Northeast Ontario Labour Market Monitor
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RESEARCH REPORT [Dave Plumstead, Research Analyst] [Jean-Guy Belzile, Manager, Emergency Medical Services This report includes two updates on population /dwellings and labour force: 1. POPULATION and PRIVATE DWELLING UPDATE – NIPISSING DISTRICT, 2011 On February 8 2012, Statistics Canada released the population and dwelling counts from the 2011 census. A full report on these two variables will be forthcoming to the Board. In the meantime, this report offers a brief overview of the data. The population and dwelling counts are the first data release from the 2011 census of population. The remaining census variables and release dates are as follows: Age and Sex: May 29, 2012 Families, Households, Marital Status: September 19, 2012 Structural type of dwellings: September 19, 2012 Language: October 24, 2012 Unless stated otherwise, the data in this part of the report has been sourced from: Statistics Canada. 2012. Population and dwelling counts, for Canada, provinces and territories, census divisions, and census subdivisions (municipalities), 2011 and 2006 censuses (table). Population and Dwelling Count Highlight Tables. 2011 Census. 2. LABOUR FORCE UPDATE – NORTHERN ONTARIO, JANUARY 2012 The past monthly Board reports have included information and data from the Northeast Labour Market Monitor (LMM) which is produced by Service Canada. However, starting in October 2011, the Labour Market Monitor underwent change and it no longer includes the “Labour Force Trends” section specific to the Northeast. Instead, unemployment rates for the economic regions are now included in the Ontario Labour Market Bulletin and the analysis is at a broader level for Ontario’s 11 economic regions. The analysis in the trends section of the Northeast Labour Market Monitor was based on monthly data from the Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey. This data is now available (free of charge) through the Statistics Canada CANSIM database.1 To provide the Board with a labour force update at the regional level, the unemployment and participation rates for Ontario’s 11 Economic Regions are presented along with a brief description of the data. When viewing the labour force data for Northern Ontario it is important to keep the geographical perspective in mind. Northern Ontario accounts for 88% of Ontario’s land area but only 6% of the population. Thus the aggregated unemployment and participation rates for the Northern regions may not accurately reflect the various sub-regional labour market conditions across the North. Unless stated otherwise, the data in this part of the report has been sourced from: Statistics Canada. CANSIM Table 282-0054 - Labour force survey estimates (LFS), by provinces and economic regions based on 2006 Census boundaries, 3-month moving average, unadjusted for seasonality. 1 CANSIM is Statistics Canada’s national socioeconomic database. 1 1. At a Glance: Population and Dwellings, Nipissing District 2011 Nipissing District’s 2011 census population is 84,736 people which represents 0.6% of Ontario’s population (12,851,820). This represents a population change of 48 people (0.05%) since the last census count in 2006. In addition to population counts, this first census data release includes the number of “private dwellings” which provides insight into household growth.2 Based on the 2011 census, there are 36,145 private dwellings in Nipissing District which is up 3.5% from the 2006 count of 34,928 dwellings.3 So household growth in the district continues to outpace population growth as noted in past DNSSAB studies and reports. Although the composition of the district’s 2011 population and households is not yet known, one might speculate that a significant trend continues to drive this household growth: more people are living alone (increase in single households). 1.1 Population: Nipissing District’s Municipalities and Areas Nipissing District’s population continues to be derived from the same 15 geographical areas as in the past. These areas are comprised of 11 municipalities, two unorganized areas and two First Nations. The table below shows the district’s 2011 sub-populations by area, in descending order starting with the largest population (note: Temagami First Nation was not enumerated in the 2011 census so there is no data available): Table 1. Population, Population, Municipality / Area, 2011 # % North Bay 53,651 63.3 West Nipissing /Nipissing Ouest 14,149 16.7 East Ferris 4,512 5.3 Mattawa 2,023 2.4 Bonfield 2,016 2.4 Nipissing Unorganized North 1,853 2.2 Nipissing First Nation 1,450 1.7 Chisholm 1,263 1.5 South Algonquin 1,211 1.4 Papineau-Cameron 978 1.2 Temagami 820 1.0 Calvin 568 0.7 Mattawan 162 0.2 Nipissing Unorganized South 80 0.1 Total 84,736 100.0 2 Statistics Canada defines private dwellings as “A separate set of living quarters designed for or converted for human habitation in which a person or group of persons reside or could reside. In addition, a private dwelling must have a source of heat or power and must be an enclosed space that provides shelter from the elements, as evidenced by complete and enclosed walls and roof and by doors and windows that provide protection from wind, rain and snow”. While this definition is different than that of a “household”, the number of private dwellings and the number of households closely approximate to each other. For example, in the 2006 census, there was a 0.2% difference between the number of “private dwellings” and the number of “households” in Nipissing District. 