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Retail Market Snapshot MENA RETAIL MARKET SNAPSHOT 2013 Accelerating success. RETAIL MARKET SNAPSHOT | 2013 | MENA | INTRODUCTION INTRODUCTION • The MENA region is categorised by two very diversified groups in 482 offices in terms of income and population; 62 countries on o The Arabian Gulf (GCC) countries, enjoy some of the highest per 6 continents capita levels in the world with small population bases, and supported by the registered growth in their oil-based economies. United States: 140 Canada: 42 o Conversely, there are other neighbouring countries in the region, Latin America: 20 some of which have undergone recent regime change, that are Asia Pacific: 195 characterised by a large population base, low GDP per capita and EMEA: 85 significant segments of the population living below the poverty line. • $2.0 billion in revenue • In this report, we take a quick snapshot of the following retail markets; • More than 13,500 employees • 5,100 brokers o Dubai. • $71 billion in transaction volume across more than 78,000 sale and lease transactions o Abu Dhabi. • 1.1 billion square feet under management o Cairo. SERVICES OFFERED BY COLLIERS o Muscat. INTERNATIONAL o Doha. • Retail Development Consultancy. • Retail Zoning & Mix Strategy. o Riyadh. • Tenant Coordination. o Jeddah. • Retail Leasing Services. • These markets have been acknowledged as the most active and • Property Management. promising across the region, in accordance with the existing dynamics pertaining to the Retail Demand Drivers. • Project Management. • Strategic & Business Planning. RETAIL DEMAND DRIVERS • Economic Impact Studies. The profitability of any retail offering is highly dependant on the level • • Market & Competitive Studies. of demand for retail space in the targeted market. • Highest & Best Use (HBU) Studies. • By “demand”, we mean the amount of retail space required to absorb retailer’s space requirements and fulfil the needs of customers within • Market & Financial Feasibility Studies. the targeted market. • Financial Modelling. • The spending potential and trends of the population residing within the vicinity of the catchment areas (Primary, Secondary and Tertiary), typically determine the majority of the demand for local retail goods and services. • This demand can be modelled using various quantitative and qualitative methodologies, such as; For further information please contact: o Population. Stuart J. Gissing o Income Levels. Regional Director | Middle East Stuart.Gissing@Colliers.com o Consumer Confidence. Mansoor Ahmed MAS, MSc o Retail Trends & Product Penetration. Director | Development Solutions Mansoor.Ahmed@Colliers.com o Investment Climate. Duncan Gray, BSc (Hons) MRICS MRTPI o Existing Product. Director | Head of Retail (MENA) Duncan.Gray@Colliers.com • Apart from these local demand drivers, residents of others areas also compose and contribute towards the demand for retail in the any targeted market. Colliers International P.O. Box 71591 | Dubai | UAE Colliers International Retail Snapshot provides a brief look at the Main: +971 4 453 7400 key dynamics impacting the major retail markets within the MENA region and the pertinent future outlook. 2 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | WWW.COLLIERS.COM RETAIL MARKET SNAPSHOT | 2013 | MENA | RETAIL MARKET Dubai MARKET OVERVIEW • Over the past decade, developers and retailers have aligned their growth with the concurrent expansion of the tourism market which saw the introduction of multiple regional and super-regional developments. As Dubai continues to deepen its tourism offer, we are witnessing a shift in the retail landscape to include new formats of shopping, entertainment and dining destinations. • The new formats include “Single Category Destinations” co-locating in nodes or sub-districts adjacent to established retailing centres. • The retail market in Dubai is expected to witness a continuation of new global brand penetration. SUPPLY • The Dubai retail market is dominated by Super Regional malls, representing 68% of the existing supply within the market, whilst new developments have been focused on smaller formats such as community retail. Retail Supply in Dubai Dubai’s supply continues to be heavily focused on larger format destination shopping 3,500,000 14% • malls 3,000,000 12% • As of end of 2013 Dubai’s cumulative shopping mall supply exceeded 2.5 million m² 10% of GLA, achieving an increase of 2% compared to 2012 supply figures, with the 2,500,000 opening of City Walk and the expansion of Al Ghurair Centre. 