ISSN 0111-1736
Meteorological Society
Of New Zealand (Inc.)
NEWSLETTER 92
MARCH 2003 Meteorological Society Of New Zealand (Inc.) NEWSLETTER 92 MARCH 2003 PO Box 6523, Te Aro, Wellington, New Zealand Deadline for input to next issue mid June 2003 Please forward contributions to Bob McDavitt, C/- PO Box 68429, Newton, Auckland or [email protected]
CONTENTS Page President’s Comments 1 Branch reports 2 Notices 3 Conferences 4 NIWA seasonal summary for Spring 9 Notable recent weather (Trevor) 15 Christchurch weather (Ben) 22 Meteorology in the Press 23 Puzzle (Bob) 46 Your Committee (2002-2003) President Richard Turner [email protected] Immediate Past President Jim Renwick [email protected] Auckland VP Kim Dirks [email protected] Wellington VP vacant Christchurch VP Peyman Zawar-Reza [email protected] Dunedin VP Blair Fitzharris [email protected] Secretary Frank Drost [email protected] Treasurer Cliff Revell [email protected] Circulation Manager Andrew Tait [email protected] Journal Editor Howard Larsen [email protected] Newsletter Editor Bob McDavitt [email protected] General Committee Don Thompson, [email protected] Warren Gray. [email protected] Haibo Liu [email protected] Charles Pearson [email protected]
The views and endorsements expressed in this newsletter are those of the contributors and advertisers, and not necessarily those of the Meteorological Society of New Zealand. The mention of specific companies or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by the society. Meteorological Society of New Zealand Autumn 2003 Newsletter – page 1
President’s Note, Autumn 2003
Hullo, from a very busy week at the American Meteorological Society's 7th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography being held at Te Papa. And what a wonderful week of weather the capital1 and the country have turned on for our overseas visitors. I think the conference can be judged a success in spite of the external factors such as the war in Iraq, SARS, terrorist threats, and Airline Bankruptcy's, which have conspired to keep the number of attendees down. The organizing committee (from which our own society contributed several members) deserve special thanks for their efforts in producing a rich, varied, and interesting program of talks and activities under these difficult circumstances, well done! Now, you may think I'm just spouting off the obligatory clichés when I say the conference was a success, but I am being most sincere. For me the measures of a conference's success are (a) did meeting with colleagues provide me (and hopefully them) ideas to test out? (b) was my enthusiasm for my research and meteorology renewed? (c) did I get useful feedback about my research? and (d) did I get to renew old acquaintances and meet new people, and (e) was it value for money? For me personally, the answer was yes to all of these. I'm not sure I can honestly say that about all the conferences I've ever been too.
Other matters that I can bring to your attention are as follows. It seems likely, but cannot be confirmed at this stage, that our annual conference will be held in November in Christchurch. In 2004 our annual conference will be hosted by the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, it will be held in Brisbane in July, hopefully we will get a good contingent from NZ to cross the ditch. The Society's main committee has appointed a sub-committee to evaluate the future of our journal "Weather and Climate". Issues they will examine are (i) the structure of the editorial panel, (ii) the format of the Journal, and (iii) the target audience and aims of the Journal. If you have any thoughts you would like to contribute as to the future direction of Weather and Climate, send them to me and I can pass them on to the sub-committee. If you have thoughts on any other matters concerning the Society please also feel free to contact me. Richard Turner 1 - Warm, sunny, and light winds for about 14 days in a row! Fantastic! It's true what they say "You can't even beat Wellington with a stick on a good day". Now if we could just start to get some decent rain for the gardeners, the farmers, and the hydro lakes. Meteorological Society of New Zealand Autumn 2003 Newsletter – page 2
Regional Reports. Auckland – Kim Dirks On Sunday, March 23rd, World Met Day, the Auckland Branch held their annual BBQ, an opportunity to get together and discuss ideas for meetings for the year.
Wairarapa Weather Watchers (Alex Neale) Wairarapa Weather Watchers held their first meeting for 2003 on Monday 24 February, attended by about twenty members. The evening's main topic was 'Phenology'. Some members had looked up the dictionary prior to the meeting, others came to be enlightened. Matters touched on included the fact that early numbers of the Royal Meteorological Society Quarterly (in the mid 1800s) often featured phenology; the influence of weather on migratory birds, and the weather's influence of garden pests, both insect and fungal. Current membership has reached 43 with the addition of a new member this meeting.
Christchurch "Recent observations and modelling of the transport of pollution from Eurasia to North America" given by Dr Ian McKendry from the University of British Columbia on Thursday April 3. A talk is being planned in May by Dr Ha Pe Schmid from Indiana University. The topic and date will be confirmed soon. Ha Pe is a specialist on forest- atmosphere exchanges and has experience of sites in North America as well as the Amazon.
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Autumn 2003 Newsletter – page 3
To members of Meteorological Society.
John Lumsden as NZ's permanent representative to the WMO is seeking views and comments on documents that will be discussed at the XIV WMO congress in May. He would like any input from us to be back to him by April 25. I suggest that if you have any comments that you pass them back to me by the 20th of April and then I can compile the response into one coherent piece and then pass these on.
The WMO documents can be downloaded from ftp://www.wmo.ch/Documents/sessions/Cg-XIV/English/. You then have a choice of a PDF or WORD subdirectory. Document 1-3(2) is the best to read for it gives a list of topics by number, an overview of the areas that will discussed at the Congress.
I look forward to any feedback that can be provided. Sincerely Richard, President Meteorological Society of New Zealand (Inc)
For those of you with Internet access – try out the latest NZ WEATHER FORUM at http://www.templeton.gen.nz/forum/ (click on NZ Weather for a list of the topics). Anyone can read the comments, but you will need to register if you wish to contribute. Some wonderful discussions are taking place.
BUYS BALLOT MEDAL--CALL FOR NOMINATIONS Every ten years the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences (KNAW) awards the Buys Ballot Medal. With this golden medal the Academy rewards outstanding contributions to the field of meteorology. In 2004 the Buys Ballot Medal will be awarded for the twelfth time. Selection of candidates will be based on nominations received from the scientific community throughout the world. These nominations will be considered by a Jury established by the Science Division of the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences. The Jury welcomes nominations postmarked before 1 June 2003. Candidates should be scientists whose achievements in the field of meteorology are outstanding and have been a source of inspiration to others. The award will be presented to an individual. The laureate of the twelfth Buys Ballot Medal will be invited to the Netherlands to receive the award in person. Specific information concerning the nominations:- institutions or individuals are invited to nominate candidates- self-nominations are not accepted- candidates should not be informed of their nominations- nominations should be submitted in writing, accompanied by material that will facilitate the Jury's evaluation, i.e. a curriculum vitae, a description of the work deserving recognition, a list of the candidate's publications, and one or two key publications of the candidate. To request Nomination forms, please email: [email protected] Nominations (air) mailed and postmarked before 1 June 2003 should be sent to: Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences Jury Buys Ballot Medal P.O. Box 191211000 GC, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Media Award 2002. A note from the judges for the TV weather presentation awards as summarised in the last newsletter: It has been pointed out that the judging panel's comments on individuals should be regarded as privileged information and should only be divulged when the appropriate personal permission has been granted. We ask all Society members to respect this point and NOT to spread these comments outside the Society unless they have written permission. Meteorological Society of New Zealand Autumn 2003 Newsletter – page 4
CONFERENCES The "6th International Symposium on Hydrological Applications of Weather Radar" will be held in Melbourne, February 1-4, 2004. Information about this conference can be found at: www.bom.gov.au/announcements/conferences/hawr2004 . For more information, contact [email protected]
The next AMOS (Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society) annual conference is planned to be in Brisbane in 2004. The conference "theme" will be storms and the NZ Meteorological Society committee has accepted the invitation to be a co-host. It is intended that the meeting’s scope include the following: - Storms of the global atmosphere/hydrosphere on all scales; including thunderstorms, tropical cyclones, hybrid and extra tropical storms; - Meteorology and physical oceanography of storms, including their description, dynamics, forecasting, storm surges and waves, climatology and climate change aspects; - Storm hydrology including rainfall, runoff and flooding; impacts of storms including risk assessment and responses. The format of the meeting has yet to be decided. Watch the AMOS website (or next Met Soc. newsletter) for developments.
