Understanding and Exploiting Commodity Currencies a Study Using Time Series Regression
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U.S. Energy in the 21St Century: a Primer
U.S. Energy in the 21st Century: A Primer March 16, 2021 Congressional Research Service https://crsreports.congress.gov R46723 SUMMARY R46723 U.S. Energy in the 21st Century: A Primer March 16, 2021 Since the start of the 21st century, the U.S. energy system has changed tremendously. Technological advances in energy production have driven changes in energy consumption, and Melissa N. Diaz, the United States has moved from being a net importer of most forms of energy to a declining Coordinator importer—and a net exporter in 2019. The United States remains the second largest producer and Analyst in Energy Policy consumer of energy in the world, behind China. Overall energy consumption in the United States has held relatively steady since 2000, while the mix of energy sources has changed. Between 2000 and 2019, consumption of natural gas and renewable energy increased, while oil and nuclear power were relatively flat and coal decreased. In the same period, production of oil, natural gas, and renewables increased, while nuclear power was relatively flat and coal decreased. Overall energy production increased by 42% over the same period. Increases in the production of oil and natural gas are due in part to technological improvements in hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling that have facilitated access to resources in unconventional formations (e.g., shale). U.S. oil production (including natural gas liquids and crude oil) and natural gas production hit record highs in 2019. The United States is the largest producer of natural gas, a net exporter, and the largest consumer. Oil, natural gas, and other liquid fuels depend on a network of over three million miles of pipeline infrastructure. -
Analiza Kretanja Cijene Nafte Obzirom Na Pandemiju COVID-A 19 I Usporedba S Povijesnim Kretanjem Na Svjetskom Tržištu
Analiza kretanja cijene nafte obzirom na pandemiju COVID-a 19 i usporedba s povijesnim kretanjem na svjetskom tržištu Njirić, Marin Undergraduate thesis / Završni rad 2020 Degree Grantor / Ustanova koja je dodijelila akademski / stručni stupanj: University of Zagreb, Faculty of Mining, Geology and Petroleum Engineering / Sveučilište u Zagrebu, Rudarsko-geološko-naftni fakultet Permanent link / Trajna poveznica: https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:169:342279 Rights / Prava: In copyright Download date / Datum preuzimanja: 2021-09-26 Repository / Repozitorij: Faculty of Mining, Geology and Petroleum Engineering Repository, University of Zagreb SVEUČILIŠTE U ZAGREBU RUDARSKO-GEOLOŠKO-NAFTNI FAKULTET Preddiplomski studij naftnog rudarstva ANALIZA KRETANJA CIJENE NAFTE OBZIROM NA PANDEMIJU COVID-a 19 I USPOREDBA S POVIJESNIM KRETANJEM NA SVJETSKOM TRŽIŠTU Završni rad Marin Njirić N4350 Zagreb, 2020 Sveučilište u Zagrebu Završni rad Rudarsko-geološko-naftni fakultet ANALIZA KRETANJA CIJENE NAFTE OBZIROM NA PANDEMIJU COVID-a 19 I USPOREDBA S POVIJESNIM KRETANJEM NA SVJETSKOM TRŽIŠTU Marin Njirić Završni rad je izrađen: Sveučilište u Zagrebu Rudarsko-geološko-naftni fakultet Zavod za naftno-plinsko inženjerstvo i energetiku Pierottijeva 6, 10 000 Zagreb Sažetak U svjetskoj ekonomiji nafta zauzima jednu od najvažnijih uloga za gospodarski razvoj svake zemlje. S obzirom da je izuzetno bitna sirovina, njena cijena utječe na sve grane gospodarstva, kretanja svjetskih političkih i gospodarskih trendova, kretanje indeksa na burzama te stanje svjetskog gospodarstva općenito. Tijekom povijesti, događali su se razni preokreti cijena nafte, čime bi mnoge zemlje ili tvrtke profitirale ili upale u krizu. U razdoblju COVID-a, cijena je drastično potonula te se u ovom radu prati taj pad cijene u usporedbi s cijenama tijekom prijašnjih kriza u povijesti. -
Commodity Currencies and Global Trade∗
