WASHINGTON RAPORU

25 Mart - 1 Nisan 2016

Editör: Kadir Üstün

Hazırlayanlar: Kadir Üstün, Kılıç Kanat, Ahmet Tekelioğlu, Lesley Dudden, Sonya Khattak

SETA DC Washington Raporu 1 of 38 İçindekiler

Genel Değerlendirme 3 Dış Politika 4 12 Amerikan Generali Irak’ta bulunuyor, Pentagon Ek Asker Talep Etti 4 Esed Rejimi Palmyra Sonrası Rakka’ya mı Yönelecek? 5 Nükleer Güvenlik Zirvesi 6 Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan’ın Washington Seyahati 8 İç Politika 10 Trump Zorlu Bir Hafta Geçirdi 10 Sanders Pes Etmiyor 10 Önemli Gelişmeler 11 Resmi Kurumlar 13 White House Blog 13 State Department Blog 13 Department Of Defense News 14 Düşünce Kuruluşları Faaliyetleri ve Yayınları 16 Kamuoyu Yoklamaları 26 Pew Research Center 26 Gallup Polls 26 Rasmussen Reports 27 Toplantı Raporları 29 The Syrian Kurds: Whose Ally? 29 The Situation in Iraqi Kurdistan: An Update 35

SETA DC Washington Raporu 2 of 38 Genel Değerlendirme

Bu haftanın en önemli gündem maddesi Washington’da yapılan Küresel Nükleer Zirve oldu. Zirveye katılan 50 civarında ülkenin delegasyonları şehrin gündemini belirledi. Başkan Obama yalnızca Çin Başkanı’yla bire bir resmi görüşme yaparken Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan’la resmi olmayan bir görüşme yaptı. Zirvede nükleer güvenlik meseleleri ele alınırken Türkiye’yle ilgili tartışmalarda bir yandan eleştirel ifadeler kullanırken bir yandan IŞİD’le mücadele ekseninde Türk-Amerikan ortaklığına vurgu yapıldı. Türkiye’yle ilgili olarak özellikle basın özgürlüğü konusunda eleştiriler yoğunlaştı ve başkan Obama da nispeten üstü örtülü bir biçimde bu konuyu gündeme getirerek Türkiye’de endişe ettiği eğilimlerden bahsetti. Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan’ın ABD’nin önde gelen düşünce kuruluşu Brookings Enstitüsü’nde yapacağı konuşma öncesinde Türk korumalarla Gülenci gazeteciler ve diğer bazı göstericiler arasında yaşanan arbede sahneleri Amerikan basınında geniş yer buldu. Bu anlamda uzun süredir devam eden Türkiye’nin otoriterleştiği yönündeki temalar işlenmeye devam etti. Amerikan Dışişleri Bakanı Kerry, Başkan Yardımcısı Biden ve Başkan Obama’yla görüşmeler gerçekleştiren Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan’ın özellikle PKK ve YPG ilişkisi, İsrail’le ilişkiler, Kıbrıs’ta çözüm süreci ve mülteciler gibi konulara odaklandığı ve net mesajlar verdiği gözlemlendi. Önümüzdeki dönemde PKK ile YPG’nin aynı örgüt olduğu ve IŞİD’e karşı mücadelede gerçek bir partner olamayacağı yönündeki tezin Amerikan tarafından karşılık bulup bulmadığını gözlemleyeceğiz.

Başkanlık yarışında Trump oldukça zorlu bir hafta geçirdi ve önümüzdeki Salı günü yapılacak olan Wisconsin yarışına dezavantajlı girdiğini söylemek mümkün. Kürtajın yasaklanması gerektiği ve bunu ihlal eden kadınların da cezalandırılabileceği yönündeki sözleri, Trump’ın kadınlar arasındaki desteğini iyice dibe çekmiş görünüyor. Wisconsin yarışının başkan adayını belirleme noktasında geleneksel olarak iyi bir gösterge sunması itibariyle ve Cruz’un halihazırda Trump’ı bu eyalette geçiyor olması, Trump için sonun başlangıcı olmasına işaret edebilir. Ancak Trump bu yarışı kaybetse de New York, New Jersey ve California gibi eyaletleri beklemek gerekecek. Wisconsin’i kaybedecek bir Trump’ın zor bir dönemece gireceği kesin ancak kampanyasının başarısızlığını ilan etmek için erken olacak.

SETA DC Washington Raporu 3 of 38 Dış Politika

12 Amerikan Generali Irak’ta bulunuyor, Pentagon Ek Asker Talep Etti Amerikan ordusunun 12 generali ile Irak’taki askeri operasyonları yönettiğine dikkat çekilen haberler son dönemde ülkedeki asker sayısının da kabul edilenden fazla olduğu gerçeği ile birleşerek ABD’nin IŞİD karşıtı operasyonlara verdiği öneme işaret ediyor. Bu durum Beyaz Saray’ın IŞİD karşısında muharip bir düzlemde olunmadığı argümanıyla da tenakuz arzediyor. Zaman zaman sayıları 20’yi bulan 12 general içinde en az bir tane özel harekat komandosu komutanı da bulunduğu varsayılıyor. The Daily Beast’in ilgili haberinde ismi verilmeyen bir kaynak bu kadar çok sayıda yüksek rütbeli askerin sahada bulunmasının yer yer bürokratik süreçleri uzattığına ve IŞİD gibi saha şartlarına hızla adapte olan bir örgütle mücadelede ek sorun teşkil ettiğine işaret ediyor. Amerikan ordusu ise Irak’taki Amerikalı general sayısının fazla olmasının normal olduğunu savunuyor. Pentagon yetkilileri Iraklı muadilleriyle aynı seviyede general bulunmasının aynı zamanda kapsamlı koordinasyon gerektiren operasyonlar için elzem olduğunu belirtiyor.

Bu bağlamda Washington’daki dikkatler bir yandan da son dönemde iç siyasetinde yeniden çalkantılı bir döneme giren Irak’taki yeni hükümet kurma çabasına ve Muktada El Sadr’ın siyasi ve askeri gücünün öne çıkmasına yönelmiş durumda. Sadr’ın bir anlamda Başbakan Haydar Abadi’ye yardımcı olan yeni hükümet talebi ve düzenlediği protestoların koordineli olup olmadığı bilinmese de Bağdat’daki protestoları bitirip Necef’e geri dönen Sadr’ın ABD için sorunlu bir geçmişe sahip olsa da ülkedeki ağırlığı Washington’da not ediliyor. Musul operasyonunun startının verildiği bir dönemde İran’ın ülkedeki ağırlığı ve Şii milislerin potansiyel güç projeksiyonu da Washington-İran hattı arasındaki dengeler ışığında Washington’da yakından takip ediliyor.

Öte yandan önceki hafta sayılarının önceki tahminlerin ötesinde 5000’i bulduğu açıklanan Irak ve Suriye’deki Amerikan askeri sayısının daha da artırılması yönünde Pentagon’dan Beyaz Saray’a bir talep gitti. Musul operasyonu için ek asker ikmalinin gerekli olduğunu belirten Savunma Bakanı Carter ve Genelkurmay Başkanı Joseph Dunford’un bu yöndeki taleplerini Beyaz Saray’a iletecekleri belirtiliyor.

