attribution problem was solved? operandi. However, the development and there may be a compelling of offensive cyber tools presents real international case to prohibit or regulate JB: The attribution problem is dangers too. the development of cyber weapons. If unlikely to ever be completely solved, The militarisation of cyber space, we can de-nuclearise the South Pacific especially as more advanced encryption costly arms races, security dilemmas, or prohibit the weaponisation of outer technologies come online. Hackers will collateral damage, and escalation space, then why not the militarisation of find new ways to cloak their activities. pressure are all very serious concerns. cyberspace? I hope our government will There is also a political and legal We need to think carefully about the think as hard about cyber peace as they attribution issue - it may be possible wider implications of having offensive do about cyber war.

Line of Defence 11 DEFENCE The US lowers cost of military systems development through COTS

Tim Marshall, Engineer/Sales Manager for rugged computing systems provider Unitronix writes that military commercial-off-the-shelf electronics are delivering cost-effective solutions and supporting innovation in new capabilities.

Around the globe, regional military organisations are increasingly seeking more cost-effective and affordable electronic systems that can be supplied in ever shortening delivery schedules. Radio Long adopted in the US, a proven model for lowering costs and speeding Camera the deployment of advanced solutions is commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) electronics. The use of COTS electronics has also improved interoperability and the easing of system upgrades through the use of open standards and well-defined technology roadmaps. Military system developers in Australia and New Zealand can look to the US aerospace and defence industry’s successful use of COTS electronics as building blocks for critical rugged systems.

COTS for Rugged Systems In doing so, they unlocked a new Meeting Defence requirements For over twenty years the US world of widely used, fully tested and In the past, some International Department of Defense (DoD) has field qualified open standards and open Defence Integrators, while interested proven that using COTS electronics architecture products that deliver access in leveraging the benefits of the COTS in rugged systems deployed in harsh to the highest performance electronics model, were hesitant because of battlefield environments, such as available while also providing a clear concerns over International Traffic in Mission Computers, Radar, EW/ISR and faster roadmap to tomorrow’s Arms Regulations (ITAR) restrictions. and Network Switches, will lower the technologies. Today, however, there are leading cost of ownership while speeding their In the US, over the last two decades COTS suppliers with a well-established development and deployment. in program after program, it’s been European presence that manufacture The old approach of developing conclusively proven that the use of ITAR-free products or that are not rugged defence systems – using custom COTS building blocks lowers the costs subject to potential ITAR restrictions. designs and proprietary technologies – no and speeds the delivery of innovative While the use of COTS hardware longer makes economic sense. US system solutions to the warfighter. The weight reduces costs and program risks it integrators have found that custom designs of evidence more than suggests that also protects the in-country system cost significantly more and take longer to those tasked with managing military integrator’s added value content. Any field, and have turned to COTS solutions platform budgets should take a look required integration, application and as an alternative to custom solutions that at what COTS can do for their critical system level development needed to lock them into a single supplier. programs. modify a COTS-based platform (to meet

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LOD full page V2.indd 1 30/08/2017 08:24 DEFENCE specific end-user needs), can still be VPX module and system architectures This allows developers to focus on performed in-country. have become the de facto standards for their own core competitive strengths in Another important and growing building US military systems. integration and software capabilities. At a trend in military system development time when funding – especially for R&D is the reduced timeframes in which Military COTS not commercial – is under pressure, the use of COTS working solutions need to be The term “COTS” as it is used here building blocks enables system designers demonstrated to the customer. does not refer to system components to spend more of their limited resources In the US, the DoD has made developed for use by the commercial on developing new capabilities. a major shift toward a “show me” market. In contrast, military COTS mentality. As budgets for research products are specifically developed by Software-driven innovation and development projects shrink, the COTS vendors who focus on the defence Since Secretary Perry first launched DoD demands that systems integrators market. These vendors uniquely address the COTS initiative, an important shift demonstrate a working application based and solve the challenges that confront has taken place in relation to where on today’s technology as a candidate system designers who must build systems leaps in capability originate. Many solution, after which the final deployable and solutions able to perform optimally years ago, functionality came from system is implemented using next in harsh environments. hardware, but that’s no longer the case. generation technology. This approach, Design expertise is applied to Today, functionality is driven mainly called ‘spiral development’, is well packaging, cooling and device selection to by software innovations, such as the supported via the COTS model. ensure that COTS modules and systems complex FFT software algorithms used A related trend is the DoD’s desire will perform optimally when exposed to in advanced signal, radar, and image to acquire electronic solutions that have the extreme heat, vibration and shock processing applications. a provable high Technology Readiness conditions typically experienced by To support these software Level (TRL), meaning that the proposed military air, ground and naval platforms. applications, COTS vendors develop solution can be demonstrated and – Military COTS products differ from hardware modules and compact hopefully – has been pre-qualified and commercial products in their use of subsystems using today’s most powerful validated through prior deployment. The specialised packaging and advanced microprocessors, FPGA and GPGPU COTS electronics approach is ideal for thermal management technologies devices. This enables the defence supporting requirements for tried and to support the extremely long life industry to focus on the areas where trusted technology. of military platforms, while making investment in innovation will have it possible for them to use the latest the greatest impact, the high value- A new standard cutting-edge electronics technology, such add innovations that enable them to The historic move away from costly as Intel Xeon processors, FPGA, and differentiate themselves from their bespoke system designs and towards the GPGPU devices. competition. widespread use of COTS electronics and Additionally, military COTS Today, COTS VME and VPX-based open architectures was first driven by a subsystems uniquely address the size, processors, network switches, and 1994 memo by former US Secretary of weight and power constraints that graphics modules form the backbone of Defence William Perry. make it difficult to add new capabilities US military hardware infrastructure. Secretary Perry’s memo directed the onboard increasingly space-limited The advantages are indisputable. It DoD to use COTS products whenever vehicles, such as tanks, helicopters and makes far more sense, for example, for and wherever possible, and over the unmanned aircraft. EW and radar system designers to invest last two decades the DoD has made the their energies on the ‘hard’ part of the COTS approach a contractual mandate. Freeing the OEM system solution, rather than spending Helping to make the COTS approach Importantly, the use of COTS their time developing an Intel processor a success was the development of building blocks speeds innovation in module that they can easily and cost- a strong ecosystem of competing new military capabilities by freeing effectively acquire from any number electronics hardware vendors. These the system developer from having to of reliable COTS suppliers. System vendors, working together in trade design, build and qualify their solution’s designers also reduce their program risk organisations, such as VITA, alongside basic hardware infrastructure. Instead, with COTS hardware that is already participants from prime defence processing hardware can be acquired, far developed, proven and pre-qualified. contractors and government agencies, more rapidly and cost-effectively, from The end result is the faster delivery have continually defined, improved, vendors who have developed unique and of new advanced capabilities to the and fostered the use of today’s leading extensive expertise in ruggedising and warfighter in the battlefield. Helping to COTS hardware and electrical standards. packaging state-of-the-art commercial drive innovation, the COTS approach These standards, such as the technologies. also makes it easier for OEMs to VMEbus, and its more rugged and higher Leading COTS vendors have put in leverage the next wave of emerging performance successor, VPX, define and place sophisticated and mature services technologies, such as Artificial update the most widely used hardware to mitigate the risks of obsolescence, Intelligence, Deep Learning, Cognitive module form factors, connectors and enabling COTS electronics to effectively EW, machine learning, 3D displays and electrical interfaces for building today’s support the extremely long life of most augmented reality, and thus be ready for military systems. Today, the VMEbus and military platforms. the battlefield of tomorrow.

14 Line of Defence New Defence Auckland Business Hub opens its doors

The Defence Auckland Business Hub opened its doors in September, providing Defence with a crucial foot on the ground in Central Auckland.

Situated in the CBD, the NZDF Auckland Business Hub is now home to a number of NZDF personnel with industry-facing roles, including Director Industry Engagement, Director Estate and Infrastructure, and the new Defence Relationship Manager Auckland. According to Debbie Howarth, NZDF Director Industry Engagement, the location of the new premises is crucial. “It’s all about building partnerships with people and business in surrounding areas, and now we’re much closer to our partners.” “It’s also a positive thing for people to be seeing our military in the CBD,” she added. Newly appointed NZDF Defence Relationship Manager Auckland Group Captain Glenn Gowthorpe agrees. The new Defence Business Hub in Auckland “The Defence Business Hub is a ‘shop front’ of sorts for the NZDF,” “We are bringing ourselves out from attended by over 100 members of he told Line of Defence. “It’s about ‘behind the wire’ at our camps and bases, the NZDIA following an Assocation bringing down the barriers and making making it easier to engage, partner and members’ meeting at Viaduct the relationships, which the NZDF deliver, both with industry and external Harbour. It was an opportunity to Framework for External and Industry partners – as a Force for New Zealand.” raise awareness of the Hub among Engagement describes in detail.” “There is a lot of reciprocity around the business community. meetings with external parties,” Debbie According to Deb, important to the noted, “so having something in town is Hub is the philosophy of leaving rank at key to developing closer engagement.” the door. In essence, it is a collaboration Just a short stroll from the CBD, she space, free of the silos often found in expects that the hub will be a natural more traditional workplaces, and an stop for visiting international visitors accessible, attractive and inviting place and navies. for engagement in the heart of New Usage of the Hub has been steadily Zealand’s largest city. increasing since its launch, as both Adorning the walls of the space internal and external stakeholders have are the Defence ‘Engagement become aware of the new resource. Values’ of courage, commitment and Already, the Defence Industry comradeship; values that the Hub AdvisoryCouncil (DIAC), New Zealand seeks to exemplify. Defence Industry Association (NZDIA) Ultimately, the Hub’s arrival is and a range of other partners have met powerfully symbolic of Defence’s stated at the Hub. approach to industry engagement and its On 23 August, NZDF Chief acknowledgement of industry’s key role Deb Howarth, NZDF Director Industry Joint Defence Services Charlie Lott in maintaining a modern, credible and Engagement hosted a launch function at the venue capable Defence Force.

Line of Defence 15 DEFENCE Loop Technologies: beyond technological obsolescence Loop Technologies has seemingly come from nowhere to gain a high profile in New Zealand’s defence industry, having been a finalist in the Minister of Defence Awards for Excellence to Industry in 2016 and hosting a Prime Ministerial visit last April. Line of Defence caught up with director Roger Hurst to find out more about the Loop journey.

High value assets, such as telecommunications networks, large facilities and defence platforms are critically dependent on their electronics. When the electronics age and are no longer supported, it becomes a significant problem for the asset owner. Hamilton-based Loop Technologies solves this problem with its team of highly skilled and innovative technical experts. The company of 60 engineers, technicians and logistics specialists was originally the high technology repair centre for Spark until it was spun off in 1999. In 2011 it was purchased by current directors Ross Olifent and Roger Hurst. From repair centre beginnings, the But three years after becoming company repackaged its expertise and involved in Defence, and having processes to provide a wider range of reviewed their Defence strategy, Roger high value services to customers across and Ross were struck by the significant all stages of the equipment’s lifecycle. costs involved and their apparently While the company’s original insignificant progress. focus was on telecommunications, “At that stage we asked ourselves Loop’s customer base has expanded “Are were banging our heads against a substantially in the last five years, brick wall here?” We almost gave up at and now includes power companies, that point, but with our strategic hats emergency services, government on were sure that we had a solution to agencies and facility managers. Overseas what was a growing problem in defence equipment manufacturers also use Loop - obsolescence. We decided to give it to support equipment sold in New three more months.” Zealand, saving them the high costs of Existing approaches to obsolescence setting up infrastructure themselves. involved complete replacement and refit and there are significant costs associated Defence obsolescence with this. “Up to 10% of the Defence “We made the decision to offer our Force’s 600m operating budget, for services to Defence in 2012, and example, is related to obsolescence, so Roger Hurst is a director and co-owner of immediately joined the NZDIA, taking anything that can be done to reduce that Hamilton-based electronics company Loop advantage of its events to understand cost is of benefit,” said Roger. Technologies. An electronics engineer, he has the industry, to network and to exhibit,” “The old approach was to buy previously worked in quality management in Roger recalled. “This proved to be great equipment new until it became obsolete, the telecommunications and health sectors for making contacts, whom we followed and hopefully have enough spares, but and as a telecommunications design and up and met with regularly.” then one got to the point where their build manager.

