Update on North-West Syria Planning Assumptions
15 August 2018
Overview-Idleb
Total estimated Areas population Area 1 380,524 Area 2 17,449 Area 3 169,844 Area 4 425,266 Total estimated 993,083 population
Pop (HNO IDP (HNO PiN (HNO Pop Updated IDP Updated PiN Updated Areas 2018) 2018) 2018) (May 2018) (May 2018) (May 2018) Idleb, western Aleppo, Northern Hama and 2,650,019 1,158,469 1,730,637 2,987,716 1,379,629 2,095,296 Eastern Latakia Scenario 1: GoS and allies launch a large-scale military offensive against HTS and NSAGs- MEDIUM to HIGH
Description: • Large-scale military operation against NSAGs in northern Hama and south & east Idleb countryside with the aim to control the M5 highway.
Humanitarian Impact: • Displacement of about 487,000 people mainly towards northern Idleb, Afrin, Azaz, Atareb and Albab districts. • A smaller number is anticipated to go to GoS areas 70,000-100,000. The number is likely to be increased if the offensive continues for long time and evacuation corridors were identified.
Scenario 2: Negotiations between the Astana guarantors, GoS and NSAGs reach a local agreement- MEDIUM to HIGH
Description: • Local agreements may be reached starting in locations in northern Hama, eastern Lattakia and east of the M5 (areas marked as 1, 2, 3 in the map) • Inter-factional fighting may be exacerbated and spoilers of the agreements may resort to violence
Humanitarian Impact: • Displacement to north-western parts of Idleb. • Restrictions on cross-border activities. • Return movement of 150,000-200,000 to areas of origin, mainly in northern Hama.
Scenario 3: Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) and allied FSA groups launch an offensive against HTS and other Al-Qaeda affiliated groups- HIGH
Description: • Military operation against HTS and other Al Qaeda affiliated groups.
Humanitarian Impact: • up to 300,000-500,000 people could be displaced within NSAG-controlled areas as a result, mainly from Idleb city. • Increased limitations on humanitarian operations Scenario 4: Inter-factional fighting between NSAGs in Idleb and in west Aleppo countryside- HIGH
Description: • Fighting may erupt between NSAGs & HTS. • Increased tension between HTS and ISIL cells in Idleb (previously witnessed in Salqin).
Humanitarian Impact: • Displacement of about 300,000-500,000 people mainly from Idleb city. • Displacement from NSAG areas to GoS areas could reach 70,000-100,000 people. • Increased interference and restrictions on humanitarian operations
Overview- Afrin & Tall Refaat
Total estimated Areas population Fafin Area 34,360 Tall Refaat Area 74,508 Total 108,868 Scenario 1: Status Quo- High
Description: • Tall Refaat will remain under joint YPG and GoS control.
Humanitarian Impact: • Very limited movement from Afrin to Tall Refaat. • Very limited movement from Tall Refaat to NES.
Scenario 2: Agreement that allows Turkey/TAF to control Tall Refaat- LOW
Description: • Agreement between Turkey and RF reach an to hand over control of Tall Refaat (town or sub-district) to TAF/FSA or establishing a jon TAF/RF buffer zone under joint Russian- Turkish monitoring.
Humanitarian Impact: • FSA/TAF controls Tall Refaat town: Displacement of some 30,000 people to KSA/GoS areas in Fafin and surrounding areas or to NES. • FSA/TAF controls Tall Refaat enclave including Fafin: Displacement of some 90,000-100,000 people to NES. • Return of some 5,000 IDPs from Azaz to Tall Refaat.
Scenario 3: FSA/TAF offensive over Tall Refaat enclave- LOW
Description: • FSA/TAF military offensive to control over of Tall Refaat town or the whole subdistrict, including villages under Kurdish forces (Fafin and surrounding) or former Kurdish forces held areas (Kafr Naya, dir Jmal, Ziyaraa, etc.).
Humanitarian Impact: • Displacement of some 90,000-100,000 people to GoS areas in Nubl and surrounding area. • No access for SARC nor other humanitarian actors from within Syria. • Increase humanitarian access for XB partners. • Return of some 5,000 IDPs from Azaz to Tall Refaat.
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