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CLIMATE RESEARCH AND SERVICES METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES PUNE

Observed Rainfall Variability and Changes over and

Met Monograph No.: ESSO/IMD/HS/Rainfall Variability/11(2020)/35

Pulak Guhathakurta, Usha Krishnan, Elizabeth Saji, Preetha Menon Ashwini Kumar Prasad, Neha Sangwan and S C Advani

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

Met Monograph No.: ESSO/IMD/HS/Rainfall Variability/11(2020)/35

Observed Rainfall Variability and Changes Over Jammu & Kashmir

Pulak Guhathakurta, Usha Krishnan, Elizabeth Saji, Preetha Menon, Ashwini Kumar Prasad, Neha Sangwan and S C Advani

INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT PUNE - 411005

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DOCUMENT AND DATA CONTROL SHEET

1 Document Title Observed Rainfall Variability and Changes Over Jammu & Kashmir 2 Issue No. ESSO/IMD/HS/Rainfall Variability/11(2020)/35 3 Issue Date January 2020 4 Security Unclassified Classification 5 Control Status Uncontrolled 6 Document Type Scientific Publication 7 No. of Pages 27 8 No. of Figures 42 9 No. of References 3 10 Distribution Unrestricted 11 Language English 12 Authors Pulak Guhathakurta, Usha Krishnan, Elizabeth Saji, Preetha Menon, Ashwini Kumar Prasad, Neha Sangwan and S C Advani 13 Originating Climate Research Division/ Climate Application & Division/ Group User Interface Group/ Hydrometeorology 14 Reviewing and Director General of Meteorology, India Meteorological Approving Department, New Authority 15 End users Central and State Ministries of Water resources, agriculture and civic bodies, Science and Technology, Disaster Management Agencies, Planning Commission of India 16 Abstract India is in the tropical monsoon zone and receives plenty of rainfall as most of the annual rainfall during the monsoon season every year. However, the rainfall is having high temporal and spatial variability and due to the impact of climate changes there are significant changes in the mean rainfall pattern and their variability as well as in the intensity and frequencies of extreme rainfall events. The report brings the result of the analysis based on the recent 30 years of data (1989-2018) on the mean spatial rainfall pattern as well as mean spatial pattern of different rainfall events, trends and variability as well as extreme rainfall events during the monsoon months and annual for the state. 17 Key Words Rainfall trend, variability, extreme events, dry days

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1. Introduction

Jammu and Kashmir lies in the . It is India’s northernmost state, covering an area of 42,241 sq. km. It lies between Latitude 32°17’N and 37°05’N and longitude 72°31’E and 80°20’E. The state is bounded on the north by Afghanistan and , on the east by Ladakh UT and China, on the south by and Punjab states in India and on the west by . It has a large variation in its own topography. It has hilly terrain with high mountains and a number of valleys in all regions except extreme southwestern part where lying plain area of low elevation. Topographically the whole region is almost mountainous with four main ranges of ; , , Ladakh and Pir Panjal. Karakoram and Kyunlun ranges lie to the north and northeast of the state and separate it from Russian, Turkistan and Tibet. Karakoram range where K2 peak height 8611 metres above mean sea level, the second highest peak of the world is situated. Two lofty peaks of Gashorbram (8570 m) and Masharbram (7827 m) also lie in this range. There are many mountain peaks in Karakoram range which are having height above 5000 m. Zanskar range separates the Indus valley from . It is part of the Tethys Himalaya and is approximately 100 km wide. The peak height of Zanskar range is about 6,000 m. Ladakh range lies to the north of Leh and it is an important part of the Trans-Himalayan range that merges with the Kailash range in Tibet. In the Ladakh UT the peak height is about 7672 m and there are many peaks above 5000 m. The lies to the south of the main Himalayas which has peak height about 4100 m and it follows from in the northwest to southern rim of the Kashmir valley and pass. Mountains have a geographical importance to climatic conditions of the state. Presently, Jammu & Kashmir has area about 42,241 sq. km vide geographically two distinct regions - Jammu, Kashmir valley. While Ladakh has area about 59,146 sq. km and both reconstitute into union territories from 31 October 2019. The Jammu region comprises of plains, foothills and forested mountains. The plains of Jammu are an extension of the great north Indian plains rising from Punjab and extending towards the Shivalik ranges. The Shivalik hill is a mountain range of the outer Himalaya which merges into Pir Panjal range. The Pir Panjal range separates the Jammu region from Kashmir valley. Kashmir valley is situated between Pir Panjal range and Zanskar range and is covered by forested mountains, lakes, waterways and terraced fields. The valley region is generally bounded on all sides by mountains. Average height of the valley is 1615 m but the surrounding mountains with snow- clad rise from 3000 to 4900 m. The surface of the valley is mostly plain and abounds with springs and lakes.