SETA DC Washington Raporu 4 of 38 Esed Rejimi Palmyra Sonrası Rakka’ya mı Yönelecek? Esed rejimi Pazar günü Suriye’deki Palmyra şehrini IŞİD’den aldığını açıkladı. Antik Roma kalıntılarıyla ünlü olan ve UNESCO miras listesinde bulunan kalıntıların IŞİD tarafından tahrip edilmesi dünya kamuoyunda tepki çekmişti. Bazı değerlendirmelerde sembolik önemi yüksek olan şehri almak üzere 27 Şubat’ta devreye giren geçici ateşkes sürecinden bu yana operasyonlarına hız veren Rusya desteğindeki Esed ordusunun bu şekilde dünya kamuoyunda puan kazanmaya çalıştığı öne çıkarılıyor. Bu bağlamda Amerikan Dışişleri sözcüsü John Kirby’nin de gelen bir soru karşısında Palmyra’nın IŞİD’in elinden çıkmasını olumlu bir gelişme olarak tanımlaması ve BM Genel Sekreteri Ban ki-Moon’un da benzer bir noktayı tekrarlaması bu amacın bir anlamda gerçekleştiğine işaret ediyor. Bununla birlikte Washington’daki analizlerde Esed rejiminin geçici ateşkes sürecinde ve bölgesindeki köylerde yerel liderlerle görüşmelerine hız vererek Suriyeli silahlı muhalifleri marjinalize etmeye çalıştığına dikkat çekiliyor. Keza rejimin Palmyra üzerinde durmasında doğu Suriye’deki doğalgaz kaynaklarının kontrölünün yeniden ele geçirilmesinin yattığı da belirtiliyor.

Bu analizlerde Rusya eliyle çizilen stratejilerde rejimin ilk etapta Rakka’ya dönük bir perspektif geliştirdiği ve çatışmasızlık sürecinde elindeki tüm enstrümanlarla Rakka’daki IŞİD varlığını ABD koalisyonundan önce hedef alarak ‘meşruiyetini’ kazanmaya gayret edeceği belirtiliyor. Her ne kadar Amerikan askeri kaynakları Suriye ordusunun bu denli kapsamlı operasyonları gerçekleştiremeyecek kadar zayıfladığına dikkat çekseler de sahayı ve rejimin söylemini takip eden bu analizlerde Esed’in Suriye’nin tamamında hakimiyet kurma emelinden vazgeçmediği ve kuzeydeki Kürt varlığına göz yumabilecek olsa da ülkenin üçlü bir yapıya bölünmesini kabul etmeyeceği belirtiliyor. Aynı şekilde ABD ve Avrupa’dan Esed’in muhalefetle beraber hükümet kurulabileceği açıklamasına Suriye muhalefeti gibi Esed’in yeni hükümetin parçası olamayacağı şeklinde yorumlar gelmiş olsa da rejimin önce Deir Ezzor’u eline geçirip ardından Rakka operasyonu planını hayata geçirmesi halinde Obama’nın rejim ve Rusya ile bu konuda işbirliği yapmayı seçmek zorunda kalabileceği belirtiliyor.

Bu bağlamda Rusya’nın Suriye’den ‘geri çekilmesi’ de tartışılmaya devam ediyor. Bazı analizlerde savaş jetlerini geri çeken Putin’in perde arkasından rejime verdiği desteği tüm hızıyla

SETA DC Washington Raporu 5 of 38 sürdürdüğü ve Suriye operasyonlarında bu kez savaş helikopterlerinin aktif şekilde kullanılarak rejime avantaj sağlamaya devam ettiğine işaret ediliyor. Esasen iki yeni helikopter tipinin gözlemlendiği Suriye’deki Rus askeri varlığının ek kargo uçuşları sonrasında Rus üslerini ikmal etme ötesinde yeni bir kapasiteye geçiş yaptığı belirtiliyor. Öte yandan bazı diğer haberlerde ise ABD ile Rusya’nın Esed’in görevden ayrılarak üçüncü bir ülkeye gitmesi konusunda bir mutabakata vardıkları öne sürülüyor. Bir BM Güvenlik Konseyi yetkilisine dayandırılan ve el- Hayat gazetesinde çıkan habere göre Kerry’nin bazı Arap ülkelerine bu yönde güvence verdiği fakat bu gelişmenin zamanlaması ve ayrıntıları noktasında bir belirginlik olmadığı belirtiliyor.

Öte yandan Pentagon Başkan Obama’nın önem verdiği bir operasyona imza atarak IŞİD’in önde gelen liderlerinden Abdurrahman Mustafa Al-Kaduli’nin Suriye’nin doğusunda Amerikan özel operasyon askerleri tarafından öldürüldüğünü açıkladı. Obama’nın IŞİD ile ilgili açıklamalarında devamlı olarak IŞİD liderliğinin telef edildiğine vurgu yapmasına paralel olarak Kaduli ile ilgili açıklama da üst düzeyden, Savunma Bakanı Ashton Carter’dan geldi. Kaduli’nin IŞİD örgütlenmesinde Bağdadi’nin finansmandan sorumlu yardımcısı olarak yer aldığı öne sürülüyor. Amerikalı komandoların Kaduli’nin içinde yer aldığı konvoyu takip ettikleri ve orijinal planlarında Kaduli’yi canlı ele geçirmenin yer aldığı fakat operasyonel şartlardaki değişiklik nedeniyle konvoyu takip eden helikopterlerin askerleri sahaya indiremediği ve bu nedenle ateş açarak Kaduli’yi öldürdükleri açıklandı.

Nükleer Güvenlik Zirvesi Obama yönetiminin dördüncüsünü düzenlediği ve bu aşamadan sonra uluslararası örgütlerin uhdesine geçecek olan Nükleer Güvenlik Zirvesi Washington’da yapıldı. İlki 2010 yılında Washington’da düzenlenen nükleer güvenlik zirveleri Obama yönetimi için hem nükleer silahlanmanın sınırlandırılması hem de halihazırda nükleer kapasitede olan ya da bu kapasiteye dönük adımlar atan ülkelerin ellerindeki teknoloji ve materyallerin terörist örgütlerin eline geçmesini önleme ve potansiyel çevre facialarının önüne geçilmesine odaklanıyor. Kendi nükleer teknolojisinde ve tesislerinde de büyük güvenlik ve çevre sorunları bulunan Washington’un bu konuya verdiği önem İran nükleer anlaşması ve Kuzey Kore’nin nükleerleşmesi gibi uluslararası kriz odakları ile de birleşerek yönetimin önemli dosyalarından biri haline geldi. Obama yönetimi

SETA DC Washington Raporu 6 of 38 Washington’daki zirveyi hem önde gelen nükleer ülkelerle hem de bu aşamaya geçen ya da nükleer materyal rotaları üzerinde olan ülkelerin gerekli güvenlik önlemlerini almasına odaklanacak bir çerçevede kurdu. Bu bağlamda Güney ve Güneydoğu Asya gibi Orta Asya coğrafyaları da zirvede üzerinde durulan bölgeler oldu.

Obama yönetiminin nükleer gündeminde ön sırayı alan İran henüz Nükleer Anlaşmanın gözlem süresi sürdüğü için zirvede yer almadı. Zirve öncesinde BM Güvenlik Konseyi’ne bir mektup sunan ABD, İngiltere, Fransa ve Almanya İ ran’ın Ekim ayındaki balistik füze denemesinin Temmuz ayında kabul edilen nükleer anlaşmanın ilk etapındaki BM Güvenlik Konseyi’nin 2231 sayılı kararını ihlal ettiğini savundu. Bu konuda BM’nin gerekli soruşturma ve adımları sürdürmesi gerektiğini savunan dört ülkenin adımı 16 Ocak’ta devreye giren İran Nükleer Anlaşması’nın bozulacağı anlamına gelmiyor. Anlaşmadaki muğlak ve esneklik içeren ifadeler nedeniyle kesin sonuçlar içermesi beklenmeyen ihlal iddiasının ancak kısıtlı yaptırımlara neden olabileceği belirtiliyor.

