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II. CLIMATIC HIGHLIGHTS for the PERIOD 21St to 30Th DECEMBER, 2019

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II. CLIMATIC HIGHLIGHTS for the PERIOD 21St to 30Th DECEMBER, 2019 OBSERVATOIRE NATIONAL SUR Dekadal Bulletin from 21st to 30th December, 2019 LES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES Bulletin no 30 NATIONAL OBSERVATORY ON CLIMATE CHANGE DIRECTION GENERALE - DIRECTORATE GENERAL ONACC ONACC-NOCC www.onacc.cm; email: [email protected]; Tel (237) 693 370 504 CLIMATE ALERTS AND PROBABLE IMPACTS FOR THE PERIOD 21st to 30th DECEMBER, 2019 NB: It should be noted that this forecast is Supervision developed using spatial data from: Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director, National Observatory on Climate Change - the International Institute for Climate and (ONACC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Society (IRI) of Columbia University, USA; Ing. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (ONACC). - the National Oceanic and Atmospheric ProductionTeam (ONACC) Administration (NOAA), USA; Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director, ONACC and Lecturer in the - AccuWeather (American Institution Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. specialized in meteorological forecasts), USA; Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, ONACC. - the African Centre for Applied Meteorology BATHA Romain Armand Soleil, Technical staff, ONACC. for Development (ACMAD). ZOUH TEM Isabella, MSc in GIS-Environment. - Spatial data for Atlantic Ocean Surface NDJELA MBEIH Gaston Evarice, M.Sc. in Economics and Environmental Management. Temperature (OST) as well as the intensity of MEYONG René Ramsès, M.Sc. in Climatology/Biogeography. ANYE Victorine Ambo, Administrative staff, ONACC the El-Niño episodes in the Pacific. ELONG Julien Aymar, M.Sc. Business and Environmental law. - ONACC’s research works. I. INTRODUCTION This ten-day alert bulletin n°30 reveals the climatic conditions and climate forecasts developed for the five Agro-ecological zones for the period December 21 to 30, 2019. It also highlights the potential risks and impacts, observable in certain socio-economic sectors in the five agro-ecological zones of Cameroon. This period is characterized by the gradual installation of the Harmattan in the Far North and North Regions and the displacement of the Inter-Tropical Front (ITF) towards the southern part of the country. II. CLIMATIC HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE PERIOD 21st to 30th DECEMBER, 2019 II.1. For Temperatures We expect: - an overall increase from 0.1°C to 0.4°C in the average maximum temperatures compared to the historical average recorded for the same period from 1950 to 2015 and an overall increase from 0.1 to 0.3°C compared to that registered during the previous dekad from December 11 to 20, 2019. However, particular attention will have to be paid to the following localities; - Yagoua in the Far North region; - Tchollire in the North region; - Bafia, Nanga Eboko, Nkoteng, Mbandjock, Obala, Yaounde, Alonolinga, Mbalmayo and Eseka in the Centre region; - Betare Oya, Belabo, Bertoua, Batouri, Abon-Mbang and Mindourou in the East region; - Sangmelima in the South region; - Loum, Mbanga and Manjo in the Littoral region; - Dschang, Foumban, Foumbot, Bafang, Bangangte and Tonga in the West region; - Muyuka and Kumba in the South West region. N.B: We note a high risk of observing heat waves characterised by temperatures above 30°C for several successive days over the national territory. - an overall decrease from 0.4 to 0.8°C in average minimum temperatures compared to the historical average recorded for the same period from 1950 to 2015, and a decrease from 0.1 to 0.6°C compared to the average recorded during the dekad from December 11 to 20, 2019 in the following localities; - Yagoua in the Far North region; - Lagdo in the North region; - Meiganga in the Adamawa region; - Yaounde and Akonolinga in the Centre region; - Fundong, Bali and Bamenda in the North West region; - Bertoua, Belabo, Yokadouma, Abong Mbang, Batouri, Betare Oya and Mindourou, in the East region; - Lolodorf and Sangmelima in the South region; - Bafang, Foumban, and Dschang, in the West region; - Mamfe, Mundemba, Fontem and Kumba in the South West region. - Melong, Penja, Mbanga, Dizangue and Edea in the Littoral region; - an increase in daily thermal differences in the localities of Yagoua in the Far North region; Meiganga, Banyo and Ngaoundere in the Adamawa region; Sangmelima in the South region Yaounde and Akonolinga in the Centre region; Bertoua, Belabo, Yokadouma, Abong Mbang, Batouri, Betare Oya and Mindourou, in the East region; Bamenda, Fundong and Bali in the North West region; Bafoussam, Dschang and Foumban in the West region; Mbanga in the Littoral region. II.2. For Precipitations Sporadic and localized rainfall of low intensity could be observed in the localities of - Obala, Eseka, Ngambe Tikar, Monatele, Yoko, Bafia, Nkoteng, Mbandjock, Ngoro, Yaounde, Akonolinga and Nanga Eboko in the Centre region; - Mbitom, Betare Oya, Garoua Boulai, Belabo, Batouri, Bertoua and Lomie in the East region; Periodic and localized rainfall followed by strong