COAL REPORT REPORT COAL COAL REPORT TURKEY’S COAL POLICIES RELATED TO CLIMATE CHANGE, ECONOMY AND HEALTH AND HEALTH ECONOMY CHANGE, CLIMATE TO POLICIES RELATED TURKEY’S COAL TURKEY’S COAL POLICIES RELATED TO CLIMATE CHANGE, ECONOMY AND HEALTH ÜMIT ŞAHIN, AHMET ATIL AŞICI, SEVIL ACAR, PINAR GEDIKKAYA BAL, ALI OSMAN KARABABA, LEVENT KURNAZ Istanbul Policy Center Bankalar Caddesi No: 2 Minerva Han 34420 Karaköy, Istanbul TURKEY +90 212 292 49 39 +90 212 292 49 57 @ [email protected] ISBN: 978-605-9178-40-2 w ipc.sabanciuniv.edu COAL REPORT TURKEY’S COAL POLICIES RELATED TO CLIMATE CHANGE, ECONOMY AND HEALTH ÜMIT ŞAHIN (EDITOR) AHMET ATIL AŞICI SEVIL ACAR PINAR GEDIKKAYA BAL ALI OSMAN KARABABA LEVENT KURNAZ April 2016 About Istanbul Policy Center Istanbul Policy Center (IPC) is an independent policy research institute with global outreach. Its mission is to foster academic research in social sciences and its application to policy making. The IPC team is firmly committed to providing decision-makers, opinion leaders, academics, and the general public with innovative and objective analyses in key domestic and foreign policy issues. IPC has expertise in a wide range of areas, including – but not exhaustive to – Turkey-EU-U.S. relations, education, climate change, current trends of political and social transformation in Turkey, as well as the impact of civil society and local governance on this metamorphosis. www.ipc.sabanciuniv.edu Authors* Assoc. Prof. Dr. Sevil Acar – Istanbul Kemerburgaz University Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ahmet Atıl Aşıcı – Istanbul Technical University Assist. Prof. Dr. Pınar Gedikkaya Bal – Beykent University Prof. Dr. Ali Osman Karababa – Ege University Prof. Dr. Levent Kurnaz – Boğaziçi University Dr. Ümit Şahin (Editor) – Sabancı University Istanbul Policy Center * The interpretations and conclusions in this report belong solely to the authors and do not reflect IPC’s official position. AUTHORS Sevil Acar (Assoc. Prof. Dr.) is working as a lecturer in the Economics Department of Istanbul Kemerburgaz University. Her main areas of research are environmental and resource economics, particularly natural capital accounting, sustainable development indicators, and the resource curse. Currently she conducts research on fossil fuel subsidies and renewable energy in Turkey in collaboration with the Global Subsidies Initiative (GSI-IISD). [email protected] Ahmet Atıl Aşıcı (Assoc. Prof. Dr.) has been working as an associate professor at the Istanbul Technical University Management Engineering Department since 2009. His main areas of interest include interna- tional economics, economic growth-ecological sustainability relationship, and green economic transforma- tion. [email protected] Pınar Gedikkaya Bal (Assist. Prof. Dr.) has been working at Beykent University International Relations Department. Her main areas of study are the European Union, European integration, climate change poli- cies of the European Union, energy and environmental policies, global climate change regime, low carbon economy, and international political economy. [email protected] Ali Osman Karababa (Prof. Dr.) is a public health specialist and the Head of the Public Health Department in Ege University Faculty of Medicine. He has been acting as the chairman of the Association of Physicians for the Environment (ISDE Turkey). His main fields of study are environmental health, disaster medicine, and occupational health and safety. [email protected] Levent Kurnaz (Prof. Dr.) is an electrical and electronics engineer with a PhD in physics. He has been working as a Professor in the Physics Department of Boğaziçi University and is serving as the Director of Boğaziçi University Climate Change and Policies Implementation and Research Center. He was a 2013/14 Mercator-IPC Fellow as part of the Istanbul Policy Center-Sabancı University-Stiftung Mercator Initiative. [email protected] Ümit Şahin (Dr.) is a medical doctor and has a PhD in public health. His main interests are environmental health and climate policies. He is a Senior Scholar at Sabancı University Istanbul Policy Center in the field of climate change studies. He is the editor of Üç Ekoloji (Three Ecologies) magazine. [email protected] 3 COAL REPORT 4 CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 7 INTRODUCTION 11 PART 1 COAL’S INVOLVEMENT IN TURKEY’S ENERGY AND CLIMATE POLICIES 13 Ümit Şahin 1.1. CLIMATE CHANGE, CARBON BUDGET AND COAL 13 1.2. ENERGY POLICIES AND COAL IN TURKEY 17 1.3. TURKEY’S GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS 23 1.4. INCREASING TENDENCY TOWARDS COAL IN TURKEY 25 1.5. CONCLUSION 28 PART 2 THE ECONOMICS OF COAL MINING IN TURKEY 31 Ahmet Atıl Aşıcı 2.1. COAL MINING IN TURKEY 31 2.2. TRANSFORMATION OF THE ECONOMIC STRUCTURE 33 2.3. CONCLUSION 39 PART 3 COAL INVESTMENTS AND CURRENT SUBSIDIES IN TURKEY 41 Sevil Acar 3.1. COAL INVESTMENTS AND COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS IN TURKEY 41 3.2. COAL SUBSIDIES IN TURKEY 42 3.3. FOSSIL FUEL SUBSIDIES IN OTHER G20 COUNTRIES 46 3.4. ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF COAL SUBSIDIES 47 3.5. CONCLUSION 48 PART 4 INTERNATIONAL AND REGIONAL BARRIERS AGAINST THE USE OF COAL WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO TURKEY’S ACCESSION TO THE EUROPEAN UNION 50 Pınar Gedikkaya Bal 4.1. THE EU’S PLAN FOR A LOW CARBON FUTURE 50 4.2. BARRIERS AGAINST COAL IN THE EU 52 4.3. POSSIBLE BARRIERS AGAINST COAL IN THE INTERNATIONAL ARENA 54 4.4. REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL BARRIERS AGAINST COAL IN TURKEY’S TRANSITION TO A LOW CARBON ECONOMY 56 4.5. CONCLUSION 57 PART 5 COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS AND THEIR IMPACTS ON HEALTH 60 Ali Osman Karababa 5.1. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF COAL 61 5.2. AIR POLLUTION AND HEALTH 66 5.3. HEALTH IMPACTS OF COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS 69 5.4. CONCLUSION 74 PART 6 IS “CLEAN COAL” POSSIBLE? – CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE (CCS) TECHNOLOGIES 77 Levent Kurnaz 6.1. ENERGY AND HEAT GENERATION METHODS 78 6.2. CARBON CAPTURE METHODS 79 6.3. TRANSPORTATION METHODS OF THE CAPTURED CARBON 80 6.4. STORAGE METHODS OF THE CAPTURED CARBON 80 6.5. COST OF CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE 83 6.6. LEGAL DIMENSION OF CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE 84 6.7. CONCLUSION 85 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report addresses the current status of coal in time period. The government, which foresees that Turkey as an energy and greenhouse gas source, Turkey’s energy demand will double by 2023, aims its impacts on health, the association between to meet most of its increased need by building new increasing the share of coal in electricity generation coal-fired power plants. Turkey is ranked fourth in and climate and economic policies, and the discus- the world in regard to constructing new coal-fired sions on “clean coal.” power plants after China, India, and Russia. In addition to the 25 coal-fired power plants in use Coal in Turkey’s Energy and Climate Policies and three new ones under construction, more than Coal, which has a 29% share in the world’s primary 70 new coal-fired power plants with a total installed energy supply, accounts for 40% of global elec- capacity of 66.5 GWs are currently in the pipeline. tricity generation. Coal comprises 44% of global It can be estimated that these planned coal-fired CO2 emissions resulting from fossil fuels and 72% power plants would emit nearly 400 million tons of CO2 emissions resulting from electricity and heat of greenhouse gases annually. Therefore, if these generation. As the energy source that has caused the plans are realized, the emissions of these new plants most greenhouse gas emissions, coal is the primary will be almost be as high as Turkey’s current total cause of climate change. annual emissions, which measured 459 million tons in 2013. We have already emitted two-thirds (1,900 out of 2,900 GtCO2) of the greenhouse gases that can Turkey’s energy strategy aims to “use all existing be released into the atmosphere before the global domestic lignite and hard coal potential for energy temperature increases by 2°C. The potential emis- generation purposes” and “to utilize thermal sions of current fossil fuel reserves are four times power plants based on imported coal, which has higher than the remaining global budget. Therefore, high calorie value, to ensure supply security.” This to keep climate change below 2°C warming, three- approach ignores the contribution that Turkey fourths of fossil fuels and a larger portion of coal should make towards combating global climate reserves should remain underground. change and precludes a meaningful mitigation policy. The share of coal, oil, and gas in Turkey’s primary energy supply was 88% in 2013. Almost more than Coal Mining in the Turkish Economy 70% of electricity is produced from fossil fuels. Total installed capacity is 71 GW, 20.5% of this The share of coal mining in the total production of coming from coal-fired power plants. The installed the Turkish economy is below 1%, and its contribu- capacity of coal-fired power plants has increased by tion to growth rates is very low. The employment 77% when compared to 2004. rate in the sector is also low, and its share in total employment decreased from 1.3% in 1998 to 0.7% in Turkey, in which greenhouse gas emissions 2013. Therefore, the reason for the recent increase increased 110% in 2013 when compared to 1990, is in incentives provided to the coal sector is the among the top 20 emitters in the world. The share of carbon-intensive economic growth pathway of the coal in its total emissions is approximately 33%, and Turkish economy, which stimulates the economy coal emissions have increased by 130% during this via carbon-intensive energy generation rather than 7 COAL REPORT increasing economic growth rates or creating jobs provided to the fossil fuel sector such as support directly in coal mining.