Many studies available on the observed trends and variability of rainfall and also extreme rainfall events over India, but all the studies are based on past 100 years or more data and also the recent

3 years are not included (Guhathakurta et al, 2015; Guhathakurta et al, 2011; Guhathakurta & Rajeevan, 2008 etc). Also, there are limited studies on district rainfall trends and variability of Jammu and Kashmir. In the present report all the analysis of observed rainfall patterns, trends and variability have been done based on recent past 30 years (1989-2018) that will help to have idea of the recent changes for climate change adaptation and management by the state authorities.

2. Data and Methodology

Daily Rainfall data from 1989 to 2018 is considered for analysis of trend variability and mean rainfall patterns. From the daily rainfall data monthly rainfall series of each stations are computed and then monthly district rainfall series has been constructed by considering arithmetic average of all the station rainfall values within the district. The monthly rainfall series of the state has been computed by using area weighted rainfall values of all the districts within the state. Fig.1 gives the location of the districts of the state. The objective of the analysis is to:

1. Identify the spatial pattern of the mean rainfall

2. Understand district wise observed rainfall trend and variability in annual and SW monsoon season (June, July, august and September).

Daily station rainfall data is utilized for identification of the mean spatial patterns and rainfall intensity trends. From mean and standard deviation (SD), the coefficient of variation (CV) is calculated as follows:

Standard Deviation Coeffcient of variation (CV) = × 100 Mean

Fig. 1 Location of the districts of Jammu and Kashmir

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3. State rainfall mean and variabilityand trend Table 1 shows the mean rainfall (mm) and coefficient of variation of the state for the monsoon months, southwest monsoon season and annual during the period 1989-2018. It can be seen that the state gets highest rainfall (33%) of south west monsoon rainfall in July month while the August month get 32% of the south west monsoon rainfall. June and September receive 15% and 18% of south west monsoon rainfall. Almost 44% of annual rainfall is received during the southwest monsoon season only. The variability of monsoon and annual rainfall is 24% and 21% respectively.

June July August September JJAS Annual Mean 84.1 184.8 178.5 101.2 554.5 1256.1

C V 42.6 45.7 47.1 79.9 24.0 21.0

Table 1 Mean rainfall (mm) and coefficient of variation of the state for the monsoon months, southwest monsoon season and annual

Fig. 2 and 3 show the time series of rainfall in mm for the months of June, July, August, September and southwest monsoon season, annual respectively. The trend lines are also displayed for each of the series. Neither monthly rainfall nor seasonal or annual rainfall show any significant increasing/decreasing trend. In the monthly rainfall June and September rainfall show increasing trend while Julyshows a decreasing trend and August rainfall shows a slightly decreasing trend. Both seasonal and annual rainfall show decreasing trend. During the last 30 years highest rainfall of June and August received in the year 1996 (187.4mm and 426.5 mm respectively) while highest rainfall of 373.6.0 in July received in the year 1995 and of 392.4mm in September received in the year 2014. Highest annual rainfall of 1621.4 mm received in the year 2005 and highest southwest monsoon rainfall of 846.5 mm received in the year 1994.