Another upcoming meeting: 2004 Western Pacific Geophysics Meeting - 16-20 August 2004, Honolulu, Hawaii
The 7th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography (By Frank Drost)
The Seventh International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography (7icshmo) was being held from 24-28 March, at Te Papa, Wellington. The presentations were given in two rooms, the sounding theatre, and the Rangimarie 1. The registration was in a separate area, directly behind the exposition of the Harley Davidson that was being held at the same time. Whenever you had to go to the registration area, which was also the area for the morning and afternoon teas, as well as the area for the posters, you were “welcomed” with the growling noise of some Harley Davidson. Not quite thunder yet, but quite an “entry”.
As the title of the conference indicate, the topics discussed were related to the Southern Hemisphere, and therefore the majority of the attendees came from countries from the Southern Hemisphere. Of course the bulk came from Australia and New Zealand, but quite a few researchers came from South America and Southern Africa as well.
In general, the conference had four sessions during the day. There were two sessions in the morning, and two in the afternoon, and these sessions were separated by morning and afternoon tea respectively. The session after the morning tea, and the first one after lunch were preceded by a plenary talk Meteorological Society of New Zealand Autumn 2003 Newsletter – page 5 given by an invited speaker. In total there were sixteen sessions where the topics covered ranged from regional to tropical-extratropical issues, from atmosphere to oceans, from physics to chemistry, and from short-term to long-term to very long-term climate variations.
About 180 participants had to choose which sessions they wanted to attend (there were always two sessions going at the same time), check out 23 posters and exchanged ideas and information during the social events like the conference dinner and the conference fieldtrip (to the Wairarapa). It’s therefore impossible to summarise all the events, experiences and knowledge gained in just a few paragraphs. So, I just have to restrict this summary of the conference to my own experiences.
The atmospheric talks I went to during the first two days all had similar themes in common. Blocking highs near New Zealand, dipole patterns over the South-West Atlantic, Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), and the effects of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) were being discussed together with features of the pacific wave number 3 wave train and baroclinic storms. Inevitably, El Nino patterns and their influence and effects on these particular phenomena showed up in many of these talks.
Kevin Trenberth (NCAR, USA) gave the first plenary talk: “Heat budgets and poleward atmospheric energy transports”. In this, Kevin explained the “smooth” transition from the large overturning regime in the tropics (the Hadley circulation) to the regime of the baroclinic eddies in the extratropics. He concluded that the extent of the Hadley circulation is mainly driven from the subtropics through cooling by transient baroclinic waves in the storm tracks in the midlatitudes. That evening, Kevin presented also a public talk in which he discussed the importance of moisture in climate variability and climate change.
I found myself attending several talks about the climatology of South America. Since I am not familiar at all with the issues over there, I was kind of surprised to find out that many findings were similar to results that we find in the Pacific. This should not have come as a surprise at all of course, because phenomena like El Nino and the MJO have their influence on South America as well. But it was the first time for me to actually hear and see what those influences are on another part of the world. One of the local issues in South America is the changing and variable effect of the Amazon on South America’s climate. Deforestation seems to have a notable effect on regional climates in South America, most notably through their influence on precipitation patterns. Changes in precipitation patterns in South America were often raised by several speakers. Precipitation changes/variability was also discussed with respect to the season, the influence of the Andes, the Atlantic dipole, SST’s and El Nino’s. The plenary talk given by Carlos Nobre (CPTEC, Brazil) about the “biosphere-atmospheric interaction in Amazonia” was a good introduction to some of the topics in climatology in South America.
Stephen Rintoul (ACRC, Tasmania) started for me the talks about oceanography. His plenary talk about “Interannual variability in the Australian sector of the Southern Ocean: Observations and Dynamical Implications” looked mainly at the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). After this, the talks shifted a bit towards the climatology of Antarctica and the importance and the effect of its sea-ice on the climatology of the Southern Hemisphere. Meteorological Society of New Zealand Autumn 2003 Newsletter – page 6
Neil Gordon of MetService listening in on Neville Nicholls, Carsten Frederiksen et al talking about predictability (probably!)
On Wednesday morning there was a talk about the International Perlan Project. This project is known to most people as the project where the billionaire “balloonist” Steve Fossett is trying to set a world record by “flying” a glider high into the stratosphere. His efforts, and not so much the team’s efforts, were often in the news in the winter of 2002, when he tried to achieve this near Omarama in the McKenzie Country. This talk was luckily much more about the scientific background and achievements of this project, then the one-sided news reports we usually got to see and which were centred on the person Steve Fossett. As a result of this talk, I for one have now come to believe that this is a real scientific challenge instead of just being a pet project for a playful billionaire.
Dean Roemmich (SIO/Univ. of California, USA) had a very interesting plenary talk in which he presented the latest updates about the ARGO project. “ARGO is a global array of 3,000 free-drifting profiling floats that will measure the temperature and salinity of the upper 2000 m of the ocean. This will allow continuous monitoring of the climate state of the ocean, with all data being relayed and made publicly available within hours after collection” (from its website http://www-argo.ucsd.edu/). Niwa New Zealand is involved with this project in that Niwa will deploy the buoys in New Zealand’s region. Some 700 buoys have been deployed now, so there is still a while to go.
Wednesday noon saw the start of the Africa sessions. Just like with the South American talks, I was unaware of the issues that are of importance to Meteorological Society of New Zealand Autumn 2003 Newsletter – page 7 climatology in Southern Africa. The main attraction for me about these talks was the fact that many of them included climate modelling, which is a topic that keeps me busy. Therefore I was interested to see the results of the validity and accuracy of their climate models, especially since they used similar models as we do at Niwa (the UM model from the UKMO). In general they were also able to say that their model was capable to model the climatic features accurately, but that there was always room for improvement. Of particular interest to me was Chris Jack’s (Univ. of Cape Town, South Africa) talk that presented a regional model for South Africa with a horizontal resolution of 50km and 40 vertical levels. We at Niwa are trying to create a regional model for New Zealand, with a similar horizontal resolution, but with less levels in the vertical.
Both Thursday and Friday were only morning sessions. Thursday afternoon was for the fieldtrip, and the conference finished Friday noon. One of the sessions on Thursday morning was for the chemists. I however choose the other session about “Tropical-Extratropical Interactions and Teleconnections over the Southern Hemisphere II”. This was a very highly variable session where it was hard to find something in common between the topics. One of the talks even informed us about some historical facts of Kublai Khan.
Thursday afternoon was particular good for students to socialize among each other. Since there was no official program, a group of about 12 students got together in the afternoon and decided to do their own “fieldtrip” by exploring the Rimutaka Forest. Although at first this might not seem relevant to a conference, it was extremely useful to meet fellow students and discuss topics that are of relevance to students. I myself made some good contacts with my fellow students in Melbourne and Sao Paulo.
Friday morning had for me by the far the most interesting sessions. The first session dealt with very long-term climate variations, from interdecadal variations to paleoclimates. I was particular interested in my counterpart in studying the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in these parts of the world, to see what her ideas where about the general circulation in the Australia-New Zealand region. I was happy to find out that we had similar ideas. The LGM was of course characterized by a much colder climate, but the implications of this colder climate are not fully known yet. Issues like how much cooling there was, especially in the tropics, are still not fully answered. A reduction in temperatures in the Western Pacific, together with a warming, or a less cooling in the Eastern Pacific, can lead to a more El Nino kind of wind regime in New Zealand’s region. Pandora Hope (Univ. of Melbourne, Australia) also showed that there might be a 50C southward shift of the main westerly flow south of Australia. This southward shift would have consequences for New Zealand’s climate during the LGM as well.
The conference was closed by David Karoly (Monash University, Australia) who was the sole attendant at the conference who had also participated at all the other previous six conferences. The next conference, the 8icshmo, will most likely be held in Brazil again, in the year 2006.
I would like to thank the New Zealand Meteorological Society for supporting me in attending this conference. It’s important that students can present themselves and their work at these international meetings. For New Zealand being a small country, it’s not always (financially) possible to travel around the world to attend these bigger conferences. Meteorological Society of New Zealand Autumn 2003 Newsletter – page 8
Some critical comments about PowerPoint presentations. Although I have been at meetings and at conferences where the following experience was more severe, I would like to write this critical note of presenting a talk in general. This story should purely be read as a satirical comment and is in no way meant to downgrade the great talks and presentations that were being given at the conference. I have enjoyed and learned a lot!