16 Line of Defence spares were used up and there was no other option but to undertake a complete refit. Then we came along and said we’ve got a lot of skill in this area to refurbish, repair, re- engineer or remanufacture. “Our services reduce the cost because procurement doesn’t have to go out and buy new kit. It gives them the option of how long they want to keep it for rather than being dictated to by the age of the equipment.” One of the main advantages in treating obsolescence in this way is a delay in the capital spend. If the life of a piece of equipment can be prolonged for another five or ten years, then the replacement spend is delayed for the same period. Solutions for

Winning ways obsolete electronics Their three month gamble on obsolescence paid off. Within two months CAPT Andrew Brown (Director Programme Delivery, NZDF Capability Branch) introduced Loop to Babcock NZ, and they worked closely with Babcock to provide a solution for the un-supported tactical communications system in the RNZN’s Protector fleet. “We were delighted to be nominated by Babcock NZ for the Minister of Defence Award for Excellence to Industry, and to be a finalist in our category,” commented Roger. “It felt as though we had actually won the award! Working with Babcock and being nominated for the award was a very positive experience for our team, and has greatly assisted our profile within the industry.” Soon afterwards, Loop gained a project to redesign and manufacture spares for the Seasprite Simulator, and since then the company has completed a number of other projects to provide solutions for obsolete defence electronics. “Throughout this journey we have learned many lessons about the timeframes and complexities involved in working with defence, and how patience can pay off,” he said. “We have been particularly encouraged by Chief Joint Defence Services Charlie Lott, who saw a need for our services and encouraged us to keep working with Defence even when there appeared to be no progress.” In-country support for

In-country support suppliers to NZ Defence Initially seen as suppliers of solutions for obsolete electronics, Loop Technologies’ current challenge now is to make the defence and security markets aware of their broader range of our value-add services, including their in-country support business for suppliers to NZ Defence. “What might typically happen is if a supplier sells some kind of electronics technology to the NZDF, the NZDF may ask ‘how are you going to support us in country?’, it means that organisation may need to set up a workshop here or in Australia that provides a level of responsiveness that the NZDF requires. “Our solution is that we are already here with our depth and spread of electronic expertise and tens of millions of dollars-worth of equipment that’s used for testing or helping setting up equipment that’s sold to the NZDF. So it’s a big saving for an organisation doing the selling and not having to set up themselves.” As a 60-person organisation that has been supporting electronics right since its beginnings in the 1990s, Loop is in a compelling position to deliver savings and improve customer service for overseas manufacturers selling into New Zealand. [email protected]

Line of Defence 17 DEFENCE Forecast: The transformation of in-service support over the next decade Military assets and equipment are getting more complex, but for some roles they are actually becoming much simpler, while delivery and support is increasingly globalised and will continue to be so. Evan Butler-Jones, Director, Defence Product Line, Aviation & Defence Business Unit at IFS, looks at five changes set to transform the in-service support model over the next decade.

Introducing a new asset into a defence of today’s fighter platforms, such as the technical equipment involves a simple force used to be simple. Manufacturers F-35 joint strike fighter, Eurofighter ‘acquire, buy spares and maintain’ made equipment, the military bought Typhoon and Saab JAS 39 Gripen. support model. it, maintained it and, when it became Alongside this, the global maintenance In-service support providers should obsolete, they invested in a new asset. support market will reach NZD 37.4bn gear up for both approaches, or face Today, many defence forces don’t by 2026 as military aviation fleets grow to losing out on missed opportunities and maintain their own equipment. OEMs or over 40,000 aircraft in the next ten years. lucrative contracts. third-party contractors are maintaining In the next decade, we will witness equipment via servitisation-based five major changes in the type of 2. Land, Sea and Air Drone agreements and asset delivery. Support in-service support given to military proliferation has become a complex portfolio organisations The question is, do defence forces need involving military organisations, OEMs, to invest in expensive and complex contractors and third-party providers all 1. More global delivery, but varied equipment anymore? Drones and trying to deliver a single, operationally- complexity unmanned aerial vehicles, for example, focused outcome. Procurement of key assets has changed. are starting to revolutionise the logistics Equipment is also growing in Defence forces have gone from a model footprint of military forces. complexity and scale - just look at some where a country would manufacture its Drones come in many flavours— own jet, to having nations and prime from hand-launched flyers and remote- contractors collaborate and develop an controlled rovers to complex multirole aircraft (the Eurofighter Typhoon), to fighter jets. Likewise, the acquisition a global OEM manufacturing a jet and and in-service-support models for delivering it worldwide (the F-35). these are likely to vary. On one hand, But as the trend towards amalgamated some drones are valuable and remain and advanced equipment continues, a in service long enough to require a void is being created at the lower end of maintenance and support strategy similar the market, which suppliers are jumping to traditional assets. On the other hand, to fill. The highly capable Textron certain drones are low-priced and require Scorpion for example – designed for no maintenance, so supporting them basic surveillance and reconnaissance becomes a much simpler ‘logistics and missions – costs £15m (NZD 28m) and spares’ issue. has an advertised cost per flight hour of Efficiency savings can be made by just over £2,000 (NZD 3,740). making use of equipment that is cheaper, However, the support models more versatile and doesn’t involve Evan Butler-Jones is Director, Defence for these two lines of equipment are sending soldiers onto the frontline. In late Product Line, Aviation & Defence Business completely different. The logistics 2016, the British Royal Navy launched Unit at IFS, a leading vendor of enterprise support systems on modern military jets a full-scale exercise made up entirely of asset management (EAM) software to the must span a global network of players unmanned equipment—nine different global aerospace and defence sector. involved in the total lifecycle of the assets were flying, driving and sailing His technology background includes aircraft, from OEMs and suppliers to while interacting with each other. enterprise software, additive manufacturing, maintenance activities and customer Sending a defence force forward robotics and materials testing. support. On the other hand, less requires maintenance expertise close

18 Line of Defence to the area of operation. Maintenance technology has the potential to provide 5. IT as a strategic enabler, not a personnel need transport, food, shelter a 100 percent verifiable and traceable transactional tool and protection, quickly creating a large history of an asset’s lifecycle in real-time. In defence acquisitions, IT support logistics footprint. Adding low-cost This is particularly important for assets for complex assets is sometimes drones to this mix drastically changes the managed through a multi-organisation an afterthought when it should concept of operations, with an equally support chain with the complex be a priority. Examples across the significant impact on forward supply accountability contracts we see in modern commercial transport and energy chains. acquisition programmes. sectors, which also involve complex assets with global supply chains, have 3. The rising demand to manage 4. Globalisation changing proved that strategic implementation through-life support costs government relationships of IT is critical to operational success. The increasing dependence of modern Defence budgets as a percentage of But defence spending is a divisive defence organisations on suppliers to GDP in the West have been shrinking public issue. A recent Sputnik survey generate military capability requires in recent years, while new markets found citizens in Germany, France, acquisitions and through-life support and opportunities are being found in Italy and the UK are polarised on contracts to be carefully structured. At maturing defence forces in the Middle whether their countries should meet the same time, harmonious relationships and Far East. the NATO recommended GDP between buyers and suppliers must be To quote a recent PwC report: spend of 2 percent. High-profile developed and maintained. “Defence ministries are relaxing foreign defence IT projects receive public The current procurement process - direct investment constraints and asking scrutiny—the results of an ineffective with collaborative focus on risk sharing defence contractors from outside their integration can include huge costs. but not necessarily cost-reduction - isn’t borders for commitments to their A change of IT support models sustainable in the long-term. Those countries that go well beyond traditional has the potential to deliver greater responsible for the command of these short-term, relatively mild offset efficiencies to equipment throughout public/private support networks need a agreements. Ministries now want broad- entire asset-lifecycles. Around 20 better way to manage through-life costs based, explicit, and often extensive skills percent of the cost of operating a to support major asset logistics. and knowledge transfer to build up their military jet throughout its lifecycle is Support systems that provide own industrial and military capabilities in procurement—IT-support can focus a holistic view of an asset’s health, and diversify their economies.” on making the remaining 80 percent availability and supply chain, rather than Working closely across geographies much more efficient. fragmented information from multiple requires an improved relationship In the eyes of in-service support sources, are needed. In order to achieve between the OEM and local contractor providers, IT needs to be elevated from this, information needs to be shared or military organisation. OEMs need being a transactional tool to a strategic across buyer, supplier and maintainer an understanding of security and enabler and help military, contractors and partnerships, which often contain governance issues country-by-country suppliers function more efficiently. organisations from multiple countries. as well as political transitions which Those who don’t adapt to unlock the Blockchain is one of several may affect defence policy. The social potential of the above five developments technologies that could have a serious payback of defence spending must also risk compromising operational impact on this cross-organisational be considered, with differing public effectiveness, mission success and even visibility. Although new and relatively attitudes on military expenditure in every personnel safety as the market shifts in untested in the defence environment, the geography. the next decade.

Line of Defence 19 DEFENCE

A new framework for Defence – Industry partnerships

NZDF Chief Joint Defence Services Charlie Lott spoke at a 23 August New Zealand Defence Industry Association members meeting in Auckland about managing Defence-Industry relationships and the NZDF Framework for External & Industry Engagement.

By all accounts, Defence has come a According to Charlie, it was It’s about ensuring value for money long way in a short time in terms of in the wake of 2015 Government both at the procurement stage and in engaging positively and confidently directives to increase performance, terms of looking for efficiencies in with industry, in adopting supplier add value and define results, create ongoing contract management. relationship management principles and an environment for New Zealand “We have 9,000 contracts, and the in removing the traditional ‘master-slave’ businesses to succeed, and account for administrative burden of managing approach to contracts. cost savings over whole of life, that these is awesome. It’s driving costs in my the NZDF started looking at total cost business, and I’m wanting cost cutting. of ownership through life rather than What I am looking for are fewer, more just the initial purchase. capable suppliers, and we’re starting to The government introduced see that among in the membership of risk-based rather than rules-based the NZDIA. government rules of procurement, and “So, what do I mean by value for as with other government agencies, money? It’s the best available outcome Defence now operates in accordance for money spent in procuring NZDF’s with the five procurement principles of products. It’s not input focused. We’re the Government Rules of Sourcing: plan looking at outputs: managing suppliers, and manage for great results; be fair to not managing supplies. all suppliers; get the right supplier; get “We’re looking for benefits to drive the best deal for everyone; and play by procurement related activities that can the rules. be maintained and enhanced through a “They’re pretty simple rules, and process, not being slaves to the process are actually common sense in any but being more agile in applying the commercial procurement environment,” principles and the processes together for commented Charlie. “We’re in the game better outcomes for you and for us.” now of incremental yet determined Traditionally, the contractual improvement. What we’re trying to do is relationship between Defence and to take small steps along a journey with supplier was a true master-slave a long game context to get compliance relationship, notes Charlie, and it was with those five principles.” adversarial. The time spent managing BRIG (Retd) Charles Lott MNZM is NZDF Chief It’s a journey that Charlie clearly conflicts between the NZDF and Joint Defence Services. In his 34-year logistics enjoys leading. “I have the best job suppliers was costly. “What we found career in the New Zealand Army he saw in the Defence Force. I have fingers was generally a win-lose over the long operational service with the NZ Contingent in everybody’s pies, and I have an term.” MFO Sinai, as Liaison Officer for the UN opportunity for my team to make “We now have a clear delineation Operations in Somalia, and as a Logistics changes to the way we actually engage between the ‘decider’ and the ‘provider’, Operations Senior Staff Officer. He was made with industry as part of our capability where the decider, us, provides the ‘what a Member of the New Zealand Order of Merit plan.” where when and why’, and the provider in 2001.

20 Line of Defence iv Effective external partnerships are developed that support the full capability lifecycle of equipment that contributes to NZDF capability.