Beyaz Saray’ın zirve sürecinde tek resmi ikili görüşmeyi gerçekleştirdiği Çin’in nükleer güvenlik alanındaki politikalarına önem vermesi son aylarda yeniden gündemin ön sıralarına yerleşen Kuzey Kore sorunu nedeniyle sürpriz olmadı. Başkan Obama ile Çin Develet Başkanı Xi Jinping arasında yapılan ikili görüşmeler aynı zamanda iki ülke arasında iklim değişikliği anlaşmasına ve yine son dört ayda gerginliğin arttığı Güney Çin Denizi’ndeki askeri ve siyasi ortama yoğunlaştı. Çin’in bu bölgede yapay adacıklar oluşturarak bunların bir kısmını askeri güç projeksiyonu için kullanması yönetimin büyük baskı altında kalmasına ve bölgeye savaş gemileri göndermesine neden olmuştu. Keza Çin ile yapılan görüşmelerde Güney Kore ve Japonya’nın Kuzey Kore’nin füze ve nükleer teknoloji denemeleri ardından ABD ile yürüttüğü askeri işbirliğinin bir üst seviyeye taşınması ve Kuzey Kore rejimine dönük son yaptırımların geleceği de masada yer aldı. Zirvede açıklanan ABD-Çin Nükleer Güvenlik İşbirliği Taahhüdü duyurusu özellikle teknoloji transferleri ve materyallerin korunmasına ve uzun vadeli işbirliği alanlarına vurgu yaparken iki taraf aynı zamanda Eylül 2015’de duyurulan iklim değişikliği anlaşmasının altını çizen ve anlaşmanın 22 Nisan’da imzalanacağını duyuran bir açıklamaya da imza attılar.

SETA DC Washington Raporu 7 of 38 Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan’ın Washington Seyahati Cumhurbaşkanı Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’ın Salı günü Washington’a gelmesinden önce Amerikan ordusunun Türkiye’de konuşlu mensuplarının ailelerinin güvenlik tehdidi nedeniyle Türkiye dışına çıkarılacağı açıklandı. Türkiye ile ortaklaşa alındığı belirtilen bu kararla birlikte Amerikan Dışişleri misyonlarının Adana, Muğla ve İzmir’de yerleşik aile mensuplarının da ABD’ye döneceği açıklandı. Bingazi büyükelçiliği travması nedeniyle güvenlik bürokrasinin dikkatli olması ve Brüksel saldırıları sonrasında benzer önlemlerin Avrupa’da da devreye sokulmasının bu kararda etkili olduğunu söylemek mümkün.

Bu haberin etkisi altında başlayan ziyaret öncesinde Amerikan basınında Erdoğan’ın Obama ile görüşme noktasında ısrarlı olmasına rağmen randevu alamadığı bilgisi üzerinden Erdoğan’ın Washington’da soğuk karşılanacağı yönünde birçok haber çıktı. WSJ ve Bloomberg View’de çıkan iki makalede Obama ile Erdoğan arasındaki ilişkilerin gergin olduğuna atıf yapılırken Obama’nın Türkiye’deki basın özgürlüğü ve ‘otoriterleşme’ eğiliminden rahatsız olduğu vurgulandı. Politico sitesi de haberinde Obama’nın Erdoğan’ı ‘azarlayacağını’ savundu. Keza Türkiye ile ABD arasında YPG merkezli sorunların arttığına dikkat çekilirken örneğin Washington Post gazetesinin başyazısında ise Dündar-Gül davasının seyri öne çıkartılarak Obama’ya Erdoğan’a randevu vermemesi ve verilirse de demokrasi ve basın özgürlüğü konularında sert mesajların iletilmesi çağrısında bulunuldu. Keza aralarında Türkiye uzmanı isimlerin de olduğu Washington’un önde gelen siyasi analistleri de bir açık mektupla Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan’a basın özgürlüğü, Güneydoğu’da yürütülen operasyonlar ve Türkiye’nin gidişatı çerçevesinde eleştirel sorular yönelttiler.

Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan’ın Salı akşamı bir grup dış politika uzmanıyla yaptığı kapalı toplantıya ilişkin bilgilerde de keza Erdoğan’ın ABD’ye YPG’ye verdiği destek edeniyle yönelttiği eleştirilerin öne çıktığı görüldü. Beyaz Saray’ın Salı günü Obama ile Erdoğan arasında kısa da olsa bir görüşme gerçekleşebileceği yönündeki açıklamasına rağmen Washington’da yaygın olan Türkiye’ye duyulan tepki haberleri Washington’a yerleşik ideolojik Türk gazetecilerin tartışmaya açtığı Brookings konuşması çerçevesinde de sürdü. Brookings konuşması öncesinde bina önünde yaşanan gerilim anları da sosyal medyada olduğu gibi Amerikan basınında yer yer yanıltıcı

SETA DC Washington Raporu 8 of 38 başlıklarla sunuldu. Önceki gün gerçekleşen Obama-Biden görüşmesinin metninde ya da Dışişleri Bakanlığı’nın Erdoğan görüşmesiyle ilgili kısa notunda olduğu gibi Beyaz Saray’ın Perşembe günü gerçekleşen görüşmeyle ilgili açıklamasında da beklenen insan hakları ve demokrasi vurgusunun yer almadığı görüldü.

SETA DC Washington Raporu 9 of 38 İç Politika

Trump Zorlu Bir Hafta Geçirdi Önümüzdeki Salı günü yapılacak Wisconsin eyaletindeki önseçimlerde Cumhuriyetçilerde Ted Cruz Donald Trump’ın 10 puan önünde gözüküyor. Geçtiğimiz hafta boyunca önce Cumhuriyetçi Parti liderliğine partinin nihai adayını destekeleme yönünde verdiği sözden geri adım atan ardından Parti yetkilileriyle görüşen, keza kürtaj yapan kadınların ceza alması gerektiğini söyleyerek liberal kesimin tepkisini çeken ve ardından Güney Kore ile Japonya’nın kendi güvenliklerini sağlamak ve ABD yardımından kurtulmak içim nükleer silahlanmaya gitmesini salık vererek dış politika bilgisini sorguya açan Trump için aşağı trendin başladığı yönündeki ümitler Wisconsin sonucuyla yenilenme ihtimali taşıyor. Cruz ve Trump arasındaki gerginliğe ek olarak kampanyadaki yavaşlama sürecinden negatif etkilendiği belirtilen Trump’ın şimdiye kadar bir çok benzeri dönemeçte beklentileri boşa çıkardığını da hesaba katmak gerekiyor.

Sanders Pes Etmiyor Demokratlarda Bernie Sanders Wisconsin’de Clinton’un 5 puan önünde gözüküyor. Sanders ile Clinton arasındaki gerilimin de son dönemde arttığı ve Clinton tarafının televizyon tartışmalarına son verme tehdidinde bulunduğu bir süreçte Sanders ise özellikle California ve New York’daki kampanyasına hız vererek delege açığını kapatma yönündeki ümitlerini taze tutmaya çalışıyor. Senato’nun tatilde olması nedeniyle kendisine destek veren Senatörlerin saha desteğini yanına alan Clinton ise mesajlarını genel seçimlere dönük seçerek Sanders’ın imajını yarışı boşa uzatan bir siyasetçiye evirmeye çalışıyor. Parti yetkilileri nihayette tüm Demokratların Trump ya da Cruz’un başkanlığını engellemek üzere Clinton’un arkasında toplanacağını savunsalar da yapılan anketlerde Sanders’a destek veren kesimlerin bu yönde büyük bir isteksizliklerinin olduğu ve sandığa gitmekten kaçınabilecekleri de öne çıkıyor.

SETA DC Washington Raporu 10 of 38 Önemli Gelişmeler

● Syrian government forces backed by heavy Russian air support drove the Islamic State out of Palmyra, inflicting what the army called a mortal blow to militants who seized the city last year. Following this victory, Syrian President Assad expressed support for peace talks next month in Geneva but still firmly rejected the opposition’s key demands.

● At the nuclear summit in Washington, President Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping announced that the two countries would sign a climate change accord later in April. The announcement comes amid heightened tensions over China’s presence in the South China Sea.

