REPUBLIQUE DU CAMEROUN REPUBLIC OF Paix-Travail-Patrie Peace-Work-Fatherland ------OBSERVATOIRE NATIONAL SUR NATIONAL OBSERVATORY LES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ON CLIMATE CHANGE ------DIRECTION GENERALE DIRECTORATE GENERAL ------

ONACC

www.onacc.cm; [email protected] ; Tel : (+237) 693 370 504 / 654 392 529

BULLETIN N° 38

Dekadal climate alerts and probable impacts for the period 11th to 20th March, 2020

March 2020

© ONACC March 2020, all rights reserved

Supervision Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (ONACC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Ing. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (ONACC).

Production Team (ONACC) Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (ONACC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Ing. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (ONACC). BATHA Romain Armand Soleil, PhD student and Technical staff, ONACC. ZOUH TEM Isabella, MSc in GIS-Environment. NDJELA MBEIH Gaston Evarice, M.Sc. in Economics and Environmental Management. MEYONG René Ramsès, M.Sc. in Physical Geography (Climatology/Biogeography). ANYE Victorine Ambo, Administrative staff, ONACC ELONG Julien Aymar, M.Sc. Business and Environmental law.

I. INTRODUCTION

These forecasts are developed using spatial data collected from major international centres involved in day-to-day climate science.

These include the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) at the University of Columbia (USA); the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, USA); AccuWeather (American Weather Forecasting Agency, USA); the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD); Spatial data from 1979 to 2018, relating to Ocean Surface Temperature (OST) in the Atlantic and Pacific, El-Niño/La Nina episode intensities in the Pacific, rainfall and temperature from local stations. To this end, ONACC would like to express its gratitude to all these international structures for the good will demonstrated in the sharing of the data. This dekadal climate early warning bulletin n°38 reveals the historical climatic conditions from 1979 to 2018, as well as the climatic th th forecasts for all the five Agro ecological zones of Cameroon, for the period from 11 to 20 March, 2020. This early warning brief highlights the risks, threats and potential impacts expected in the socio-economic development sectors of Cameroon. It also makes an st th th th assessment of the forecasts developed for the decade from 1 to 10 March, 2020. This dekad from 11 to 20 March, 2020 will be characterized by the progressive set in of the monsoon from the South Atlantic Ocean in a South-West-North-East direction. In Cameroon, this monsoon will settle in the coastal zone (Littoral and South West regions), in the South, Centre and East regions. This progression will be marked by the displacement of the Inter Tropical Front (ITF) which is currently in the southern part to the northern part of the country. Despite the gradual start of the rainy season in the highland zone, the forest zone with single-mode rainfall and the short rainy season in the bimodal rainfall forest zone, we note a high probability during this dekad and throughout the national territory, of observing an increase in maximum temperatures, with a risk of heat waves.

