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Inflation in the Reconstruction of Poland 1918-1927

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Inflation in the Reconstruction of Poland 1918-1927 by Goetz Henning von Thadden submitted to the University of London for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy London School of Economics and Political Science, 30 September 1994 UMI Number: U079533 All rights reserved INFORMATION TO ALL USERS The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. In the unlikely event that the author did not send a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. Dissertation Publishing UMI U079533 Published by ProQuest LLC 2014. Copyright in the Dissertation held by the Author. Microform Edition © ProQuest LLC. All rights reserved. This work is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. ProQuest LLC 789 East Eisenhower Parkway P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 Library British Ubrarv Political and Economic Science Abstract The thesis is concerned with the dynamics of inflation and their effect on production, using the example of the Polish reconstruction process after World War I. In 1918, Poland had to be re-established as a state after 123 years of foreign rule as well as reconstructed due to severe destruction experienced during the war. Nevertheless, the reconstruction process was extremely rapid, and the thesis argues that it was inflation which provided the means to build up the state. Inflation redistributed wealth within the society and imposed a high savings quota on the economy. The printing press inflation carried the economy through to hyperinflation. The positive effects of the process already explain in part why inflation could last so long and why the economy went all the way through to hyperinflation. The thesis then argues that stabilisation was a political problem and was only achieved once the inflationary process ceased to create winners and losers. The positive business climate began to deteriorate when traders no longer used past inflation as an indicator for price setting, but instead used changes in the exchange rate. However, inflation reappeared shortly after fiscal reform, due to the inevitable credit requirements of Polish industry. Inflation had eroded savings and distorted the economy: this was the major short-coming of this peculiar way of mobilising the country's resources. Consequently, a credit inflation emerged still in 1924 as industry tried to adjust to market requirements in the post-inflationary crisis. Stabilisation was only finally achieved when the economy moved out of recession in 1926. Lastly, the thesis sheds new light on the generalisation about the European inflationary experiences of the 1920s. It introduces a distinction between exogenously and endogenously imposed inflation, which suggests a more specific definition of the transition into hyperinflation as well as of the exact requirements for stabilisation. It also reduces these exceptional economic occurrences to reparations, on the one hand, and reconstruction, on the other. 2 Contents List of diagrams and maps 5 List of tables 6 Acknowledgements 7 List of abbreviations 8 I. INTRODUCTION II. INFLATION AND STABILISATION AFTER WORLD WAR I 22 The financial impact of World War I 22 Inflation and prices 26 The shift into hyperinflation 32 The stabilisation of hyperinflation 42 Conclusion 46 III. THE RECONSTRUCTION OF POLAND 48 The foundation 48 Reconstruction and unification 54 The economic potential 64 The economic development 76 Conclusion 85 IV. THE DYNAMICS OF INFLATION AND THEIR IMPACT ON POLISH RECONSTRUCTION 87 The search for the right market 87 The money supply 89 The exchange rate 101 Prices 110 3 The inflation tax 114 Conclusion 117 V. THE ATTEMPTS TO OVERCOME INFLATION 119 The dilemma o f stabilisation 119 Michalski 1921122 123 Jastrzebski 1922 128 Grabski 1923 132 Grabski 1924 137 Conclusion 145 VI. THE REAPPEARANCE OF INFLATION 147 The problem of remonetisation and credit 147 Grabski and the new inflation 151 The collapse of the zloty 158 The end of inflation 165 Conclusion 173 VII. CONCLUSIONS 175 Appendix 184 Bibliography 187 4 Diagrams 1 Polish unemployment. 1919-1927 82 2 Money supply and state debt at the PKKP. 1919-1923 99 3 Polish monthly foreign trade. 1922-1923 103 4 Money supply and the exchange rate. 1918-1923 108 5 External value of the Polish mark. 1920-1923 111 6 Monthly changes of WSP and the exchange rate. 1919-1923 112 7 Money supply, exchange rate and WSP. 1919-1923 113 8 Economic indicators. 1924-1925 155 9 The money supply. 1924-1925 156 10 Polish foreign trade. 1924-1925 158 11 Economic indicators. 1925-1927 168 12 Polish foreign trade. 1925-1927 169 Maps 1 Six concurrent wars on the borders of Poland. 1918-1922 53 5 Tables 1 Reduction in lifestock 55 2 Reduction of inventory stock 56 3 Polish occupational structure. 