A few decennia ago, the only means to a presenter at a conference to aid him with his presentation, was perhaps a blackboard, a lot of hand waving in the air - trying somehow to visualize his point -, or, when appropriate, show a physical model that was built to scale, which was then often passed around the audience in order for them to have a better look at it.
With technology developing, presenters got to use slide projectors and overhead projectors. These technical aides helped the presenter tremendously in presenting his talk and to illustrate outputs. Instead of some scribbles on a blackboard, we had now clear and legible writing. Drawings were more colourful, and since they were created before the conference, instead of just being drawn quickly on a blackboard, they were more accurate. For instance, drawings of New Zealand looked like New Zealand, instead of the abstract squiggles you had before. If you had missed the speaker saying that these drawings represented the two main islands of New Zealand, you were often convinced that the speaker had drawn a banana and a jellybean, or a leaf and a twig, or a footprint of a three-toed animal, sliding and standing. Later on, computer generated graphs were also being used. Their accuracy and ability to show great details again increased the clearness of the talk. The proper use of these tools enabled the audience to better understand the speaker’s story.
Now that all has changed with the latest technology; computers and the use of PowerPoint.
The presenter has now virtually an infinite number of ways to make the most amazing dazzling images. Not only do we get to see those fantastic clear computer generated images, we also get to see many more of them. Images with a kaleidoscope of pictures, spaghetti plates full of wiggles, and an enormous amount of text. Text that is squeezed in every corner of the slide that is not already occupied with something else, and reduced to a font size that if you were sitting in the front row of the conference with a pair of binoculars, you still could not read it. All this flashes before you with the only comments like “as you all can see”, or “as you all already know”. It’s then that I either feel like a complete idiot and become convinced that I have absolutely no reason to be here at the conference, ‘cause I obviously have no idea what I am supposed to see, or what I am suppose to know already, or make me start cleaning my glasses vigorously ‘cause the “blur” that I see is obviously caused by my dirty glasses. My glasses obviously did not enable me to focus properly on the image. However, if it was the first case, it takes me a whole session to realize that I might as well have gone to a museum of abstract art. I always fail to see the significance of abstract art as well. If it were my glasses, by the time that I have cleaned my glasses and have them put back on, I notice that the yellow spot on the left is now green, the text at the bottom of the image is now on the right, and that somehow somebody had put even more spaghetti on the image. It often only takes me a fraction of a second then to realize that I was too late with putting my glasses back on and that the next slide is already up. Not that that realization reassures me, because I immediately panic and wonder how many slides I have missed in the time that I was cleaning my glasses.
The amount of information that is on one slide alone, equals the total amount of information presented at a conference just a few decennia ago. What took several sessions for several presenters to show a few years ago, can now all be shown with pressing one button. It seems that the technical tools of nowadays are not there to help the audience to understand what the speaker is trying to convey, but solely for the presenter to show off his all important work by cramping as much information in his talk as possible. A good talk seems to be one that includes the most information. Although one can argue strongly about what kind of information that now is.
Instead of leaving a conference with the feeling that you have learned something new, one often leaves the conference completely drained, stupefied and bewildered. The amount of information was too much to absorb. The inevitable gap in your memory of a particular part of a talk makes the whole talk incomprehensible and makes you wonder what it now was all about.
Granted, some presentations were very colourful, and were a “lust for the eye” to look at, so that you remained entertained and did not fall asleep. But I thought that in this context it was thought provoking and satirical that our public talk was advertised in the paper under “entertainment”, and not under “educational”. Did the news guys know something I didn’t?
Frank Drost, fresh from the conference. Meteorological Society of New Zealand Autumn 2003 Newsletter – page 9
Climate Summary for Summer 2002–03 Sunny with significant soil-moisture deficits in many regions Average or below average rainfall in most regions Above average rainfall in some northeastern parts of the North Island Coolest summer overall since 1996/97 Summer commenced with a windier than normal December, followed by generally sunny, but cooler and much drier than average conditions during January and February. Significant soil- moisture deficits occurred throughout the summer in much of the eastern South Island, spreading to much of the North Island from January onwards. Extreme fire risk also developed in many areas.
Sunshine hours were above average in most regions, especially from Marlborough to Otago, with Christchurch recording its sunniest summer in over 50 years. Sunshine was near average in Northland, Auckland, and Waikato. Rainfall was about 50 percent (half) of normal in parts of central Hawke’s Bay, and Horowhenua. It was also drier than average in Taranaki, eastern Bay of Plenty, Taupo, Kapiti, Nelson, and in many eastern south Island areas from Kaikoura to Central Otago. In contrast, rainfall was above normal in parts of Thames, Coromandel, Gisborne, and eastern Northland, mainly due to significant heavy rainfall and, in some areas, flood-producing events at the start of January and at the end of February.
Temperatures were average or below average. For the season overall the national average temperature of 16.2°C was 0.4°C below normal, the lowest for summer since 1996/97.
Other features of the summer were unseasonable snow at the Homer Tunnel on Boxing Day, and unseasonable early frosts, extreme in some areas for February, occurring in inland and eastern regions between 20 and 23 February.
The Pacific El Niño event, although weakening, had some effect on the New Zealand summer climate pattern. Anticyclones (‘highs’) were more frequent than average in the Tasman Sea and well east of the Chatham Islands, keeping pressures a little higher than average over New Zealand. More frequent westerly winds occurred south of the country in the Southern Oceans. Sunny in most regions Sunshine and solar radiation totals were near average in Northland, Auckland, and Waikato, but at least 110 percent of average in most other regions. It was very sunny in the east, especially from Marlborough to Otago.
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Autumn 2003 Newsletter – page 10
Well above average summer sunshine hours were recorded at: Summer sunshine Percentage of Year records Location Comments (hours) average began Christchurch 801 126 1949 Highest Airport Dunedin, Well above 604 121 1948 Musselburgh average Record high summer solar radiation was recorded at: Summer solar radiation Location Percentage of average Year records began Comments (MJ m–2 / day) Blenheim 24.7 113 1992 Highest Airport
Average or below average rainfall in most regions Rainfall was about 50 percent (half) of normal in parts of central Hawke’s Bay, and Horowhenua. It was also drier than average in Taranaki, eastern Bay of Plenty, Taupo, Kapiti, Nelson, and in many eastern South Island areas from Kaikoura to Central Otago, with rainfall less than 75 percent (three quarters) of normal. Well below average summer rainfall was recorded at: Location Summer rainfall (mm) Percentage of normal Napier Airport 88 48 Levin 113 45
Above average rainfall in some northeastern parts of the North Island Rainfall was at least 125 percent (one and a quarter) of normal in parts of eastern Northland, Thames, Coromandel, and Gisborne. Near record high summer rainfall was recorded at:
Summer rainfall Percentage of Year records Location Comments (mm) normal began Whitianga 507 162 1991 2nd highest Airport Paeroa 622 228 1914 Highest Well above Hicks Bay 410 166 1991 average
Near or below average temperatures everywhere Mean temperatures ranged from average to 0.4°C below average in most regions, and were 0.5 to 0.9°C below average throughout much of Northland, Auckland, King Country, north Westland, and Central Otago. Highlights Extreme temperatures • The highest air temperature for the season was 36.5°C, recorded at Darfield on 31 December; the highest December air temperature on record there since records began in 1939. Meteorological Society of New Zealand Autumn 2003 Newsletter – page 11
• The lowest air temperature for the summer was –3.0°C, recorded at The Chateau, Mt Ruapehu on 15 January. High rainfall • High rainfall, totalling 100 to 200 mm was recorded throughout eastern Northland, Coromandel, Waikato, and Bay of Plenty between 4 and 10 January. The wettest days were the 8th and 9th, when many locations recorded between 60 and 120 mm. The rainfall was also accompanied by wind and resulted in surface flooding in these regions, especially on the Coromandel, creating washouts in holiday parks, disrupting the plans of many campers.