● The Pentagon confirmed that North Korea has developed a new long-range mobile intercontinental ballistic missile that moves the country closer to the goal of building missiles capable of striking the U.S. mainland with nuclear warheads. On Friday, North Korea held a fresh missile test just hours after U.S. President Barack Obama met East Asian leaders at the nuclear summit in Washington to discuss how to curtail Pyongyang’s nuclear-weapons program.

● Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that Iran will not abandon its ballistic missile program despite growing international pressure following last year’s historic agreement limiting its nuclear program. The U.S. has said that Iran’s nuclear tests are inconsistent with United Nations Security Council Resolution 2231, which endorsed the deal last July.

● China has deployed anti-ship cruise missiles on a disputed South China Sea island, raising new concerns in the Pentagon over Beijing’s growing militarization of the vital strategic waterway. Pentagon spokesman Peter Cook said reports of the test firing has increased worries about Chinese military activities.

SETA DC Washington Raporu 11 of 38 ● The Pentagon has drawn up plans to position American troops, tanks and other armored vehicles full time along NATO’s eastern borders to deter Russian aggression. The Pentagon intends the plans as an escalation of a proposal it announced last year, when it said it was looking at ways to increase U.S. military deterrence in Eastern Europe.

● A suicide bombing in a public park in the Pakistani city of Lahore killed at least 72 people and wounded over 200. A faction of the Pakistani Taliban claimed the attack, stating that they specifically targeted Christians on Easter Sunday.

SETA DC Washington Raporu 12 of 38 Resmi Kurumlar

White House Blog ● The Employment Situation in March ● Everyone Needs Broadband. Now More Low-Income Americans Will Be Able to Afford It. ● More than 5.27 Million Records Released ● Here's Why the U.S. and China Are Signing the Historic Paris Agreement on Earth Day ● President Obama: "How We Can Make Our Vision of a World Without Nuclear Weapons a Reality" ● Asked and Answered: An 11-Year-Old Daughter of An Incarcerated Individual Shares Her Story ● President Obama Has Now Commuted the Sentences of 248 Individuals ● Announcing the 2016 White House Science Fair ● President Obama Is Taking More Steps to Address the Prescription Drug Abuse and Heroin Epidemic ● Honoring the Contributions of Women to the Defense of Our Nation ● Welcoming All Americans to the 138th White House Easter Egg Roll ● West Wing Week 3/25/16 or, “¡Hola, Cuba!” ● Weekly Address: Defeating ISIL ● If You Only Watch One Clip from the Vice President's Supreme Court Speech, Watch This One:

State Department Blog ● President Obama: How We Can Make Our Vision Of A World Without Nuclear Weapons A Reality ● Secretary Kerry Honors Fourteen #WomenofCourage ● ‘Je suis Bruxellois’: Secretary Kerry Visits Brussels, Affirms U.S. Solidarity ● Allegations of Abuse Committed by Peacekeepers in the Central African Republic ● Reflections on the 31st Session of the Human Rights Council

SETA DC Washington Raporu 13 of 38 ● The Central African Republic’s Historic Day ● State Department Welcomes ‘Digital Economy Officers’ to U.S. Embassies ● Amplifying Muslim Women’s Voices Through Storytelling Platforms ● Achieving Total Sanitation in Indonesia ● Women of Courage: An Interview with Dr. Maha Al Muneef ● Know Before You Go: Are You Prepared For Your Spring Break Travel? ● Wonk Tank Brings Student Finalists to Pitch Innovative Policy Ideas at the State Department ● Terrorist Attack in Lahore, Pakistan ● What We’ve Learned from Feed the Future Program Evaluations So Far ● Courage in Guatemala: How One Woman Makes a Difference for Many

Department Of Defense News ● Face of Defense: Lieutenant Credits Navy Success to Junior ROTC Program ● Force of Future Requires Best Talent in America, Carter Tells Students ● Inherent Resolve Official: Brussels Attacks Heighten Need to Defeat ISIL ● U.S., Russian Officials Continue Dialogue on Syrian Airspace ● ’Hack the Pentagon’ Pilot Program Opens for Registration ● DoD Hosts Army Cyber Innovation Challenge Kickoff in Silicon Valley ● Armed Forces Chef of the Year Shares Recipe for Success ● Counter-ISIL Strikes Continue in , Iraq ● Carter Expects Seamless Transition at Special Ops, Central Commands ● Leaders Praise Central Command for Meeting Every Challenge ● Work: Great-Power Competition Aims for Deterrence, Not War ● New Socom Commander Excited, Humbled to Lead Force ● Time Has Come for Enterprise Medicine, Top DoD Health Official Says ● DoD Preparing for Competitive, Demanding Future, Carter Says ● Operation Martillo Still Hammering Away at Illicit Trafficking ● Carter Announces Operation Inherent Resolve Campaign Medal

SETA DC Washington Raporu 14 of 38 ● Eucom Announces European Reassurance Initiative Implementation Plan ● Face of Defense: Sailor Tackles Goals on Football Field ● Carter, Estonia’s Defense Minister Discuss Bilateral Defense Relationship ● Military Strikes Continue Against ISIL Terrorists in Iraq, Syria ● Military Owes Civilian Leaders More Clarity, Dunford Says ● Dunford Discusses Challenges to the Joint Force, Need for Defense Reform ● U.S. Authorizes Ordered Departure of DoD Dependents from ● Army Surgeon General Shares Secrets to Successful Leadership ● Face of Defense: Marine Earns Recognition for Advances in Ground Safety ● Watch Live at 1 p.m. EDT: Pentagon Press Secretary to Brief Reporters ● Coalition Strikes Continue Against ISIL Terrorists in Iraq ● After 40 Years of Service, Army General Reflects on Women in Military ● U.S., Cambodian Forces Close Angkor Sentinel 2016 ● Face of Defense: Best Warrior Competition a Family Affair for One Guardsman ● Military Strikes Hit ISIL Terrorists in Syria, Iraq ● Military Strikes Continue Against ISIL in Syria, Iraq ● Coalition Continues Counter-ISIL Strikes in Syria, Iraq

SETA DC Washington Raporu 15 of 38 Düşünce Kuruluşları Faaliyetleri ve Yayınları

Brookings Institution Events ● Global challenges and Turkey's goals for the year 2023–An address by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of Turkey ● LIVE WEBCAST - The emerging law of 21st century war ● China's offensive in Europe: A conversation with Philippe Le Corre ● Challenges to the future of the EU: A Central European perspective ● Assessing the impact of foreign assistance: The role of evaluation ● Future of the U.S.-ROK-Japan trilateral relationship ● Brookings Live: Reading and math in the Common Core era ● From Pyongyang to Tehran: U.S. and Japanese perspectives on nuclear deals ● Strengthening Student Learning through Innovation & Flexibility Publications ● ISIS' offline propaganda strategy ● Global challenges and Turkey's goals for the year 2023–An address by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of Turkey ● A new deal or a new global partnership for conflict-affected states? ● ISIS' offline propaganda strategy ● Why Russia is accountable if the Syrian ceasefire fails ● Aung San Suu Kyi’s new government: What to look for in Myanmar ● A new deal or a new global partnership for conflict-affected states? ● On the Nuclear Security Summit and Xi Jinping's visit to the U.S. ● Iraq Situation Report, Part III: Kurdistan ● The shifting domestic landscape behind the White House’s Cuba policy ● Future of the U.S.-ROK-Japan trilateral relationship ● Rethinking how we rethink political Islam ● From Pyongyang to Tehran: U.S. and Japanese perspectives on nuclear deals

SETA DC Washington Raporu 16 of 38 ● Iraq Situation Report, Part I: The military campaign against ISIS ● China and North Korea: The long goodbye?