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Fig. 2 Time series of rainfall in mm for the months of June, July, August, September and trends

Fig. 3 Time series of rainfall in mm for the southwest monsoon season and annual trends

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4. District rainfall mean, variability and trend 4.1 Mean and coefficient of variation Table 2 gives the rainfall statistics for the districts of Jammu and Kashmir for the four monsoon months, southwest monsoon season and annual while Fig.4 – 5 show the spatial pattern of these statistics. It can be seen that the districts and receive highest rainfall over other districts during all the months and season. Rainfall received over these districts are around 100-170 mm in June, around 400mm-580mm in July andAugust,160-240mm in September and during the SW monsoon and annual 1200-2100mm. Lowest rainfall received during the SW monsoon season over (257.9mm) and Badgam (197.5mm) districts respectively while both these districts also receive lowest annual rainfall (1007.4mm and 715.7mm respectively).

JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER MONSOON ANNUAL DISTRICT MEAN CV MEAN CV MEAN CV MEAN CV MEAN CV MEAN CV 77.4 56.3 90.1 54.2 96.0 55.6 77.7 87.4 341.2 35.7 1054.3 40.7 99.8 51.2 125.2 123.5 93.5 71.5 69.2 92.1 387.7 46.5 1399.0 52.2 DODA 84.0 53.5 133.8 53.8 131.2 66.2 86.1 87.8 435.1 50.7 1218.0 50.5 JAMMU 101.2 79.5 401.8 44.2 394.5 56.3 138.7 80.2 1036.1 31.1 1388.9 42.0 KATHUA 117.1 54.3 515.2 49.9 454.4 59.9 169.6 63.3 1256.2 45.9 1739.5 55.4 LADAKH 3.0 145.8 14.4 248.2 6.6 111.2 12.6 263.0 36.5 180.2 69.0 110.7 105.5 80.1 251.0 67.7 194.6 68.7 120.9 83.9 672.0 58.7 1258.3 47.2 REASI 167.3 92.6 489.5 55.7 578.2 49.1 240.8 48.2 1475.7 48.9 2095.6 47.6 104.6 70.9 397.5 46.8 418.4 51.0 151.1 83.4 1071.6 34.9 1591.6 38.9 BADGAM 48.2 82.9 57.1 76.2 40.5 77.5 51.7 127.1 197.5 64.1 715.7 58.0 56.1 65.8 83.2 84.2 69.1 65.6 42.9 95.3 251.4 52.2 1035.3 53.4 48.2 85.3 50.8 79.7 73.9 57.1 42.6 158.9 215.5 57.1 641.1 57.1 46.1 64.6 65.1 67.2 73.0 60.2 35.5 112.3 219.7 44.3 730.4 44.5 KARGIL 3.2 97.5 8.0 141.3 1.3 95.6 1.5 110.4 13.9 88.4 56.1 40.3 RAMBAN 85.0 61.1 133.1 69.8 123.4 78.6 95.3 113.9 436.8 42.7 1463.2 44.3 SAMBA 92.9 87.1 263.2 54.8 310.6 62.0 166.0 69.3 832.7 50.0 1070.6 53.6 79.0 60.1 109.8 59.9 88.3 75.3 19.0 55.6 296.2 42.7 923.2 31.6 70.0 59.5 169.7 72.7 52.7 81.8 16.0 60.1 308.3 54.0 1034.0 40.8 79.1 68.5 104.2 88.2 97.2 76.4 83.6 142.4 364.2 56.2 1206.8 48.1 GANDERBAL 65.8 62.5 64.3 51.0 77.1 64.3 50.8 92.4 257.9 55.3 1007.4 54.3 80.9 69.0 208.0 54.8 224.6 75.4 142.2 98.8 655.7 58.2 1110.4 53.0

Table 2. Rainfall statistics for the districts of Jammu and Kashmir for the four monsoon months, southwest monsoon season and annual

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Fig.4 Mean rainfall pattern over districts of Jammu and Kashmir