After the Tide: Commodity Currencies and Global Trade∗ Robert Ready,y Nikolai Roussanovzand Colin Wardx October 24, 2016 Abstract The decade prior to the Great Recession saw a boom in global trade and rising trans- portation costs. High-yielding commodity exporters' currencies appreciated, boosting carry trade profits. The Global Recession sharply reversed these trends. We interpret these facts with a two-country general equilibrium model that features specialization in production and endogenous fluctuations in trade costs. Slow adjustment in the shipping sector generates boom-bust cycles in freight rates and, as a consequence, in currency risk premia. We validate these predictions using global shipping data. Our calibrated model explains about 57 percent of the narrowing of interest rate differentials post-crisis. Keywords: shipping, trade costs, carry trade, currency risk premia, exchange rates, interna- tional risk sharing, commodity trade JEL codes: G15, G12, F31 ∗We benefitted from comments and suggestions by Andy Abel, George Alessandria (the editor), Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel, Doireann Fitzgerald (the discussant), Ivan Shaliastovich, and conference participants in the Carnegie-Rochester-NYU Conference on Public Policy, for which this paper was prepared. ySimon School of Business, University of Rochester zThe Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, and NBER xCarlson School of Management, University of Minnesota 1 1 Introduction The decade prior to the Great Recession saw a boom in global trade, including a rapid rise in commodity prices, trade volumes, and, consequently, in the cost of transporting goods around the world. At the same time currencies of commodity-exporting currencies appreciated, boosting the carry trade profits in foreign exchange markets (commodity currencies typically earn higher interest rates, making them attractive to investors).1 The onset of the Global Recession led to a sharp reversal in all of these trends, with only a weak recovery subsequently. -
Chapter 1: Energy Challenges September 2015 1 Energy Challenges
QUADRENNIAL TECHNOLOGY REVIEW AN ASSESSMENT OF ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES AND RESEARCH OPPORTUNITIES Chapter 1: Energy Challenges September 2015 1 Energy Challenges Energy is the Engine of the U.S. Economy Quadrennial Technology Review 1 1 Energy Challenges 1.1 Introduction The United States’ energy system, vast in size and increasingly complex, is the engine of the economy. The national energy enterprise has served us well, driving unprecedented economic growth and prosperity and supporting our national security. The U.S. energy system is entering a period of unprecedented change; new technologies, new requirements, and new vulnerabilities are transforming the system. The challenge is to transition to energy systems and technologies that simultaneously address the nation’s most fundamental needs—energy security, economic competitiveness, and environmental responsibility—while providing better energy services. Emerging advanced energy technologies can do much to address these challenges, but further improvements in cost and performance are important.1 Carefully targeted research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RDD&D) are essential to achieving these improvements and enabling us to meet our nation’s energy objectives. This report, the 2015 Quadrennial Technology Review (QTR 2015), examines science and technology RDD&D opportunities across the entire U.S. energy system. It focuses primarily on technologies with commercialization potential in the mid-term and beyond. It frames various tradeoffs that all energy technologies must balance, across such dimensions as diversity and security of supply, cost, environmental impacts, reliability, land use, and materials use. Finally, it provides data and analysis on RDD&D pathways to assist decision makers as they set priorities, subject to budget constraints, to develop more secure, affordable, and sustainable energy services. -
Economic and Political Effects on Currency Clustering Dynamics
Quantitative Finance,2019 Vol. 19, No. 5, 705–716, https: //doi.org/10.1080/14697688.2018.1532101 ©2018iStockphotoLP Economic and political effects on currency clustering dynamics M. KREMER †‡§*††, A. P. BECKER §¶††,I.VODENSKA¶, H. E. STANLEY§ and R. SCHÄFER‡ ∥ †Chair for Energy Trading and Finance, University of Duisburg-Essen, Universitätsstraße 12, 45141 Essen, Germany ‡Faculty of Physics, University of Duisburg-Essen, Lotharstraße 1, 47048 Duisburg, Germany §Center for Polymer Studies and Department of Physics, Boston University, 590 Commonwealth Avenue, Boston, MA 02215, USA ¶Department of Administrative Sciences, Metropolitan College, Boston University, 1010 Commonwealth Avenue, Boston, MA 02215, USA Research and Prototyping, Arago GmbH, Eschersheimer Landstraße 526-532, 60433 Frankfurt am Main, Germany ∥ (Received 20 December 2017; accepted 7 September 2018; published online 13 December 2018) The symbolic performance of a currency describes