According to Charlie, the next phase is to professionalise Defence’s procurement people to re-orientate them to look at managing suppliers and strategic relationships rather than contracts. “Anybody can write a contract – you can outsource that,” he said, “what I want to see is a pool of procurement specialists rather than contract lawyers.” “Why are we doing it? Our environment has changed and is changing as we speak. We’re faced with a massive recruitment issue. People join the Defence Force for six or so years, get a mission under their belt and then leave, and our recruitment base in New Zealand is dropping,” Charlie explained. provides us with the ‘who and how’, suppliers can use to make enquiries In addition, budgets are tighter, and because you know best. You know how and Defence can use to provide Defence is having to get the most from to do it – that’s your business, it’s not information on future tender its capability spends. ours. What we find is that it becomes a processes. In other words, in the context of gain-gain partnership.” finite human resources and budgets, Much of this change in approach “We took the report and asked having a Defence Force made up has its basis in the review initiated by ourselves so what does it mean for us,” heavily of people supporting and the Minister of Defence and published said Charlie. In doing so, and espite maintaining equipment, vehicles and as the 2014 Ministry of Defence report the report’s existence, it turned out weapons systems no longer makes Optimising New Zealand Industry that people in Defence working on a sense. “Defence is needing to focus on Involvement in the New Zealand day to day basis with suppliers didn’t our core business. If it’s not our core Defence sector. understand what we were trying to do. business we shouldn’t be doing it.” Assisting the review was the Hence the release this year of the The new relationship-based Expert Advisory Group comprised NZDF Framework for External & approach involves the signing of a of representatives from the Ministry, Industry Engagement, which Charlie charter between Charlie or CDF and the NZDF, MBIE, DIAC, NZDIA and describes as “a simple guide for our CEO of the other party in the strategic Treasury, including Charlie in his role people who on a day to day basis on relationship that defines both parties at that time as Commander, Defence our camps and bases buying goods behaviours towards each other. The Logistics Command. The report made and service to engage properly with contract, explains Charlie, comes later. three recommendations: industry.” Focused on outcomes and outputs, 1. Applying and improving whole- they are based on trust and integrity of-life costing in key stages of the The goal of the framework is to ensure and underlined by professional conduct Defence capability process, and that: and probity.” Relationships are assessed ensuring tender information to i industry has appropriate access to annually, with success measurement industry is clear what whole-of- information, infrastructure and focused on the relationship and life costs are to be included in the personnel enabling it to contribute behaviours. tender. effectively to NZDF procurement, But Charlie admits that Defence has 2. Improving Defence purchasing acquisition and sourcing business quite some way to go to ensuring that its processes and practices to optimise decisions. expectations are well articulated. “We’re New Zealand industry involvement. ii NZDF engages with capable struggling at that. We have a tendency Eg. requesting a New Zealand suppliers and external parties to to ‘over-gig’ things... and we confuse the Industry Engagement Plan for all support Defence outputs and market when we go out with 400-page large tenders, and requiring suppliers outcomes. RFTs that don’t say anything about the to report on expenditure on New iii NDF’s processes for early things we want, how we’re going to do it Zealand subcontractors. engagement harness innovation to and when we want it.” 3. Improving Defence’s relationship optimise capability decisions and “I want to ask, ‘can you help?’, rather with the defence industry, for enhance equipment, product and than saying ‘this is what I want’. It’s example, developing a website that service delivery. about asking the right questions.”

Line of Defence 21 DEFENCE

Contracting strategy in a Mega Project environment

Claire Negus, managing director of Primary Delta Consulting, will be presenting on contracting strategy at the upcoming NZDIA Defence, Industry & National Security Forum. In this exclusive interview, Line of Defence asks her about contracting strategies for high- stakes, big-budget, long-term infrastructure projects.

In her previous role as General Manager Pilbara region of Western Australia, LoD: So, the risk based approach lends Commercial at Roy Hill, Claire was facilities include a wet processing facility, itself particularly well to a mega project responsible for operating assets, six accommodation villages (300-2,800 where the stakes are particularly high? contracts and procurement management, rooms each), power plants, 344km of organisational risk, financial evaluations rail, a two-birth port and an airport. CN: Theoretically it’s what you should and insurances. With a team of 80 In the mega project context, do at any risk level, but the reality is that across six locations, Claire had carriage managing suppliers and contracts is a you’re not going to spend your time and of contracts to the value of AUD 10bn. high stakes game, and poor decisions effort on risk where the stakes don’t Roy Hill is a mega project. Centred up-front can have expensive, dangerous matter. So, it comes down to effective on the massive 55 million tonne per and long-lasting implications. It’s a use of resources. If you do have a lot annum Roy Hill iron ore mine in the context, says Claire, in which risk-based to do or a lot to gain, then it’s worth approaches to contracting strategy and spending the time up front to get it early supplier engagement are critical. right.

LoD: What will you be talking about in LoD: In New Zealand, projects are not your forum presentation? necessarily as large as some you might find in the Australian context, although CN: My talk will take a risk-based programmes such as the defence approach from the owner side of the regeneration may throw up large scale contract and looking at understanding projects. How do you see this risk-based what they want to achieve at a strategic approach to contracts relevant in the level and understanding what risks that New Zealand context? poses in relation to their strategy. The talk will then take them through the CN: You’ve got two aspects there as I process of considering different risk understand it: one is that you get fit for profiles and contract forms. I’ve got purpose assets and the other is that you about 10 different contract forms and I have it operated in a sustainable manner talk about the different risk profiles of to a standard to which the customer is each and how each match one’s strategic satisfied. So, you take your two strategic Claire Negus is the managing director of objectives and risks. objectives and then you look at them Primary Delta consulting, specialising in Ultimately a large portion of procurement, governance and strategy. from a risk perspective – what are the Claire is on the ANZ International Association contracts is around risk mitigation, so risks associated with each? – and then for Contract and Commercial Management we talk about how you then fit this into you take a step back and match it to a advisory board. She holds a Bachelor of your preferred contract format, and contract form. Laws, a Bachelor of Commerce, an MBA, a we work through ensuring that your In that instance, there are some Master’s in Business Strategy; a certificate contract specifics match your strategy contract forms that will satisfy those in Risk and Strategic Decision Making from and risk profile. It’s about how to get strategic objectives, but the customer Stanford University and recently completed a the right contract strategy and execute it may also want to look at splitting it up. certificate in Global Leadership from INSEAD, effectively for a mega project. So, part of what I go through is to talk France.

22 Line of Defence they valued and let them know what we valued. Getting an understanding of who can manage that risk best and who has the best solution also plays into that contracting strategy.

LoD: So, with early engagement there is an opportunity for the customer to understand where suppliers sit but also for suppliers to self-assess their own abilities?

CN: You’ve got two objectives there as I understand it: one is that you get fit for purpose assets and the other is that you have them operated in a sustainable manner to a standard to which you are satisfied. So, you take your two strategic objectives and then you look at them from a risk perspective – what are the risks associated with each? – and then about what is more important. Is the LoD: Tell us about your experience at you take a step back and match it to a cost more important or is the quality Roy Hill and how it has informed your contract form. more important? And if the cost is more approach? Because different parties place important you may want to cost out all different values on things, if you the elements. CN: Whether you’re on the contractor understand what they value you can So, let’s say time is not of the side of the fence or on the customer side obviously increase your price in those essence. You may want to spend a bit you’re probably looking to understand areas, and if you understand what they more time breaking up the construction each other best. So, some of my want you to do you can either increase portion and have them constructed in experience comes back to what worked your capability and capacity in that area such a way that you get either really and why did it work and what didn’t work to cater for that and/or if you have the good cost or really good quality, and and why, and – more importantly – does right expertise you can potentially either then you might then take a different this approach make sense? lower or increase your price depending approach to the ongoing operational I talked about what’s most important on how they value that service. side of it. What is more important, to you, but the other thing to understand It’s about both parties at that point do we care about time or how much it is what’s most important to the parties getting the most out of the relationship. will cost? Is it about getting the quality you want to deal with. One of the things But it comes down to an understanding exactly right, or are we just happy if we did at Roy Hill was early contract of who does what best. our staff are happy. These are the sort engagement where we would actually of things the customer needs to think run forums and workshop with potential LoD: There has been a lot of talk about and understand. suppliers in order to understand what recently in New Zealand about early engagement, and clearly Defence has become focused on engaging earlier in recognition that better outcomes can be achieved by engaging at the pre-tender stage. How do you think New Zealand and Australia sit internationally in this regard – are we arriving late to the party or are we leading the charge?

CN: I’m not qualified to assess the New Zealand context, but I think Australia is probably leading the charge. In the Fast Moving Consumer Goods space, one tends to see relational contracts rather than early engagement. Early engagement more speaks to major infrastructure pieces. In the major infrastructure space, Europe is not doing it.

Line of Defence 23 DEFENCE

The European competitive advantage hasn’t had great economic growth, with Portioning means I can likely get is quality and efficiency – they have high the exception of the mining sector. more highly skilled people to do it, and quality and their cost of construction Outside of the mining sector, growth I decrease the risk, which means I’m is moderately low given the level of from a major infrastructure contractor’s paying less and I should get a better- quality. Getting something that is fit for perspective has been in the government quality outcome. But if I went lump purpose or outside the box, however, space. Government projects typically sum, I’d likely get someone who isn’t is very challenging because they’re have a fairly well-defined scope prior to that skilled who would charge me a not interested in early engagement or going to market, although some states margin to take on the risk, but I should necessarily understanding what the do it better than others. get it faster and at a higher cost. customer wants. In the mining sector, when the focus It comes down to what the drivers So, let’s say time is not of the essence. was speed to market, early contractor of the outcome are at that point in time. You may want to spend a bit more time engagement went out the window. It breaking up the construction portion was all about “how quickly can we get LoD: So, in context of New Zealand, the and have it constructed in such a way this built, the quality has to be about Defence Capability Plan, the Defence that you get either really good cost or right, and we don’t care about the cost.” Estate Regeneration and various really good quality, and then you might And now that commodity prices are capability projects, there is a deliberate take a different approach to the ongoing less buoyant there is far more focus on strategy and budgets. For a lean, mean operational side of it. What is more getting quality because that then leads defence force, does this mean that important, do you care about time or to maintainability issues and longer term the risk based approach is particularly how much it will cost? Is it about getting operational cost. applicable? the quality exactly right, or are you just In this setting, people take the happy if your staff are happy. These are time to get the early contractor CN: Where you’ve got a large project the sort of things the customer needs to engagement and to really optimise to take on and something that will be think about and understand. their contracting strategy to make around for some time and present budget Whilst scoping from an early sure they’re getting the right people. impacts for many years, it is particularly contractor engagement perspective They ask questions such as “do I go important to consider the entire life cycle is relatively standard globally, actually lump sum for the whole job or do of the contract and the scope of work having open dialogue prior to engaging I spend the money up front to have up-front, and to spend the time and someone is more unusual. an engineer do quite a bit of due money getting that right so that you don’t It’s important to understand the diligence to refine the scope so I have end up with a problem twelve months or drivers. Over the past ten years Australia five or six separate portions?” twelve years down the track.

24 Line of Defence NZDF Invictus Games Team Soars Jason Pore, Captain of the 2017 New Zealand Invictus Games Team will talk about ‘The Invictus Experience’ at the upcoming NZDIA Defence, Industry & National Security Forum. We recap on the exploits of our most successful ever Invictus team.

NZDF Invictus Games Team in Toronto. Image courtesy New Zealand Defence Force.

On 28 September it was reported that the NZDF Invictus “It wasn’t until I rounded the final bend of the 1500 Games Team was well on the way to their most successful metres that I knew I’d be leaving with a medal,” recounted LT Invictus Games yet. At the end of day five of the games – and Crawford. “It felt incredible to hear all the Kiwi supporters as with two days of competition to go – the 24-member team I was sprinting down the final 100 metres. had a haul of ten medals. Last year’s team came away from the “I was truly humbled when Victoria Cross recipient Willie event with a total of nine. Apiata did a haka after my medal ceremony, it was a special New Zealand Army Reserve Staff Sergeant Vanessa feeling I won’t forget, and seeing the smiles on team members Bawden-Pere won the team’s first gold medal in the Women’s faces as we congratulate each other is testament to the Midweight Powerlifting. Following her win, the NZDF team positivity of the Invictus Games,” said LT Crawford. debuted the Invictus Games haka. The Invictus Games is the only international adaptive New Zealand Army Chaplain Major Darren sporting event for wounded, injured and ill active duty and O’Callaghan, an NZDF Invictus Games team member, veteran service members. wrote the haka and said it was a real privilege. “The This year’s event is the largest yet, with 550 ill and injured whole team has embraced the haka, which shows us servicemen and women from 17 allied nations competing in sharing our identity as Kiwis,” said MAJ O’Callaghan. “It 12 adaptive sporting events. is also a unique opportunity we and our families have in The NZDF team is sponsored by the Auckland representing our country and the Defence Force and show RSA, Christchurch Memorial RSA, Fulton Hogan, BLK who we are and our values.” and Offlimits Trust. Sponsorship dollars pay for sports New Zealand Army’s Major Craig Wilson won double gold wheelchairs, team clothing, equipment and trailers, travel costs in the indoor rowing events, taking out both of the Men’s IR3 and a range of other expenses. events; the four-minute endurance and the one minute sprint. According to Jason, sponsorship could potentially also “Invictus to me represents getting over setbacks, subsidise costs for athletes and their families in the event of difficulties and barriers,” said MAJ Wilson “It takes the core an unexpected deterioration in their circumstances, health or resilience that is at the foundation of the NZDF. Many of wellbeing, and to educate and equip athletes and families to my team and my fellow competitors have adapted, overcome manage change positively. But that depends on whether or not and are going from strength to strength.” the team can attract more sponsorship. Royal New Zealand Navy’s Lieutenant Dan Crawford “Like any sport, if all overheads were covered for our notched up two bronze medals in less than an hour on the athletes and our biggest support staff (our families), the team second day of competition, placing in the Men’s IT7 1500m will excel to another level,” and the Men’s IT7 400m. These were the first track medals for To enquire about sponsoring Invictus Team NZ, email any NZDF Invictus Team. [email protected]

Line of Defence 25 DEFENCE Operation Pipeline: Fuel disruption response role for new NZDF Defence Relationship Manager Located at the new Defence Auckland Business Hub, NZDF Defence Relationship Manager Auckland Group Captain Glenn Gowthorpe has been getting to know Auckland businesses and helping to resolve a ‘once in a lifetime’ fuel disruption, writes editor Nicholas Dynon.

