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The Baloch Movement: a Study of Ethno-Nationalist Conflict

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The Baloch Movement: a Study of Ethno-Nationalist Conflict The Baloch Movement: a Study of Ethno-nationalist Conflict by Ali Qasim Khaliq Kareemi A thesis submitted to the Faculty of Graduate and Postdoctoral Affairs in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in Political Economy Carleton University Ottawa, Ontario © 2018, Ali Qasim Khaliq Kareemi Abstract The Baloch movement is a diffuse and splintered ethno-nationalist movement oriented against the Pakistani state and broadly aimed at attaining political autonomy for Baloch peoples. This project traces the history of the Baloch movement, assessing how key variables have played out at local, state and international levels and affected the movement’s evolution. A complex Baloch ethnicity built on a fractious tribal social base, a fluctuating supply of resources, broader state and international politics and actors, and a colonial legacy that manifests through a power-centralizing Pakistani state are all key factors that have affected the evolution of the Baloch movement. This project contributes to literature on ethno-nationalist conflict by emphasizing how these factors must be dynamically assessed together at local, state, and international levels in order to explain how ethno-nationalist movements evolve. ii Acknowledgements This project owes much to my thesis supervisor Professor Gopika Solanki. Professor Solanki’s insightful guidance and unwavering support have been fundamental to this project’s success. I would also like to thank Donna Coghill, Administrator of the Institute of Political Economy, for keeping myself and so many of us students on track. Donna’s care and concern for the students in the Institute of Political Economy and her warm demeanour made the institute a wonderful place to learn. I would also like to thank Professor Cristina Rojas, Professor Jeremy Paltiel, and Professor Richard Mann for their contributions to my education and as members of my thesis committee. I thank my parents Mani and Fauzia Kareemi, and my partner Ellen Hrinivich (and my pup Zelda) for their unending encouragement as well as their patience and caring support. I also owe thanks to my extended family and my friends who never hesitate to help when they can. Finally I wish to acknowledge the important role played by my grandparents who played active roles in the birth of Pakistan. Their open discussions of and work in Pakistani politics and society opened my mind to a world of politics at a very young age. That interest has guided me in so many of the directions I have taken in my own life including this project. Thank you, Qasim Kareemi iii Table of Contents Abstract .............................................................................................................................. ii Acknowledgements .......................................................................................................... iii Table of Contents ............................................................................................................. iv List of Tables .................................................................................................................... vi List of Appendices ........................................................................................................... vii 1 Chapter: Introduction ................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Literature Review ......................................................................................................... 3 2 Chapter: Analytical Framework ............................................................................. 33 2.1 Research Questions ..................................................................................................... 33 2.2 Theoretical Framework ............................................................................................... 34 2.3 Concepts and Definitions ............................................................................................ 41 2.4 Methods ...................................................................................................................... 54 3 Chapter: An Overview of Balochistan .................................................................... 61 3.1 The Baloch People ...................................................................................................... 61 3.2 Geography .................................................................................................................. 62 3.3 Population, Ethnicity & The Census ........................................................................... 63 3.4 Economy & Energy .................................................................................................... 67 3.5 Conclusion .................................................................................................................. 70 4 Chapter: A History of Conflict ................................................................................ 71 4.1 The Birth of Balochistan: The Khanate of Kalat ......................................................... 71 4.2 The Colonial Era ......................................................................................................... 74 4.3 Pre-Partition Era: The Foundations of Modern Baloch Nationalism ........................... 77 4.4 Accession to Pakistan: The Birth of Pakistan-Baloch conflict .................................... 79 iv 4.5 The One Unit Scheme and Baloch Rebellion .............................................................. 85 4.6 Build-up of Insurgency ............................................................................................... 88 4.7 The 1973-77 Baloch Rebellion ................................................................................... 92 4.8 The 80s and 90s: a Period of Relative Stability .......................................................... 97 5 Chapter: The Recent Conflict ................................................................................ 103 5.1 The Sparks of Conflict in the Early 00s .................................................................... 103 5.2 The Death of Nawab Akbar Bugti: Moderate turned Martyr .................................... 107 5.3 Continuing Violence & the 2008 Federal Elections .................................................. 113 5.4 Federal Government Changes but the Pattern Continues .......................................... 119 5.5 2013 Elections & a Decline in Violence ................................................................... 128 5.6 Revenue-Sharing, Energy Crisis & the Pak-Iran Pipeline ......................................... 134 5.7 Gwadar Port & the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor ............................................ 138 5.8 India: A Phantom Menace or an Easy Scapegoat? .................................................... 144 5.9 2018 Elections: Prolonged Civilian Rule and a Prolonged Conflict .......................... 148 6 Chapter: Conclusion ............................................................................................... 152 6.1 Policies & Prospects: A Separate State or a Seat at the Table ................................... 152 6.2 Conclusion ................................................................................................................ 157 Appendices ..................................................................................................................... 162 Appendix A ........................................................................................................................... 162 Bibliography .................................................................................................................. 165 v List of Tables Table 1: Pakistan versus Balochistan Population (PBS 1998, and PBS 2017) ................. 64 Table 2: Percentage of Households by Language Spoken and Areas: 1981 (PBS 1998, Provincial Studies: Balochistan) ....................................................................................... 64 vi List of Appendices Appendix A…………………….…….…………………………………………………162 vii 1 Chapter: Introduction The Baloch ethno-nationalist movement can be understood to be a broad and splintered ethno-nationalist movement, made up of many Baloch tribes who often have different aims and methods ranging from active political participation in the federalist Pakistani system to armed guerilla warfare aimed at securing an autonomous and independent state. The movement is broadly built on an idea of Baloch ethnicity, but it is far from a homogeneous movement. A diverse and factious feudal tribal social base, a fluctuating supply of resources, broader state and international politics and actors, and a colonial legacy that manifests through a power-centralizing Pakistani state are all key factors that have affected the evolution of the Baloch movement. The various ways these factors have exercised influence on the Baloch movement can be understood by tracing over the history of conflict in Balochistan. When assessing these factors on local, state, and international levels, it becomes apparent that the movement has been stronger when there is a wealth of local level support, with Baloch tribal and political leaders pooling resources and coordinating their actions in opposition to the Pakistani state. The centralizing tendencies of Pakistan’s federal government have kept it steadily in opposition to the broad Baloch movement, but various tactics by state leaders with short reigns has resulted in an
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