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Fig.5Coefficient of Variation (%) over districts of Jammu and Kashmir

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4.2 Trend in district rainfall

Fig.6 shows the trends in district rainfall for (a) June, (b) July (c) August (d) September (e ) JJAS and (f) annual. It can be seen that June rainfall has shown significant increasing trend in the districts Reasi, Shopian, Rajouri and Bandipore while no district has shown any significant decreasing trend. For the July month significant increasing trend has been noticed in Bandipore and Ganderwal districts and significant decreasing trend has been noticed in Poonch, Shopian, Rajouri, Samba and Kathua districts. Bandipora and Riasi districts have shown significant increasing trend in August rainfall and Ganderwal, Rajouri and Samba districts have shown decreasing trend.For the month of September increasing trend is shown in Riasi and Shopian districtsand Badgam and Ganderwal districts have shown decreasing trend. During the whole southwest monsoon season Bandipora and Riasi districts have shown significant increasing trend and Ganderwal, Badgam, Rajouri, Shopian and Samba districts have shown decreasing trend. For the annual rainfall Baramula, Ganderwal, Poonch and Kathua districts show significant decreasing trend, while significant increasing trend is not seen in any district.

a b

c d

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e f Fig.6 Trends in district rainfall for (a) June, (b) July (c) August (d) September (e) JJAS and (f) annual

5. Analysis of Average frequencies for rainfall events of different intensities

5.1 Average frequency of Rainy days

The average frequency of rainy days is calculated for Jammu and Kashmir for June, July, August, September, June to September and Annual. Figure 7 shows that in the month of June the maximum number of rainy days lies in the range of 6 to 7 days especially in some parts of Baramula, Anantnag, Jammu, Riasi, Kathua, Doda and Udhampur districts. While minimum number of rainy days lies in the range of 5 days especially in some parts of Kupwara, Ganderwal, Shrinagar, Badgam, Shopian, Kulgam and Anantnag districts. Whereas in remaining districts the number of rainy days lies in the range of 5 to 6 days.

Figure 8 shows that in the month of July the maximum number of rainy days lies in the range of 12 to 13 days especially in some parts of Kathua, Samba, Jammu, Udhampur and Riasi districts. While minimum number of rainy days lies in the range of 6 to 8 days especially in some parts of Kupwara, Baramulla, Shrinagar, , Shopian, Kulgam and Anantnag districts. Whereas in remaining districts, the number of rainy days lies in the range of 7 to 12 days.

Figure 9 shows that in the month of August the maximum number of rainy days lies in the range of 11 to 13 days especially in some parts of Kathua, Samba, Jammu and Udhampur districts. While minimum number of rainy days lies in the range of 6 to 8 days especially in some parts of Kupwara, Baramulla, Budgam, Shrinagar, Shopian, Kulgam, Rambanand districts. Whereas in remaining districts, the number of rainy days lies in the range of 7 to 11 days.

Figure 10 shows that in the month of September the maximum number of rainy days lies in the

11 range of 6 to 7 days especially in some parts of Anantnag,Kathua, Jammu and Riasi districts. While minimum number of rainy days lies in the range of 4 to 5 days especially in some parts of Kupwara, Shrinagar, Baramulla, Budgam, Shopian, Kulgam, Ramban and Anantnag districts. Whereas in remaining districts, the number of rainy days lies in the range of 4 to 6 days.

Figure 11 shows that during June to September the maximum number of rainy days lies in the range of 31 to 35 days especially in some parts of Kathua, Jammu, Samba, Riasi and Udhampur districts. While minimum number of rainy days lies in the range of 21 to 24 days especially in some parts of Kupwara, Baramulla, Shrinagar, Budgam, Shopian, Kulgam, Ramban and Anantnag districts. Whereas in remaining districts, the number of rainy days lies in the range of 24 to 32 days.

