OBSERVATOIRE NATIONAL SUR Dekadal Bulletin from 21st to 30th December, 2019 LES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES Bulletin no 30 NATIONAL OBSERVATORY ON CLIMATE CHANGE

DIRECTION GENERALE - DIRECTORATE GENERAL ONACC ONACC-NOCC www.onacc.cm; email: [email protected]; Tel (237) 693 370 504 CLIMATE ALERTS AND PROBABLE IMPACTS FOR THE PERIOD 21st to 30th DECEMBER, 2019

NB: It should be noted that this forecast is Supervision developed using spatial data from: Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director, National Observatory on Climate Change - the International Institute for Climate and (ONACC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, . Society (IRI) of Columbia University, USA; Ing. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (ONACC). - the National Oceanic and Atmospheric ProductionTeam (ONACC) Administration (NOAA), USA; Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director, ONACC and Lecturer in the - AccuWeather (American Institution Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. specialized in meteorological forecasts), USA; Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, ONACC. - the African Centre for Applied Meteorology BATHA Romain Armand Soleil, Technical staff, ONACC. for Development (ACMAD). ZOUH TEM Isabella, MSc in GIS-Environment. NDJELA MBEIH Gaston Evarice, M.Sc. in Economics and Environmental Management. - Spatial data for Atlantic Ocean Surface MEYONG René Ramsès, M.Sc. in Climatology/Biogeography. Temperature (OST) as well as the intensity of ANYE Victorine Ambo, Administrative staff, ONACC the El-Niño episodes in the Pacific. ELONG Julien Aymar, M.Sc. Business and Environmental law. - ONACC’s research works.

I. INTRODUCTION

This ten-day alert bulletin n°30 reveals the climatic conditions and climate forecasts developed for the five Agro-ecological zones for the period December 21 to 30, 2019. It also highlights the potential risks and impacts, observable in certain socio-economic sectors in the five agro-ecological zones of Cameroon. This period is characterized by the gradual installation of the Harmattan in the Far North and North Regions and the displacement of the Inter-Tropical Front (ITF) towards the southern part of the country.

II. CLIMATIC HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE PERIOD 21st to 30th DECEMBER, 2019

II.1. For Temperatures We expect: - an overall increase from 0.1°C to 0.4°C in the average maximum temperatures compared to the historical average recorded for the same period from 1950 to 2015 and an overall increase from 0.1 to 0.3°C compared to that registered during the previous dekad from December 11 to 20, 2019. However, particular attention will have to be paid to the following localities; - Yagoua in the Far ; - Tchollire in the North region; - , , , Mbandjock, , Yaounde, Alonolinga, and Eseka in the ; - Betare Oya, Belabo, Bertoua, Batouri, Abon-Mbang and Mindourou in the East region; - Sangmelima in the South region; - Loum, Mbanga and Manjo in the Littoral region; - , , , , Bangangte and Tonga in the ; - Muyuka and Kumba in the South West region.

N.B: We note a high risk of observing heat waves characterised by temperatures above 30°C for several successive days over the national territory.