GPCAPT Gowthorpe was appointed On Thursday 14th September, the NZDF were considered to be a to the role of Defence Relationship the 168km pipeline supplying petrol, key member of the working group,” Manager Auckland (DRMA) on 1st diesel and jet-A1 fuel to Auckland from said Glenn. “In a group of fifteen September 2017, coinciding with the Marsden Point refinery in Northland representatives I was the only uniform at launch of the new Defence Auckland was put out of action when it was the table.” Business Hub. Located at the Hub, the discovered it had been damaged by a “The terms of reference for the WG DRMA position reports to Chief Joint digger. It was Auckland’s only supply of included providing a single source of Defence Services, Charlie Lott. jet fuel. truth on fuel supply and demand and The new role goes hand-in-hand With supply cut for a projected two formulating options and plans for what with the Auckland Business Hub’s weeks, the disruption was due to cause we were going to do to resolve the issue. objective of supporting the building flight cancellations out of Auckland We had a situation where everyone had of partnerships with businesses and Airport and a major fuel shortage for to work together for the benefit of New organisations in the Auckland area. the city’s motorists. Zealand.” “My job here involves working with In response to the fuel pipeline The Working Group met every day industry and external stakeholders,” disruption, the Government set up a at 8:30am, starting with an operational Glenn told Line of Defence, “including cross-government and industry Fuel update briefing before considering local government and all the central Security Working Group coordinated by immediate requirements and future government agencies that have a MBIE with a Chair from the Ministry plans. After the initial four days of footprint in the greater Auckland area.” of Transport. “With much to offer, the disruption, it then met on an as- required basis, which included further contingency planning for a ‘worst case’ scenario. “Defence was able to make a tangible difference and help out as a Force for NZ from Day One, just by being in the working group,” he noted. With the pipeline out of action, fuel had to be trucked into Auckland – something not routinely done. The sudden shift to moving Jet-A1 aircraft fuel by road meant that the industry did not have enough staff trained to efficiently carry out the task. Aviation fuel is a very regulated industry, and our NZDF members are some of the very few in the country that have the qualifications to do the work. “The NZDF was able to say ‘here’s our people and here’s our qualifications’, GPCAPT Glenn Gowthorpe at the Defence Auckland Business Hub. and literally the day NZDF personnel

26 Line of Defence achieve to support industry and be a force for New Zealand was a big plus.” As part of the NZDF fuel conservation efforts, HQJFNZ cancelled all non-essential flying, while the two main RNZAF Bases at Whenuapai and Ohakea ceased drawing Jet-A1 fuel from industry partner Air BP. According to Glenn, the NZDF received timely support from a wide range of partners. “The US Air Force had a C-17 coming in to Whenuapai and we were able to talk with them before they arrived. As a result, they brought more fuel with them than planned and they altered their outbound route to conduct their 100,000 litre refuel outside of NZ HMNZS Endeavour was part of the response effort. Image courtesy of Royal New Zealand Navy. en route to their destination.” arrived they were inducted and working,” The NZDF was able to supply this According to Glenn, in any major said Glenn. “Our fuel operators wanted system and was able to help install and disaster or emergency the NZDF to get in and do something to help commission it. maintains a forward-leaning approach to New Zealanders, whether it was to keep “Coupled with my former role of providing support. His role is to make Kiwis flying or maintaining resilience Chief of Staff RNZAF Base Auckland, the networks and the contacts and to of the ground fuel network, they were I fully understood the issues around build trust so that the optimal response extremely motivated.” engaging with our partners and the key can be delivered. Another mitigation option tabled by resources that we could bring to bear,” “We haven’t historically been at the the Working Group involved bringing a Glenn commented. table early on in some of these scenarios, ship carrying aviation fuel into Wynyard “The fact that I was here as the and if you’re not at the table you’re not Quarter, which required an aviation DRMA and ready to go, all while part of the conversation, thus not able to fuel filter system to be set up on site. understanding what we needed to help out quickly and efficiently. “I was able to make a large number of contacts as a result of my role in NZDF equipment and personnel the incident, such as with Auckland Involved in Operation Pipeline: Council and emergency management • 20 x NZ Army heavy transport drivers – supporting the truck bridging of organisations, we are in a better position Jet-A1 fuel and ground fuels on the following routes: WN to Napier, Marsden to help out during the next contingency, Point to Auckland Airport, Wellington to Palmerston North, Mt Maunganui to whatever that may be. Auckland. “What was really pleasing is that Government, industry and defence all • 6 x RNZAF Aviation Refuel Operators – receipting the Jet-A1 fuel from trucks put in the hard yards to make it work, bridging the fuel in from Marsden Point to the Joint User Hydrant Installation we had a common goal,” he said. (JUHI) at Auckland Airport. Working alongside Air BP staff, duties included Glenn likened the role of the NZDF defueling tankers, testing fuel quality and transferring fuel for use by the airlines. in times of emergency to that of a first • HMNZS Endeavour – sailed to the vicinity of Marsden Point ready to load responder. It is that ultimately needs to and move up to 4.8M litres of Diesel in an effort to increase the resilience of back out and let industry take over in the ground fuel network and free up tankers and drivers to support the Jet-A1 order to reconstitute for the next issue. bridging efforts. “We are very much a contingency • Aviation Fuel Filter system – part of the NZDF Deployable Bulk Fuel based force with a wide skill and Installation (DBFI) was installed at Wynyard fuel depot in order to filter the experience base supported with some Jet-A1 fuel as it was loaded into industry trucks heading for JUHI. unique equipment and resources,” he said. “Deciding when to withdraw from • Liaison and logistics staff in the National Crisis management centre to support an emergency situation is a tough one the Government-led efforts. because when you’re in there and doing a • Defence Relationship Manager Auckland as a key member of the MBIE-led great job, people don’t want you to leave.” Fuel Security Working Group charged with providing a cross-Government and “The incident showed the NZDF Industry resolution to the pipeline disruption. being very responsive and providing • Numerous planning and operations staff at HQJFNZ planning, positioning and positive outcomes. It’s part of that executing the NZDF response. NZDF culture of wanting to serve. Our people are fantastic.”

Line of Defence 27 DEFENCE NEWS NZDF contribution in Afghanistan “For every dollar spent on a new multinational combined joint task force increased capability, four is spent supporting it to will help restore law and order in a 25 AUG: The NZDF’s 10-person through life, the bulk of which is spent fictional South Pacific country. contribution to the NATO Resolute locally. “Opposition groups and challenges Support Mission in Afghanistan is to be “Each year the New Zealand presented will allow for a range of increased by three personnel. Defence Force spends $600 million on military and non-military responses “New Zealand has been contributing maintenance and repair, training, and to be exercised, both individually as to Afghanistan’s stability since 2001, other commercial services. NZDF and collectively with other and we remain committed to the government agencies, non-governmental international community’s objectives NZDF Surveys Erupting Vanuatu organisations and international there,” said Defence Minister Mark Volcano partners,” exercise director, Lieutenant Mitchell. 27 SEP: An NZDF aerial survey found Colonel Martin Dransfield said. “A deteriorating security situation has huge columns of smoke, ash and As well as the international military prompted the international community volcanic rocks billowing from the crater partners, New Zealand organisations to refocus its efforts. Countries around of an erupting volcano on Vanuatu’s supporting the exercise will include the globe are making decisions to Ambae Island. the NZ Customs Service, Ministry of increase contributions to prevent Group Captain Nick Olney, the Foreign Affairs and Trade, NZ Police, Afghanistan from becoming a safe haven Acting Air Component Commander, Ministry for Primary Industries, NZ for terrorist organisations.” said imagery of Monaro volcano would Transport Authority, Immigration New The 10 Defence Force personnel help Vanuatu’s National Disaster Zealand, Ministry of Health, District currently in Afghanistan are working as Management Office determine if a large Health Boards, Red Cross and St John mentors and support personnel at the eruption was imminent. New Zealand. Afghan National Army Officer Academy The NZDF has conducted aerial in Kabul. surveys of volcanoes in Vanuatu, the Future Mobility Solutions to Acquire Two of the extra personnel will Solomon Islands, and Tonga in recent Willard Marine Inc. deploy to positions within Mission years, in response to requests from 27 SEP: Future Mobility Solutions has Headquarters in Kabul, and one will these countries. Yesterday’s aerial survey, announced that it has entered into a deploy to the Academy as a physical which included the Ambrym and Lopevi conditional agreement for the acquisition training instructor. volcanoes, had been planned before of Willard Marine Inc. for an aggregate Resolute Support is a non-combat Monaro’s recent activity intensified. purchase price of US$6.85 million. mission. New Zealand’s contribution is Vanuatu authorities raised the official Willard, founded in 1957, mandated until 30 June 2018. alert level recently to four, as Monaro’s is headquartered in the US and eruption intensified. Alert levels range manufactures and sells a wide range of Huge opportunities for NZ Defence from 0 to 5, with level 5 indicating a crafts under the Willard, SeaArk and industry large-scale eruption. Crystaliner brand names. 11 AUG: The Government’s planned About 10,000 people live on Ambae Willard has a broad range of military investment in Defence over the next Island, which has Monaro, one of the grade rigid inflatable boats (RIBs) 15 years represents a huge opportunity most active volcanoes in the world. supplemented by significant aluminum for New Zealand companies, Defence Monaro last erupted in 2005, prompting and fiber glass hull expertise with a Minister Mark Mitchell has told Defence the relocation of about 5,000 people client focus on customers in the military, industry representatives. across the 400-square-kilometre island. first responder and commercial sectors At a 10 August Parliamentary in the United States. To date, Willard has Reception, the minister told the NZDF to Host International Military sold over 2,000 boats. Defence industry that the country Exercise In making the Acquisition, the needs a Defence Force that is equipped 18 SEP: More than 2,000 military Company believes that Willard will build and supported to respond to a rapidly personnel from New Zealand and 13 significantly on the Company’s previously changing strategic environment. other countries will descend on the announced acquisitions of Sillinger and “This requires investment. Over top of the South Island at the start of Gemini. In particular, it should broaden the next 15 years, the Government October for an international exercise the FMS Group’s geographic reach by will invest up to $20 billion in new and hosted by the NZDF. adding the United States to the Group’s upgraded military capability, including Exercise Southern Katipo 17 (SK17), strengths in Europe, Africa, Indian replacement of all our major platforms which runs from 2 October to 18 Ocean, UK and in the Asia Pacific. and the regeneration of the Defence November, aims to test and evaluate the Equally, Willard should deepen and estate. NZDF’s ability to plan and conduct joint expand the FMS Group’s customer base, “While we are not builders of operations involving a range of naval, especially in the military sector where warships or military aircraft, New land, and air assets. Willard is especially strong. Lastly, in Zealand companies can support those The SK17 exercise scenario will be relation to FMS’ leading global position capabilities with world-class products a continuation of that used in Southern in amphibious technology, Willard and systems, and also support them Katipo 15, in which New Zealand should offer substantial opportunities through life,” Mr Mitchell said. deployed a military contingent to lead a for its Sealegs subsidiary.