II. FORECAST SUMMARY

II.1. For Temperatures The following locations have a high probability of experiencing a high increase in mean maximum temperatures compared to historical averages. They include: - Mbakaou, Ngaoundere and Banyo in the ; - Akonolinga, Bafia, Eseka, Mbandjock, Mbalmayo, Monatele, Yaounde, Ngoro, Nanga Eboko, Nkoteng, Yoko and Obala in the Centre region; - Ngoyla, Betare Oya and Moloundou in the East region; - in the ; - , Tonga, , Bangangte, , and in the ; - Kumba in the South West region; - Melong, Dizangue, Penja, , Edea, Mbanga, Nkongsanba, , Loum and in the Littoral region. NB : 1) During this period, we note a high risk of observing heat waves characterised by temperatures above 30°C for several successive days over the national territory. 2) There is a high probability of recording an increase in the number of days with maximum temperatures of 35-40°C in the Far North and North Regions; above 30°C in the Adamawa region and the northern part of the East region, Centre and South regions. 3) We also note a high probability of registering large differences in thermal variations over the national territory. The following locations have a high probability of experiencing a large decrease in mean minimum temperatures compared to historical averages. They include: - Mokolo, Waza, Maroua, Kaele and Mora in the Far ; - Guider, Lagdo, Rey Bouba, Touboro, Poli and Tchollire in the North region; - Garoua Boulai in the East region; - Tignere, Meiganga and Ngaoundere in the Adamawa region; - Nkoteng, Obala, Yaounde, Akonolinga and Mbalmayo in the Centre region; - Lolodorf, Ebolowa, Zoetele, Sangmelima, Akom II, and Nyabezan in the South region; - Dschang, , and Bafang in the West region; - Nkambe, Fundong, Santa, Kumbo, Widikum and Benakuma in the North West region. - Fontem, Mundemba and Limbe in the South West region. NB:The current dekad shows high probability of recording low minimum temperatures compared to the historic mean registered for the same period from 1979 to 2018 in the Extreme North, North, Adamawa and the northern part of the East region, Lolodorf, Akom II and Zoetele in the South region; Dschang, Mbouda and Bamendjing in the West region; Bali, Fundong and Kumbo in the North West region. These could also lead to cold nights. A high probability of recording an increase in daily thermal differences higher than 10°C in the localities of Yagoua in the Far North region, Banyo in the Adamawa region, Belabo, Bertoua and Yokadouma in the East region, Foumban and Bafoussam in the West region. II.1. For Precipitation A high probability of registering sporadic and localized rains may be observed in the following localities; - Eseka, Bafia, Yaounde, Obala, Mbalmayo and Monatele in the Centre region; - Batouri and Abong Mbang in the East region; - Bali, Bamenda, Santa and Kumbo in the North-West region; - Bafang, Bafoussam, Bamendjing, Bangangte, Dschang, Foumbot, Mbouda, Tonga and Bazou in the West region. st th A high probability of registering precipitation quantities in excess compared to the volume recorded in the dekad from March 1 to 10 2020 in the localities of;

- Yokadouma, Lomie II, Ngoyla and Mindourou in the East region; - Nyabessan, , Akom II, Ambam Ebolowa and Campo in the South region; - Buea, Limbe, Mamfe, Mundemba, Kumba, Eyoumedjock, Fontem, Bamuso and Tiko in the South West region; - , Manjo, Loum, Penja, Ndokiti, Edea, , Dizangue, Melong, Mbanga, Douala and Yabassi in the Littoral region. II.1. For Visibility and Air Quality An increase in haze and morning fog, with a high risk of traffic accidents for road users, in the localities of;

- Eseka, Monatele, Bafia, Nanga Eboko, Nkoteng, Mbandjock, Yaounde and Akonolinga in the Centre region;

- Mbitom, Ngoyla, Mindourou, Yokadouma, Moloundou and Lomie in the East region;

- Kribi, Campo and Nyabizan in the South region;

- Bamendjing, Foumban, Makoupa, Nkoumangba, Foumbot, Bafoussam, Mbouda, Bafang, Bagangte, Tonga, Dschang and Bazou in the West region ;

- Widikum, Ebang, Menka, Batibo, Guzang, Munkep, Esu, Bamenda, Wum, Santa, Kumbo, Bambalang, Fundong and Benakuma in the North West

region;

- Mundemba, Mamfe, Fontem, Kumba, Bamusso, Buea, Tiko, Limbe, Muyuka, Mutenguène, Idenau in the South West region.