3 After the publication of the 2006 census dwelling counts, Statistics Canada revised the dwelling counts for Nipissing South and East Ferris. The district’s 3.5% change between 2006 and 2011 is based on the revised dwelling counts – not the original counts. See footnote # 6. 2 It is interesting to note that in terms of relative population size and share, the above table has the same order it did five years ago, except that Mattawa and Bonfield have traded places. Population composition aside, this indicates a similar geographic distribution of people within Nipissing District. 1.2 Population Change: Nipissing District’s Municipalities and Areas As mentioned earlier, Nipissing District’s population has basically remained the same over the past five years. However, the population has not remained constant across the municipalities and areas during this period – in fact, some of the municipalities and areas have experienced population growth while others have experienced decline. The following chart shows the relative population change for the district’s municipalities and areas, in order of the area with the highest growth to the area with the highest decline: Although Nipissing South4 Figure 1 Population Change in Nipissing District's and Mattawan have had the largest population Municipalities and Areas: 2006 to 2011 growth in Nipissing District 25 in relative terms, their 20 populations are very small (Table 1) so this growth 15 represents a small number 10 of people (less than 30). 5 West Nipissing’s % change 0 population has grown by 5.5% which is comparable -5 to the provincial growth -10 Calvin rate – this equates to Bonfield Mattawa Chisholm North Bay Pap.-Cam. East Ferris Mattawan -15 Temagami approximately 740 more Nipissing 10 South Algon. people living in the West Nipissing Nipissing South Nipissing North municipality. Nipissing North and Nipissing First Nation have had population growth rates of 3.1% and 2.6% respectively, for a combined total of approximately 90 people. Rounding off the district’s areas with population growth are East Ferris5 and Bonfield at 1.8% each (total of 116 people) and Mattawa at 1.0% (20 people). In terms of population decline in the district over the five-year period, Temagami experienced the greatest relative loss of -12.2% (114 people). Papineau-Cameron was next at -7.6% (80 people) followed by Calvin at -6.6% (40 people), Chisholm at -4.2% (55 people) and South Algonquin at -3.4% (42 people). While the district’s largest city – North Bay – had the smallest relative population decline of -0.6%, this translates into the largest absolute decline (315 people) in this group. 4 After the publication of the 2006 census population counts, Statistics Canada revised Nipissing South’s population downward from 571 to 67 (due to data error). The percentage change in Nipissing South’s population between 2006 and 2011 is based on the revised 2006 count – not the original count. 5 After the publication of the 2006 census population counts, Statistics Canada revised East Ferris’ population upward from 4,228 to 4,431 (due to data error). The percentage change in East Ferris’ population between 2006 and 2011 is based on the revised 2006 count – not the original count. 3 1.3 Private Dwellings: Nipissing District’s Municipalities and Areas Table 2. Dwelling, Dwelling, The Table to the left shows the Municipality / Area, 2011 # % distribution of Nipissing District’s North Bay 23,257 64.3 private dwellings in descending order, West Nipissing /Nipissing Ouest 6,021 16.6 starting with the municipality /area that East Ferris 1,699 4.7 has the largest number of dwellings. Mattawa 854 2.4 It’s not surprising that the distribution Bonfield 794 2.2 of dwellings follows that of population Nipissing Unorganized North 791 2.2 (Table 1 above), with the exception of Nipissing First Nation 587 1.6 South Algonquin and Chisholm which South Algonquin 555 1.5 have traded places. And similar to Chisholm 485 1.3 population, this indicates that the Papineau-Cameron 385 1.1 district has the same geographical Temagami 386 1.1 distribution of private dwellings as it Calvin 224 0.6 did in the past. Mattawan 75 0.2 Nipissing Unorganized South 32 0.1 Total 36,145 100.0 1.4 Private Dwelling Change: Nipissing District’s Municipalities and Areas Figure 2 As mentioned earlier, the Figure 2 Change in Number of Private Dwellings in number of private dwellings in Nipissing Nipissing District's Municipalities and Areas: District has increased by 2006 to 2011 3.5% (1,217) since 2006.