28 Line of Defence INTERNATIONAL NEWS New Antarctic Science to international nuclear disarmament Platform announced efforts”, Mr Brownlee said. “While no 14 SEP: Minister of Foreign Affairs state currently in possession of nuclear Gerry Brownlee and Minister of weapons will be signing along with us, Science and Innovation Paul Goldsmith this Treaty nevertheless represents an announced that Antarctica New important step towards a nuclear-free Zealand, in partnership with MBIE, will world. jointly develop a new Antarctic Science “It establishes the first global Platform. prohibition on nuclear weapons “Following consultation with a wide and provides the international legal range of sector stakeholders, Antarctica framework for a world without these New Zealand has been invited to work weapons,” he said. New Zealand joined with the Ministry to establish the new over 120 other states in supporting Platform,” Mr Brownlee said. the adoption of the treaty at a United “An independent governance Nations conference in July this year. group will be established to make funding decisions, based on advice and Auckland to host APEC 2021 Leaders’ recommendations from the Platform Week host,” said Mr Goldsmith. “This 15 AUG: New Zealand will host APEC Trade Minister Todd McClay governance model will result in most in 2021, with Leaders’ Week to be held research programmes and projects being in Auckland from November 8 to 14. European Commission President developed collaboratively with input “With Auckland also set to host the Jean-Claude Juncker also announced from relevant science providers and America’s Cup, 2021 will be a big year in his ‘State of the Union’ address government agencies.” for the country’s biggest city,” Foreign that he is seeking approval to launch $21 million over three years for Minister Gerry Brownlee said. negotiations and aims to conclude the the Antarctic Science Platform was “We are announcing the dates as NZ-EU FTA by late 2019. “An FTA announced as part of Budget 2017 early as possible to provide some clarity will give New Zealand companies an through the Ministry’s Strategic Science for planning, which is already under way. opportunity to significantly increase Investment Fund. This funding is “APEC 2021 will be the largest trade with the EU.” additional to a number of existing event ever hosted by the New Zealand According to the Minister, two-way sources of support for Antarctic government and is a wonderful trade with the EU is worth more than research. opportunity for New Zealand to shine $20 billion a year and creates thousands Priority research areas will include on the international stage. of jobs and opportunities throughout understanding the stability of the West “It is expected that APEC will attract New Zealand. Antarctic Ice Sheet, change in the up to 22,000 international attendees to The European Commission will Antarctic atmosphere and Southern the 12 significant APEC-related events now send its negotiating mandate to the Ocean, threats to ecosystem dynamics in held throughout the year, with around European Council. Approval is expected the Ross Sea, and connections between 10,000 attendees expected for Leaders’ later this year. terrestrial and near shore Antarctic Week. environments, including sea ice. “While Auckland is confirmed to Australian humanitarian support for MBIE will work closely with host the Leaders’ Week, we intend to Vanuatu Antarctica New Zealand to develop a spread meetings and events across other 30 SEP: The Australian Government Platform Plan. A governance group large cities, including Christchurch, is sending humanitarian assistance is expected to be established early to showcase the very best of New to Vanuatu in the face of a volcanic next year with the Platform becoming Zealand’s capability, innovation, culture eruption threat on Ambae Island. operational from July 2018. and amazing landscapes,” Mr Brownlee HMAS Choules departed Australia on said. 30 September to help the Government of NZ to sign prohibition of nuclear Vanuatu evacuate the 11,000 residents on weapons treaty NZ-EU FTA to be fast-tracked Ambae Island. On board are specialists 18 SEP: Foreign Minister Gerry 13 SEP: Trade Minister Todd McClay and supplies to assist with the evacuation Brownlee announced that New Zealand says he expects the NZ-European as well as a landing craft. will sign the Treaty on the Prohibition Union Free Trade Agreement to be HMAS Choules was expected of Nuclear Weapons at a ceremony formally launched later this year after to reach Vanuatu in the middle of during the United Nations General the European Commission and New the following week, and a team of Assembly in New York. New Zealand Zealand both finalised their respective Australian humanitarian and military will sign the Treaty on the first day it is negotiating mandates. experts arrived on 30 September. open for signature, 20 September. “It’s extremely important the Australia has also committed “Our signing at this first European Commission and New $250,000 to provide supplies including opportunity is consistent with New Zealand have completed this next step,” food, water, shelter and hygiene kits and Zealand’s long-standing commitment Mr McClay said. fund aerial surveillance of affected areas.

Line of Defence 29 INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

Is North Korea actually a serious threat to peace?

Former Defence Minister Wayne Mapp cuts through the emotive rhetoric surrounding recent North Korean nuclear and missile tests, arguing that despite the bluster, North Korea and the United States are hardly on the brink of war.

For over 20 years the world, and the United States in particular, has worried about a nuclear armed North Korea. Over that time North Korea has gone from developing a crude bomb that was not deliverable, to testing a weaponised hydrogen bomb deliverable by an ICBM. That latter capability may still be in its infancy, but the level of progress that North Korea has made in the past indicates that it will not be long before North Korea has a small number of ICBM’s tipped with hydrogen bombs.

At no time has North Korea Since then, despite toughening seriously stepped back from its sanctions, North Korea has been ambitions to be a nuclear armed state. relentless in pursuing its goal. The Probably the closest was the deal Six Power talks never deterred North negotiated by President Clinton in 1994. Korean ambitions. The first nuclear The Agreed Framework between test was in October 2006, and the North Korea and the United States was second in May 2009. The last eighteen intended to suspend North Korean months have seen three tests, with the research into nuclear weapons, ultimately most recent being a hydrogen bomb in leading to the denuclearisation of the September 2017. Korean Peninsula. North Korea was to President Trump is a new element get two PWR power reactors. It also was in this standoff. We have long become intended to lead to a Peace settlement of used to North Korea’s dire threats. The the Korean War to replace the armistice fact that the United States President agreement of 1953. has chosen to match North Korean The election of President George W rhetoric is new. But despite Trump’s Hon Dr Wayne Mapp QSO was New Zealand’s Bush in 2000, coupled with continuing inflammatory rhetoric, has anything Minister of Defence and Minister of Science and Innovation from 2008 to 2011. He North Korean research into nuclear really changed in the basic dynamic was appointed to the New Zealand Law weapons, led to the cancellation of the between the North Korea and the Commission in February 2012. deal in 2004. United States?

30 Line of Defence ST Kinetic_40mm_NZ ad 2017_FA Path_HR.pdf 1 21/9/17 6:41 PM

It can be argued that the likelihood that North Korea will soon have ICBMs capable of reaching mainland United States has changed everything. That the United States now faces an imminent threat that must be responded to. However, such an argument represents a basic misunderstanding of the role of nuclear weapons. They are not weapons intended for actual use. Rather their role is defensive. The simple fact of their possession by a state renders that state invulnerable to an existential attack. The North Koreans certainly have enough examples of fallen dictators who may have desired nuclear weapons, but being unable to get them, were then vulnerable to invasion. Iraq and Libya provide the most obvious recent examples. Thus once a state has nuclear weapons, no other state will dare attack it, for fear of the most drastic consequences. The prospect of the obliteration of Seoul or Tokyo would surely focus the minds of American policy makers almost to the same extent as the image of Los C

Angeles disappearing in a nuclear fireball. North Korea M probably had the capacity to target North Asian cities some considerable time ago. Y So despite all the current rhetoric, it does not appear thatCM the situation is significantly different to what it was some yearsMY ago when North Korea first tested the bomb. CY North Korea is not about to terminate itself by launching a nuclear weapon at anyone. Similarly, the United States is notCMY about to attack North Korea. That would either precipitate K such an attack, or at the very minimum, result in a massive conventional response aimed directly at Seoul. So what is the current situation about? Are United States’ actions really more aimed at China, rather than North Korea? The United States and China are engaged in strategic competition in Asia. The United States still expects China to recognise its primacy. Conversely China expects to be treated as an equal, at least in Asian affairs. China also has deep memories of the Korean war. The PLA was able to push US forces back from the Yalu River to the 38th parallel in 1951. For China, that was a huge military success against the most technologically advanced military in the world. The Korean war ended with an armistice, not a peace treaty. That outcome was driven as much by China as by North Korea. Since then, China has made few efforts to convert the armistice into a comprehensive peace settlement. They will only do so if they get what they want. This background limits the ability of the United States to In that case, North Korea may be willing to negotiate on pressure China. There is simply no circumstance where China the issue of nuclear weapons. While it may not result in the will meekly do the bidding of the United States. complete abolition of North Korea’s nuclear capability, it So, for China, the survival of North Korea is an certainly would be expected to include abandoning the ICBM imperative. There is a limit to the level of sanctions that China programme, and otherwise freezing, or even reducing the will agree to. They cannot be so severe as to endanger the programme from its current level. North Korean regime. Neither can they cause undue hardship Even if the current stalemate does not result in such to the North Korean people. an outcome, it hardly seems likely to lead to war. There Instead China is focused on dialogue. This is not because would have to be a culmination of several truly disastrous they are idealists. It is because China wants such talks to miscalculations for that to occur. resolve certain things on the Korean peninsula. Much more likely is a continuing sense of latent crisis, A peace treaty that led to the removal of US forces from which never actually eventuates into much more than words the Korean peninsula would be seen by China as a net gain. and symbolic actions. At some point we can expect the Such an outcome would also guarantee the survival of North main players to get tired of the posturing. Perhaps then real Korea as an independent state. dialogue may occur.

Line of Defence 31 INTERNATIONAL SECURITY Partners in the Pacific: NZDF operations support sustainable fisheries Peter Greener, Senior Fellow at Victoria University Wellington’s Centre for Strategic Studies, reports on two significant NZDF operations highlighting the contribution New Zealand can make to sustainable fisheries in the South Pacific.

“Global fish production approaching sustainable limit, UN warns” was the headline in The Guardian on 7 July 2016, commenting on the report released that month by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). The report highlighted that approximately 90% of global fish stocks are either fully or overfished. Almost a decade ago, writing in the journal Marine Policy, Professor Rögnvaldur Hannesson of the Norwegian School of Economics noted that there was, “reason to believe that a further growth of the tuna fisheries of the Pacific Island states would lead to overfishing of the tuna stocks.” Professor Hannesson went on to note that for the small island states of the Pacific the picture looked bleak if their futures did not lie in tuna. HMNZS Hawea on patrol in Fijian waters. Courtesy of NZDF.

Of concern for Pacific fisheries Pacific Maritime Forces. Whilst this was the confirmation in the latest FAO gathering was aimed at strengthening report that 41% of the seven principal maritime partnerships at a strategic tuna species were estimated as being level, it will build on what is already overfished. being done at an operational and The New Zealand Ministry of tactical level. Defence’s Defence Assessment 2014 Two significant operations that noted that the global demand for food the New Zealand Defence Force have is expected to increase by 35% by 2030 undertaken this year are Operation and that the demand for fish is therefore Wasawasa and Operation Calypso. also expected to increase, putting more In late April, the (Inshore) Patrol pressure on Pacific fisheries and leading Vessel HMNZS Hawea deployed on to a greater presence of fishing fleets Operation Wasawasa to Fiji for six from distant nations. The document months – the first time an IPV has highlighted the potentially devastating operated in the South Pacific – to work Dr Peter Greener is a Senior Fellow at the effect this could have on small island with Republic of Fiji Navy personnel Centre for Strategic Studies at Victoria economies. patrolling Fiji’s Exclusive Economic University Wellington. He is also an Honorary Elsewhere in this issue of Line Zone (EEZ) and territorial waters. Professor and was previously Academic Dean at the Command and Staff College of the New of Defence, I report on the inaugural Additionally, personnel from Fiji’s Zealand Defence Force meeting of the Heads of South West Ministry of Fisheries and Forests, the

32 Line of Defence HMNZS Otago. Courtesy of NZDF

Fiji Revenue and Customs Service and safe. The new crew will continue kilometres through Nauru and the NZ’s Ministry for Primary Industries the work, carrying out patrols until Federated States of Micronesia and took part in the patrols. November. reported 60 vessels of interest to the Whilst the initial patrol in May Meanwhile, on 26 June the Offshore FFA. covered almost 1,200 nautical miles Patrol Vessel HMNZS Otago departed Meanwhile, the crew of the Otago (2,200 km) and included 16 vessel Devonport Naval Base bound for boarded 26 vessels in the EEZs of boardings, one patrol in June alone Noumea and the first stage of this year’s Vanuatu and the Solomon Islands. boarded 70 vessels, with seven being Operation Calypso, part of the ship’s Whilst the focus is often on illegal sent back to port because of licensing two-month deployment to the South and unregistered fishing activities, and safety infringements. Pacific. the September 2016 United Nations From April to September, The Pacific Islands fisheries patrols report on Transnational Organised throughout the first rotation, a total of are part of the work supporting the Crime in the Pacific highlighted that eight patrols were undertaken, with over Pacific Islands Forum Fisheries Agency these activities are less of a concern to 370 vessels boarded – an average of (FFA), an agency that strengthens maritime surveillance agencies across seven boardings per day. national capacity and regional solidarity the Pacific than the underreporting of Of concern to Lieutenant Dave so its 17 members can manage, control catches. Luhrs, Commanding Officer of and develop their tuna fisheries, an The Commanding Officer of HMNZS Hawea, were the large industry worth some $3 billion. HMNZS Otago, Lieutenant Commander number of offences identified – 65 in “We have been supporting fisheries Lorna Gray, noted that much activity total – many of which involved safety management in the southwest Pacific across the region is being undertaken by issues. by deploying our ships and aircraft legally licensed vessels, underreporting The Hawea has now seen a change to conduct these annual patrols,” or misreporting their catch. “Physical of crew with the original crew, who said Major General Tim Gall, the inspection is the only way to verify that left on 4th September, being replaced Commander Joint Forces New Zealand. the catch is being properly reported,” by the crew of HMNZS Taupo. In “Vessels fishing for tuna will be the she observed. farewelling the outgoing crew the focus of our inspections.” Each of these NZDF operations Deputy Commander of the Republic of During the fisheries patrols the underscores the importance of the Fiji Military Forces, Brigadier-General Otago was joined for three days by a contribution New Zealand can Mohammed Aziz, said the crew had Royal New Zealand Air Force P-3K2 make to the region to help forged a solid bond with the Fijian Orion. The Orion spotted almost maintain sustainable Navy and had made Fiji’s waterways 500 vessels over 1.2 million square fisheries into the future.