Figure 12 shows that during the entire year the maximum number of rainy days lies in the range of 60 to 65 days especially in some parts of Kupwara, Baramulla, Anantnag, Ramban, Kulgam, Udhampur, Doda, Jammu and Riasi districts. While minimum number of rainy days lies in the range of 41 to 46 days especially in some parts of , Poonch, Rajouri and Jammu districts. Whereas in remaining districts, the number of rainy days lies in the range of 46 to 60 days.

Fig. 7 Average frequency of rainy days: June Fig. 8 Average frequency of rainy days: July

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Fig. 9 Average frequency of rainy days: August Fig. 10 Average frequency of rainy days: September

Fig. 11 Average frequency of rainy days: JJAS Fig. 12 Average frequency of rainy days: Annual

5.2 Average frequency of Heavy rainfall days

The average frequency of Heavy rainfall days is calculated for Jammu and Kashmir for June, July, August, September, June to September and Annual. Figure 13 shows that in the month of June the maximum number of heavy rainfall days lies in the range of 0 to 1 day especially in some parts of Jammu and Riasi districts. While minimum number of Heavy rainfall days is nearly 0 especially in some parts of Kupwara, Baramulla, Srinagar, Budgam, Shopian, Kulgam, Anantnag and Doda districts. Whereas in remaining districts, the number of Heavy rainfall days is nearly 0.

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Figure 14 shows that in the month of July the maximum number of heavy rainfall days lies in the range of 1 to 2 days especially in some parts of Kathua, Samba, Jammu and Riasi districts. While minimum number of Heavy rainfall days is nearly 0 especially in some parts of Kupwara, Baramulla, Srinagar, Budgam, Shopian, Kulgam, Ramban, Anantnag and Doda districts. Whereas in remaining districts, the number of Heavy rainfall days lies in the range of 0 to 1 day.

Figure 15 shows that in the month of August the maximum number of heavy rainfall days lies in the range of 1 to 2 days especially in some parts of Kathua, Samba, Jammu, Udhampur and Riasi districts. While minimum number of Heavy rainfall days is nearly 0 especially in some parts of Kupwara, Bandipora, Ganderwal, Barmulla, Srinagar, Shopian, Kulgam, Anantnag and Dodadistricts. Whereas in remaining districts, the number of Heavy rainfall days lie s in the range of 0 to 1 day.

Figure 16 shows that during September the maximum number of heavy rainfall days lies in the range of 0 to 1 day especially in some parts of Kishtwar, Doda, Udhampur, Kathua, Samba, Jammu, Riasi and Ramban districts. While minimum number of Heavy rainfall days are nearly 0 especially in some parts of Kupwara, Baramulla, Budgam, Srinagar, Shopian and Anantnag districts. Whereas in remaining districts, the number of Heavy rainfall days are nearly 0.

Figure 17 shows that during June to September the maximum number of heavy rainfall days lies in the range of 2 to 3 days especially in some parts of Kathua, Samba, Jammu and Riasi districts. While minimum number of Heavy rainfall days lies in the range of 0 to 1 day especially in some parts of Kulgam, Anantnag, Srinagar, Budgam, Shopian, Kupwara and Baramulla districts. Whereas in remaining districts, the number of Heavy rainfall days lies in the range of 1 to 2 days.

Figure 18 shows that during the entire year the maximum number of heavy rainfall days lies in the range of 3 to 4 days especially in some parts of Kathua, Jammu, Riasi, Ramban, Udhampur and Samba districts. While minimum number of Heavy rainfall days lies in the range of 1 to 2 days especially in some parts of Kupwara, Baramulla, Bandipora, Ganderwal, Srinagar, Budgam,Shopian, Kulgam and Anantnag districts. Whereas in remaining districts, the number of Heavy rainfall days lies in the range of 1 to 3 days.