its position in the FX markets independent of a base currency and allows the study of central bank policy and the assessment of economic and political developments 1. Introduction currency to another currency, using their assets in the mar- ket to accomplish a fixed exchange rate. If a central bank does Similar to other financial markets, exchange rates between not intervene, its currency is considered free-floating, mean- different currencies are determined by the laws of supply ing that the exchange rate is mostly determined by market and demand in the forex market. Additionally, market partic- forces. Some central banks allow their currency to float freely ipants (financial institutions, traders, and investors) consider within a certain range, in a so-called managed float regime. macroeconomic factors such as interest rates and inflation The value of any given currency is expressed with respect to assess the value of a currency. -
Introducing Aceon and Launching Our Virtual Power Plant
Introducing AceOn And Launching Our Virtual Power Plant APSE Webinar 10 November 2020 AceOn Group +44 (0)1952 293 388 Unit 9B “Offering solutions today for [email protected] tomorrow’s world” Stafford Park 12 Telford www.aceongroup.com TF3 3BJ 1 INTRODUCING THE ACEON & RENEWERGY TEAM Richard Partington – Managing Director of AceOn Energy. Previously over 30 years in local government including 8 years as Managing Director of Telford & Wrekin Council. Mark Thompson – Director. Over 30 years’ experience in Battery Energy Storage and the design, manufacture and supply of batteries and battery packs. Loic Hares – Partner. Over 6 years’ experience working for ‘Big 6’ energy providers, acting as a consultant in the UK energy industry, and helping energy start-ups build successful operations Alex Thompson – Sales Director. 8 years’ experience in Energy storage, batteries and battery packs “AceOn and Renewergy have a unique combination of a wealth of experience across the public and private sectors as well in-depth knowledge of the battery storage and energy sectors” CONTENTS OF TODAY’S WEBINAR THE FORMAL LAUNCH OF RENEWERGY – ACEON’S VIRTUAL POWER PLANT 1. Overview of the Electricity Market, Issues, Challenges & Opportunities – Dr Neil Williams 2. Overview of AceOn & Introducing RENEWERGY, Our Virtual Power Plant – Richard Partington 3. How RENEWERGY Works In Detail – Loic Hares 4. Explaining The Hardware Behind RENEWERGY – NOT ALL BATTERIES ARE THE SAME! – Alex Thompson 5. Summary of The Benefits of RENEWERGY – Richard Partington 6. Questions 3 DR NEIL WILLIAMS Our Special Guest today – DR NEIL WILLIAMS Neil is an investor and advisor in the energy, cleantech and mobility sectors. -
The Chilean Peso Exchange-Rate Carry Trade and Turbulence
The Chilean peso exchange-rate carry trade and turbulence Paulo Cox and José Gabriel Carreño Abstract In this study we provide evidence regarding the relationship between the Chilean peso carry trade and currency crashes of the peso against other currencies. Using a rich dataset containing information from the local Chilean forward market, we show that speculation aimed at taking advantage of the recently large interest rate differentials between the peso and developed- country currencies has led to several episodes of abnormal turbulence, as measured by the exchange-rate distribution’s skewness coeffcient. In line with the interpretative framework linking turbulence to changes in the forward positions of speculators, we fnd that turbulence is higher in periods during which measures of global uncertainty have been particularly high. Keywords Currency carry trade, Chile, exchange rates, currency instability, foreign-exchange markets, speculation JEL classification E31, F41, G15, E24 Authors Paulo Cox is a senior economist in the Financial Policy Division of the Central Bank of Chile. [email protected]. José Gabriel Carreño is with the Financial Research Group of the Financial Policy Division of the Central Bank of Chile. [email protected] 72 CEPAL Review N° 120 • December 2016 I. Introduction Between 15 and 23 September 2011, the Chilean peso depreciated against the United States dollar by about 8.2% (see fgure 1). The magnitude of this depreciation was several times greater than the average daily volatility of the exchange rate for these currencies between 2002 and 2012.1 No events that would affect any fundamental factor that infuences the price relationship between these currencies seems to have occurred that would trigger this large and abrupt adjustment. -