- an overall decrease from 0.4 to 0.8°C in average minimum temperatures compared to the historical average recorded for the same period from 1950 to 2015, and a decrease from 0.1 to 0.6°C compared to the average recorded during the dekad from December 11 to 20, 2019 in the following localities; - Yagoua in the Far North region; - Lagdo in the North region; - Meiganga in the ; - Yaounde and in the Centre region; - Fundong, Bali and Bamenda in the North West region; - Bertoua, Belabo, Yokadouma, Abong Mbang, Batouri, Betare Oya and Mindourou, in the East region; - Lolodorf and Sangmelima in the South region; - Bafang, Foumban, and Dschang, in the West region; - Mamfe, Mundemba, Fontem and Kumba in the South West region. - Melong, Penja, Mbanga, Dizangue and Edea in the Littoral region; - an increase in daily thermal differences in the localities of Yagoua in the Far North region; Meiganga, Banyo and Ngaoundere in the Adamawa region; Sangmelima in the South region Yaounde and Akonolinga in the Centre region; Bertoua, Belabo, Yokadouma, Abong Mbang, Batouri, Betare Oya and Mindourou, in the East region; Bamenda, Fundong and Bali in the North West region; , Dschang and Foumban in the West region; Mbanga in the Littoral region. II.2. For Precipitations Sporadic and localized rainfall of low intensity could be observed in the localities of - Obala, Eseka, Ngambe Tikar, Monatele, Yoko, Bafia, Nkoteng, Mbandjock, , Yaounde, Akonolinga and Nanga Eboko in the Centre region; - Mbitom, Betare Oya, Garoua Boulai, Belabo, Batouri, Bertoua and Lomie in the East region; Periodic and localized rainfall followed by strong winds and hail could be observed in the localities of - Tiko, Bamusso, Idenau, Mundemba, Fontem; Kumba, Mutengene, Buea and Limbe in the South West region; - Edea, Mouanko and Dizangue, Melong, Mbanga, Douala and Yabassi in the Littoral region.

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III. Climate forecasts for the five agro-ecological zones for the period from 21st to 30th December, 2019

1) For precipitations We expect: a) In the Sudano-sahelian zone - No sign of rainfall in the North and Far North regions; b) In the Guinean high savannah zone - No sign of rainfall in the Adamawa region. c) In the bimodal rainfall forest zone - Sporadic, localized and low intensity rains in the localities of Obala, Eseka Ngambe Tikar, Monatele, Yoko, Bafia, Nanga Eboko, Nkoteng, Mbandjock, Ngoro, Yaoundé et Akonolinga in the Centre region; Mbitom, Betare Oya, Garoua Boulai, Belabo, Batouri, Bertoua, Lomie in the East region; Kribi and Nyabizan in the South region. d) In the high plateau zone - Sporadic, localized and low intensity rains in the localities of Bamendjing, Foumban, Makoupa, Nkoumangba, Foumbot; Bafoussam, , Bafang, Bagangte, Tonga, Dschang and in the West region; Widikum, Ebang, Menka, Batibo, Guzang, Figure 1: Distribution of rainfall for the current dekad compared to that of the previous dekad from December 11 to 20, 2019 Munkep, Esu, Bamenda, Wum, Kumbo, Santa, Bali, Source : ONACC, December 2019 Bambalang, Benakuma and Fundong in the North West region. st th e) In the monomodal rainfall forest zone NB: This dekad from 21 to 30 December 2019 corresponds - LimbeSporadic, localized and low intensity rains in the to the extension of the dry season in the Sudano-Sahelian zone localities of Tiko, Bamusso, Mundemba, Fontem, (Far North and North regions), in the Guinea high savannah zone (Adamawa region), the high plateau zone (West and Kumba, Ekok, Eyumodjock, Ekang, Bamusso, Idenau, North West regions), Monomodal rainfall forest zone (Littoral Mutengene, Buea, Mamfe and Limbe in the South West and South West regions). In the bimodal rainfall forest zone region. (Centre, South and East regions); this period corresponds to - Periodic, localized rainfall accompanied by strong an extension of the long dry season. winds and hail in the localities of Edea, Mouanko, Dizangue, Melong, Nkongsamba, Manjo, Loum, Penja, Ndokoti, Mbanga, Douala and Yabassi in the Littoral region.

NB : During this period, it is expected that morning and night fog will increase in some localities on the outskirts of large cities and on the hillsides of the Centre, South, East, Littoral and regions with high altitudes (West, North West and South West regions).