1921 and 1931 66 4 Illiteracy in Poland. 1918 66 5 Pre-war productivity of Polish agriculture according to region 67 6 Land and ownership according to region. 1921 68 7 Output-index for selected branches. 1919 72 8 Development of Polish railways. 1919-1923 78 9 Polish industrial production. 1913 and 1919-1927 83 10 Polish agricultural production. 1909/13 and 1921-1927 84 11 Productivity of Polish agriculture. 1909/13 and 1921-1927 84 12 The Polish land reform. 1919-1927 85 13 Expenditure and revenues in pre-war Poland 91 14 Expenditure and revenues in Poland. 1913, 1919-1923 93 15 State loans and treasury bonds. 1919-1923 93 16 The debts of the Polish Republic. 1919-1923 94 17 Real value of the money stock. 1920-1924 97 18 Polish foreign trade. 1920-1923 102 19 Polish foreign trade for selected goods. 1920-1923 104 20 Disagio of the Polish against the German mark. 1919-1920 106 21 Index of real prices and wages. 1921-1923 115 22 Polish governments. 1918-1923 122 6 Acknowledgements This thesis was written with the financial support of the Studienstiftung des deutschen Volkes and the Alfred Zauberman Award from the London School of Economics. This support is gratefully acknowledged. I want to thank particularly the Studienstiftung for supporting me in all areas of my study. They took a keen interest in my work, providing constructive criticisms as well as financial assistance. I would also like to thank the staff of the Archivum Akt Nowych in Warsaw, the Public Records Office in Kew, as well as Henry Gillet and his assistants at the Bank of England Archive and Dr Ruser at the League of Nations Archive. I am especially greatful to the staff of the University of Warsaw library for their encouragement and help. I also extend my gratitude to Professor Alan Milward who supervised this project from its vaguely defined initial stages to its final completion with patience and insight. Without his constant questioning, this thesis would have taken a different, and certainly worse, course. I am also grateful to those who read parts of my work on its way to completion and who offered useful comments, especially Drs Giovanni Federico, Peter Howlett, Paul Johnson, Mary Morgan and Max Schulze. My fellow PhD-students Alejandra Irigoin, Peter Lloyd-Sherlock and Miquel Gutierrez i Poch deserve special mention for their constant encouragement, willingness to discuss what were still vague ideas and their friendship. I also want to thank the Department of Economic History at the London School of Economics which provided an ideal environment for my studies. My greatest debt is to my family who gave me the inspiration and the opportunity to stay in academia for so many years. This thesis is dedicated to them. 7 ABBREVIATIONS AAN Archivum Akt Nowych, Warszawa, Poland. LN League of Nations Archive, Geneve, Switzerland MP Mark Polski = Polish mark PKKP Polska Krajowa Kasa Pozyczkowa = Polish State Loan Bank PRM Protokoly pos. Rady Ministrow = Minutes of the meeting of the council of ministers PRO Public Record Office, Kew, UK x. Sejm Short-hand Minutes of the x. Meeting of the Sejm 8 I INTRODUCTION When the Polish Republic was founded in November 1918, Europe saw a country re- emerging that had disappeared from the map for 123 years. There had been several Polish attempts before to regain statehood, but none of them had been successful. It was only the changing political atmosphere at the beginning of the twentieth century that brought the Polish question back to the political agenda. During World War I, Germany and Austria created a Kingdom of Poland in 1916, when they needed Polish recruits, and, shortly af­ terwards, the Russian revolution addressed the Polish people in a reminder of self-deter­ mination. Yet only when, at the endxrf 1918, Germany and Austria lost the war and their monarchs abdicated, while, at the same time, Russia was paralysed by revolution, was the historical chance given that the Polish people could take their future into their own hands. The foundation of the Polish Republic was one of the consequences of the outcome of World War I. The peculiar way of the Polish foundation was due to the fact that the Poles made use of the temporary weaknesses of their partitioning powers to emancipate them­ selves, supported, of course, by the favourable attitude of the victorious powers. The other side of the medal was, however, that what they took over was barely more than bits and pieces of three different empires. What these parts had in common was the Polish language, a feeling of cultural unity and the tradition of the once Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. When the period of partition ended, there seemed, at first sight, to be more division or, at least, diversity than unity. Also, the worst was not yet over, but was only about to begin.
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