• Further high rainfall occurred in eastern Northland, Coromandel, and Gisborne toward the end of February, and some houses in Paeroa were evacuated due to flooding on the 27th. Some rainfall totals were:
Location Rainfall total (mm) Date of occurrence Whangarei Airport 65.6 25 Feb Whitianga Airport 123.4 25–26 Feb Paeroa 279.8 26–27 Feb Hicks Bay 191.0 26–27 Feb Persistent fog • Wellington Airport was closed due to fog at times from 2 through 4 December as warm humid easterly airflow was cooled over cold water through Cook Strait, resulting in aircraft delays for thousands of passengers. Unseasonable snowfall • Snow lay at the Homer Tunnel on Boxing Day, with skiing still possible then at Whakapapa in the North Island. For further information, please contact: Dr Jim Salinger – NIWA, Auckland Phone +64 9 375 2053 [email protected] or Stuart Burgess – NIWA, Wellington. Phone +64 4 386 0569 [email protected] Acknowledgement of NIWA as the source is required. © Copyright 2003 by NIWA Colour graphics of monthly and seasonal rain and temperature countrywide anomalies are kept at http://www.niwa.cri.nz/ncc/current.html as a PDF file. These maps do not convert well enough into “shades of gray” for us to bring them here, so, instead, we give the MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS over the next pages.
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Autumn 2003 Newsletter – page 12
DECEMBER 2002 CLIMATE HIGHLIGHTS ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL IN THE NORTHERN SOUTH ISLAND AND MANY WESTERN REGIONS
SUNNY WITH BELOW AVERAGE RAINFALL IN MANY EASTERN REGIONS
NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MOST
Significant soil moisture deficits
Significant soil moisture deficits
Cloudy, with above average rainfall
Above average rainfall Dry and sunny, with above average temperatures
Significant thunderstorms on the 8th
Very sunny Unseasonable snowfall on the 26th
Sunny Wet, with below average temperatures Meteorological Society of New Zealand Autumn 2003 Newsletter – page 13
JANUARY 2003 CLIMATE HIGHLIGHTS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL IN EASTERN NORTHLAND AND COROMANDEL
DRY OVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE COUNTRY WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
SUNNIER IN THE WEST OF THE SOUTH ISLAND, CANTERBURY AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ISLAND
High rainfall
Cool Low soil moisture
Low rainfall
Sunny
Low soil moisture Sunny
Sunny
Low soil moisture Cool Meteorological Society of New Zealand Autumn 2003 Newsletter – page 14
FEBRUARY 2003 CLIMATE HIGHLIGHTS BELOW AVERAGE RAINFALL IN NELSON, AND MANY NORTH ISLAND AREAS
SIGNIFICANT SOIL MOISTURE DEFICITS AFFECT MANY REGIONS
HIGH END OF MONTH RAINFALL IN EASTERN NORTHLAND, COROMANDEL, AND EASTLAND
SUNNY AND RELATIVELY COOL IN MOST REGIONS Heavy rainfall in eastern Northland, Coromandel, UNSEASONABLY EARLY FROSTS and Eastland over 25-27 February - flooding in Paeroa
Well below average rainfall with significant soil moisture deficits Rather sunny in Hawke's Bay Damaging frosts in Hawke's Bay Rather cool on 22 February
Significant soil moisture deficits
Unseasonably frosty over 20-23 February
Rather cool Extremely sunny Significant soil from Marlborough moisture deficits to Southland Meteorological Society of New Zealand Autumn 2003 Newsletter – page 15
Notable Recent Weather By Trevor McGavin, MetService of N.Z. Ltd.
Summer 2003 was notable for a number of unusually cold spells of weather, but also for a welcome period of settled weather coinciding with New Year holidays. Lack of rain in central districts meant worsening drought conditions there. Two stormy events are covered in detail here - a period of damaging westerly gales over central and southern districts in December, and easterly rainstorms over the northeast of the North Island at the end of February.
Thanks to Ben Tichborne and Bob McDavitt for their contributions to this article.
Summary of Events
2-4 December. Fog and low cloud closes Wellington Airport from evening 2nd, through most of 3rd then clears late morning on 4th. Afternoon/evening thunderstorms over central high country of both islands, especially in Central Otago. Warm in Alexandra with highs of 29°C on 3rd and 4th.
6 December. Warm in eastern parts, especially Canterbury with highs of 30°C in Ashburton and Geraldine. Heavy, thundery rain in Auckland.
7-8 December. Heavy rain and thunderstorms in northern and western North Island, also northern South Island, causes flash flooding in a number of places, notably Auckland (afternoon/evening 7th), Wellington (afternoon 7th, early morning 8th), Blenheim (afternoon 7th) and Christchurch (morning 8th). However, the rain is welcomed by farmers in drought-stricken Marlborough. Unusually cool with highs of only 13°C in Dunedin and Christchurch, and fresh snow on alpine areas (8th).
10-15 December. Gales in central and southern areas; cold snap in south. See details following.
18-19 December. Heavy downpours in the North Island, notably central and northern parts. Wet weather in Hamilton prevents play in the 2nd cricket test NZ vs. India (19th).
22-23 December. Heavy rain in Fiordland; over 100mm in 24 hours. Warm in Canterbury with highs around 28°C, but Timaru drops to 16°C with a southerly change (23rd). Northwesterlies gust over 140 km/hr at Castlepoint in the Wairarapa.
25 December. Christmas day is warm in eastern places, notably Canterbury with temperatures reaching high 20’s. Wet in western districts, especially from Taranaki to Wellington with heavy rain in the Tararua Ranges, also Fiordland. Skiing still happening at Whakapapa on Mt Ruapehu.
26 December. Cold snap over South Island with fresh snow on the mountains. Snow falls at Homer Tunnel and Milford records a high of just 11°C (contrasts with 29°C in Napier). Thunder and hailstorms in many South Island places, notably Christchurch late afternoon. West or southwest gales in Southland, Otago and Canterbury; fallen trees close State Highway 1 in Dunedin.
27 December. Morning frosts in sheltered parts of South Island, eg. –2°C in Fairlie.
30 December – 7 January. A warm settled spell, especially for central and eastern districts where temperatures reach high 20’s or low 30’s. During this period Darfield in Canterbury records the highest Meteorological Society of New Zealand Autumn 2003 Newsletter – page 16 temperature this summer of 36.5°C on 31 December. Alexandra reaches 33°C on New Years Day, and Masterton is 32°C on 3 January.
8 January. Heavy rain in Northland with around 60-70mm in 24 hours in places. Easterly gales in northern districts; teenage yachties rescued off Murray’s Bay Beach in Auckland after winds gust over 93 km/hr. A man is lost from capsized fishing boat in Hauraki Gulf. Another man from same boat is lucky to survive after being washed ashore onto a patrolled beach 24 hours later. Meanwhile, heatwave continues in central South Island with Alexandra reaching 33°C and Queenstown 27°C (contrasting with 18-19°C highs in Northland).
9 January. Heavy rain on Coromandel Peninsula and in Bay of Plenty, eg. over 70mm at Paeroa in 24 hours. Alexandra reaches 33°C again.
10 January. Heavy rain in many northern districts, notably Coromandel Peninsula with over 200mm in 24 hours in places – causes flooding and road closures. Hamilton records around 90mm in 24 hours. Sewerage overflow problems in North Auckland. Warm in southwest of North Island (highs 25-30°C) with foehn northeasterlies.
12 January. Welcome rain in drought-stricken Canterbury and Marlborough. Unusually cold in Canterbury with maximums in low-teens, eg. Ashburton 12°C, and fresh snow on the Alps. Thunderstorms in Nelson and eastern parts of the North Island.
14 January. Unusually cold in eastern districts with highs in low-teens in some places. Hail showers in eastern North Island and Wellington. Morning frosts in central North Island, eg. Waiouru -1°C.
15 January. Lowest temperature for summer of –3°C is recorded at The Chateau (Mt Ruapehu). A cold morning at Taupo as well, only 1°C.
19-20 January. Strong northwest flow over central New Zealand brings gales in Wellington, and gusts to 146 km/hr at Castlepoint in the Wairarapa. Warm in east, especially Canterbury, eg Christchurch 29°C (19th).
20 January. A reddish sky colour in Northland and Auckland is blamed on smoke particles travelling at high levels from large bush-fires in New South Wales and Queensland (which began around 18 January). Warm again in east, notably Canterbury, eg. 29°C in Timaru.
21 January. Warm in east of North Island and Bay of Plenty, eg. 30°C in Kawerau, 29°C in Whakatane.
22 January. Northwest gales about central districts. Very warm in east, notably Canterbury, eg. 31°C in Christchurch and 30°C in Timaru.
23 January. Cold in south with fresh snow on mountains near Queenstown. A high of just 12°C in Invercargill.
24 January. Cold southerly change moves up east coast of South Island accompanied by thunder and hailstorms (notably in Christchurch). A man is knocked unconscious for 10 minutes after being struck by lightning at Pines Beach, North Canterbury. In Kaikoura the temperature falls from 19°C to 12°C in 2 hours with the change in the afternoon.