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2) For Temperatures

a) For Maximum Temperatures

Based on the difference between the historical average maximum temperatures registered for the same period from 1950 to 2015 and the average maximum temperatures forecast for the dekad from December 21 to 30, 2019 there is a high probability of recording an increase in the average maximum temperatures in: - Yagoua in the Extreme North region; - Garoua and Tchollire in the North region; - Banyo and Tibati in the Adamawa region; - Mindourou, Bertoua, Batouri, Belabo, Abong Mbang and Yokadouma and Betare Oya in the East region; - Sangmelima in the South region; - Bafang, Bangangte, Dschang, Foumban, Foumbot and Tonga in the West region; - Kumba Fontem, Mundemba and Muyuka in the South West region; - Akonolinga, Bafia, Eseka, Nanga Eboko, Mbandjock, Nkoteng and Figure 2: Variations in average maximum temperatures from the historical average for the same Obala, Yaounde and Mbalmayo in the Centre region. period from 1950-2015 and compared to the dekad from 11thto 20th December 2019. Source: ONACC, December 2019 N.B: We note a high risk of observing heat waves characterised by temperatures above 30°C for several successive days over the national territory, and particularly in the sudano sahelian zone (in the Far North, and North regions) as well as in the Centre and East regions. Based on the difference between the average maximum temperatures recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th December, 2019 and the average maximum temperatures forecast for the dekad from 21st to 30th December 2019, there is a high probability of recording an increase in the average maximum temperatures in: - Maroua, Yagoua, Mindif, Mokolo, and Mora in the Far North region; - Guider, Rey Bouba and Tchollire in the North region; - Abong Mbang, Bertoua, Batouri, Betare Oya, Mindourou, Belabo and Yokadouma in the East region; - Kribi and Sangmelima in the South region; - Manjo, Mbanga, Nkongsamba, Loum, and Melong in the Littoral region; - Bali and Bamenda, Fundong and Santa in the North West region;

- Bamusso, Buea, Fontem, Idenau, Limbe, Mamfe, Mutengene, Muyuka, Figure 3: Variations in average minimum temperatures forecast for current dekad compared and Kumba in the South West region; to the dekad from 11th to 20th December 2019. Source: ONACC, December 2019 ONACC| 3

Alerts for maximum temperatures

Figure 4 shows that during this dekad from 21st to 30th December 2019, particular attention should be paid to localities that have a very high probability of experiencing an increase in average maximum temperatures. These include: - Yagoua in the Far North region; - Tchollire in the North region; - Betare Oya, Belabo, Bertoua, Batouri, Abong-Mbang and Mindourou in the East region; - Bafia, Nanga Eboko, Nkoteng, Mbandjock, Obala, Yaounde, Akonolinga, Mbalmayo and Eseka in the Centre region; - Loum, Mbanga and Manjo in the Littoral region; - Sangmelima in the South region; - Dschang, Foumban, Foumbot, Bafang, Bangangte and Tonga in the West region; - Muyuka, Fontem and Kumba in the South West region;

Figure 4: Alert zones for maximum temperatures for the period from 21st to 30th December, 2019 Source: ONACC, December 2019 ONACC| 4 b) For Minimum Temperatures

Based on the difference between the historical average minimum temperatures registered for the same period from 1950 to 2015 and the average minimum temperatures forecast for the dekad from December 21st to 30th, 2019, there is a high probability of a decrease in the average minimum temperatures in: - Kaele, Yagoua and Bogo Maroua and Mokolo in the Extreme North region;

- Pitoa, Guider and Rey-Bouba in the North region; - Banyo, Meiganga and Ngaoundere in the Adamawa region; - Garoua Boulai and Betare Oya, Abong Mbang, Batouri, Bertoua and Mindourou, Belabo and Yokadouma, in the East region; - Lolodorf and Sangmelima in the South region; - Yaounde and Akonolinga in the Centre region;