Carnegie Endowment For International Peace Events ● U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew on the Evolution of Sanctions and Lessons for the Future ● From Pyongyang to Tehran: U.S. and Japanese Perspectives on Nuclear Deals Publications ● Suspended Conflict in Syria: Reinterpreting Russia’s Partial Pull-Out ● Great Expectations in Tunisia ● Life and Death in Lahore ● Obama Tests China’s Xi on South China Sea ● Dilemmas of Reform: Policing in Arab Transitions ● Reforming the Arab Security State ● Raja-Mandala: Spying Gracelessly ● Troubles, They Come in Battalions: The Manifold Travails of the Indian Air Force ● The Real Secret of Washington, D.C. ● Why It’s Wrong to Say That the Arab Uprisings Failed ● Burma’s Timid Friends ● Book Review: How to Make Peace With Your Neighbor

International Institute for Strategic Studies Events ● Deterrence at Sea – India’s Evolving Options ● The US and Russia in the Asia-Pacific ● IISS Survival Seminar: The Coming Illiberal Order Publications ● Jan Raudszus: Ankara attacks highlight the return of Kurdish suicide bombings in Turkey

SETA DC Washington Raporu 17 of 38 ● Nigel Inkster: Terrorism, Europe and Brexit ● Ankara Attacks Highlight The Return of Kurdish Suicide Bombings in Turkey

Center for Strategic and International Studies Events ● Schieffer Series: Book Launch of "The Envoy" by Amb. Zalmay Khalilzad ● Working with Pacific Allies and Partners in Amphibious Operations ● Playing to the Edge: American Intelligence in the Age of Terror ● In El Niño's Wake: Examining Africa's Latest Food Crisis ● Meeting Today's Global Security Challenges with General Joseph F. Dunford ● Beyond the Nuclear Security Summits: the Role of Centers of Nuclear Security Excellence ● Press Briefing: 2016 Nuclear Security Summit ● Predicting the Health Consequences of Nuclear Terrorism Scenarios ● Report Roll out: China's "Belt and Road" Initiative and Implications for Global Infrastructure Development Publications ● Global Health Programs and Partnerships ● PacNet #33 - Japan’s security policy under Abe: much ado about almost nothing ● Foreign Minister Aung San Suu Kyi Has China, Myanmar’s Military Watching ● Southeast Asia from Scott Circle: Foreign Minister Aung San Suu Kyi Has China, Myanmar's Military Watching ● Women in Senate Confirmed Department of Defense PAS Positions Since 1947 ● Defense Department PAS Positions ● The Evening CSIS: Losing Big Mo, ISIS Praise, Daniel Lanois & More ● PacNet #32 - How China sees THAAD ● Tracking Promises ● Polio in Ukraine ● The Evening CSIS: Capitol Shooting, Easter Bombing, Middle of the Road & More

SETA DC Washington Raporu 18 of 38 ● The Urgent Need to Prove the European Union Relevant on Counterterrorism ● Severe, Climate Change-driven Wheat Fungus Found in Bangladesh, Highlighting Need for Risk Management Programs ● Global Infrastructure Development ● President Xi Jinping’s "Belt and Road" Initiative ● Global Economics Monthly: On Stranger Tides: China's Economic Decisionmaking One Year On

Council on Foreign Relations Events ● Public Opinion and the 2016 Election ● Power Profile: Bashar al-Assad ● Colombia and FARC: Prospects for Peace ● The Rise of Violent Extremism in Europe ● The Rise of Violent Extremism in Europe Publications ● Warren Buffett Is Half Right ● The World Next Week: March 31, 2016 ● Objectives and Future Direction for Rebalance Economic Policies ● CFR Resources on the 2016 Nuclear Security Summit ● Will China Change its North Korea Policy? ● The Trump-Sanders China Syndrome ● Colombia and FARC: Prospects for Peace ● Springtime in D.C. Means Mosquitoes — and Zika ● Preparing for Change ● The Rise of Violent Extremism in Europe ● ‘How Happy Is the One Who Says, I Am a Turk!’ ● Instead of Cutting Waste, Nigeria Racks Up Debt to Replace Oil Revenues ● Nuclear Arms Control for the 21st Century

SETA DC Washington Raporu 19 of 38 ● Needs to Change Course ● Nuclear Arms Control for the 21st Century ● It Looks as If Boris Has Hired the Wrong Brexit Adviser ● Securing a Democratic Future for Myanmar

Foreign Policy Middle East Blog Publications ● Exclusive: Brookings Threatened To Cancel Speech by Turkish Leader ● How I Accidentally Became a Lobbyist for Azerbaijan ● ‘Wives of Boko Haram’ ● Erdogan: Washington’s Closest Allies in Fight Against Islamic State Are Just as Bad as the Islamic State ● Chaos Outside of Turkish President Erdogan’s Washington Speech ● Go North, Young Man, Go North! ● Is the International Community Out of Ideas to Combat Terrorism? ● The War on ISIS Now Comes With Medals ● The Liberation of Mosul Has Begun ● Congo’s Soccer Players Get Cars. Its Rape Victims Get Nothing. ● Wants to Buy Dozens of U.S. Warplanes. Why Won’t Washington Sell Them? ● Watch: ‘Erdowie, Erdowo, Erdogan’ — The Video That Made Turkey Mad Enough to Summon the German Ambassador ● Are men qualified to operate unmanned vehicles, especially in low-intensity ops? ● Who Would Bibi Vote for? ● Hillary Clinton, Neocon? ● Just Say No to Another Failed State in Africa ● The Islamic State Didn’t Do As Much Damage to Palmyra As We Feared ● Lahore Blast Caps Deadly Week, From Asia to Europe

SETA DC Washington Raporu 20 of 38 Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars Events ● A Conversation with Ambassador Itamar Rabinovich ● U.S.-Mexico Economic Cooperation for a Competitive Region: A Conversation with Mexican Secretary of Economy Ildefonso Guajardo ● Protection and Prosperity: A New Environmental Research Agenda for a Changing World ● Rousseff’s Tenure Nears the End ● Britain’s Europe Question: Views from the UK and the Continent ● USAID's Pioneering Work in Urban Development ● Softwood, Hard Choices: The 2006 Softwood Lumber Agreement and What it Means in 2016 ● The Nuclear Summit and Beyond: Progress or Regress? ● France 1940: Defending the Republic Publications ● Terror in Lahore: Pakistan’s Toughest Test ● Ten Principles of Citizen Science in Chinese ● Mexico and the Nuclear Summit: Can Peña Nieto Seize the Opportunity? ● MENA Women News Brief ● The Impact of Violence on Mexico’s Economy ● FBI needs to offer Apple an olive branch ● When Will the West Care About Terrorism in Pakistan? ● How Our Unhealthy Cybersecurity Infrastructure Is Hurting Biotechnology ● Russia is Waking Up to the Economic Reality, Not to the Political One ● Terror in Lahore: Pakistan’s Toughest Test ● India's Place in the Sun: The International Solar Alliance ● Help Improve Our Outreach and Publications ● Washington, D.C.: The Anxious City ● Islamist Parties Condemn Brussels Attacks

SETA DC Washington Raporu 21 of 38 United States Institute of Peace Events ● Partnership with Nigeria: the U.S. View Publications ● In Nigeria, U.S. Seeks a Way Home for Boko Haram Defectors ● Africa Peacekeeping: Lessons from a Ghanaian Commander

New America Events ● American Amnesia ● The Index Card ● American Amnesia Dc Launch ● Whiter Payday Loans? ● The Future of College Assessment Publications ● Can Malaysia Be Saved? ● How Egg Freezing Became A Matter Of National Security ● Highlighting Best Practices in Transparency Reporting ● Learning From Brussels: Rethinking Airport Security ● To Change Poor Students’ Perceptions, Change Their Realities ● "I Have to Vote” ● Counterterrorism-Cybersecurity Strategy Over Soundbites ● The Netflix for Young Readers ● "Assment" Doesn’t Have to Be a Dirty Word ● Asset Building News Week, March 28-April 1 ● Zero-Rating Plans Are a Serious Threat to the Open Internet

SETA DC Washington Raporu 22 of 38 Atlantic Council Events ● Briefing on Post-Election Niger ● Post-COP21 Fossil Fuel Industry Outlook ● Breakfast Roundtable in Honor of The President of the Gabonese Republic ● "Solved?": Investigating Boris Nemtsov’s Murder Publications ● Smart Homes and the Internet of Things ● Climate Change and US National Security: Past, Present, Future

German Marshall Fund of the United States Event ● Exclusive Media Round Table with Poland's President Duda Publications ● Enhanced Policy Dialogue of Professionals in Kosovo and Serbia Program ● German and European Defense Policy - Christian Moelling Interview with Deutsche Welle ● Defending a Fraying Order: The Imperative of Closer U.S.-Europe-Japan Cooperation ● The Awakening of Societies in Turkey and Ukraine: How Germany and Poland Can Shape European Responses ● Civic Engagement Principles for Transatlanic Cities: Inspiration from the Dialogues for Change Initiative 2013-2015 ● Europe Must Adapt to a Dangerous World ● 5 Ideas for a More Resilient, Inclusive Brussels ● A Tale of Two Terrorist Attacks in Brussels and Ankara

RAND Corporation Events ● Where Is Iran Headed?

