Dekadal Climate Alerts and Probable Impacts for the Period 11Th to 20Th March, 2020
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
REPUBLIQUE DU CAMEROUN REPUBLIC OF CAMEROON Paix-Travail-Patrie Peace-Work-Fatherland ----------- ----------- OBSERVATOIRE NATIONAL SUR NATIONAL OBSERVATORY LES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ON CLIMATE CHANGE ----------------- ----------------- DIRECTION GENERALE DIRECTORATE GENERAL ----------------- ----------------- ONACC www.onacc.cm; [email protected] ; Tel : (+237) 693 370 504 / 654 392 529 BULLETIN N° 38 Dekadal climate alerts and probable impacts for the period 11th to 20th March, 2020 March 2020 © ONACC March 2020, all rights reserved Supervision Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (ONACC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Ing. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (ONACC). Production Team (ONACC) Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (ONACC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Ing. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (ONACC). BATHA Romain Armand Soleil, PhD student and Technical staff, ONACC. ZOUH TEM Isabella, MSc in GIS-Environment. NDJELA MBEIH Gaston Evarice, M.Sc. in Economics and Environmental Management. MEYONG René Ramsès, M.Sc. in Physical Geography (Climatology/Biogeography). ANYE Victorine Ambo, Administrative staff, ONACC ELONG Julien Aymar, M.Sc. Business and Environmental law. I. INTRODUCTION These forecasts are developed using spatial data collected from major international centres involved in day-to-day climate science. These include the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) at the University of Columbia (USA); the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, USA); AccuWeather (American Weather Forecasting Agency, USA); the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD); Spatial data from 1979 to 2018, relating to Ocean Surface Temperature (OST) in the Atlantic and Pacific, El-Niño/La Nina episode intensities in the Pacific, rainfall and temperature from local stations. To this end, ONACC would like to express its gratitude to all these international structures for the good will demonstrated in the sharing of the data. This dekadal climate early warning bulletin n°38 reveals the historical climatic conditions from 1979 to 2018, as well as the climatic th th forecasts for all the five Agro ecological zones of Cameroon, for the period from 11 to 20 March, 2020. This early warning brief highlights the risks, threats and potential impacts expected in the socio-economic development sectors of Cameroon. It also makes an st th th th assessment of the forecasts developed for the decade from 1 to 10 March, 2020. This dekad from 11 to 20 March, 2020 will be characterized by the progressive set in of the monsoon from the South Atlantic Ocean in a South-West-North-East direction. In Cameroon, this monsoon will settle in the coastal zone (Littoral and South West regions), in the South, Centre and East regions. This progression will be marked by the displacement of the Inter Tropical Front (ITF) which is currently in the southern part to the northern part of the country. Despite the gradual start of the rainy season in the highland zone, the forest zone with single-mode rainfall and the short rainy season in the bimodal rainfall forest zone, we note a high probability during this dekad and throughout the national territory, of observing an increase in maximum temperatures, with a risk of heat waves. II. FORECAST SUMMARY II.1. For Temperatures The following locations have a high probability of experiencing a high increase in mean maximum temperatures compared to historical averages. They include: - Mbakaou, Ngaoundere and Banyo in the Adamawa region; - Akonolinga, Bafia, Eseka, Mbandjock, Mbalmayo, Monatele, Yaounde, Ngoro, Nanga Eboko, Nkoteng, Yoko and Obala in the Centre region; - Ngoyla, Betare Oya and Moloundou in the East region; - Ebolowa in the South region; - Foumbot, Tonga, Bafang, Bangangte, Mbouda, Dschang and Bafoussam in the West region; - Kumba in the South West region; - Melong, Dizangue, Penja, Yabassi, Edea, Mbanga, Nkongsanba, Douala, Loum and Manjo in the Littoral region. NB : 1) During this period, we note a high risk of observing heat waves characterised by temperatures above 30°C for several successive days over the national territory. 2) There is a high probability of recording an increase in the number of days with maximum temperatures of 35-40°C in the Far North and North Regions; above 30°C in the Adamawa region and the northern part of the East region, Centre and South regions. 