8% (m2) 2,000,000 Distribution of Shopping Malls in Dubai by Size - Current 6% GLA 1,500,000 4% 1,000,000 2% 500,000 0% - -2% 2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 Retail Supply Growth (%) Proposed Source: Colliers International Retail Space Distribution in Dubai Source: Colliers International • Key upcoming shopping malls include The Pointe at Palm Jumeirah Crescent, The Beach at JBR, and the expansion of Dubai Mall, collectively expected to increase the existing supply by approximately 369,000 m² GLA by the end of 2015. • Provided developer construction timelines are met, cumulative shopping mall supply is estimated to reach 2.8 million m² GLA by 2014, an increase of 12% compared to 2013. Source: Colliers International 3 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | WWW.COLLIERS.COM RETAIL MARKET SNAPSHOT | 2013 | MENA | RETAIL MARKET Dubai Contd.. Retail Demand in Dubai DEMAND 3,000,000 • Total retail sales in UAE reached an estimated US$ 33.59 Billion in 2013; achieving an increase of 8.3% compared to 2012. Although a breakdown for Dubai was not made available, it is Colliers view that the growth rate of Dubai exceeds that of the 2,500,000 UAE. • MasterCard Worldwide Index of Consumer Confidence shows that consumer 2,000,000 confidence in the UAE is currently at 94.7 basis points which is considered as “extremely optimistic”. 1,500,000 • In Dubai, demand for shopping mall space is primarily dependant on two factors: GLA (m2) GLA 1,000,000 - Population - Tourism • Apart from these two factors, demand for retail space is also influenced by income 500,000 levels, consumer confidence, spending patterns and the overall investment climate present in the market. - • The market, based on the existing population in the city, can sustain up to 2 million 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2012 m² (GLA) Gross Leasable Area, increasing by 5% compared to 2012. Source: Colliers International • Repeat visitations in Dubai’s malls is higher than other international benchmarks due to several factors including climate and cultural considerations. PRICING Size of Retail Sales in the UAE 60 15% • The success enjoyed by retail malls in Dubai is reflected in the relatively high rental levels commanded by established malls, as compared to secondary malls. 50 10% • Annual rents for large anchor tenants average USD 150 - USD 250 per m², whilst average rates for line stores range between USD 490 - USD 2,700 per m² per annum, the higher end of these ranges being achieved by primary malls. 40 5% OUTLOOK 30 0% • Although the retail sector remains buoyant; global benchmarking highlights an oversupply. However, this does not consider the significant contribution of tourism Percent (%) Percent USD (Billion) USD 20 -5% inflows. • Consequently, Colliers research analysis suggests that shopping malls that are 10 -10% repositioning and certain new entrants are offering varying levels of tenants incentives and lease structures, recognizing retailers operational carrying cost. 0 -15% • Over the short-medium term, we expect a suppression of base rates on non-primary 2011 2010 retail destinations due to the supply-demand gap along with additional supply coming 2016f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2017f 2012e online in 2014. Retail Sales Retail Sales (% of GDP) • With the existing trend within the market, it is imminent that developers will continue to further explore new retail formats thus perpetuating the evolving Dubai retail Source: BMI 2013, Colliers International landscape. 4 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | WWW.COLLIERS.COM RETAIL MARKET SNAPSHOT | 2013 | MENA | RETAIL MARKET Abu Dhabi MARKET OVERVIEW • Over the past 12 years Abu Dhabi has seen a marked change in its retail landscape, moving from a market with no larger format, Regional/Super-Regional developments to one with successful primary grade retail projects. • Analysis of the Abu Dhabi’s retail market reveals that the majority of retail space in Abu Dhabi currently consists of non-mall supply. Super regional malls account for only 8% of total supply, while regional malls contribute 21% to total supply, in accordance with the Urban Planning Council (UPC) classifications. SUPPLY • Retail supply in Abu Dhabi is grouped under five broad categories (based on GLA and support population) by UPC; Super Regional, Regional, Community, Neighborhood and Convenience offering. Retail supply outside these categories is classified as “non mall” supply. Retail Supply in Abu Dhabi • The growth in supply over the past 5 years has been rapid, with the completion of 1,600,000 55% various new malls such as Mushrif Mall and Dalma Mall and as well as the expansions carried out by existing malls such as Al Wahda Mall’s expansion, which 1,400,000 increased GLA from 56,000m2 to 92,900m2. 45% 1,200,000 • As of end of 2013 Abu Dhabi’s cumulative shopping mall supply exceeded 921,400 35% m² of GLA, and is likely to reach 1.33 million m² GLA by the end of 2014. 1,000,000 • When analysing the distribution of existing retail supply in Abu Dhabi, current 800,000 25% regional and super regional retail space (over 30,000 m² GLA as per UPC GLA (m2) GLA 600,000
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