Using Four Different Online Media Sources to Forecast the Crude Oil Price
Using Four Different Online Media Sources to Forecast the Crude Oil Price Elshendy, M., Fronzetti Colladon, A., Battistoni, E. & Gloor, P. A. This is the accepted manuscript after the review process, but prior to final layout and copyediting. Please cite as: Elshendy, M., Fronzetti Colladon, A., Battistoni, E. & Gloor, P. A. (2018). Using Four Different Online Media Sources to Forecast the Crude Oil Price. Journal of Information Science, 44(3), 408-421. https://doi.org/10.1177/0165551517698298 This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution- NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, PO Box 1866, Mountain View, CA 94042, USA. 2 Using Four Different Online Media Sources to Forecast the Crude Oil Price Mohammed Elshendy Department of Enterprise Engineering, University of Rome Tor Vergata, Italy. Andrea Fronzetti Colladon Department of Enterprise Engineering, University of Rome Tor Vergata, Italy. Elisa Battistoni Department of Enterprise Engineering, University of Rome Tor Vergata, Italy. Peter A. Gloor MIT Center for Collective Intelligence, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, US. Abstract This study looks for signals of economic awareness on online social media and tests their significance in economic predictions. The study analyses, over a period of two years, the relationship between the West Texas Intermediate daily crude oil price and multiple predictors extracted from Twitter, Google Trends, Wikipedia, and the Global Data on Events, Language, and Tone database (GDELT). Semantic Analysis is applied to study the sentiment, emotionality and complexity of the language used. -
Is There Any Link Between Commodity Price and Monetary Policy? Evidence from Australia
View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Research Papers in Economics Economic AnAlysis & Policy, Vol. 41 no. 3, dEcEmbEr 2011 Is there any Link Between Commodity Price and Monetary Policy? Evidence from Australia A.F.M. Kamrul Hassan Department of Finance & Banking, University of Rajshahi, Bangladesh and Ruhul A. Salim1 School of Economics & Finance, Curtin Business School (CBS), Curtin University, Perth, WA 6845, Australia (Email: [email protected]) Abstract: The aim of this paper is to examine whether the commodity prices predict inflation, unemployment and short term interest rate in Australia. Advanced time series econometric modeling such as vector autoregressive model, cointegration and granger causality are used for this purpose. The empirical results show that three commodity prices (COMRL, COMNRL and COMBSMTL) precede inflation. However, no evidence of reverse causation is found. These findings have important implication for monetary authority. Inflation targeting experience has so far been hit by positive supply shocks. In case of negative supply shock, commodity price may be useful in singling out the likely direction of inflation. I. INTROduCTION There have been a good number of studies pondering over the role of commodity price in formulating or at least in conducting monetary policy. In other words, the role of commodity price has been examined as a monetary policy target variable as well as an information variable. The discussion of commodity price in connection with monetary policy surfaced in the 1980s when the growth of monetary aggregates as an intermediate target variable became less dependable. -
Results and Outlook
Results and Outlook February 2021 TotalEnergies : More energy, Less emissions Safety, Total’s core value Cornerstone of operational efficiency & sustainability Protecting our employees and partners Total Recordable Injury Rate for Total and peers* Per million man-hours 65 M masks delivered to 110 countries 1.5 7 M gloves delivered to 50 countries 1. 05 1.0 Hydroalcoholic gel produced in 6 countries 0.74 COVID impact on million hours worked: 0. only 8% less than 2019 0.5 73 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 One fatality in 2020 Continuity of operations * Peers: BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell 2020 Results and Outlook | 3 Transforming Total into a broad energy company : TotalEnergies Gases • Grow LNG (#2 player) and develop renewable gas (biogas / clean H 2) • Promote natural gas for power and mobility Renewables & Electricity • Accelerate investments in low carbon electricity primarily from renewables • Integrate along the electricity chain (production, storage, trading, supply) Liquids • Focus investments on low cost oil and renewable fuels (biofuels, SAF…) • Adapt refining capacity and sales to demand in Europe Carbon Sinks • Invest in carbon sinks (NBS and CCUS) Total will become TotalEnergies creating long-term value for shareholders 2020 Results and Outlook | 4 Growing energy production Mboe/d PJ/d 4 Electrons ~120 TWh Renewable gas 20 3 Gas 2 10 Renewable fuels 1 Oil 2019 2030 LNG and Electricity driving Profitable Growth 2020 Results and Outlook | 5 Growing sales while adapting to demand Energy sold to our customers PJ 12,000 % in sales -