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Autumn 2003 Newsletter – page 17
25 January. Unseasonably cold over south and east of South Island with maximums in low-teens, eg. Gore has a high of just 11°C. Fresh snowfalls on Tararua Ranges and Mt Ruapehu. Thunder and hailstorms in some North Island districts.
26 January. Morning frosts in central North Island, eg. -1°C at Waiouru.
27 January. Another cold southerly change over South Island. In Christchurch the temperature drops from 23°C to 15°C in 1 hour late morning with the change. In the north, strong winds capsize a number of boats in Auckland’s Anniversary day regatta. In Wellington, “brown rain” is reported, blamed on Australian bush-fires.
28 January. A few thunderstorms in Fiordland due to a disturbed westerly flow. High of only 12°C at Milford Sound.
31 January. Northwesterlies up to gale force in east of South Island, also Wellington and Wairarapa. Grass-fires fanned by the wind in Canterbury - a pig farm is destroyed near Christchurch. Very warm in east due to foehn conditions, notably in Canterbury and Hawkes Bay where highs reach the low 30’s, eg. 33°C in Napier.
1 February. Very warm northwesterlies in east of North Island, eg. 34°C in Hastings, 33°C in Napier.
2 February. Big grass-fire near Christchurch threatens Orana Wildlife Park but a late afternoon wind change (from southerly to northeast) saves it.
3 February. A few afternoon thunderstorms over Bay of Plenty, Taupo and Gisborne ranges; a high of 29°C in Kawerau.
4 February. Warm again in Bay of Plenty (30°C in Kawerau), but highs of only 14-16°C in east of South Island due to a cool southerly flow.
6 February. Warm in some eastern places, eg. 31°C in Alexandra, 29°C in Blenheim. In Masterton, a cold start of just 6°C but rises to 28°C by day.
7-8 February. Warm again in inland and eastern places, including 33°C in Temuka (8th).
10 February. Warm in Wairarapa and Wellington regions with highs 25-30°C.
11 February. Very warm in Canterbury, eg. 33°C in Christchurch, 32°C in Timaru. In North Canterbury a scrub fire is fanned by gusty northwesterlies. Big drop in temperature in Invercargill and Dunedin with a southerly change.
12 February. Warm in central North Island, eg. 30°C in Tokoroa. “Tar-melting weather” in Taumarunui.
13 February. Very warm in Canterbury with temperatures in low 30’s in some places, eg. Amberley 32°C. Blenheim and Masterton each reach 29°C. Gusty northwesterlies fan a fire in Canterbury (between Ashburton and Christchurch).
14 February. Cold southerly change up east coast drops temperatures dramatically and brings welcome rain. Dunedin’s high is just 12°C. Meteorological Society of New Zealand Autumn 2003 Newsletter – page 18
16 February. A cold start for Taupo of 2°C but rises to mid-20’s by day. Warm inland South Island, eg. 30°C at Hanmer Springs.
18 February. Gale force northwesterlies in Wellington with gusts to 110 km/hr at Kelburn; trees blown down damaging cars. High temperatures in some eastern places, eg. 31°C at Kaikoura.
19 February. Cold southerly change in south; high of only 12°C in Queenstown. In Timaru the temperature drops from 18 to 12°C in 1 hour with the change, while in Hokitika a tornado is reported in the evening. Northwesterly gales again in Wellington.
20-23 February. Unusually cold in many places. On 20th, snow falls on the Milford Road and there’s a high of just 7°C at Milford. On 21st, Queenstown reaches only 8°C and Wellington 12°C. Snow showers fall to 500m in Canterbury. Unseasonable frosts on morning 22nd damage crops in Hawkes Bay. Minimums include –3°C at Waiouru and 1°C at Palmerston North, while Paraparaumu records its lowest ever February temperature of 3°C. Meanwhile, highs of just 12-13°C in south of South Island. On 23rd, Masterton rises from a cold 2°C to reach 24°C in afternoon.
25-28 February. Heavy rain brings floods to northern districts. See details following.
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Gales in central and southern areas; Cold snap in south 10-15 December 2002
Westerly quarter winds reached gale force in central and southern districts mid-December causing damage and disruption.
On 10 December a moist northwest flow brought heavy rain and thunderstorms to the West Coast. Meanwhile, foehn northwesterlies produced high temperatures in the east from Canterbury northwards (eg. 27°C in Lyttelton and Napier).
Northwesterly winds reached gale force in Wellington and Wairarapa overnight 11-12 December causing damage and making driving dangerous on the Rimutaka Hill Road. Winds gusted to 137 km/hr at Castlepoint in the Wairarapa. Meanwhile, thundery rain continued on the West Coast, especially in Fiordland.
On 13 December, northwesterly gales hit many places, especially in the east and about Wellington. In the Napier/Hastings areas, trees were downed as a “squally front” passed by in the morning. The temperature remarkably dropped from 24 to 13°C in 1 hour as the front hit (accompanied by a thunderstorm), but a rapid clearance resulted in a rise back to 20°C in the next hour. Power cuts affected many central North Island places after trees were blown onto lines, especially in the Manawatu. In the South Island a number of kayakers were capsized in strong winds on Lyttelton Harbour requiring rescue. The wind was also a factor in the death of a man felling trees in West Tapanui Forest, Otago. Colder conditions settled in over the southwest of the South Island, with Queenstown reporting just 8°C in the afternoon. Further heavy rain affected Fiordland and Westland.
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Autumn 2003 Newsletter – page 19
Overnight 13-14 December, northwesterly gales caused damage in Wellington and Wairarapa with roofs lifted (notably from a church in Wellington), while a shed was reported “blown away” in Petone. Meanwhile, further south, snow fell to 700m in Fiordland, with 20cm on the Milford Track.
On 14 December, it remained cold in the southwest, with highs of only 9°C in Milford and Invercargill, along with heavy rain or showers, and west to southwest winds up to gale force about Stewart Island and the south coast. Parts of Hawkes Bay and Wairarapa continued to be battered by west to northwest gales.
On 15 December, conditions began to ease slowly, but it was still cold with a high of just 11°C in Milford, while in Invercargill, gusty westerlies brought hail showers.
Mean sea level pressure analyses for midday NZDT 10-15 December 2002 respectively are shown here.
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Autumn 2003 Newsletter – page 20
Heavy rain brings floods to northern districts 25-28 February 2003
A period of sub-tropical easterlies brought heavy rain and floods to northern districts at the end of February.
On 25 February, heavy rain was first noted in Northland and Coromandel Peninsula as the easterly flow became established. Gale force winds in the Hauraki Gulf meant America’s Cup yacht racing was cancelled for the day.
During 25-26 February, the zone of moist easterlies drifted further south with heaviest rainfalls in Coromandel Peninsula and Gisborne districts (totals around 140mm in 24 hours to midday 26th in some parts). Strong easterlies (gusts to 170 km/hr at Channel Island in the Hauraki Gulf) again prevented America’s Cup racing.
The rain continued on the 27th with heavy falls spreading a little further south into Hawkes Bay. In the 24 hours to midday on the 27th, the Pinnacles in the Coromandel recorded about 360mm, while Paeroa and Hicks Bay measured 130-140mm in the same period. Floods and slips resulted, especially about Paeroa and in northeast Gisborne district. The peak occurred overnight 27-28 February when homes were evacuated in Paeroa after being flooded, and numerous roads closed. America’s Cup racing was off for the third day in a row on the 27th.
During this period there were unusually warm temperatures in the southwest of the North Island, and in the central South Island. On the Kapiti Coast, foehn northeasterlies pushed highs to around 27°C on 26/27 February, and then broke all records on the 28th with a high of 30°C (29.6°C to be exact) at Paraparaumu Airport - its highest ever temperature, records going back to 1953. Meanwhile, Alexandra in Central Otago reached 31°C on the same day, having been 29°C on the 26th and 30°C on the 27th.
In the Manawatu, the strong easterly winds which brought the high temperatures on the 28th also caused problems by fanning a scrub-fire near Bulls.
Mean sea level pressure analyses for midday NZDT 24 February to 1 March 2003 respectively are shown here.