Line of Defence 33 INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

Royal New Zealand Navy hosts South West Pacific Regional Initiative

Rapidly evolving maritime security threats are demanding coordinated regional responses and highlighting the importance of Heads of Maritime Forces meetings, writes Peter Greener.

In April this year defence chiefs from Hosted by Rear Admiral Solomon Islands, Papua New Guinea, around the South Pacific, in identifying John Martin of the Royal New Vanuatu, Australia and New Zealand. areas for increased cooperation, agreed Zealand Navy, along with Assistant Attendance on day one was limited to to the holding of a meeting of Heads Commissioner Mike Rusbatch from the principals and their support staff, of Maritime Forces in Auckland later the New Zealand Police, the meeting whilst day two saw the group joined by in the year aimed at enhancing regional brought together the heads of navies a wider audience of officials, academics maritime security. The inaugural and law enforcement maritime agencies and defence and police personnel. meeting of the Heads of South West from across the region. The 2016 Defence White Paper Pacific Maritime Forces took place on Represented at the meeting were noted that the “Government’s highest Auckland’s North Shore on 4 and 5 maritime forces from the Cook Islands, priority for the Defence Force is its September. Niue, Samoa, Tonga, Fiji, France, ability to operate in New Zealand and

Meeting participants at Te Taua Moana o Aotearoa Marae, the RNZN Marae in Devonport. Courtesy of NZDF.

34 Line of Defence Chief of Navy Rear Admiral John Martin presenting a hoe to Chief Superintendent Charles Fox Sau, Director Maritime, Royal Solomon Islands Police Force. Courtesy of NZDF. its Exclusive Economic Zone, followed million square kilometers of the other resource protection and transnational by the South Pacific and the Southern island nations’ EEZs are added. organised crime and illegal migration, Ocean.” With regards to the South In order for the New Zealand these included search and rescue; the Pacific the White Paper observed that as Defence Force to be able to operate security of EEZs; maritime terrorism; global demand for fish stocks increases effectively in the South Pacific, it is climate change, and humanitarian aid so too will the pressure on fisheries, crucial that it is able to work together and disaster relief. with greater challenges anticipated in with other forces across the region. This Strengthening partnerships, the areas of illegal, unregulated and meeting had a clear maritime focus and implementing co-coordinated responses unreported fishing. was aimed at increasing cooperation, and building capacity were seen as key It noted the economic impact on trust and confidence between the heads elements in responding to the challenges the region, where already the annual of the member navies and maritime law facing the region. losses through such activities have been enforcement agencies. Until this meeting there had not estimated at $400 million. The White Rather than being a conference, this been a forum providing the principals a Paper also highlighted transnational was a meeting where the principals of place to further relationships and engage crime as a growing issue. Perhaps not the maritime forces of the region had with regional issues – of particular surprisingly then, these topics were at the opportunity not only to listen to importance given the rapid evolution of the core of the concerns discussed by experts who provided a New Zealand maritime security threats and challenges the principals over the two days of their perspective of the region, but also to that demand coordinated regional meeting. discuss at some length the challenges responses. Whilst New Zealand itself has an that impacted each of them in their own Captain Humphrey Tawake, Chief Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of environment. of the Republic of Fiji Navy said it more than four million square kilometers The first day therefore was presented a significant opportunity to – one of the largest in the world – it also focused on the principals, allowing discuss common security issues around has responsibility in the South Pacific an opportunity to discuss common one table. for the realm EEZs of Tokelau, Niue concerns with regards to capability Given the success of this inaugural and the Cook Islands, together a further development, including personnel and gathering it was resolved that the Heads area of more than two and a half million training, and operational demands. of South West Pacific Maritime square kilometers. The second day had a broader Forces meeting will continue The size of the challenge of policing regional focus and common themes on an annual basis, hosted the region is underscored when the eight were identified. In addition to fisheries in turn by its members.

Line of Defence 35 HOMELAND SECURITY

New Zealand and Terrorism: The case for new legislation

John Battersby of Massey University’s Centre for Defence and Security Studies writes that terrorism is a tactic, it’s evolving, and it’s not going away. With new technologies such as unmanned vehicles and artificial intelligence at its disposal its evolution is set to continue.

Over the last two decades the nature be a major focus of future terrorism. to the French attack on the Rainbow of terrorism has changed from a But the nature of the terrorism they Warrior two years before. predominantly sectarian and nationalist have inspired may not remain confined The smuggling of explosives, use of orientation confined within the borders to them. It is entirely possible that false passports, and planning to sabotage of affected states, to a phenomenon previously inward looking, nationally the vessel was illegal – but when brought globalised by jihadist movements defined white supremacist groups could together to form a conspiracy to commit directing or inspiring violence across seek greater connectivity with each other violence to subvert the right to protest continents. and express themselves globally. Late – it became something altogether Funds, recruitment paraphernalia twentieth century cults such as Branch more sinister. The prosecution of two and propaganda oscillates through Davidians and Aum Shinrikyo – whose agents for manslaughter underscored borderless cyberspace and people hostility to the world outside them was the weakness of normal criminal codes congregate in terrorism’s hot zones by previously confined geographically - may being applied to this type of activity. staged travel through different countries. not be so in the future. The 1987 Act is still on the statute Since 2014 their final destinations have New Zealand’s legislative architecture books, it applies narrowly to international been Iraq, Syria, Somalia and Yemen. As in face of globalised terrorism remains terrorism occurring in New Zealand. ISIS influence shrinks in those countries, fundamentally out of step. The The Act contains some little-known however, other unstable locations such International Terrorism (Emergency emergency powers which have never been as the Philippines may become the focus Powers) Act 1987 was a belated attempt used, and unless there is an event very of jihadists who seem set to continue to to legislate against activity that had led similar to the Rainbow Warrior bombing, probably never will be. The Suppression of Terrorism Act (STA) in 2002 came in the wake of 9/11 but more specifically in response to the United Nations Security Council Resolutions 1368 and 1373 which followed. New Zealand was a reluctant legislator even then, drafting a law with a torturously complicated definition of terrorism. The STA has been evoked only once in 2007, but when it came to laying charges against those arrested for allegedly threatening assassinations and undertaking tactical training using small arms and Molotov cocktails – it was found to be impossible to do so. The Solicitor General pronounced the STA Dr John Battersby is currently a Teaching Fellow at Massey University’s Centre for Defence and as “incoherent and unworkable” and it Security Studies. He previously served in the NZ Police’s Wellington and Central Districts before has never been used since. There would joining the School of Leadership, Management and Command at the Royal New Zealand Police College in Porirua. Prior to that he was with the Treaty Issues and International Law Team be few other countries that would not at the Crown Law Office. An historian by training, his research interests are in terrorism, legally consider this type of activity as insurgency and intelligence. terrorism.

36 Line of Defence Recent examples of New Zealand and allowing for the cancellation of limelight at the moment, but white individuals possessing and distributing passports for those suspected of plans supremacists may copy their tactics – violent jihadist hard copy and video to do so. This legislation contained a and indeed lone actor attacks on the material have been dealt with using sunset clause however; by 1 April 2018 Finsbury Mosque and Charlottesville the Films, Videos, and Publications the effect of all temporary amendments would indicate they already have. New Classification Act 1993, legislation not would have lapsed. Zealand has no legislative vision about actually designed for material promoting Critically, the Bill also failed to define how it could deal with a rise in this type terrorism. So far this appears to have a ‘foreign fighter’. The cancellation of of violence. sufficiently contained the few individuals passports by Ministerial order has not In Central and South America, who have been prosecuted, but the yet been challenged in Court, but if no criminal gangs incarcerated alongside viability of this avenue may be stretched one knows legally what a ‘foreign fighter’ political prisoners resulted in a if greater numbers become involved or is, it is probably only a matter of time politicisation of those gangs especially the advocacy of violence becomes more before a legal challenge is launched. among the favelas of Brazil. With the widespread. With foreign fighters leaving Syria spread of transnational crime into Pacific New Zealand’s Muslim community and Iraq, fears have arisen internationally Island countries, it is not a far flung is broadly determined to maintain a that these fighters may seek to return possibility that criminal groups expand tolerant and non-violent position in to their home countries. In most cases their horizons to include violence and New Zealand society – its trust in they will be arrested if they do, but any intimidation for political purposes or to New Zealand’s law enforcement and of the dozen or so New Zealanders adopt the tactics of terrorists for their intelligence agencies to effectively deal thought to be among foreign fighters more limited criminal ends. with those few who emerge to promote cannot be. There is no legislation here Facilitating information sharing extremism will be eroded if, in fact, we that proscribes their activity alongside and cooperative legal frameworks to cannot react to anything less than actual terrorists in overseas conflict zones as allow for multi-agency and multi state violence or the chance of some breach illegal. enforcement will be demanded in the of other criminal legislation. Adding to this risk is the Australian future. This is a tall order for New In 2014, the Countering Terrorist policy of deporting ex-pats including Zealand as it shrinks from the challenges Fighters Legislation Bill was passed, Zealanders with criminal convictions – this of terrorism in a new century, resorting amending a number of Acts allowing for will include any New Zealander convicted to terrorist legislation largely designed in 24-hour period of surveillance without in Australia of terrorism offences. the century just gone, with only minor warrant of those suspected of intentions Terrorism is a tactic open to use amendments making an unconvincing to travel to fight with jihadist groups, by anyone – jihadists have the media claim to currency.

Line of Defence 37 HOMELAND SECURITY

What’s the future for terrorism?

John Battersby of Massey University’s Centre for Defence and Security Studies writes that terrorism is a tactic, it’s evolving, and it’s not going away, with new technologies such as unmanned vehicles and artificial intelligence likely to enable the delivery of terror by remote control.