III. Climate forecasts for the five agro-ecological zones for the period from 11th to 20th March, 2020

1) For precipitations - precipitation quantities in excess compared to the volume registered in We expect: the last dekad in the localities of Nkongsamba, Manjo, Loum, Penja, a) In the Sudano-sahelian zone Ndokoti, Edea, Mouanko, Dizangue, Melong, Douala and Yabassi in the - A high probability of recording no rainfall in the Littoral region. North and Far North regions; NB: This period will also be marked by the installation of the monsoon b) In the Guinean high savannah zone in the south-west-north-east direction, which brings humidity from the - A high probability of recording no rainfall in the southern part towards the Centre, West and East, and by the presence Adamawa region. of the Inter Tropical Front (ITF) in the southern part of the country. c) In the bimodal rainfall forest zone - A high probability of sporadic and localised rainfall in the localities of Eseka, Bafia, Yaounde, Obala, Monatele and Mbalmayo in the Centre region; Ngoyla, Mintom II, Yokadouma, Lomie and Mouloundou in the East region; - A high probability of registering precipitation excesses compared to the quantities recorded in the dekad from the 1st to 10th March, 2020 in Ambam, Campo, Kribi, Lolodorf, Ebolowa, Sangmelima, , Akom II and Nyabizan in the South region. NB: 1) The dekad of 11th to 20th March, 2020 has a high probability of heavy rainfall in Nyabizan, in the South region. (2) There is also high probability of observing thunderstorm in the South region. d) In the high plateau zone - A high probability of recording sporadic and localised rains in the localities of Bali, Bamenda and Santa; precipitations in excess compared to the quantities recorded in the last dekad in Benankuma, Fundong and Wum in the North West region; Figure 1: Variation in precipitation quantities for the current dekad compared - A high probability of recording sporadic and localised to those registered in the dekad friom the 1st to 10th March, 2020 rains in the localities of Bafoussam, Bamendjing, Source: ONACC, March 2020 Bangangte, Foumbot, Foumban, Mbouda and Tonga; NB : precipitation quantities in excess compared to the 1) This dekad of 1st 10th March 2020 corresponds to the extension of the dry volume recorded in the last dekad in Bafang, Dschang season in the Sudano-Sahelian zone (Far North and North regions), Guinean High and Bazou in the West region. Savannah zone (Adamawa region), e) In the mono-modal rainfall forest zone 2) It corresponds to the beginning of the rainy season in the High Plateau zone - A probability of registering precipitation excesses (West and North West regions), compared to the volume registered in the dekad from 3) In the Forest zone with Monomodal rainfall (Littoral and South-West regions), the 1st to 10th March, 2020 in the localities of Tiko, this period corresponds to the progressive installation of the rainy season. Eyumojock, Mutengene, Buea, Idenau, Mamfe, Limbe, 2) This period corresponds to the progressive installation of the short rainy season Mundemba and Kumba in the South West region. in the Forest zone with Bimodal rainfall (Centre, South and East regions). 2) For Temperatures

a) For Maximum Temperatures Based on the historical average of maximum temperatures averages recorded from 1979 to 2018, that is 38.95°C in the Far North region, 39.5°C in the North region, 33°C in the Adamawa region, 29.36°C in the Centre, 29.88°C in the South region, 30.95 in the East regions, 27.7°C in West, 27.83 in the North West, 29.1°C in the South West region, 28.66°C in the In the Littoral region, there is a high probability of recording;

- average maximum temperatures around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 - average maximum temperatures around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Bazou in Kousseri; Bogo, Yagoua, Mora, Maroua, Maga, Kaele, and Waza; below the historical and above the historical average in Foumbot, Foumban, Tonga, Bafoussam, Bafang, and Bangangte average in Mindif and Mokolo in the Far North region; in the West region; - average maximum temperatures below the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 at - average maximum temperatures above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 at Touboro and around the historical average in Poli, Dembo, Lagdo, Pitoa, Guider, Rey Bouba Abolowa and around the historical average at Campo, Lolodorf, Zoetele, Akom II Sangmelima, and Tchollire in the North region; Ambam andd Djoum and below the historical average in Kribi in the South region; - average maximum temperatures above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in - average maximum temperatures around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Mbakaou, Banyo and Ngaoundere; below the historical average at Tignere and Meiganga in Mamfe, Nguti, Tiko, Buea Idenao, Eyumojock, Muyuka, Bamusso, Limbé, Fontem et Mundemba the Adamawa region; and above the historical average in Kumba in the South West region; - average maximum temperatures above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in - average maximum temperatures above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in, Akonolinga, Bafia, Eseka, Mbandjock, Mbalmayo, Monatele, Yaounde, Ngoro, Nanga Eboko, Nkoteng, Yoko and Obala, in the Centre region; Melong, Dizangue, Penja, Yabassi, Mbanga, Nkongsanba, Douala, Loum and Manjo and around the - average maximum temperatures below the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in historical average in Mouanko and Edea in the Littoral region. Belabo, Bertoua, Batouri, Yokadouma, Abong-Mbang, Mindourou and Lomie; above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Ngoyla, Betare Oya and Mouloundou in the NB: During this period, we note a very high risk of observing heat waves characterised by East region; temperatures above 30°C for several successive days over the national territory, and particularly in - average maximum temperatures around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 the Far North, North, Centre, South and East regions. in, Wum, Kumbo and Bali and Benakuma in the North West region;