- Fundong, Bali and Bamenda, Kumbo in the North West region; - Mundemba, Kumba and Fontem in the South West region; - Bafang and Foumban, Bafoussam, Dschang, Bazou and Mbouda in the West region; - Melong, Penja, Mbanga and Edea in the Littoral region. Based on the difference between the average minimum temperatures recorded in st th the dekad from 1 to 10 December, 2019 and the average minimum Figure 5: Variations in average minimum temperatures from historical averages from st th temperatures expected for the dekad from 21 to 30 December, 2019, there is a 1950 to 2015 for the same period. Source: ONACC, December 2019 high probability of a decrease in the average minimum temperatures in: - Mora and Yagoua in the Extreme North region; - Lagdo in the North region; - Meiganga in the Adamawa region; - Yaounde, Akonolinga, Bafia, Eseka, Mbalmayo, Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko, Nkoteng and Obala in the Centre region; - Betare Oya, Bertoua, Abong-Mbang, Batouri, Belabo, Yokadouma and Mindourou in the East region; - Ebolowa, Kribi, Lolodorf and Sangmelima in the South region; - Bafang, Foumban, Dschang, Bangangte and Foumbot in the West region; - Bali, Bamenda and Fundong in the North West region; - Mamfe, Bamusso, Buea, Idenau, Limbe, Mutengene, Fontem, Kumba and Mutengene in the South West region; - Dizangue, Edea, Mbanga, Melong, Penja, Douala, Loum and Manjo in the Littoral region.

NB: There is a high risk of an increase in cold nights in the localities of Bogo, Kaele, Yagoua and Mokolo in the Far North region; Guider, Lagdo, Rey Bouba, Pitoa and Tchollire, in the North region; Bertoua, Belabo, Yokadouma, Abong Mbang and Mindourou in the East region; Foumban, Bafoussam and Mbouda in the West region; Bali, Munkep, Esu, Bamenda, Fundong, Kumbo, Wum and Nkambe in the North West region. Figure 6: Variations in average minimum temperatures for the current dekad compared to the dekad from 11th to 20th December, 2019. Source: ONACC, December 2019 ONACC| 5

Alerts for minimum temperatures

Figure 7 shows that during this dekad from 21st to 30th December 2019, particular attention should be paid to localities that are very likely to experience a decrease in average minimum temperatures. These localities include; -Yagoua in the Far North region; -Lagdo in the North region; -Meiganga in the Adamawa region; -Yaounde and Akonolinga in the Centre region; -Fundong, Bamenda, Bali in the North West region; -Bertoua, Belabo, Betare Oya, Mindourou, Batouri, Abong Mbang and Yokadouma in the East region; Lolodorf and Sangmelima in the South region; -Bafang, Foumban and Dschang in the West region; -Mamfe, Mundemba, Fontem and Kumba in the South West region; -Melong, Penja, Mbanga, Dizangue and Edea in the Littoral region.

Figure 7: Alert zones for minimum temperatures for the period from 21st to 30th December, 2019. Source : ONACC, December 2019

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IV. Risks and alerts on socio-economic sectors

a) In the agricultural sector: e) In the environment and biodiversity sector: - high risk of decrease in water resources, useful for the irrigation of A risk of the occurrence of thick fog, especially in the early market gardening crops due to the installation of the dry season in the five morning for some localities and in the afternoon for others, in Agro-ecological zones; localities located on the outskirts of large cities and on the hillsides - Insect pest attacks on cereals in the Extreme North, North and the of cities such as Yaounde, Ebolowa and Bertoua in the bimodal northern part of the Adamawa regions; rainfall forest zone; Bamenda, Santa, Menka, Batibo, Guzang, - weed proliferation, particularly Striga (in the millet and sorghum fields) Munkep, Esu, Kumbo, Bali, Fundong and Wum in the highlands in the Far North and North Region. zone; Fontem, Mamfe, Buea, Limbe, Kumba, Tiko, Idenau and b) In the health sector: Mutenguene, Loum, Manjo, Mbanga, Penja, Souza, Edea and A risk of recording cases of: Nkongsamba,in the Mono-modal rainfall forest zone, with a high - Diarrhea, following the scarcity and poor quality of drinking water in the risk of traffic accidents; five Agro-ecological zones; - A risk of recording many cases of: - meningococcal meningitis following the severe drought that is affecting - poaching in areas close to protected areas due to their some localities in the five Agro-ecological zones; migration out of reserves in search of water and food in the Far - Conjunctivitis due to the effects of a combination of heat and dusty winds in North, North, Adamawa, Centre, South and East regions; various localities in the five Agro-ecological zones;

