E-mobility in Poland as a business opportunity authors Krzysztof Bolesta Electric Vehicles Promotion Foundation [email protected] Marcin Korolec President of the Electric Vehicles Promotion Foundation [email protected] Agata Staniewska Consultant editor Rachel van Horn design Anna Olczak The report was commissioned by the Netherlands Embassy in Warsaw and the Netherlands Enterprise Agency. All rights reserved. Electric Vehicles Promotion Foundation is a Warsaw-based think tank established to accelerate the up-take of e-mobility in Poland. We run the Innovative Transport Forum, the biggest dialog platform for stakeholders interested in advancing the idea of e-mobility. We provide analytical services on demand. Warsaw, May 2018 E-mobility in Poland as a business opportunity Executive summary 9 The e-mobility market is growing fast. Sales Poland has grand ambitions for e-mobili- of new electric cars worldwide surpassed ty and legislation in place to enable their 1 million units in 2017, an increase of 54 per realization. But Poland lacks sufficient in- cent compared with 2016. The global stock centives for e-mobility uptake, which, as of electric cars surpassed 3 million units in research and experience has shown, is the 2017 after crossing the 2-million mark only prerequisite of rapid market growth. The in 2016. The spread of electric vehicles is Polish market has great economic poten- supported by climate action policy, rising tial due to its size and the importance of concerns over air quality in ever more con- the automotive sector for the country's gested cities, and also energy security. After economy. Furthermore, the electrification all, in today’s volatile energy market, the of transport could vastly improve Poland’s most secure oil supplies are those that can environment and energy security, mitiga- be avoided altogether. ting air pollution and oil import dependen- cy. Still, the uptake of EVs so far has been Europe is a pioneer of this technological shi- slow, and the investment in infrastructure ft. The European market is going strong with lags behind the government's plans. The a few countries clearly in the lead including Polish EV development programme, laun- Norway, Iceland, Sweden, the UK, France ched only in recent years, is already run- and the Netherlands. ning behind schedule. 11 On the other hand, there are a number or Zielona Góra where business opportu- of e-mobility sectors performing well. nities are the greatest. From e-mobility Some players are enjoying healthy growth to autonomous vehicles, local leaders will and are keen to expand and look for new continue to set new standards and test new opportunities in this innovative business solutions. They are open to new solutions environment. The most promising sectors and new ideas. These are the business include the electric bus manufacturing va- partners to look for. lue chain, the development of charging in- frastructure, battery production and inno- This report describes why e-mobility is vative storage solutions. such an important topic in Poland, how the regulations are set up and how the The leaders of change in the Polish market market is developing. Our analysis also de- are far from obvious. They include some scribes the key stakeholders. We hope that start-up companies and small and me- getting familiar with the Polish e-mobility dium-sized Polish municipalities. It is these market will be the first step in recognising stakeholders who push the boundaries of some interesting and advantageous busi- what is possible. It is cities like Jaworzno ness opportunities. 15 E-mobility in Poland – a political and an economic priority 19 Strategy papers and regulatory framework 39 E-mobility as an element of industrial policy 47 Funding sources for e-mobility 55 E-mobility on the ground 73 Short-term e-mobility forecast for Poland 83 Key Polish e-mobility stakeholders 107 Bibliography Table of contents 01 E-mobility in Poland – a political and an economic priority 16 e-mobility in poland as a business opportunity E-mobility in Poland – a political and an economic priority 17 E-mobility is the first industrial revolution The official in charge of the electric bus project is Jadwiga Emilewicz, Minister of Entrepreneurship and Technology. in which Poland could participate as a She is also responsible for the fight against smog and for the promotion of sustainable transport in cities. She is leader and not as a technology buyer. a keen supporter of innovative technologies, which aligns It could be a pass for Polish companies well with her portfolio. to become important global players, in Michał Kurtyka, state secretary at the Ministry of Energy is in charge of the electric car project. Before joining the go- particular in electric bus manufacturing. vernment, he wrote the book New Electricity and New Cars – The Future of the European Energy Doctrine2, in