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Autumn 2003 Newsletter – page 21
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Autumn 2003 Newsletter – page 22
Monthly Notes For Summer 2002/2003 Ben Tichborne
December 2002 This month was a variable one for Christchurch, but with below normal rainfall. Northeasterlies persisted for the first five days - some sea fog enveloping the city during the evening of the 3rd. There was a period of rain on the 7th/8th with strong, cool southerlies on the 9th, delivering some snow to the Alps. By contrast, warm northwesterly, then westerly winds were often strong and gusty from 11th-14th. The most significant weather, however, was on the 26th - a southerly change later that afternoon brought scattered thunder and hail to parts of the city and neighbouring areas, and snow fell again on the alps, reaching as low as 700 metres around the Tekapo and Mt Cook areas.
January 2003 This month had below normal rainfall again, but not by much, due to two rain events. Onshore flows predominated - northeasterlies alternating with several southerly changes. The only really significant weather came in two periods. There was a period of rain on the 11th/12th, and cold southerlies continued to bring showers through to the 14th, with some hail on Banks Peninsula. Fresh snow fell on the Alps. Strong, disturbed westerly quarter conditions prevailed from the 22nd to the 25th. These were initially felt as warm northwesterlies in Canterbury on the 22nd, but on the 24th, a southwest change brought a brief period of heavy rain, hail, and thunder about midday. Showers continued at times in a cold south to southwest flow through the 26th, with more snow on the Alps.
February 2003 Drier than normal conditions continued for yet another month, with record sunshine for the city. Northeasterly winds predominated, with a number of southerly changes. Nights were often much cooler than normal - a light frost even being reported at the airport early on the 20th, when a cold westerly flow covered the South Island behind a trough, bringing snow to the alps. The northwesterlies affecting Canterbury and Christchurch that day weren’t nearly as warm as they should have been - maximums reached no higher than about 20C. Cold showery weather affected the city early on the 21st after a southerly front moved through, with snow well down on the foothills; showers and hail persisting on the peninsula through the day. Meteorological Society of New Zealand Autumn 2003 Newsletter – page 23 Meteorological Society of New Zealand Autumn 2003 Newsletter – page 24 Meteorological Society of New Zealand Autumn 2003 Newsletter – page 25 Meteorological Society of New Zealand Autumn 2003 Newsletter – page 26 Meteorological Society of New Zealand Autumn 2003 Newsletter – page 27 Meteorological Society of New Zealand Autumn 2003 Newsletter – page 28 Meteorological Society of New Zealand Autumn 2003 Newsletter – page 29 Meteorological Society of New Zealand Autumn 2003 Newsletter – page 30
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Autumn 2003 Newsletter – page 31 Meteorological Society of New Zealand Autumn 2003 Newsletter – page 32 Meteorological Society of New Zealand Autumn 2003 Newsletter – page 33 Meteorological Society of New Zealand Autumn 2003 Newsletter – page 34 Meteorological Society of New Zealand Autumn 2003 Newsletter – page 35 Meteorological Society of New Zealand Autumn 2003 Newsletter – page 36 Meteorological Society of New Zealand Autumn 2003 Newsletter – page 37 Meteorological Society of New Zealand Autumn 2003 Newsletter – page 38
Wild storms wreak havoc and more are on the way 10.01.2003 Fresh weather warnings have been made for the rain and wind-lashed Coromandel and Bay of Plenty - and washed-out campers have left in droves. The Coromandel Peninsula continued to have heavy rain yesterday and the MetService said it expected up to 70mm would fall by this morning. Forecasters also warned of further heavy rain in the Bay of Plenty and north of Gisborne until today, with 120mm expected in the Kaimai-Mamaku ranges and 50mm-60mm closer to the coast. MetService warned "sporadic heavy downpours could occur at times, with thunderstorms bringing falls as high as 20mm-30mm per hour in a few places".
In Whitianga, on the Coromandel Peninsula, Aucklander Carol Ryall woke in terror when a wind-blown pine tree crashed through the caravan ceiling above her at 2.30am yesterday. The large tree damaged the new caravan she and husband Bryan Ryall had towed to the Mercury Bay Motor Camp. The tree stove in the roof of the caravan and partially collapsed an attached awning where Mrs Ryall's son, Paul Robertson, 31, was sleeping on the bottom level of a bunk bed. Mr Robertson's choice of bunk was a lucky one because the empty top bunk was crushed.
Flood clean up begins on North Shore 10.01.2003 Flooding in parts of Auckland's North Shore this morning forced the closure of several streets and left a mess of mud and debris that will take days for property owners and council crews to clean up. North Shore suburbs Torbay and eastern Albany were most affected by today's surface flooding. The flooding was caused by drains being unable to cope with very heavy rain falling over a short time, said council water services operations chief Wally Potts. He said 70 mm of rain fell over 24 hours, with 38 mm of it falling in an hour. - HERALD STAFF, NZPA A Torbay resident wades through floodwaters this morning. Picture / Paul Estcourt
Rain relief for farmers 13 January 2003 By AMANDA WARREN
Weekend rain in the South Island has taken the heat off farmers on scorched east coast farms. But their relief was tempered with the knowledge more rain is needed to build up depleted soil- moisture levels. About 15mm of rain fell in parts of North Canterbury, with a similar amount recorded on Banks Peninsula farms. New Zealand's driest area, Waimate, recorded 17mm of rain during the weekend, while more than 25mm fell in Geraldine and parts of the Ashburton district. About 40mm Farmers say the rain will help to kick-start pasture growth and be a help for winter-feed crops. The rain was a welcome relief, he said, but a lot more was needed to sustain farmers during a scorching summer. THANK HEAVENS: North Canterbury farmer James Ensor welcomes rain on his parched deer and crop farm. ANNETTE TURNBULL-DEW/The Press
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Autumn 2003 Newsletter – page 39
Sun shines strongly in south 16 January 2003 By ANNA CLARIDGE
Hot. That's the only word for yesterday's weather, and Invercargill woman Maureen Haywood-Fife has proof. At times the thermometer in the sunny courtyard of her Craig Street home reached close to 50degC. The long-time Invercargill resident was so pleased, she called The Southland Times to help take her story to the world. "It's proof," she said. "Everyone always says that Invercargill gets only rainy days and I just wanted to show people that it was nice, and it is sunny." When The Southland Times visited the thermometer read 45degC. This was almost twice the reading on the usual Southland measure – the H&J Smith clock – which, at the time, showed just 23degC. Mrs Haywood-Fife's husband helped build the H&J Smith clock Southlanders look to but she's always had her own temperature measure and was yesterday standing by her thermometer. 45South weather forecaster Andy Fraser said the light winds could make people feel the heat more, but weather forecasters were concerned with air temperature, not the temperature in direct sunlight. The Met Service yesterday recorded 21degC for Invercargill, 27degC for Alexandra and 21degC for Queenstown. HEATWAVE: Maureen Haywood-Fife with her hot, hot, hot thermometer in Invercargill yesterday. At times the temperature, which was in a sunny courtyard, read 49degC. JOHN HAWKINS/The Southland Times
Beach walker zapped as he admired the clouds 27.01.2003
David Robinson will think twice about walking along the beach during an electrical storm after being struck by lightning. "I feel neither lucky nor unlucky," he said from his bed in Christchurch Hospital yesterday. "You can see it as I was lucky not to get a full blast or I was unlucky to get a half-blast. "I was walking along [Pines] beach, towards home, and I was admiring these lovely black clouds with the odd lightning fork coming down. "Next thing I know I came to, covered in hailstones. "The whole beach was covered in hailstones."
He estimates he was unconscious for about 10 minutes after being struck down during Friday's freak storm: "My foggy thoughts figured out that I must have been struck by lightning," he said. " I was numb, cold and I took about 10 minutes to get to my feet. "It was like I had dead legs. "The wonky balance, combined with legs being dead, combined with the electricity in the head - I just wasn't with it." Mr Robinson made his own way home. He was reluctant to admit he needed help, but went to hospital at the urging of a friend.
