A History of the Future David J. Staley
History and Theory,Theme Issue 41 (December 2002), 72-89 ? Wesleyan University 2002 ISSN: 0018-2656 A HISTORYOF THE FUTURE DAVIDJ. STALEY ABSTRACT Does history have to be only about the past? "History"refers to both a subject matterand a thoughtprocess. That thoughtprocess involves raising questions, marshallingevidence, discerningpatterns in the evidence, writing narratives,and critiquingthe narrativeswrit- ten by others. Whatever subject matter they study, all historians employ the thought process of historicalthinking. What if historianswere to extend the process of historicalthinking into the subjectmat- ter domain of the future?Historians would breach one of our profession's most rigid dis- ciplinarybarriers. Very few historiansventure predictions about the future, and those who do are viewed with skepticism by the profession at large. On methodological grounds, most historiansreject as either impractical,quixotic, hubristic,or dangerousany effort to examine the past as a way to make predictionsabout the future. However, where at one time thinking about the future did mean making a scientifical- ly-based prediction,futurists today arejust as likely to think in terms of scenarios.Where a predictionis a definitive statementabout what will be, scenarios are heuristicnarratives that explore alternativeplausibilities of what might be. Scenario writers, like historians, understandthat surprise,contingency, and deviations from the trend line are the rule, not the exception; among scenario writers, context matters.The thought process of the sce- nario method shares many features with historical thinking. With only minimal intellec- tual adjustment,then, most professionally trainedhistorians possess the necessary skills to write methodologicallyrigorous "historiesof the future." History, according to Kevin Reilly, is both a noun and a verb.' By this Reilly means that "history" refers to both a subject matter-a body of knowledge-and a thought process, a disciplined habit of mind.
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