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Coffee and Climate Change: Impacts and Options for Adaption in Brazil

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Coffee and Climate Change: Impacts and Options for Adaption in Brazil NATURAL RESOURCES INSTITUTE NRI Working Paper Series: Climate Change, Agriculture and Natural Resources No. 4 Coffee and Climate Change Impacts and options for adaption in Brazil, Guatemala, Tanzania and Vietnam Authors: Jeremy Haggar and Kathleen Schepp www.nri.org Coffee and Climate Change Impacts and options for adaption in Brazil, Guatemala, Tanzania and Vietnam Authors: Jeremy Haggar and Kathleen Schepp February 2012 This study has been prepared by Jeremy Haggar of the Natural Resources Institute, University of Greenwich, and Kathleen Schepp, an independent consultant, and was commissioned by the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ). The views expressed in this document do not necessarily represent the views of GIZ, nor does GIZ take any responsibility for the accuracy of information contained in the document. Any recommendations presented refer to suggestions made by the authors and have not necessarily been endorsed by GIZ. For further information please contact Jeremy Haggar ([email protected]) or Kathleen Schepp ([email protected]). See www.nri.org for further details of our work and for other papers in this series. Contents Introduction 3 I Summary of findings 3 General impacts of climate change on coffee 3 Climate change impacts on coffee in Guatemala 4 Climate change impacts on coffee in Brazil 4 Climate change impacts on coffee in Tanzania 5 Climate change impacts on coffee in Vietnam 5 Climate change mitigation and adaptation in the coffee sector 6 Monitoring climate change in coffee growing regions 6 Adaptation strategies 6 Climate modules and codes 6 Mitigation strategies 6 Recommendations for the coffee and climate initiative 7 II General information on possible climate change impacts in coffee crop 8 Impacts on the coffee Arabica plant 8 Impacts on the coffee Robusta Plant 8 Impacts on the coffee industry 9 Climate change impact assessment tools 9 1. Country profile: Guatemala 10 Summary of findings 10 1.1 Projections of future climate change 10 Predicted climate changes 10 Climate variability 10 1.2 Impacts of climate change 11 Impact on agriculture 11 Effects on coffee 11 Impacts and limitations to adaptation 12 1.3 Initiatives for adaptation to climate change 13 AdapCC 13 Coffee Under Pressure 13 Climate insurance 13 Innovation in adaptation to climate and market change for coffee value chains 14 CafAdapt 14 1.4 Mitigation options 14 1.5 Recommendations of priorities for adaptation and mitigation in Guatemala 15 2. Country profile: Brazil 16 Summary of findings 16 2.1 Past and future projections of climate change 16 Past climate tendencies 16 Regional climate models (RCM) estimate temperature and precipitation 16 Climate change impact scenarios 17 2.2 The coffee sector in Brazil 17 Summary of status of coffee sector in Brazil 17 Climate change vulnerability of Brazilian coffee sector 18 Coffee sector organisations 18 2.3 Expected changes in coffee production 18 2.4 Proposed adaptation measures to climate change 23 2.5 Climate change adaptation and mitigation initiatives in Brazil 24 iii 3. Country profile: Tanzania 26 Summary of country findings 26 3.1 Past and future projections of changes in climate 26 Past climate tendencies 26 Global climate model estimates of future temperature 26 Global climate model estimates of change in precipitation 26 3.2 Summary of status of coffee sector in Tanzania 27 Coffee sector organisations 27 3.3 Changes in coffee production 28 Other agricultural crops 28 Coffee and climate change predictions for Kenya 28 Coffee in Uganda 28 Conclusions regarding impacts on coffee in Tanzania 29 3.4 General adaptation measures 29 3.5 Initiatives in adaptation and mitigation of climate change in Tanzania 30 Carbon footprint of Tanzanian coffee 30 Climate change and impacts on Kilimanjaro 30 Perceptions about impacts of climate change by farmers in Rungwe District, Mbeya region 31 3.6 Recommendations of priorities for adaptation and mitigation in Tanzania 33 4. Country profile: Vietnam 34 Summary of findings 34 4.1 Past and future projections of climate change 34 Past climate tendencies 34 Global climate model (GCM) estimates temperature and precipitation 35 Climate change impact scenarios 35 4.2 The coffee sector in Vietnam 35 Summary of status of coffee sector in Vietnam 35 Climate change vulnerability of Vietnamese coffee sector 35 Coffee sector organisations 37 4.3 Expected changes in coffee production 37 4.4 Proposed adaptation measures to climate change 38 4.5 Climate change adaptation and mitigation initiatives in Vietnam 39 International support programmes 39 National support programmes 39 Mitigation Options 39 III Strategies for adaptation and