Terrorism has a long pedigree, predating all the religions Kurdistan may well be a renewed terrorist battlespace, that have become associated with it in modern times. It and one which the West will not be able to vilify so easily as has experienced iterations driven by ideologies entirely religious fanaticism. divorced from any religious belief, and it has been prompted The Catalans also appear set to make their statement of by political, economic, ethnic and ecological concerns and independence by referendum, which is not being greeted occasionally – arguably – by neither of these. enthusiastically by Spain. Spain’s history of political conflict The history of terrorism is multifaceted – it is not a purely and violence is lengthy and well known. If expectations religious phenomenon – and the future of terrorism will be no expressed are squashed in Catalan, there are no shortage of different. historical precedents to follow. The current period of Islamist inspired militancy may be New Zealand’s own region is not without nationalist a distinctly recognisable period in the history of terrorism, murmurings, with referenda pending for Bougainville and New fuelled in the foreseeable future by the failure of state regimes Caledonia – both territories which have histories of political in many cases across the Muslim world to act in the interests violence in living memory. of their citizens. But already the term ‘Buddhist Extremism’ If sectarian terrorist organisations re-emerge, they will has emerged in the context of state repression of a Muslim do so in modern guise. The jihadists may have revised minority population in Myanmar, indicating the possibility the terrorism playbook, but they do not own it. They have of a range of religious ideologies that could be bent to incite pioneered a new wave of volume-based aggravated violence, extremist violence. setting a bar of lethality against civilians that emerging Terrorism is a tactic, usually of the desperate, terrorist organisations will feel compelled to meet to be taken disenfranchised or entirely unpopular who perceive little other seriously. option than to resort to planned aggravated violence against Even if Jihadism declines it has already refashioned the ordinary people who pose no direct threat. It is a tactic that look of present and future terrorism. can be used by anyone. “We will not negotiate with terrorists” so most It has been used by revolutionaries, nationalists, criminals governments say, but most governments will – and the future and even pacifists. It has been used by governments of terrorism will continue to include talks where tangible against non-compliant populations, and has been used objectives exist, when both sides realise that winning by by democratically elected governments against other terrorism, or defeating it by military and enforcement action democratically elected governments to seek, preserve, advance alone, are both equally bleak, dangerous and uncertain. and protect a ‘national interest’. Terrorist offences will continue to attract the harshest of Terrorism in the future will remain a tactic in the tool penalties – but those convicted are likely to be released much box of those desperate to maintain a status quo, or desperate earlier than the terms of their sentences because terrorism is to change one where conventional options are seen as about context; when the context in which terrorism occurs unavailable. changes, the need to keep people imprisoned is perceived to It has been tempting to accept the notion of new terrorism be much less. as a permanent phenomenon and that older style sectarian Israel has released hundreds of convicted terrorists from terrorist organisations are a thing of the past. Iraq’s Kurds time to time as the political environment undulates. Large have now voted on independence, a prospect no one else in numbers of FARC prisoners have been released since 2015, the Middle East region welcomes. The Kurdish Peshmerga and prosecutions against others dropped under the negotiated are a professional, battle hardened and determined group with settlement in Colombia. foreign fighters among its ranks. The PKK is already regarded The current Islamist inspired militancy will last as a terrorist organisation and continues terrorist violence as long as prevailing local political and international against Turkey. conditions make it relevant. Its most dangerous aspect is

38 Line of Defence its unpredictability – leaderless jihad prompts individual or ISIS will probably disintegrate under military defeat, and small group actors to emerge in unexpected places, without the glaringly obvious failure of the Caliphate will leave it with the need for complex intelligence, weapons acquisition or a serious credibility problem. If the conditions which allowed planning networks. ISIS to germinate are not altered, it may be resurrected or It starkly exposes the vulnerability of free societies. But its something similar will take its place. It may migrate its centre ‘leaderless-ness’ is also its fundamental weakness – it has no to another geographical location, or it may decentralise and direction, no tangible earthly goal, and a leaderless movement split itself across the globe. cannot go anywhere. Whatever happens, the internet as a mode of spreading In 1986, a Police station in Melbourne was the target of subversive and dangerous ideas and images will be a defining a massive car bomb that exploded killing a police officer, characteristic of terrorist recruitment and inspiration until and wounding 23 other people – it was carried out by two the internet is superseded by something faster and even less criminals motivated by little more than the desire to express a police-able. hatred of police. In Charlottesville on 25 August 2017, a male Techniques of using cars, kitchen knives, and commercially with white supremacist views suddenly drove a vehicle into a available chemicals as weapons make terrorism much more crowd, killing one and injuring 19. Hauntingly similar to the accessible. These items have always been used by terrorists Melbourne toll, but with less forward planning, it was inspired – but modern media have made them more visible. With the by the same irrational hatred of something. coming of self-drive cars, pilotless aeroplanes and artificial There are several examples of other ‘lone wolves’ whose intelligence, techno-savvy terrorists may not need to be at the motivation was possibly not much different, but because scenes of their carnage in the future. they were Muslim – or belatedly claimed to be – their actual The future of terrorism is that it will remain the tactic of motives bear less scrutiny. The motive to act, the trigger to do the isolated and desperate. It will have little impact on the so and the decision taken to do it, may all manifest themselves political direction of most countries and will pose vastly less in rapid succession leading to “spur of the moment actual risk than the fear of it inspires. But it will not disappear. terrorism.” It will remain a fact of political life in many countries with an ‘Radicalisation’ is often asserted as a key motivator – but increasing global impact, and it will remain an evolutionary undergoing this ill-defined process is not necessarily a precursor phenomenon, adapting to conditions and opportunities as they to terrorism, nor is it necessary for terrorism to occur. emerge. One grim legacy of modern terrorism is its seemingly Terrorism will remain a deliberate tactical resort instant nature. Ubiquitous objects accessible to all of us have to force using improvised means in unlikely been shown to be weaponised and available to anyone with an circumstances against people who cannot axe to grind. ISIS’ use of the internet has had the same effect. defend themselves.

Line of Defence 39 HOMELAND SECURITY Protecting crowded places from terror attack The Australian Government has launched a new national strategy for protecting crowds from terror attack. Launched in August by Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, ‘Australia’s Strategy for Protecting Crowded Places from Terrorism’ places the onus for threat preparedness precariously on businesses, writes editor Nicholas Dynon.

At a press conference to launch the Australia. Its official launch, which made According to eminent Wellington- strategy, Prime Minister Turnbull said big news in the Australian press, received based security specialist and author terror attacks in Paris, London, Berlin scant coverage in the New Zealand of Protecting People in New Zealand, and Barcelona showed that terrorists media, and there has been no public Carlton Ruffell, the answer is yes. targeted crowded places. mention of it out of Wellington. “New Zealand,” he said, “has already According to the new document, Indeed, enquiries made by Line experienced targeted violence in places attacks on crowded places overseas, of Defence have revealed that despite like Aramoana and Ashburton, so our “demonstrate how basic weapons— the fanfare that accompanied the profile does warrant it.” including vehicles, knives, and document’s release across the Tasman, “There is nothing wrong with firearms — can be used by terrorists to very few security professionals in this piggy-backing on a bigger neighbour devastating effect.” Congested places country are aware of this ANZCTC with more resources to address these such as stadiums, shopping centres, strategy. issues and with whom we may need pedestrian malls, and major events, it In a way, this is unsurprising. It’s interoperability. However, it needs to explains, “will continue to be attractive widely acknowledged that New Zealand’s have a commitment to resources at New targets for terrorists.” terror threat profile is significantly Zealand’s end of it. Where those New The objective of the Strategy is to different to that of Australia, and that Zealand resources are is not clear in the “protect the lives of people working Australia’s threat level of ‘Probable’ documents.” in, using, and visiting crowded places places that country in an altogether Auckland-based Security Consultant by making these places more resilient.” higher risk context. Nevertheless, would and deputy chair of the New Zealand According to its authors, its success rests such a strategy be potentially relevant or chapter of ASIS International, Lincoln on “strong and sustainable partnerships helpful in the New Zealand context? Potter, agrees. “I think the strategy across Australia between governments and the private sector to better protect crowded places.”

Little-known in New Zealand Released by the Attorney-General’s Department in Canberra, the strategy was developed in conjunction with state and territory governments, local government, police and the private sector. Yet strangely, the document appears to have been published by the Australia New Zealand Counter Terrorism Committee (ANZCTC), a high-level body comprised of representatives from the Australian federal and state and territory governments and the New Zealand Government. New Zealand involvement, however, appears to have been in name only, with the document clearly focused on Carlton Ruffell, PSP CPP Lincoln Potter PSP

40 Line of Defence is potentially very relevant for New Isaac Kfir, head of the Counter- of care is being stretched to include acts Zealand and certainly presents a very terrorism Policy Centre at ASPI, has of terrorism and that this is not fair and good case for a wider uptake of our referred to the Strategy’s placement of the responsibility is being placed on the Protective Security Requirements responsibility for threat preparedness owners and operators.” (PSR),” he told Line of Defence. and resilience on the owners of “Obvious complaints would include “Do we want to experience a hostile businesses operating in crowded places cost of implementation and many would attack in a crowded place before such as worrying. argue that they cannot afford it and it is a method of attack makes it onto our “The strategy is too thin on therefore unreasonable.” threat profile? I think not.” detail to be a useful tool,” he wrote At the same time, he sees these The UK’s National Counter in The Strategist. “It places a great businesses as having a duty of care in Terrorism Security Office released deal of responsibility on the business the context of a terror attack. “People various protecting crowded places community, but it doesn’t explain what who are under threat and cannot egress from terrorism guidelines five years help will be given to businesses…” an area will take or seek shelter in prior to the Australians, and it is not “Owners and operators of crowded businesses, [so] the duty of care can inconceivable that developments in the places have the primary responsibility change very quickly. They can have international terror threat-scape might for protecting their sites,” states the an emergency egress by way of “back trigger an eventual cascading of such an Strategy, “including a duty of care to of house” not available under normal approach to New Zealand. So, what can take steps to protect people that work, operating conditions.” we learn from the UK and Australian use, or visit their site from a range of efforts? foreseeable threats, including terrorism.” Public-Private engagement Ruffell considers the strategy to The Strategy invites businesses to join Critiquing the strategy be reasonable in this regard. “Simply ‘State and Territory Crowded Places Although some critics have suggested finding out who operates a potentially Forums’, which are envisaged as “a that it represents more of a ‘placebo targeted area would be an arduous task. vehicle for fostering local networks and effect’ than an effective approach to The trick is letting operators know they partnerships to ensure all stakeholders resilience against terrorist attacks in are responsible and then where to get are as well connected as possible.” It public places, there has been muted information.” also indicates that businesses will receive criticism of the strategy among major According to Potter, any potential government support in implementing news outlets across the Tasman. By barrier to the uptake of the strategy the strategy. contrast, Australian counter-terrorism would probably fall in this area. “It As a result of the Pitt Review, which policy wonks have let loose. could be argued that the reasonable duty followed the 2007 flooding disaster in

Line of Defence 41 HOMELAND SECURITY

the UK, resilience forums were set up coordination is ideal, but that legislative, documents promote a DIY approach for each local government area in that financial and cultural factors undermine to security by untrained civilians? And country. Could such an engagement buy-in. could the shifting the responsibility model be of benefit in New Zealand? “I was involved in such forums onto businesses result in suboptimal Ruffell, who suggested such a model and they are great, but SMEs don’t compliance-driven outcomes? in an article on an intelligence-led typically engage,” she told Line of According to Ruffell, the Health and approach to the Rugby World Cup in Defence. SMEs either don’t have time Safety at Work Act 2015 (HASAWA) 2011, sees benefit but also difficulties – to participate and/or they don’t see it as makes it clear that in the New Zealand “it needs to happen but it’s hard to do.” an immediate priority. Thus, they rely on context, a Person Conducting a Business “These public-private intelligence government and regulation and do the or Undertaking (PCBU) must think of clearing houses are used in the United minimum. security. “If they are smart enough to States. I first saw one in an article on She told NZ Security Magazine back consider this threat to the space they securing the Democratic National in 2015 that investing for preparedness control and to look up these documents, Convention in 2008. So, I’m a big fan of tends to have to be driven from outside they would also be smart enough to this approach. the firm, not inside. “It tends to have to realise they need expert help.” “The problem in New Zealand is the come as a push factor, especially with “My main concern would be people paring of Police services to the absolute SMEs.” wishing to avoid cost, copying and minimum. To do a new thing means “If they are in a higher supply pasting these documents into their taking resources away from another chain, such as a supplier to Marks and own policies or standard operating area. The churn in staff also makes Spencer’s, their contracts may stipulate procedures without doing the homework establishing public-private relationships that all suppliers must follow their necessary to make these plans a success very difficult,” he said policies in many regards including risk or [without] ever drilling the procedure. Auckland University’s Dr Bridgette management,” she said. Having seen the security efforts of Sullivan Taylor, who researched SME In terms of SME thinking, a few shopping centres recently, this resilience to extreme events in Britain Sullivan-Taylor notes that activities is a real concern. Actually protecting as part of a UK Cabinet Office such as counter-terrorism, emergency people – to the right level – should be funded project, believes public-private management and recovery are seen as the focus of the security effort, not legal something of a public good. Businesses compliance.” tend to have an expectation that they can Potter is of the opinion that the outsource responsibility for these things audit and self-assessment documents are to government and that taxes should easy to understand and unlikely to pose be put towards protecting them against problems for business operators. But he even the most unlikely of exigencies. too warns of substandard outcomes “if business owners and operators choose Avoiding DIY security to do their own risk assessments and The Strategy provides a suite of implement their own protective security guidance documents relating to specific measures to avoid the cost of using threats, such as vehicular attacks, qualified professionals.” chemical attacks, improvised explosive devices and active shooters. Documents Noting Sullivan-Taylor’s comments include guidelines, security audits and that SMEs tend to have to be pushed self-assessment tools, which are aimed to act and otherwise do the minimum, at assisting owners and operators to we can expect the vast majority of understand and implement protective businesses to avoid what costs they security measures. can. Ultimately, in the absence of any Although the Strategy makes a legislated requirement to protect their half-hearted recommendation that sites from terror attack, most businesses business operators seek the advice will likely feign total ignorance of such a of an appropriately skilled licensed Strategy… despite whatever fanfare may Bridgette Sullivan-Taylor, Auckland Uni security consultant, could the guidance have accompanied its launch.