- Bush fires in various localities in the Far North, North, - Respiratory diseases (flu, cough, bronchitis, colds, asthma, etc.) in the Far Adamawa, Centre, South, North West, West, South West North, North, Adamawa, North West, and West regions, due to an increasing and East regions. presence of dust in the air and the cold nights during this period; - conflicts between farmers and certain wildlife species in the - General pathology with systematic disorders in children, people living Far North, North, North and the Adamawa regions; suffering from diabetes, obesity or any pathology requiring medication acting on thermoregulation in the five Agro-ecological zones; - degradation of biological diversity as a result of severe - Syncope and psychological stress in schools, following the torrid heat, drought in the five agro-ecological zones. especially among asthmatic subjects in the five Agro-ecological zones. f) In the livestock sector: c) In the tourism sector: - numerous cases of epizootic diseases due to the cold weather in some localities in the Far North, North and Adamawa, West, East, - high risk of recording many cases of animal migration, due to water

shortages in tourist sites in the Far North, North, Adamawa, Centre, South and North West and South west regions;

East regions. - migration of transhumant herders in search of water points and d) In the water and energy sector: grazing land in the Far North, North and Adamawa, North West, - A risk drying up of water supply points as a result of the decrease in the West, East and Centre regions; water level of the groundwater table in the Far North, North and Adamawa - increase in conflicts between herders and farmers over water

regions. points, plains and lowlands in the Far North, North and Adamawa,

- a risk of a decrease in the volume of water in dams, and water North West, West and Centre, West, South and South West catchment and treatment sites. regions.

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V. Some recommendations

a) In the agricultural sector - make nurseries for market gardening and caral fields (for off-season millet) under shade; - transplant off-season crops; - make nurseries under the hedges; - set up drip irrigation systems to irrigate plantations and nurseries in need of water in the five Agro-ecological zones; - promote drought-resistant crops and off-season crops in the Far North, North and northern parts of the Adamawa regions; - promote the practice of integrated pest management to control pests of cereals and other crops. b) In the health sector It is recommended that we: - raise public awareness to strictly respect basic hygiene and sanitation rules (wash food items, filter drinking water before consumption in households, use latrines, avoid the accumulation of household waste in the vicinity of dwellings, etc.); - sensitize populations in the Far North, North and northern parts of the Adamawa regions to drinks a lot of water and moderate their consumption of alcohol within this period - consume lots of fresh vegetables and meals rich in proteins in the Far North and northern parts of the Adamawa regions; - promote meningitis vaccination campaigns - dress warmly and put on sleeping gear for protection from the cold nights during this period; - ensure appropriate drainage of any standing water; - stay under shelters or in the house (especially between noon and 3 p.m. when it is extremely hot); - take a cold bath before bedtime; - encourage the population to sleep under mosquito nets. c) In the livestock sector - organise livestock vaccination campaigns to prevent epizootic diseases; - raise awareness to promote fodder cultivation for livestock feed and distribution of fodder crops in preparation for the dry season. d) In the water and energy sector - sensitize the administrations concerned to take into account the climate forecasts developed by ONACC in the planning of water resource management in dams. (e) In the sector of the environment and biodiversity - raise awareness among populations of the risks of conflicts with wildlife species in search of food and water; - raise awareness of the risks of bushfires and their impacts on climate change as a prelude to the upcoming dry season.

For more information, contact: P.O. Box 35414 House no 1220, Street no 1793, Bastos, Yaounde, Cameroon Tel. (237)693 370 504 /(237)222 209 500 E-mail: [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected] Website: www.onacc.cm ONACC| 8