"Apparently a common danger is the electricity causing irregularities in the rhythm of the heart," he said. The rarity of lightning striking humans made Mr Robinson a star at Christchurch Hospital. "I've had doctors and nurses from all around the place coming to stand around me," he said. The main visible signs of the lightning hit were red marks "like fern leaves" on Mr Robinson's shoulders. And there is redness and swelling in his arm where his watch apparently drew the current up his arm. "I think it must have landed nearby and touched me and travelled through my arm," he said. "One of the main indicators of that is that I haven't got any sign of [burns] on my foot. "It's a bizarre, funny business." Mr Robinson was discharged from hospital yesterday afternoon. But he was still feeling weak and sore and his balance is still "up the wonk". He will spend a long period resting and recovering from the strike, but fears he will be left with some "permanent deficit". Meteorological Society of New Zealand Autumn 2003 Newsletter – page 40
Growing cyclone risk sparks radar mission 28.01.2003 By SIMON COLLINS science reporter
Auckland University scientists are going to Queensland to study tropical cyclones in case global warming starts sending them our way. Led by physics professor Geoff Austin, they are building a mobile radar device to measure wind speeds and rain inside a cyclone. They plan to speed up the north Queensland coast in a four-wheel-drive to place the radar and rain gauges on exposed hilltops before a cyclone hits. "We'll be running in, bolting everything down and running out, and after it's all over we'll go back and see whether we were lucky or not," Dr Austin said. "Normally the distribution of rain gauges is pretty sparse and the power goes out and trees are down. So we'll be putting a rain gauge several hundred metres up, and no one has ever done that for a tropical cyclone." The research, paid for by the New Zealand and Australian governments, could have immediate value for northern New Zealand if rising world temperatures shift the summer cyclone belt southwards. Geoff Austin supervises the building of the mobile radar. Picture / Derek Flynn
Dr Austin said people building houses in exposed places should consider precautions such as using two nails instead of one to secure roof tiles or metal roofs. "I am building a house in a fairly exposed location at Waipu and I am getting everything double-nailed." He said cyclones usually developed only at sea surface temperatures above 26C - now north of a line midway between New Zealand and Fiji in the summer peak. Summer sea temperatures around northern New Zealand are now about 20C. World average temperatures have risen about 0.4C since 1860, and are forecast to rise 1.4C to 5.8C by 2100 through the "greenhouse effect" partly caused by carbon dioxide from car fumes and industry. "The whole region here could really warm up 2C in 100 years," Dr Austin said. "But there is more than a 2C inter-annual variability, so the worry is that would make it two plus two. If we are 20C now, that takes us to 24C, which is getting uncomfortably close to 26C. "More importantly, the 26C isotherm could come quite a few hundreds of kilometres further south, and that would still have a pretty wound-up tropical cyclone coming down our way." Dr Austin and Auckland University technicians have designed a mobile radar costing about $60,000 plus labour, compared with Swiss gear used by US laboratories costing more than US$1 million. Drought woes increase 13 February 2003 By SOPHIE WILSON
Marlborough's drought is taking its toll on Ward, where the hills are brown, stock are dying in muddy dams and streams are drying up. Locals say the region is as dry as anyone has seen it and are predicting Lake Elterwater will have dried out for the first time in 20 years by next month. Farmers are wondering what will happen to the little stock they have left when precious water supplies run out. Brian Schwass, who has lived near Ward Beach since 1947, says he has never seen the region so dry or the land so bare. He said the weather pattern had changed, and instead of rain the southerly just brought wind to the region. "We haven't had a decent rain of two or three inches for three years. When I first came here we would have two or three floods and year." Tetley Brook farmer Richard Hammond said the region was always dry in summer but the dry spring this year meant water tables were low and stock water was running out. That was affecting farmer morale, he said. "They are all starting to talk about it now so it is becoming a bit of a problem." The dry spring had left water tables quite low throughout Marlborough, he said. "A lot are at or below where they were at the same time in 2001. A number are sitting at the lowest we have recorded them for this time of year." DRY: A vast area of cracked earth makes up most of Lake Elterwater in Flaxbourne. The last time the lake dried up was in 1924, says Resident Dennis Burkhart. SCOTT HAMMOND/The Marlborough Express
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Autumn 2003 Newsletter – page 41
Water limits set in drought 14 February 2003 By DAVID KING
Canterbury dairy farmers face the prospect of a shortened milking season and dipping into winter feed stocks early as the drought worsens. Environment Canterbury (ECan) has placed irrigation restrictions on 24 rivers and creeks and fears are growing about dropping groundwater levels in parts of Canterbury. While dairy farming leaders in the region are talking openly of drought, weather experts say there is worse to come with below-normal rainfall likely across the east coast for the next three months. According to the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa), soil-moisture deficit levels across much of Canterbury and the east coast have now reached severe levels. Dairy Farmers New Zealand North Canterbury chairman Harry Schat, who farms at Te Pirita where concern is already growing about dropping groundwater levels, said dairy farmers would be looking at drying off lower-producing cows to maximize production, and beginning to hand out winter feed to maintain cows' condition. The likelihood of more water restrictions would have a severe impact on winter feeds, he said. Niwa climatologist Jim Salinger said soil-moisture deficit levels below 110mm were significantly low, while below 130mm was classed as severe. This meant that 130mm of rain was needed to bring levels back up. As of last Sunday Kaikoura and Hanmer had deficits of 137mm, Christchurch was 135mm, Rangiora was at 133mm, and Darfield was 130mm.
WATER DILEMMA: Farmer Chris Bailey is able to run his irrigator as long as his stock are not drinking water at the same time because his well cannot sustain both. DON SCOTT/The Press Good and bad news on weather 19 February 2003 By KIM WOODHAM
The bad news on the weather front is that only average to below average rainfall is expected in the next three months, according to the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa). This brings little relief to Taranaki farmers who are already struggling from severe drought conditions.
The good news is that the El Nino weather pattern, which brings more westerly and south-westerly winds and lower temperatures, will be gone by winter, Niwa climate scientist Jim Salinger said at a public meeting in Stratford yesterday. The weather would switch to a neutral pattern, which meant seasonal temperatures should return to average. WEATHER EXPERT: Niwa scientist Jim Salinger addresses a crowd in Stratford. TREVOR READ/The Daily News Meteorological Society of New Zealand Autumn 2003 Newsletter – page 42
HIGH RISK: Rural fire officer Keith Marshall says Christchurch's tinder-dry Port Hills are a 'time-bomb waiting to happen.' He is on standby 24 hours a day, seven days a week, for a call which could send him chasing after Canterbury's next big blaze. JOHN KIRK-ANDERSON/The Press
Summer days on constant fire watch 20 February 2003 By AMANDA WARREN
Keith Marshall shakes his head as he stares across the tinder-dry Port Hills. "This area is one I'm not sure I'd want to live in," says Canterbury's principal rural fire officer. His hand brushes the pager on his belt as he walks through Victoria Park's waist-high grass, dried out from weeks of soaring temperatures and warm winds.
He has been on call 24 hours-a-day, seven days-a-week since the beginning of summer. During dinner at home, a weekend movie or a night out with friends, he listens constantly for the beep- beep-beep which could send him chasing Canterbury's next big blaze. His wife "would cheerfully throw the pager down the toilet". But even without it, Mr. Marshall admits he would still be on the lookout for smoke. Every day he looks toward the Port Hills from the window of his fourth- floor Tuam Street city council office, "waiting and wondering". Mr. Marshall calls the Port Hills a "time-bomb waiting to happen". "We would need 100mm over two or three days, and cool balmy weather for the next three weeks to lower the risk," he says. "But that isn't going to be happening until April." Cold snap leaves its majestic handiwork 22 February 2003
Snow fell to 500m in parts of Southland, Otago, and Canterbury before dawn yesterday as a wintry blast swept over the South Island. Canterbury's Torlesse Range was blanketed in snow forming a stark contrast to the sun- parched plains below. The uncharacteristically cold weather was caused by an airflow dragged up from the Southern Ocean. But it is not time to bring out the winter woollies or panic about the lack of firewood. MetService meteorologist Mick Rice said the cold snap was just a brief blast and there would be a return to summer later today. It brought with it icy rain, hail, snow, and some spectacular lighting strikes but would be pushed offshore today, Mr. Rice said. WINTER'S WHISPER: A cold snap just before dawn on Thursday blanketed Canterbury's Torlesse Ranges with snow as a gentle reminder of the pending change in season. JOHN KIRK-ANDERSON/The Press Meteorological Society of New Zealand Autumn 2003 Newsletter – page 43
Whodunnits, forensics - and weather forecasters
By PAUL GORMAN 24 February 2003 Weather forecasters are finding themselves in court these days – on the right side of the law. Providing weather-related evidence for court cases and insurance claims is among the business services offered by the MetService since the Wellington-based former government department became a state-owned enterprise in 1992. Forensic meteorology is a burgeoning field overseas, especially in litigious countries like the United States. The role fits fairly comfortably, as good forecasters need to be something of a detective and piece together lots of information while trusting their gut instincts. Chief forecaster Rod Stainer said only the most experienced forecasters could work as forensic meteorologists. Paul Mallinson filled the post till a few months ago, when Ross Marsden took over. Both had been forecasters for more than 20 years. FRONTING UP: Forensic meteorologist Ross Marsden has been a weather forecaster for more than 20 years. His role providing weather-related evidence in court cases is a burgeoning field overseas. CRAIG SIMCOX/Dominion Post
Gardeners seek tiny drops of comfort
By KATHRYN POWLEY 26 February 2003 A Paraparaumu woman is showering with a bucket in an effort to save a few drops of water for her garden as drought bites on the Kapiti Coast. Raumati, Paraparaumu and Waikanae residents were banned from using hoses on February 13. Kapiti gardeners are fighting to keep their plants alive. Since then, like many Kapiti residents, Pat Brown of Paraparaumu Beach has been using a bucket to water her garden. "It's soul destroying," she said, looking at the withered remains of what was last year judged best small garden by the Kapiti Horticultural Society. She had also taken to showering with a bucket, to catch any extra water that could be used on the garden. But wind, lack of rain and sandy soils had foiled her efforts. "It just runs off . . . The water just doesn't go in at all." Pritchard's Green World owner Kevin Pritchard said drought damage to gardens was upsetting many gardeners. "Some people are really angry. They're just upset that they have spent all that money on their garden." But everybody he knew of, even bore users, was being careful with water, using buckets and water from their washing machines. WASTE NOT: Pat Brown of Paraparaumu waters a parched fuchsia with water saved from her shower, as drought bites on the Kapiti Coast. PHIL REID/Dominion Post
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Autumn 2003 Newsletter – page 44
Flood threat retreats
28 February 2003
The major threat of flooding in Paeroa has passed, but another low to the north could again bring further rain to the saturated region.
