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Chinese Natural Gas Market: the New Battleground

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Chinese Natural Gas Market: the New Battleground MIEF – Capstone Project Jason Ho, Rui Ma Chinese Natural Gas Market: The New Battleground Jason Ho, Rui Ma Supervisor: Professor Daniel P. Ahn Client: Mercuria Energy Group Ltd 1 MIEF – Capstone Project Jason Ho, Rui Ma Report Highlights • China has emerged as a major player in global commodity markets as it consumes a significant share of global commodities. A more telling statistic is the astounding percentage of commodities consumption growth (of the past 15 years) attributable to China, which exceeds 100% for certain commodity classes. • Although commodities analysts agree that the world is entering a period of downturn in the commodity supercycle, the outlook is less certain for natural gas markets as natural gas markets are regionalized, rather than globalized. • China’s natural gas market is at a crossroad. On one hand, major natural gas production projects, both domestic and foreign, are slated to online in the next decade. On the other hand, demand is set to increase in the long run as the Chinese government strives for balanced and sustainable economic development. • Uncertainties surround both Chinese natural gas demand and supply. On the demand side, the National Development Reform Commission (NDRC) had classified residential, commercial and transportation sectors into “favored” categories, where consumption growth will be promoted. Consumption for industrial feedstock will be scaled back. • On the supply side, major uncertainties surround the growth of domestic shale gas given the unfavorable operating environment and geological challenges surrounding existing shale plays. Shale development is key to the natural gas balance in China for 2030 and beyond. For imports, Russian gas pipelines are poised to be game-changers as large volumes contracted at competitive prices render the supply curve to be much more elastic than before. Pipeline gas will also be setting the price floor. As a result, liquefied natural gas (LNG) is likely to be commercially viable during peak demand seasons. • In synthesis, should all projected supplies materialize, China will have “over-contracted” natural gas supply until 2030 – when legacy LNG contracts begin to expire. • With our forecast model, we examined three different scenarios that could potentially make an impact on the Chinese natural gas pricing in 2025 – a decade from now. o Russian Delay – This scenario considers the possibility where the Power of Siberia pipeline experiences construction delays due to obstacles surrounding the geopolitical relations as well as the technical challenges in developing greenfield gas projects in Eastern Siberia. A delay in the Russian pipeline has the effect of shrinking import supply and increasing natural gas price, particularly for the southern and coastal regions. o Shale Boom – This scenario considers the possibility where shale development is successful, resulting in an explosion of shale gas production in the decade spanning from 2020 to 2030. The shale boom scenario considered has limited effect on the natural gas pricing in China for 2025, although Turkmen gas supplies and Russian gas supplies will be played against each other. o Demand Boom – This scenario considers the possibility where demand for natural gas grows at a faster rate between 2015 and 2020 as China continues to commit to sustainable economic development through favorable market reforms in the 13th Five Year Plan. In this scenario, price of natural gas inevitably increases, but only to a point where Qatari gas remains displaced in pricing terms. 2 MIEF – Capstone Project Jason Ho, Rui Ma Executive Summary China and the Commodity Cycle of the 21st Century Along with the growth of emerging market economies, China’s meteoric economic growth for the past three decades has led to a demand boom across most commodities. While suppliers in some sectors were able to ramp up production quickly, capital-intensive sectors, such as the oil & gas industry, took a longer time to adjust, resulting to a surge in commodity prices in the run up to the global financial crisis of 2008. Prices adjusted downward sharply with the onset of the financial crisis, only to have emerging market economies leading a second bout of demand boom, which in turn, reversed the decline of commodity prices beginning in late 2009. Just when commodity prices were about to reach new peaks in 2012, investments made in early-to- mid 2000s came online. The resulting supply glut of commodities led to a decline of prices across most commodity sectors. Expectations surrounding China’s appetite for commodities were, once again, critical in this downward price adjustment, as the Xi administration’s goal in achieving more balanced and sustainable economic growth were deemed to have a dampening effect on demand growth of commodities in the long run. 60%# 56%$ 500%# 53%$ 448%$ 51%$ 450%# 48%$ 50%# 47%$ 50%$ 400%# 