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Fig. 13 Average frequency of heavy rainfall days: Fig. 14 Average frequency of heavy rainfall days: June July

Fig. 15 Average frequency of heavy rainfall days: Fig. 16 Average frequency of heavy rainfall days: August September

Fig. 17 Average frequency of heavy rainfall days: Fig. 18 Average frequency of heavy rainfall days: JJAS Annual

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5.3 Average frequency of Dry days

The average frequency of dry days is calculated for Jammu and Kashmir for June, July, August, September, June to September and Annual. Figure 19 shows that in the month of June the maximum number of dry days lies in the range of 24 to 25 days especially in some parts of Kathua, Samba and Jammu districts. While minimum number of dry days lies in the range of 20 to 21 days especially in some parts of Kupwara, Baramulla, Ganderwal, Anantnag, Kulgam, Ramban, Doda and Udhampur districts. Whereas in remaining districts, the number of dry days lies in the range of 21 to 24 days.

Figure 20 shows that in the month of July the maximum number of dry days lies in the range of 20 to 21 days especially in some parts of Kupwara, Srinagar, Baramulla, Budgam, Shopian, Kulgam, Anantnag, Kathua and Jammu districts. While minimum number of dry days lies in the range of 17 to 18 days especially in some parts of Anantnag, Baramulla, Doda, Udhampur, Riasi, Jammu and Kathua districts. Whereas in remaining districts, the number of dry days lies in the range of 18 to 20 days.

Figure 21 shows that in the month of August the maximum number of dry days lies in the range of 20 to 21 days especially in some parts of Kupwara, Srinagar, Budgam, Shopian, Anantnag, Kulgam, Kathua, Samba and Jammu districts. While minimum number of dry days lies in the range of 17 to 19 days especially in some parts of Baramulla, Anantnag, Doda, Udhampur, Riasi and Jammu districts. Whereas in remaining districts, the number of dry days lies in the range of 18 to 20 days.

Figure 22 shows that in the month of September the maximum number of dry days lies in the range of 24 to 26 days especially in some parts of Kathua, Samba and Jammu districts. While minimum number of dry days lies in the range of 21 to 22 days especially in some parts of Baramulla, Anantnag, Ganderwal, Bandipora, Doda and Riasi districts. Whereas in remaining districts, the number of dry days lies in the range of 22 to 24 days.

Figure 23 shows that during June to September the maximum number of dry days lies in the range of 80 to 83 days especially in some parts of Kathua, Samba, Jammu, Budgam and Srinagar districts. While minimum number of dry days lies in the range of 73 to 75 days especially in some parts of Baramulla, Anantnag, Riasi, Udhampur, Ramban, Doda and Kathua districts. Whereas in remaining districts, the number of dry days lies in the range of 75 to 81 days.

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Figure 24 shows that in the month of during the entire year the maximum number of dry days lies in the range of 287 to 298 days especially in some parts of Jammu, Samba and Kathua districts. While minimum number of dry days lies in the range of 245 to 256 days especially in some parts of Kupwara, Baramulla, Srinagar, Budgam, Anantnag, Shopian, Kulgam, Doda and Ramban districts. Whereas in remaining districts, the number of dry days lies in the range of 255 to 287 days.

Fig. 19 Average frequency of dry days: June Fig. 20 Average frequency of dry days: July

Fig. 21 Average frequency of dry days: August Fig. 22 Average frequency of dry days: September

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Fig. 23 Average frequency of dry days: JJAS Fig. 24 Average frequency of dry days: Annual

6 Trends in the frequencies of different rainfall events

6.1 Trend in frequency of Rainy days

The Trend in frequency of rainy days is calculated for the rain gauge stations of Jammu and Kashmir for June, July, August, September, June to September and Annual. Figure 25 shows that in the month of June there is a significant increase in Rainy days in the district Ramban. Whereas there is no significant decrease in Rainy days in any district. While remaining districts also did not show any significant change.

Figure 26 shows that in the month of July there is a significant increase in Rainy days in while there is no significant decrease in Rainy days in any district districts. The remaining districts also did not show any significant change.

Figure 27 shows that in the month of August there is no significant increase or decrease inRainy daysin any district.

Figure 28 shows that in the month of September too there is no significant increase or decrease in Rainy days in any district.