mitigation of climate change in the coffee sector 40 Monitoring of climate change in coffee growing regions 40 Strategies for adaptation 40 Community based analysis of climate risks and opportunities 41 Sustainable production techniques 41 Climate insurance 42 Financing 42 Payment for environmental services 42 Organisation among small producers 42 Value chain adaptation strategies 42 Climate modules and codes 42 Strategies for mitigation of climate change 43 iv IV Recommendations 44 References 45 ANNEX I 47 List of stakeholders 47 1 List of tables 1. Optimal and absolute growing conditions for Arabica and Robusta coffee 9 2. Changes in altitudinal range apt for Arabica coffee production (minimum 30% suitability) 11 3. Changes in area suitable for coffee production in Guatemala 11 4. Recommendations of priorities for adaptation and mitigation in Guatemala 15 5. Alterations to the coffee Arabica plantations in southeast and southern Brazil 21 6. Estimation of suitable area, production and financial return 22 7. Estimation of suitable area, production and financial return 23 8. Changes in altitudinal range for coffee in Kenya 28 9. Land-use in the different vegetation zones of Mount Kilimanjaro 31 10. The effects of changing climate and variability on their 3 main crops as mentioned 32 by male farmers 11. Recommendations of priorities for adaptation and mitigation in Tanzania 33 12. Coffee production in Vietnam 36 13. Climate change adaptation policy recommendations from different authors 41 List of boxes 1. Use of irrigation in Vietnam 36 2. Proposed coffee strategy for Vietnam 38 List of figures 1. Map of change in suitability for coffee production in Mesoamerica 12 2. Current scenario for coffee cultivation on Brazil 19 3. Optimistic outlook scenario for coffee cultivation 20 4. Pessimistic outlook scenario for coffee cultivation 20 5. Climate risk zoning for coffee in Sao Paulo 21 6. Climate risk zoning for coffee in Minas Gerais 22 7. Potential impacts of global warming, GRID-Geneva, case studies on climactic change 29 2 Introduction I. Summary of findings Gustav Paulig Ltd., Joh. Johannson Kaffe AS, Löfbergs Stakeholders in the coffee value chains in all four countries Lila AB, Neumann Gruppe GmbH, Tchibo GmbH, already perceive changes in coffee production that can Fondazione Giuseppe e Pericle Lavazza Onlus, and the be linked with changing climate conditions, although Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit only two of the countries can count on specific climate (GIZ) on behalf of German Federal Ministry for Economic predictions. In Guatemala and Brazil, where scientific Cooperation and Development (BMZ) are implementing a institutions provide suitability maps, large changes in the supra regional Development Partnership with a focus on distribution of the coffee are expected over the next forty coffee and climate change. The objective of the initiative years with a smaller net loss in the total area suitable for for coffee and climate is that producers and service coffee production. These predictions serve very well to providers along selected green coffee supply chains in start the development of adequate adaptation strategies. key coffee regions have access to adequate knowledge In Vietnam climate impact scenarios, are accessible and instruments that enable them to apply and finance for agriculture, but there are no estimates of impacts effective climate change adaption and mitigation strategies. on Robusta cultivation, while Vietnam is the world’s In order to be better prepared for the impacts of climate largest Robusta producer. Nevertheless, the institutional change, scientific research on a regional basis is necessary. framework in Vietnam appears to be very supportive Therefore short country portfolios on coffee and climate of climate change initiatives and representatives at change had been developed for the four pilot countries governmental and academic institutions are highly Brazil, Vietnam, Tanzania and Guatemala. motivated to cooperate. In Tanzania climate change data based on international research are generally available, For the present work several stakeholders at international but coffee impact scenarios only exist for the neighbouring level and national level in the four pilot countries were countries of Kenya and Uganda. Also the institutional contacted (see Annex I). They provided information on the framework is rather weak. Consequently, the coffee and national coffee sector, climate change data and impact climate initiative should invest in building institutional scenarios as well as research studies on climate change capacities in Tanzania and also in Vietnam as well as in impacts on coffee production and trade, so far available. generating baseline information. All available information was studied and systematised Without question, all four pilot countries
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