SETA DC Washington Raporu 23 of 38 Publications ● Impact of Iran Nuclear Deal Discussed at RAND Event ● How Russia Undermines Nuclear Security ● New Research Finds Counter-Terrorism TACTICS for European Cities ● Do Significant Terrorist Attacks Increase the Risk of Further Attacks? Initial Observations from a Statistical Analysis of Terrorist Attacks in the United States and Europe from 1970 to 2013 ● Inciting Peace: Elevating Alternatives to ISIL's Message ● Tunisia's Role in Fight Against Terrorism Discussed at RAND Conference ● Beijing Ups the Ante in South China Sea Dispute with HQ-9 Deployment

The Washington Institute for Near East Policy Publications ● U.S. Military Engagement in the Broader Middle East ● Rethinking How We Rethink Political Islam ● Terror in Europe: Combating Foreign Fighters and Homegrown Networks ● A New Iran for a New Middle East: Aligning Discourse and Behavior ● The Liberation of Mosul Has Begun ● Saudi Snub at the Nuclear Summit? ● Strong Team Faces High Hurdles ● Growing Stress on Jordan ● The Syrian Kurds: Whose Ally? ● Four Things to Watch During Turkish President Erdogan's Visit to Washington ● Theology in Foreign Policy: ISIS in Context ● Natural Gas Judgement Casts Shadow Over Israel's Energy Plans ● Is Turkey Coming in from the Cold in Europe? ● My Journey Through Brussels' Terrorist Safe Haven

SETA DC Washington Raporu 24 of 38 Center for New American Security Events ● Securing Tomorrow: A Conversation with Bob Work and David Ignatius ● U.S. Policy in South and Central Asia: A Conversation with The Honorable Nisha Biswal Publications ● Dr. Mira Rapp-Hooper before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission ● Needs Assessment: Veterans in the Dallas-Fort Worth Region

The Middle East Institute Events ● Regional Crisis and the War on ISIS Publications ● MEI Remembers Zaha Hadid (1950-2016) ● Othello—a Timely Reminder on Racism and Islamophobia

SETA DC Washington Raporu 25 of 38 Kamuoyu Yoklamaları

Pew Research Center ● Republicans skeptical their party would unite behind Trump ● Americans’ views of job availability among most positive in last 15 years ● Republicans, especially Trump supporters, see free trade deals as bad for U.S. ● 10 demographic trends that are shaping the U.S. and the world ● Prior to Lahore bombing, Pakistanis were critical of Taliban and other extremist groups ● 6 facts about how Americans and Chinese see each other ● Israeli Jews from the former Soviet Union are more secular, less religiously observant ● Changing a social media profile picture is one way to express support or solidarity ● Views of NATO and its role are mixed in U.S., other member nations

Gallup Polls ● Democrats Increasing Their Edge in U.S. Party Affiliation ● Seven in 10 Women Have Unfavorable Opinion of Trump ● Clinton Preferred for Experience; Sanders, for Care ● Americans’ Views of Trump, Cruz at New Lows in March ● Opposition to Fracking Mounts in the U.S. ● Nebraskans View Early Care as Critical to Children’s Success ● Trump and Clinton Supporters Lead in Enthusiasm ● Americans Believe 2015 Was Record-Warm, but Split on Why ● Gallup Vault: Americans Bought Into NATO From the Get-Go ● U.S. Gallup Good Jobs Rate 44.4% in March 2016

● State of the States

● U.S. Economic Confidence Index Dips to -13

● Managing Employee Risk Requires a Culture of Compliance ● Gallup's Coverage of the 2016 Presidential Election

SETA DC Washington Raporu 26 of 38 ● The Race to Become the Best State for Babies

● U.S. Economic Confidence Index Dips to -13

● Managing Employee Risk Requires a Culture of Compliance ● The Race to Become the Best State for Babies

Rasmussen Reports ● Obama’s Full-Month Approval Index Reaches Three-Year High ● Trump Change: Is ‘The Donald’ Losing His ‘Big Mo’? ● Lock Out the Establishment in Cleveland! by Patrick J. Buchanan ● Will Britain Leave or Remain in the European Union? By Michael Barone ● Support for State Secession Holds Steady ● Americans Reject Plans to Pay Killers Not to Kill ● Superdelegates, Yes; Trump, No ● The Electoral College: The Only Thing That Matters By Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley ● Most Don't Blame Cops for Shooting Incidents ● Are Candidates' Wives Key to a Campaign? ● King of the GOP vs. King of Bureaucracy By Charles Hurt ● Nuclear Jihad: The Threats Are Inside Our Tent By Michelle Malkin ● Only 31% of GOP Voters Care If Failed Hopefuls Support Nominee ● A Better Choice by John Stossel ● Most Say They Pay Too Much in Taxes ● Voters Want Spending Cuts But Don’t Expect Any ● Is Trump Right About NATO? by Patrick J. Buchanan ● Americans Are Filing Their Taxes At A Record Pace ● Supreme Hypocrisy By Thomas Sowell ● Does Social Connectedness Explain Trump's Appeal? By Michael Barone ● Should Texting While Walking Be Against the Law?

SETA DC Washington Raporu 27 of 38 ● 28% Say U.S. Heading in Right Direction ● Voters See ISIS As Serious, Long-Term Threat ● Most Don’t Want U.S. Promoting Democracy In Islamic World ● What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week's Key Polls

SETA DC Washington Raporu 28 of 38 Toplantı Raporları

The Syrian Kurds: Whose Ally? Location/Sponsor: Washington Institute for Near East Policy Date/Time: March 22, 2016, 12:00 PM - 2:15 PM Your Name: Ege Partal, Intern

Speakers: Soner Cagaptay, Beyer Family Fellow, Director of the Turkish Research Program, The Washington Institute; David Pollock, Kaufman Fellow, The Washington Institute; Ambassador James F. Jeffrey, Philip Solondz Distinguished fellow, The Washington Institute; Andrew J. Tabler, Moderator, Martin J. Gross Fellow, Program on Arab Politics, The Washington Institute

Atmosphere: The slightly half of the conference room at the Washington Institute was full. The panel started later than the listed time. There was a large Turkish presence in the audience. The audience was provided with a sheet explaining the acronyms for Kurdish groups, including KCK, HDP, PKK, PYD, YPG, YPJ, PJAK, etc.

Important Points: Andrew Tabler made the opening remarks, briefly mentioning that the PYD is Washington’s tactical ally whereas Ankara sees them differently. He understands that Turkey has a long border with Syria, and the second largest army in the region, making Ankara a very important ally for the United States. Bringing up that the PYD is taking over territory in the region while the Iraqi Kurds and PKK are clashing as adversaries, he asked the panelists, “where is this going?”