Figure 2: Variations in average maximum temperatures for the current dekad (a) compared to those registered for the same period from 1979 to 2018; (b) and expected anomalies for the current dekad. (Source: ONACC, March2020)

st th Based on the difference between the average maximum temperatures recorded in the dekad from 1 to 10 March, 2020 and the average maximum temperatures forecast for the dekad from 11th to 20th March 2020, there is a high probability of registering:

- mean maximum temperatures above those recorded from 1st to 10th March, 2020 in Kousseri; - average maximum temperatures below those recorded from 1st to 10th March 2020 in Kribi and Mindif, Kaele, Maroua, Mora, Waza, Bogo, Maga and Yagoua; below the mean at Mindif and Ambam; around those recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th March, 2020 in Nyabissan and Campo and Mokolo in the Far North region; above the mean in Akom II, Ebolowa, Zoetele; Lolodorf, Sangmelima and Djoum in the South region;

- mean maximum temperatures above than those recorded from 1st to 10th March, 2020 in Touboro; - mean maximum temperatures around those recorded from 1st to 10th March, 2020 in Mamfe, Buea, around the mean at Poli; Tchollire, Rey Bouba, Dembo, Garoua, Guider and Lagdo in the North Tiko, Nguti and Mundemba; above the mean in Fontem, Limbe, Idenau, Kumba, Muyuka, Tiko, and region; Eyumojock in the South West region; - mean maximum temperatures above those recorded in the last dekad in Tibati, Banyo, Mbakaou; - average maximum temperatures above the average recorded from 1st to 10th March, 2020 in Edea and Tignere , Meiganga and Ngaoundere and in the Adamawa region; Mouanko; above the mean in Melong, Dizangue, Penja, Yabassi, Mbanga, Nkongsanba, Douala, Loum - mean maximum temperatures below those recorded in the last dekad in Moloundou and above the and Manjo in the Littoral region. mean in Abong-Mbang, Ngoyla, Lomie, Mindourou, Yokadouma, , Bertoua, Belabo and Batouri; - mean maximum temperatures around the average recorded from 1st to 10th March, 2020 in Bali Wum, below the average recorded from 1st to 10th March, 2020 in Betare Oya in the East region; Kumbo, Santa and Bamenda in the North West region;

- average maximum temperatures above than those recorded from 1st to 10th March 2020 in - mean maximum temperatures around the average recorded from 1st to 10th March, 2020 in Bazou and Yaounde, Nkoteng and Obala, Mbalmayo, Akonolinga, , Eseka, Monatele, Bafia, Ngoro, Yoko and above the average recorded from 1st to 10th March, 2020 in Foumbot, Bafang, Bangangte, Dschang, Nanga Eboko, in the Centre region; Foumban, Bafoussam and Tonga, in the West region.

Figure 3: Variations in average maximum temperatures forecast for current dekad (b) compared to the dekad from 1st to 10th March 2020, (a) expected anomalies for the period from 11th to 20th March 2020(c). Source: ONACC, March 2020

Alerts for maximum temperatures

During this dekad from 11th to 20th March 2020, particular attention should be paid to

localities that have a very high probability of experiencing an increase in average maximum temperatures compared to their historic means for the same period from 1979 to 2018. These include: - Mbakaou, Ngaoundere and Banyo in the Adamawa region;

- Akonolinga, Bafia, Eseka, Mbandjock, Mbalmayo, Monatele, Yaounde, Ngoro, Nanga

Eboko, Nkoteng, Yoko and Obala in the Centre region;

