Resource Efficiency Gains and Green Growth Perspectives in Poland
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Study Resource Efficiency Gains and Green Growth Perspectives in Poland Szymon Szewrański September 2012 n Poland’s energy sector is mainly based on fossil sources; the power sector depends almost entirely on coal. Only 9 per cent of Poland’s energy production is based on renewable energies. Despite its wealth in natural resources, energy efficiency is cru- cial for a balanced and sustainable development in Poland. n Energy intensity in Poland is almost twice as high as the EU average; greenhouse gas emissions are also high (8 per cent of total EU greenhouse gas emissions). Over 75 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions are caused by the combustion of fossil fuels (mainly coal and oil). Therefore, the main potential for emissions reduction lies in the energy sector. n Some legal, financial and organizational mechanisms have already or are currently being implemented in order to encourage the reduction of emissions. However, po- litical measures to support eco-innovation remain only on a medium level. n The potential for green jobs in Poland is significant. In most regions there are strong academic centres capable of conducting educational projects for the sake of green growth. The environmental awareness among the young generation increases. The main constraints for green growth are administrative barriers, the absence of a clear political strategy to modernise the energy sector, and mechanisms for using environ- mental charges for new investments. SZYMON SZEWRAńSKI | ResOURCE EFFICIENCY GAINS AND GreeN GROWTH PerspeCTIVes IN POLAND Content 1. Economic Policy in Poland ................................................2 2. State of the Environment in Poland ........................................4 2.1 Natural Resources .....................................................4 2.2 Water Resources ......................................................4 2.3 Mineral Resources .....................................................5 2.4 Use of Resources ..................................................... 7 3. Atmospheric Pollution ...................................................9 3.1 Emissions of Greenhouse Gases ...........................................9 3.2 Energy Production ....................................................10 4. Potential for Reducing Emissions .........................................11 4.1 Energy Saving and Emissions Reduction ...................................12 4.2 Economic Innovation ..................................................14 4.3 Green Jobs .........................................................16 5. Environmental Awareness and Society’s Expectations .......................17 6. Prospects for Growth ..................................................18 1 SZYMON SZEWRAńSKI | ResOURCE EFFICIENCY GAINS AND GreeN GROWTH PerspeCTIVes IN POLAND The aim of this chapter is to present current knowledge According to Finance Minister Jacek Rostowski, imple- on the economic, political and social conditions for sus- mentation of the reforms would be a »breakthrough tainable development, with particular reference to the without shock therapy«: in other words, a »long-march state of the environment and Poland’s natural resources. strategy«. According to PO’s leaders, the party’s politi- It also presents a number of critical remarks and reflec- cal programme has always been designed for at least tions on the possibilities for implementing the concept two parliamentary terms of office. It is meant to be an of green growth in Poland. effective alternative to the »myth of a great reform leap forward«. Rostowski assumes that Poland needs a calm and gradual, though steadfast, reform effort in the style 1. Economic Policy in Poland of Margaret Thatcher, which may last decades.3 Soon after the announcement of the parliamentary elec- Tusk’s first term of office coincided with the greatest tion results in 2011, Donald Tusk promised the voters economic crisis since the Second World War. The politi- that »the next four years will be better, faster … we cal declarations of PO leaders, according to whom this must work twice as fast and twice as hard because Poles would be a time of calm and gradual structural reforms, deserve a higher quality of life and a higher quality of were quickly invalidated by social and economic reality. It politics«.1 In the October elections, his victorious Plat- now became more important to neutralise the effects of forma Obywatelska (PO) (Civic Platform) party obtained the world crisis in order to maintain economic growth, 39.18 per cent of the votes. Donald Tusk – starting as halt rising debt and reduce the excessive budget deficit. »number one« in Warsaw – achieved the best result in During its previous