which he Mateusz Morawiecki ‣ Polish Prime Minister states that “the electric car is bound to become a pivotal element of emerging electricity revolution.”He is the right person in the right place. The growing importance of the Responsible Development Strategy, as evidenced by the Prime Minister’s support and its strong management team guarantees that e-mobility will remain one of the main priorities of the Polish gover- After Poland’s national elections in 2015, then-Development nment. The potential for change and growth is significant Minister and current Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki but the starting point is unquestionably difficult. unveiled his Responsible Development Strategy1. The docu- ment is a complex plan for the Polish economy specifying a number of strategic goals to be achieved by the govern- ment by 2020 and 2030. One of the flagship programmes included in the strategy is e-mobility. This programme is divided into two indepen- dent components: one that targets the development and production of electric buses and one that focuses on desi- gning and manufacturing a Polish electric car. 1 https://www.miir.gov.pl/strony/strategia-na-rzecz-odpowiedzialnego-rozwoju/ 2 M.Kurtyka, L.Jesień, New Electricity and New Cars – The future of the European informacje-o-strategii/ energy doctrine, CeDeWu, Warsaw 2016. 02 Strategy papers and regulatory framework 20 e-mobility in poland as a business opportunity Strategy papers and regulatory framework 21 In 2016 the government tabled the “Package chart 01. Government forecast for EVs registation growth in Poland for clean transport” – a set of documents which is to determine the direction Year Total nb of EVs New registrations of e-mobility development in Poland. 2015 1007 0 2016 2397 1390 The documents include the E-mobility 2017 5704 3307 2018 13576 7871 Development Plan, the national framework 2019 32310 18734 2020 76898 44587 for the alternative fuel development policy, 2021 183017 106119 a new dedicated piece of legislation 2022 366034 183016 2023 549051 183016 on e-mobility and the amendment of the law 2024 823576 274525 2025 1029470 205894 on biocomponents and liquid bio-fuels that Source: The national framework for the alternative fuel development policy should safeguard the financing of e-mobility for the future. One of the most ambitious assumptions of the E-mobility Plan is to have one million EVs on Polish roads by 2025. Authors of the strategy recognise that to achieve this goal, charging infrastructure will need to be properly developed Plan for development in Poland. A more robust network of charging stations will of e-mobility neutralise the “range anxiety” experienced by car drivers who may worry that their battery capacity is insufficient The aim of the “E-mobility Development Plan in Poland” for their journey. The E-mobility Plan also concedes that (E-mobility Plan) is to promote electric vehicles among some incentives will be needed to boost sales of electric Polish consumers and to create the opportunities for Polish cars which will remain more expensive than their die- firms to participate in this new market. This strategic do- sel or petrol-powered competition for another few years. cument was designed to map out the implementation of A number of regulations will need to be revised, as they Morawiecki’s Plan on e-mobility. chart 01. are not well prepared for the rolling out of e-mobility. 22 e-mobility in poland as a business opportunity Strategy papers and regulatory framework 23 According to the document, the increase according to the This additional revenue could be used to finance innova- in the number of electric cars will have international energy tion in the electricity sector and for investments in the low a noticeable impact on the electricity and medium voltage grids necessary to integrate EV char- sector. The Ministry of Energy estima- agency, rd&i and ging stations. Electric vehicles will become another me- tes that the targeted one million vehic- mass production ans to optimise the grid. Batteries for electric cars will be les could generate an annual demand of prospects are charged mainly at night neutralising the so called “night approximately 2.3-4.3 TWh of electricity, % valley” phenomenon. Today, inconsistent demand for elec- leading to rapid 55 which is on the one hand a challenge of Polish vehicles tricity at night is difficult to manage as some of the power for the national grid, but on the other – battery cost are over 16 years old plants simply need to run all the time to maintain the grid. an opportunity for firms in the sector. declines and The Ministry estimates that the revenu- To improve the management of the electricity system, es for energy companies from the sale of increases in energy 80 per cent of consumers are to be equipped with smart electricity for EVs could reach as much density.