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Harbingers of Modernity: Monetary Injections and European Economic Growth, 1492-1790

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Harbingers of Modernity: Monetary Injections and European Economic Growth, 1492-1790 PhD thesis, Nuno Palma, Department of Economic History, LSE The London School of Economics and Political Science Harbingers of Modernity: Monetary Injections and European Economic Growth, 1492-1790 Nuno Pedro G. Palma A thesis submitted to the Department of Economic His- tory of the London School of Economics for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, London, 2015/6 1 PhD thesis, Nuno Palma, Department of Economic History, LSE Declaration I certify that the thesis I have presented for examination for the PhD de- gree of the London School of Economics and Political Science is solely my own work other than where I have clearly indicated that it is the work of others (in which case the extent of any work carried out jointly by me and any other person is clearly identified in it). The copyright of this thesis rests with the author. Quotation from it is permitted, provided that full acknowledgement is made. This thesis may not be reproduced without my prior written consent. I warrant that this authorization does not, to the best of my belief, infringe the rights of any third party. I declare that my thesis consists of 60,938 words. 2 PhD thesis, Nuno Palma, Department of Economic History, LSE Abstract In this dissertation I assess some of the effects for the early modern European economy which resulted from the large-scale discovery and exploitation of precious metals in the New World. I argue that the monetary injections which were a direct result of the increased precious met- als availability were an important cause of stimulus for several early modern European econ- omies. The thesis mainly consists of three papers. In the first paper I argue variation in production of precious metals in America can be helpful to identifying the causal effects of money in a macroeconomic setting. Using a panel of six European countries for the period 1531-1790, I find strong reduced-form evidence in favor of non-neutrality of money for changes in real economic activity. The magnitudes are substan- tial and persist for a long time: an exogenous 10% increase in production of precious metals in America leads to a hump-shaped positive response of real GDP, peaking at an average in- crease of 1.3% four years later. The evidence suggests this is because prices responded to monetary injections only with considerable lags. The following two chapters are focused on different aspects of the measurement and analysis of the causal effects of the monetary injections for the English economy. In the second paper, I put forward new data on annual coin supply for England over the long run. This is offered not only as a data construction exercise within the specific context of England, but also as a methodological contribution which in principle can be reproduced for some other countries. Finally, in the third paper, I present a historical discussion of the long-term effects of the early modern monetary injections in the context of the English economy. I show the increased availability of precious metals led to liquidity injections which matter for our understanding of the English industrious, industrial, and financial revolutions during early modern period. 3 PhD thesis, Nuno Palma, Department of Economic History, LSE Acknowledgements I am grateful to more people than I can individually acknowledge here without writing a whole paper on the matter, which would further risk obscuring those I am most grateful to. In the front page of each chapter I provide additional thanks, always limited to an academic na- ture and depending on the topic in question. Here my acknowledgements are also often of a broader type. Of course, the usual disclaimer applies: all errors are my own. From an early stage, José Luís Cardoso, Luís Costa and João Santos Silva provided encour- agement. That support was to continue and has evolved to a friendship which is now more than a decade old and still going strong. I owe all three a lot. I was also fortunate to be taught as an undergraduate by Leonor F. Costa and Rita Sousa, an influence which may be clear to the more historically-inclined readers of this thesis, and to discuss with Paulo Brito. During my MSc, Kosuke Aoki, Robin Burgess and Chris Pissarides were supportive of my ideas, de- spite their interests being so distinct from my own, and encouraged me to study for a PhD. Later, Matthias Doepke heard me at length as my ideas were maturing, and provided im- portant encouragement. I also thank Larry Christiano, Martin Eichenbaum, Daisuke Ikeda, Deirdre N. McCloskey, Carlos Madeira, Kiminori Matsuyama, Joanathan Parker, and Yannay Spitzer for discussions during my time at Northwestern. At a later time, ICS provided a wonderful