term of office, the government had Poland, with 375,000 votes. He is the first freely-elected carried out a few structural changes, such as raising the prime minister in Polish history to serve two successive effective retirement age by five years for people previ- terms of office. The new government’s economic pro- ously eligible for earlier retirement; adopting a spend- gramme was published in November last year, soon af- ing rule; and reforming teaching and higher education. ter the prime minister’s parliamentary address.2 It envis- According to government reports, Poland’s strategy of ages a series of reforms of the pension and tax systems. reducing the negative impact of the crisis in 2008–2011 Their purpose is to promote rapid development and to was the most effective in Europe. Poland recorded the improve competitiveness in relation to other European fastest economic growth in the entire EU. GDP during countries. The current government’s economic policy is this period rose by 15.5 per cent in contrast to the EU based on the principles of solidarity and social justice. average, which fell by 0.5 per cent. In 2009, Poland’s Figure 1: GDP growth in Poland and the EU27, 1996–2010 (previous year =100; fixed prices) Source: Eurostat, »Poland 2011. Economy-Society-Regions«. 1. PAP (Polish Press Agency) report, 17 November 2011. 2. Chancellery of the Prime Minister, Program gospodarczy nowego rządu – dokument (the new government’s economic programme – docu- 3. Jacek Rostowski, Do przyjaciół ekonomistów (To my friends the econo- ment), 18 November 2011. mists), Rzeczpospolita 2 February 2012. 2 SZYMON SZEWRAńSKI | ResOURCE EFFICIENCY GAINS AND GreeN GROWTH PerspeCTIVes IN POLAND GDP rose by 1.6 per cent, the highest increase in the EU.4 The new government’s economic programme calls for In OECD Economic Surveys: Poland 2012, experts show the elimination of the excessive budget deficit, with a that during the economic crisis, Poland has displayed reduction to 1 per cent of GDP by the end of its term of the fastest growth in GDP of all OECD member states. office (the plan is to reduce the public finance deficit to Assessing GDP in per capita terms, the report says that 2.97 per cent of GDP in 2012). The ratio of public debt »since 2005, Poland has been catching up with the EU15 to GDP is also to be reduced steadily. According to the countries twice as fast as at the start of this decade. government’s »Strategy for managing the public debt in However, one notes that despite the strong economic 2012–2015«, in 2012 the public debt will amount to PLN growth in the period 2010–2011, unemployment has 832.5 billion (52.4 per cent of GDP), in 2013 PLN 846.9 gradually risen to almost 10 per cent«.5 Economic policy billion (50.3 per cent of GDP), in 2014 PLN 864.8 billion hitherto has exploited the development opportunities (48.3 per cent of GDP) and in 2015 PLN 902.2 billion offered by access to EU funds. According to its leader, (47.4 per cent of GDP). The government will continue to the second PO term of office is to be a period of pro- reform the pension system and social security system for found structural reforms. The first half of 2012 will be farmers. From 2013, the retirement age for women and crucial to the success of the entire reform plan. men will be gradually equalised and also raised to 67. The gradual introduction of a new retirement age is sup- posed to encourage an energetic state policy in support Figure 2: GDP growth in Poland of the employment of older persons. The government compared to other OECD countries economic programme also calls for pension reforms in the uniformed services and fairer pensions for miners. Unjustified tax concessions and loopholes are to be elim- inated. Tax concessions are to be used to improve sup- port for child rearing and to encourage families to have more children. The tax concession for internet connec- tions will be abolished. The justification for this is that telecommunications services are becoming cheaper and the state is supporting the creation of a modern infor- mation network. According to the European Statistical Office, the fiscal burden of Poles in 2010 was almost 8 per cent of GDP below the EU average. The government regards low taxation as a permanent aspiration. A tax increase would be justifiable only by a need to ensure stable public finances in the short term. The government has adopted a straightforward macroeconomic policy: to permanently reduce public spending in the medium term (this does not apply to research and development and public investments), so that when the deficit in the public finance sector has fallen below 1 per cent, taxes can gradually be reduced (provisionally, as of 2015). An important element of government economic policy is new mechanisms of taxing revenues from agricultural production. From 2013, farms