42 Line of Defence HOMELAND NEWS Survey shows Kiwis better prepared fuel through alternative routes by land, together in one purpose-built facility,” for disasters air and sea,” Energy and Resource Justice and Courts Minister Amy Adams 08 AUG: New Zealanders have never Minister Judith Collins said. said. been better prepared for disasters “It should be noted that the “It has been built to withstand according to the latest annual disaster Marsden Refinery to Auckland pipeline seismic events and contains special preparedness survey. Household while repaired, will be operating at 80 resiliency features to enable the preparedness for disasters has per cent capacity into the New Year. Emergency Operations Centre and 111 improved sharply since the Kaikoura However, the industry is confident that Call Centre to continue operating in earthquake, followed by a string of other the pipeline will be able to deliver the a major emergency, including a back- emergencies such as the Port Hills fires amounts of jet fuel airlines need to up power generator, 100,000 litres of and the Edgecumbe flooding. operate normally. portable water and 100,000 litres of “Current levels of preparedness sewerage storage.” are on par with the previous highest Peter Dunne fire association Following a public open day, agencies on record, which was following the keynote will begin moving in and it is expected Canterbury earthquakes,” said Minister 03 AUG: Outgoing Minister of Internal that the first public facing operations of Civil Defence Nathan Guy. Affairs, Peter Dunne gave the keynote will begin in mid-October. The results are the findings of the address at Forest and Rural Fire Colmar Brunton disaster preparedness Association NZ AGM, held at the Crowne Dairy industry body joins GIA survey for 2017, released by the Plaza Hotel, Auckland, on 2nd August biosecurity partnership Ministry of Civil Defence & Emergency Addressing members and senior 15 AUG: The Dairy Companies Management. The annual survey of FRFANZ and FENZ officials, Mr Dunne Association of New Zealand (DCANZ) 1,000 New Zealanders assesses disaster recognised FRFANZ’s 30th Anniversary has become the fifteenth and largest preparedness and the effectiveness of and the signing of a Memorandum of industry sector to join the Government our public education programme. Understanding between FRFANZ and Industry Agreement (GIA) biosecurity Mr Guy commented that the the UFBA one year previously. partnership. Ministry of Civil Defence & Emergency According to Mr Dunne, the MOU DCANZ is the national organisation Management revitalised its public enabled both parties to engage on behalf representing the dairy processor and education programme last year to make of their members in the ‘co-design’ process exporters sector, comprised of 11 preparation more relevant and easier. that has led to the creation of Fire and members responsible for 99% of the The survey also suggests the Emergency NZ (FENZ). “ ‘Co-design’ milk processed in New Zealand. Ministry’s recent tsunami and earthquake is a highly-progressive way of working “The dairy industry is a crucial part of safety campaign – which emphasises the that recognises the skills, knowledge, and New Zealand’s economy, making up over messages “Long or Strong, Get Gone” expertise of our workforce.” a third of all New Zealand total exports. and “Drop Cover Hold” - has been “But there is no getting past the fact It is vital we work together to prepare effective in reinforcing the right actions a large proportion of its 14,000 people and respond to biosecurity threats,” said to take in the event of an earthquake. are volunteers – who represent 80% Primary Industries Minister Nathan Guy. The survey shows that 83% of of its operational workforce,” he said. “The discovery of the cattle disease respondents know that they needed “They are the people this country relies Mycoplasma bovis near Waimate is a real to evacuate when a long or strong on to provide nationwide coverage, reminder of how important biosecurity earthquake happens near the coast. particularly in rural areas.” is to the dairy sector. It’s good practice He noted that when the Transition for all farmers to have an on-farm Jet fuel allocations return to normal team surveyed Principal Rural Fire biosecurity plan. 30 SEP: A return to 100 per cent jet fuel Officers (PRFOs) and their teams “As the recent Biosecurity 2025 allocations at Auckland Airport arrived in 2016, they found that more than Direction Statement outlines, biosecurity just in time for the start of the school 35% of the country’s rural appliances is a shared responsibility. We need holidays for airlines and their customers. and tankers are over 25 years old, everyone working together sharing their Two weeks previously the fuel approximately 50% of rural fire expertise and experience. allocation was reduced to 30 percent buildings have no phone, 30% have no Earlier this year I was proud to following the disruption to supply through running water, and 10% have no power. announce an $18 million boost to the Marsden Refinery to Auckland biosecurity in Budget 2017, meaning the pipeline. Fuel allocations were increased Christchurch’s Justice Precinct total biosecurity budget is now just under incrementally to 50 percent then 80 officially open a quarter of a billion – the highest ever.” percent as alternatives to transporting fuel 12 SEP: Christchurch’s state-of-the-art Other signatories to the GIA to Auckland Airport were found. Justice and Emergency Services Precinct include: Vegetables NZ, TomatoesNZ, “Getting back to 100 per cent fuel has been officially opened by Prime Kiwifruit Vine Health, Pipfruit NZ, NZ allocation this morning is great news Minister Bill English. Pork, NZ Equine Health Assoc., Onions for the start of the school holidays. It is “The Precinct is the largest multi- NZ, Forestry Owners Association, the result of the cooperation between agency government co-location project NZ Avocado Growers’ Assoc., NZ government and industry in managing in New Zealand’s history and brings all Citrus Growers Inc, Potatoes NZ, NZ a complex logistical exercise in moving regional justice and emergency services Winegrowers, and MPI.

Line of Defence 43 REVIEWS & EVENTS

Review: China as a Polar Great Power

In her latest book, Anne-Marie Brady analyses China’s race to the Poles and what it reveals about China’s global ambitions and domestic imperatives, writes Kyle Hutzler.

Title: China as a Polar Great Power guides readers through the principles of polar governance, Author: Anne-Marie Brady the region’s strategic attractions, how China is positioning Publisher: Cambridge University Press, August 2017 itself to take advantage, and what it means for the rest of the world. Climate change is normally seen as a global threat, yet melting Both poles offer tremendous advantages to the countries ice in the Arctic and Antarctic regions for better or worse able to access them. As reduced ice cover offers a less opens new passageways for shipping and access to tremendous dangerous sea route through the Arctic, China could be poised natural resources. It is not just those who border these regions to save hundreds of billions in shipping costs to Europe and that are taking notice. China has announced to the world that diversify its dependence from the strategically vulnerable it too will be a polar power. Straits of Malacca. Militarily, if an ice-capable Chinese nuclear As the closest thing there is to a blank slate in geopolitics, sub were one day positioned in the Arctic its proximity would China’s polar activities are also closely examined for what compromise America and Russia’s strategic deterrent. they might reveal about the future of global governance. But for a resource-hungry China, it is the promise of vast This new book by University of Canterbury Professor Anne- resources that most animates its efforts. Chinese scientists Marie Brady on China’s growing involvement in the poles have called Antarctica a “black treasure house” of coal, oil, and other mineral reserves. The regions are also founts of fish and freshwater resources. As a Chinese military spokesperson once asked, “China’s population accounts for one-fifth of the world’s population, so why shouldn’t we get a fifth of the interests in the Antarctic and Arctic?” Positioning the poles as a common resource allows China to sidestep the fact that it is, geographically, far from a polar nation. To realise its polar ambitions, China must navigate governance arrangements specific to the poles as well as more general ones governing seas and the environment. The most prominent governing body is the Arctic Council, comprised of eight permanent members and eleven non- Arctic observers to which China was permitted to join in 2007. In the Arctic, the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea also has significant influence. In Antarctica, the Cold War-era treaty governing the continent sidesteps sovereignty claims that existed at the time of signing, but prohibits other countries such as China from establishing new ones. Given its emphasis on resources, China’s greatest concern is any effort to designate areas as off-reach. In the Antarctic, bans on mineral exploitation will likely not be renegotiated Professor Anne-Marie Brady is Professor in the Department of Politics until 2048, when the whole agreement can be revisited. Until and International Relations at the University of Canterbury, New then, “science is the currency of Antarctic” politics, Brady Zealand, a Global Fellow at the Woodrow Wilson Centre in Washington writes, and China is investing massively and collaborating DC, and a Senior Fellow at the China Policy Institute at the University of Nottingham. In 2014 she was appointed to a two-year term on the widely. World Economic Forum’s Global Action Council on the Arctic. A highly In 2005 China’s top polar scientist expressed his hope that regarded specialist on Chinese politics as well as polar politics, she is his country would be a “polar great power.” By 2014, when Xi editor-in-chief of The Polar Journal, and has published ten books and Jinping’s affirmed that phrase for the first time, China’s polar more than forty scholarly papers on a range of issues. investments had experienced a “great leap” but still trailed

44 Line of Defence The most telling detail in this book may appear on its cover: a map produced by a Chinese geophysicist and adopted for official use by the military in 2006. In it, the poles are positioned such that they are no longer the extremes of the Earth. Instead, America is, and China is at the center of the world. China’s call for an open Arctic can at times seem at odds with the position it takes regarding the South China Sea. Brady cites an internal government report in which China declares it respects Arctic nations’ claims and sees no contradiction with its own in the South China Sea. Brady does not further elaborate the issue, but China’s sensitivity to the appearance of a contradiction may affect how it engages with the International Tribunal of the Law of the Sea. Brady’s academic style is well-suited for a topic that is easily subject to dramatisation. She shines at reading through the lines of China’s words and actions—especially the disconnects between how China talks about the poles domestically and when in front of foreign audiences. Brady’s examination of the dozens of agencies involved in China’s polar activities and the intersection of the party, military, and state is an excellent single-issue case study of how China’s party-state works—and doesn’t. Her four-page summary of how China’s most frequently used foreign policy maxims pertain to the Arctic—from face-seeking to “killing the chicken to scare the monkeys”—is illuminating. At the same time, the book, primarily a compilation of her previously published articles, sometimes loses a sense of coherency; the low-quality reproduction of the Chinese maps also offers little. Brady offers limited comparative analysis of other countries policies and activities in the Arctic, but when she judges that America has under-invested in the Poles, she erroneously claims the United States has spent $17 trillion on most nations involved. China now has four Antarctic bases the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan as the reason. built with an additional one planned, three arctic research Brady believes that China’s actions in the Poles stations, a powerful icebreaker with a second soon to be demonstrate that it is unlikely to directly oppose existing deployed, and an Antarctic capable plane. international norms, but will not hesitate to go around or Brady estimates that China is likely spending USD 30 ignore those that don’t suit its interests. million in annual operating costs for expedition at both It is when new norms are being formed that she expects poles, up from an average of $5 million per year as late as China to most press its influence. She defaults to the stock 2003. Scientific research likely commands another 30 million recommendation that countries continue to engage with per year, still a fraction of the $129 million the US National China. If “Chinese ambitions are successful, the inevitable Science Foundation spent. outcome is a Sino-centric world that will make China the Despite these efforts, Chinese polar science output core node in a new globalized economic order,” Brady remains “quite weak” in Brady’s assessment. But that is writes. secondary to the fact that each new base gives China effective China’s growing assertiveness in its region often colours control over vast amounts of territory. And while Antarctica is how its increased activity elsewhere is perceived. While China not militarised, the American and Chinese militaries both have is sensitive to international regimes that it believes unduly strong presences for logistical purposes. privilege legacy powers or constitute improper interference China’s domestic propaganda apparatus is also working in its domestic affairs, it doesn’t assert much in the way of to Sinicise the poles. In doing so, it draws on the same mix sweeping global strategic interests. Instead, its interest in the of historicism and national pride that it applies elsewhere. world beyond its region remains primarily exercised through Questions about Antarctica’s mineral resources appear on high the prism of its economy and its needs for stability. school geography tests. China, for now, isn’t asserting itself as a global power so The government plays up its Nationalist predecessor’s much as it is defending the reality of the global presence an signing of a 1925 treaty guaranteeing China an economic economy of its size demands. Brady shows that reality is as interest in Norway’s Svalbard archipelago. Documentaries true in the poles as it is on every other continent. and other television programs play up China’s interests and Kyle Hutzler is an MBA candidate at Stanford University, and was are acutely sensitive to any sign the country is being excluded previously with the consultancy McKinsey & Company. from its fair share. Reprinted by kind permission of the Asian Review of Books

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