350%# 40%# 300%# 31%$ 31%$ 30%# 27%$ 209%$ 250%# 20%$ 200%# 20%# 123%$ 150%# 12%$ 83%$ 94%$ 83%$ 5%$ 100%# 10%# 47%$ 43%$ 44%$ 25%$ 16%$ 16%$ 50%# 0%# 0%# Coal$ Oil$ Natural$Gas$ Corn$ Wheat$ Meal$ Plant$Oil$ Copper$Aluminum$ ZinC$ NiCkel$ Steel$ China's$Share$in$2014$(LHS)$ China's$Share$in$Growth$of$ConsumpMon$(from$2000$N$2014)$(RHS)$ While keen observers of the commodity markets are in agreement that commodity prices should remain subdued at current levels in the near future, the outlook for natural gas is slightly trickier to forecast to say the very least. Unlike most other commodity markets, which are globally interconnected, the market for natural gas remains highly fragmented and regionalized. In each region, institutions and policies differ, just as the fundamentals of regional demand and supply. With China dominating both the growth in consumption and production in the decades to come (even with moderated economic growth), its natural gas balance, as well as its institutional and regulatory reforms, will have far-reaching effects in the price of natural gas in Asia and perhaps the rest of the world. With increased substitutability in the use of natural resources, China’s natural gas market outlook might also have secondary effects on other related commodities, such as coal and fertilizers. China’s Natural Gas Balance On the demand side, even with moderated economic growth in the decades to come, China’s demand for natural gas is likely to grow faster than before. This is because sustainable economic development requires a 3 MIEF – Capstone Project Jason Ho, Rui Ma greater focus on the environment, which in turn requires China to move away from its heavy reliance on coal and crude oil, despite being heavily endowed with the former. Cognizant of the fact that sudden demand surge will lead to shortages of natural gas, the NDRC had restricted the use of natural gas as an industrial feedstock and gave priority to residential, transportation, electricity generation sectors. Existing industrial users are also encouraged to switch away from coal and oil. On the supply side, the Chinese government has been increasing and diversifying its supply sources, in bid to rid itself of excessive dependence on Middle Eastern imports and transportation through the Straits of Malacca. With significant investments in domestic shale, multiple pipeline contracts signed with Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Myanmar and Russia, as well as LNG contracts signed with Australia, Malaysia, Indonesia and Canada, China is poised to be “over-contracted” till 2030, when “legacy” LNG contracts begin to expire. Scenario Analysis China's%Excess%Contracted%Natural%Gas% 50% (in$bcm)$ This report also envisaged several possible 25% scenarios that might have major impact on 0% China’s natural gas balance in the decades 2000% 2005% 2010% 2015% 2020% 2025% 2030% 2035% 2040% to come, namely: 1) Russian Delay, 2) Shale !25% Gas Boom, 3) Demand Boom. !50% !75% In the Russian Delay scenario, we considered !100% the possibility where the construction of !125% Power of Siberia pipeline, which has a !150% maximum discharge of 38 bcm, gets Base%Case% Russian%Delay% Shale%Boom% Demand%Boom% delayed by a decade. In this scenario, gas Scenario Analysis for 2025 price increases from $14/mmbtu to about 18 Price = 16.2 $16.2/mmbtu when compared to the base 15 Price = 14.03 case. 12 MD (Delay) 9 MS (Delay) 6 In the Shale Boom scenario, surge in shale gas MD (Base) 3 MS (Base) production in the decade from 2020 Russian Delay 0 onwards has muted impact on prices in 0 50 100 150 200 250 2025, as it would take another 5 years 18 Price = 14.03 15 before domestic production displaces all the Price = 14.03 12 natural gas supplied by Turkmenistan and MD (Shale) 9 MS (Shale) Russia. 6 MD (Base) 3 MS (Base) Shale GasBoom Finally, in the Demand Boom scenario, which 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 considers the possibility of increased 18 Price = 15.89 adoption of natural gas in residential and 15 Price = 14.03 commercial sectors, we find that price of 12 natural gas will increase from $14/mmbtu 9 MD (Dd Boom) MS (Dd Boom) to $15.9/mmbtu. 6 MD (Base) 3 Demand Boom MS (Base) 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 4 MIEF – Capstone Project Jason Ho, Rui Ma 1. Introduction Following more than a decade’s worth of high commodity prices, barring the exception of the years of the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009, many analysts and academics believe that the “commodity super cycle” is coming to an end due to waning global demand growth and global supply glut for a wide range of commodities1. This research paper centers on the issue of China’s natural gas market, its outlook and its potential impact in the commodity trading space. Although the International Energy Agency (IEA) has claimed that China is entering the “Golden Age” of natural gas2, recent developments have suggested that the business opportunities are not as clear as it was in the past.
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