- Ngoyla, Betare Oya and Moloundou in the East region; - Ebolowa in the South region; - Foumbot, Tonga, Bafang, Bangangte, Mbouda, Dschang and Bafoussam in the West region;

- Kumba in the South West region;

a) For Minimum Temperatures Based on the historical average minimum temperatures registered for the same period from 1979 to 2018, that is 23.1°C in the Far North region, 22.1°C in the Adamawa region, 25.6°C in the North region, 20.1°C in the East region, 17.6°C in the West, 17.6 in the North West regions; 19.1°C in the Centre region, 21.3°C in the South region, 22.3°C in the South West region, 21°C in the Littoral region, there is a high probability registering: - average minimum temperatures below the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in - average minimum temperatures around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Obala Mora, Waza, Bogo and Maroua; around the historical average for the same period in Kaele, and Nkoteng; below the historical mean in Yaounde and Mbalmayo and above the historical average Mindif, Kousseri, Yagoua and Maga in the Far North region; in Ngoro, Monatele, Eseka, Yoko and Bafia in the Centre Region; - average minimum temperatures below the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Poli, - average minimum temperatures around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Tonga, Tchollire, Rey Bouba, Mandingrin and Touboro; around the historical average in Dembo, Garoua Bazou, Bangangte, Bafang, Foumban, Bamendjing, Bafoussam and Dschang, in the West Region; and Pitoa in the North region; - average minimum temperatures around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Bali, - average minimum temperatures below the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Fundong, Bamenda, Kumbo, Santa, Benakuma and Wum in the North-West Region; Ngaoundere, Tignere, Mbakaou and Meiganga; and around the historical average in Banyo and - minimum temperatures above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Eyumojock, Tibati in the Adamawa region; Mamfe, Mundemba, Idenau Tiko, Kumba, Bamusso and Muyuka, in the South West region. - average minimum temperatures below the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Betare Oya and Garoua Boulai; and above the historical average in Lomie, Abong-Mbang, - -minimum temperatures above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Mbanga, Belabo, Bertoua, Yokadouma, Batouri, Moloundou, Ngoyla and Mindourou in the East Region; Yabassi, Loum, Douala, Dizangue, Edea, Mouanko, Manjo, Melong, Nkongsamba, and Penja in the - average minimum temperatures above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Kribi Littoral region. and Campo; and around the historical average in Nyabisan, Campo, Sangmelima, Zoetele,, Lolodorf, Ebolowa, Akom II and Djoum in the South region;

Figure 4: Variations in average minimum temperatures for the current dekad (a) compared to historical averages from 1979 to 2018 for the same period (b) and expected anomalies for the period from 11th to 20th March, 2020. (c)

Source: ONACC, March 2020

Based on the difference between the average minimum temperatures recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th March, 2020 and the average minimum temperatures th th expected for the dekad from 11 to 20 March, 2020, there is a high probability of registering:

- average minimum temperatures below those recorded from 1st to 10th March, 2020 in Maroua, - mean minimum temperatures above the mean recorded from 1st to 10th March, 2020 in Mouanko, Mora, Mokolo and Bogo; around the average in Maroua, Waza, Kaele and Mindif and higher Mbanga, Yabassi, Dizangue, Melong, Nkongsamba, Penja, Loum, Douala, Manjo and Edea in the than those recorded from 1st to 10th March, 2020 in Maga, Yagoua and Kousseri in the Far Littoral region; North region; - average minimum temperatures above the average recorded from 1st to 10th March 2020 in Kribi, - av erage minimum temperatures lower than those recorded from 1st to 10th March, 2020 in around the mean in Akom II, Campo, Nyabisan, Ebolowa, Sangmelima, Zoetele, and Djoum; Mandingrin, Rey Bouba, Lagdo and Touboro; around the average in Garoua, Dembo and Pitoa in Lolodorf and Zoetele in the South region; the North region; - mean minimum temperatures around the mean recorded from 1st to 10th March 2020 in Tonga, - average minimum temperatures below the average recorded from February 1st to 10th March, Bazou, Bangangte, Foumban, Bafang, Bafoussam, Dschang and Bamending in the West region; 2020 in Tignere, Banyo, Ngaoundere, Mbakaou, Tibati and Meiganga, in the Adamawa region; - mean minimum temperatures above the mean recorded from 1st to 10th March, 2020 in Mamfe, - average minimum temperatures around the average recorded from 1st to 10th March, 2020 in Tiko, Bamusso, Muyuka, Eyumojock, Mundemba and Idenau in the South-West Region; Eseka and Monatele; above the average recorded from 1st to 10th March 2020 in Yoko and Ngoro - mean minimum temperatures around the average recorded from 1st to 10th March 2020 in Wum and below the average in Yaounde, Mbalmayo, Obala and Akonoloinga in the Centre region; and Benakuma, Fundong, Kumbo, Bali and Bamenda in the North West Region. - average minimum temperatures around the average recorded from 1st to 10th March, 2020 in