Figure 29 shows that in the months of June to September there is a significant increase in Rainy daysin Kupwara, Kulgam and Kathua districts. Whereas there is no significant decrease in Rainy days.

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Figure 30 shows that during the entire year there is a significant increase in Rainy days in Kupwara, Kulgam, Udhampur and Kathua districts. Whereas there is no significant decrease in Rainy days in any district.

Fig. 25 Trend in frequency of rainy days: June Fig. 26 Trend in frequency of rainy days: July

Fig. 27 Trend in frequency of rainy days: Fig. 28 Trend in frequency of rainy days: August September

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Fig. 29 Trend in frequency of rainy days: JJAS Fig. 30 Trend in frequency of rainy days: Annual

6.2 Trend in frequency of Heavy rainfall days The Trend in frequency of Heavy days is calculated for Jammu and Kashmir for June, July, August, September, June to September and Annual. Figure 31 shows that in the month of June there is a significant increase in Heavy rainfall days in Doda and Jammu districts. Whereas there is no significant decrease in any district in the month of June.

However,there is no significant increase or decrease in Heavy rainfall days in any district during the month of July, August, September, during June to September or in annual scale (Figure 32-36).

Fig.31 Trend in frequency of heavy rainfall days: Fig. 32 Trend in frequency of heavy rainfall days: June July

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Fig. 33 Trend in frequency of heavy rainfall days: Fig. 34 Trend in frequency of heavy rainfall days: August September

Fig. 35 Trend in frequency of heavy rainfall days: Fig. 36 Trend in frequency of heavy rainfall days: JJAS Annual

6.3 Trend in frequency of Dry days

The Trend in frequency of dry days is calculated for Jammu and Kashmir for June, July, August, September, June to September and Annual. Figure 37 shows that in the month of June there is no significant increase in dry days in any district. Whereas there is a significant decrease in dry days in Baramulla, Srinagar, Anantnag and Ramban districts. While remaining districts did not show any significant change.

Figure 38 shows that in the month of July there is a significant increase in dry days in only . Whereas there is no significant decrease in dry days in any other district. The remaining districts too did not show any significant change.

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Figure 39 shows that in the month of August there is neither a significant increase norsignificant decrease in dry days in any district.

Figure 40 shows that in the month of September there is a significant increase in only Jammu districtand no significant decrease in dry days in any district. The remaining districts too did not show any significant change.

Figure 41 shows that during June to September there is a significant increase in dry days in Kupwara, Kulgam, Udhampur and Kathua districts and a significant decrease in dry days in Srinagar and Anantnag districts.

Figure 42 shows that during the entire year there is a significant increase in dry days in Kupwara, Baramulla, Kulgam, Udhampur and Kathua districts. Whereas there is no significant decrease in dry days in any other district. The remaining districts too did not show any significant change.

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Fig. 37 Trend in frequency of dry days: June Fig. 38 Trend in frequency of dry days: July

Fig. 39 Trend in frequency of dry days: August Fig. 40 Trend in frequency of dry days: September

Fig. 41 Trend in frequency of dry days: JJAS Fig. 42 Trend in frequency of dry days: Annual

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7. Conclusions

In the present study we have investigated the rainfall pattern and its variability and also changes based on recent 30 years data. In the analysis we have considered monsoon months, the monsoon season and annual scale. The spatial scale has been considered from state to district for study of rainfall total and stations are being considered for seeing intensities of rainfall. The analysis brought many significant features of rainfall pattern and can be used for water agricultural managements. Some of the important results can be summarized as:

Jammu and Kashmir gets maximum rainfall in July (33% of SW monsoon rainfall) followed by August (32 % of SW monsoon rainfall). 44% of annual rainfall is received during southwest monsoon rainfall (June –September).

Reasi and Kathua districts of receive 70-72% of annual rainfall in SW monsoon season while Ganderbal and Badgam districts receive only 26- 28% of annual rainfall in SW monsoon season.

No significant increasing/decreasing trends in June, July, August, September monthly rainfall.