Soner Cagaptay was the first speaker. He identified three headlines for his approach to the Kurdish situation, “The Kurdish political landscape, what the U.S. policy currently is, and what the U.S. policy ought to be.” On the landscape topic, Cagaptay stated that Kurdish language is different in Syria, Iraq, and Turkey to the extent that they would not be able to understand each

SETA DC Washington Raporu 29 of 38 other. The difference between Kurdish dialects is more than the difference between Portuguese and Spanish. Cagaptay uses this distinction to show that the situation in the region is severely complex. Cagaptay thinks Turkey has good relations with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). This good relation was initiated by the North Iraqi Kurds, and was driven by economic interests.

Cagaptay believes the U.S. relations with the PYD is in a stage of detente, as the PYD is generally designated an area, mainly to the East of Euphrates. An independent Russia-supported Rojova would be in Russia’s favor, according to Cagaptay. He thinks this would mean a permanent buffer zone for Russia against Turkey’s Erdogan as well as a lever against Assad, who the Russians recently have not approached as openly as in the past half decade due to his hardliner approach. Cagaptay believes the plane incident with Turkey and Russia is a milestone, after which Turkey started seeing Russia as a direct threat. Cagaptay believes the PYD is turning into a security concern within the region, with fears of it emerging as “Turkey’s ” if the Russia-PYD relations are to remain.

Cagaptay believes the KRG example is significant for Turkey, and hopes that it would “be repeated in Syria.” The U.S. benefits from KRG-Turkey cooperation, and the U.S. could encourage peace with the PKK, which would eventually mean better Turkish-PYD relations. Cagaptay also believes the U.S. could prompt KDP to break PYD from PKK, to have the Northern Iraqi model be applicable in Northern Syria.

Though Cagaptay wishes the PYD would separate from the PKK and have a more KRG-like moderate stance, he considers it as a very difficult scenario. He believes it was unrealistic for the PKK to think that taking over cities in eastern Turkey, like Kobane, would work. Cagaptay stated “Turkey is a strong state, and Kurds are a divided audience” to explain why the PKK was unable to create “safe havens” in eastern Turkey. In the most recent Turkish elections, the People’s Democracy Party (HDP) used conservative candidates in the eastern provinces and more liberal Turkish candidates in the West to persuade liberal Turks and conservative Kurds who would otherwise not vote for the HDP. Cagaptay believes that with the most recent involvement of the

SETA DC Washington Raporu 30 of 38 PKK in the region, liberal Turks in the West and conservative Kurds in the East are disappointed with the HDP.

Last, Cagaptay sees the presidential referendum to be critical in defining Turkish political trends. The Turkish leadership is running a conservative right-wing based political campaign for the presidential referendum, and the actions of the PKK aid this campaign. Both the PYD and Turkey are needed for the U.S. interests in the region. Pointing at a Syrian conflict map projected on screens, he stated that the U.S.-PYD cooperation against the ISIS cannot be successful unless Turkey allows it.

David Pollock was the next speaker, who had some questionable remarks. Pollock agreed with Cagaptay that nurturing a relationship with the KRG is critical in the stability of the region. He reminded the audience that the KRG and Turkey used to be enemies, yet they emerged as partners, so it is possible for such adversaries to redefine the relationship. However, he disagrees with Cagaptay in the sense that “The PYD is not under the PKK.” The PKK and PYD have separate goals and aspirations, and he thinks this separate trend occurred after the PYD achieved a de-facto autonomy in Northern Syria.

Pollock identified July 2012 as a very important date. He said he was in Northern Syria at this date, when the PYD decided, with Barzani’s encouragement, that “it is no longer an enemy of Turkey.” Pollock said he met with Turkish National Intelligence Agency (MIT) experts, and heard them mention that “the PYD smuggles guns and drugs.” He thinks in reality, these drugs and weapons are mostly smuggled through the corridor to Azez. Pollock was bold enough to say that “the PYD is Turkey’s protector.”

Pollock declined all claims about the PYD being an enemy of Syrian Arabs. He thinks that the PYD has Syrian Arabs fighting under its forces, and the very idea of an “autonomous Kurdistan” is specifically known to be “not just for the Kurds.” Pollock said the PYD protects the minorities in the region, and renounced all claims that “the PYD is not against Assad.” He added that Russia is not the PYD’s first choice for an ally and finished by reminding that the PKK and the PYD are very much different, as the Syrian and Turkish Kurds are very “distant” from one

SETA DC Washington Raporu 31 of 38 another. He also thinks the U.S. policy moved “quickly and successfully towards fighting the ISIS.”

Ambassador James Jeffrey thinks that the situation looks different from Ankara and Washington. He draws attention to the necessity of questioning “the U.S. game plan since 1947.” Separately, Ambassador Jeffrey believes President Obama has taken a more serious stance against ISIS after the San Bernardino and Paris attacks. However, the problem is that he is not willing to deploy any soldiers to the region. According to Ambassador Jeffrey, ISIS has to be defeated militarily, and while air strikes are a good assisting method, the U.S. needs to find ground troops to actively fight ISIS.

Ambassador Jeffrey argued that Turkey poses a real problem in the region with the PYD. He does not understand “Erdogan’s stance with the PYD,” and said, “I do get his [problem] with the PKK, he needed to create chaos and economic fears for people… for elections.” Jeffrey also thinks that “people did not give him (Erdogan) the chance to become the next Ottoman Emperor.” Jeffrey believes “Erdogan makes the PKK and the PYD even”, despite the “U.S. need for the PYD in the region.” The Ambassador believes that there is no proof that the PYD supports the PKK in Turkey. He stated “if you are a Turk, you are afraid that your country will be torn apart by civil war… Erdogan plays on that.”

The first question came from the moderator, asking “what kind of PYD change is needed for Turks to cooperate with the PYD?” Pollock answered that the PYD already asked for peace; “they want to make peace with Turkey. Turkey does not see that.” Cagaptay thinks the U.S. problem with the PYD is the “PYD-Assad friendship.” The PYD being co-belligerent with Assad makes it harder for the U.S. to cooperate. There is also overlap with the PYD and the PKK, according to Cagaptay, as they have crossover in members and they all fall under the umbrella of the KCK. Lastly, Cagaptay believes the “Kobane effect” of combined cooperation makes it harder for them to be considered separate entities. David Pollock disagreed strongly, stating “it is just wrong, PYD is not a co-belligerent.” He thinks “PYD has their own agenda.” He reminded that even though the PYD did not directly fight the Assad regime, they took over lands that the

SETA DC Washington Raporu 32 of 38 Assad regime held. He thinks the actions of individual fighters do not represent the position of theparties.

Cagaptay said he wishes that “one day the PKK and the PYD are separate from one another.” He said he travelled to Syria, and saw more pictures of Ocalan than anywhere in the world. The U.S. priority is not Assad, according to Cagaptay, and he said, “the PYD took over Kobane and, thanks, kicked ISIS out. Not thanks, cleansed Arabs and Turkmens.” Cagaptay believes that Russia wants a united PYD territory in Syria but “the PYD’s utility is limited” because even if the PYD takes out Raqqa, it will be seen as an “occupier” because “they (PYD soldiers) are not Arabs.”

The moderator asked about the PYD clashes with moderate groups backed by the U.S., and how that plays into its role in Northern Syria. Pollock acknowledged “limited clashes” between the PYD and the U.S. supported groups in Syria and added, “ethnic cleansing is understandable in civil war.” At this point, Cagaptay intervened angrily, firmly stating that “no ethnic cleansing is understandable.” Pollock responded by saying that the numbers are so small that they do not impact the overall calculation.

Burcu Tuncer, Counselor at the Turkish Embassy, stated that “based on real facts, the PYD is the Syrian affiliate of the PKK.” She said the Ankara attacker was trained in the PYD camps, asking, “is the PYD campaign supported by the U.S.?” James Jeffrey thinks there is a falsified visioning of the U.S. as a “British-like imperial power.” Jeffrey thinks having ties with a terrorist group is “tricky,” asking “what if the organization is a liberation movement?” Jeffrey also said that “the HDP has ties with the PKK, but that does not mean they are terrorists.”