Yokadouma, Lomie, Belabo, Abong-Mbang, Bertoua, Ngoyla, Moloundou and Mindourou; below the average in Betare Oya and Garoua Boulai and above in Batouri in the East region. region; NB: During this period we note a high risk of an increase in cold nights in the localities of Kaele in the Far North region; Guider, Garoua, Rey Bouba and Tchollire in the North region; Tibati, Tignere and Mbakaou, in the Adamawa region; Yoko in the Centre region.

Figure 5: Variation in minimum temperatures forecast for the dekad from 11th to 20th March, 2020 b) Compared to those registered for the dekad from 1st to 10th March 2020 (a) and expected anomalies for the period from 11th to 20th March, 2020 (c).

Source : ONACC, March2020

Alerts for minimum temperatures

th th During this dekad from 11 to 20 March, 2020, particular attention should be paid to localities that are very likely to experience a decrease in average minimum temperatures compared to their historic values for the same period from 1979 to 2018. These localities include; - Mokolo, Waza, Maroua, Kaele and Mora in the Far North region;

- Guider, Lagdo, Rey Bouba, Touboro, Poli and Tchollire in the North region; - Tignere, Meiganga and Ngaoundere in the Adamawa region; - Garoua Boulai in the East region; - Nkoteng, Obala, Yaounde, Akonolinga and Mbalmayo in the Centre region;

- Dschang, Bamendjou, Bafangand Bazou in the West region;

- Santa, Bamenda, Kumbo, Widikum, Nkambe and Benakuma in the North West region.

IV. Risks and alerts on socio-economic sectors a) In the agricultural sector: d) In the water and energy sector: - An increase in bush fires due to the dryness of the season combined with the - A risk drying up of water supply points as a result of the decrease in the water effect of dry winds and high temperatures, resulting in the destruction of plantations (cocoa, coffee, banana, food crops, etc.), in the Far North, North and level of the groundwater table in the Far North, North and the northern part of the Adamawa regions. north ern part of the Adamawa regions; - hydric stress, for market gardening and food crops in Far North, North and the - a high risk of a decrease in the volume of water in dams, and water catchment northern part of the Adamawa regions. and treatment sites in the Far North, North and the northern part of the - Increased insect pest attacks on cereals in the Extreme North, North and the Adamawa region. northern part of the Adamawa regions; e) In the environment and biodiversity sector:

- A risk of the occurrence of thick fog, especially in the early morning for some NB: This period corresponds to the beginning of the planting season in some localities located on the outskirts of large cities and on the hillsides of cities such as localities of Bimodal rainfall forest zone, notably, in the South Region. Yaounde, Ebolowa and Bertoua in the Bimodal rainfall forest zone; Bamenda, Santa, Menka, Batibo, Guzang, Munkep, Esu, Kumbo, Bali, Fundong and Wum in the b) In the health sector: A risk of recording cases of: Highlands zone; Fontem, Mamfe, Buea, Limbe, Kumba, Tiko, Idenau and - Diarrh oea, following the scarcity and poor quality of drinking water in the five Mutenguene, Loum, Manjo, Mbanga, Penja, Souza, Edea and Nkongsamba in the Agro-ecological zones; Mono-modal rainfall forest zone, with a high risk of traffic accidents; - meningococcal meningitis following the severe drought that is affecting some - A risk of recording many cases of: localities in the Far North and North regions, coupled with an increased presence of - bush fires in various localities in the Far North, North, Adamawa and North dust in the air; West regions; - Conjunctivitis due to the effects of a combination of heat and dusty winds in various - poaching in areas close to protected areas due to their migration out of reserves localities in the Far North and North regions; in search of water and food in the Far North, North and the northern part of the - Respiratory diseases (flu, cough, bronchitis, colds, asthma, etc.) in the Far North, Adamawa regions; and North regions, due to an increasing presence of dust in the air and the cold nights - conflicts between farmers and certain wildlife species in the Far North, North during this period; and the northern part of the Adamawa regions; - General pathology with systematic disorders in children, people living suffering f) In the livestock sector: from diabetes, obesity or any pathology requiring medication acting on - numerous cases of epizootic diseases due to the cold weather in some localities in thermoregulation in the Far North, North and the northern part of the Adamawa the Far North, North and Adamawa regions; regions ; - Syncope and psychological stress in schools, following the torrid heat, especially - scarcity of pasture and water resources in the Far North, North and Adamawa among asthmatic subjects in the Far North, North and the northern part of the regions - migration of transhumant herders in search of water points and grazing land in the Adamawa region. c) In the tourism sector: Far North, North, northern part of the Adamawa and and the Northwest regions; - high risk of recording many cases of animal migration, due to water shortages in - increase in conflicts between herders and farmers over water points, plains and lowlands in the Far North, North, northern part of the Adamawa and and the tourist sites in the Far North, North and the northern part of the Adamawa regions. Northwest regions.

VI. Assessment of climate predictions for the decade from 1st to 10th March, 2020

Guinea High Monomodal Rainfall Agro Ecological zones Soudano-Sahelian Bimodal Rainfall forest High plateau Savannah Forest Regions Far North North Adamawa East Centre South West Nord West South West Littoral

Minimum temperatures

Historic mean (°C) 23,1 25,6 22,1 20,1 19,1 21,3 17,6 17,6 22,3 21

Trend forecasts

Forecasts success rate (%) 100 94 72 82 88 100 82 77,9 83,14 100

Maximum temperatures

Historic mean (°C) 37,78 38,73 34,74 30,39 29 29,5 28,28 28,35 29,56 28,5

Trend forecasts

Forecasts success rate (%) 75,3 70,2 81,6 78 71,83 80 66 71 74,32 70,8

Precipitations

Historic mean (mm) 0-2 0-2 0-2 0-13 0-22 5-50 0-13 0-4 0-34 5-34

Trend forecasts ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈

Forecasts success rate (%) 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

≈ = Around the mean; = Reduction; = Increase

VII. Some recommendations

It is recommended within this period to: a) In the agricultural sector Continue sowing in the current dekad at: - Ebolowa, Sangmelima, Kribi and Lolodorf in the South region. . b) In the health sector - raise public awareness to strictly respect basic hygiene and sanitation rules (wash food items, filter drinking water before consumption in households, use latrines, avoid the accumulation of household waste in the vicinity of dwellings, etc.); - sensitize populations to drink a lot of water and moderate their consumption of alcohol within this period; - dress warmly and put on sleeping gear for protection from the cold nights during this period; - encourage the population to sleep under mosquito nets. - Strengthen community monitoring at the level of rural health centres to ensure rapid investigation and speedy management of suspicious cases. c) In the livestock sector - organise vaccination campaigns for small and big livestock as well as poultry to prevent epizootic diseases; - raise awareness to promote fodder cultivation for livestock feed and distribution of fodder crops in preparation for the dry season. - keeping livestock away from the fields and surround the fields with barbed wire; - practice sedentary animal husbandry; - raise awareness on the dangers of bush fires and their impacts on the environment and biodiversity in the Far North, North and Adamawa regions.

For more information, contact: P.O. Box 35414 House no 1220, Streand no 1793, Bastos, Yaounde, Cameroon Tel. (237)693 370 504 /(237)222 209 500 E-mail: [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected] Website: www.onacc.cm