Hauraki Mayor Basil Morrison said today four houses were evacuated last night after heavy persistent rain fell on the Coromandel Peninsula causing flooding that closed roads and brought down power lines. Up to 14 houses were threatened at one stage, but just two flats and two houses were evacuated about 7.30pm yesterday. The residents had stayed with friends overnight and were expected to return to their homes this morning to clean up. Over 450mm of rain has fallen in the last three days, and further showers are expected today. Adding to the rain problems, was the fact that for a time, both pumps in a water diversion scheme had failed. Meanwhile, homes were evacuated last night in the East Coast township of Mangatuna, 12km north of Tolaga Bay, as heavy rain pushed up river levels. Gisborne civil defence staff were on alert again today as the Met Service warned the district could be hit by further heavy rain bursts. In the 15 hours from 9am this morning, another 70-90mm was expected in the Gisborne ranges. About six Mangatuna houses were voluntarily evacuated late last night as the Uawa and Hikawai rivers rose to what is thought to be the highest level recorded since Cyclone Bola in 1988.
SHEEP DIP: Gene Petersen helps neighbour Adrienne Tozer get her pet sheep Hey-Ewe to dry ground following torrential rain in Paeroa yesterday. CAROLYN ELLIOTT/Waikato Times Rush on bottled water as taps run dry 13 March 2003 By KATHRYN POWLEY
Kapiti Coast supermarkets are struggling to keep up with demand for bottled water after the council warned residents they might have to boil drinking water. Kapiti Coast District Council has told residents of Paraparaumu, Raumati and Waikanae that if water consumption does not drop dramatically, supplies will run so low that the water supply could be contaminated. Raumati Beach resident Diane Brady said she decided to buy a six-litre container of water yesterday as a precaution, partly because boiling large quantities of water for a family of six plus visitors would be inconvenient, but also because she was not sure how long to boil water to make it safe for drinking. "Today is the first time I've bought water." Kapiti Pak 'N Save grocery manager Clint Mengle said the supermarket's filtered water dispenser had pumped 160 litres into customers' containers on Tuesday – its biggest day since opening in December. Bottled water sales were up by 30 per cent, with shoppers now buying about 2700 litres each week. A Waikanae Woolworths spokeswoman said it, too, was doing a roaring trade in bottled water. "We've found it difficult to keep up with the supply on shelves . . . probably the larger (two- to three- litre) containers go first," she said. STOCKING UP: Diane Brady of Raumati Beach buys bottled water for the first time in her 22 years of living on the Kapiti Coast. ROSS GIBLIN/Dominion Post Meteorological Society of New Zealand Autumn 2003 Newsletter – page 45
Auer advises farmers to keep weather records By JOHN CUTT 15 March 2003 Speaking to farmers at a field-day in Southland, Mr. Auer said he had been interested in meteorology since the age of 13. Although of a St Louis city (United States) background, where his father owned a metallurgy business, he had always had an affinity with the outdoors, he said. St Louis had a reputation for its volatile weather and the city's university had been one of only three in the US to offer a degree in meteorology. Mr. Auer had spent the past 45 years in the weather business, in private and government organisations and at university level – teaching and research, he said. In the mid-1980s he and his wife travelled to New Zealand where he spent a year with the Meteorological Service. He returned in 1990 to take a permanent position with the MetService, eventually becoming its chief meteorologist. Criticism of weather forecasters was often the result of failure to communicate in meaningful terms that people could readily understand, he said. Farmers should keep their own climate records, together with explanations of the conditions they experienced, so they could add their own local experiences and interpretations to official weather forecasts, Mr. Auer said. That way they could be proactive in making management decisions to counter drought, flood or snowstorms. There was no substitute for good record-keeping, he said. Four important rules farmers would be wise to follow were observe (monitor), analyse (understand) the data, use the data to predict what might happen, and then control or modify management decisions.
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Autumn 2003 Newsletter – page 46
Kid’s Corner Some meteorological amusements for children of all ages. A free cloud poster will be sent to all contributors that send in something that is accepted for printing. Send your contribution (cartoon, puzzle, whatever) to the Newsletter editor (address inside back cover).
Find the ten cloud types
Find the words in the grid. When you are done, the unused letters in the grid will spell out a hidden message. Pick them out from left to right, top line to bottom line. Words can go across, down and in two diagonals.
N M E T E O R O L O G I C C
I A A L T O S T R A T U S I
M L S L O C S I E T Y A U R
B T U M T U N T 2 0 0 3 S R
O P U Z R O Z L R E F U I O
S R S R T P C E R A L S O S
T N I T O R E U A U T D T T
R C H I S E M A M I L U I R
A T T O M C D U @ U C Y S A
T C I R R O C U M U L U S T
U B E R N E T . C O . U N U
S T R A T O C U M U L U S S
Z F O R G L O R Y M T R G N
L P C U M U L O N I M B U S Meteorological Society of New Zealand Autumn 2003 Newsletter – page 47
WHAT IS THE MET SOCIETY?
The Society is a group of people from around New Zealand (and overseas) who like to share their fascination in weather and its antics. The Society was inaugurated at a meeting held in Wellington on 11 October 1979. The objects of the Society are to encourage an interest in the atmosphere, weather, and climate, particularly as related to the New Zealand region.
What does the Society provide? • Access to a lively committee who are specially elected watchdogs for any contentious issue involving weather or climate. • For members in the main centres: An e-group for communications plus organised meetings throughout the year on weather and climate topics. • A quarterly newsletter full of member’s news and views plus descriptions of recent significant weather. • An annual professional journal Weather and Climate, providing members access to the latest peer-reviewed thinking in the profession of meteorology. It is accepted internationally as the journal that gives recognition of the value of meteorological and climatological work done in New Zealand. It contains papers of interest to both professional and general readers. It also includes book reviews and explanations of the unusual. Members are invited to send in their own descriptions or photos. • An annual conference. • A web site http://metsoc.rsnz.org/
Who are the Society members? We are a mix of professionals and non-professionals. We come from a broad range of backgrounds, including: • meteorologists, weather watchers and storm chasers • climatologists, environmentalists and geographers • hydrologists and ecologists • sailors and divers • trampers and climbers • aviators and glider pilots • agriculturists and aquaculturists • astronomers and cloud-admirers • economists and engineers • professional weather forecasters Meteorological Society of New Zealand Autumn 2003 Newsletter – page 48
MEMBERSHIP APPLICATION FORM
Anyone with an interest in the atmosphere, weather and climate of New Zealand may join us. We welcome applications from non-professionals and from those in disciplines related to the study of the atmosphere (oceanography, hydrology, etc.).
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