RER New Stations Initial Business Case LAWRENCE EAST Stouffville Corridor July 2016 Draft Draft: v1.2 Metrolinx Client ref: 150400 RER New Stations Initial Business Case LAWRENCE EAST Draft Prepared by: Prepared for: Urban Strategies Inc. Metrolinx 197 Spadina Avenue, Suite 600 97 Front Street West Toronto, ON Canada M5T 2C8 Toronto, ON M5J 1E6 RER New Stations Initial Business Case June 2016 Note to the reader: The Initial Business Case (IBC) represents a primary input into the evaluation and recommendation of New Stations. Final recommendation of new station site selection considers, in addition to the four cases of the IBC, network fit, and other strategic considerations including priorities of the various levels of government. Network fit addresses system-wide issues and impact on the overall performance of the rail corridor. IBC results do not represent the final recommendations of the GO RER New Stations Evaluation process. IBC results inform the process outlined in the GO RER New Stations Summary and Ranking Report, which is to be posted in the near future. For more information visit: http://www.metrolinx.com/en/regionalplanning/newstations/ The final list of recommended stations is included in the June 28, 2016 GO Regional Express Rail Update report to Metrolinx Board of Directors. 97 Front Street West 97, rue Front Ouest Toronto, Ontario M5J 1E6 Toronto (Ontario) M5J 1E6 RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Lawrence East – draft Executive Summary This Initial Business Case (IBC) examines the potential for a new GO station, Lawrence East, along the GO Stouffville line. The station is conceived as a single island platform accessible from both sides of the rail corridor via pedestrian tunnels. Direct platform access from the Lawrence Avenue East road overpass would also be provided via stairs and elevators. This station would occupy the site of the existing Lawrence East Scarborough RT [SRT] station planned for removal, and would serve an industrial neighbourhood now experiencing some new high-density residential development. Key findings of this IBC for Lawrence East include: Strategic Case: Despite having the potential to replace transit service for residents that would be lost with the removal of the SRT, the station could result in a net ridership loss on the Stouffville line (of approximately 500 daily riders) as some passengers are deterred by increased travel times. While municipal policy targets the station area for growth, employment densities, population densities, and real estate market demand in the immediate area are all predicted to remain low. However, there is an opportunity to work with Toronto and landowners to encourage comprehensive and aggressive transit- oriented development. The station area density is supportive of regional rail service but not express rail service. Financial Case: The construction and operation of the new station at Lawrence East would generate a negative net present value (NPV) of –$78.5 million over a 60-year time horizon. This negative NPV combines capital expenditures and recurring station and train operating costs, estimated at $45.8 million, as well as a loss in fare revenue of $32.7 million resulting from lost ridership. Economic Case: The new station will attract some new riders to the GO network, but these gains may be offset by a loss in upstream riders (deterred by the time required to stop at a new station) and an overall increase in travel time, as well as behavioural changes resulting in increased private automobile use. Lawrence East’s transportation user and environmental impacts amount to a net cost of $325.6 million over the station’s 60-year evaluation period, with capital and operating costs for the new station estimated at an additional $41.8 million. This yields an overall loss of –$367.4 million in Net Present Value. Deliverability and Operations: Station construction would be moderately complex, requiring the removal of existing SRT infrastructure and approximately 900 metres (m) of track realignment. Some private property acquisitions would also be required. Future facility expansion may be possible with additional property acquisition. The station concept would require significant modification if a third (express) track was planned for this section of the rail corridor. The assessment of Lawrence East’s potential concludes that the station performs moderately well in the Deliverability and Operations Case, marginally in the Strategic Case, and poorly in the Financial and Economic Cases. Lawrence East would be complex to construct in the context of SRT infrastructure and may result in a loss of GO ridership, a negative net present value, and broader societal costs arising from increased automobile use. A table summarizing key metrics from each of the four cases follows. A legend is contained in Appendix D. RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Lawrence East – draft Table ES-1: Results of Initial Business Case Analysis for Lawrence East Criterion Summary Policy Alignment Supportive Development Potential and Intensification Neutral Real Estate Market Demand Not Supportive Natural Environment Neutral Operational System Neutral Connectivity and Ridership Drivers Not Supportive Strategic Case Station Access Supportive Social Inclusivity and Accessibility Neutral Incremental GO Ridership (Millions of Trips) –12.8 Fare Revenue (A) –$32.7 Total Costs (B) $45.8 Capital Costs $22.7 Operating Costs (C) $22.6 Net Present Value (A-B) –$78.5 Financial Case Revenue to Cost Ratio (A/B) all-loss Operating Cost Recovery Ratio (A/C) all-loss Travel Time Savings (Millions of Person-Hours) –37.6 Auto Distances Saved (Millions of VKTs) –181.7 Benefits –$325.6 Costs $41.8 Net Present Value –$367.4 Benefit-Cost Ratio all-loss Transportation User Impacts –$325.1 Travel Time Savings –$268.5 Economic Case Vehicle Operating Cost Savings –$39.4 Decongestion on Road Network –$13.0 Safety Impacts –$4.2 Environmental Impacts –$0.5 Constructability Neutral Stakeholder Impacts Supportive Room for Growth Neutral Approvals/Permits Required Supportive Operating Impacts Neutral Deliverability & Operations Case Other Key Risks and Impacts Supportive (Impacts over a 60-year period. Millions of 2015 $ Present Value, unless otherwise noted) RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Lawrence East – draft Table of Contents Executive Summary page 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Background .......................................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Report Scope and Purpose ................................................................................................................. 1 1.3 Site Options and Scenarios Analyzed ................................................................................................. 2 2. Cluster Screening ........................................................................................................................ 5 2.1 Methodology ........................................................................................................................................ 5 3. Station Context and Concept Plan .............................................................................................. 6 3.1 Station Location ................................................................................................................................... 6 3.2 Current Land Uses in Area .................................................................................................................. 6 3.3 Surrounding Transportation Infrastructure........................................................................................... 7 3.4 Concept Plan Rationale ....................................................................................................................... 7 4. Strategic Case ............................................................................................................................ 10 4.1 Strategic Case Summary ................................................................................................................... 10 4.2 Approach ........................................................................................................................................... 10 4.3 Rationale for a New Station ............................................................................................................... 11 4.3.1 Problem Statement ............................................................................................................... 11 4.3.2 Drivers for Change ................................................................................................................ 11 4.3.3 Station Objectives ................................................................................................................. 12 4.3.4 Constraints and Interdependencies ...................................................................................... 12 4.3.5 Stakeholders ......................................................................................................................... 13 4.4 Policy, Land Use and Development .................................................................................................. 14 4.4.1 Policy Alignment ................................................................................................................... 14 4.4.2 Development