and very welcoming work environment, and Rui Esteves, Nick Mayhew, Pedro Lains and Jaime Reis kept me going. I owe to all four special thanks. The late John Munro too, found the time to speak with me and kindly provide the clarifications I was looking for. At Nova SBE, where I spent two years, I frequently discussed and learned much from Luciano Amaral, Pedro Pita Barros, Pedro Barroso, Vasco Botelho, Pedro S. Martins, Pedro Portugal, José Tavares, Pedro Vicente, Duncan Simpson and André Castro Silva. Back in London, I benefited greatly from discussing with Olivier Accominotti, Tim Besley, Steve Broadberry, Roberto Bonfatti, Lars Boerner, Jim Bolton, Bruce Campbell, Jeremiah Dittmar, Ethan Ilzetzki, Alejandra Irigoin, Réka Juhász, Kıvanç Karaman, Debin Ma, Chris Minns, Pilar Nogues-Marco, Patrick K. O’Brien, Jörn-Steffen Pischke, Leandro Prados de la Escosura, Judy Stephenson, Kevin Sheedy, and Patrick Wallis. In turn, Albrecht Ritschl and Joan Rosés were wonderful supervisors. 4 PhD thesis, Nuno Palma, Department of Economic History, LSE It must be said that Joan in particular has gone much beyond what can normally be expected from a PhD supervisor, and I am grateful. With respect to both my supervisors, perhaps the most surprising aspect is that I was given complete freedom to work in the topics that interest me and I still received a very generous measure of support and advice, even when those topics were removed from their own direct research interests. During the last two years I have also benefited from the expertise of Maxine Berg, Bruce Campbell, Jan deVries, Barry Eichen- green, Regina Grafe, António Castro Henriques, João Madeira, François Velde, Cláudia Mo- rais Viana and Jan Luiten van Zanden. I will miss playing music in the the jazz band “The Instrumental Variables”, with Leo Kukic, Gerardo Serra and Peter Sims, as well as the lunches at the Courtauld Institute with Thilo Albers, Yasin Arslantas, Edward Kerby, Maxine Montaigne, Andrea Papadia, Rebecca Sim- son, Franz Zobl, Greta Seibel and others (please forgive me if I am forgetting someone). Finally, but importantly, I must thank my friends Luis Bryce, Liliane Meireles, Sylwia Olak, Paulo Rosário and Chris Wilmer, who provided emotional support at different stages. I also wish to make a special reference to my padrinho, Carlos Moura, who has for so many years been teaching me much of what I know about History and so much else. Above all, however, I must thank my parents. 5 PhD thesis, Nuno Palma, Department of Economic History, LSE Table of contents Chapter 1. Introduction …p.13 Chapter 2. Literature review …p.26 Chapter 3. The existence and persistence of liquidity effects: evidence from a large-scale historical natural experiment …p.56 Chapter 4. Reconstruction of annual coin supply over the long run: the case of England, 1279-1790 …p.113 Chapter 5. Money and modernization: liquidity, specialization, and structural change in early modern England …p.138 Chapter 6. Concluding remarks and an agenda for the future …p.188 6 PhD thesis, Nuno Palma, Department of Economic History, LSE List of tables Chapter 3. The existence and persistence of liquidity effects: evidence from a large-scale historical natural experiment Table 1. Estimates for the components of English nominal money supply …p.60 Table 2. Specie stocks and flows …p.61 Table 3. The nominal GDP equation, 1531-1790 …p.72 Table 4. The price level (GDP deflator) equation, 1531-1790 …p.74 Table 5. The real GDP equation, 1531-1790 …p.75-6 Table 6. Nominal GDP, the price level, and real GDP for the receiving countries …p.83 Table 7. Nominal GDP, the price level, and real GDP instrumented by weather shocks …p. 87 Table 8. Granger “causality” Wald tests following a reduced-form VAR of the first-difference and value of silver output reject that it does not Granger-cause the price of silver in London, but not conversely …p.89 Table 9. Portmanteau and Barlett tests for white noise of the fist-difference of the ln of precious metals production …p.91 Chapter 3 appendix tables Table A1. Nominal GDP, the price level, or real GDP sample split by receiving order …p.111 Table A2. Nominal GDP, the price level, or real GDP sample split by GDP type …p.112 7 PhD thesis, Nuno Palma, Department of Economic History, LSE Chapter 4. Reconstruction of annual coin supply over the long run: the case of England, 1279-1790 Table 1. Benchmarks for the value of English nominal coin supply and inplied ve- locity, 1270-1790 …p.117 Table 2. Descriptive statistics for the different methodologies …p.126 Table 3. Value for the several money aggregates circa 1870, as proposed by several authors …p.128 Chapter 5. Money and modernization: liquidity, specialization, and structural change in early modern England Table 1. American production of precious metals …p.141 Table 2. Specie stocks and flows …p.141 Table 3. Europe’s holdings of precious metals …p.142 Table 4.
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