Causes, Consequences and Lessons from the Global Financial Crisis
CAUSES, CONSEQUENCES AND LESSONS FROM THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS © CA. Rajkumar S. Adukia www.carajkumarradukia.com CONTENTS Chapter Title No I Meaning and Types of Financial crisis II Key terms and Explanations III Briefing on Wall Street crisis of 1929 and Great depression 1929 IV Great depression 1929 and The Current crisis V Asian financial crisis1997 VI Financial crisis of 2007-08 VII United States Housing Bubble and Sub-prime lending VIII Housing Boom and Bust IX Securitization and inaccurate credit rating practices X Federal takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac XI Bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers XII Collapse of Merrill Lynch, AIG, Washington Mutual (WaMu) and Wachovia XIII Link between problems in sub-prime mortgage and liquidity crisis XIV Regulatory responses to the sub-prime crisis XV Impact of the Financial Crisis and Actions Taken XVI Use of Fair value Accounting in the context of the global financial crisis XVII Impact of the Financial Crisis on India XVIII Action taken by the Indian Government and regulatory authorities XIX Lessons from financial crisis 1 This is one of the most tumultuous times on record in the global financial markets. The financial landscape is going through a period of upheaval with some major firms folding, other operations merging and a limited number of companies in both the Europe and the US, being rescued by governments. Chapter I Meaning and Types of Financial crisis The financial crisis in the US, the worst since the Great Depression of 1929, is threatening to reach perilous proportions. The collapse of the big five financial giants on Wall Street — Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, AIG, Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch — with revenues ankrupt nearly $322 billion in 2007, followed by two of the largest banks — Washington Mutual (WaMu) and Wachovia — has sent shock waves through global financial markets. -
Multiscale Analysis Framework for the Iowa Water-Energy-Food Nexus
Iowa State University Capstones, Theses and Graduate Theses and Dissertations Dissertations 2021 Multiscale analysis framework for the Iowa Water-Energy-Food nexus Weiquan Luo Iowa State University Follow this and additional works at: https://lib.dr.iastate.edu/etd Recommended Citation Luo, Weiquan, "Multiscale analysis framework for the Iowa Water-Energy-Food nexus" (2021). Graduate Theses and Dissertations. 18546. https://lib.dr.iastate.edu/etd/18546 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Iowa State University Capstones, Theses and Dissertations at Iowa State University Digital Repository. It has been accepted for inclusion in Graduate Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of Iowa State University Digital Repository. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Multiscale analysis framework for the Iowa Water-Energy-Food nexus by Weiquan Luo A thesis submitted to the graduate faculty in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE Major: Agricultural and Biological Engineering Program of Study Committee: Amy L. Kaleita, Co-major Professor Adina Howe, Co-major Professor Philip M. Dixon The student author, whose presentation of the scholarship herein was approved by the program of study committee, is solely responsible for the content of this thesis. The Graduate College will ensure this thesis is globally accessible and will not permit alterations after a degree is conferred. Iowa State University Ames, Iowa 2021 Copyright © Weiquan Luo, 2021. All rights reserved. ii DEDICATION This dissertation is dedicated to Chenxi Zhang, whose support and encouragement made the completion of this work possible and my parents, Yongde Luo and Huiying Chen, whose trust strengthen me to overcome all challenges along this way.