3) We also note a high probability of registering large differences in thermal variations over the national territory. The following locations have a high probability of experiencing a large decrease in mean minimum temperatures compared to historical averages. They include: - Mokolo, Waza, Maroua, Kaele and Mora in the Far North region; - Guider, Lagdo, Rey Bouba, Touboro, Poli and Tchollire in the North region; - Garoua Boulai in the East region; - Tignere, Meiganga and Ngaoundere in the Adamawa region; - Nkoteng, Obala, Yaounde, Akonolinga and Mbalmayo in the Centre region; - Lolodorf, Ebolowa, Zoetele, Sangmelima, Akom II, Ambam and Nyabezan in the South region; - Dschang, Bamendjou, Bazou and Bafang in the West region; - Nkambe, Fundong, Santa, Kumbo, Widikum and Benakuma in the North West region. - Fontem, Mundemba and Limbe in the South West region. NB:The current dekad shows high probability of recording low minimum temperatures compared to the historic mean registered for the same period from 1979 to 2018 in the Extreme North, North, Adamawa and the northern part of the East region, Lolodorf, Akom II and Zoetele in the South region; Dschang, Mbouda and Bamendjing in the West region; Bali, Fundong and Kumbo in the North West region. These could also lead to cold nights. A high probability of recording an increase in daily thermal differences higher than 10°C in the localities of Yagoua in the Far North region, Banyo in the Adamawa region, Belabo, Bertoua and Yokadouma in the East region, Foumban and Bafoussam in the West region. II.1. For Precipitation A high probability of registering sporadic and localized rains may be observed in the following localities; - Eseka, Bafia, Yaounde, Obala, Mbalmayo and Monatele in the Centre region; - Batouri and Abong Mbang in the East region; - Bali, Bamenda, Santa and Kumbo in the North-West region; - Bafang, Bafoussam, Bamendjing, Bangangte, Dschang, Foumbot, Mbouda, Tonga and Bazou in the West region. st th A high probability of registering precipitation quantities in excess compared to the volume recorded in the dekad from March 1 to 10 2020 in the localities of; - Yokadouma, Lomie Mintom II, Ngoyla and Mindourou in the East region; - Nyabessan, Kribi, Akom II, Ambam Ebolowa and Campo in the South region; - Buea, Limbe, Mamfe, Mundemba, Kumba, Eyoumedjock, Fontem, Bamuso and Tiko in the South West region; - Nkongsamba, Manjo, Loum, Penja, Ndokiti, Edea, Mouanko, Dizangue, Melong, Mbanga, Douala and Yabassi in the Littoral region. II.1. For Visibility and Air Quality An increase in haze and morning fog, with a high risk of traffic accidents for road users, in the localities of; - Eseka, Monatele, Bafia, Nanga Eboko, Nkoteng, Mbandjock, Yaounde and Akonolinga in the Centre region; - Mbitom, Ngoyla, Mindourou, Yokadouma, Moloundou and Lomie in the East region; - Kribi, Campo and Nyabizan in the South region; - Bamendjing, Foumban, Makoupa, Nkoumangba, Foumbot, Bafoussam, Mbouda, Bafang, Bagangte, Tonga, Dschang and Bazou in the West region ; - Widikum, Ebang, Menka, Batibo, Guzang, Munkep, Esu, Bamenda, Wum, Santa, Kumbo, Bambalang, Fundong and Benakuma in the North West region; - Mundemba, Mamfe, Fontem, Kumba, Bamusso, Buea, Tiko, Limbe, Muyuka, Mutenguène, Idenau in the South West region. III. Climate forecasts for the five agro-ecological zones for the period from 11th to 20th March, 2020 1) For precipitations - precipitation quantities in excess compared to the volume registered in We expect: the last dekad in the localities of Nkongsamba, Manjo, Loum, Penja, a) In the Sudano-sahelian zone Ndokoti, Edea, Mouanko, Dizangue, Melong, Douala and Yabassi in the - A high probability of recording no rainfall in the Littoral region. North and Far North regions; NB: This period will also be marked by the installation of the monsoon b) In the Guinean high savannah zone in the south-west-north-east direction, which brings humidity from the - A high probability of recording no rainfall in the southern part towards the Centre, West and East, and by the presence Adamawa region. of the Inter Tropical Front (ITF) in the southern part of the country. c) In the bimodal rainfall forest zone - A high probability of sporadic and localised rainfall in the localities of Eseka, Bafia, Yaounde, Obala, Monatele and Mbalmayo in the Centre region; Ngoyla, Mintom II, Yokadouma, Lomie and Mouloundou in the East region; - A high probability of registering precipitation excesses compared to the quantities recorded in the dekad from the 1st to 10th March, 2020 in Ambam, Campo, Kribi, Lolodorf, Ebolowa, Sangmelima, Djoum, Akom II and Nyabizan in the South region. NB: 1) The dekad of 11th to 20th March, 2020 has a high probability of heavy rainfall in Nyabizan, in the South region. (2) There is also high probability of observing thunderstorm in the South region.