Maximum rainfall receivedduring the SW monsoon season is over the districts Reasi (1500mm) and Kathua (1300mm) and lowest rainfall is received over Ganderbal (260mm) and Badgam district receives lowest rainfall of 198mm.

Maximum rainfall received during the year over the districts Reasi(2096mm)and Kathua(1740mm) districts while Badgam district receives lowest annual rainfall of 716mm.

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Significant increasing trend in SW monsoon rainfall has been noticed in Bandipora and Riasi districts while Ganderwal, Badgam, Rajouri, Shopian and Samba districts show significant decreasing trend.

In annual rainfall no district shows significant increasing trend while Baramula, Ganderwal, Poonch and Kathua districts show significant decreasing trend.

During the southwest monsoon the maximum number of rainy days lies in the range of 31 to 35 days especially in some parts of Kathua, Jammu, Samba, Riasi and Udhampur districtswhile minimum number of rainy days lies in the range of 21 to 24 days especially in some parts of Kupwara, Baramulla, Shrinagar, Budgam, Shopian, Kulgam, Ramban and Anantnag districts.

For heavy to extremely heavy rainfall ( daily rainfall >=6.5mm) the maximum number of heavy rainfall days lies in the range of 2 to 3 days especially in some parts of Kathua, Samba, Jammu and Riasi districts. While minimum number of Heavy rainfall days lies in the range of 0 to 1 day especially in some parts of Kulgam, Anantnag, Srinagar, Budgam, Shopian, Kupwara and Baramulla districts.

Number of dry days is maximum over central and southern parts of the state (80-83 dry days out of 122 days)during the SW monsoon season while on an average 287-298 dry days in 365 days have been noticed in southern districts of Jammu and Kashmir .

During the period June to September there is a significant increase in the frequency of Rainy days in Kupwara, Kulgam and Kathua districts. Whereas there is no significant decrease in Rainy days in any district.

During the entire year there is a significant increase in Rainy days in

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Kupwara, Kulgam and Kathua districts whereas there is no significant decrease in Rainy days in any district.

During the period June to September there is no significant increase or decrease in Heavy rainfall days in any district.

During the entire year there is no significant increase or decrease in Heavy rainfall days in any district.

During June to September there is a significant increase in dry days in Kupwara, Kulgam, Udhampur and Kathua districtsdistricts and a significant decrease in Srinagar and Anantnag districts.

During the entire year there is a significant increase in dry days in Kupwara, Baramulla, Kulgam, Udhampur and Kathua districts. Whereas there is no significant decrease in dry days in any other district.

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Acknowledgement:

The authors acknowledge Secretary, MOES, DGM, India Meteorological Department and Head, Climate Research and Services for guidance, suggestions and encouragement to carry out the works. Acknowledge also to Hydrology section and National Data Centre of India Meteorological Department Pune for making availability of the data.

References:

1. Guhathakurta P, Rajeevan M, Sikka D R and Tyagi A, 2015 “Observed changes in southwest monsoon rainfall over India during 1901–2011”, Int. J. Climatol, 35, 1881-1898. 2. Guhathakurta P, Sreejith O P and Menon P A, 2011 “Impact of climate changes on extreme rainfall events and flood risk in India”, J. Earth System Science. 120, No. 3, 359-373. 3. Guhathakurta P and Rajeevan M, 2008 “Trends in rainfall pattern over India” International J. of Climatology, 28: 1453–1469.

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The report brings out observed rainfall variability and trends over the state as an impact of climate change based on recent 30 years of data ( 1981 - 2018 )

Rainfall pattern of monsoon months, south west monsoon season and annual of the state and it’s districts as well as extreme rainfall event of different intensity of stations are analysed.

Observed Rainfall Variability and Changes over Andhra Pradesh State

PREPARED AND DESIGNED AT HYDROMETEOROLOGY SECTION CLIMATE APPLICATION AND USER INTERFACE GROUP CLIMATE RESEARCH AND SERVICES, PUNE