winds and hail could be observed in the localities of - Tiko, Bamusso, Idenau, Mundemba, Fontem; Kumba, Mutengene, Buea and Limbe in the South West region; - Edea, Mouanko and Dizangue, Melong, Mbanga, Douala and Yabassi in the Littoral region. ONACC| 1 III. Climate forecasts for the five agro-ecological zones for the period from 21st to 30th December, 2019 1) For precipitations We expect: a) In the Sudano-sahelian zone - No sign of rainfall in the North and Far North regions; b) In the Guinean high savannah zone - No sign of rainfall in the Adamawa region. c) In the bimodal rainfall forest zone - Sporadic, localized and low intensity rains in the localities of Obala, Eseka Ngambe Tikar, Monatele, Yoko, Bafia, Nanga Eboko, Nkoteng, Mbandjock, Ngoro, Yaoundé et Akonolinga in the Centre region; Mbitom, Betare Oya, Garoua Boulai, Belabo, Batouri, Bertoua, Lomie in the East region; Kribi and Nyabizan in the South region. d) In the high plateau zone - Sporadic, localized and low intensity rains in the localities of Bamendjing, Foumban, Makoupa, Nkoumangba, Foumbot; Bafoussam, Mbouda, Bafang, Bagangte, Tonga, Dschang and Bazou in the West region; Widikum, Ebang, Menka, Batibo, Guzang, Figure 1: Distribution of rainfall for the current dekad compared to that of the previous dekad from December 11 to 20, 2019 Munkep, Esu, Bamenda, Wum, Kumbo, Santa, Bali, Source : ONACC, December 2019 Bambalang, Benakuma and Fundong in the North West region. st th e) In the monomodal rainfall forest zone NB: This dekad from 21 to 30 December 2019 corresponds - LimbeSporadic, localized and low intensity rains in the to the extension of the dry season in the Sudano-Sahelian zone localities of Tiko, Bamusso, Mundemba, Fontem, (Far North and North regions), in the Guinea high savannah zone (Adamawa region), the high plateau zone (West and Kumba, Ekok, Eyumodjock, Ekang, Bamusso, Idenau, North West regions), Monomodal rainfall forest zone (Littoral Mutengene, Buea, Mamfe and Limbe in the South West and South West regions). In the bimodal rainfall forest zone region. (Centre, South and East regions); this period corresponds to - Periodic, localized rainfall accompanied by strong an extension of the long dry season. winds and hail in the localities of Edea, Mouanko, Dizangue, Melong, Nkongsamba, Manjo, Loum, Penja, Ndokoti, Mbanga, Douala and Yabassi in the Littoral region. NB : During this period, it is expected that morning and night fog will increase in some localities on the outskirts of large cities and on the hillsides of the Centre, South, East, Littoral and regions with high altitudes (West, North West and South West regions). ONACC| 2 2) For Temperatures a) For Maximum Temperatures Based on the difference between the historical average maximum temperatures registered for the same period from 1950 to 2015 and the average maximum temperatures forecast for the dekad from December 21 to 30, 2019 there is a high probability of recording an increase in the average maximum temperatures in: - Yagoua in the Extreme North region; - Garoua and Tchollire in the North region; - Banyo and Tibati in the Adamawa region; - Mindourou, Bertoua, Batouri, Belabo, Abong Mbang and Yokadouma and Betare Oya in the East region; - Sangmelima in the South region; - Bafang, Bangangte, Dschang, Foumban, Foumbot and Tonga in the West region; - Kumba Fontem, Mundemba and Muyuka in the South West region; - Akonolinga, Bafia, Eseka, Nanga Eboko, Mbandjock, Nkoteng and Figure 2: Variations in average maximum temperatures from the historical average for the same Obala, Yaounde and Mbalmayo in the Centre region. period from 1950-2015 and compared to the dekad from 11thto 20th December 2019. Source: ONACC, December 2019 N.B: We note a high risk of observing heat waves characterised by temperatures above 30°C for several successive days over the national territory, and particularly in the sudano sahelian zone (in the Far North, and North regions) as well as in the Centre and East regions. Based on the difference between the average maximum temperatures recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th December, 2019 and the average maximum temperatures forecast for the dekad from 21st to 30th December 2019, there is a high probability of recording an increase in the average maximum temperatures in: - Maroua, Yagoua, Mindif, Mokolo, and Mora in the Far North region; - Guider, Rey Bouba and Tchollire in the North region; - Abong Mbang, Bertoua, Batouri, Betare Oya, Mindourou, Belabo and Yokadouma in the East region; - Kribi and Sangmelima in the South region; - Manjo, Mbanga, Nkongsamba, Loum, and Melong in the Littoral region; - Bali and Bamenda, Fundong and Santa in the North West region; - Bamusso, Buea, Fontem, Idenau, Limbe, Mamfe, Mutengene, Muyuka, Figure 3: Variations in average minimum temperatures forecast for current dekad compared and Kumba in the South West region; to the dekad from 11th to 20th December 2019. Source: ONACC, December 2019 ONACC| 3 Alerts for maximum temperatures Figure 4 shows that during this dekad from 21st to 30th December 2019, particular attention should be paid to localities that have a very high probability of experiencing an increase in average maximum temperatures.
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