Robert Satloff, executive director of The Washington Institute, asked, “assuming there is 80% ties with the PYD and the PKK, what stops the 20%? What should the U.S. do to shift the Turkish position?” Pollock responded, saying he was with recently. According to Pollock, Muslim believes “they did what they can.” Pollock reminded the audience that “Turks already talked to the PYD.” He believes that Turkey having conversations with the PYD leaders

SETA DC Washington Raporu 33 of 38 before the current emergence of the group in Syria somehow legitimizes the PYD as a sovereign group.

Overall Impression: Pollock expressed some fairly radical opinions at the event. Soner Cagaptay tried opposing him, at times directly intervening, but David Pollock’s views were too sharp to be changed. Overall, it was a heated discussion that did not offer any solutions to the recent developments, but rather further polarized the different opinions.

SETA DC Washington Raporu 34 of 38 The Situation in Iraqi Kurdistan: An Update Location/Sponsor: U.S. House of Representatives, Rayburn House Office Building Date/Time: March 23, 2016, 12:00 PM - 1:30 PM Your Name: Ege Partal, Intern

Speakers: Dr. Steven Cook, Eni Enrico Mattei Senior Fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies, Council on Foreign Relations; Dr. Günes Murat Tezcür, Jalal Talabani Chair of Kurdish Political Studies, University of Central Florida; Dr. Nahro Zagros, Vice President of Soran University, Iraqi Kurdistan

Atmosphere: The lunch room at the Rayburn office building was almost full. Round tables were placed for the audience, and the speakers were at the podium. The audience had people coming in groups, mostly appeared to be Iraqi Kurds. Individuals from Congressional Representatives’ staff were also present.

Important Points: Murat Tezcur believes the economic situation poses long term challenges for Northern Iraq and is certainly an important factor while considering the independence issue. He thinks “the economic issue is a bigger challenge than ISIS.” According to Tezcur, “Kurdistan is expanding but also shrinking.” Low oil prices are a huge burden for the country’s economy, and the economic burden of hosting refugees adds to that. There are also problems with the revenue transfer from Baghdad to Northern Iraq. The economic problem surfaces, according to Tezcur personal observations in his trips, with vast amounts of uncomplete construction sites in Northern Iraq. In addition, the official status of Northern Iraq as a “sub-state” prevents getting aid from the World Bank and the IMF. In this respect, independence would help Northern Iraq to claim its economic rights freely.

SETA DC Washington Raporu 35 of 38 Tezcur believes that there are “lots of Shia militia and ISIS” in Northern Iraq within the scope of a “frozen conflict.” A referendum could create problems by sparking this frozen conflict into a hot one. He adds that “Baghdad will not let Kurds to get Kirkuk.” Hence, it is safe to assume that the tension between Iraqi Kurds and Baghdad’s administration revolves around the question of Kirkuk. Tezcur thinks that the Iraqi Kurds “achieved a lot” and their situation today would be “unexpected twenty years ago.” However, Northern Iraq has a good young educated population that is currently disappointed as they do not find jobs and opportunities that match their education..

Tezcur believes that the Iraqi Kurds have a terrible relationship with the PYD and that the Turkey-KRG alliance is key for American foreign policy in the Middle East. He states, “KDP- PKK has a lot of conflicts,” alluding to the 2015 summer attack on the oil pipeline that is essential for Erbil’s export of oil. He also thinks that the KRG wishes to export natural gas to Turkey, and the PKK poses a challenge for this. Tezcur concluded by reminding the audience that independence is a dream for the KRG, but both Iran and Iraq oppose Kurdish independence. He thinks Iraqi Kurds need more economic tools far more than guns.

Dr. Kamal Odisho Kolo was also one of the speakers, though he was not initially listed. He talked about the minorities in Iraq, mentioning that the Christians in Iraq had been there for a long time. He thinks both Sunni and Shia fighters attacked Christians in Basra and identifies the Yazidi situation as a genocide. Kolo then focused on the term “genocide” and said this is the third genocide against Christians in the region, following the so-called “Armenian genocide and Iraqi army’s massacre of 600 people in 1953.” He gave numbers, mentioning of 2 million Iraqi Christians previously in the region, only 400,000 remain. Kolo believes an independent Kurdistan in Northern Iraq would help protect these minorities.

Steven Cook discussed “what is happening in Washington with respect to the KRG.” He thinks that the “Kurds do not have their house in order.” He is “not sure how much more Syria can be destabilized” and considers Washington accepting the KRG’s independence as an opportunity. Speaking on Washington-KRG relations, Cook stated that the “U.S. Central Command prefers working with the Kurds” in the regional issues, and “Iraq is an irrelevant state.” He also sees that

SETA DC Washington Raporu 36 of 38 the KRG has “profound trust with Turks” and there is “an illicit Turkish support” to KRG against the PKK.

Cook firmly stated, “the U.S. should let the Kurdish state to emerge.” In his view, Ankara has already accepted the KRG’s independence, and the Ankara-KRG partnership could ultimately help the U.S. interests. He took a direct tone, urging the audience to “drop all the romance of Kurds being Western-oriented, fighting for women’s rights, etc. Kurds are still an important ally.”

Speaking on the economic and political recognition issues, Cook believes that “Washington needs to understand that Kurds will always look at the U.S.” He sees Baghdad being “increasingly irrelevant.” He thinks that the U.S. needs to “get over that Turks are an ally and will always be against Kurdish independence.”

Nahro Zagros was the last speaker, expressing his belief that Iraq is divided, and regional powers have emerged after the rise of ISIS. In the Middle East, Turkey and Iran have become the “main forces.” He thinks Iran is partially running Iraq with its Shia-militia in order to recreate Iraq the way it used to be before American intervention, “by creating a dictator.” Zagros thinks that Iran is trying defeat all of its enemies, and “does not care about genocide.” Federalism in Iraq was tried, but it failed, according to Zagros. He thinks “international forces will come to realistic conclusions.” He does not see an end to the problem, stating, “after ISIS, there is going to be another force created.”

Zagros believes “Kurds tried everything.” Previously, both federalism and cohabitation did not work. He sees the Northern Iraqi economic share to be detached from Baghdad and firmly believes the Kurdish leadership might declare independence without holding a referendum. He thinks that they have “nothing to lose” and the Kurds are a “reliable ally.”

Responding to a question on the Turkish approach to an independent KRG, Dr. Tezcur thinks the government in Turkey is open to Kurdish independence. Steve Cook said he “does not think it will be an issue for Turkey.” He thinks the Gulf States would also like the idea of an “independent Kurdistan.”

SETA DC Washington Raporu 37 of 38 I asked a question regarding the economic hardships that Northern Iraq faces, and asked if the KRG has the necessary economic tools and infrastructure in place to utilize an independent government structure. I elaborated by mentioning that there is a lack of certain sectors in Northern Iraq, especially the banking sector, and considering the hot conflicts in the region, it could be harder to convince Western investors to invest. Dr. Tezcur said he thinks the Turkish foreign investment is in place in Erbil but the current oil crisis stopped further investments. Steve Cook said that Northern Iraq is a viable partner for the U.S., and the U.S. will help them. He thinks the KRG needs foreign aid and “we will give it.” Kolo believes Northern Iraq’s “infrastructure is great” and “all we need is political recognition. We are ready to go.”

Overall Impressions:

The speakers were fairly one sided. All of them believed in the need for an independent Northern Iraq, but had different reasonings for it. The audience could have benefitted if a speaker presented the potential negative implications of an independent Northern Iraq, to offer a broader picture scenario. Overall, the event served as more of a marketing mechanism for Northern Iraq to “make their voices heard” at the U.S. Congress.

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